The A's Pitching Staff: What Should Have Been
by Nico on Apr 25, 2009 7:00 PM PDT
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PrintThis is not analysis of what the A's should have done in December or January. Randy Johnson made his choice to stay in the National League, Oakland made its choice not to pursue veteran-but-not-great options like Randy Wolf, veteran-but-not-cheap options like Pedro Martinez, or veteran-but-not-proven-healthy options like Brad Penny. So the A's went into Spring Training with a group of guys from which to choose a 5-man rotation and 7-man bullpen, watched how those guys performed in Spring Training, knew their various ages and track records, and watched two key pieces (Justin Duchscherer, Gio Gonzalez) get sidelined along the way.
Given these realities, what should the A's have done? My two cents, based solely on what we all knew at the time (the first week of April)...
* Edgar Gonzalez should have been sent to AAA, just as he was. E. Gonzalez has a 5.97 career ERA over 5 major league seasons and posted a 10.93 ERA in Spring Training. For any and all ability he has, E. Gonzalez has proven one thing: if you put him on a mound, he will probably give up 2 runs every 3 innings unless he gives up 3. (Surprise, surprise: E. Gonzalez is currently posting a 5.29 ERA for the Rivercats.)
* Jerome Williams should have been sent to AAA, just as he was, because he did not look like a good pitcher - great flier to take, didn't work out, oh well.
* Sean Gallagher should have been sent to AAA. Gallagher did not look good in Spring Training, and possibly also irked the A's brass with his attitude, work ethic, or something else non-pitching related but still relevant. However, as one of the few available pitchers who was both sufficiently talented, and sufficiently experienced, to augment the A's rotation, Gallagher should have been sent a message, and sent tutelage, by starting every 5th day for Sacramento. In this scenario, Gallagher would now have 4 starts under his belt and would be ready to throw 100 pitches for anyone at any time.
* Trevor Cahill should have been sent to AAA, because stat-wise and process-wise it was clear he did not have the ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes with any consistency, and these are not the right conditions for jumping a 21-year old pitcher from AA to the major leagues. For the same reasons, Mazzaro should have been sent to AAA, just as he was.
* Given the need when Duke and Gio went down, Brett Anderson should have been given a spot in the Oakland rotation, just as he was, based on his command, polish, and maturity.
* Josh Outman should have been given the #5 spot by default, but skipped at every opportunity while the A's young arms are fresh and just need to stay in rhythm. Given the canceled game in Anaheim and the rainout in New York, had the A's adopted this philosophy from the outset, Josh Outman would have made exactly one start so far.
* Dana Eveland should have made the Oakland rotation, just as he did, by default, with the hope of making him the #5 starter as soon as possible, not the #4.
And so the rotation should have been Braden, Eveland, Anderson, __, and Outman, with Gio or Gallagher replacing Outman as soon as possible. Dang, we came up one pitcher short. You can't pitch __ every 5th day. What to do, what to do?
Choices: Suck up your concerns and put Gallagher in the rotation from the beginning, let E. Gonzalez get lit up instead of Cahill and start 5-10, or...pretty much do what the A's did. In other words, with their ace injured, their readiest young starter injured, and their other readiest starter looking bad, the A's had no "good choices."
Now the good news...Even sans Duke (probably not ready until June 1st at the earliest) and Blevins (currently struggling in AAA), I like this pitching staff a lot better than the current one:
Braden
Anderson
Cahill
G. Gonzalez
Gallagher
Ziegler
Springer
Bailey
Outman (short relief)
Wuertz
Casilla
Eveland (long relief)
If I were the A's, that's what I'd be working towards in the next two weeks.
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Yeah, I don't think they had an obvious, better choice with the starters
and I think this is a good summary of the situation the A’s have been in. Of course, that assumes that Gallagher really deserves being in someone’s doghouse for whatever he’s done, because if he’d been working hard and behaving responsibly, it probably would have been wise for the A’s to keep him in the rotation ahead of Cahill, despite Gallagher’s lousy performance in AZ, because of Cahill’s developmental needs and Gallagher’s extensive track record at AAA and fairly good track record in the majors.
Maybe the A’s thought that Gallagher just assumed he had a spot in the rotation and was lazy/irresponsible/unfocused, and felt that it would be terrible for his development if they rewarded that attitude with a spot in the rotation.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
agree with you on Gallagher and Outman
I kept hoping that Beane would manage an off season trade to bring a good starter, perhaps someone close to his walk year (sort of a Holliday-type trade). He may well have tried, but couldn’t get a trade worth making. I do think that it would be over-optimistic to go into the season with talented but fragile Duchscherer as the lone veteran starter — no one should be surprised that he had to go on the DL. …and I hope but don’t assume that once he gets back he’ll be healthy for the whole season.
I really don’t know what to think about Eveland. I was expecting him to be a decent 4/5 starter — which perhaps he can be, but then who is ahead of him besides Braden?
Gio/Gallagher's issues are control
If they can get that in check and pitch well in AAA for 3-5 starts i expect them to be up by late may or so in the rotation. Then Duke follows soon after in june. Please no more eveland and giese. Props to braden.he still relie on the defense and doesnt getting many strikeouts, but has been good thus far.
I have been impressed with Braden
He looks decent, the rest of our starters can go, I don’t really know what the A’s can do to solidify it this year to be honest. Perhaps take a chance on Mulder who has been god awful the last few years, overpay for a nearly done Pedro, the A’s are in a bad spot
Do you have any actual facts or evidence to support your recommendations or are
we supposed to accept your “expert” opinion on faith?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
We're supposed to accept that it's one fan's opinion.
Anyone else is entitled to a different one. Nico is just speaking for Nico. He happens to enjoy the position of front-page editor for AN, so he uses that forum to express his views. Any one of us can do the same in a fan-post, which might get recommended or promoted if it’s good enough.
I don’t see why you have to have such an attitude about it. And he does say “my two cents”, after all, so it’s not like he’s pretending to have a monpoly on insight.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Except that a mere "fan opinion" isn't what he claimed:
“Come back at 7:00pm for an analysis of the decisions the A’s faced with the pitching staff at the end of Spring Training, and a look at the choices they made weighed against the options they had.”
This is not analysis. It is unsubstantiated opinion. If Nico wants to rant he should do it in a fanpost like anyone else. On top of it all, this wasn’t even necessary. No one was expecting another post beyond the game wrap.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 25, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Is this a joke?
Anyone who writes anything on an Oakland A’s fan site, unless it’s an interview or a link to a news story, is expressing an opinion. Some people are involved in running the site, and get chosen to write “front page” opinion pieces. Such pieces are not confined to game previews and wrapups. They happen all of the time, and have since AN adopted its current format.
As I understand it, Blez has put Nico in charge of running the site. Nico has written a post giving his opinion about how the A’s should have handled their pitching staff. It gives us some food for thought, and we can choose to weigh in or not – assuming we’re checking the site on a Saturday evening.
I love the part about Nico’s views being “unsubstantiated,” despite it being adverttised in some earlier post as an “analysis.” Did he not include enough research or statistics? Did he not give any reasons? Did you think his reasoning was unsound? I haven’t the slightest idea, because you don’t seem interested in talking about Nico’s views, only attacking him for expressing unsubstantiated opinions and posting it in the “wrong” place.
Everyone is free to criticize Nico’s stewardship of the site. I did so myself, not long ago, during the whole PT kerfluffle, in the appropriate forum. But I am more than a little tired of thread after thread getting hijacked into some sort of meta-discussion about the failings of Athletics Nation and its current leadership.
It's not a joke.
I am not interested in talking about Nico’s views because his views are no more nor no less valid than those of any other fan. He has a right to them. But they are not worth responding to because there is no logic behind them. Only emotion. Everyone has a right to their emotions. But a random guy’s emotions aren’t worth a front page story.
Here are two examples:
“Trevor Cahill should have been sent to AAA, because stat-wise and process-wise it was clear he did not have the ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes with any consistency, and these are not the right conditions for jumping a 21-year old pitcher from AA to the major leagues.”
“Brett Anderson should have been given a spot in the Oakland rotation, just as he was, based on his command, polish, and maturity.”
Not being a scout, psychiatrist or an expert in any of the statements made here, it is incumbent on Nico to explain what convinced him that a) Cahill did not have the ability to repeat his delivery, b) Anderson has command, polish and maturity, and c) why any of these factors are central to the decision to promote or not promote. There’s certainly nothing here that would convince the reader that any of this is either true or relevant.
Here’s another example:
“Dana Eveland should have made the Oakland rotation, just as he did, by default, with the hope of making him the #5 starter as soon as possible, not the #4.”
I think I can safely answer no to both of your questions — “Did he not include enough research or statistics? Did he not give any reasons?”
I’m sorry you’re tired of “thread after thread getting hijacked into some sort of meta-discussion about the failings of Athletics Nation and its current leadership”. I don’t believe I’ve been the hijacker of any other thread in this manner. Even here I’m not saying Nico is the wrong person for the job. I’m saying that his use of his position to promote his own rants while claiming them as some sort of “analysis” strikes me as wrong.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 25, 2009 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Rants
The characterization of Nico’s opinion as a “rant” isn’t terribly helpful.
And if the uninformed rantings of the guy who runs the site are unworthy of response, why did you respond below with a post about the rotation? Shoot, why are you here at all? Nico writes all of the time, getting all emotional and staying uninformed of important statistical measures like “Luck free ERA.”
I cannot imagine what you must think of my occasional contributions, although I guess they are less objectionable to you becuase they’re only in fanposts or comments.
Wow, you must hate ... well, pretty much all sports journalism
I mean, isn’t that what every sports writer does? Just give his “unsubstantiated” opinions?
It sounds like you think no one should be allowed to use a simple declarative sentence without a mathematical proof to back it up. Jeez, take a ’lude, dude.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
A random poster can rant. A front page editor has a bigger responsibility in posting his
own writings.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 25, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Responsibility to whom?
Who exactly do you feel Nico, Blez, BBG, etc., owe something to? To you? To all readers?
These people voluntarily give us free content on the Internet. What have we done that gives us the right to tell them what they are and aren’t allowed to give us?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Apr 25, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
We make revenue from advertising possible.
Without our readership this blog is just a bunch of 1s and 0s on a server.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 4:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Kind of like the A's offense?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Most sports journalism is ignorant and obnoxious.
That is why places on teh internets like fangraphs, uss mariner, and AN before all the stats people left thrive; they are places for reasoned objective discussion.
Speaking of all the stats people leaving, its been a month can we please have PT back?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
One reason all the stats people left
is they didn’t appreciate an atmosphere in which front-pagers were told what they weren’t allowed to write.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
No Eveland in the rotation?
I’m just going on mlb experience and what I’ve seen/read, that Cahill should go down and work on mechanics, while Eveland is what he is.
Never mind the stress here's the Dank ~RIP~Justin Huff
*I missed that you had Eveland in for long relief,
I think you make some good points, but Cahill should go down to Sac and Eveland should be the #5 starter. I don’t think it would mentally affect Cahill’s development to be sent down for a while to Sac, since he skipped it. He’s young and if they handle it correctly, he will understand he has to work on consistently throwing strikes and repeating his delivery and then when he’s ready he will go back up. It’s hard to focus on one aspect of your pitching when you need to get outs/wins against major league teams.
Never mind the stress here's the Dank ~RIP~Justin Huff
The other thing about sending Cahill down for a month or two
is the issue of “super two” status and another year of contract control. So it might be a good idea.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
good point,
I wasn’t even thinking about that.
Never mind the stress here's the Dank ~RIP~Justin Huff
I guess sending Cahill down now, if he should have been in AAA all along,
is kind of the “sunk cost” approach of admitting you probably should have done it a month ago but better now than never. Kind of like when/if the A’s finally release Crosby.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Release Crosby? Never! sign him to an extension. However much it takes. LOL
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
I really don't think Cahill's time in the majors has been wasted
Remember Crash Davis’s whole “that shit won’t work in the majors” rap to Nuke Laloosh in Bull Durham? Well, Cahill is finding out, first hand, precisely what shit won’t work in the majors. It certainly has worked for him in A and limited time in AA, and it might even work in AAA. But if he goes down now to AAA, he’ll be there to get himself ready to pitch in the majors, not to figure out how to get AAA hitters out and hope that’s enough against the Rays and slegnA.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Cahill having 5 days rest certainly did not help his control IMO
He’s iffy at the best of times and an extra day off is and was asking for trouble.
The only think I have to say about tomorrow is Eveland better be on a very, very short leash. This 14.2 innings 25 hits and 9 BB’s is nothing short of being disgraceful.
I hope like hell for his sake and ours who have to watch, that they have worked with him and sorted it out because if he repeats this tomorrow, he should be sent packing. 34 base runners in 14.2 is an embarrassment to him and to any fan of this club as we all are.
I take your point about the extra rest
although I’d want more information about it: 1) I didn’t see much of his performance on Friday, so I’m not sure how exactly he looked or what went so wrong; 2) he probably pitched on extra rest in the minors, too, so there’s both data and in-person evaluation available about those outings, as well.
In any case, I think you and I agree on this. If the extra day did him in on Friday, then he’s learned that he doesn’t have nearly as big a margin for error in the majors, and can’t get away with mechanical sloppiness or mediocre command against the world’s best hitters. If he gets sent back down to AAA, and ends up having an extra day before a start (because of a rainout or just due to scheduling) maybe he’ll be more focused about dealing with that extra day of rest/preparation because he knows that just letting his talent carry him through won’t work in the majors, even if it does in AAA.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I was at the game on Friday night
Cahill got very few ground balls. His pitches appeared up pretty much the whole time. As you know the Rays hit him pretty hard.
Yeah, that's what I assumed -- his pitches must have been up
The key question of course will be why — overstriding? having the wrong tempo in his motion? wrong/inconsistent arm slot? And then, secondarily, what caused that? The extra day of rest is a good guess, but it’s not like Cahill was pitching like Greg Maddux on his regular turn. Maybe it was partly the cold weather. Maybe his work in the previous week had been lousy. Maybe he was deliberately trying something out and it backfired. I don’t know, of course, but I hope (and assume) that Curt Young does.
Not to get into Zito zone here, but the fact is that pitching is the one part of baseball that is totally self-initiating and not reactive. There’s lots that the pitcher can’t control — his fielders, the ability of the hitter, where the ball is hit, etc. But the pitcher controls everything up to the point that the ball leaves his hand (and also controls his own behavior after that, as in covering 1st on a grounder to the right side). I understand why a pitcher would relax more pitching against a AA or AAA lineup than against the defending AL champions, but in principle that pitcher is trying to do his best in both cases, and all he can do is throw his best sinker or knuckle-curve, whoever the hitter is. There’s no reason at all for his motion to be different in the majors than in the minors.
And that’s where the comparison to his minor-league performances comes in. When he’s had an extra day in the minors, did he have the same mechanical problems as Friday? Or does he hold it together in AA, but fall apart in the majors? The answer to those questions would help a lot in figuring out what Cahill needs to focus on.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
all good questions
I think also that if he doesn’t happen to have his best stuff (that happens to pitchers at all levels) he probably can get away with things more when he’s not pitching against the better hitters at the major league level. the Tampa Bay hitters hit him up and down the lineup. He mostly wiggled out of trouble during the first two innings, only giving up one run in each. But in the third he got the lineup for the second time.
I agree with that completely
and that’s part of the reason that I don’t mind him getting lit up a bit in the majors. If something’s not broke, a player’s not going to fix it. If a basestealer is swiping bags in the minors on pure speed, and not paying any attention to analyzing pitchers’ motions, the only thing that will get him to improve his game is getting picked off a bunch, or thrown out by catchers who know what they’re doing, in the majors.
Failure can be just as good a teacher as success.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Then I'm gonna be a star!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What I want to know about Cahill
Is where the hell has the curveball gone?
He was advertised as having a “plus-plus hard curveball that he’ll throw at any point in the count” (I’m quoting Goldstein here). As you know, “plus-plus” = “damn good”; it was supposed to be a swing-and-miss pitch. Cahill got strikeouts at a healthy rate all through the minors, but they’ve dried up completely at this level. It seems to me mixing in a few curves would help him a LOT in disrupting timing and getting a few more K’s, but I’ve seen very very few. Just the sinker-change combination doesn’t look sufficient, and I don’t understand why a pitch that’s supposed to be a real weapon has been effectively removed from the arsenal.
Anyone know more about this?
I don't know about how others feel about this....
but I kind of want to see Anderson and Cahill both sent down. I would rather have them for an extra year in their prime than this month as a rookie when you don’t really know what you are going to get. If they are as good as advertised, I want them that extra year when they are in their prime.
If for now you just send down Cahill and work towards:
Braden Anderson Gio Gallagher Eveland
Then eventually put Anderson in AAA when Duke comes back, I think it would be the smarter move in the long term…
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
BTW I wanted them in AAA to start the year for this reason
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
I can see trading Cahill (AAA) for Eveland
We’ll see if Eveland moves forward or backwards – he doesn’t have too much farther backwards to go in that he is allowing a TON of batters to reach base. But since Cahill’s not ready anyway, so neither will likely help you much now, I could see going with Eveland instead of Cahill just for later (both for Cahill’s development and for his contract control).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Gallagher started for the Rivercats tonight:
3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. (52 pitches, 32 strikes).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Apr 25, 2009 8:45 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
thx for the line info
sounds like a lot of pitches/batter, but he hasn’t pitched much since March and didn’t give up a hit
me too
I’ll try not to get too excited about 1 good start, but you gotta like that line from a guy that has only pitched 3.1 innings in about 3 weeks
and I agree with Nico
They should have started him in AAA from the beginning.
That would have sent the same message as almost benching him and he would be stretched still.
oh i'm not excited...i just liked the one walk...
the problem with a lot of the A’s young starters is walks. not walks to strike outs but the total # of walks they issue. look at the last few mazzaro lines. he won’t be able to get away with that in the majors.
gallagher and gio both have massive strike out talent. gio averaged 9.0K/9 last year in his few starts in the majors. Gallagher is going to post a ton of strike outs too. but they both walk too many guys. eveland walks too many guys but he has no ability strike out a ton of guys. so i’m more excited by gio and sean, but time will tell.
great news!
We all were due for a day when some good things happened.
by EastVillageA on Apr 25, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Imagine had they done this 3 weeks ago
He would be ready to pitch in the rotation and made it quite a bit better.
I posted this without reading your article Nico
LOL
I just wanted to read the comments. I have now gone back and read it.
I agree
What ever happened to Andy Sisco?
Just wondering the status of this guy. Currently on “reserved list” at Sacramento. Didn’t the A’s pony up a $550,000 contract for the lefty. Is he alive?
Anderson/Cahill shouldn't have been in the starting rotation.
Anderson and Cahill both have shown that they need more seasoning (flashes of brilliance and disaster) in AAA. Gallagher looked bad in ST. Gallagher also had the flu and gave up a bunch of runs pitching weak. Outman and Gallagher both project to be better than Cahill or Anderson.
As for Eveland I would just like to remind people that Eveland contributed 2.7 WAR to the A’s last year. This was 48th best in the MLB of qualifying pitchers. So considering that he pitched like a good #2 starter last year, better than Blanton, Lilly, Maddux, and JOHN LACKEY, I think that we can give him a leash that is a little longer than two bad starts.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 25, 2009 9:37 PM PDT reply actions
If not Anderson and Cahill, who?
I guess you’re recommending Gallagher for one of the spots despite his illness, but what about the other?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 25, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Gio
You know things are bad when Bobby Crosby doesn't have the lowest batting average of any starter, yet he's hitting .138. Yes, you're 2009 Oakland Athletics.
by UOSportsDude on Apr 25, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Now yes
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 25, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
He was hurt coming out of Spring Training, that's why he's still on a pitch count
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Sorry, didn't see your comment right below!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
My rotation opening day
Braden
Eveland
Gallagher
Outman
Mazzaro untill Gio/Duke were healthy
I would have done this because I think that Mazzaro would have staid down long enough that he would have kept the year of control. Also he had experience pitching in AAA. Hindsight is 20-20 but he does have a better MLE FIP than either Cahill or Anderson and I was less worried about screwing him up.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 25, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure where you're getting the MLE FIP, but here's what BB-Pro has on MLE ERALF*
Dana Eveland — 4.06
Dallas Braden — 4.44
Travis Banwart — 4.78
Anthony Capra — 4.93
Vince Mazzaro — 5.28
Gio Gonzalez — 5.39
Josh Outman — 5.72
Trevor Cahill — 5.88
Brett Anderson — 5.90
Carlos Hernandez — 6.11
James Simmons — 6.30
- Luck-free ERA
Not sure what this all means, other than MLEs can be strange when using small samples. It also means that in addition to Cahill and Anderson not pitching like they’re ready for prime time so far, they could also use the innings limitation that a stint in the minors would give them. They could easily be traded in for Mazzaro and Gio. Of course that still leaves Outman in the rotation till Gallagher is ready.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 25, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I got it from minorleaguesplits.com
I know the problems of sample sizes well but Mazzaro’s numbers can be found here. For me the key is keeping control of assets that will be of value down the road because I really don’t think that this is a playoff team, especially with the dumb decisions management is making. I really wanted Simmons to come into spring training and be almost ready so that if something happened to Duke and another starter, we would could turn to him. Alas Mazzaro seemed to have done that for a while in ST before they sent him down.
As for the rest of this, Eveland has a better FIP than everybody’s star of the week Dallas Braden. The failure to grasp the concept of a small sample size and statistics is making a lot of these rants by Nico here and elsewhere sound, quite frankly, like the wild ridiculous “analysis” that you get from the NY media about their baseball teams.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 4:15 AM PDT up reply actions
minorleaguesplits.com usually has a less severe translation than BB-Pro from AAA to MLB
Here are those same guys using their FIPs and Fangraphs’ FIP for major leaguers:
Dana Eveland — 3.81
Travis Banwart — 4.09
Dallas Braden — 4.23
Gio Gonzalez — 4.37
Carlos Hernandez — 4.39
Anthony Capra — 4.41
Vince Mazzaro — 4.67
Brett Anderson — 5.87
James Simmons — 6.03
Trevor Cahill — 6.34
Josh Outman — 6.58
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 26, 2009 5:44 AM PDT up reply actions
the minorleaguesplits.com FIPs are MLE FIPs
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 26, 2009 5:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah i use minorleaguesplits.com because it is free and I am poor
But I would suggest that throwing Capra or Carlos Hernandez in to the rotation from A ball might be a bad idea and the same goes to Banwart who is in AA and has less that 2k/bb.
I just don’t get the notion that Anderson is “ready” when Cahill isn’t. Anderson isn’t King anyone and his HR rate is double what it will need to be for him to succeed in the bigs.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the BB-Pro translations are free too. They're pretty interesting.
Link. I logged out of my subscription and could still get into this page.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 27, 2009 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Thank you!
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 28, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
jay marshal
he seems to be getting better, but shouldn’t he be striking more guys out…especially lefties?
So you agree with my post from 2 days ago
Nico, all you had to say was, yes the A’s should put Eveland and Outman in the bullpen now. Good idea. Those two boys don’t appear to have the stuff to be starters. I’d like to see them cut loose for a couple innings from the pen.
I don't think Eveland has the ability to "cut loose" like, say, Outman or Bailey.
What you see with him is what you get. He’s not going to start throwing 94 from the bullpen.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
plus eveland doesn't seem to have a strike out pitch...
a reliever that pitches to contact seems dangerous.
somebody once commented on the site...
i can’t remember who made the comment about whom…but the gist of the comment was that there are two kinds of relievers. the guys that bleed a little every time or the guys that are lights out most of the time and get blown up badly every once in a while. they might produce the same era, but the latter is far more valuable.
i suppose the same is true of starters too. eveland strikes me as being the first kind of pitcher (leaks a little at all times), while gio and gallagher have the latter skills (they can be dominant a lot).
This is a good way of describing it.
However, I think that as a starter someone that only has manageable bleeding is someone who will eat a lot of innings, be very valuable to the team, and be under appreciated by fans who think that you should just be sent to the bullpen or AAA.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
unless...
they throw a lot of pitches per batter and inning. then they won’t last very far in games.
Right - due to a combination of ineffectiveness
and inefficiency even when effective (e.g., today), Eveland is averaging just 5 IP per start. He’s not actually eating innings; in fact he’s taxing the bullpen quite a bit.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
once Duke and Gio went down...
the staff should have been, in no particular order, Braden, Gallagher, Eveland, Cahill, and Anderson. That’s what it is going to end up being next year, anyway. So, let’s get the project under way. Outman never belonged… he’ll never stick.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
On Eveland..
That new delivery doesnt have seemed to help his control. Maybe he should go back to the one he was good with early in 2008. He was pitching ok and was hitting 93-94 on the gun. Now hes like 88-91.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
And still missing his target by a lot, frequently
That probably concerns me more than anything. He’s as wild in the strike zone as he is outside of it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just appoint me GM for a day
And Eveland won’t be on our roster any longer.
Good to know that last year's 38th best starter in the bigs doesn't belong on your roster.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 26, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh and Gallagher
struck out the side in the 2nd inning. He was owning these AAA guys. When he left the game the rest of the Sacramento staff promptly gave up 8 ERs. Once he up to 90 pitches He will be up. I love this kid, I believe in his stuff and I think hes gonna be very good for us.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
Nice article, Nico.
SI.com picked it up and that is really cool IMO.
Urban: Hold on. That cougar in the corner is TOTALLY checking me out. Should I send her a mimosa? Do I slip the wedding ring off and hope she doesn't see the tan line, or is she old enough to not care?
by ohtobe21likehuston on Apr 26, 2009 12:32 AM PDT reply actions
Cool - I didn't even know that
Thanks, SI.com.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
My conspiracy theory.
I’ve had a strong suspicion that Gallagher came to camp out of shape. That would explain the loss of velocity on the fastball and why he’s in the dog house.
I don’t have any proof, it’s just speculation on my part.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
My Two Cents
I like Nico’s analysis but i think it may be a bit premature.
Anderson and Cahill need to stay. I was also at the game Friday and yes he got lit up. but he also executed some great pitches at times. Cahill has already shown me more than Gio Gonzalez.
Young pitchers are going to be inconsistent- if they are Above Average to Really Good they will be adequate one start and crap the next while they figure it out. Then you have the great ones like Tim Hudson that figure it out after a few starts and then take off. Zito and Mulder took a bit longer.
The biggest failure is the offense that was supposed to take pressure off the young starters but has done little.
We need to stick with these guys at least until the all star break- I believe it will pay big dividends. The old adage that the Giants can’t figure out: “If you’re gonna suck, suck with young players”
I'm fairly certain,
between Gaudin and Gallagher, that Beane simply hates gingers. Maybe he subscribes to the Cartman school of thought, that they have no souls.
I'm so sick of the Hannahan/A-Rod comparisons.--Rocktopus
He did keep this guy around for over 3 years, though
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Are you kidding?
Two or three years ago we had a whole team full of gingers.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
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