GOG 2009 #09

by colin on May 4, 2009 8:37 AM PDT

So yeah, there was some game yesterday that maybe lasted a lot of innings or something. But I'm not even thinking of that, because I am just so excited about this Oakland A's team and their impending sweep of the Angels in a little two-game series. Time for a positive mojo GOG!

New GOG feature -- The Dumbness of Crowds!

Back before the season started, a whole bunch of you (and me too) weighed in with our predictions for the 2009 season in GOG #00. I don't get to score those responses until the end of the season (well, I guess I could go ahead and give -1 to everyone who picked Devine to be the A's saves leader), but I might as well do something with that big lump of data. The title of this feature refers to the Wisdom of Crowds, which is the idea that a large group of independent, but not necessarily expert, predictions can be aggregated to achieve a more accurate prediction. In the realm of baseball statistics, Tom Tango is known for using this method to make estimates of playing time or defensive ability. Of course, the readership of Athletics Nation is extremely unsuited for a Wisdom of Crowds type analysis, given our rather large bias. Hence the name I chose…

Anyway, I figured that it would be good to throw together some graphs, summarizing various predictions, their correlations, and so on. These will be posted irregularly to the fANshots section whenever I make a new one. If nothing else, they will be good for a laugh at how misguidedly optimistic we were back then.

Dumbness of Crowds fANshots

Predictions for the AL West standings -- as of right now, this one is pretty much completely backwards

GOG #09 :: Let's Stay Positive, People! (17 points possible)

Two game series vs. Los Angeles Angels -- May 4 and 5

Update -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-0 LAA... barf
Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] No
We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 7 IP / 1 ER / 1 BB
Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 0 times
The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don't even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A's score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] Angels pen allows 2 runs
We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he's not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope

Ok, that's a short GOG for a short series. Your answers are due by 7:05. Start guessing!

Results

Ok, so all of our GOG results were just as bad as that series. Maybe I shouldn't have pushed the optimism angle. There were six questions in this mini-GOG, but only two of them were really in play. That's because no one predicted an Angel's sweep, no one though that Loux would last as long as 7 innings, walk as few as 1 batter, or allow only 1 run, no one predicted Petit to suffer total offensive futility (seriously, can you get a worse line over two games than 0-7 with 1 K and 2 GIDP?), and everyone was correct in predicting that Scoscia wouldn't get tossed (I knew when writing the questions that this one would be a gimme. But also, what did he have to argue about in that series? Maybe complaining to the umpire that he had been told his opponents would be a Major League team?). So everyone's score came down to whether or not they though Ziggy would get a save and then two people guessed correctly that the A's would score two runs off of the Angel's pen. So yeah, that sucked.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 0.611111 points
standard deviation = 1.17784 points
mode = 0 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Ok, I sounded pretty unenthusiastic in the paragraph above, but I don't want to take anything away from gigglingone, who easily takes the GOG #09 title. Actually, congratulations are due to everyone who had a score greater than zero. You got infinity times more points than the rest of us put together!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
gigglingone	1	5	4	33	16	31	0.130
SoCal As Fan	2	3	7	17	45	12	0.194
JLeverenz	3	2	9	12	52	24	0.173
NateHST		2	9	7	58	14	0.193
diehardoaklandfan22		2	9	10	54	19	0.179
elephantbaseball		2	6	12	52	3	0.263
train80		2	8	9	57	8	0.213
streetfan		2	9	6	59	11	0.196
nateh37		2	7	23	39	23	0.174
nevermoor	10	0	9	2	70	5	0.233
doctorK		0	9	14	51	25	0.169
swatnick		0	9	3	67	7	0.223
FormerHuntsvilleStar		0	5	26	33	9	0.210
MaineAthletic		0	7	17	45	13	0.193
DCinWC		0	8	25	35	30	0.132
oblique		0	9	10	54	19	0.179
whiteshoes40		0	3	35	12	29	0.140
crb29		0	7	22	40	22	0.176
A'sfaninNC		0	8	21	43	27	0.166
zaniac75		0	9	1	83	2	0.276
colin		0	9	7	58	14	0.193
Kimberly		0	6	30	25	34	0.125
adragon		0	5	29	28	17	0.181
roscoe		0	9	23	39	32	0.130
ZeroIndulgence		0	7	19	44	16	0.190
mikeA		0	9	5	61	10	0.203
fruitattack		0	6	31	20	35	0.107
Angry Sean		0	9	15	50	26	0.166
Athletix Man		0	5	28	30	18	0.180
jeffro		0	4	32	18	28	0.150
pam5981		0	1	36	0	36	0.000
Rated-R Superstar		0	4	34	15	33	0.127
jpl		0	4	26	33	1	0.280
jay_sensei		0	6	19	44	6	0.227
micdog2001		0	8	3	67	4	0.251
baseballnut020		0	8	16	47	21	0.177

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Comments

Bananas

   1. Split.
   2. Yes
   3. 6/4/3
   4. 4
   5. 3
   6. No

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on May 4, 2009 8:49 AM PDT reply actions

My last GOG was as bad as Geren's managing

1. 2-0 A’s (I still believe)
2. Yes
3. 5, 4, 2
4. 4
5. 4
6. No

"The glass is half full….and we are going to drown in it." - OptimistPrime

by doctorK on May 4, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions

Man

It hurts to think about the A’s after yesterday. I came back to my dorm planning on taking a nap before watching us blow it in the 9th, 12th, and 15th.

1. A’s sweep
2. Yes
3. 5/3/3
4. 2
5. 4
6. no

by swatnick on May 4, 2009 9:31 AM PDT reply actions

Yesterday stole the fun out of a GOG victory... :P

1. Split, 1-1
2. Yes
3. 5/4/3
4. 3
5. 5
6. No

What's G? Nothing but freakin' Gatorade. Geesh.

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on May 4, 2009 9:47 AM PDT reply actions

new mojo is right

1. 2-0 A’s
2. Yes
3. 4/5/3
4. 3
5. 5
6. No

by MaineAthletic on May 4, 2009 10:12 AM PDT reply actions

Ugh

   1. split
   2. yes
   3. 6/3/3
   4. 3
   5. 3
   6. no

Enjoy the game

by DCinWC on May 4, 2009 10:22 AM PDT reply actions

   1. Series outcome [3 points] Split 1-1
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 5/2/4
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 4
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] 3
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] No

by oblique on May 4, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions

Optimistic (and hopefully correct) answers.

   1. 2-0 A’s
   2. Yes
   3. 6/3/4
   4. 4
   5. 4
   6. No

by whiteshoes40 on May 4, 2009 10:51 AM PDT reply actions

Stupid Angels

   1. Series outcome 2-0 A’s
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? No, because the A’s are going to thrash ’em!
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB 5/4/3
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? 3 times
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? 6 runs
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? No

I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra

by JLeverenz on May 4, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions

1. 1-1
2. No
3. 5/4/4
4. 3
5. 4
6. No

by NateHST on May 4, 2009 11:06 AM PDT reply actions

   1. Series outcome [3 points] 2-0 A’s
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] yes
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 6/3/4
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 4
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] 6
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] no

Never mind the stress here's the Dank ~RIP~Justin Huff

by crb29 on May 4, 2009 11:12 AM PDT reply actions

Rally GOG time

1. 1-1 split
2. Yes
3. 6/4/3
4. 4
5. 3
6. No

Bad spellers of the world untie.

by A'sfaninNC on May 4, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions

BAH

1.2-0 A’s
2. yes
3.6/3/3
4.2
5.4
6.no

"Macha hates you"- Tacoma fans heckling Kielty

by zaniac75 on May 4, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions

optimism

A’s sweep
yes
4.1 IP / 6 ER / 4 BB
Petit starts both games, gets on base 4 times
A’s score 4 off the LAA pen
no

by colin on May 4, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions

I remembered this time

1-1 split
Yes
4.2 / 5 / 5
3
4 runs
No

by Kimberly on May 4, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions

I hate the Angels

1-1
Yes
6/2/4
2
2
No

"Chlorophyll?! More like bore-ophyll!"

by SoCal As Fan on May 4, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

   1. 1-1
   2. No
   3. 5/3/4
   4. 2
   5. 2
   6. No

There's no crying in baseball!

by gigglingone on May 4, 2009 12:08 PM PDT reply actions

I hate the Angles more

1. Series outcome [3 points] We sweep of course A’s 2-0
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 4/4/3
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 5
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] 4
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] No

serious as a fart in a spacesuit - spectr17

by adragon on May 4, 2009 12:26 PM PDT reply actions

1. 1-1
2. Nay
3. 5/3/3
4. 2
5. 3
6. No

You know things are bad when Bobby Crosby doesn't have the lowest batting average of any starter, yet he's hitting .138. Yes, you're 2009 Oakland Athletics.

by UOSportsDude on May 4, 2009 12:36 PM PDT reply actions

1. 2-0 A’s
2. Yes
3. 6/4/4
4. 4
5. 4
6. No

by roscoe on May 4, 2009 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

Man, I really hate teams from Anaheim...

1. 1-1
2. Yes
3. 5/4/3
4. 2
5. 4
6. No

Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!

by ZeroIndulgence on May 4, 2009 12:59 PM PDT reply actions

   1. Series outcome [3 points] 1-1
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, if wrong] yes
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 6/4/3
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 1
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? 3
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, 1 if wrong] no

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on May 4, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions

BLARGH

1. 2-0 A’s
2. Yes
3. 6/4/3
4. 4
5. 5 runs
6. No

by fruitattack on May 4, 2009 2:02 PM PDT reply actions

1. 1-1
2. No
3. 5.1 IP/ 4 ER/ 3 BB
4. 3
5. 6
6. No

by elephantbaseball on May 4, 2009 2:33 PM PDT reply actions

1. 1-1 Split
2. Yes
3. 6IP/ 3ER/ 2BB
4. 3
5. 4 runs
6. No

by Angry Sean on May 4, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions

Can't believe I missed the last one...urgh

1. Split
2. No
3. 6/3/3
4. 3
5. 3
6. No, but he’ll look like a tool on many occasions.

by train80 on May 4, 2009 3:06 PM PDT reply actions

1.1-1
2. Yes
3. 4/5/4
4. 3
5. 3
6. No

by Athletix Man on May 4, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions

How long can I gete verything wrong?

   1. A’s sweep
   2. Yes
   3. 4ip/4er/4bb
   4. 3
   5. 4
   6. no

by jeffro on May 4, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions

what the hell

1. 1-1
2. Yes
3. 4/4/3
4. 5
6. No

Nico: Okay. We have twelve hours to make a really big pickle.

by pam5981 on May 4, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions

annnd

missing #5
5. 5

Nico: Okay. We have twelve hours to make a really big pickle.

by pam5981 on May 4, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

1. 2-0, Athletics
2. Yes
3. 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 BB
4. Four
5. Five
6. No

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on May 4, 2009 3:43 PM PDT reply actions

GOG 9

1. 2-0 A’s
2. Yes
3. 5/3/3
4. 3
5. 3
6. No

Say something funny.

by muffinpryde on May 4, 2009 4:33 PM PDT reply actions

   1. A’s 2-1
   2. yep
   3. 5/3/4
   4. 5
   5. 6
   6. sadly, no

by jpl on May 4, 2009 5:05 PM PDT reply actions

Sorry...thought it was a 3 game series

A’ 2-0

by jpl on May 4, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Let's go Oakland!

Two game series vs. Los Angeles Angels — May 4 and 5

Series outcome Split
Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? No
We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB 5.5IP/2ER/3BB
Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? 3
The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? 4
We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? no, unfortunately

by streetfan on May 4, 2009 6:25 PM PDT reply actions

OMG, I won last time

Too bad my head exploded from last night’s terrible game :(

by streetfan on May 4, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions

gyeah

1. 1-1
2. yes
3. 6/4/3
4. 3
5. 4 runs
6. No

Thanks Colin! And that’s so cool what you’re doing with the #00 data :D

by jay_sensei on May 4, 2009 6:53 PM PDT reply actions

Almost missed this one too. good thing a put a reminder in my phone

Series outcome 2-0 A’s
Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? Yes
We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB 6IP/4ER/3BB
Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? 2
The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? 3
We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? no

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on May 4, 2009 6:54 PM PDT reply actions

   1. Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 A’s
   2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] No
   3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 5/4/3
   4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 4
   5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] 5
   6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] No

by nateh37 on May 4, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions

Late by 5 minutes... Go A's!

1. Series outcome [3 points] A’s Sweep
2. Ziggy is no longer sick! Does he get a save in the series? 1 if right, -1 if wrong] Yes
3. We get to face some dude named Loux! Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 5 IP / 6 ER / 4 BB
4. Petit has an OPS of 1.000! How many times does he get on base in the series? [3 points] 3
5. The Angels bullpen is the worst in the AL, with a 7.66 ERA! (and they don’t even have Russ Springer!) How many runs do the A’s score off of the LAA pen? [3 points] 4
6. We many all want to FIRE GEREN NOW!, but at least he’s not Mike Scoscia! Does Scoscia get ejected for arguing during the series? [1 if right, -1 if wrong] No, but he’s still a fat turd

by baseballnut020 on May 4, 2009 7:10 PM PDT reply actions