The Hard To Assess Angels Of Anaheim

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 1:30 PM PDT

They won 100 games last year but lost Teixeira, K-Rod, Garland, and Anderson. Yet they arguably replaced K-Rod with a closer of comparable, if not equal, ability in Fuentes, and replaced Garrett Anderson with a version, Abreu, who actually walks. Their starting pitching looks quite vulnerable right now, yet they figure to get one, two, or three excellent starters back during the season's first half. How will it all shake down?

Here's my take on what to expect from the Angels in 2009:

Offense

This is not a one-dimensional hitting team, in that along with Vlad the Angels have another very good hitter in Bobby Abreu, a decent hitter in Torii Hunter, a "hitting machine" in Howie Kendrick, some power in Mike Napoli, and some potential in Kendry Morales,

That being said, I am assessing the Angels' offense at "slightly below average." This is a unit that will not have a 30 HR guy, could easily not even have a 25 HR guy, and will sport a poor team OBP. I just don't see the Angels hitting a lot of HRs (though half the lineup will likely hit between 15-20 each) and I don't see them walking much. With a low team OPS, on an approximate "percentile scale" from 1-100 I give the Angels offense a 45 (B-).

Defense

This, I believe, could be the Angels' achilles heel. They will need to start at least one of Rivera and Abreu, and either the other or Vlad - and if they start Vlad in the OF he is likely either to break down or be little better than Rivera or Abreu in the field. Torii Hunter is no longer a great CFer; he is a decent one who will have to cover 1.5 times as much ground as he actually can.

The infield defense isn't a whole lot better, with Figgins at 3B and Kendrick at 2B being more liability than asset. If I were the Angels, I'd try to kill two defensive birds with one stone by putting Figgins back in the OF, thus improving the OF defense a lot while allowing a better defensive 3Bman to replace Rivera in the lineup. But as long as the Angels have the current alignments, I give the Angels defense a 35 (C). I think it is going to cost them.

Starting Pitching

As we saw last night, if you have good enough starting pitching you often can overcome the rest of your weaknesses on the back of one guy. Right now, the Angels' starting pitching is a mess with a rotation of Saunders, Weaver, Moseley, Adenhart, and Loux. However, Lackey, Escobar, and Santana are all due back at some point and each addition is worth a ton. With none of those guys, I give the current Angels rotation a 35 (C), but with one of them added I give them a 50 (B), with two of them added a 65 (B+/A-), and with all three back I give them an 80 (A-).

My guess is that one of the three will have a setback, while two will return sometime around May 15th, give or take a couple weeks. That means a 35 for 1/4 of the season, and about a 65 for 3/4 of the season. That puts the Angels at a 57.5 overall (B+).

Bullpen

This is a legitimate strength, with a solid closer in Fuentes, arguably the league's best set-up man in Shields, depth with Arredondo and Speier. Fuentes isn't infallible and Arredondo still has much to prove, but this crew will get the job done more often than not. Including the back end of the bullpen, which is less critical and also less impressive, I give them a 65 (B+/A-).

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Comments

So does 57.5 mean you think they're going to win 93 games?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Apr 7, 2009 1:38 PM PDT reply actions

No, it's just one piece of a bigger puzzle

That’s just the SP, on average, across 6 months.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Article needs a currency conversion

of points to wins.

"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."

by VORP is too nerdy on Apr 7, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions

Sorry, but I hate that carp

“Howie Kendrick is a 1.5-win player!” Really? I could swear he was a second baseman.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Okay, so you hate that carp, but how do you feel about the bass?

I’ll be here all night.

"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."

by VORP is too nerdy on Apr 7, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

That's what I feel worst about.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

great now we'll be herring this all day

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Apr 7, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't hate, fornicate

Enjoy the game

by DCinWC on Apr 7, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I've heard of fisking, but this is ridiculous!

by oblique on Apr 7, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions

I've gotta say, watching Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreau in the outfield

made me pretty smiley.

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Apr 7, 2009 2:08 PM PDT reply actions

I eagerly anticipate

Bobby Abreau shying away from the outfield wall for the first time this season. Mean old wall!! Leave Bobby Abreau alone!

by cityplANner on Apr 7, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Smiley as much as Holliday, Sweeney, Cust?

by demarius12 on Apr 7, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

That's nowhere near as bad

Holliday is above average in LF and Sweeney is at least young and could improve in CF.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Apr 7, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't understand your rankings

35 out of what? 57.5 out of what? 80 out of what?

Are these percentages? win totals? some goofy scale that doesn’t start at zero like the SAT?

I expect to be confused by numbers from the statheads, but not from you.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."

by iglew on Apr 7, 2009 2:23 PM PDT reply actions

I believe the scale was from 1 to 100.

"You're just jealous. You wish you had a rally animal..." -CardinalWraith

by Boonee on Apr 7, 2009 2:29 PM PDT reply actions

Yes. This was implied when I said

“on a scale from 1-100 I give the Angels…”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I was thinking roughly in terms of "percentile"

but I’ll edit it to include a “letter grade” as well.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

A 45 is a B-?

What kind a 100-point scale is that?!?

by GreenNGoldSooner on Apr 7, 2009 3:16 PM PDT reply actions

school's gotten a lot easier in the decades since I last attended

Everything is sunshine when you are Ray Fosse, bitches.

by stormtown on Apr 7, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Percentile,

where 50%ile is a B.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions

i think the grades go

50%: B
60% A
65% A+
70%: OMG
80%: ZOMG
90% XOMFG11

it is the internet age, afterall.

In other news, quality writing like this seems to have landed me a job

what have i got myself into this time... http://damiansthirtyyearchallenge.blogspot.com/

by alea iacta est on Apr 7, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, I figure "league average" is a B

A cut above league average a B+, better than 2/3 of the teams a B+/A-, better than 4/5 of the teams an A-, better than 90% of the teams an A, better than 95% of the teams a ZOMG!!!!111.

Congratulations on landing a job. Remember that the answer to “Can I get fries with that?” is always “Yes,” because the customer is always right.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions

it's not far off that

to cover my rent in a month, i’m going to have to write around 90 000 words.

which is a book!

what have i got myself into this time... http://damiansthirtyyearchallenge.blogspot.com/

by alea iacta est on Apr 7, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Any words?

Pretty good deal.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions

i really think we can give them a run this year,

their bullpen is lights out though again, like you said

I don't like you Detroit.

by mattman on Apr 7, 2009 3:27 PM PDT reply actions

It all still boils down to Cahill and Anderson, IMHO.

This is a good breakdown, Nico, and I largely agree with it.

What this all shows to me, is that the A’s seem to have a slightly better offense, better overall team defense but a slightly worse bullpen. Unless either team swings a big trade before June 31st to get a power hitting 1st basement or 3rd baseman (Angels) or a closer-for-hire (A’s) this status-quo seems like it will last most, if not all, of the season.

Due to the injuries sustained to both starting staffs and the questions surrounding the A’s young pitchers, the division is likely to come down to which staff can get healthy the quickest and/or get the most out of unexpected sources. Cahill and Anderson are key to the A’s success in this regard. If they can compete over a full year in even the way Braden did last night AND the A’s get Duke back for 15+ starts starting in May, then the A’s might be able to put the better package on the field for the majority of the season..but if not…

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Apr 7, 2009 4:28 PM PDT reply actions

Totally agree with everything you say here

I see it kind of this way: The A’s young pitchers (or Duke’s health) have to develop at least at the rate that the Angels’ pitchers get healthy. So by the time Lackey gets back, one of the young pitchers has to be pitching like a good major league pitcher, not a “will be good someday” pitcher. By the time Santana gets back, another of of the young pitchers has to be pitching like a good major league pitcher, not a “will be good someday” pitcher. And so on.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions

congrats on your 1000th post nico!!!!

woooooooohoooooooo

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Apr 7, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions

Hey, whaddya know, it is!

Do I get some sort of “Get A Life time achievement” Award?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Apr 7, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions