Is it Time to lock up Cust long term?
by OmahaHi on May 13, 2009 2:44 AM PDT
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PrintLooking not so deep into the A's future one thing is very clear. The A's have little to no finacial obligations for players in 2011. They will have twelve (12) Arbitration (one) or (two) players, meaning the club still has two or more years of control over them before Free Agency. Just two players will be in there last year of team control, Jack Cust and Michael Wuertz..
Long gone should be Crosby, Chavez, Nomar, Giambi, Holliday and Ellis with there contracts big and small. The A's are going to have a boatload of money to spend soon. Should we lock up Cust now to a five year deal and keep control of him till the end of 2014?
Cot's Baseball Contracts mlbcontracts.blogspot.com (if the link does not work)
All Jack Cust has done for the A'sin his three years on the team is lead the regular players every year in OPS, HR's and RBI's. Sometimes by very large margins.
Player HR RBI OPS
Cust '07 26 82 .912
Swisher '07 22 78 .836
Cust '08 33 77 .851
Brown '08 13
Crosby '08 61 (yes he was second last year)
Sweeney '08 .749
Cust '09 5 17(2nd) .869
Suzuki '09 .848
Holliday '09 4 22 .692
I think Jack has proven that he is going to hit around 30 HR's a year and lead or be around the top of the team in OPS every year. Jack Cust is 30 years old and has no history of injurys and it's possible his best years are ahead of him. Do we need to wait and see? We have the money to spend. We can even be wrong and not have it hurt us that bad. If he really breaks out and hits 40+ HR and hits around .290 this year or next we flat won't be able to afford him if we let him get anywhere close to Free Agency.
As it is Jack Cust is probably worth a minimum $10 million a year on the open market. Players of similar rankings from Elias at the top end of the B free agent class of 1B/DH/OF are Jermaine Dye ($11.5 mill). Johney Damon ($13 mill), And J.D. Drew. ($14mill). Yes they are all making that from teams that have more money to spend and are position players of more value to a team but those are players with similar offensive value. Jack Cust may have even more value to the A's who have no other long-term OPS guys to support it. And he puts up his numbers in a notorious pitchers park that has destroyed the confidence of many great players.
Now the A's keep Cust out of Arb this year by giving him $ 2.8 mill for '09. It will probably cost us $1-2 Million more a year in '10 and even more again in 2011 with his numbers staying the same. He blows up and he could get $7-8 million his last year then be gone.
I say we offer Cust a contract somewhere in the range of 5 years at $37.5 Million. Starting at $4.5 million in 2010 and getting a Million raise ever year of his contract with his last year making $8.5 million. $5 Million signing bonus.
Why should the A's do it? He's worth $10 mill a year now. Why should Cust do it?, he gets paid more, sooner, with less risk down the road for him and a shot at one more big contract behind it.
Then we have a few more years before we have to worry about about Kurt Suzuki, Dallas Braden and any other's that step up and show they could be Keepers.
I think we need to make this happen sooner rather than later, preferably this season. Who's with me?
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He's been an absolute savior
having Cust around has kept this offense from being absolutely terrible. Now that he has some protection, Cust is showing that he can show some monster hitting, especially considering the fact that his two years in the bigs, he has been miserable his first month or two. I love watching him at the plate and watching him this year proves he’s got nowhere to go but up. I believe he can produce til at least 34 or 35, so why not keep him around at a reasonable rate until then?
But....
the striKKKouts!!!!! :X
The only thing that concerns me is his age….I think he is at his prime now, with a couple more seasons before he goes John Jaha on us…as much as the fan in me has a mad man crush on Sparta Cust, the business saavy thing to do is trade him within the next few years, while his value is at an all time high….this is standard “Oakland” A’s M.O. until a proper venue can be had that can generate more revenue to take a chance on Cust….jmho
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"Any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us." - Wolff
"Joe Morgan's going to think Beane wrote the movie too..." -whitshoes40
"What am I going to do, seriously? Maybe be a bouncer at strip joints. That's about all I'm qualified to do." -Giambi
those #'s feel high
and he is 30. We’ve got 3 arbirtation years – I would go ahead and use them
Dunn got 2 years, $20M, and Dunn’s better and younger than Cust – and was post-arbitration.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
I agree.
5 yrs is a bit long. Even if he is one of my favorite players!
Wang’s ERA is the same as the balance in my checkbook - Jennifer
I'm going to go out on a limb here..
and say that Dunn really is not better than Jack Cust.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on May 13, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd argue that he is. Not significantly mind, and we've certainly
got the better deal when you factor in contracts.
I'm wit you on this one VORP
And Cust is one of the few, positive constants on this team. I think his best years are ahead of him, quite frankly. I say lock him and Suzuki up long term. Do it Billy!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Seriously?
The same Dunn who has a 1.091 OPS, .456 wOBA, and 11 HRs so far this year?
The only way Cust could ever be considered better than Dunn is because Dunn has played on teams where the contributions of his wretched glove can’t be masked at DH. Even then, all things being equal, Dunn’s career UZR/150 for the OF is five runs better than Cust’s.
But Dunn doesn't like baseball!!
Seriously, though, he has always played in better hitter’s parks … they’ve been pretty comparable, though, obviously Dunn is off to a better start this year …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Question
Was Cust a Super-2 this year? (thus meaning he would go through 4 years of arb, meaning that he’s under A’s control through the 2012 season)
Or was he just a regular arbitration case (he’s controlled through the 2011 season then)?
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
Nope
He is a regular arbitration case.
His awards would be expected to be at approximately 40%-60%-80% of his market value for those three arby years in theory.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on May 13, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not sure they're ever
gonna have a “boatload” of money to spend, given revenue. Depends on how big the boat is, I guess. Queen Mary? No. sailfish? A little bigger, How about a “tugboat load”?
true, my point being we have no other obligations other than Arb players and whoever they may
sign in the next two years. Pretty rare for any team to have that little committed money even if it is a few years out
I just don't like long-term contracts
given to anyone at the peak of their career. Cust’s numbers will only decline after the next season or two. Meanwhile we have many good prospects, including some power hitters such as Carter, that should be ready to grab an OF/DH spot in the next couple of years. I would rather pay Jack a bit more for a 1-2 year extension than make a commitment that could logjam the system and stick us with a vet we don’t really want around (ala Chavez, Kendall, Crosby, etc.).
Voted no, too much
although I think 5/37.5MM would be very, very fair and a smart idea for the A’s if Spartacust were just a few years younger. He’s going to begin declining after 2-3 years, and having a declining DH is just a bad idea.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
5 years is probably one year too many
I agree that Cust is (and has been for the last two years) a cornerstone of our offense / one of the few bright spots. But I think that it is a stretch to say that his best years are ahead of him. Jack is pretty much the definition of someone with “old player skills” (check out here for some discussion on why you might not want to sign someone with old player skills into their mid-thirties).
On the other hand, we all know how rare it is to find someone who can produce offensively at the Coliseum. So my first thought is that the A’s should sign Cust through 2013 (i.e. 4 seasons after this one), which will be his age-34 season. But if he’s super-2, then maybe we can get all of his best years at a low price by going the arbitration/1-year deal route through 2012. It feels sort of dickish, but Oakland can’t afford to waste money.
No
Does Cust deserve it? Probably. But I’d rather go year-to-year with Cust. In 3 Years, I think we’ll be giving the DH Keys to Chris Carter. I’d rather save that money to lock-up Cahill/Anderson thru their Arby years (if they deserve it).
by Colorado Fan on May 13, 2009 8:57 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah, this is what I was trying to get at
I feel bad for saying so, but the A’s can get what they need out of Cust without shelling out for a long term contract. It’s a bummer for Jack that it took him so long to stick in the majors because he deserves the type of contract that other sluggers are getting.
Jack Cust is not going to have a long career.
Just enjoy him while he’s here.
Randy Winn is going to catch that. And he'll do it real classy-like too.
I think he could have been hitting like this in the majors for six seasons already
had somebody given him a chance.
His story really pisses me off, actually.
One dumbass Sporting News journalist essentially killed his top-prospect status, and no team was smart enough to really understand his skillset, even the A’s..
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on May 13, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
to be fair to the A's
2005 was the tail end of the Hatteberg era and 2006 Frank thomas was on the verge of signing from Aug of 05. Also Cust did have the wrist injury at that time. (04?)
One can argue that 05 was the time to use him, but he was coming off an injury and was blocked by Daddy. and the Dan Johnson experiemnt.
No ...
Jack Cust is a good player … but as a DH, he does not have much room to fall. When he hits free agency, it will be for his age 34 season. PECOTA sees a less than 50% chance that he’ll even be a full time player at that point (either due to productivity or health) … It sees him as being worth about $14.5m over the life of this proposed contract.
2-3 years, maybe … but that’s it … and I’d want the third year to be an option year …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 13, 2009 11:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Actually it will be for his age 33 season
But the rest of your points still hold.
That's true ...
my mistake …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Re: "no history of injury",
there is reason to believe that at least some of that is not repeatable.
Re: “old player skills”,
I am really impressed by the way that Cust has apparently adjusted his hitting style in 2009, fouling off more pitches with two strikes, and hitting more singles. It’s like he knows that was his weakness and rather than just accepting that he’s just a walk-or-homer kind of guy and being happy with it (as many of his fans recommended), he aspires to cut down the strikeouts without losing the other true outcomes.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I do wonder if this new jack cust is real
or if maybe we’re parsing a hot start over a small sample into a “change in hitting philosophy”.
You can see the change in approach
His sac fly tonight was an example, especially the 2-2 pitch he fouled off before the ball he hit.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And the 3 run double came on the 1st pitch
The old Cust would be looking at that.
He is cutting his K’s in half so far and adding many more singles in there which also produce runs
haha ya for some reason when i think about cust
he reminds me of john jaha
Happiness is only real when shared
No.
And I’m a big fan of Jack Cust, invariably defending him when people complain about the strikeouts or say he should modify his batting approach.
But he’s 30. The notion that “it’s possible his best years are ahead of him”… well, yes, of course it’s possible, but it’s not likely (well, at least not likely that his best years won’t be among the years the A’s already control). Rather, he’s exactly the type of player (slow power guy) who tends to get old sooner rather than later.
Here’s the thing about risk. If he blows out his knee next week, or if he ages abruptly and his performance falls off a cliff, the A’s are never on the hook for more than the balance of his yearly contract. The risk is always low, but if things go well they can keep him for each of the next two years after this one. If they signed him to a five-year contract, they’d be assuring themselves of two more years of Cust, while having to guarantee four more years of his salary. And the two extra years would probably be his two most expensive years, while also being the two years that project to be his least useful (because of age), and which are also the least certain (because they are so far off and so much can happen in the interim). It’s just not a smart exchange for the A’s.
Moreover, it’s not like he’s a gold glove shortstop. DH just isn’t that difficult a position to fill – heck, Cust is playing a lot of outfield right now because of all the candidates for DH. The odds of finding alternatives that are comparable or possibly better (certainly on a value-for-cost basis) than the age 33 and age 34 Jack Cust are not bad.
So while I love Cust, let’s keep him year to year, and when the end of the contract comes the A’s can evaluate the situation then. If the A’s still want him but get outbid (and competition for free-agent DHs isn’t usually that intense), then wish him good luck and move on.
Players like Cust
i.e. one-dimensional power hitters, don’t tend to age very well. Look at Travis Hafner, Mo Vaughn, maybe Papi — I remember people raising this concern about Carlos Lee when he got his ridiculous contract. Cust’s been a godsend but I’m happy to go year to year with him as long as possible.
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