Trade History has been horrible
by bajablue on May 11, 2009 9:35 AM PDT
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PrintI suggest that we look at our talent evaluators, scouts, decision makers. I think our history since the late 90's shows, well, our trades have been horrible:
- Hudson for C. Thomas, D. Meyers (Thomas was a bust)
- Ludwick for Carlos Pena (good trade poor patience)
- Carlos Pena and Bonderman for Lilly (horrible)
- Harang for J. Guillen (horrible)
- Teahen for Dotel (Teahne still productive in KC)
- Ramon Hernandez for Kotsay (bad back, good player)
- Kotsay for Devine (one decent year)
- Eithier for Bradley (Horrible)
- Kendall for Blevins (a wash)
- Byrnes for J. Kennedy & Witasik ( mistake)
- Swisher for Sweeney & Geo Gonzalez (looks like a mistake)
- Blanton for Outman (Country Joe is missed)
- Scutero for K. Bell (why did we do this?)
- Haren for B. Anderson, G. Smith, Eveland and Carlos Gonzalez (up to Anderson)
- Hardin & Gaudin for Murton, E. Patterson and Gallagher (a wash maybe)
What do you all think? I would love to have Swisher at 1B. Scuturo at SS. Brynes as our 4th OFer. Teahen as our 3B would be huge upgrade. Eithier is a middle of the order stud. Haren would have priced himself out but what a pitcher to lose.
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My comment is that I think you made up your mind on your overall conclusion and then wrote commentary to match ...
1. How can you include the Hudson Trade and not the Mulder trade? The Mulder trade was much more positive than the Hudson trade as negative.
2. Ted Lilly is a much, much better pitcher than Jeremy Bonderman.
3. Ramon Hernandez was only under team control for two more seasons — which, is about how long Kotsay had left as a productive MLer … extending Kotsay was a mistake, trading for him wasn’t.
4. Kotsay-Devine was a mistake? You’re nuts. Plain and simple. That BB was able to get anything for the corpse of Mark Kotsay was amazing — that he was able to get a very good young pitcher (albeit with some health issues) is simply astounding.
5. I’m going to stop this exercise because it seems pretty clear that no trade short of any absolute blockbuster of an ass kicking — like the Mulder trade you failed to mention or the Giants trading for A.J. — would meet with your approval, making this a silly waste of time …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 11, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 7 recs
Yup.
I had individually addressed the first 4 or 5 of these, but it’s a waste of time.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
I second that yup
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on May 11, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Thirded
Some of the trade you cite were good, while others you omit were better.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Fourthed
I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup
+1
Each one of these conclusions has been grossly over-simplified.
Oh come on
Of course Beane has had his stinkers. But you’re forgetting some pretty big successes
How about…
Ellis, Lidle and Johnny Damon for Ben Grieve, AJ Hinch and Angel Berroa— did you forget that one?
Or Mario Encarnacion, Jose Ortiz and Todd Belitz for Jermaine Dye— hardly BB’s fault that Dye broke his leg in the playoffs that year
Poor patience on Pena??? The A’s won the division in 2002 and 2003 while Pena was putting up mediocre numbers in Detroit— sure we could have waited 5 years for him to get really good.
The team didn’t have the money for a long-term deal for Haren. two of those guys landed Holliday— let’s see who we get back in return for him.
I don’t disagree on Ethier for Bradley— but again Bradley helped this team make its one and only appearance in the ALCS.
Byrnes is a shell of his former self
Have you seen Blanton’s ERA this year??
The Lilly trade was hardly “horrible”— Bonderman has not come close to reaching his potential. And Pena took two more organizations and 4-5 more years to reach his. The Lilly for Kielty trade was the mistake.
the Teahen trade is really a Chavez comment— yet Teahen no longer plays 3B. Dotel was necessary in a contention year— you have to make some trades like that.
Anyhow… this is a poorly constructed list without real context and missing some huge successes
The Hernandez/T Long deal was a wash— the bigger mistake was the contract the A’s gave TLong which forced that deal— but Ramon has been pretty hit and miss and we did get one very good year out of Kotsay.
You don’t mention the Mulder deal which produced a better pitcher than the one the A’s traded away, a pretty darn good reliever who helped the team win a division in 2006, and a 1B man with a lot of promise who the organization has been patient with.
by jasonthea on May 11, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
Bla Bla Bla
Dude, I don’t know how to recommend a comment, but jasonthe is dead-on. Just a self-serving list. The baseball landscape is littered with bad trades and BB is susceptible to them just as anyone. A trade is a calculated gamble. Potential for production. No one can accurately predict the outcome. Beane has some great ones and some bad ones as well. But the fact he is universally lauded is evidence that amongst his peers he is seen as a wizard. Right now we suck and in hindsight we would all love to have Marco and Pena et al back, but come on man, hindsight is 20/20. This is who we have now.
concocting something witty....check back frequently
by OptimistPrime on May 11, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
and more Bla
Dude, I have trouble seeing how that list serves this self. I’m a loyal A’s fan but asking questions about BB is equivalent to self-emolation on this site. Questions should be asked when you are near the worst team in the league. Nobody should be exempt. The wizard is looking a little frayed dude.
Baja been here
Gaaaaah!!!!! I can't believe how often this myth is propogated!
Beane is criticized plenty on AN. When you criticize him in a highly flawed manner and then are taken to task, it doesn’t mean you can’t criticize Beane on AN!
Sincererly,
Captain Obvious
cc: Captain Redundancy
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I criticized BB ...
I have disagreed with you because your evidence and conclusions are highly flawed, not because you’re criticizing BB. BB is among the best GMs in the game — but he certainly isn’t perfect.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Your missing some key players
-Blanton was for Cardenas, outman and spencer – (yet to be determined but the A’s saved some major cash)
-Hardin deal – included Donaldson (not looking great but again we saved good money, but murton and patterson were a bust)
-Mulder deal – Huge for us, got Haren, Barton and Kiko…..So mulder got us – Haren, then Haren got us the hull of players which includes C. Carter and cunningham – don’t forget.
- Not trading Joe B to Cin for Cueto or Votto is a huge mistake.
- Not trading M. Kotsay in his prime to NYY for Cano and Hughes – biggest mistake.
Huh??
No way Blanton would have gotten us Cueto or Votto.
Or Kotsay Cano or Hughes.
Cano + Hughes wasn't offered
Hughes was and Cano was the sticking point IIRC.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
If I recall correctly.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I would say that the non-trade to the Dodgers and Jays that was rumored was pretty bad.
The 3 team deal involving Dye and Koch to LA, Sheffield and prospects to Oakland, and Gagne to Toronto.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
If I recall correctly, Sheffield nixed that deal
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
He didn't have a NTC at the time, did he?
Everything I’m reading in my limited searching was LA being hesitant at sending Gagne to Toronto.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
What makes you think Blanton and Kotsay would've got us those guys?
Do you have any evidence supporting those claims?
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Even some of the “stinkers” you put on here were really good trades.
Haren also got us Aaron Cunningham and Chris Carter. It’s not up to Anderson. We demolished the D’Backs in that trade. Well maybe it’s not fair to say that, but last year Smith and Eveland as league average pitchers for the league minimum made that deal. CarGon and Street then got us Holliday. Plus we got a future LF in Cunningham and a future 1B/DH in Carter. Excellent trade.
And Hudson for Thomas and Meyer was a good trade. Hudson was in his walk year and Beane got a potential ace back for him in Dan Meyer. It’s not like Beane personally stabbed him in the arm and made him pitch through the injury. That’s on Meyer, not our scouting personnel.
Swisher for Gio, De Los Santos and Sweeney was a good trade. We got a league average CF. Gio, who had been in BA’s Top 100 for a while and is still learning his craft. And let me remind you that De Los Santos, before his injury, was ranked higher than Cahill and Anderson. The White Sox overpaid horrendously on this one.
Lastly, Devine has had “one good season” because he’s injured this year. They didn’t trade him away or anything. He’s our future closer, unless Bailey locks it down. For Mark Kotsay?! That’s an awesome deal!
by NateHST on May 11, 2009 10:16 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Okay
I may be off on the Kotsay deal. I didn’t saw that particular one was horrible – just that Blevins only showed us one year of promis. I left Muler out but not by design – yes that was a good one. So much of these trades can be picked apart or applauded up close and in detail. But, when you stand back and look at the net of all of them – we’re looking at a 90+ loss team with suspect potential help in 2010 shape in the minors.
Baja been here
Oi ... It was Devine, not Blevins that we got for Kotsay ...
When you stand back and look at this year’s team — well, first of all, it shouldn’t lead you to any grand conclusions about the history of the team, one way or the other — and, secondly, if anything, BB PROPERLY assessed that he did, in fact, have some pretty dang good in house options and that if he supplemented them with a few good bats, he’d have a good team. The problem, of course, is that Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera have, thus far, been disappointments. If they were playing to their normal standards, the offense would be a bit above average, to go with the above average pitching staff, leaving us with an above average team.
If you want to look at the bigger picture, it’s pretty clear that it’s not trades that have hampered BB — he’s done a great job in that respect — it’s long term contracts.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Exactly
Long
Kotsay
Dye (after broken leg— he wasnt fully healthy until he went to chicago)
Rhodes/Redman= Kendall
Loaiza
Ellis (wouldn’t have said this, before this year, but this has flipped to the negative side)
and of course the piece de resistance…. Chavez
Although wasn't the long-term contract one of the things that made Swisher a target for the White Sox?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
And moreso Haren to the D-Backs ...
The contracts he signed the Big Three to also saved the team a large chunk of change … but then he probably wasted most, if not all of that savings on Jermaine Dye, so …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
When you stand back and look at the net of all of them
You should include every deal, including the Mulder deal. You should also examine every piece that the A’s got in the deal, like Cardenas and Spencer, not just Outman. Otherwise you’re just picking and choosing to make your point and you’ve lost all credibility because you’re not just examining it, but you’ve got an agenda.
To be fair
I think he’s accidentally omitting, not intentionally. That doesn’t make his argument any better though…
Im going to disagree with you on the Hudson/Meyer deal
Charles Thomas was terrible. Also there were other deals on the table at the time (Hayden Penn and Erik Bedard from the O’s, the Mulder haul from the Cards) that were better.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
If I remember, it was (supposedly) Bedard, John Maine, and Penn
and I think Beane actually accepted the deal, but Baltimore backed out because there was no 72 hour window to negotiate an extension with Huddy.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
that is a fact
although the orioles wrecked penn
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Okay
That would have been an excellent deal. On the other hand, I still think if you look at Meyer’s numbers, he was a fantastic prospect, and it really wasn’t that bad of a deal. It ended horribly, but at the time, it wasn’t bad.
Any objective observer at the time would have rated Meyer a much better acquisition than Haren ...
that’s why they play the games …
Juan Cruz has also been a pretty valuable player for other teams, since we traded him … (a move that could much more reasonably be criticized than most of the others listed here …)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
But to say that Meyer was a bad acquisition
is false. In two and a half seasons, and four stops after being drafted, Meyer never posted an ERA higher than 2.87. Then we traded for him, he became injured, saw a drop in velocity and continued to pitch through it. The A’s got a good pitcher, and he turned into a bad pitcher because of injuries.
I still say it was a good move.
For Hudson and Mulder
we got four young players that had either a track record or a recent history suggesting major league potential (plus Cruz and Calero).
One became a star (Haren), one is still trying to put it together (Barton), one fell to injury (Meyer) and the other one failed (Thomas).
That’s pretty much how it goes with prospects.
Cruz was young with star potential ...
He was a much more valuable piece than Thomas …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
He was 26
and his last three seasons with the Cubs and Braves had ERA+s of 101, 72 and 157. Thomas had just come off of a season where he’d hit .288/.368/.445 in a half-season with the Braves.
I agree that Meyer for Hudson, straight up, was a good deal for Oakland
And any added pieces can’t make a deal any worse. Good trade, terrible outcome.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No
Remember TINSTAPP Meyer like all pitching prospects had a huge flame out rate. Hudson was expected to produce about 5+ WAR a season as an elite player. The likelyhood that any pitching prospect produces that not sufficient to trade him straight up for Hudson.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I happen to believe that TINSTAAPP (correct acronym)
is one of the single stupidest concepts ever claimed in baseball. Of COURSE there is a such thing as a pitching prospect. That’s exactly what they are: prospects. The person who invented that expression apparently didn’t even understand the meaning of the word “prospect.”
Is Vin Mazzaro assured of being a good major league pitcher? Of course not. Is he a pitching prospect? Well duh!
Thus ends this rant.
As for the trade, if the A’s traded someone just like Hudson for someone just like Meyer 5 times, they’d come out well more often than not. Unfortunately, this wasn’t one of the times.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wow being more wrong but adding silly to it now.
Good to see you’re the typo police. Of course they are “pitching prospects” the adage is suppose to remind people like you who clearly forget this that even top pitching prospects fail at a high rate not to suggest that they aren’t prospects.
This statement.
if the A’s traded someone just like Hudson for someone just like Meyer 5 times, they’d come out well more often than not.
Is an example of this:
From Sickles earlier this year looking back at the 50 top pitching prospects from 2004:
1) Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade A: One of the best young pitchers in the game. WAR
2) Ryan Wagner, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade A: Fumbling around due to command problems.
3) Edwin Jackson, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A: Progress has been slow but has had flashes of success.
4) Joe Blanton, RHP, Oakland Athletics, Grade A-: Developed into a solid inning-eater.
5) Scott Kazmir, LHP, New York Mets, Grade A-: Excellent when healthy.
6) Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-: Excellent.
7) Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
8) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
9) Gavin Floyd, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-: Looked like a bust until 2008. Can he sustain this?
10) Kris Honel, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade A-: Ruined by injuries.
11) Greg Miller, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A-: Injuries and control problems.
12) Jimmy Gobble, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Failed as a starter, has had some success in bullpen.
13) Ervin Santana, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Very very good pitcher.
14) Joel Hanrahan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+: Looked like a bust for awhile, but had a good year in 2008.
15) Merkin Valdez, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+: Injuries.
16) Blake Hawksworth, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B+: Injuries.
17) Jesse Crain, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Solid middle reliever.
18) John Maine, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Effective when healthy.
19) Angel Guzman, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Injuries.
20) Chadd Blasko, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Injuries.
21) Macay McBride, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: Mediocre reliever, injuries.
22) Taylor Buchholz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+: A nice solid bullpen arm.
23) Manny Parra, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+: Still putting it together, decent in 2008.
24) David Bush, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: A decent control artist starter.
25) Chad Gaudin, RHP, Tampa Bay, Grade B+: Flashes of success, not a bad pitcher.
26) Brian Bruney, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+: Average bullpen arm.
27) Bobby Jenks, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Successful closer.
28) Andy Sisco, LHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Good year in 2005, fell apart in ’06, command and health issues.
29) Francisco Cruceta, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: Hanging around Triple-A, as received just 26 major league innings.
30) Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Looks good so far, can arm hold up?
31) Joel Zumaya, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B+: Has been successful when healthy.
32) Dan Meyer, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: Injuries.
33) Denny Bautista, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Control problems, never harnessed stuff.
34) Jason Young, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Injuries.
35) Sean Burnett, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Injuries.
36) Chin-hui Tsao, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Injuries.
37) Travis Blackley, LHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Hanging around Triple-A. Finesse pitcher bust.
38) Jeff Francis, LHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Successful when healthy.
39) Clint Nageotte, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Injuries and control problems.
40) Josh Banks, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Quadruple-A type, good control but lack of stuff holds him back.
41) Jon VanBenschoten, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Injuries.
42) Boof Bonser, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Good rookie year in 2006, has struggled since.
43) Ricky Nolasco, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Very impressive 2008 season.
44) Ian Oquendo, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Now Ian Snell. Has had some success but not consistent.
45) Chad Cordero, RHP, Montreal Expos, Grade B: Pitched great 2004-2007, then hurt in ’08.
46) Kevin Correia, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B: Good seasons in ’06 and ’07, useful utility pitcher.
47) Ryan Madson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B: A very good relief arm.
48) Dustin Nippert, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Injuries have rendered him a below average pitcher.
49) Dustin Moseley, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B: Below average pitcher.
50) Grant Balfour, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B: Solid bullpen arm when healthy.
26 of those pitcher I would conservatively consider failures. And that doesn’t even factor in the discount rate of WAR now vs later.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
That Nico can't defend his arguments.
The idea that an elite pitcher for even one season is only worth Dan Myer isn’t borne out by either the market, which routinely pays much much more, or results based evidence.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see him having trouble defending his arguments
I see you having a problem accepting his point of view because it doesn’t mesh with yours.
Basically after five years that list is a 50/50 split, but of the people who haven’t really been successes 14 of them have been classified as derailed by injuries, either in part or in whole. Due to those injuries those players never even really had the chance to succeed or fail based on their performance on the field.
Obviously if a trade is going to be made where you give up an elite pitcher for a prospect (or in most cases, prospects), you aren’t making that deal with the expectation a prospect’s career is going to be impacted by injuries. This is certainly the case with Dan Meyer, who – as has been noted before – pitched extremely well in the minors before the trade.
If Meyer remains healthy, there is absolutely nothing wrong with suggesting the trade could have or would have been more of a benefit to the A’s than it ended up being, even to the point of them coming out ahead over time. The fact is Hudson was not going to remain here with the money he’d command from a new contract. From there it becomes a case of when you trade him (vs. letting him walk) and what you get for him. Meyer didn’t work out, more because of injuries than anything else. That’s the way it goes sometimes, but at the time he was an excellent prospect to get.
Aside from that, I’m starting to think you have a thing for going after Nico.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Several quibbles.
you aren’t making that deal with the expectation a prospect’s career is going to be impacted by injuries.
Why not? I have just shown above that a majority of very good (top 50) pitching prospects wash out. Only 20% actually have a fair chance at getting to the necessary WAR to make a 1:1 deal a good one. So why wouldn’t you assume that what happens 80% of the time is a highly likely outcome?
Nico said something which I consider to be quite dumb, that a straight up trade of Hudson for Meyer was likely to work out more times than not. This is not borne out by the market (if Nico’s statement was true the Braves would have said “we’re not going to include more than Meyer since the trade is already in your favor”) or evidence (shown below that there is only a 20% likelihood that Meyer would make the trade worth it. Also 40% of the successful cases were top 10 pitching prospects which Meyer never was). If you think I have a thing for picking on Nico, I probably do, but only because he very rarely supports his arguments with data and is in a prominent position on the blog which makes his sweeping false generalities carry more wieght because of his position..
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions
So are you suggesting a GM makes a trade thinking...
…“Well, this guy’s probably got a 50/50 shot at having major injury problems but you know what, I’ll do it anyway” or something like that?
Not all points or arguments need to be supported with full, in-depth data in order to talk about them. That would get boring fast.
I have no problem with people offering opinions with or without statistical analysis to back it up, and if that’s your expectation regardless of someone’s position on AN then I guess that’s up to you.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Yes, I expect GMs to consider the downside of their moves before making them.
Which is one of the reasons why the Haren trade was such a good one. Beane got a diversity of high end talent which minimized the risk that any one player went down.
I don’t think that all opinions need to be supported with a full in-depth analysis, as you’ll notice that I didn’t in my first reply to Nico. However, when you make a statement that is questioned like a 1 for 1 trade of Meyer and Hudson would work well the majority of the time, you should have something to back it up beyond I said so.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
And you know what?
For what it’s worth, though it’s just a little over a month in, Meyer’s pitching pretty darned well for the Marlins so far. One stat, his SO/BB ratio, is closer to what it had been in the Braves system and it was terrible in the A’s organization. His SO/9 ratio has also climbed higher again.
If he can remain healthy it looks like he’s still got something left.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Meyer is in the bullepen...
and will be unlikely to be able to get enough innings to accumulate enough WAR to make the deal good. It is significantly easier to be a ok bullpen arm than an ok starter and are a dime a dozen to find.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
So WAR is only valuable for starters, or what?
If he’s a bullpen guy the rest of his career then so be it, but pitching effectively is pitching effectively. I don’t really care if WAR supports that or not for a relief pitcher.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
No
What it says is that the ability to find bargain basement bullpen guys is much higher than the ability to find starter. The Jeff Tam’s of the world aren’t that hard to find.
Being a relief pitcher just isn’t very valuable.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Yet every team needs good bullpen arms
So like devo said, maybe another method of judging relief pitchers is needed if WAR doesn’t cut it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Lets put it this way...
some bullpen arms do cut it. On that list Jenks and Wainwright both have pitched in the bullpen. However, you must be truly an elite bullpen arm to get to that level, which makes sense. The number of innings that a bullpen pitcher pitches is about a third of a innings eating starter.
Failed starters become relievers for a reason.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
But the innings that a good reliever pitch
are significantly more valuable than the innings a typical starter pitches …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
True
but I hate WPA/LI stat. I don’t understand how a pitcher who pitches a perfect game in a blow out should get less credit than one who pitches the same game in a 1 run victory.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
That's fine ...
but just because you aren’t satisfied with a stat doesn’t mean we should ignore the concept it’s measuring.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Well
I don’t think that leveraged stats are a good way of showing the talent that a player has. Clutch perhaps but not more talented. My problem is that teams that play close games or aren’t any more talented than teams that win big and lose big.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
In terms of relievers ...
they do a relatively good job of showing how much they contribute to a win … we’re not measuring talent, we’re measuring results an, in order to compare apples and oranges, we need to compare the values of those results …
While pretty much any high end starter would make a great closer, yes, I agree, it’s BS to ever consider a closer for MVP/Cy Young — plenty of solid starters likely wouldn’t. The roles require different skill sets.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
If they work out a third of the time ...
then in the six years under team control, they’re, on average, going to easily outproduce on year of Hudson …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Where are you getting a third?
Im seeing it as more than half? Which would require 11WAR in the first six years of team control to make the expected value greater than a 5.5 win Hudson season. That does not include the discount rate or the increased value of having an elite player.
Players on that list that have or have a realistic chance at 11WAR
Zack Greinke
Joe Blanton, RHP
Scott Kazmir, LHP
Cole Hamels
Rickey Nolasco should get there if healthy
Jeff Francis
Felix Hernandez
Bobby Jenks probably won’t but there is a chance
Adam Wainright should get there
Manny Parra could make it
Thats it. Bullpen arms almost never accumulate that many wins.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm making up a hypothetical number
that seemed conservative, but realistic based on a quick glance at that list …
You have to remember to factor in guys who are vastly exceeding that 11 WAR — Kazmir, for instance, if he stays healthy, he’ll cover the necessary WAR for three players — if he doesn’t, it’ll just be two. Same with Felix Hernandez.
WAR isn’t a fair metric to compare starters to relievers — you need to use a metric that factors in leverage.
Also — 5.5 wins is what we’d expect in a more or less healthy season from Huddy … you have to discount that some, based on the very real possibility that he didn’t stay healthy.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
It was an average on the three previous seasons which also included missed time.
As for the bullpen guys they are easily found and replaceable. Thats the whole point. Even going to a bullpen and being a good bullpen guy isn’t nearly as valuable. AA starters who wash out (see Baily, Andrew) can become crucial cogs in the bullpen.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
He averaged 31.3 starts per season over those three years ...
that’s not exactly accounting for a lot of downside …
If going to the bullpen were that easy there probably wouldn’t be so many teams with crappy bullpens — and, regardless, that would be accounted for in the R aspect of the stat.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
This is a fair argument.
Perhaps I should be discounting Hudson’s value more. However, I didn’t discount future wins being less valuable than current wins or discount the value of having an elite season versus wins spread over time.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
FWIW, I agree with your assesment
that Meyer for Huddy, straight up, would be inadequate.
That’s despite the fact that PECOTA had Huddy dropping from an average VORP of 66.1 over the previous three to 31.8 after the trade, continuing to fall off slightly from a down year in 2004.
Dropping from about 6 wins, in their system, to about 3, which lowers the benchmark substantially …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
It does
However from a Dec 2004 mindset, I don’t see why that would be expected as a projected rather than a low end outcome. Did his PECOTA show a high likelihood of collapse?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Moderate ... 18%
I wish I could go back and look at his full, online PECOTA card from back then …
But he was a pitcher with a bad pitcher’s body, coming off a down season, where he struggled with injuries, a decline in production and a precipitous drop in his k-rate.
PECOTA pretty much nailed 2005 … he was a little healthier than it expected, but otherwise was not the pitcher the Braves hoped to be getting. We’d be talking about this deal very differently if not for his dramatic bounce back in 2007 and 2008 …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I think that 18% is ~ the discount in elite vs spread out and the discount of long term wins versus short term wins.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's Sickels on the top 50 hitting prospects:
1) Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins, Grade A. I’d say this one turned out very well.
2) Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland Athletics, Grade A. Started off decently, but injuries seem to have ruined him.
3) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A. Still has the tools and flashes the skills, speed, walks, some power, but hasn’t lived up to expectations. Injuries have been a factor.
4) B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay, Grade A. Just getting started. Results have been somewhat erratic, but 2007 was excellent.
5) Casey Kotchman, 1B, Anaheim Angels, Grade A: Aside from a good year in 2007, hasn’t lived up to expectations. Injuries have not helped.
6) Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins, Grade A: He’s really good.
7) Andy Marte, 3B, Atlanta Braves, Grade A-: Huge bust it looks like. Just never grew from where he was.
8) Jeff Mathis, C, Anaheim Angels, Grade A- Bat never got going, textbook case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome. The term is descriptive more than analytical, and I’m working a piece right now about the history of catching prospects.
9) David Wright, 3B, New York Mets, Grade A-: An outstanding player.
10) Jeremy Reed, OF, Chicago White Sox, Grade A- Couldn’t sustain the high batting average. Didn’t pay enough attention to BABIP.
11) Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians, Grade A-: Outstanding player.
12) Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A-: Outstanding player.
13) Scott Hairston, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+ Not great obviously, but he’s had flashes of success.
14) Alexis Rios, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Solid regular outfielder.
15) Josh Barfield, 2B, San Diego Padres, Grade B+: Quite disappointing. Second basemen sometimes seem to stagnate as well.
16) Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay, Grade B+: Still trying to put things together, but still very young.
17) Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Has had a very fine career.
18) David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Solid player, not a star.
19) Mike Aubrey, 1B, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: Ruined by back injuries. Bust.
20) Dallas McPherson, 3B, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Back injuries and strikeouts. Could still have a career as a role slugger, but don’t expect a good average.
21) Dioner Navarro, C, New York Yankees, Grade B+. Good year in 2008 and still rather young.
22) Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego Padres, Grade B+: He’s not great, but can’t call a guy who holds a regular job for that long a ‘bust."
23) Guillermo Quiroz, C, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Great in Double-A at age 21, but never hit after that and has had injury problems. Bust.
24) James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+: A very fine young hitter.
25) Gabe Gross, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: A useful role player.
26) Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Undone by poor strike zone judgment. Bust.
27) Brent Clevlen, OF, Detroit Tigers, Grade B+: Bad plate discipline has held him back. Probably a bust but still a slight chance.
28) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins, Grade B+: Excellent in 2007, not as good last year. Still young.
29) Jose Lopez, SS, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Solid regular.
30) Aaron Hill, SS, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+ Not a bad player when healthy.
31) Sergio Santos, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+: Was always young for his leagues, but that wasn’t enough in the end. Bust.
32) Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston Red Sox, Grade B+ A terrific player.
33) Larry Broadway, 1B, Montreal Expos, Grade B+: Topped out as a minor league slugger. Bust.
34) Jason Lane, OF, Houston Astros, Grade B: Effective in 2004 and 2005, then tailed off fast.
35) Chad Tracy, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Very good 2004-2006, but has tailed off since then due to injury.
36) Chris Burke, 2B, Houston Astros, Grade B: Wasn’t hanlded well, bat stagnated, injuries, didn’t adjust his minor league numbers sufficiently.
37) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Texas Rangers, Grade B: Needed some adjustment time but a fine regular.
38) Justin Huber, C, New York Mets, Grade B: Traded to Royals, converted to first base, had some injuries, bat looks like it has topped out in Triple-A. Probable Bust.
39) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta Braves, Grade B: A solid regular.
40) Russ Adams, SS, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B: Just didn’t hit in the majors.
41) J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B: Solid regular.
42) Corey Hart, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B: Solid player.
43) Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B: Too soon to know for sure, but I still think he will be a solid player, though not a star.
44) Shin-soo Choo, OF, Seattle Mariners, Grade B: Career .291/.377/.493 hitter in 509 at-bats. Hard to call that a bust, even if he doesn’t get playing time.
45) Jeff Francouer, OF, Atlanta Braves, Grade B: Lack of plate discipline is holding him back and may ruin him.
46) Aaron Baldiris, 3B, New York Mets, Grade B: Bust. Line drive guy just didn’t develop enough.
47) Delwyn Young, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B: Looks like he is stuck as a role player.
48) Erick Aybar, SS, Anahiim Angels, Grade B: Still unclear how his career will develop.
49) Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Anaheim Angels, Grade B: He can hit a little, but perhaps not enough to be a full-time regular for a good team.
50) Cody Ross, OF, Detroit Tigers, Grade B: Career .261/.324/.493 line can’t be called bust. Useful bat.
I count 22 I consider busts in that list. So hitting prospects, according to a fairly small sample, are all of 8% more likely to succeed than pitching prospects.
I had stayed out of this discussion until this post...
The #2 hitting prospect was Bobby Crosby… how the fuck could so many people have missed on this guy?!?! Yes, injuries hampered him but they do not explain his stubbornness in making adjustments.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Cruz had great stuff ...
a high strikeout rate and seemingly improving control of the strike zone … Charles Thomas was the same age had a fluke season, buoyed by an unsustainable number of IBBs and a presumably, but maybe not actually, unsustainable HBP rate …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
But Cruz was arbitration eligible and would soon be out of our price range anyway.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
We had him for three years (I believe) ...
compared to 5 for Thomas …
But they were the same age — and those three years were more than likely going to be a lot more valuable than Thomas’ five, as they have been in spades.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
True
Im suggesting that because his arb years were ahead his value is diminished even more than what it would have been otherwise.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
My main criticism of the trade is that there wasn't enough divirsification of risk
We got a old OF prospect with a fluke season, a mercurial reliever who wanted to start who was about to get expensive fast if he succeeded, and a good but not elite pitching prospect, for an elite pitcher. There were also better offers on the table according to Gammons who said that the Cards had the same three players on the table for Hudson that they traded for Mulder.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Well ...
Perhaps he could have gotten the Mulder package for Hudson … but if there wasn’t a Hudson or better package available for Mulder from some other team, we’re losing in net.
From what I’ve heard, the Orioles deal wasn’t actually on the table … I mean, if there is actual evidence that there were better deals on the table, well, that’s one thing … but rumors from the mill don’t really tell us that much …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
We didn’t just get Josh Outman for Joe Blanton. The real prize in the deal was infielder Adrian Cardenas and we also received outfielder Matthew Spencer. I actually liked that deal.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on May 11, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions
I disagree but
I don’t keep track of the minors much past the Cats. I just think when you trade a healthy guy who can go every 5th day and turn in 180 innings a year you need something better than what we got.
Baja been here
We got a 5th starter for the league minimum
Our future second baseman, and a wild card in Spencer that has oodles of power potential. If you’re going to analyze trades, you need to know something about the pieces the A’s received.
Spencer has 10 HRs with an OPS of .911 in 30 games so far
Along with Corey Brown, Cunningham, Carter, Doolittle, those are all pretty good power threats for corner outfield spots.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on May 11, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Really he doesn't move slowly especially for a guy that size
Ive read reports that his arm will play well in RF
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
He may have a decent arm, but he's an awful fielder
And he’s barely capable of playing 1B, let alone an OF position. I think we’ll be lucky if he becomes a league average first baseman.
1b and RF require different skills
Outfield doesn’t require the same quick twitch skills.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Well there's your problem.
You can’t just throw out everyone below AAA and call it a wash. Cardenas was, in case you’d like to know, batting .372/.443/.590 in Midland before being promoted to Sacramento.
I still think Cardenas was rushed to Triple-A. That may have to do with the call-ups from the infield spots, but still, I think he should have been in Double-A for a little bit longer.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on May 11, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
These aggressive system-wide promotions are a bit concerning as of late
But then you also have guys in Kane County hitting and pitching well and yet they remain there. Also, Spencer seems due to a promotion to AA but may be blocked by other prospects. And lastly, we still haven’t seen anything from H-Rod, Weeks, Dixon, Leyja, all still playing/recovering in anonymity (aka extended spring training).
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on May 11, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Cardenas is the organization's ONLY 3B OR SS prospect
who is likely to see the big leagues before 2012. How can the Blanton trade be criticized when not only is Blanton pitching terribly but it is the only trade the A’s have made where they have actually addressed one of their two biggest needs?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
he seems to have settled in at AAA
he’s 5 for his last 13 with 3 doubles and 5 RBI. only 1K…though no walks.
for now he’s been spending all his time at second base
Um...
How can you argue for process based trade outcomes when you say
How can the Blanton trade be criticized when not only is Blanton pitching terribly?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Um...
the “not only” part, which goes on to make the bigger point.
Anyway, the cherry-picked part you block quote just says, in effect, that it’s not as if Blanton’s performance right now would have you pining for him right now. It’s not an argument about process based trade outcomes in any way, shape, or form. It’s not even an important part of the comment, just a throwaway line in casual conversation (yes, some of us come onto AN not to present dissertations that should be cited later, but rather to chat in real time).
What IS important is that Blanton has never been a great pitcher – he’s a good pitcher – and to get Cardenas, as well as a couple other decent pieces, for him was a nice haul regardless of how Blanton happens to be performing the first 5 weeks of 2009.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This ...
What IS important is that Blanton has never been a great pitcher
is wrong. It severely neglects the elite season that Blanton had in 2007 when he was the 6th most valuable pitcher in all of baseball posting 5.7 WAR.
Secondly, the fact that you added it to the sentence implies that if he was pitching well at this point that it would be appropriate to reevaluate the trade.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Since you keep citing it
can you do me a favor and tell me what the heck “WAR” is?
I tried googling it in combination with “baseball”, “statistics”, etc., but all I get is baseball with World War II, the war on drugs, etc.
I don’t need a detailed analysis. Just tell us what it stands for, what it measures, and what is a good number.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Thanks, Z
Didn’t they used to call that “WARP”? I was actually familiar with that one, I just didn’t realize the acronym had been changed.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Sorry for the confusion... WAR is what Fangraphs calls it.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 12, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Dusty Coleman
I disagree Nico. With the way he is hitting there is no reason that Coleman can’t end the year in Stockton, split AA/AAA in ’10, and be in Oakland by Sep. ’10 or ’11.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on May 12, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
That'd be nice
He just turned 22 (I had thought he was a little younger for some reason), so Opening Day, 2011 is totally realistic. That would support a trade for JJ Hardy, who is signed through 2010. Thanks for clarifying.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So what you are basically saying is you disagree but you don't really know what you are talking about?
I would have thought that when assessing a trade for a package of prospects you would need to take those prospects into account.
Going through the ones you listed, with some corrections.
•Hudson for C. Thomas, D. Meyers (Thomas was a bust)
-Trade was actually Tim Hudson for Charles Thomas, Dan Meyer and Juan Cruz. This trade was a bust. Cruz, after a horrible year with the A’s, was dealt for Brad Halsey, who also failed us. Cruz, however, became the best player out of the package the A’s received, becoming a solid middle relief pitcher. But overall, this trade was a bust for the A’s.
But you have to judge a trade by when it was made, not quite what happened next. Tim Hudson was leaving for Free Agency after the season, so the A’s decided to get as much as they could for him before then. They traded Huddy to his home town, and in return got one of the top 5 Pitching Prospects in baseball, a solid Relief Pitcher/Possible Starter, and a Defensive Replacement CF who was coming off an uncharacteristically good year. What happened afterwards was Meyer hurt himself in Spring Training and hid the injury, ruining his career, Cruz became a headcase in Oakland and forced a trade, and Charles Thomas was always a bust. The components of this trade were very similar, if not identical, to the Mulder trade which was a success, in which the pitcher was dealt for a Top Pitching Prospect, a Good Relief Pitcher and a Prospect.
•Ludwick for Carlos Pena (good trade poor patience)
•Carlos Pena and Bonderman for Lilly (horrible)
You can discount any contribution Ludwick and Pena are giving now from the trade. Both players hit the waiver wire and minor league free agency several times with several teams before finally latching on and hitting. Bonderman has been pretty bad in his time with Detroit, and Lilly was pretty good for the A’s.
•Harang for J. Guillen (horrible)
At the time of the trade, it was a standard reclamation project by the Reds for a hitter for the second half for the A’s. Hindsight says it was bad for the A’s, but we must remember that Harang looked like AAA/AAAA Fodder at the time of this trade. Harang was that one in a hunderd where a team picks up a guy who excels in a new environment, or fixed a pitch. And its ironic that he did it in a hitters park when he couldn’t do it in a pitchers park.
•Teahen for Dotel (Teahen still productive in KC)
The actual trade was:
A’s: Octavio Dotel
Royals: John Buck ©, Mark Teahen (3B), Mike Wood (SP)
Astros: Carlos Beltran
The winner of the trade is obviously the Astros, who got Beltran, who had an awesome second half for the Astros. The A’s got exactly what they wanted and what they paid for, a closer when Arthur Rhodes was falling apart at the seams. And the Royals got a decent catcher, a decent utility infielder, and a bust pitcher.
•Ramon Hernandez for Kotsay (bad back, good player)
Was an even trade at the time. The extension was the bad idea. But it also hurt the A’s pitching staff as it forced the A’s to acquire Damian Miller, who was not that great with the A’s, but did net a draft pick. I notice that trade is not here though.
•Kotsay for Devine (one decent year)
-I would say the A’s won this trade. They have 4 or 5 more years of an injury prone, but great reliever/closer at cost of a broken CF now turned into Darin Erstad.
•Eithier for Bradley (Horrible)
-At the time of this trade, this was considered a win for the A’s. Ethier was just a prospect (albe a decent one) in Double A, and the A’s got a superstar quality player in Bradley. Unfortunately, Bradley exploded again in Oakland.
•Kendall for Blevins (a wash)
-Win for the A’s, as Kendall really really sucks, and the A’s were not going to offer him arbitration. Blevins is a serviceable LOOGY.
•Byrnes for J. Kennedy & Witasik ( mistake)
-At the time, Byrnes was a 4th Outfielder trying to make 3rd. Kennedy and Witasick were decent pitchers, though Witasick’s stats were somehow better than normal. He fell back to earth when he got to Oakland and sucked. Kennedy as well was pretty poor. Byrnes, however, was horrible in Colorado AND Baltimore, before finally catching fire in Arizona.
•Swisher for Sweeney & Geo Gonzalez (looks like a mistake)
-The trade was Nick Swisher for Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos. All the players in this deal have had a hard time, with Swisher having by far the worst season of his career last year. He has recovered this year, but not before the White Sox gave up on him. Gio Gonzalez still has the potential to be a 3rd or 4th starter, and Sweeney is our everyday CF (until Corey Brown is ready). FDLS injured his arm and got Tommy John Surgery, but should be back soon, hopefully as the great pitching prospect he was before.
•Blanton for Outman (Country Joe is missed)
-Trade was actually Joe Blanton for Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman and Matt Spencer. Spencer is doing well in High A Stockton, Adrian Cardenas is now probably the top 2B Prospect in baseball after tearing up Double A Midland this year before his promotion to Sacramento, and Josh Outman is now a serviceable 5th Starter/Long Reliever/LOOGY. Pretty good for a League Average pitcher.
•Scutero for K. Bell (why did we do this?)
-This trade was a salary dump. The A’s wanted to free up money by not having an expensive utility man on the bench. Why did they trade Scutaro? Because no one would take Crosby.
•Haren for B. Anderson, G. Smith, Eveland and Carlos Gonzalez (up to Anderson)
-This trade has thus far been a great success. The trade was actually Dan Haren for Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter and Aaron Cunningham. Cunningham looks to be our starting Left Fielder either next year, or this year if Holliday is traded. Chris Carter is tearing up Double A in preparation for being our 2011 Starting 1B or DH. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were flipped to get us Matt Holliday. Brett Anderson is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. And Dana Eveland keeps flipping between a solid 4th starter and a headcase. The DBacks got exactly what they wanted in return though, a sure Ace.
•Hardin & Gaudin for Murton, E. Patterson and Gallagher (a wash maybe)
-Harden is hurt, Gaudin was released. Patterson is an AAAA player, Murton was dealt for Wimberly after failing miserably. Gallagher is a headcase who could be a #3, but can’t seem to figure out what he is. The Cubs won this trade thus far, but its not that big a difference.
You chose some weird trade comparisons. I mean, if you are going to bring up bad trades, you left the baaad ones out.
Like Lilly for Kielty, Rhodes and Redmond for Kendall (though that was a wash), even Nelson Cruz for Kieth Ginter (though like Pena and Ludwick, Cruz went through several organizations before mysteriously becoming good).
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on May 11, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 7 recs
Thanks for the proper breakdown!!!!!!!!!
The evaluations were on the spot and I have to agree with pretty much all you wrote…
"Where's the beef?"
Haren wasn't really considered a top prospect ...
He technically wasn’t even a prospect at that point — but the “prize” (most comparable to Meyer) in that deal was Barton … unfortunately, thus far he is looking more similar to Meyer than Haren …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Little over two weeks.
Erick Byrnes @ Baseball Reference
July 13, 2005: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Omar Quintanilla to the Colorado Rockies for Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasick.
July 30, 2005: Traded by the Colorado Rockies to the Baltimore Orioles for Larry Bigbie.
by LoneStranger on May 11, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Well done.
I would just like to remind you that Antonio Perez who had just come off a good season in partial starting duty came back with Bradley to the A’s which I think made the trade look even better at the time considering many (BA im looking at you) questioned either’s ability to hit enough to start at a corner of position.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 11, 2009 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Ethier for Bradly still is a win for the A's
Without Bradley the A’s don’t go to the playoffs in ’06 (and remember, Bradley was the only hitter who showed up during the second series).
Pretty much the A’s traded Ethier for a trip to the playoffs, and I’d make that trade 1000 times over.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on May 12, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Guillen was still a win for the A's as well for their short term plan
In the sense Harang was really nothing at that point and the A’s needed someone for the playoff run. He performed well here and they sure didn’t lose in the ALDS because of him.
This was during a time when the A’s sent out prospects for one or two extra pieces to try getting them over the hump, rather than trading off budding stars for prospects.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
My problem with that trade (then and now)
is not Bradley as I was very happy to get him on our team, but the fact that I don’t think we needed to give up Ethier to get him. Bradley was either DFA’d or close to it – either way the Dodgers were being forced to trade him and there were not that many takers. I don’t think it should have taken one of our top prospects to get him – and I think the Dodgers throwing in Perez was their way of getting Beane to bite.
Well
1. There were significant questions about Eithier’s ability to hit for enough power to man a corner OF spot in the big leagues.
2. We also got Antonio Perez in the deal which was, at the time, seen as another one of Beane’s shrewd pick ups of strong secondary pieces. He was looked at as someone that was improving, had a strong first real shot at the bigs, had a strong hit tool and could play 2b 3b and possibly even a little SS.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 13, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Also
Either was a top prospect because are farm system sucked, not so much that he was really really awesome.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on May 13, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
A better way to do this is by position
C— give the A’s credit for developing Hernandez. Miller was an OK stopgap. Kendall was a waste of money, caused by another two wastes of money (Redman and Rhodes), which had to be unloaded. Suzuki with Powell backing up and Donaldson making his way up is a pretty good end result;
1B— give the A’s, Mcgwire and BALCO credit for developing Giambi. Give Beane and Schottman credit for not overpaying to keep him here. Hatteberg was a pretty good fix— maybe Beane panicked too quickly on Pena but, as noted earlier, it took him a while to grow into the player he is now. (And would have been unaffordable by now as well) Barton may be the real miss here— Karros and now Giambi have been unimpressive short-term fixes. Doolittle is coming. Overall a plus
2B— Give the A’s credit for getting Velarde for the first contending team. And Menechino as a fill-in. And dispatching Jose Ortiz who turned out to be nothing. And getting Ellis in the steal from Tampa and Kansas City. And now having Cardenas waiting in the wings. Ellis’ health has been the one negative but overall this position has been a plus;
SS— Give the A’s credit for developing Tejada. The Tejada-Chavez decision will be debated forever. Money was a factor as Tejada’s contract came up first. As was his age… and the steroid use, I’m sure. The real problem here has been the total miss on Crosby. And so far no real alternative. Scutaro’s deal away was probably a mistake though one wonders what his end of season numbers will look like. Cabrera so far is looking like one of the veteran quick fix “misses”— but we’ll see;
3B— give the A’s credit for drafting and developing Chavez. The contract has been an albatross. Only big question is: was the steroid question as front and center with him as it probably was with Tejada?? Where is our 3Bman of the future? maybe Cardenas, but then the hole shifts to 2B.
OF— It’s been musical chairs. They unloaded Grieve wisely. They paid Long and Dye unwisely. The Ethier for Bradley trade was a mistake— in large part because Travis Buck has not yet become the equivalent of Andre Ethier. Carter and Cunningham are very real prospects. Jury out as to whether Sweeney or CarGon would make the better CFer. Justice was a pretty good one-year fill-in. Credit for drafting Swisher— still too soon to judge that trade. One hot start in NY doth not a season make, and he was pretty poor in Chicago last year. Kotsay was good for one year, not so much beyond that. Kielty was a mistake. Jay Payton was an overall plus. Holliday?? We’ll see.
SP— huge credit for the Big Three. Just as big for letting two of them go the way they did— the Hudson trade didn’t work out. Huge credit for Lidle (RIP) Appier and Olivares were pluses. Loazia not so much given the money, though many argue he was cheaper than the going rate. Blanton, Hardin and Haren were terrific replacements— of the three deals, time will tell whether the A’s got enough. Hardin still seems like a huge injury risk. Cardenas may single-handedly make the Blanton trade a success. Haren’s trade is now caught up in what happens with Holliday. Cahill-Anderson-Mazzaro-Gio—Simmons, etc.. is still a pretty damn good foundation of young pitchers— plus Ynoa.
BP— Beane has almost always constructed an effective pen. He doesn’t overvalue teh closer position— his retreads seem to work out…and lately the team has more live arms than at earlier junctures, particularly Bailey and Devine if/when he returns.
Overall- I’d say it is mainly success but for the left side of the infield.
+1
Great analysis. I agree that we have to look at an overall plan that develops over a number of years at many different positions. Beane may make a trade that seems like a loss because he is backlogged with good pitching but needs some short term fixes at other positions, etc. We fans should be grateful with the knowledge that a team like the A’s has one of, if not the best GM in baseball. The team may make a few head-scratchers (I was particularly upset after Hudson was traded) but they always seem to have more good deals than bad and have managed to field a successful and exciting team most of the time.
by MaineAthletic on May 11, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
And not to ignore Byrnes
He turned out to be a valuable cog for a couple of years— but given the incredible streakiness I can’t object to the trade. And it did take him a while to flourish in Arizona after busts in Colorado and Baltimore— and he regressed last year.
For all of the hype (and money) Byrnes got in Arizona ...
his best years were in Oakland. Despite his MVP consideration, in 2007 he was basically an average corner outfielder …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Suzuki = What we all hoped Jason Kendall would have been.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on May 12, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
The two moves I don't like
I’m not going to knock Beane too much because hindsight is 20/20 but I didn’t like the Danny Haren trade from the begninnig because even though the A’s got several prospects I thought Haren was a legit ace who was still under contract for awhile and those are rare beasts.
The other is the firing of Ken Macha which to this day I don’t understand. How you fire a guy after he led the team to the ALCS is beyond me. I know some of the players didn’t like him but frankly if Bobby Crosby doesn’t like someone I see that as a plus for that person’s character. It pains me to see the Brewers with a winning record while Geren keeps spitting out his happy talk about how everything is O.K.
All in all Billy Beane is usually right and he’s still a huge asset for the A’s.
Haren was a cheap ace
but the talent Beane received for him was ridiculous. Smith and Eveland were both average major league starters for the league minimum and CarGon, Cunningham, Anderson and Carter are all top 100 prospects.
That is ridiculous, and if Beane had another guy like Haren and somebody offered a similar trade, he’d do it again without thinking twice.
I compare to the Santana trade
and feel good about the haren trade
re Brewers:
Managing is easy when you have one of the three best hitters in baseball hitting 3rd, and one of the 5-6 best power hitters hitting fourth, and oh by the way, yourace is not Dallas Braden, but yovani Gallardo.
Not that I don't agree with some of these
but you lose a lot of credibility when you misspell players names (hardin? scutero?)
i agree
proofread one time, you sound like a 13 year old
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Turns out Beane is no genius
This post may not balance out BBs success to go with the duds, but it does remind us that BB makes mistakes just like other GMs. I still think the dude is better than average.
He was right that this year’s Division title is up for grabs. But, it’s tough to put a winner on the field when your minor league system doesn’t produce any hitting at all for years. That’s why we’re stuck with an old broken down line-up. The way he constructed the starting rotation was disappointing and weak.
The pitching staff is well above average ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
The starting rotation has been bad
4.72 era
5.something fip
5.67 tRA (-9.5 raa)
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
That era is about average (park adjusted) for all AL pitchers, which makes it better than average for starters ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
AL starters era is 4.75, so 4.71 (it’s actually 4.71) is moderately below average, park adjusted. Bad fip. Very bad tRA. Fewest innings.
AL starters:
.271/.336/.432
A’s starters:
.300/.364/.438
.822 OPS pitching 16/29 games in Oakland. That is second worst in the AL without a park adjustment. Terrible.
92K/68BB.
The rotation has been very bad.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Beane failure
Its not on his trades but on his picking of manager and coaches. Look at Geren who would not be a major league manger anywhere but here. He has no prior experience and has no knowledge how to manage players. Take the coaches. The A’s have not been able to find a hitting coach that can work out.
If you're going to analyze the trades, analyze all of them
Cherry-picking the ones that back up the preconceived notion you’ve settled on doesn’t make you look very good. It’s definitely not a fair position you present.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
There is no sure thing but...
I feel the biggest problem has been with our 1st picks in the first round of the draft.
2003 Brad Sullivan
2004 Landon Powell
2005 Cliff Pennington
2006 no 1st round pick
2007 James Simmons
2008 Jemile Weeks
Being a Monday morning QB I think we could of done a LOT better!
There have only been about 22 other GMs...
who have done a better job building a team than Beane the last three years.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
cunningham had a nice first game back for the rivercats
5 AB, 2H (1 2B), 3 R, 1 RBI
hopefully he’ll be up in the majors soon. we need another good right handed bat
barton has hits in 9 of his last 10 games and 6 straight games (only one multihit game though)
progres!!
Barton looks demoralized
When I"ve seen him in Sac he has looked down. Chin on chest, shoulders slumped. I really thought we had something there and hope we still do.
Baja been here
i think he's got a 6 game hitting streak and has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games...i'm manufacturing positives here.
sadly only one multihit game, but progress is being made.
That would be great - I wish he'd platoon with Sweeney, not Buck,
though I imagine it will be the opposite.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
For some reason I read that at first as
“please end the tranny of rajai davis”, and I thought, “inbillywetrust, is there something you’d like to share with the rest of the class?”
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Barton is hitting n.190 at Sac.
A good September 2 years ago does not justify this guy getting mlb at bats. Let him figure it out at Sac. Problem with Barton , Buck and Sweeney is that they don’t hit homers. On my team guys that don’t don’t hit HRs have got to bring .300 average to the table.
i'm a cubs fan
wondering who the PTBNL for roquet will be.
Someone who stands a good chance of doing nothing here...
…if he stays, but a good chance of doing something elsewhere if he goes?
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
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