The A's Need To Stop Joshing Around So Much
by Nico on Apr 20, 2009 6:37 PM PDT
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PrintNOTE: Monday's A's-Yankees game has been rained out and will be rescheduled for when the A's return to New York in July.
I'd like to encourage the A's to rethink their current practice of not skipping the #5 starter (Outman) when off-days or rainouts allow them to. The argument in favor of keeping Outman's turn in the rotation is that by sometimes pitching Cahill and Anderson on the 6th day, instead of the 5th day, the A's will help limit the number of innings these rookies throw by having their turn come up only, say, 28 times instead of 32. I think I have a more effective way to manage this:
You will limit a starting pitcher's innings more if you occasionally skip a start entirely than if you keep giving one extra day of rest until the days add up to an entire missed turn in the rotation. The A's should be pitching Braden, Eveland, Anderson, and Cahill on the 5th day all the time right now, meaning that you skip Outman whenever an off-day allows you to. This keeps all pitchers on turn and in rhythm, and puts your best rotation out there for the early part of the season.
Later on (June, July) you can start occasionally skipping Cahill entirely, or Anderson entirely - giving the pitcher 10 days in between starts to keep them fresh and their season's innings down. Why is this better? It's better because the pitcher slotted in to replace Cahill or Anderson will be Justin Duchscherer, or Gio Gonzalez, or a mechanically sound Sean Gallagher, or Vin Mazzaro. It's also better because right now is not when Cahill and Anderson need an extra day; right now they need to pitch.
It doesn't matter when or how Cahill and Anderson get limited to 160-170 innings, just that they are not asked to throw too many innings in the end. With off days today, Thursday, and next Monday there is no reason to have your #5 starter in the mix for the next couple weeks - there are better ways anyway to manage long-term concerns about Cahill's and Anderson's innings and they involve putting better pitchers on the mound now, and later.
{Chez Nico Reminder: There's still room for about 6-7 more people if you want to attend May 2nd's Chez Nico. Read this post and follow instructions if you want to add your name to the list!}
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it's an interesting suggestion
Slusser thinks the A’s may skip Outman’s start this week entirely:
Dana Eveland now will pitch tomorrow night and Brett Anderson Wednesday. The A’s have not announced their rotation beyond that, but with an unplanned day off today and travel days Thursday and Monday, there’s a very good chance that Josh Outman’s next turn will be skipped, for starters.
There you go.
Mostly, I think the A’s moves are motivated by a dedicated conspiracy to stop me from ever seeing Brett Anderson pitch. They’ve done it again, beautifully.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wise decision
Cahill has to be kept on normal rest. Don’t want to see the sinker not sinking and being that he walks many, an extra day off this early in his career doesn’t help the control IMO.
Outman pitching in Yankee Stadium was a Loss waiting to happen.
I hear what you're saying
I completely understand the temptation to skip HitWalkman’s turn.
This is a competitive season, but at the same time, it’s still an evaluative year, too. (One could argue that all years are evaluative years on Oakland’s budget).
The team needs to find out if Josh Outman can be a viable starting pitcher in the American League. Many of us think that he isn’t, but I can understand the front office wanting to give him more than just 2 bad starts to pitch his way out of that spot.
A lot of ANers want the A’s to win so bad right now. Nico, I think you’re absolutely one of them – partially because of how much time and passion you have invested in this team, and this season already in particular.
For those of you who are hanging on to nearly every pitch of this season, it’s undoubtedly maddening to watch each of these experiments:
a.) Is Rajai Davis a viable fourth outfielder/platoon option on a major league team?
b.) Is Ryan Sweeney capable of hitting lefty pitching? To a slightly lesser extent, is Travis Buck?
c.) Is Josh Outman a major league starting pitcher?
I’m sure there are others, but those are three big ones that stand out to me right now. My point is, a team on a smallish budget like the A’s – to be run efficiently – probably always has to be conducting a few of these types of experiments every year. Why? They can’t afford not to maximize the value of their own assets. The day Outman converts to RP again, it’s probably permanent. That instantly makes him a less valuable asset leaguewide. When Ryan Sweeney starts getting platooned regularly, he’s likely to be a platoon player for good, which lowers his value. (It happened to Jacque Jones at too young of an age, and he never developed the ability to hit LHPs).
Those experiments don’t bother me. I just accept them as part of the reality of being an A’s fan. I actually enjoy watching to see how they pan out. But, to be fair, it’s probably because I’m a little further removed from the team and watching a little bit less than many of you. If I watched every awkward Ryan Sweeney AB vs. LHP, or Walkman’s struggles, I’d probably be irritated, too.
I think a lot of A’s fans want to squeeze every ounce out of the current incarnation of the A’s. I don’t think Geren’s managing that way. Keeping Sweeney batting first against LHPs is an example. It isn’t the best statistical lineup to win tonight, but it’s sending a long-term message to Sweeney that, “We believe you can hit lefties, we believe in you as a major league every day player, we want you to get comfortable in this slot, etc.”
He’s managing these guys with the expectation that he’s going to be managing them for the next half-dozen years, which is a reasonable expectation. He might sacrifice a run here or there with the knowledge that it might be better for a player’s long-term development to have some consistency and demonstrate confidence in him. Keeping Outman in the rotation and sticking with Sweeney at leadoff are two possible examples of this.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Apr 20, 2009 7:14 PM PDT reply actions
OK, what's the message to Buck when he sits for five days in a row?
Platoons exist for a reason. That is that a lot of lefties have a pretty big platoon split. Jacque Jones may have hit lefties better if he’d been allowed to practice more at it, but he’d likely never have been good enough to be a starter against them.
Sweeney isn’t a good enough hitter that I care all that much whether he can improve against lefties to the point where he’s only 10% worse against them rather than 20%. Even 10% worse is not very good. Heck he’s not even that great against righties, nor is he a great defensive CF.
I don’t really have a problem with giving Rajai a shot since he’s out of options, but I’d end that experiment around Memorial Day one way or the other. I’d move Outman to the pen as soon as one of Gallagher, Gio or Mazzaro is ready. All have better minor league track records.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 20, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I hear you loud and clear, NSJ, and would probably be more sanguine
about starting Outman if I had believed in him as a starter to begin with. I have no problem with watching Cahill, and eventually Gio and Gallagher, through thick and thin, because they have the tools to succeed as starters and just need the opportunity to show what they can or cannot do.
Outman, IMO, doesn’t have those tools (a combination of insufficient control and fastball movement) and the sooner he’s in the pen permanently the better – for him and for the team.
I feel that Rajai Davis isn’t important enough to avoid exposing to waivers when the A’s desperately need good bats against LHP and Denorfia could provide it – I’d sooner be “evaluating” Denorfia than Davis.
Playing Sweeney full time I can get behind. He could learn to hit LHP and I’m fine with evaluating this at the big league level. But then I don’t see why Buck should sit against LHP since he also needs to be evaluated / learn against LHP at the big league level and has actually shown more ability in this regard.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree with your notion of experimenting and letting guys learn
and I think that’s exactly what’s motivating some of the decisions that are pissing off many ANers. But each example you cite has its own logic and demands.
1) Rajai. This decision has the least at stake. Davis is almost certain never to be a good, starting CF — if the fantasy version of your career is Shane Victorino with no power, then you’ve got a limited upside. He also has the least flexibility. He’s already a bench player with no options — there’s no backup plan with him. So if he’s not cutting it — and he’s clearly not so far this year — there’s not a whole lot of reason to keep him around. Even if he figures it all out and plays up to his potential, you’ve still got a light-hitting 4th outfielder with mediocre baserunning instincts.
2) Sweeney. There’s a fair amount at stake here, because everyone seems convinced that he’s going to start hitting 20 HR a year sooner or later. If he were to fulfill his potential, he’d be a really good player, at a position (CF) where the A’s need a good player. And he could fail to live up to his full potential and still be pretty useful (good, flexible 4th OF/PH/PR). Slotting him in as a platoon player would essentially involve admitting that he’s not going to be “that” player, so I understand the A’s’ reluctance to write him off like that. Still, they could be giving him a bunch of AB’s against lefties from the bottom of the order, too.
3) Outman. There’s a certain amount at stake here, since LHs who throw low-to-mid 90s are pretty valuable. On the other hand, the A’s have so many talented young starters that there are all kinds of ways to imagine a dominant A’s rotation in 2010 or 2011 that involve Josh Outman completely failing to figure it out. The A’s aren’t relying on him the way they’re relying on Cahill and Anderson. Furthermore, they do have a plan B with Outman: the bullpen. And we’ve all noticed that the bullpen currently lacks a lefty. So the A’s have little reason to give him 10 starts if 6 of his first 7 are crappy.
Long story short: Beane’s formula for spending the first 2 months figuring out what kind of team you have should be an average. Some guys take more time, others less, and circumstances have an impact on those decisions. I’d give Sweeney the most leeway, Davis the least, and put Outman somewhere in the middle (though closer to Davis than Sweeney).
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The thing I don't get is the complete lack of Buck in the lineup.
To me he’s potentially twice the hitter Sweeney is, yet he’s been sat for what 5 days straight? That’s insane.
I can understand the experimenting with the other players to a degree, but that argument doesn’t hold up when you consider the plights of Buck and Powell (will Suzuki ever get a day off from behind the plate?).
With the rainout, it looks like the next starters the A's see will likely be
Pettitte, Sabathia, Kazmir. So it might be six LHP in a row.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The Buck not getting consistent at bats thing
bothers me a lot more than Outman, or Davis, or Sweeney, tbh.
The only reason I can see for it is that they expect to be able to make a quick decision on Davis, and they don’t expect it to be a positive one; once he’s out of the way, so to speak, Buck will be playing a lot more.
Could be that Geren just doesn’t like Travis’ silly hair, of course.
It's never too soon to jump to conclusions
by alea iacta est on Apr 20, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm still hanging on to the "shin splints" theory
of skipping a turf series of all LHPs for the heck of it. Trouble is, Buck didn’t start against Saunders or Bedard either, so it’s looking very much like a “strict platoon” when one really doesn’t make any sense.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's kind of what I've been thinking
We’ve already had a few weird managerial decisions this year explained after the fact by injury problems. Buck hasn’t exactly been Lou Gehrig so far in his career, either…
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I've also been quietly wondering if Buck is injured somehow...
…it seems one of the more logical reasons that he’s been the invisible man in the line-up. But then again, we all know what happens when one assumes something.
I was going to buy a copy of The Power of Positive Thinking, and then I thought: "What the hell good would that do?"
I'm not sure I agree.
I have shin splints, and I play soccer. Yes, they suck, a LOT, but it IS possible to play, even on hard ground. A good deal of it has to do with proper footwear as well as keeping swelling down (which is as easy as taking motrin BEFORE running).
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
I got shin splints so bad once that I needed crutches for three days to get around at work....
I too play soccer with shin splints, but generally only two or three times a week, not every day…..
There's no crying in baseball!
There's also much, much more running involved in soccer.
There was a time where I was playing soccer on Mondays and Thursdays, and softball on Tuesdays.
Did it suck? Yeah, kinda, but it wasn’t anything that ice, motrin, stretching, and the right shoes for the surface I was running on helped me get through.
Granted I’m not a professional level player getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to play. I’m paying money for the priviledge :D
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
I think also the kind of running involved may have an effect
basketball players, for example, run an awful lot. Yet the fact that some of that is “running backwards” has been pointed to by some as actually helping them not to strain their hamstrings much. In baseball there is quite a bit of jolting, bolting, stopping and starting, which may make for more problems.
I remember once running to first without being sufficiently warmed up. Both my quads went on me, and actually turned black and blue for a while…not fun.
Running with cleats on is also a culprit
Not sure why, but I would speculate that it’s got something to do with a handful of contact points as opposed to your entire foot hitting the ground like with sneakers or a turf shoe.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
How about Buck *and* Sweeney?
I don’t think it should be either Buck or Sweeney. Sweeney has been fine this year – better against lefties than righties. All of his extra base hits are against lefties and nearly has 2 HRs. He’s not one of the major problems on offense
I’d like to see both Sweeney and Buck in the lineup every night to see how that works. Let Cust DH and put Giambi at first. Platoon Chavez and Garciaparra until Chavez can prove he can hit again. If Garciaparra can’t pick up his hitting, stick with Chavez for his defense.
I also agree Rajai should go and give Denorfria a chance as the 4th OF and work him in when you need to rest Sweeney, Buck, Giambi or Cust – especially against lefties.
Agreed
This whole Buck thing is really starting to grate on me. Seems like Geren would prefer Sweeney, Davis, Chavez and Powell in the lineup against lefties over Buck despite the fact that he has actually hit better against lefties in his major league career.
I see the argument for keeping Chavez in there for his defense though.
Buck isn’t really worth keeping for his defense.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 21, 2009 6:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Davis' defense doesn't outweigh his awful hitting and baserunning anymore.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
What you say makes some sense, but I've no idea whether your way is any better
for Cahill and Anderson than the A’s way. If they don’t like Outman they can just replace him with Gallagher, Mazzaro or Gio whenever one of these guys is ready.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Why didn't they just
schedule a DH on Wednesday? Both teams have an off day on Thursday. Probably didn’t want to upset the Yanks before their first series of the year with Boston. Not to mention that the “shared off day” both teams have in July takes place the day after Oakland has a home game and NY has a home game. Who saw that coming? I hate the Yankees. Beyond ridiculous.
Might as well Jump! - Van Halen
Not really on topic
But I didn’t look for a rainout thread either. Sorry.
Might as well Jump! - Van Halen
I think the rain is supposed to stick around Tuesday and Wednesday as well....
Might have been worried about whether or not they could get two games in on one day.
There's no crying in baseball!
I hope Wednesday is rained out since I have to miss it anyway
This is how I am.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
it's all about the coin, folks
A day-night doubleheader with no notice means some tickets go unsold or concessions are not purchased. partic. since the weather forecast is bad for Wed, too. They will not— cannot, actually, allow a one-ticket double header since their rainout policy gives precedence to the folks who purchased tickets for that day’s original game, leaving the rain out people out in the cold in more ways than one.
But a day night doubleheader or off day single game in July (Ziegler says the players will object to the latter) allows plenty of time for them to fill the ballpark up.
Whatever hurts the Yankees most gets my vote
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Amen to this, and that is why I complain that they aren't taking care of it right away
The Yankee lineup will now most likely have another big bat in the lineup when we get around to playing this game. And while I know that you can’t really predict anything for certain, it just ticks me off.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
I bet Tex is not hitting .200 then also
This sucks in so many ways.
"AN, Reducing Work Productivity since 2003", connie mack 11/06/08
I doubt we'll see a doubleheader in New Yankee Stadium for a long time, if ever
"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott
by scatterbrian on Apr 20, 2009 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Outman looks
like he would excel as a lefty power pitcher out of the pen…not looking like a quality starter yet, but you never know. Should we bring up the good old Mulder or Pedro talks again?
I could see Outman succeeding in the pen
because he might be able to get his fastball up to 93MPH-94MPH, and he’s already pretty good against lefties.
The pitcher he is most like, IMO, is Alan Embree. Embree was a “pretty decent” and very durable reliever with a good-but-straight fastball and iffy control, and he was a guy whom you would NEVER put into a rotation. Why any different with Outman?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And Embree was a lot better at the same age than Outman
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 21, 2009 6:05 AM PDT up reply actions
False
Embree spent his year 24 season relieving in the minor leagues. Outman’s components so far K 8.64 BB6.48 K/BB1.33 Embree K 8.39 Walks 5.84 K/BB 1.44. Yes the FIP is a big difference but hat has to do with Outman’s ridiculous HR, but to suggest that a guy who put up a FIP 3.33 last year at 23 is significantly worse than a guy who it took till his 27 year season to do that is false.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 21, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Sweeney on MLB Network in 2 minutes
I guess he stopped by to chat
Holliday on his Batting Average
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/20/SPFM175LSR.DTL
Huston was the player's union rep and now Ziggy?
Is it the closer’s “other job”?
Who was this sultan of sock, this hero of hosiery, this stalwart of shinwear? Ah, Wimberly — Corey Wimberly. - Uni Watch
Does that mean that Baily is a shop steward?
As the closer in training?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 21, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Andrew Bailey for starter?
whose with me?
Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous
I would be if there was someone to replace him in the pen...which there isn't.
Better to wait and bring up Mazzaro next month. Having a 5th starter that can pitch more then 4 innings would have a bigger positive effect on the team then pulling Bailey out of the pen with no one to replace him but Blevins.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Apr 20, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions
He was a terrible starter at AA, and was a great reliever there. Why mess with success?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 21, 2009 6:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this thread is missing something...I know
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE
Bad spellers of the world untie.
Not with modern medicine and the Federal Governments
new bail out package… I see us blogging on AN forever!!!! HAHAHA!!!!!
"Where's the beef?"
0's
Through their first 12 games the A’s have had six streaks of going 7 or more consecutive innings without scoring a run (12, 8, 14, 10, 7 and 15-and-counting innings by my calculations).
Also, least season they scored "0 or 1 run" in 25% of their games
This year, it’s “0 runs” in 25% of their games.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Outman
I just wanted to echo what NSJ mentioned above-Outman is not the typical journeyman 5th starter, he’s a prospect in his own right (even if he’s not as shiny and exciting as Cahill or Anderson). If we were tossing Saarloos out there every fifth day, I’d say let him ride the pine, but Outman still has a chance to be a useful major league pitcher.
Not as a starter, IMO, per my analysis above (comparison to Embree)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Embree is a bad comparison
Embree sucked until he was 27 and Outman has outperformed him in the minors. Embree had to repeat AA three times (including a lost year to injury). In Embree’s age 24 season, which is where Outman is now, in AA, Embree had a K/BB ratio of 1.27. Outman has NEVER had a season with such poor peripherals. With the exception of one fluke year for Embree, Outman has always out Ked him as a starter until Embree moved to the bullpen full time in his age 26 season.
Outman is just flat better than Embree. Outman is walking more people now than at any point in his career. If Outman’s control improves from the atrocious level it is to the merely bad level it was throughout his career he will be fine as a starter. How about giving him more than two starts before making him walk the plank?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 21, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Outman started last year
and gave up runs in every start.
He had two starts where he went 6 innings each and gave up 3 and while you might say that is not bad, I remember him getting blistered in those games as many of the outs were right at fielders.
We are trying to win and he is not helping. Let him learn in the minors. His fastball says “Hit Me” and he walks too many.
I think the Embree comp is totally valid,
based on the tools each brings to the table: Hard, straight fastball, good breaking pitch, ok offspeed stuff in general, spotty control.
I don’t care who took how long to do x, because every person is different, as are circumstances. I just don’t see Outman as having a “starter’s repertoire” because he needs to throw harder than average to succeed and he can only do that as a reliever; neither his control nor his movement is good enough to get by as a starter.
This is not based on two starts, as I was saying all this before Spring Training even started.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
+1
Totally agree. I’ve said before that we need Outman more in our no lefty pen and he wouldn’t be much of a loss from the rotation. Hopefully gallagher can get it together or are the A’s stickin with him in the pen until he proves his mechanical issues are a thing of the past?
" I may not know how to tango, but I sure as hell can man dance!" -Nate Robles
by DaSwinginA's on Apr 21, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
This position is unreasonable.
You’re putting your scouting reports above the track record. Outman has much better minor league stats, and oddly enough, I’m betting on those stats rather than your scouting report. There are a TON of factors that affect hittability. Release point, throwing motion etc. The problem is, your evaluation of Outman is prone to human error (you might not notice a subtlety) whereas stats, given a long enough sample size, don’t miss things.
Now, I agree, Outman might bust as a starter (even his stats regarding control indicate that). But I object to the following statement:
I don’t care who took how long to do x, because every person is different, as are circumstances. I just don’t see Outman as having a "starter’s repertoire" because he needs to throw harder than average to succeed and he can only do that as a reliever; neither his control nor his movement is good enough to get by as a starter.
This implies that your observation is more valid than their track record, since the stats happened in different times and places. How does this argument not apply infinitely more to the number of times you’ve seen Embree and Outman?
Stats are purely "past outcome" based, while observation
can also be “process” based. In Outman’s case, pitchers who have middling control and pitchers whose fastballs lack movement are unlikely to succeed at the major league level because they have issues that are hard to fix and that just don’t work against big league hitters – even if they worked well against lesser competition.
I find that the best predictions come from combining the stats with “process based” observations, rather than relying on one as being necessarily “better” or the “be all and end all.” Since with this style, I have been able to “scout” and “predict” at a pretty strong level, I’m comfortable in saying that it’s a good evaluation system and that I know when and how to use my own observations in order to make a predictive assessment.
And like everyone else, I’m going to be dead wrong some of the time – but I’m going to maintain that Outman will not be successful as a major league starter. He just doesn’t have the necessary tools.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
who knows if you'll ever come back to this...two weeks later lol
but I believe the last sentence in my post is key:
[You] imply that your observation is more valid than their track record, since the stats happened in different times and places. How does this argument not apply infinitely more to the number of times you’ve seen Embree and Outman?
You claim that your “process” based approach has some validity. My point is that your observation can be error prone. The past is absolutely a great predictor of the future. It’s the same process that underlies FDA approval of the medicine your doctor prescribes, etc.
I find that the best predictions come from combining the stats with "process based" observations, rather than relying on one as being necessarily "better" or the "be all and end all." Since with this style, I have been able to "scout" and "predict" at a pretty strong level, I’m comfortable in saying that it’s a good evaluation system and that I know when and how to use my own observations in order to make a predictive assessment.
A serious question: How could we determine the validity of this statement? What tools (dare I say, metrics) could we use?
Our Hitting Sucks
Our OPS as of today is .612. Last year at the same time it was .697. Hey, Billy, all those free agents really helped!
I thought I read on the site
that they might actually skip Outman’s start. Link
" I may not know how to tango, but I sure as hell can man dance!" -Nate Robles
Fastball
Last year, I remember talk regarding Outman throwing in the mid 90’s, one of the reasons they wanted him to go back to starting. The two games I’ve watched him pitch this year, it seems his fastball has been more like 88-90. With his command not being great, an 88 MPH fastball is going to get clobbered when being tossed down the middle of the plate. Have the gun readings I’ve seen been off, or has he lost velocity?
He's not throwing all that hard
Maybe more like 90-91, but not with enough movement to get by.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thanks
That’s what I thought. I was impressed last year with him, but right now, he’s throwing batting practice (and yet still striking out a fair number of guys). As we saw with Van Poppel and others, you can throw 98 miles an hour, but if the fastball is straight, it’s going to get hammered.
by GreenOctober69 on Apr 21, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
looks like Outman's next start will be May 2
the same day as Chez Nico, according to Slusser:
As expected, Josh Outman’s next turn will be skipped. He’ll next start May 2 at Seattle.
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