Oakland's Trade Bait: 3B Prospects (NL Edition)
In the third installment of my Oakland Trade Bait series, I'm going to be doing something a little differently. Instead of looking at who Oakland has to trade, I'm going to be looking at who Oakland wants. With last night's news that Eric Chavez's career is all but over, Oakland's problem at third base has changed from a big hole to a vast, gaping chasm.
The Carter experiment was a big failure. Other than that, it was been basically fill-ins at the hot corner for A's affiliates. Cardenas could eventually make the move, but only if Ellis is healthy and not traded, and then after that, if Jemile Weeks stays healthy and gets something out of his potential. Jason Christian and Christian Vitters are doing alright in the low minors, but neither could help Oakland right now, and neither project to be stars.
Today I will be looking at almost every 3B prospect in the National League. As a reference, I mainly used John Sickels' blog, which is a tremendous site which you should check out if you aren't already a member. I'll be looking at 3B prospects team by team, comparing their holes with our strengths, and looking at possible win/win deals.
The A's strength is obviously pitching up and down. And I mean all kinds of pitching: safe bets like Outman and Simmons, wild cards like H-Rod and Leon, and high-risk, high-reward types like Hunter and Ross. Oakland also has quite a bit of strength at 1B, with Doolittle, Carter and Barton. Second base is also a strong point, with strong prospects like Weeks and Cardenas and high quality replacement level players like Pennington and Petit.
In looking at different prospects, I'll be including where Sickels ranked them in his top 20 by team (on his website, not his book), his grade (in this case A through C, where all grades take into account risk, potential, etc.), whatever little blurbs he wrote about them on his website, and how they're doing this year.
By the way, you are forewarned. This post is a doozy.
Florida Marlins
After a hot start, the Marlins have slowed down a lot, and actually have a team BA (not that it matters) lower than the Athletics, but still find themselves just 3 GB of the division. Florida has gotten very little production out of their outfield and their second basemen. They have the fifth best FIP in baseball right now (their two best relievers have been Kiko Calero and Dan Meyer!), so pitching isn't really a huge problem.
I don't know if hte Marlins would be willing to take on a contract like Holliday's, but he would put them right back in the NL East race. One thing the Marlins don't have, though, is a lot of quality pitching prospects, so a swap might be possible.
3) Matt Dominguez (B+) - "Close to an A-, impressive power with steller glove, but have some concerns about his plate discipline." Dominguez has hit well at home, in a hitter's park, but not very well on the road. He's struggling this year at A+, OPSing just .597. Perhaps a Mazzaro or Simmons for Dominguez swap?
San Diego Padres
The Padres minor league system is a lot like the Marlins, except a lot crappier. They have an awful lot of 1B and OF prospects, and not a lot of quality pitching. I find it hard to believe that the Padres would part way with any quality prospects, but they don't have any awesome 3B prospects.
19) Logan Forsythe (C+) - "Good glove, polished bat, lack of power could make him a Joe Randa type." He has shown tremendous control of the strike zone, hitting .310/.470/.484, with 34 BB against 30 K so far in A+. He's far away, but those numbers are nice. If he could develop some more power, or just keep that bat control, he could turn into a real nice prospect. Maybe a guy like Lansford or Italiano? Would they get the job done?
St. Louis Cardinals
After a quick start, the Cardinals have fallen to 3 GB of the Brewers in the NL Central. With one of the better offenses in baseball, hte pitching is what's causing them problems. Without a true closer, the Cardinals bullpen is terrible. If the Cardinals are looking for pitching help now, the A's have a lot of high level replacement relievers (guys like Cameron and Kilby), but if they want legit pitching prospects, they're probably looking at a Demel or Carignan.
St. Louis also has a pretty bad infield defense, especially at 2B with Schumaker. If they wanted to replace him with a poorer hitter, but much better defender, they'd be looking to deal for Petit or Pennington.
2) Brett Wallace (A-) - "Monster bat should be ready within a year. Glove at third should be adequate in the short run." Hitting .280/.403/.438 in 34 games at AA, but I believe he's been moved up to AAA now. I don't know if the A's would want to give up much for him if he wasn't going to stick at 3B for more than a couple of years, but he's blocked at 1B by the best player in baseball. He's not as slow as he looks; I don't know if he could play the OF, but even there, the Cards have Ludwick, Ankiel, Rasmus and Duncan.
I wonder if a prospect swap built around Cardenas+ would get the job done. He helps out as soon as this year, and Cardenas would be ready sooner in the NL, possibly helping them out by the end of the year, too. Since they need bullpen help, would you do Demel/Carignan/Leon/Gio and Cardenas for Wallace? Too much? To little?
12) David Freese (C+) - "An older prospect and plate discipline looks spotty, but he has power and a good glove at third." Apparently, Freese is injured due to a nagging ankle injury sustained in a car accident a while ago. He's appeared in 9 games for the Cardinals this year.
14) Allen Craig (C+) - "A personal favorite, could rank as high as 9 or 10 depending on crteria. I think he'll hit, though glove isn't the best and he's got a lot of competition." He's currently OPSing .659 at AAA.
With so much competition, I think a deal for Demel or Carignan might get the job done for a guy like Freese or Craig. Freese looks better (to me, anyways), even though he's older. The A's need power, and a deal like that looks to be win/win.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are just plane bad. They pitched well enough for about a four or five day stretch earlier this season, but they're back where they belong: 7 GB. All I know is we'd have to give up a truckload of talent and then some to get Alvarez, including Cahill or Anderson. The Pirates trading Alvarez isn't going to happen, but with him being the 3B of the future, they have a couple other decent 3B prospects, and need a lot of pitching help. Andy LaRoche is also an interesting name.
6) Neil Walker (C+) - "Slipping in strike zone judgement is worrisome, but he's still quite young and adapted well to third base. When Andy LaRoche gets hurt again, Walker could have a brief window of oppurtunity before Alvarez is ready." Low average, poor plate discipline, and is struggling at AAA, just like last year.
12) Matt Hague (C+) - "He always hit in college, and he's hit well as a pro, too. Will probably move to the outfield. An overlooked sleeper." I'm not sure if the move to the OF would be prompted by him sucking at 3B or the presence of Alvarez and LaRoche.
20) Jarek Cunningham (C) - "Played very well in rookie ball, strong bat, his stock had dropped pre-draft due to injury." He's very far away, and he hasn't played in 2009. He's probably not the answer to to the A's 3B problem.
Houston Astros
Quite simply, the Astros wouldu be stupid to trade away ANY of their prospects. With Jason Castro as their best prospect ranked as a B prospect, they need all the help they can get.
8) Chris Johnson (C+) - "Hasn't hit outside the Texas League. I've seen both Sutton [I'll mention him later] and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton is far more polished and skillful." He's struggling mightily in AAA so far.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a really good team right now. Even without Manny, they still have an average to good player at nearly every position (except for wherever Juan Pierre is playing), and their farm system is well-balanced, too. There really is not much they need, and with Casey Blake clearly not the long-term answer at 3B, they may be reluctant to give up their good, young third basemen.
9) Austin Gallagher (C+) - "Sleeper prospect. Needs to tighten strike zone, but I think more power will come." Still in A- ball, quite a long ways away.
15) Pedro Baez (C) - "Excellent power potential and a strong arm, but there's a 43.7% chance (to pull a number out of the air) that he is pitching four years from now. Horrible plate discipline." Sickels is right on, here. He's OPSing .789 in A+, and the OPS is very heavy in slugging. He could turn into a Pedro Feliz type player.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 6.5 games out, but have a very good rotation, and could try to make a run for it with Manny out, though I don't why. They have Pablo Sandoval right now, who looks like a possible long-term solutino at 3B. Sabean's always had an obsession with that big bat, so maybe they could make a play for Holliday? They also need 2B help.
6) Conor Gillaspie (B-) - "I ike the Midwest guys. Polished bat, will hit for average and get on base, glove needs to be more reliable, but I think it will." He hasn't hit for power at all so far, slugging just .339 with 1 HR in 58 career games in the minors.
19) Jesus Guzman (C+) - "Signed away from Oakland as a minor league free agent. I think his progress was real." He's hitting .354/.376/.578, and he would be real nice to have right now. Do you think a deal like Leon for Guzman would work out and get him back?
New York Mets
The Mets are tied with Philadelphia for first place in the NL East. They have a weak LF right now, and a deal of Holliday for a blue chip prospect could work well for both teams. The Mets also have Daniel Murphy playing LF. I remember hearing on ESPN that Murphy could be the guy that moves Wright off 3B, because his defense is so good. Obviously it's ESPN and therefore unreliable, but he hasn't played 3B at all in the majors, so I really have no idea if he would stick at 3B or not.
1) Wilmer Flores (B+) - "I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I'd pick Flores." Flores is a long ways away, but represents a high-risk/high-reward at SS/3B. He would cost a lot, and most likely acquired for a Holliday than a prospect swap.
6) Jefry Marte (C+) - "Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that's aggressive for a rookie ball guy." Marte is struggling badly in low A. He's a very long ways away, and a big risk.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies played well a couple of years ago, but haven't been able to put it together over the last couple of years. They have Ian Stewart, who has seen success but not consistent playing time. Steward could cost an ugly amount of talent, but he represents a real solution at 3B. If they keep Stewart, he's blocking their 3B prospects. The Rockies always need pitching prospects.
11) Darin Holcomb (C+) - "Excellent plate discipline. But Power and defense need to show at higher levels." Struggling quite a bit in AA after skipping A+.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central, but just lost second baseman Rickie Weeks for the season. Their pitch-to-contact staff is now in trouble, because they have to slide people over and significantly downgrade their defense. Is Cardenas too much of a stretch for them? He may not be ready quick enough. Petit and Pennington could fit.
1) Mat Gamel (B+) - "Bat is very impressive, not sure about where he fits on the roster due to defensive limitations." Game's a very interesting case. In all likelihood, he's not a 3B, he's a LF or a DH. But the Brewers already have a shitty 3B playing LF in Braun. I think he could be had, but he'd be expensive and unlikely to stick at 3B. Does the bat outweigh the D? I doubt it.
14) Taylor Green (C+) - "Solid hitter, but perhaps not enough pop to play third in the long run." There was talk that he was included in the Sabathia deal, but the Indians chose another player instead. I like him, and he wouldn't be impossible to acquire, but he's a ways away to help soon, and there are still questions about his bat.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have a lot of good young pieces and they're close to competing, but in that ballpark, their pitching could always use improvements. Some good relief prospects might be able to get talks going.
4) Neftali Soto (B) - "Very impressed with his long term potential. Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn't bad and he's very young." He seriously never walks.
7) Drew Sutton (C+) - "I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills." He is a second baseman, but he's seen time at third. He was traded to the Reds by the Astros for Jeff Keppinger. Decent idea.
10) Juan Francisco (C+) - "Enormous power potential, very young, but dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year." Sickels is right on, again. He has an OBP of less than .300 in his minor league career, but very good power.
Chicago Cubs
With Aramis Ramirez, a guy like Vitters isn't untouchable, but he would cost quite a bit. The Cubs farm system isn't really that strong right now.
1) Josh Vitters (B+) - "Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills adn still very yonug." Hitting .352/.382/.541 in Low A. He's a long ways away, but that power may finally be coming around. The Cubs will be reluctant to give him, but a good deal could be made. Maybe a guy like Mazzaro and a relief prospect? It seems like too little to me.
Washington Nationals
Really nothing there... Oakland probably could have built a huge package for Zimmerman a while ago, but he recently signed a long-term extension, so that's probably all but impossible now. He's basically all they have.
Arizona Diamondbacks
There isn't anything here, either. Of Sickels top 20, 16 of them are pitchers and 14 of those are RHP. They're pretty much looking for the same things the A's are.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have a very good infield, even if Rollins is overrated. Utley is a fixture at 2B. Feliz is what he is: a 20 HR guy with low OBP. He's consistent though. When Feliz' time is up, they may move Donald to 3B, because he doesn't sound he'll stick at SS.
4) Jason Donald (B-) - "Still doubt he has the range for SS. But I like the bat a lot. Borderline grade B?" Maybe a move to 3B would be good for him. He's struggling in AAA right now.
Atlanta Braves
Chipper's there now, but he's getting old. Even when Chippers out, the Braves seem to due alright at 3B. Their farm is a lot weaker after giving most of it up in the Teixeira deal a couple years ago.
15) Eric Campbell (C+) - "If his head is on straight, could surprise people in '09" Struggling badly in AA.
*****************************************
This pretty much sums up all the NL 3B prospects, and it confirms what I suspected. There's not a whole lot there. It's not as easy as, "Go get a good, young third baseman, but don't give up Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Cardenas or Carter." If you want a Vitters or a Wallace or an Alvarez or a Dominguez, you'll have to give up as much talent as you're getting in return.
Of those top tier prospects, very few of them are MLB ready, so patience is going to be a must. If you're pushing for Wallace, chances are, the A's will have the same problem a few years down the road, when he has to move off 3B. Alvarez is too expensive. Vitters and Dominguez are pretty far away, and will require a lot of patience.
In my opinion, the easiest guys to acquire would be Jesus Guzman or David Freese. I like Logan Forsythe, too, and don't think we'd have to give up an arm and a leg to get any of them. They're all blocked or have lots of competition, and we could likely deal from a position of strength, like a Leon or a Ross or a Demel.
Anyways, what do you gys think? I undersand that many of you want to say you're sick of Hannahan and Crosby, and want a real good prospect like Alvarez or Wallace, but are you prepared to offer up Cahill or Anderson for him?
3 recs |
125 comments
Comments
good post, lots to think about
briefly, about the Giants: many people think that Pablo Sandoval is below average at 3B. I’m wondering whether he might not get shifted to 1B. I was sorry that the A’s let Guzmán get away before we could see if he might be a keeper for 3B. I think he has been playing at 1B in AAA for the Giants, as they have someone else playing 3B. I’ve also read that he may make his big league debut this coming weekend in Seattle (replacing both Ishikawa and Aurilia at 1B). If he does come up and impresses I’m wondering whether the Giants might switch him and Sandoval at the corners.
about Brett Wallace: some think he won’t stick at 3B primarily because he doesn’t look like someone who can remain agile enough to play there, but I dont’ really know enough about how good he has been defensively. Offensively there is no question that he can hit.
by OaklandSi on May 20, 2009 3:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants corners
Not a chance of switching Guzman and Sandoval. Guzman has been a defensive project at AAA. From what I understand, his third-base playing days are behind him. He should hit enough to stick at first. Sandoval has been playing very well at third. At his point, the only reason he would shift to first is if the Giants trade for someone like Chipper Jones (just an example) that is a bonafide third baseman.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth
Sandoval’s UZR/150 at 3B has been -2.3. Last year he was good, but it was in a 12 game sample size.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and last time I checked, Dustin Pedroia was one of the worst second baseman in baseball by the numbers. Defensive stats lie grossly and often. I’ve watched Sandoval play every day. He is the Giants third baseman unless someone like Ryan Zimmerman becomes available.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is impossible that Pedroia is a bad 2Bman?
Or is your word good enough to ensure it’s true?
by ohmangoAs on May 20, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedroia looks good
because he’s small and white and balding and thus incredibly scrappy. And also because he practically lives on my television screen at ESPN. ESPN makes everybody in Boston/NY look good, but that’s a WHOLE other topic that I don’t want to get into right now.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey now ...
Mark Ellis is white and balding and not terribly large … Chase Utley is white and not terribly large, no idea how his hairline is doing, though
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He slicks it back, thus negating any scraptism he has.
Mark Ellis is pretty goddamn scrappy though. His uniform is so big on him.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He won the Gold Glove at his position. In the case of AL shortstops, perhaps a Gold Glove is a flawed award, since Derek Jeter and Michael Young have won it in recent years. Although, they are both solid, amid a field of AL shortstops where there in no one truly exceptional out there in recent years. This is not true at second base. Plenty of exceptional defenders in the AL.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gold gloves literally mean nothing.
The best defensive player at any position must have a really good offensive year to even be considered for a gold glove.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best defensive player at any position must have a really good offensive year to KEEP HIM IN THE LINEUP. Big difference.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irrelevant.
Staying in the lineup due to offense should have nothing to do with who wins a gold glove. A gold glove should go to the best defender at a certain position, but it rarely does. Mark Ellis was the best defensive second baseman last year, and should have won the award. Michael Young won one last year when he was below average at SS, and has been throughout his career. Don’t use gold gloves when trying to prove a players defensive ability.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Being in the lineup should, obviously, be a criteria ...
Rafael Palmeiro clearly did not deserve that Gold Glove …
If you don’t play, obviously, you haven’t earned it, no matter how good you may be …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well obviously there should be criteria
Like at least 75% of the season. Regardless, though, Gold Gloves are pretty much worthless in talent evaluation.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t Mark Ellis miss over 50 games last year? That puts him at less than 75%.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Michael Young won a gold glove
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
by 9Custs on May 23, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR says that Pedroia is a better than average defensive 2b ...
10.5 runs/150, 4th among 2b in MLB … Mark Ellis was first …
He also had the second best fielding percentage among 2b last season — behind only Mark Ellis
RZR had him 6th … Mark Ellis was first …
So what have we learned here today?
Mark Ellis, when healthy, is clearly really, really good defensively …
Dustin Pedroia is not as good.
Just because Dustin Pedroia is not as good, doesn’t mean he’s not good.
Way to go, it appears you were actually right in your visual assessment of Pedroia’s defense.
Sadly, your assessment of the value of defensive stats, not so right on …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I conceed I’m not a big stat cruncher, especially for defensive stats. According to someone from another board, his defensive #s from 2007 were in the bottom grouping of defensive stats. I had a debate as to whether or not Pedroia was actually a great defender. So you got me on the assessment of defensive stats … on the value of them, however, I’ve got to question anything that “shows” Pablo Sandoval to be a subpar defender in 2009. Not the case. He’s been exceptional over there thus far.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sandoval has been involved in 86 plays this season ...
any stat is going to suffer from sample size issues.
FWIW, Hardball Times’ RZR says he’s been even worse than UZR does. They seem to be saying that he doesn’t have much range …
That said, those numbers could change drastically over the course of the next 4 months …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't just assume he's been great
because he’s looked good so far. Even guys like Giambi and Cust make nice plays sometimes, but in all likelihood, an average defender would have gotten there a split second earlier and made it look like a normal play.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're assuming that you're right
and statistics are wrong. You’re assuming that Pedroia actually is a good defender just because you think he is.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those aren’t assumptions, they are educated opinions. You’re the one that is assuming that I don’t know what I’m talking about. I assure you, I do.
by StickRat on May 20, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
bwahahahahahahahahahaha
I assure you, I do.
That is assuming that he is good because you think he is.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 20, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know how the saying goes,
when you criticize something you don’t understand, you make an ass out of you.
Or something like that.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on May 21, 2009 5:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting about Sandoval/Guzman
Regarding Wallace, everything I’ve read about him has said he’s a lot quicker than he looks, but his body has to literally stay exactly where it is for him to stay at 3B. If he gains any weight, then he’ll probably have to move to first. I have no doubts about him being able to play 3B now, just about him maintaining his body in the future.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should have kept Guzman, should have drafted Wallace.... lots of mistakes in the last year.
Aside from Wallace, the guy I’d go after would be Jason Donald, who I was suggesting we acquire last year.
In a trade for Wallace, though, I would not give up Cardenas. Cardenas is going to be needed here at either 2B or 3B (if Wallace was acquired and failed to stick there). We would have to give up someone of value in a place the Cardinals need, and our excess of value is in Pitching right now. They don’t need a 1B, we don’t have any infielders available for trade, and they don’t need a Catcher. So I say send a pitcher for Wallace.
It could be a simular situation as the Twins-Rays swap of Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Perhaps Brett Wallace for either a) Vin Mazzaro and Eric Patterson or b) James Simmons, Eric Patterson, and Sean Gallagher OR Gio Gonzalez.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 20, 2009 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it would be difficult to trade for Wallace without filling their 2B hole with Cardenas
Or giving up either Cahill or Anderson.
And if Weeks is healthy, I still like that pick more than most people. He’s a 2B with a little pop, lots of speed, and lots of contact skills. I don’t even remember what it’s like to have a legitimate leadoff guy.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Send them Ellis.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on May 21, 2009 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They won't do that unless Ellis comes back and is healthy and performing.
by NateHST on May 21, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
send them Patterson
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on May 21, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is pretty terrible
We’re talking about solutions and the best we come up with is two guys who we could have had for free (minus salaries) last year.
Agreed that Donald looks most interesting. Too bad he wasn’t part of an Embree for Donald extension to the Blanton deal. That would have been a coup (not that it already wasn’t).
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on May 20, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way they make that deal.
Embree was bad last year in Oakland, probably would have been even worse in Philadelphia. The Phillies wouldn’t give up a B prospect at SS for somebody like Embree. The Phillies have terrible starting pitching right now. If we wanted to give up a guy like Gio or Gallagher, then I think that could get Jason Donald.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whole thing was, if I remember correctly, that the Phils would have added Donald for Embree added to the deal
but the A’s refused. It sounds simular to when the A’s were going to trade Ricardo Rincon for Placido Polanico with the Astros, but Macha nixed the deal (supposedly).
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 20, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, I wasn't aware of that.
That seems pretty boneheaded in retrospect. Even then, Embree was pretty bad. Was it an issue of the A’s hoping to offer him arbitration and hoping to get a better pick in the draft?
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's thought they'd get a compensation pick
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 20, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wallace and the Cards
I know that the Cards were definitely in talks with the Rockies about acquiring Holliday earlier this winter…I’m wondering if there was a possibility that a deal could be structured around the trade deadline centered around Holliday-for-Wallace.
I admit it’s kind of a longshot, but the Cards might be in a “go-for-it” mentality, especially knowing that their years with Pujols may be numbered and while they are currently right in the mix for another post-season run with their current corps they might be looking to deal.
I’m thinking that the A’s could expand the deal if, say, Ellis is back on the field by early July and showing a little offense and his trademark defense and maybe also include a servicable bullpen arm like Jeff Gray or even Casilla.
You think that’s a remote possibility?
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on May 20, 2009 4:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if the Cards would want Weeks as a medium/long-term solution at 2b...
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on May 20, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A trade that includes Weeks for Wallace would be funny.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 21, 2009 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's definitely a possibility, if they're an all-out mode
But their outfield is very crowded. Ankiel will be gone after this year, I’m not sure about Duncan or Ludwick. It seems like unless Ludwick plays RF, then you’re just replacing one 30 HR LF with another.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their primary LF this year has been Chris Duncan ...
Ludwick has played 100% of his innings in RF.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 20, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, I would never have guessed.
I’m from the Midwest, and I watch a lot of Cardinals games. I guess I have really just never seen him play. Anytime I’ve watched them, it’s been Ankiel in CF, Rasmus in RF, and I don’t know why they’d ever play Duncan over Ludwick in LF. He’s certainly not a platoon player. Thanks for the info.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters or Dominguez for me.
If we could get Posey (PTBNL) from the giants with someone else for Holliday. Posey played SS and C for Florida St. Maybe he could move to 3b.
by calas on May 20, 2009 5:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
if any Giants prospect is untouchable it's Posey
by OaklandSi on May 20, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He isn't untouchable if they want Holliday bad enough.
by calas on May 20, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be shocked if they wanted Holliday so badly
that they’d give up Posey.
by OaklandSi on May 20, 2009 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Brian Sabean would not trade Posey to Texas...
for Feliz, Holland and Smoak because he is “UNTOUCHABLE”. I guess we all value players differently.
by calas on May 20, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we are all speculating on what GMs would do, of course
but Posey was the Giants’ first pick in the draft last year, and #5 overall in the draft. He is a catcher with tremendous offensive and defensive skills. The Giants have spoken of him as a “cornerstone player” in similar terms to how they speak of Lincecum.
Do you really think they would trade Posey for half a year of Holliday?
by OaklandSi on May 21, 2009 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may agree with you now
that the giants lost another game by the score of 2-1. Starting to fall ~8.5 games behind, even tho they play in a weak division with the only other team play around or above .500 is the Dodgers who lost Manny for 50 games. Who knows what a bat from one of the best players in the NL the last couple of years would do to their lineup. Who knows what an extra bat would do to help Zito’s head (who just lost a CG by the score of 2-1) and how many years they have him (but that isn’t many years or $$$ is it?). Cain in the past has been frustrated with the lack of support.
Some people think that when you have a chance to win the division you go for it, while others are happy to play .500 ball. I guess that is why the sfg have never won the WS. I happen to be one that would try to win and have Holliday a half a season and 2 first round draft choices than a player who has never played in the MLB and could get hurt and never make it to the big show.
by calas on May 21, 2009 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what you're sayin is that there's nobody in the NL really worthwhile
trading for. They’re all years away or rubbish.
by OldhamA on May 20, 2009 6:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no.
It depends on which direction the A’s decide to go. If they have a fire-sale and go back into rebuilding mode, then a guy like Vitters or Dominguez would be worth acquiring, because after this year, we’re unlikely to contend for a couple of years, and they’ll be along in time for that.
If the A’s want to go for it and acquire a major league ready guy, then Craig or Freese or Wallace would be the way to go. There is talent there, but there’s no guy that’s perfect for any scenario.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freese
The last thing we need is another older player with an injury. Also, how much of an improvement is he over a guy like Hanahan?
by Jernskogen on May 20, 2009 6:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well it seems clear that Hannahan will never hit well.
Freese’s injury is non-baseball related. He did it in a car accident. If he gets healthy, then he could be good. I don’t think age should be a huge issue here, it’s not like he’s a surefire grade A prospect, but he could be a major league third baseman for several years. And if we got him now, he’d be entering his biggest power years. Freese should hit for some power and he defends well. If he’s healthy, I’m all for it, but obviously if the foot injury is serious, then it’s pointless.
by NateHST on May 20, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sold, but-
I’m sold on Freese if the foot injury isn’t too bad. However the word “nagging” really freaks me out. How long ago was the car wreck? If it’s a year later and he’s still having problems I don’t think the A’s need another persistent injury problem.
by Jernskogen on May 21, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duke's injuries started with a car accident, too.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on May 21, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not old
He just turned 26 a month ago. He’s not young, but he’s not old. His minor league track record is better than Hannahan’s. Not a ton, but he’s hit for a lot more power. The other aspects of their respective games are similar. Of course, there is no good reason for Hannahan to be as bad as he is. The A’s seem to have a unique talent among major league baseball clubs to make good/decent hitters terrible. Freese could get screwed up by the A’s big league staff, or the ballpark, or whatever, the way everybody else seems to.
by AgitationStation on May 21, 2009 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitting chamber of cold
At this point I have to think part of the poor hitting is due to the cool night air at the Coliseum. We all know how the ball jumps off the bat in warmer weather. That is something the A’s rarely have when playing a night game at home. Of course there has to be another factor included, given that the poor hitting is not strictly confined to night games at home.
by Jernskogen on May 21, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is an interesting post
But it would be better if you were more focused. Two thoughts should help you do that with the AL version that – I assume – you are planning next.
1: If the A’s are trading for a 3B, he needs to be near ML-ready. Guys in A+ or A- really shouldn’t enter into the discussion.
2: Prospect swaps never happen. I’m very interested in teams with AA or AAA 3B prospects and needs we can fill on the ML level. I think this post would be better if it didn’t also include teams who don’t need any ML player the A’s have.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on May 20, 2009 8:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope we do a prospect swap
we have very few assets to trade at the major league level. I think an almost MLB-ready arm such as Gio for a 3B prospect is quite feasible.
by ohmangoAs on May 21, 2009 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's actually have quite a bit of possible trade candidates.
Veterans become very, very valuable assets when it comes to the trade deadline. Contenders want to make the small upgrades with experienced guys, and often mortgage their future to do so. Off the top of my head, I can see teams calling about Holliday, Giambi, Ellis, Cabrera, Wuertz, Springer, and Casilla. That would bring a lot of talent back.
by NateHST on May 21, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand why an ML ready player would be so attractive
But what if the A’s decide to punt this year? If they do, they’re losing Cabrera, Holliday, Springer, Wuertz, maybe Giambi, and Nomar. That’s a lot of talent to lose and still be competitive. If they did punt this year, then that allows time to acquire a high potential A- or A+ prospect and let him develop in time for the next competitive A’s team.
I think for my next post I won’t necessarily forget about anybody below AA, but I’ll leave out untouchables and guys that are fringe prospects. Thanks for the advice.
by NateHST on May 21, 2009 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
People seem to forget that even though we may not make it to the playoffs this year
and I didn’t think we would anyway. Then next year we will have Braden, Cahill and Anderson with at least one year under their belt. Add to that a confident Outman and maybe even Gio if they give him a few starts. I really think that next year the A’s can truly compete with most of the young players they have. Let them play and have fun and they will be better next year.
I would gladly trade Cabrera, Holliday, Springer, Wuertz, Giambi or Nomar plus Eveland or Gallagher for good SS and 3B prospects. Remember we traded our CF of the future plus two others for Holliday.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on May 21, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm skeptical about the A's playoff chances this year
But they’re not necessarily a bad team, they’re just underachieving. In a weak division, early in the season, I think it can still go either way.
by NateHST on May 21, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
for the record BP thinks the odds are about 5%
I think that should spell fire sale.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 21, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that guys below AA aren't just not MLB ready, they're likely 3 years away from (at least) being any good
They are also exponentially higher risks to never pan out.
If the goal is to fill a hole in 3B, we need someone who is very likely to be a ML player. Even a AA or AAA guy is going to need a couple years in the bigs to get going.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on May 21, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers don't support it at first glance, but the answer is Pittsburgh's Neil Walker
Last year Walker posted a 242/280/414 line as a 22 year old in AAA. I know what most folks are thinking… discussion over. Well, not so fast.
Here’s what I couldn’t figure out about Walker’s 2008 performance: In 505 AB he hit 25 doubles, 7 triples and 16 HR. He struck out 102 times to 29 walks. The low walk total isn’t great but the K’s aren’t too extreme for the power production. Walker somehow managed a .274 BABIP while having a line drive rate of 20.4%. Consider that in 2007 he had a 13.5% LD rate and had a .311 BABIP and you explain to me why his line dropped from 275/348/431 in ’07 to the crap he did last year.
MinorLeagueSplits.com has a feature that allows you to neutralize a batter’s luck over the course of a season. It looks at contact rate and line drive/ground ball/fly ball percentages and says this is the batting line Player X should have. Obviously this is theoretical, but its just as obvious to anyone who has watched a lot of baseball that sometimes luck plays a factor in a squib being a hit and a line drive being an out. So anyways, Neil Walker’s 2008 Neutral Luck batting line was: 288/323/480 with a .335 BABIP. Simply put, Walker was incredibly unlucky last year.
So what does that say about his 2009 numbers? Well, he had a fairly lousy April although he did manage to power out 6 doubles and 3 HR in his 15 hits. His May line is 265/342/456… certainly acceptable.
What about defense?
The Pirates converted Walker from C to 3B in 2007, the move went OK with TotalZone (MinorLeagueSplits’ defensive metric courtesy of Sean Smith) scoring him as -7 Runs per 150 games. Negative being a bad thing, but considering he was converting from another position it could’ve/should’ve been worse. In 2008 his score was -1, so continued improvement and getting almost to average. BP, BA and Sickels all gave him plus reviews on his defensive progress in their 2009 tomes and I think with continued work and experience he could soon be an above average defender.
So Walker represents, on the high end, a switch hitting 23 year old above average defensive 3B with some power, although he won’t ever post a high OBP.
But there’s a good chance he could also crash and burn. I mean, he did post some ugly numbers in 2008 and April of this year. What would it cost the A’s to acquire Mr. Walker?
HOW THE HELL SHOULD I KNOW, I’M NOT A GM!!!
But I’ve got an idea.
As Nate said, the Pirates already have Andy LaRoche and spent the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft on 3B Pedro Alvarez, so there’s really no place for Walker in Pittsburgh’s plans. They also have 1B Adam LaRoche, who figures to leave as a FA at the end of the year unless the Pirates trade him first. They really don’t have anyone in the pipeline to replace their current 1B, which is why I think Daric Barton would make an ideal fit for a deal.
Barton is less than a month older than Walker, and like Walker he struggled in 2008 and to start 2009. Both were highly rated players as recently as 2008 and both offer the potential for big league play by the middle of this season. Let’s face it, neither guy is exactly pounding on the door right now but both have had bounce back Mays thus far. Barton is blocked by Giambi in Oakland and is being pushed by Doolittle in Sac and Carter in Midland, so there’s not much chance for him in Oakland. Even if Walker should bomb with the A’s, the cost isn’t something we weren’t going to live without anyway.
Both players could probably use a fresh start and their current teams are looking for help at the other guy’s position… I think there’s a really strong basis for a deal here.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on May 20, 2009 8:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice Analysis
Barton > Walker? At least the A’s think so, right? So either Pittsburgh throws in another prospect or this deal probably doesn’t happen. Neil Walker (3B) + Brian Friday (SS) for Daric Barton
by Colorado Fan on May 20, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely done, grover! I'm sold
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 22, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That make a lot of sense.
The logic is similar to the Jack Hannahan for Jason Perry trade in 2007.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 21, 2009 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you posed this idea on the Pirates blog, grover?
I’d be curious to know what they think.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 21, 2009 2:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
take out Mazzaro
The A’s will not trade him. He was almost called up and A’s brass are thinking of having him up next month if he keeps pitching well. He will be part of the starting 5 next year. Barton, Simmons, Gio gonzalez will be traded before Mazzaro.
by Arcman on May 20, 2009 9:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Slusser is reporting
that the A’s are likdly to inquire about Mark DeRosa (and had tried to get him in 2006). While Cleveland is looking for pitching, Slusser says that the A’s will not trade any of their “hotshot oung pitchers.” She doesn’t mention which pitchers would be included (or excluded) from that label.
by OaklandSi on May 20, 2009 9:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa decent chance to remain a type A FA after 09
so maybe the price might be higher than A’s are willing to pay. if it was a gray, eveland, godfrey, webb,deal, richmond etc type pitcher i’d consider it. i’d be hesitant on banwart, fernandez,hernandez, capra, ross, italiano.
i’d still prefer freese,craig, dewitt, kouzmanoff over a rental type
by Asfan4ever723 on May 21, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As we saw this off season
I doubt teams will give away a first round pick for DeRosa. Therefore, his price might be lower.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 21, 2009 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although I don't necessarily think he'll be a star
I’m still liking Daniel Murphy. Murphy + Fernando Martinez for Holliday? Not sure how fair of a trade that is but I still remember schmifty’s review of him Not a surefire star, but probably a solid player. Honestly what other trade options are there for soon or immediate help? Although I wish we can get a 3B for Holliday trade, it might not be the best value with the options out there.
by rightbackin on May 21, 2009 1:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
re
At some point, I think the A’s have to acknowledge that even if they can’t get someone with much upside, they have to at least get someone who will stop the bleeding. I like the idea of Freese, a lot actually. If he could put together last year’s power with his previous plate discipline (until last year perhaps one of his best attributes and he skipped AA) plus his always good defense, he could safely lock down third for years. I like the idea of getting Jason Donald as well. I don’t know exactly what he’d cost, but I know the A’s have it (Corey Brown and any non Bailey or Zeigler reliever?) Donald’s not going to hit 30 home runs, but he might hit .290 with some walks, good baserunning, and 15 home runs (well, adjusted to the Coliseum), and moving over from shortstop, I assume he’d be average defensively at worst. That’s basically Joe Randa, and it’s a hell of a lot more than the A’s current options.
No great solutions anywhere, that’s one thing for sure. As far as a trade for a young 3B, the best case scenario, if the A’s can’t get back in it and the Angels stay in it, may be to trade Holliday for Brandon Wood. Although, I guess the A’s would stick Wood at SS (which would be great too!). I’m not rooting for the A’s to suck all season, don’t get me wrong, but getting Wood would be making the best out of a bad situation. They could still get one of the other guys also.
If the A’s didn’t like Wallace for 3B last year (and I can’t imagine they would have passed on him if they did), I assume they wouldn’t like him there this year (though I also assume they’re kicking themselves for passing on that bat regardless). Strongly doubt he could be had for less than Cahill or Anderson anyway.
by AgitationStation on May 21, 2009 7:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You are better off rooting for the A's to win games
Cuz there is no way Anaheim is sending over Brandon Wood. They barely make trades as it is… no way they make a deal with the devil (Beane).
by Colorado Fan on May 21, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so fast...
July 29, 1999: Jeff Davanon, Nathan Haynes, and Elvin Nina (minors) were traded by the Athletics to the Anaheim Angels for Randy Velarde and Omar Olivares.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 21, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
We’ll trade you our known-to-be-crappy players for your known-to-be-crappy players. Think a Cahill for Brandon Wood Trade would ever go down?
by Colorado Fan on May 22, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
weren't the Mariners the ones to beat in the AL West then?
by OaklandSi on May 22, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Texas was.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Olivares and Valarde were excellent players at the time.
Also Cahill would be a huge overpay for wood.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was when Bavasi was running the Angels, wasn't it?
It’s in the Stoneman era that the Angels became trade-averse. Maybe the new guy is different.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 22, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is possible I don't know when Bavasi ended.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 22, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
St Louis
From what I have read they are looking for a 3Bman too. So they will be holding onto wallace as their long term plans. St Louis looks like they will not deal any 3b prospects.
by Arcman on May 21, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
lets think about this
A’’s strength is depth in pitching, relievers, etc lots of teams need this. i find it hard to believe they cant find a 3b somewhere. players like kouzmanoff, craig, freese, dewitt can be had. freese/craig are 25 yr olds struggling in AAA , most padres frans cant stand kouz, dewitt is stuck in a roster crunch,
by Asfan4ever723 on May 21, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Atkins
Read that the Rockies are trying to move Atkins. What’s the problem with him again (aside from slow starts)? I’m all for prospects but I think we could use somebody now. Of course if Atkins isn’t an upgrade over Hanahan…
by Jernskogen on May 21, 2009 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
OPS+ by season ...
2006 136
2007 112
2008 97
2009 44
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 21, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also:
Colorado product. Big time.
.931 OPS at Coors, .730 OPS away, and unlike Matt Holliday, he’s not getting any better.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on May 21, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OPS+ is park adjusted ...
all players perform poorer on the road — players in extreme parks have a tendency to have extreme splits
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 21, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chase Headley
Apparently the Padres have lost their mind and are offering up Chase Headley to the Mariners in trade talks for Yuniesky Betancourt.
This is a published report, so there is a chance that Headley is actually available. If he is, I can guarantee you that the A’s can offer up a lot more than the M’s can at this time. The Padres seem to really be blowing everything up and starting from scratch, so I’m sure they would take a package of whatever talent the A’s could spare. The Padres seem to want a shortstop prospect of some sort, so I’m sure the A’s could send them Petit or maybe Pennington and then expand it to include Gio or H-Rod or a low-minors, upside arm like Italiano. Bottom line: if Headley is available, Beane should pounce.
The guy is a switch-hitter with some power that has struggled with hitting at Petco but has hit over .800 OPS on the road the last few years and is currently playing out of position in left field, but is a natural 3rd baseman with a decent glove that is entering his prime years and is under club control for 4 more seasons after this one. This is the guy to pursue if the Padres really area blowing up everything.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on May 21, 2009 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The sinister hand of
Paul Depodesta at work in SD?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on May 21, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's not much I'd refuse to trade for Headly
Aside from MAC.
Wonder if they’d do Gio straight up for him?
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on May 21, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chase Headley's position?
Looking on Baseball Reference, I see they show him with 115 games in LF and 12 games at 3B (and 9 as PH). If the A’s get him, are you envisioning him at 3B or in the outfield? And if the latter, who gets pushed out of LF, him or Holliday?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 21, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's was a 3B in the minors, it's his natural position.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on May 21, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kouzmanoff is blocking him at 3B
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 21, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the Padres would love to move Kouzmanoff
Not that I want the A’s to have him
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on May 22, 2009 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
doubt its true
since betancourt sucks, cant see them offering up headley
was available i
but if he’s available i’d trade them mazzaro and pennington for headley right now
by Asfan4ever723 on May 21, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For Yuniesky freaking Betancourt?
That one is indeed a no-brainer. However, Petit and Pennington aren’t going to get it done. If they’re after Betancourt, they’re not after a prospect, they want someone who is MLB ready and a shortstop. Never mind that Betancourt isn’t, but since he’s put up a solid five years of .700 OPS in the bigs to go with decidedly average (at best) glovework, I guess that counts as “ready.”
Betancourt is also under contract through 2011; besides being owed the remainder of $2M this year, he’s owed at least $9M over the next two years. Unless, of course, the Pads exercise his option, in which case he’s owed $13M over the next three years.
The more I think about this, the more it has to be a figment of somebody’s imagination.
The more I think about this, the more it has to be possible. Why on earth would the Padres want a pricey, obligated, and consistently mediocre shortstop?
I guess they’d want Crosby if he was under contract for longer? That’s exactly who they’re trading for (albeit two or three years younger).
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on May 21, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was weird.
Something got masked as I was trying to clean that up. Let’s go with:
The more I think about this, the more it has to be a figment of somebody’s imagination. Why on earth would the Padres want a pricey, obligated, and consistently mediocre shortstop?
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on May 21, 2009 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His raw numbers don't really stand out.
He’s better than what we have though.
by OldhamA on May 21, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taylor Green was not acquired in the Sabathia deal
He was one of the two players the Indians were allowed to choose from to complete the trade; they chose Michael Brantley, and Green remained in the Brewers organization.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
by battlekow on May 21, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Love the series ... however, some quibbles
Real prospect for prospect deals rarely happen, which is why the Young/Garza deal was so unusual. Nor do truly elite prospects get traded.
Matt Dominguez – Bordering on too much of an elite prospect to reasonably acquire. Will take too long to get to the bigs to plug our 3b hole. Might as well wait on Christian.
Logan Forsythe – Good target. Not too elite… however, hes in A ball and is too far away.
Pads do have Headley who is probably too good for a non contending team to give up (I don’t believe the Bentacourt) and Kouzmanoff who I think is the best target.
St. Louis Cardinals just had Glaus go down so chances are they aren’t going to trade their third base depth because their current crop without Glaus is OPSing in the high 600s.
Brett Wallace – I wouldn’t want to trade Cardeneas straight up for Wallace, let alone Cardeneas plus. Also Im not sure exactly when Wallace signed but he would need to be a PTBNL if it was less than a year after he was signed. Also it is likely that if the A’s thought that he could stay at 3b he would have been drafted by us.
David Freese – Might be available next year but I don’t think upper minors 3bs are currently available from STL. Ditto goes for Allen Craig
Pittsburgh Pirates – It is hard to trade with a rebuilding team because of the lack of prospect for prospect trades. That being said I DO NOT WANT ALVAREZ. He has sucked for two years now and has injury issues.
Neil Walker – Seems like a good option due to his numbers being artificially depressed last year because of bad luck. However this is the third try at AAA where his BABIP is in the .250 range. Even his luck/park nuetral 780 ops isn’t that good especially when considering that its MLE is a .598 OPS.
Matt Hague and Jarek Cunningham are too far away.
Houston Astros
Chris Johnson might be a good flier in exchange for someone like Eveland or an extra bullpen arm but I don’t think he is anywhere close to the answer.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Austin Gallagher and Pedro Baez – too far away. Blake Dewit might be availible. Instead of looking to trade a real prospect. The A’s might want to consider trying to eat some salary of a player who
San Francisco Giants
Conor Gillaspie – too far away and I worry a lot about the lack of slugging
Jesus Guzman cant play D at 1b let alone at third.
New York Mets
Murphy + for Holliday is actually a well thought out trade, which I would endorse.
Wilmer Flores (B+) – love to have, could end up playing first due to poor glove, not nearly close enough to solve our immediate problem.
Jefry Marte is a younger Wilmer Flores in all the ways i commented on.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies played well a couple of years ago, but haven’t been able to put it together over the last couple of years. They have Ian Stewart, who has seen success but not consistent playing time. Steward could cost an ugly amount of talent, but he represents a real solution at 3B. If they keep Stewart, he’s blocking their 3B prospects. The Rockies always need pitching prospects.
Darin Holcomb struggling at AA isn’t a recipe for success at a big league level anytime soon.
Milwaukee Brewers
Mat Gamel – might be worthwile to acquire despite defensive issues. If he can play third great otherwise hell be a masher in LF which unless Carter moves to the OF it doesn’t look like we have. The cost would be interesting as Escobar could probably come up and play better D and hit just as well as Petit or Moneypenny, neither of which would have been good enough to trade outright for Gamel.
Taylor Green too far away for immediate help.
Cincinnati Reds
Neftali Soto is too far away to solve our immediate problems
Drew Sutton former Astro’s prospects that are roll players don’t really fit the bill of legit 3b prospect that can take the reigns starting next year.
Juan Francisco no thank you. OBP < 300 = no need to apply.
Chicago Cubs
With Aramis Ramirez, a guy like Vitters isn’t untouchable, but he would cost quite a bit. The Cubs farm system isn’t really that strong right now.
Josh Vitters trading Mazzaro for Vitters is too much. If Bradley stays hurt and fukdome comes down to earth might be a match for Holliday in July. Also he is too far away.
4) Jason Donald He’s struggling in AAA right now, he is old, and I never liked him.
Atlanta Braves
Are going to want to keep Chipper insurance.
Great report though!
PS Kilby is an Angel these days.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 21, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow I really should have proofed/not wrote while so distracted.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on May 21, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if there's a better way
to quantify the defensive potential of some of the listed prospects who have good bats. Does anyone remember how bad Chavez was supposed to be at playing third when he came up?
For example, I watched Gamel play third the other night. He didn’t look slow or unathletic, and he had a live arm. I wonder why it’s such a foregone conclusion he’ll be a defensive disaster—are his error totals really that predictive?
I haven’t studied this, but I strongly suspect that players make much larger gains in their development on the defensive side of the ball than they do at the plate, for a variety of reasons:
1) Fielding is easier.
2) Prospects are often moved around the field. They’ve been hitting their whole lives, but they may have been playing third base for just a couple of years.
3) Fielding is more teachable (which, I suppose, is really just a variation of #1).
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on May 21, 2009 9:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Or in the case of A's recent history
4) Ron Washington
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on May 22, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly what I've been thinking about, jeepers
So often a team passes on a player (like Wallace) because they don’t believe he’ll stick at a position defensively, but then they’ll draft a player (like Weeks) who isn’t any guarantee to be able to stick offensively (because no hitter is) – so why not sometimes take the chance in the “defensive question mark” direction instead of drafting Weeks?
I imagine the answer is that mediocre fielding is relatively unlikely to improve – but there have to be individual examples to the contrary that sharp scouts can identify, the “exceptions to the rule” that are your diamonds in the rough.
You certainly have examples like Daric Barton, who wasn’t supposed to be a good 1Bman but learned to be, so of course it can happen. Why draft hitters assuming that they’ll hit, but then avoid drafting mediocre defenders who seem like great hitters, hoping they can improve enough defensively?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 22, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think case example this works with Weeks.
Everything I’ve read suggests he can hit, but it’s finding a defensive position for him. He’s athletic enough to play several, it’s to do with the glove work.
If anything Weeks is exactly like the type of player you’ve suggested the A’s draft – a guy that can hit (though Weeks has the added advantage of being able to run) and then finding a defensive position for him once you have him. He has the upside of being able to play much more valuable positions like 2B or CF than a guy like Wallace too.
In my opinion Weeks is harshly treated by A’s fans – it’s unfortunate he had such a bad injury so early in his A’s career (though it proves he’s a true Athletic….) as he’s not had the chance to justify his draft position. I think he will, but obviously that’s just speculation at this point.
by OldhamA on May 22, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*I don't think this case example works with Weeks.
Is how that’s meant to read. :-S
by OldhamA on May 22, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scott Sabbatini (Examiner) makes his case
for the possibility of the A’s getting Josh Vitters. What he adds to the speculation is a possible interest by the Cubs in Matt Holliday – not that the Cubs have ever expressed that to my knowledge.
by OaklandSi on May 23, 2009 12:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I say
go to the Padres. They are looking for prospects, especially pitching and everything else. I think that we could trade a pitching prospect for a third basemen in Logan Forcythe
by JackofAllTrades on May 24, 2009 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But he's not 20/20
Hindcythe, on the other hand…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 24, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On a more serious note,
I’ve never heard of Forcythe, and I don’t find him in Sickels’ book or on the MiLB web site. Does he in fact exist, and if so can you tell us something about him?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 24, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never mind - it's spelled Forsythe and now I have located him
Off to a nice start in A-ball, but bat is not that well liked by Sickels.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on May 24, 2009 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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