Eyeball-Scout: What's For Real And What Isn't With Starting Pitchers

by Nico on May 21, 2009 7:40 PM PDT Comment 81 comments

"Come on! Cahill's missing the corner by maybe this much - you can't give him a break?"

First of all, I know some readers like my "eyeball analysis" and some readers abhor my "eyeball analysis," so let me just say that the fact I do not support my eyeball analyses with stats is not to suggest that those stats don't matter. There are writers who are really skilled at finding, and interpreting, various metrics and I offer a skill that is neither better nor worse, neither more or less legitimate - just different, distinct, and thus hopefully another set of ideas to ponder.

OK, now I've run out of time. Good night. No seriously, regarding some of the A's starting pitchers, a few stray thoughts - which come neutered but not vaccinated:

Josh Outman - I have expressed concern that Outman cannot sustain success as a starter because his fastball lacks great movement and he does not have good control overall. Are his most recent 4 starts for real? I say, "sort of."

What has impressed me is that Outman's changeup looks better and better, to where I believe it is a plus pitch to go with a solid slider and high-velocity fastball. However, what has really allowed Outman to excel lately is that he has been able to throw a lot of quality strikes, and I am dubious as to whether he has suddenly mastered control (not something that often happens) as compared to the notion that perhaps he has had a nice run of unusually good control, allowing him to have an unusually good month.

Dallas Braden - Personally, I think Braden is for real. His success starts with what I consider to be one of the single key skills and that is the ability to command his fastball. Braden is doing what a pitcher wants to do: He is able to spot his fastball early in the count, get ahead, and then work hitters by changing speeds and working both sides of the plate.

How important is "fastball command"? Braden 2009 is actually very similar to Greg Smith 2008, only with the ability to command his fastball.

Sure I'd like to see more strikeouts, and his reliance on fly balls means there will be some HRs, and those shortcomings will prevent Braden from being the #1 in any good rotation. I think Braden's true ability is as a strong #3, maybe a weak #2, which is about what Joe Blanton was for the A's. Not bad.

Brett Anderson - Forget about potential, I think Anderson is the A's second best starter right now. I see him as having every bit the potential to be a #1 starter if he stays healthy. His slider, the last two starts, has been pretty wicked and when you start with a 93MPH fastball you can spot on either side of the plate, you're in good shape.

One observation I would throw in, though, is that Anderson appears to me to have better command from the windup than he has off the stretch.

Trevor Cahill - Cahill is this year's Eveland 2008 and Kennedy 2007. Look at the number of baserunners, not the ERA, and you'll see why Cahill is a ways from turning the corner.

Obviously, fastball command is not there - to the point where like Eveland, Cahill really has no idea where a given pitch is going. Equally troubling is how unimpressive the offspeed stuff has been, to the point where I can't figure out how Cahill put up such good strikeout numbers in the minors. Sure, A and AA hitters will chase pitches major league hitters won't chase, but the offspeed pitches Cahill is throwing right now aren't going to get A or AA hitters chasing or missing.

An additional concern I have, because I still like Cahill as a prospect long-term, is that his motion looks to me like it puts a lot of stress on his shoulder. I remember that Driveline Mechanics rated him fairly low, but not terrible, in terms of injury risk. I worry that as easy as Anderson's mechanics are, Cahill's are anything but fluid or low stress. Just something to watch.

So there's some of my "quickie thoughts," based purely on watching and trying to observant as I can be. Your thoughts?

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SP

Outman has been superb lately because he has been locating all of his pitches well. He reminds me of Mark Buerhle when he’s on, as does Dallas Braden. Anderson is on top of his game when he gets ahead in the count and throws strikes. When he gets behind he labors and then gives up a jack. One thing I can say about Anderson, is he’s been around the plate a lot more once his blister issue cleared up.
Overall the A’s really dropped the ball on acquiring a veteran or two to surround the younger pitchers throughout the season. Really couldn’t have hurt. I like Outman, but there’s no in depth scouting report on him. Wait until he makes 10 starts or so and we’ll see what kind of adjustments are made…

by DoomandGloom on May 21, 2009 8:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Buerhle is a poor comparison

Out of the 488 pitchers who have pitched this year Buerhle throws the 27th slowest average fastballs in the big leagues (and this includes Nick Swisher). Outman throws the 25th hardest out of all big league pitchers and is the third hardest throwing lefty. The do not comp well.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's kind of funny that for the time being, Outman has gone from someone...

…I didn’t want to see on the mound at all unless it was in a blowout to the starter I have the most faith in at the moment, with Braden a close second. Anderson seems like he’s beginning to get settled in better but Cahill still has a ways to go. Both would benefit from some time in Sacramento, though. Eveland is nothing to me until he learns better command and keeps it. Right now, Gallagher and Gonzalez don’t even rate consideration.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on May 21, 2009 8:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Brett Anderson can be a #1.

Anderson has shown the potential to be a #1. He has the ability to get a groundball and be a strikeout pitcher. He can be better than the good Mulder as long as he improves. Cahill needs to be more consistent with his sinker. For him to be a top of the rotation starter he needs to have a groundball rate over 3. He also needs to improve his changeup like Greg Maddux did to be the pitcher the A’s think he can be. I have been disappointed in his curve. The A’s should think about letting Cahill refine his game in the minors Once Duke comes back and Mazzaro stays hot at AAA. Outman can be a bottom of a rotation pitcher. Braden can be a #3 also. Especially in the Coliseum.

by Tbone 1 on May 21, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's why a veteran #2, like Derek Lowe, would have been so sweet

to add for the next 3-4 years. I understand not wanting to pay $15mil/year for him; it’s just a shame there weren’t similar options the A’s could explore a little more affordably.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 21, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What does this mean?

Your statement is the equivalent of saying I wish we could trade for Pujols without gutting the farm. Everyone in baseball wants a solid reliable veteran #2 which is why they are expensive. You cant say man I wish we signed a free agent #2 and yet not want to pay for it.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, you can.

I hate this attitude of “you can’t say that”. Why not? I wish I had a new Lexus but I don’t want to be $40K in debt. I can’t say that?

I wish Nick Swisher were still an Oakland A. I wish All-Star voting weren’t a stupid popularity poll. I wish I could easily attend games at the Coliseum while still living in Seattle.

I wish that people wouldn’t restrict conversation by saying you can only make certain formulaic assertions backed by the right kind of data.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on May 22, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point is that the cost is inseperable from the entity.

When talking about what should have been done in the offseason saying that you want all the benefits but none of the costs is not helpful.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, you can say it

If the A’s hadn’t traded for Holliday and signed Cabrera, the team might have traded for a lower priced veteran outfielder and signed Lowe.

by richwol1 on May 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No,

You cant say sign a good # 2 FA starter but it should be cheaper than $15m a year which is what Nico did. If Nico said we should have taken the $17m we spent on Holliday and Cabrera and spent it on a #2 starter that would have been a perfectly valid opinion, though one I disagreed with.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steel caged match.

At some point this Summer, I wanna see one between you and Nico.

by Pucking Insane on May 22, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am willing to defend my statements against anyone at any time.

Ive never met Nico but I am sure if we were at a game together we would get along well. I just disagree with what seems like a vast number of things he says about baseball, which is fine, as I am sure he disagrees with what I have to say. In respect to those things Im more than happy to show why I am right (I am not saying Im always right I just find operating on the opposite assumption makes life nearly impossible).

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

First of all, you're ascribing "analysis" to a feeling

It is a shame there weren’t similar options the A’s could explore a little more affordably, even if “that’s life” and even if expressing the feeling doesn’t get the A’s closer to a solution – and sometimes a pitcher of high caliber is available cheaper due to circumstance: injury history, coming off a down year, etc. In this year’s crop there was a pretty steep drop from options like Lowe to options like Garland and Oliver Perez. I’m not a huge Gil Meche fan, but he’d fit well into the current rotation and was signed for $11mil/year. Javier Vasquez’ contract is about that too – and I very much wish the A’s had traded for him when he was available.

But it’s also a shame that the A’s can’t afford to shell out more money for the pieces they need, and it’s a shame that their ballpark/town, etc. doesn’t attract more FAs. “It’s a shame” expresses a feeling, not a point of analysis. Why do you get mad when someone expresses a feeling?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 22, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh c'mon Nico.

It was more than a feeling.

by OldhamA on May 22, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love Boston. Just not the team.

“Peace of Mind” rocks, literally and figuratively.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 22, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I always thought it was "Piece of Pie"

I’m so disappointed.

by lynnzgal on May 22, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because it isn't

It is a shame there weren’t similar options the A’s could explore a little more affordably, … sometimes a pitcher of high caliber is available cheaper due to circumstance: injury history, coming off a down year, etc.

The whole point is that you wanted a consistent pitcher who could eat good innings at a number two starter level, not someone with an injury history (who with our luck would be on the DL right now anyway) or recent suckitude.

Meche wasn’t available and Vasquez has a no trade clause that blocks him from being traded to an AL Wests teams…. so yeah we totally should have acquired them. Even if they were available the cost in prospects to acquire them would be more than 4 million dollars in value (assuming that we trade them players that accumulate more than 1 WAR per season).

As for the its only a feeling sentiment, it is just unrealistic to be disappointed that we couldn’t acquire a number two for less than the market rate. I guess what I was saying is that if your were really that disappointed suck it up. I don’t want the A’s to be the Red Soxs where they mostly make good decisions but their bone head ones get bailed out by a bunch of money. I want to root for a team whose games I can afford to go to.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 23, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're aware what the word "wish" means, right?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 23, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he said " I wish we had a real #2 starter" it would have totally been different and I would have agreed

but rather Nico said that it was a shame ( a event worthy of bringing disgrace) that we didn’t go out and get a # 2 pitcher below market rate. I don’t blame Beane for not doing that and I think it is silly to expect him to.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 23, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"not helpful"

Again, you’re trying to box the discussion into a set of rules for your meta-game.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on May 22, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but my meta-game is fun :-P

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have gotta be kidding me?

You forget Lowe’s atrocious behavior in the playoffs?
OK.
"someone “like Lowe”. You didn’t say you wanted Derek Lowe.
calmer now.

"It’s kind of like wishing one of our current players would turn into the second coming of Rickey." 67Marquez. April 28, 2009

by LongTimeFan on May 22, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we should sign Byrd.

Throw him in there with Duke, Braden Outman, and whoever stays the most consistent over the next few weeks between Cahill/Anderson.

witty remark

by dtownmbrown on May 22, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outman has the best pure stuff in the rotation.

And it’s easy to tell not only with your eyes, but from the stats. He could be really special if he puts it all together. He has (easily) the best fastball, the sharpest breaking pitch, and as noted, an improving and quality changeup. I’m not convinced the change in command is permanent, either, but I sure hope it is.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 21, 2009 9:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure I'd rate Outman's stuff, or fastball, as being better than Anderson's

At least according to the radar gun, Anderson has been hitting 93MPH consistently the last two starts, and with pretty impressive command, and his slider has been dazzling at times. Outman has the same fastball velocity but less movement or control, probably a better changeup, and both have good sliders – so it’s close, but I tend to think Anderson’s stuff is the better of the two.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 21, 2009 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson's avg fastball has been 90.8

Outman has been 93.2 — 15th highest in the MLB among starters w/ 30+ IP.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 21, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

I looked up their last starts on PitchFX, because that’s the result I figured I’d get. Anderson averaged 92.6 (and topped out at 95.5!), and Outman averaged 92.49. I wonder if Outman’s average is a wee bit inflated from his bullpen work, and if Anderson is getting stronger.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 21, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, definitely Anderson's velocity has looked better recently

I’d have guessed 89-90MPH earlier and 91-92MPH, but topping out at a legitimate 93MPH, the last two starts.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 21, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there any variation in the Pitch Fx guns from stadium

Because all of Anderson’s numbers from his last start seemed high at the time. He could just be 21 and getting a little more oomph but the announcers commented on the gun being fast in the stadium during the game.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There probably is.

Both Outman and Anderson were in the same ballpark, though, so that shouldn’t be the reason.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 23, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a more general rather than a specific inquiry

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 23, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The times I've seen them Outman seems to have more velocity

on his fastball than Anderson. Of course, that’s just one important factor, among several.

by OaklandSi on May 21, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cahill has the best pure stuff he just can't control it.

by OldhamA on May 21, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'd certainly be the other name in the conversation.

Everything he throws moves, but as you say, he doesn’t know where it’s going.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 22, 2009 6:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

im gonna go out on a limb and say he wont find the control as a member of the A's

its gonna take him 4-5 years before he finds control of all his pitches and by then, the A’s would have moved on. hes gonna be traded to someone as a throw-in and discover his control and be the next derek lowe.

The Not-So-Casual Fan

by rktse on May 22, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With how highly they rate him, not a chance.

by OldhamA on May 22, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

If you’re right, maybe we’ll find the next Albert Pujols for Trevor Cahill. I’d take it.

by Colorado Fan on May 22, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Cahill profiles more like a Hudson ...

he’s not going to strike out a ton of batters — but, once (if) he learns to control the strikezone, he’ll get so many groundballs it won’t matter. The movement on his fastball and curve are absolutely sick. When he figures out where they’re going consistently, he’ll be nasty.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 21, 2009 9:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen him get too many ground balls yet

by OaklandSi on May 21, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's ground in the right-field bleachers.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 21, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, the route the ball takes to that ground

is a little difficult for the fielders to intercept…

by OaklandSi on May 21, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I knew we were going to miss Ellis.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on May 21, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

they are all ground balls eventually

by Future Ed on May 22, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

with our defense...yes

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on May 22, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's 20th in MLB in GB% ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 22, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

your and my posts don't necessarily contradict each other

by OaklandSi on May 22, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You haven't seen many Cahill games?

Because he does get a lot of ground balls … if the point is that you haven’t seen them … that’s an odd point to make …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 22, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have seen his games in person at the Coliseum

and I was struck by how few ground balls he was getting.

Of course not all of his starts have been in the Coliseum. I’m not referring to those games, just the ones that I have seen in person – so it’s not an odd comment to make.

by OaklandSi on May 22, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well....

46% of his groundballs have come at the coliseum. So it’s not like there’s a huge discrepency between his home and away gb/fb ratio.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on May 22, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's possible that the groundball rates for most pitchers are low

so far this season. I don’t think anything you, Devo or I have written here is contradictory. I’m simply pointing out that I have not seen much in the way of ground ball outs (or even ground balls getting through the infield) from Cahill when I have seen him pitch in the coliseum.

by OaklandSi on May 22, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Likely best conclusion:

Almost every out Cahill has recorded while OaklandSi was at the concession stands or in the bathroom was probably a ground ball.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 22, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't really remind me of Hudson, because

Hudson always had both command and a full arsenal of pitches. I’d say when he comes around, Cahill will be a lot like Derek Lowe, in that he’ll be a ground ball machine “two pitch pitcher” who can just pound the knees all day.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 21, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for this, Nico. It's refreshing.

Personally, I think statistical analysis is more valuable on the whole, but the Internet seems to bring out stat-heads by the scores. It seems like we have a dozen frequent posters here who really know their stuff with the stats, plus another three dozen stat-head wannabes. Whereas there’s hardly anyone here who sees and thinks like a scout, so I always enjoy it when you give us the other view like this.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on May 21, 2009 9:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I concur

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on May 21, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Nico’s observations are the main reasons I skim through gamethreads.

by LongLiveLangerhans on May 22, 2009 2:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If stat heads live in their mother's basements

The wannabes must have an evil subterranean lair?

BTW

Cahill FIP 6.14 WPA/LI -0.55
Anderson FIP 5.52 WPA/LI -0.74
Braden FIP 4.00 WPA/LI -0.18
Outman FIP 4.47 WPA/LI 0.11

Outman’s had the only positive value to the A’s out of the group so far (counting his relief appearances and including factors he’s been unable to control, like how well his defense as performed). Overall, though, he’s pitched almost as well as Braden, and much better than Anderson or Cahill.

Gotta run, they’re closing the internet reception silo down here. Gotta eat my gruel and mend my cohort’s shoes before we all get back on the internet again.

by sleepingcobra on May 22, 2009 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think FIP is a better measure than WPA/LI

Clutch isn’t important to me which is what WPA/LI measures. The same game pitched when the A’s anemic offense actually comes together and puts runs on the board gets credited differently than a game that the offense does nothing and it stays super close. I don’t think that is fair.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No. Clutch measures clutch.

Really. There’s a stat called, “Clutch.” Read a quick description.

WPA/LI isn’t focused on just on “clutch” so much as it’s about accurately weighting different outcomes in different situations. That’s why it’s useful to look at next to FIP. FIP weights home runs a ton and doesn’t account for singles, double or triples (as I’m sure you know) so, if you pitch 8 innings, give up 2 solo homers, strike out 7 and walk 2 in a game that your team wins 6 – 2, your FIP is going be worse than someone who pitched 8 innings, struck out 7, walked 2, and gave up 37 singles and 14 doubles in a game your team lost 41 – 0.

That’s why looking at WPA/LI and FIP is better than just looking at FIP. WPA/LI will account for those 37 singles and 14 doubles, in addition to weighing a walk with the bases loaded differently from a walk with the bases empty.

by sleepingcobra on May 22, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Youre right more data is always better.

but I would just like to highlight something that you said earlier:

including factors he’s been unable to control, like how well his defense as performed

When using stats to evaluate the talent level of players I prefer using stats that lessen the variables individual players cant control.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

gio

2009 FIP 3.99

just saying

by Future Ed on May 22, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why FIP is so misleading

especially in small samples. Gio has pitched 8 innings and hasn’t given up a homer. Because FIP weights home runs so heavily (to the tune of *13), if he does even marginally well striking guys out and not walking a ton, his FIP will look gorgeous.

by sleepingcobra on May 22, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

i shouldn’t have said “especially” in small samples. i don’t think FIP is misleading overall. i think it’s misleading in small samples.

by sleepingcobra on May 22, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd agree with all of the above assesment

I’d say that Braden is our best starter right now (and has the minor league track record to show that he’s for real) followed by Outman (though there’s no way he’s as good as he’s been pitching). Anderson is OK, but his stat peripherals are a little bit worrisome (high FIP, among others). That said, I agree that he’s gonna be good. And Cahill’s got me worried, though of course he’s young and has a track record too.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on May 21, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

why are there so many outman haters?

why must his recent success be an apparition?

The Not-So-Casual Fan

by rktse on May 22, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I'm saying isn't that Outman can't be good

but rather, at this point in his career, he’s probably not 3.31 ERA good. His BABIP is a little bit too low and his FIP is currently 4.47. He’s always walked just a few too many, IMO, but overall could turn out to be a great #2.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on May 22, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

braden = smoke and mirrors

He has very little margin for error. i think he profiles as a solid back rotation guy. Also his issue has always been durability In the minors, He never pitched a large amount of innings at any level. I hope to be proven wrong, but i just dont see him as that 180-200 inning workhorse type. That said, at least braden and outman stepped up with an opportunity unlike the failures of eveland, gio, and gallagher.

by Asfan4ever723 on May 22, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Braden

HopefullyBy 20100, Braden will be the “back of the rotation guy” w/ Anderson, Cahill, Mazzaro, and 5th Starter. Personally, I think Braden is a Curt Young clone.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/Y/Curt-Young.shtml

by Colorado Fan on May 22, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully Braden isn't still pitching in 20100

bc I’m pretty sure he’d be on the DL after warmup.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on May 22, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it would be awesome if

the dallas 5000 is pitching for the A.s in 18,000 years

by Future Ed on May 22, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess my point in this post is that Braden ISN'T "smoke and mirrors"

It’s no small feat to be able to spot your fastball consistently on both sides of the plate, and he has a true plus pitch in the changeup, along with a decent cutter. He also pitches pretty well to situations, e.g., being more aggressive in the strike zone with the bases empty but not giving in with runners on base, being a threat to throw any of his pitches in any count – things Hudson was really skilled at doing.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on May 22, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The cutter is a fairly recent pitch for Braden too, right?

that, and he’s really only thrown his changeup for a couple seasons, since they told him to axe the screwball after being called up to the bigs?

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on May 22, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

geez

Hopefully by 2011…

by Colorado Fan on May 22, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And here I just thought you were being optimistic about the length of his career ...

18,000 years from now, if Braden is still pitching … he’ll probably have set a few records along the way … if nothing else, oldest player …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on May 22, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course in 18,000 years he wouldn't be playing on either the west or east coast

since both will probably be under water…

by OaklandSi on May 22, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Naah, he'll be second oldest

Jamie Moyer will also still be pitching.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on May 22, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson vs. Cahill

Anderson concerns me because he quite hittable. Doesn’t seem to have much deception or devistating movement. But the guy can throw any pitch the ball wherever he wants in any count and has great composure. The good news is that he will learn how to keep hitters off balance, that you can throw a 2-0 slider in the dirt to aggressive hitters and they will probably swing at it.

Cahill , on the other hand, concerns me because he lacks command. And there’s nothing worse as a fan than to see your pitchers beat themselves. However, unlike Anderson, Cahill is very tough to hit. Deceptive with unusual movement on his pitches that keeps hitters off balance and the ball on the ground.

Both pitchers seem to have very similar potential, they are just working to it in two different ways

by GusanoQuemador on May 22, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs