Way back in Spring Training... There were several questions that should have been on every A's fans mind.

How will the young starters hold up?

Who will be the young starters anyway?

Is the bullpen going to be okay?

How will the defense work out?

Will the offense be any better?

Those questions, and their answers, lead to a new perpsective on our current plight as A's fans.

So let's take em question by question:

Will the young starters hold up? Who will be the young starters anyway?

Old Assumption: We could expect for Eveland, Braden and the Duke to be a league average trio. Cahill, Mazzaro, Anderson, Gonzalez, WIlliams, Outman etc. would have to make up 2/5ths of the rotation and would make or break the season.

Where we stand currently: Duke is DL'd, Braden has been doing alright despite a FIP that suggests his ERA is about 2 runs too low and walking only 6 less than he has k'd in 30 innings. Eveland was the opposite of Braden, he had a FIP that suggested he was pitching much better than his ERA but after the weekend the FIP is doing it's best to catch up.

So we have Anderson, Cahill and Outman (and maybe Gio very soon) to monitor.

Keith Law declared Anderson MLB ready back in Spring Training. His FIP and ERA agree he is a 5 runs a game kind of guy. We can debate if that meets the definition of "ready" or not.

Cahill has been wildly uneven... His FIP suggests his 4.5 ERA is too low, he has taken a no hitter into the late stages, he has been knocked around to the tune of 7 runs in 2 and 2/3rds innings... Sort fo expected for a "high up side" but young pitcher.

Outman, who seemed like an after thought when he was named the fifth starter, is performing better than I expected.

Conclusion: I expect that Gio Gonzales is about to take Dana Eveland's rotation spot. First, it doesn't ruin the 4 lefties and a righty theme the A's appear to be striving for. Second, Bobby Geren appeared to be hinting this in his statement that Eveland will be "reassessed" after coming out of the pen this weekend. So when the Duke comes back, who vacates his role? Personally, I'd like to see Trevor Cahill work on his control in Sacramento... These two changes (subtract Eveland and Cahill, add Duke and Gio) replaces FIP's of 5 and 6.3 with FIP's we could expect to be 3.8 and 5. This would be only a slight improvement so we can probably expect any changes to result in one less game a week with a crooked number hanging in the bad guys line scores.

Is the bullpen going to be okay?

Old Assumption: With the potential for so many young pitchers in the rotation, the bullpen will be throwing a ton of innings. The back end is good with Devine and Ziggy but, beyond that, depth is a problem. Billy Beane saw this coming and upgraded by sign and trade.

Where we stand currently: One of the two coclosers won't pitch this season. A relative unknown made the squad out of Spring Training and has been lights out to offset that loss. Michael Weurtz has been a refreshing change. Springer is doing alright, Casilla has looked good (but is now hurt) All in all, the bullpen has done pretty well... although the innings have been A LOT... 90 innings out of a total of 208 for the entire staff.

Conclusion: It is probably not fair to expect the pen to keep pitching well if they are going to be asked to pitch something like 40 to 45% of the total innings. The only way this could even be sustainable is to keep shuttling guys up from Sacramento to pitch way too much for a month and then send them back to recuperate... Oh the joys of Organizational depth. The real solution is for Duke to come back and throw more than 5 innings a start, combined with the other guys getting deeper into games. Maybe that is too much to ask at this juncture? If it isn't too much to ask, I like where the bullpen can take the team with 3 innings a game and Bailey, Ziggy, Springer, Weurtz, et al.

Will the defense work out?

Old Assumptions: With Giambi in the fold and at first, Cust will be playing the outfield a bunch. Sweeney will be playing out of position. Cabrera and Ellis will be one hell of a double play tandem, Chavez is back at third but who knows how well he will play. Garciaparra helps provide stability behind Giambi and Chavez...

Where we currently stand: I have to sort of chuckle as I think about the infield at the end of the game yesterday, Crosby at first, Hannahan at third. At least Cabrera is saving runs at short instead of Crosby giving them away. Sweeney has been better than I thought in center field, and not just because of the two highlight reel plays this week. A plus 19 in Center Field isn't the hackness I expected (obvious small sample size warning inserted here).

Conclusion: With Ellis, Chavez and Garciaparra out and Giambi creaking it is really hard to guess where this is headed. Hannahan may well be better than Chavez was. The real trouble will be at second base. I can't imagine Petit, Patterson and Crosby playing as well as Ellis. Patterson seems like his nickname should be "Clank" when he is wearing a glove and standing near second base and Petit was great at second/horrid at short last year in limited appearances.

Jack Cust really bites in the outfield. It ain't changing.

Will the offense be any better?

Old Assumptions: Holliday, Giambi and a lack of Crosby, Hannahan means a bump in the team OPS. Add in a healthy Chavez and the spot starts for Garicaparra and scoring runs won't be an issue.

Where we stand: Despite the recent evidence of a thaw, the bats have been frozen for most of the season. The A's team offense has scored the fewest runs in the American League.

Conclusion: This is another area, like the infield defense, where judgment should be reserved. The team was built to score runs with power and none of the guys we can all reasonably expect to hit home runs and doubles have done much. Holliday, Giambi and Cust all seem poised to start swinging it. If they haven't done more than show signs by the end of May, ugh.

In summary, we should all take the approach I have heard credited to Jon Schuerholz and break the season into thirds. The first third to see what you got, the second to look around and make changes, the third to go for it. We are halfway through the first thrid and I think we can all only reasonably say that the starting pitching needs to get a lot better in order for the A's to compete. Those other questions, the bullpen, the defense, the power... they all are likely to be okay but are still in the process of answering themselves. I am not ready to lock myself in the closet and listen the the Shins for the rest of the season quite yet, but I am also not ready to be excited. How about all of you?