Really solid post. I don’t mind those who criticize Billy Beane for moves he’s made, but what pissed me off the most about the front page post was the comments about Beane “not caring”. He’s working his ass off for the team, and honestly there is only so much a GM can do, especially during the season.

Beane created a team that many (including myself) thought had the best chance in the AL West of making the playoffs. It’s unfortunate that this slow start has probably made their projection a mid 70 win team. But until its late-June, I’m not giving up. Hell, it wasn’t until last year that A’s fans didn’t utter the familiar refrain of wait until after May. The A’s have always started slow. Giambi has always started slow. Duke will come back soon.

I’ve seen my share of craziness on the diamond (and I’ve only been a hardcore fan since ‘97). Perhaps the A’s will play .800 ball for a couple of months. Perhaps they’ll reel off 20 in a row. Perhaps they’ll remind me of why I love this game. To paraphrase an old friend, perhaps they’ll remind me that there are times I can’t tell the difference between the game and magic.

But….

When a team starts this bad, it is hard to say anyone is "overreacting. When the offense appears to be set on another underperforming season, it’s hard to say anyone is “overreacting”. When the manager shows so little ability to turn things around and happens to be the GM’s good buddy, it’s hard to say anyone is “overreacting”. When the team is in ballpark limbo, and appears to be doing little or nothing to welcome or assuage its existing fan base, it’s hard to say anyone is “overreacting”. When, almost as a cruel joke, Hollywood is about to make what, as far as I know, is the first feature length film which ever had a baseball GM (Branch Rickey played a deservedly big role in the Jackie Robinson film) as its protagonist, and yet that said team has never even won a league championship and is now into its third year as a losing nine, it’s hard to say anyone is “overreacting”.

Sure, we’ve been spoiled. But so what? we have a right not to expect that we will be Kansas City or Pittsburgh. (And we may not be KC this year, that’s for sure)

As to the merits of your analysis:

!) Ellis’ resigning is not a major thing either way— Kennedy has become a perfectly adequate replacement, and we can hope that Ellis’ will still bring excellent defense and some hitting every now and then when he returns;

2) I don’t think you can call the Swisher trade “AMAZING” now, nor when it was first made. It was a fair deal. Things didn’t work out for the White Sox, and they haven’t really worked out for the A’s. Maybe the Yankees will be the ultimate beneficiary, though his BA is already at 250 and heading south;

3) the Haren deal as a very good deal— but its success now hinges, at least in part, as to what happens with Holliday and how or if the A’s fill the CF position. If Gonzalez turns out to be the “one that got away”, then what we get back for Holliday starts mattering a lot unless Anderson, Carter and Cunningham all hit in the next couple of years, which is certainly possible. But still overall this was a very good deal, i agree;

4) Harden will always be an enigma, for the team that has him and the one(s) who once had him. And this trade i pretty enigmatic, now resting on whether or not Donaldson is a big league catcher or not. From the Cubs’ standpoint they’ve already gotten enough value out of this deal— Harden helped them reach the playoffs. If he helps them do it again or, better yet, reach that 100 yr old Promised Land of a WC, then it’s one of the best deals in their history. But he may blow up with injury again, too— in fact, proably will. Not a bad deal, but hardly a great deal.

5) i have no problems with the Blanton deal. Sure it would be nice to have an inning-eater, but the A’sprobably maximized Joe’s ability for three plus years, and Outman is a decent enough replacement and cardenas could be special;

6) Holliday we all agree on and the jury is out.

But BB cannot be judged simply by these moves— he has left the cupboard bare on the left side of the infield. Other than Frank Thomas, his veteran acquisitions and, for that matter, most of his longer-term signings, ahve been busts for years now. Kendall-Kotsay-Loaiza-Nomar-Giambi-Cabrera-Piazza-Chavez-Dye…. some more egregiously bad than others, but Beane’s batting average has been Buck-like (there, I said it) in these type of moves, or the non-moves that were made because of them.

The bottom line is the product has sucked for over two years now— and the truth is that the team was already in decline in 2006, but for some magical overperformance and one nice playoff series. They were gangbusters— against all odds- in 2001-02. It has actually been a steady decline ever since. We’re waiting, more and more impatiently, for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.

i see no reason why they couldnt produce anyone else during that time. For whatever reason it wasnt a priority in the draft and wasnt a priority in any of their trades. so other than scutaro/hannahan/murphy etc they couldnt try anyone else? Beane has attempted trades for ginter/ant. perez by trading “depth” guys like ethier/nel. cruz those didnt work out. theyve only drafted 3 third baseman in the top 10 rds in the last 5 yrs…snyder/baisley/leslie

One angle I’m surprised hasn’t received more attention (and maybe I missed it) is the player development and scouting issue. Is it reasonable to think that a share of the blame could fall on guys like Keith Lieppman or Eric Kubota?

It seems everyone shares a common frustration that the players coming through the minor league ranks are not performing as we would like. Sure, we have some solid prospects on the horizon but I’m not about to celebrate these players quite yet. Players are difficult to project and there is no such thing as a sure thing so let’s wait and see before we celebrate the future of Cardenas, Christian, Coleman, Carter, Doolittle, Mazarro, etc.

Personally, I’ve been a little upset with the way some players have been jerked around between AAA and the bigs (and I know I’m not alone- Petit, Gio, Eveland, Barton, etc all fall into this category and there has been a lot of discussion around it). Now, it may all work out and be part of the master plan but for now this up and down style of development doesn’t seem to be paying dividends.

As far as drafting is concerned, I’m not sure who makes the decisions in the room (maybe the source of flying chairs still reigns supreme) but it is something worth considering. If it isn’t Beane making the calls then maybe our lack of 3b (and until recently MI depth) falls on someone else.

This argument is not meant to change the target of blame as much as to address what else could be creating these disappointing seasons. As much as this season pains me to watch I am more worried about how decisions made this year could impact 2010 and beyond.

We dodged a bullet there.

He has to get a high upside talent at either 3b or SS to come out even in the Holliday trade. Beane also rushed Cahill and Anderson to the majors without mastering AA.

ohmangoAs, you did a nice job summarizing the trades and making a case for them.

I do think it’s premature to reach any sweeping conclusions about most of the trades. You can make a “good” trade and come out with a bad result, of course, but the game is about results – not how highly ranked a prospect was at one time.

I think you’re giving Beane too much credit regarding the black hole that is third base. There has been a good reason to draft or acquire a third baseman for several years now, if only for insurance and long-term planning. It’s been easy to foresee that third base was going to be a major problem for the last two years at least, and the notion that Chavez would return from multiple surgeries and play a demanding defensive position was foolhardy. The Garciaparra signing, while harmless in the abstract, was not a solution. The guy can’t stay healthy. The only surprise would have been if he had stayed healthy.

Shortstop is another major problem, and Cabrera is only a band-aid.

I think the best defense of Billy Beane is that his track record is quite good, given the payroll constraints. His biggest problem may simply be that the rest of major league baseball caught up with him.

If the backlash against Beane on a site whose founder once gave out “In Billy We Trust” T-shirts seems like overkill, it’s probably in the nagging sense that Beane, having become a celebrity for his smarts, isn’t making smart decisions and may not be as engaged and driven as he used to be.

The team’s injury problems are too steady to be chalked up only to bad luck. The Geren hiring was an obvious mistake that many people called at the time. The chatter about soccer and personal appearances and “Moneyball” fame are all well and good when the team is either winning or showing promise. Beane, with Michael Lewis’ help, gives the A’s franchise a bit of glamour. But it starts to grate when the team is one of the worst in the league.

Beane deserves enormous credit for the work he has done over the years. But it’s also fair to judge him on recent performance. Right now, he’s running a bad and boring team.

how so many people seem to have just forgotten about how strong the A’s minor league system is. Just 6 months ago, everyone was raving about the minor league system. Not much has changed in that system. Yes Cahill/Anderson appear to have been rushed, and we lost some key players in the Holliday trade. But the stystem is still strong and deep, and we should still be looking ahead to the future.

Billy’s commitment to Eric has screwed our infield. Bottom line. He has hung on to and INVESTED into a guy he liked. How often have we seen him punk a guy he does not, ala Carlos Pena. His ego exploded with Money Ball. It is time for William to “Show us the Money” or hang up his cleats.

I generally agree with your well articulated post. However, there were two deals that I really did not like at the time.

While everyone seemed to accept, reasonably enough, that Harden was a time bomb physically, the unbelievable upside when healthy seemed to me to be reason to keep him. If you could ever make the playoffs, you just might have the best pitcher in the league (or certainly a top 5 one.) We had him for cheap $ (Loaiza prices, if I recall correctly.) The return appeared to me then as pretty negligible, and it does today. Clearly there wasn’t a lot more out there for Harden, but if so, we should have kept him, in my opinion.

Secondly, I never liked losing Pena. I’ll admit that a lot of that had to do with my love for great fielding at first base (and that was based on watching his elegance, not on numbers.) But those were the trades that I really disliked at first sight.

The others have all seemed reasonable, if not entirely comprehensible (I’m still not sure that I understand the Holliday trade.)

Thanks for the good post.

On Harden, we’re not a playoff team, so 5 starts here and there from him make no difference this or last year. I feel really confident that Gallagher and/or Donaldson make an impact on the team over the next 7 years. Remember, it’s 1.5 years of Harden for 7 years of Donaldson, and 6 (I think) years of Gallagher.

I left Pena out because I wanted to stay focused on this rebuild (that why the Hudson/Mulder deals weren’t discussed, for example)

Harden actually started 25 games last year, and has already started 8 this year. It looks like he skipped a start or maybe 2 with the Cubs last year, but that’s it. So far, obviously. I think almost everyone on AN seemed to fill in the worst case scenario with Harden as the actual outcome, when it hasn’t been the case (as of yet.)

I hope you’re right about Gallagher/Donaldson.