Oakland's Trade Bait: Ellis
by NateHST on May 14, 2009 3:14 PM PDT
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PrintThe Unicorn is an interesting case when it comes to Oakland's trade bait. He's injured right now and it's a leg injury which, if it ends up affecting him when he comes back, could hurt his range an awful lot. He is expected to come back early-to-mid June.
What makes him such an interesting case is that nobody really knows what to expect from him. In 2005, he was worth 20.5 RAR but last year he was worth -4.7 RAR. His fielding as also improved every year he's been in the majors; last year his glovework was worth 17.4 RAR, tied for third most in the majors.
Back in September, Ellis underwent major shoulder surgery and it was unclear whether or not he would return to form defensively. Up until the calf injury, Ellis looked very good with the glove, and appeared to return to last season's form.
Unfortunately, his hitting hasn't returned to 2005 form, and it doesn't appear to be trending that way in general. He was OPSing .503 so far with zero homeruns. However, his BABIP was a mere .245. What bothers me is that Ellis hits so many weak pop-ups, and rarely makes solid contact with the ball. Either way, it should improve somewhat when he returns from the DL.
It strikes me as unfortuante that Ellis' value almost exclusively from his defense, because it seems that a lot of teams don't value defense as much as the A's. Here is a few players that Ellis was more valuable than last year: Alfonso Soriano, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Vladimir Guerrero. Signed to a team friendly contract similar to to the one Ellis is signed to, do you think any team would give up the same amount of talent to acquire Ellis than any of those players? I'm skeptical.
If the A's were to falter this year and hold a fire sale, then there are a couple scenarios. It appears to be clear that the A's don't want to give Cardenas a lot of time at 3rd base, and even though he's struggling at AAA, he could be capable of taking over early next year. The A's also have Petit and Pennington capable of taking over 2B this year, and with Cardenas coming up fast, Ellis might have to be moved eventually, anyways.
Of all the players that were worth around 3.1 WAR last year, nearly none of them were traded. Jason Bay, who was worth 2.9 WAR, was traded by the Pirates to the Red Sox in a three way deal that netted them Andy LaRoche (LA), Bryan Morris (LA), Craig Hanson (BOS) and Brandon Moss (BOS). As I discussed in the Holliday trade bait piece, the Bay deal was built around one solid prospect and some major league pieces.
Bay was in the middle of a deal worth $5.75MM in 2008 and $7.5MM in 2009. Anybody that trades for Ellis will get a similar team-friendly deal signed in the 08-09 offseason worth $5MM in 09, and $5.5MM in 2010 and a club option worth $6MM in 2011. I think Bay is an extremely comparable deal, but again, I don't think teams would give up talent for a strictly-defensive player, especially coming off surgery and an injury.
However, let's look at teams in need of a second baseman and see if we can figure something out.Actually, there is a great influx of talented second basemen in the MLB right now, with the likes of Cano, Fontenot, Phillips, Roberts, Hill, Kinsler, Utley, and Pedroia (who's tremendously overrated but still good).
One team sticks out.
St. Louis Cardinals - This season, the Cards decided to conduct a little experiment when they moved outfielder Skip Schumaker to second base. So far this season he's been worth -8.8 RAR with the glove. Ellis would represent a huge improvement over Schumaker, and with few middle infield prospects on the farm, his cheap, three-year contract would be a perfect fit for the Cards.
Colby Rasmus - Out of the question.
Brett Wallace - I doubt even a Wallace/Ellis swap would work out, but if we threw in an extra piece or two, then MAYBE a deal could be worked out. They need a lot of bullpen help, and really, so do we. But if we're out of the race, somebody like Wuertz or Springer would definitely help them in a playoff run. Ellis plus a good reliever for Wallace. Is that enough? I still have my doubts.
Daryl Jones - The 22 year old outfielder has tools and has finally started to put them together over the last couple of years. The Cardinals have a crowded outfield right now, with Ankiel, Rasmus, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker (if they get a real second baseman).
David Freese (3B) and Allen Craig (3B) - Neither project to be studs, but both could be solid major leaguers. Freese has power and a glove, while Craig is an overall better hitting prospect. While the A's have nearly nothing at 3B, either would definitely help an A's organizational weakspot.
Other than that, the Cardinals best prospects are mostly relief pitchers, which I doubt they'll want to give up due to the fact that it's their big weakness at the MLB level. They also have Brian Barden, who looks to be an average major league third baseman.
The Marlins also represent another option, as Dan Uggla has been pretty bad this year, including defensively, but did anybody really expect good glovework? He needs to be moved to 1B, but I think the Marlins giving up young talent to get Ellis is unlikely, but in a competitive NL East, it could definitely happen.
I think a deal for Daryl Jones and Freese/Craig would be a good deal for both teams. Anybody got any other ideas?
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I'd pull the trigger for Craig/Freese and Jones.
But I’d have to be 100% certain that Adrian Cardenas was ready to play second base in the big leagues.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Even if Cardenas isn't ready
Then the A’s have Pennington, Petit, and E-Pat to fill in before Cardenas is ready. If the A’s are out of the race this year, they don’t appear to be capable of competing for the next couple of years, and they should definitely get the best value they can get for him.
In what universe
I don’t pretend to understand some of the new stats but how in the world could Mark Ellis be worth more than Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder. His defense isn’t that good.
The Cardinals have other players like Tyler Green and Joe Thurston who can play 2B if they need to put Shumaker in the outfield so I don’t know if their need is that strong as Ellis isn’t going to hit much more than these two.
If Adam Kennedy proves to be a solid player at second then the A’s should explore moving Ellis but I don’t think the market for him will be that strong.
Defense and positional value
Last year, Cabrera and Fielder’s defense were terrible, while Ellis was amazing. Also, second base is a much more valuable position than 1B. Check it out—it’s true.
I agree
This is a validation of the time-honored saying, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” There is something seriously wrong with an interpretation of data that suggests Mark Ellis is more valuable than those players.
The idea, certainly, is that there’s a greater pool of players that produce offense from first base, and there is some value to the idea. But there’s absolutely no way that a team that signed Mark Ellis to replace an average second baseman, instead of Prince Fielder to replace an average first baseman, would be better off for it.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
It's not an issue of me selecting statistics that prove my point
It’s an issue of Miguel Cabrera and Fielder and Vlad being terrible fielders. If you can’t tell how a team is good, it usually means they’re good at defense—Mark Ellis. At face value, Cabrera and Fielder hit long homeruns but they are butchers in the field. A run scored is as valuable to winning as a run saved is, right?
I should clarify
I don’t think you’re cherry picking. I am skeptical of the value of the source content. A run scored is indeed as valuable as a run saved, but I have a very hard time grasping how Cabrera and Fielder could really cost you that many runs defensively, in real life, rather than a spreadsheet.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Well the whole point is that
Ellis saves those runs while the other players give them up at an alarming rate. Ellis is amazing at 2B and they suck at 1B.
One more thing
Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that my skepticism of Fangraphs is completely unfounded, and Mark Ellis really is more valuable, when healthy, than Prince Fielder. Why on earth would you trade an asset that valuable, when there’s no way the market will ever give you anything approximating his value for him? Would you trade Prince Fielder for Daryl Jones or David Freese?
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Prince Fielder is overvalued.
Mark Ellis is undervalued. While I understand your point that Fielder would command more talent, the point is that he shouldn’t. And keep in mind that these hypotheticals are only if the A’s aren’t competing and don’t appear to be competing any time soon, and Ellis won’t really help this team compete—he’s just eating salary that we could be using on another player.
Maybe he shouldn't command more talent.
He does, though, and he always will. If the A’s are selling off assets, they should be our overvalued ones, too (if we have any). Ellis may very well help the team compete next year, if he’s really that good, at a very reasonable price, and there’s no guarantee Cardenas will be ready to replace him.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
3 WAR is good, but not great.
He’s not going to single-handedly make the A’s compete. That’s ridiculous. Not of the A’s replace Giambi with Doolittle/Barton and Crosby/O-Cab with Pennington or Petit and Holliday with Cunningham. That’s a lot of talent to lose and still compete with a rag-tag rotation that won’t have Duke.
This is exactly the point.
Even if it’s true that Mark Ellis is worth as many runs to a team as Prince Fielder is, the reality is that it will cost you a lot more to get a Prince Fielder than a Mark Ellis. You could trade a Mark Ellis straight up for a Prince Fielder, but you couldn’t trade a Prince Fielder straight up for a Mark Ellis. Maybe you think the market it wrong, but it’s still the going rate. You can’t ignore the price.
If it’s really true that Prince Fielders are overvalued and Mark Ellises are undervalued, then we ought to go around buying all the Mark Ellises we can find and selling any Prince Fielders we happen to raise.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
When OBP was undervalued, Beane went after it.
When other teams started chasing OBP, Beane went to defense.
It’s too bad that the rest of the MLB doesn’t see Ellis’ true value, because he deserves the recognition. It is great for the A’s in terms of signing him to a lower contract, but not so good when it comes to trying to get equal ‘true’ value in a trade.
by LoneStranger on May 15, 2009 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it's that Ellis gets to almost everything hit into his fielding
zone and lots of balls out of it too. Cabrera and Fielder however don’t. They make the routine plays, but cost their team runs by having poor range and not getting to balls they really should.
I get the theory
I’m not so confident in the ability to collect reliable data regarding range and zone, and a result that posits Ellis as more valuable than Prince Fielder doesn’t inspire much confidence.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
When someone gives me statistics....
saying that ellis is more valuable than prince fielder or miguel cabrera, my rebuttle is….
who would you rather have?
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on May 14, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
which begs the point
someone with the stats would probably pick ellis. And, since ellis is cheaper/easier to get than fielder, he’d have more ellis’s than you have fielders. So his team of ellis would beat your team of fielder.
Another thing you have to take into account
is their positional values. Because Ellis plays a premium position, when he gets hurt, the A’s have to call up Pennington or Hannahan or Petit. If Fielder (hypothetically let’s say he’s an Athletic) is injured, you can pretty much plug anybody in because 1B is so easy to play.
If it was hitting and fielding alone, I would rather have Cabrera/Fielder—but it’s not just that, it’s positional value as well. Cabrera and Fielder can’t play second base, giving Ellis the edge.
...
I understand good second basemen are hard to come by, but honestly, with price equal, you would rather have Mark Ellis than Miguel Cabrera? Sure, he plays a harder to fill position with good defense. He’s also hitting about 150 points lower than him, and has a third as many RBI’s. I understand these statistics aren’t the best for comparing players but I’m feeling lazy and there is no need at all to break out any sort of complicated statistic to prove Miggy or Prince are better to have on your team than Mark Ellis. Do you really think Ellis has saved us so many runs to completely negate the fact that he is god awful on offense? He has a VORP of -4.6, while Miggy has +18.5. And VORP accounts for positional scarcity. The market might undervalue defense, but not to the point where someone like Ellis who would likely couldn’t give away is actually better than most of the league, only no one realizes it.
bring back rickey
by yo on May 16, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL at the comparison
Miguel Cabrera is an incredible player. He can be mediocre at a relatively easy defensive position (1B) and still be an amazing asset. I love Mark Ellis but there’s just no comparison. Oh, and Cabrera is 26.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why is everyone (including you)
so quick to dismiss statistics that disagree with your opinions—with what you see and feel. If you want to make an argument that says that the way defensive value is calculated then I appreciate and am more than willing to concede the point. But when you say, “Psh, Miguel Cabrera is clearly better than Mark Ellis,” I just discard your point.
An opinion would be saying that you’d rather have Cabrera than Ellis, and I’ll respect that; but I don’t respect your assertions that aren’t based on anything except ridiculing me or anybody else trying to make a point with actual data. Thanks for contributing nothing to this discussion.
I've learned from the Braden/Eveland discussion
not to pursue these conversations – they just end up with everyone feeling worse. So I’ll vow to make this my last contribution.
Here’s Cabrera’s career offensive stats so far, and he’s only 26 and getting better. There aren’t too many career .312 hitters out there, certainly not ones who are good for 33-37 HRs a year. You don’t have to be a great defensive player to be “superstar valuable” hitting at that level.
You’re talking about a guy who has a chance to become a Manny Ramirez level “one of the all time great” offensive players. Defense is very important, but hitters like Cabrera don’t come around often.
Just curious – if Ellis were fully healthy and the Tigers, for some reason, wanted to trade Cabrera straight up for Ellis, would you do it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Offensive stats
This is the exact thing that is the problem. Offensive stats are shiny. They are tangible. Defensive stats aren’t, but that doesn’t mean they’re not valuable.
Cabrera plays a position that is easy to replace, Ellis does not. Cabrera sucks at his position. Ellis does not. Ellis was a 3+ WARP player last year and if he were fully healthy, I would rather have him and his $5.5MM contract that Cabrera’s behemoth of a contract.
However, I’d like to point out that Cabrera has a track record of being better than a 3 WAR player of his career, but last year he was just that. The move from 3rd to 1st hurt his value, and his offensive numbers were down. In the original fanpost, I mentioned players that Ellis was more valuable than LAST YEAR, which he was.
I may have gotten sidetracked and implied that Ellis is and always will be better than those players, but that wasn’t my intent. If I had to choose between 2008 Ellis and 2008 Cabrera, I do think you’d be foolish not to choose 2008 Ellis.
Nico's bowed out, I'd like to step in
If I had to choose between 2008 Ellis and 2008 Cabrera, I do think you’d be foolish not to choose 2008 Ellis.
Choosing the ‘08 Ellis for what? To look at and admire? I think if you’re going to be serious about making that pick you need to look at what are the alternatives to those two if you picked one or the other. In the A’s case, they had Ellis and chose Barton to play 1B.
That was a failure.
If the A’s could’ve switched Ellis for Cabrera they’re probably choosing between Petit and I don’t know… Brooks Conrad. Could either of those players produced better than Barton’s .2 WAR? I’d like to think so.
Plus, and maybe this was me missing a relevant point earlier in the thread, but you seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room. Offensive stats are tangible, a 3 WAR player who gets there based on plus offense and questionable defense owns a more solid 3 WAR rating then a 3 WAR defender because defensive stats aren’t as accurate. There’s less tangible there to truly support the assigned value.
But I go back to my original question, what are we choosing these players for? If its for future help in winning baseball games, I’m hard pressed to understand why its so foolish to choose the healthy, 26 year old power hitter who’s signed through 2015 over the 31 year old glove man with a rebuilt should. Does Cabrera cost more? Yes. But he still hasn’t hit his peak years and if you were really worried about his defense dropping his value then maybe you stick him at DH for the next half-decade and get a 4 WAR minimum player.
And the money’s really a pointless argument, ‘cause Teixeira already signed a FA contract that pays more than what Cabrera’s going to be making and if the A’s somehow get a wild hair up their bum and sign Holliday to an extension its a near lock that that contract would be worth more (at least on an annual basis, not sure if Holliday gets an 8 year deal) than Cabrera’s contract.
So maybe in terms of historical value Ellis ‘08 is/was a better choice than Cabrera ’08, but if you’re considering future wins for the Oakland A’s then you’ve at the very least got some hard thinking to do.
The monster at the end of this blog.
You're overanalyzing this to an absurd extreme
How the hell is money a pointless argument? 2008 Ellis is an underpaid 3 WAR player, while 2008 Cabrera is an overpaid 3 WAR player. Seeing as the A’s have very little money, I am hard pressed to see how this isn’t a legit point.
I would take 2008 Ellis over 2008 Cabrera, which is what Nico asked me. I’m not choosing Ellis’ career over Cabrera’s. What I’m talking about is in a 2008 vacuum so age is irrelevant.
I don’t really get what you’re trying to say about Petit and Brooks Conrad. 2B is a lot harder position to play than 1B, which is why Ellis positional RAR is about 2 while Cabrera’s is -10. The A’s don’t replace their first baseman with Barton, they replace him with a cheap Giambi because power hitting first baseman with no defense are easy to find.
I'm not the one over-analyzing here
In 2008 Barton was a .2 WAR player, I’m saying either Petit or Conrad could have provided that much production at the same cost as a replacement 2B if someone chose Cabrera over Ellis. Giambi doesn’t enter the equation if you’re talking 2008. If you want to argue in a vacuum, the relevant question is could the A’s have won more games with Cabrera at 1B and a different 2B while spending an extra $6.3 million in the process? If the answer is Yes, and the outcome is 2 wins or more then the math would say that Cabrera + whomever would have been the better choice than Ellis + Barton.
When you’re talking that slim of a margin I don’t see where you can claim considering Cabrera to be foolishness.
Forget about the money, in 3 of the last 4 years the A’s have spent more than $62 million on player salaries. They’d have spent $55.5 million in 2008 if they hadn’t fire-saled Swisher and Haren. The A’s have money to spend, its a question of spending it wisely. Maybe you don’t think Cabrera is the guy to invest $20 million annual in… OK, whom would you prefer?
The monster at the end of this blog.
This argument is ridiculous
Just because you have one statistic that says Ellis was better for one year than Miguel Cabrera doesn’t mean people are stupid for arguing with you. So maybe warp is the most infallible and brilliant statistic and has discovered that Mark Ellis, a player the A’s would not be able to trade for anything of any value who is barely hitting above the Mendoza line, was superior to Cabrera, who is almost certainly one of the top five offensive players in baseball, and we are all idiots to dare question this as anything other than fact. But since almost every other well known statistic that accounts for defense still has Miguel Cabrera’s 2008 season, which was unquestionably as much of a “down year” as he has had, leagues ahead of Ellis’. Even when you account for salaries, which have nothing to do with what you originally wrote about Ellis having the better season, there is no question. I could copy and paste a million of the statistics everyone else has written here but its just getting redundant at this point.
When you write something on here, just because you use one statistic to “prove” it does not mean that anyone who argues with you is a complete idiot who is ruining the conversation. Posting something that is very very arguable and controversial is going to draw arguments and controversy. If I wrote that according to (random statistic), David Eckstein is more valuable than Ted Williams ever was, I would expect people to argue with me, and if I wanted to defend that, I would use more than that one stat to try and justify my post. I know there’s more to your post than the comparisons and I’m sorry to move off topic, but its just mind boggling that you could actually believe Ellis was more valuable than Miggy in 2008. This is such a joke.
bring back rickey
Miguel Cabrera was nowhere near the top five offensive players in baseball in 2008.
The problem isn’t the stat (though WARP is nowhere near being infallible) — it’s cherry picking. He’s comparing Ellis in a good year to big name players in bad years, implying that Ellis is as good as the big name players, which he isn’t. (though he was in 2008)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Yeah--he was in 2008
And that’s really what I was only trying to say in the original post. When it was brought up in the discussion, I probably overreacted and implied that Ellis was always better than Cabrera/Fielder/Soriano, and I take the fall for that.
What pisses me off, though, is that when people disagree with me, they attack me instead of what I’m saying. I say his WARP was higher than them last year because his defense was aweosme—they say I’m talking nonsense. My evidence is WARP, their evidence is discrediting me.
I'm not sure how much of this comment was directed towards me but...
My goal was to defend the idea that considering Cabrera over Ellis in 2008 did not fall to the level of foolishness. I think that the offensive component of a stat like WARP is made up of more solid math than the defensive side of the equation, therefore when discussing two players with equal scores the guy with the offense-dominated number carries a stronger 3 than the guy with a defensive based 3.
So if any of that came out as attacking you I apologize, ‘cause that wasn’t the intent.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is the best arguement Ive seen in these WAR debates
That when there is uncertainty in the defensive side of the statistic it is better to have an offensively minded WAR player than a defensively minded one. This does assume however that you are risk adverse.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 18, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
per baseballprospectus
Last year Warp:
Ellis 3.9
Cabrera 3.0
Soriano 3.2
Fielder 3.1
Guerrero 2.8
this being said, most of those guys have also produced warps that were higher in most every other season than ellis.
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
Exactly
This… "because it seems that a lot of teams don’t value defense as much as the A’s. "… is exactly why the A’s have the worst offense in the league for the past 2 years. Offense and Defense are not equal parts. Apples and Bananas. It’s the reason Kotsay stayed around so long. It’s the reason Chavvy was signed over Miggy. It’s the reason Ellis was overpaid. Defense, Defense, Defense. Please.
by Colorado Fan on May 15, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Orlando Hudson is off to a good (and healthy) start
He’s getting paid $3.4M. The A’s are paying Ellis $5M. Of course, Hudson fell to the Dodgers because the free agent market tanked while Eliis signed with the A’s early in the off season. So it’s all hindisight…
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on May 15, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Hudson also has over $4.6M in incentives
$4.62M in performance bonuses: $0.15M each for 150, 175 PAs; $0.2M each for 200, 225, 250, 275, 300 PAs; $0.25M each for 325, 350, 375, 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, 525, 550, 575 PAs; 10,000 for each PA 576-632
For the record, he’s been over 500 PAs every season except one in his career.
He’ll make more than Ellis this year, and that’s practically guaranteed.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Thanks for the added research
That’s what happens when I only turn to the superficial player pages on ESPN.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on May 15, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
mlbcontracts.blogspot.com
It should be in every baseball fan’s bookmarks.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Maybe a lesser deal for Patterson
if the cards are really desperate.
I'm glad you tempered statistical value
with real-world value in the prospect selections you made. I don’t see the point in trading Mark Ellis, at least right now, because he has as little value as he possibly can. If I’m an opposing GM, I’m looking at Ellis as another injury waiting to happen, and wouldn’t be willing to give up much to get him. Given that fact, he’s worth more to us on the team than he’d net in return. In short, he’s some of our worst trade bait.
Jack Cust, on the other hand…
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
But would he be worth keeping for the next two/three years
If we can’t compete over the next two/three years?
He clears up about $5.5MM per year by being traded and gets us a couple of future pieces. And by being here for his whole contract, he’s blocking Cardenas as soon as next year.
Cardenas is a good point.
Whether or not Cardenas’ ultimate destination is second base is a significant consideration. If it is, then the A’s certainly need to be able to play him when he’s ready. That said, why trade him now, rather than wait for him to build up some more value? He could always be traded in the offseason, or at next year’s ASB.
I’m not too worried about the money. The A’s are in a very comfortable payroll situation, and I don’t see how the A’s are going to redirect those funds to something that’s going to make a big difference.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
If he comes back healthy and plays like normal Mark Ellis
Then he should have value, especially a team like the Cardinals whose biggest problem is infield defense (and bullpen, but still), who are competing with good teams like the Cubs in the NL Central. And if we have Holliday’s $13.5MM and Elllis $5.5MM off the books, the A’s can afford to sign a fairly big player—to draw attendance, to get a head start for the young A’s teams to come, and perhaps to mentor the young players. Like Giambi, but better.
It's possible.
I get the sense from the injury reports that by the time Ellis gets back, he will have very little time to reestablish value. Further, it’s likely it will take some time for him to round back into form. If he can clear waivers and be in play for the August deadline, it would be a significantly better possibility; it should also be clearer if we’re still playing for October by then. My point is that he’s some of our worst trade bait right at this moment. That could change.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I do, too.
It would be a matter of whether or not the claiming team had something we’d want in return.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Unless Cardenas plays third.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
I understand that 3B is easier than 2B
But as Crosby has shown, it’s not always the most seamless transition. If he were to be moved to 3B, I just wish they’d give him some time there. For the record, Donaldson got the start yesterday at 3B.
He shouldn't be traded at the deadline.
He won’t have enough trade value by then (which is the main point), and I don’t think Cardenas and/or Weeks will be ready to assume full time duty by then.
However, if he comes back healthy and puts up a (good) Ellis-like second half, he should definitely be traded this offseason.
Cardinals sounds like a natural fit, although if Luis Castillo goes back to sucking like he did last year, I could see the Mets as well. With Glaus a FA after the 2009 season, I strongly think Brett Wallace is very, very close to untouchable.
I could definitely see a package with one of Freese/Craig in it, although BB could probably get more for Ellis than just one of those two straight up. The Cards’ biggest need long term looks like starting pitching. Carpenter is a wildcard in terms of injury. Piniero is awful. Jess Todd is in the minors, but they don’t have much beyond him in terms of SP prospects. LH relief also looks like both a short and long term need, but they can easily, easily fill that void cheaply through FA.
Great analysis again, btw.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
Great stuff, NateHST
The way to a really great idea is to have a lot of ideas. Just exploring the reasons a certain trade would reap value is interesting and informative. Even just as an exercise amongst us non-FO folk.
Thanks for doing the heavy statistical lifting. Some of us cannot afford (out of the 24hr day) yet another distraction, such as chasing down player WAR comparisons!
"if you think that was a clear answer, you weren’t paying close enough attention." Larry Summers on Freddy/Fanny within the current economic crisis
by One won lost won on May 14, 2009 8:35 PM PDT reply actions
NateHST
I’m not knocking you Nate and I appreciate the work you did on your post but no one in their right mind would trade Cabrera or Fielder straight up for Ellis so I guess no matter what some stats say I’m gonna go old school on this one and still say that those stats make no sense to me.
Maybe at 35 I’m getting old but I’ve watched those players and I’ve watched Mark Ellis and to me there is no comparison.
Watching is the problem
Ellis makes amazing plays look ordinary, so we don’t see it as Ellis adjusting for each batter or getting a jump, etc. This is why Derek Jeter, who is a horrible defender in actuality is considered Gold Glove caliber by many. Also, since offense, esp home runs are more exciting to watch than a 2Bman stopping grounders and getting outs, people discount Ellis’ value. Since Ellis would most likely be undervalued on the market, especially since he is coming off an injury, it doesn’t make sense to trade him.
"Swinging and missing to me is like 'Jesus, what happened?'" Scott Hatteberg
by Razr on May 14, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's my main argument
To me, Ellis is a classic example of someone not to trade because he’s really good but he’s not sufficiently valued.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I understand this and see your point
But you have to ask the question, is Ellis going to help this team over the next two years?
If you replace Holliday with Cunningham, Giambi with Barton/Doolittle, O-Cab/Crosby with Pennington/Petit, lose Duke and Springer…you have a weak team. Will Ellis help us compete on that team? He’ll be an asset, but I don’t think we’ll contend. He also costs ~$5MM off the books; Holliday’s $13.5MM and Ellis’ $5.5MM could buy us a real hitter.
Saving to spend
One problem I have with this logic is you’re talking about trading Ellis if the A’s won’t be competitive anyway for the next few years, but you also argue that the money saved (combined with other money saved by trading or letting go Holliday, Giambi, etc…) can buy “a real hitter”, who presumably would also be wasted on an uncompetitive team.
Either we have a team that’s competitive and should be maintained/strengthened now, or we don’t and you trade off assets for more prospects and really build for the future (i.e., take the money from ML contracts and plow it into international scouting/development, draft bonuses above slot, etc…). You could also argue that the problem is the A’s have too many relatively expensive pieces that aren’t producing at a sufficient level, and that while the A’s aren’t competitive as configured now, they could be if you plug that money into higher-production players. But if that’s the case, then it again probably wouldn’t make sense to trade Ellis, who you’ve argued is good value for the money (when healthy).
by andyinfremont on May 15, 2009 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions
The A's don't need to free up the $5 million to buy a hitter next offseason
The math says that as long as the A’s are willing to keep the same budget in 2010 as they have this year ($63 million approx.) then they’d be able to afford a Tex sized deal (8/180) in the Winter. Things might get interesting come 2011, but by then the team will hold option years on Chavez and Ellis to the tune of $18.5/3.5 buy-out.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Do you advocate a tex sized deal
(just curious).
I’m kind of a fan of a mid-level starter (10M) + extra developmental or draft money.
Or, for at least a year or two, the A’s could continue to be dominant players in the Dominican (say, snagging the top 3 players each year, even if it costs 7M each).
Answer: yes, he is.
The only way you can say Ellis won’t help the team in the next two years is if you postulate that in any year where we don’t make the playoffs our record makes no difference.
There is value in winning 75 games rather than 70. There is value in winning 80 games rather than 75. There is value in winning 85 games rather than 80.
I just don’t agree with the all-or-nothing attitude that if we can’t make the playoffs we may as well be complete garbage because it doesn’t matter anyway. Paul Thomas used to base arguments on that premise all the time. I disagreed with him, and I disagree with you. I don’t want the A’s to be a crap team ever. Even if we can’t “contend”, I’d still like to at least win more games than we lose.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I don't condone throwing games
But I don’t see the point of winning a handful more games when you’re not going to the playoffs or even in the race. How do you think the Mariners felt when they swept a 3-game series against the A’s last year and won 61 instead of 58, thus losing out on Strasburg?
If you’re not going to compete with these players, then I think you should get the most value from them. That’s what happened with the Haren deal. They didn’t see anyway of competing over the next couple of years and Haren, even though he was signed to an extremely team-friendly deal, netted us a whole boatload of talent.
Or the A's losing out on Brett Wallace
Oh wait….
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Haren had enormous trade value.
Ellis doesn’t. He is more valuable contributing to the team than what he would bring in return.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
The most value for Ellis is to let him play.
We got a tremendous haul of prospects for Haren. That was a good deal.
For Ellis, you’re looking at a guy who is undervalued by the market. You’ve already acknowledged we wouldn’t be getting full value for him. The only reason you’re still considering trading is because you don’t get any more satisfaction out of 80-82 than you do from 63-99. I just don’t agree with that. Sure, I’d love to make the playoffs, but I also like watching the games, and when I watch a game I’d rather have a 50% chance of seeing a win than a 40% chance. That means a lot to me.
As for your Mariners question, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that 99% of the Mariners fans who watched those games enjoyed seeing their team win and have no idea who Strasburg is. And even of the 1% who had heard of him, half probably wouldn’t know that he’s that much better than whoever is the #2 pick.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Ellis is the difference between 80-82 and 77-85 not 63-99 ...
Trading him wouldn’t fundamentally alter the quality of the team …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
What about the lower minors?
You don’t get good value on players AA and above becasue they are so close to the bigs. Remember, Barton, Cardenas, Anderson, Carter, Donaldson, ect were all in the lower minors when we first got them.
If we really want to get value in return for Ellis we’d need a player or two from the Cardinals A+ or A- team.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
Ellis is the undervalued commodity that Beane likes.
I wouldn’t like to see him traded for that reason and for the reason that I just flat-out am emotionally attached to him. It’s nice to have players on the team that are veteran A’s and not all new kids on the block or one season signings.
by IM4Oakgal on May 14, 2009 11:25 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Don't get me wrong, I love Ellis, too.
I’m just looking at the possible scenario of trading him, the pros and cons of pulling the trigger.
Colby Rasmus=Overrated anyway
His 2007 season in AA was pretty great, but otherwise, nothing has been close to spectacular, which many are projecting him to be. And I do not understand why St. Louis brought him up this year. They should have kept Barton as their 4th outfielder and given him a year to actually hit in AAA. The guy is 22 and he’s being expected to produce, which he hasn’t come close to yet. Just doesn’t make sense for that organization, which apparentally had a surplus in the outfield, so Schumaker had to go to the infield.
Sorry, I’m just not a fan of him, and of anyone has anything to show for why he’s so great other than “he’s a 5 tool guy”, than by all means, show me…
He's still extremely young
He DOES have those tools. Last year he was battling injuries which led to the sub-par performance last year. He controls the strike zone and has lots of power potential. I can definitely see a .260/.350/.500 from him, while playing a premium CF, that’s real good. But obviously, I like him more than you do. But keep in mind, the injuries have skewed some numbers so far.
Stats be damned
I have no idea why AN loves Ellis. Yes, one year he hit over 300. Yes, one year he was truly robbed of a gold glove after an exceptional defensive display. But now? In 18 games this year he has already made 2 errors. And of course he’s hitting a terrific .206. Small sample size – maybe, but last year he hit a whopping .233.
Ugh – if we could get anything at all for him that would aid the big league club I would take it in a heartbeat.
Errors are a terrible way of measuring defense
Because in order to make an error, you have to be in the right place at the right time, so you have to do something right in order to make that error. You pretty much proved my point though, he’s been among the best defenders in the league for a few years but people don’t value him because defense is difficult to see value in.
To paraphrase Lord Tennyson
“’Tis better to have defended and lost than never to have defended at all.”
by LoneStranger on May 15, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Wow
I cant believe how overrated Mark Ellis is to some of my fellow A’s fans.
That is the problem with the A's
It’s great to have someone like him on defense. Him and a few others keep the team ERA down half a run or more but they cannot hit their way out of a paper bag. This team needs hitters for infielders who can field. They cost money or they can be drafted.
Having almost the entire infield who cannot hit will cost the A’s many more games than great fielding will help.
Not if the defense outweighs the offense.
Say two players play the same position. One is a wizard with the glove; he’s worth 10 RAR on defense, but -5 RAR on offense. Then you have another player who has a great bat but not good on defense; he’s worth 15 RAR on offense but -10 on defense.
Whether his name is Dan Uggla or Mark Ellis, the player is essentially worth the same to whatever team they’re playing on. Watching players that aren’t good hitters but are good defenders is frustrating to watch when you’re rooting for them to score runs, but it doesn’t matter to the team’s record. A 3 WAR player that’s a defense wizard like Ellis is just as valuable to a 3 WAR player that has stone hands and legs but a big bat.
Well
He’s not overrated to the league at large, but if you say that his defense puts him in the same league is Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder, you are overrating his defense. If you have a statistic that backs that up, it is overrating his defense as well. I appreciate good defense. But in my opinion having an excellent offensive player who is average at defense is worth way more than a excellent defender who is average on offense. Even with the best defensive players it would be a stretch to say that they make some amazing play that prevents a run from scoring once every two games or so. But a good offensive player will likely add much more than that one run offensively every couple games. Even the worst defenders in the league still make the vast majority of plays and fail defensively and cost their team a run maybe once every three games or so as well. If you ask almost any sabermatician, regardless of the position, excellent defense is worth a whole lot less than excellent offense. And regardless of Ellis’ defensive prowess, he could not be worse offensively.
bring back rickey
by yo on May 16, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Valuing Ellis more than Cabrera is...
the exact kind of nonsense that gets you the worst record and worst offense in the league.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
You can build a franchise around Cabrera's offense
Can you build a franchise around Ellis’ defense? Give the A’s Cabrera right now and they are instantly contenders in the AL West. Give the A’s Ellis right now and they’re…well, we’ve seen.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
True True
I wonder the legitimacy of some of the newer fielding statistics. One of my professors gave me a copy of this TV show from the Science channel that featured Bill James and the statistical approach to evaluating talent. A small portion of the show featured James taking about how he was trying to develop a way to consistently analyze fielding ability. The premise being in baseball, compared to other sports, all the action for the players takes place in symmetric specific zones on the diamond. I think the show is like three years old, but I mention it because the fielding analysis seemed to be in infancy.
I’d find it really tough to faithfully use these new stats if they are only a few years old. I mean, how do you even quantify an extra run scored from an opponent from a ball one guy doesn’t get to, and another guy supposedly could. There is just way to much chance variation. And then, even if a guy doesn’t get to a ball, that doesn’t automatically equate to a run for the other team. I dunno, maybe I need to do a little research on this fielding stuff, but regardless I’m not taking a punchless injury prone second baseman over a guy five years younger mashing 30HRs and 100+ RBIs.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
This is at most a business marketing argument
Sure, most people think way more of a hitter than a defender, but that doesn’t mean the hitter is actually more valuable than the defender.
If you want to actually make the responsive argument, make Devo’s argument above about using Ellis’ career year.
or even grovers argument
about uncertainty in defensive metrics.
Exactly
Give me a bunch of offense that can hit the ball out of the park.
You can have all the defense in the world and if the offensde cannot score more than 2 runs a game, you are screwed royally. See the A’s
Have fun with Cust at SS, Manny at 2B, Ortiz in CF, Giambi at C
Yeah good luck with that. Actually that WOULD be fun. Ridiculous, but fun.
The A's are averaging 4.38 runs per game ...
A team full of 2008’s Mark Ellis would score ~ 4.9 runs per game and be the best defensive team in the history of the game … Assuming a league average pitching staff (before factoring in Ellis’ defensive acumen), that team would win about 99 games (792 runs, 630 allowed). Mark Ellis would make those pitchers a lot of money and leave their future teams very, very disappointed …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 18, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Defense statistics
I just don’t understand how defense can be supported over offensive metrics. In the end, I suppose, it may even out… MAY because I do agree that these stats are only a few years old and so not yet established. On the other hand, I think that offense has to be more valuable, because offensive players can control their own destiny. In the late innings with the A’s down by a run or two, I am going to want one of the best hitters in the league over one of the best defenders in the league. Defenders can’t control where the ball is hit, and it is likely they won’t even touch the ball late in the game. Offense, meanwhile is a tangible necessity that always, always needs to come through to win games.
Thus, it seems to me that a game saving defensive plays happen far less than game winning offensive performance.
Also, if the A’s sit two games back with three left to play in the season, would you rather have a guy that can get hot and push the team over the top, or a guy that fielded a couple extra balls during the season? Ellis can’t just step his defense up to help us get a few extra wins at the end of the season.
But, again, that is just my opinion, I don’t have any statistics to back it up.
exactley
You don’t need stats because this is just common sense. Even in Moneyball don’t they talk about how much more valuable offense is than defense? This is why I think any statistic which weigh offense and defense equally is inherently flawed. And that would be the ONLY statistic that would value Ellis more than Miggy. I would take M. Cab over a theoretical player who is the BEST defensive 2nd baseman who ever lived and is an average hitter. And Ellis is not anywhere close to either of those things.
bring back rickey
It doesn't weigh offense and defense equally ...
the best defensive players are usually 20-30 runs above replacement. The best offensive players are about three times that.
Mark Ellis — when healthy — is pretty close to being both of those things, a truly great defensive player and an average offensive player.
The problem with the comparison isn’t the assertion that Ellis in 08 compares favorably to Cabrera in 08, it’s the erroneous implication of that statement, because it’s comparing Ellis near his best to Cabrera near his worst. In a typical season for each player, Cabrera is statistically clearly the better player — he just had a down year in 2008.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
true
But even in this “down year” I still think he was vastly more valuable than Ellie. .887 OPS with 37 homeruns and 127 RBIs is very valuable in baseball, and it would take a damn good arguement that Ellis’ defense saved as many runs as his offense vs. Cabrera’s cost.
by yo on May 19, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
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