What I Fear: Beane's Self-Imposed Trap
The "Anything Can Happen" optimist in me wants to believe that anything is possible. The rotation, with two barely-able-to-drink rookies and a collection of other guys, will be unexpectedly good. The guys in the bullpen who did well in stretches last year will keep it up, and prove to be more than flashes in the pan. The lineup, filled with old and injured guys, will be a lot more productive. The rest of the division will stink. The A's will be in contention, and Billy Beane will pull off a deadline deal to keep us in the hunt through September.
Why must we think this way? Why must two young pitching studs be rushed to the big leagues, using up a year of service time on a team that really cannot afford such a luxury if they turn out to be good? Why is the focus on this year, when realistic expectations dictate that this is a rebuilding team, at least a year away from serious contention?
I'll tell you why. It's because Billy Beane has chosen to pursue two goals that conflict with each other. He wants a contending, watchable team now - and he wants to rebuild for the shiny future up the road. Beane is trying to pull the trick of doing both at the same time. My fear is that he will end up achieving neither of his aims, harming the long-term goal along the way.
There isn't anything inherently contradictory about trying to win now and win later. Beane has done this before (see 1999). But I worry that he's pushing his luck this time, and playing with a weak hand.
Let me stipulate that there are some things I don't care about. I'm not concerned about the free agent signings, because most are cost-free even if they don't work out. Cabrera should be an upgrade. Giambi is likely to be the erratic slugger he's been in recent years, and Daric Barton needs more time in Sacramento.
But the Matt Holliday trade has changed everything. If Holliday isn't on the team, I strongly suspect that Anderson and Cahill start the season in AAA or below. That's where they should be, and that's what worries me.
Rushing Anderson and Cahill to the big leagues is the sort of thing that bad teams do. It may be that Anderson is a pitching prodigy, the rare kid who has the poise and the stuff to succeed (on relative terms) in the major leagues at a very young age. If it works, Beane's decision might make sense, even if it means one or bothof them is eligible for free agency or arbitration a year early.
But I look at this team and don't see a contender, even if the division is weak and the Angels struggle. I see mediocre starters, a bullpen likely to regress (to get/stay injured), and a lineup that's still too injury-prone and punchless. The A's are still counting on Eric Chavez to play third base most of the time. I hope it works, but it's silly to count on that.
Meanwhile, those rookie pitchers - the vaunted future of the franchise - are almost certain to struggle. It's not likely that both of these pitchers will be significant assets to the team, and the fast-tracking of them could harm their long-term development.
What's puzzling, to me, is that the pitching issues were entirely forseeable. If you trade your best starters, and in Blanton your most reliable innings-eater, it's no surprise that a team will have trouble putting together a rotation. It's as if Beane decided to rebuild for the long term and then got impatient with it, because he was as bored watching the team as we fans were.
The Holliday trade may not turn out to be a mistake, even if he leaves after - or during - the season. The guys traded for him may not turn out to be anything special. But I do worry that Holliday's arrival has been driving other decisions to the franchise's long-term detriment.
I hope I'm wrong.
4 recs |
54 comments
Comments
Worst-case scenario: The guys who "put us over the top" turn into young talent
Holliday, Giambi and/or Cabrera are packaged for AA-AAA prospects, who will be ready in 1-2 years, and we compete then, in 2010-11 and beyond, just like we planned.
What Beane did well regardless of how 2009 plays out is package spare parts for Holliday, a bonafide star who will either be a top-tier trade chip in July or an Type-A free agent in the fall. Similarly, in buying low on Cabrera & Giambi, he acquired two veterans who may well be sought after come the deadline in exchange for ‘B’ prospects.
Worst comes to worst, we’re back where we figured we’d be, only with more young talent.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Mar 31, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That seems a little too optimistic.
I don’t see Holliday, Giambi, and Cabrera turning into a bunch of prospects. If the A’s are lucky, they’ll recoup the talent traded in the Holliday deal from all three players. A deal that was not “for spare parts” by any means.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Apr 1, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And apparently Cabrera signed
On the stipulation that we don’t offer arbitration after the season so he doesn’t run into the same mess. No picks there.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Apr 1, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spare parts?
OK, Smith might fit that classification, but I’d never slap that label on Street or Gonzalez. Street’s value took a bit of a hit after last season, but he’s still a 25 year old reliever with a very strong track record. Gonzalez has more upside than perhaps any position player in the A’s system right now.
What I will grant you is that the team dealt from positions of strength, where they had sufficient depth to absorb some losses.
by CapgrasDelusion on Apr 1, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're wrong to bear88
The only thing us fans can do is cross our fingers, cheer like crazy, and hope to God that the whole thing doesn’t blow up in our faces…….Personally, I’m excited because I can’t remember an A’s team that was built like this one going into a season.
Might as well strap yourself in and enjoy the ride….

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Mar 31, 2009 10:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
THE COLORS!
The colors, man!
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lemurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 1, 2009 6:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes me wish I thought I had antlers.
"No offense, Nico, but starcitygames.com used to be the AN of Magic sites "
by tresselfan on Apr 1, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oooh, pretty!
>grabs at air in front of moniter<
I like important stuff just as much as the next guy, but please, for a little while, deliver us from meaning, baseball. That's your greatest glory, and we thank you for it very, very much. -- Craig Calcaterra
by JLeverenz on Apr 1, 2009 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's the purple blotter talking JV!
:}
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Apr 1, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy
I love the Dead. Nice little VW in there too :)
"It's never 'just a game' if you're winning" - George Carlin
by bluelightrain84 on Apr 1, 2009 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Holliday trade did influence some of the decisions...
but, Harden, Haren and Blanton were already traded. The other “options” for back-of-the-rotation starters haven’t exactly shone brightly so far, so I think it’s just more than Holliday being here. It’s pretty much that Anderson and Cahill are better now than what else we have.
Also, I think the prospect of 9,500 fans/game average attendance in 2009 may have driven more than one of these decisions… Holliday, Giambi, 2/3 of the MAC in the rotation. Need to put butts in the seats in these hard economic times.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 31, 2009 10:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope your wrong too
But do you really think beane would rush the organizations best prospects if he didn’t feel the were ready? I like to think he wouldn’t
by Spidz34 on Mar 31, 2009 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to break it to you but Billy's job is to make the organization money
Obviously he’s going to try and win whenever he can. But, we all know the A’s are, financially speaking, one of the worst teams in baseball. The team needs revenue now! I know I’ll be going to as many games as possible and I hope you do too.
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO A’S FANS: GO TO GAMES AND GIVE THE A’S YOUR MONEY (within reason of course)
by T-Money on Mar 31, 2009 10:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
or "Go to A's games.....
-and give me your change". :)
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Mar 31, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm pretty sure billy's job is to win ballgames
or else he wouldn’t have let all our star players/fan favorites leave or be traded
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Apr 1, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope!
Revenue minus COST equal profit. Star players nearing free-agency = COST. and star players nearing free agency = assets (or trade chips).
by LowcountryJoe on Apr 1, 2009 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wolff
I’m thinking Wolff and Beane discussed the “Rebuilding Strategy”, and Wolff won the “discussion”. How are you going to get a Stadium approved if you continue to lose money and 85+ games/year?
by Colorado Fan on Apr 1, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, um... this.
This is everything I’ve been saying for the last forever. I made a post about how the team Beane built can’t do two things at once. On the field he’s got veteran (or aging, if you will) sluggers, Nomar, O-Cab, Giambi, along with the Chavez, Ellis that we already had. But on the mound he’s got a bunch of 25 and under guys. Eveland’s got stuff and Braden is basically the man. But Gallagher, Gio, Cahill and Anderson are all wild cards. And looking at relative history, they don’t stand a good chance to do too well.
by NateHST on Mar 31, 2009 10:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think he's trying to do one thing and that's win this year with the youngsters.
I don’t see any evidence of rebuilding.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 31, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he's trying to win with youngsters
Why do we have Jason Giambi at 1B instead of Daric Barton? Why is Matt Holliday our LF instead of Cunningham? Rajai/Denorfia instead of Carlos Gonzalez? Why did he trade Greg Smith, go after Randy Johnson and Rafael Furcal? And so forth…
by NateHST on Mar 31, 2009 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I phrased it badly. He's trying to win this year. He thinks he can win this year with the top
pitching prospects on the staff. I think Barton and Cunningham are in the plans but better stopgaps were available and so he went and got them. I think Carlos fell out of the plans, and Smith was never really in them.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 31, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand what you're trying to say
But I don’t think what we saw this off season was Beane’s entire plan—that is, going to prospects in the end. After Holliday, the A’s misread the market and thought they could get Randy Johnson. Then the economy happened and the A’s decided to make minor improvements instead of locking up any long term pitchers.
I definitely don’t think that Beane went into the off season with the idea that Anderson and Cahill were going to take two rotation spots. I needn’t bring up their experience again. It’s just silly to rely on these two. And I definitely don’t think a potential five tool, defensively stud CF just fall out of the plans. That is also silly. As for Smith, he was a smart pitcher and a potential innings eater, on the cheap. Guys like that don’t just fall out of the plans unless somebody pushes them out, which Cahill and Anderson didn’t do.
by NateHST on Apr 1, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos did it to himself
He swung his way out of a major league job. And he is not going to break camp with the Rockies either. Also, “not much of a clubhouse favorite”….
"No offense, Nico, but starcitygames.com used to be the AN of Magic sites "
by tresselfan on Apr 1, 2009 6:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hated that guy.
He always tried to steal my Funions.
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lemurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 1, 2009 7:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
May be time to change my screen name...
Bob Geren and Ken Macha both enjoy jai lai.
by CarGon's Jock on Apr 1, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you think he was going veteran and then got blindsided by the economy?
I guess that’s possible. It would certainly explain the Furcal lowballing. Although they were going to have competition for Randy no matter what. Also he only became available because the Diamondbacks were affected by the economy.
You may be right about Carlos, as we did hear rumors that Anderson was in that deal until they settled on him. You have to give value to get value. I don’t think they valued Smith all that much. He seemed a throw-in — like Gaudin in the other deal.
Also I don’t think Cahill and Anderson would have made the rotation if Gio and Duke were healthy. I do think they would have come up at some point this year, since they are the two most talented guys on the staff.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 1, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
which long term pitchers should Beane have locked up?
Johnson? I know he’s Randy Johnson and all, but dude turned 45 in September. And even though Johnson implied that he wanted to stay in the NL, Beane tried anyway. That it didn’t work out is not a failure on Beane’s part.
As for CarGo, when a player—who came in with a questionable makeup—shows little willingness to work on pitch recognition and develop as a hitter, then he can fall out of your plans. He is in his third organization in three years.
I think that Beane went into the off season with the idea that Anderson and Cahill had the ability to take two rotation spots. Why wouldn’t Beane think that one or two of the best pitching prospects in the game could crack the A’s wide-open rotation?
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Apr 1, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson and Cahill
I think your primary concern is rushing out two young pitchers to the majors before they are ready and sacrificing one arbitration year for nothing. The way I see it is if Anderson and Cahill struggled like you predicted, they will be send down. No way Beane/Geren will allow either one to get hammered on every start just so they can gain experience. If they do struggle and get sent down, I doubt either pitcher will earn enough major leage time in 2009 to qualify as a full season.
by batterbatter on Mar 31, 2009 11:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think he believes Cahill and Anderson will be successful this year.
And Bailey for that matter.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Mar 31, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok let me ask...
would you re-do any of the trades beane had done since the haren trade onward? did they have reasons for making such deals. would you preferred they held onto a couple pitchers?
kept blanton?
instead of trading smith, maybe trading mazzaro/simmons and a hitting prospect like brown/doolittle in that holliday deal?
by Asfan4ever723 on Mar 31, 2009 11:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One thing I wouldn't have done
was throw Gaudin into that Harden package. If that meant it was a deal breaker, then so be it. But I find it hard to believe the Cubs wouldn’t have accepted a deal involving just Harden for Gallagher and Donaldson.
by CapgrasDelusion on Apr 1, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My two cents
If Gio and/or Duke hadn’t gone down I would agree this is a huge mistake. However, I think that while it is questionable it is reasonable with no better options.
Before I panic about starting the MAC clocks, I wonder if we haven’t overlooked something. Now Im not sure how the service-time clock works exactly, but as I understand it we lose control over these guys earlier if they play a certain amount of games this year, but it doesnt matter when those games are during the season, right?
So, lets think. Right now the A’s could contend and Anderson/Cahill are better than the other options. So why not start with them and begin a period of evaluation of about 8 weeks. The following are the generalized possible outcomes:
1) A’s are not in contention – but Cahill and/or Anderson are pitching well
2) A’s are not in contention – and CA are shaky to bad.
3) A’s are in contention – but CA are shaky to bad.
4) A’s are in contention – and CA are pitching well.
Now, before considering these 4 possibilities, it should be noted that the two most likely scenarios are 2) and 4) because the performance of these two rookies will be so intertwined with the A’s team performance.
Optimal strategies to balance present/future
Case 1) – This is a problematic situation to a certain extent. We would be wasted Anderson and/or Cahill if not in contention. However, it would also mean they had developed into stars so I couldn’t be too upset with that, especially considering that the way pitchers break down their peak years could already be ticking away anyway…We’d have to leave them up and sacrifice the year of service, painfully.
Case 2) – We send them down once Gio and Duke or whoever else that is more expendable is back/able to fill in decently. If we are really tanking then we might as well let someone with a questionable future pitch anyway, like Outman or Simmons. We can think of this as just giving them their “September callup” at the beginning of the season instead of the end with no harm to service time.
Case 3) – Unlikely, but same as Case 2. If A’s are contending and CA aren’t pitching great than replacing them should be easy anyway.
Case 4) – If we are contending and they are pitching well, I can live with that as them pitching well would be vital to our contention. A WS ring would help me forget about the lost service time.
Given that these are the only 4 outcomes essentially, I don’t see it as a huge mistake. It opens up the door for a huge mistake – i.e. management doesn’t follow my guidelines!
Am I right or is my premise completely wrong here?
I miss Chad God
by ChadGod on Apr 1, 2009 12:12 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Offsetting the loss of service time is the increased trade value as established major leaguers
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 1, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what do you mean here?
I miss Chad God
by ChadGod on Apr 1, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean if Anderson holds his own -- at least like Kershaw 2008 -- then his trade value is now
higher than it was if he’s in AA or AAA. This is likely true even if he loses his 7th year of control.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 1, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post.
Although I would imagine they’d still get September call ups in Case 2, burning more service time.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Apr 1, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
F**k it! Lets just be hopelessly optimistic... like I am with the Warriors
by T-Money on Apr 1, 2009 12:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Like this guy?

"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Apr 1, 2009 4:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember the day that photo was taken.
The Warriors had just upset the Mavs, so I busted out a can of Krylon Glittery Gold™ and, dude, that got the party started!
Good times.
by Ray of Lite on Apr 1, 2009 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I once encountered a guy with the same color of paint on his face who
swore up and down that he wasn’t under the influence. He adamantly denied that he would ever resort to huffing paint to get high. The rag in his pocket was for his day job. It was quite hilarious actually, but alas, it ended badly.
If that really was you Ray….sorry bout that. But at least now I know the reason for the preferred color scheme.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Apr 1, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Causation, correlation
The Holliday trade did not cause the team to rush Anderson and Cahill.
If Holliday isn’t on the team, I strongly suspect that Anderson and Cahill start the season in AAA or below.
Yes, I suspect so as well. But in the same sense that if people weren’t walking around with umbrellas, I suspect the sidewalks would be dry. The umbrellas don’t cause the puddles; they are two separate effects of the same cause.
For whatever reason, the front office has decided to try to win this year. Because of that decision, Holliday was traded for. Because of that decision, combined with injuries and/or suckiness of the other candidates, our best prospects are going into the rotation sooner than is ideal for them.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."
by iglew on Apr 1, 2009 6:32 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
well said -- I also hope you're (we're) wrong
but I share your concerns.
by OaklandSi on Apr 1, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm optimistic about the pitching despite the setbacks
Most of the pitching problems are experience related and their talent level is actually pretty high and deep. If the psyche of these young pitchers remains strong we should see a lot a improvement as the year progresses. Support these guys through the rough spots and it will go a long way to help them maintain their situations. Geren and Young seem to be pretty good at that, and Suzuki is brilliant. This will be a test of whether the A’s system can actually grow talent under fire. I’d like to think that that is one of the new sabermetrics being developed by the nerds at the front office. Everything seems to suggest that that was the idea behind this construction. As long as the defense holds up the A’s will be watchable.
by Ran on Apr 1, 2009 9:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well sure, we watched the second half of 2008.
But it wasn’t a pretty sight.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Apr 2, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a different take
This year’s team will be a reflection of the young position players. The older, injury prone guys will get hurt, just like they always do. They’ll be productive when healthy, but their only chance to stay healthy will depend on the younger guys being in the lineup and playing well, so the team doesn’t depend on the older guys as everyday players, which will inevitably cause them to be injured and unavailable.
So we need a good year from Buck, Suzuki, Powell, Sweeney, Cunningham, Barton et al. I don’t think we can count on all of them, but if most of them do well and play everyday, we’ll be okay.
The young (especially starting) pitching, on the other hand, cannot be expected to put up zeros all the time, and if they are able to relax a little and know that an ERA of around 4.5 will keep them in games, I think they’ll have a much better chance at success.
So I think the hitters need to produce so the pitchers can relax and not worry about giving up some runs. By doing this, the young pitchers can relax and let their talent take them as far as it will go, instead of getting caught up in the “pitcher’s duel” mentality that they are not developmentally ready to win.
by iceplant on Apr 2, 2009 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post as always, bear88
My “quibbles” are only as follows:
- The more time goes by, the less convinced I am that the A’s gave much of the future away to get Holliday. Beane may feel – and he may well be right – that of Sweeney, Buck, and Gonzalez, and perhaps even Cunningham, Gonzalez will be the least productive as a hitter/overall player. It hurts to lose Street because he was under contract for two more years, but Beane may have assessed Street as someone who peaked young and has had some of his best seasons already. Smith is and always was filler.
- I don’t think Cahill and Anderson made the team because of the A’s outlook on 2009; I think they made the team largely due to circumstance – specifically both Duchscherer AND Gio being unable to answer the bell in April (AND Gallagher completely underwhelming Geren, Young, and Beane). Now I think Anderson would have snuck in anyway, due to the “possible prodigy” angle you acknowledge – he may just be the rare 21 year old who’s as ready as if he were 24 and fresh off a full season of AAA. But Cahill really needed tons of un-contention related, un-Angels related circumstance to rise so fast.
- I’m not ready to concede that the rookies are “almost certain to struggle.” I’m willing to concede that they are almost certain to struggle at times. There’s a big difference.
But then I’m always kooky-optimistic the first week of April. You gotta be!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Apr 2, 2009 5:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nahhhhhh.....you're just kooky!
:)
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Apr 2, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't entirely agree
Losing Street hurts, and even if he/Gonzalez/Smith don’t end up being servicable big leaguers, you still have to look at the opportunity cost of the trade. The fact that Street/Smith/Gonzalez landed a year of Holliday shows that they had value to other teams around the league. It’s possible that we could have packaged them for a different deal that would have had more long term benefit.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Apr 2, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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