Welcome to the first GOG of the 2009 season! GOG stands for "Guess the Outcome Game" and it's your chance to make meaningless predictions for the chance to win fabulous imaginary prizes! One of the best parts about the game is that it doesn't require any special knowledge (though I found that it helped me learn a little bit about players from the opposing teams). So everyone has a shot at winning, from the fantasy league warriors to the casual fans, the statistical masterminds to Joe Morgan.
Some GOG History
The GOG was started in the 2005 season and was run by Alien (who didn't make the switch to new AN, I guess) and Jjjsixsix. Winners for the season were easyraider (winner by points) or Hang Man (winner by average).
In 2006, Alien handed things over to AsGirl. That year's game ran all the way into the ALCS against the Tigers, but I couldn't find any final scores. Also, it was the year that I played the GOG for a while (poorly).
So How Do You Play?
This part is very simple. I will post a list of questions before each A's series (assuming that I can keep up with that pace). Just come up with your answers and leave them as a comment. There is a deadline for the answers, which will typically be first pitch of the series in question.
Questions are scored as follows:
- Yes/no type questions are worth +1 point for a correct answer or -1 point for an incorrect answer. Example: if the question is "Does Matt Holliday hit a HR in the series?" and then he parks an 89 mph fastball from Dustin Moseley into the left field seats, you would get +1 point for answering "yes" and -1 point for answering "no".
- Open ended questions are worth +3 points for a correct answer, with no penalty for a wrong answer. Example: "Which A's pitcher gets the most strikeouts in the series?" would be an open ended question.
- A common question format is to guess some stat line for a particular player in a series. These questions will have three parts, worth two points each, with no penalty for wrong answers. Example: Predict Cust's batting line for the series :: H/HR/STRICKOUTS (correct answer is 2 / 2 / A MILLION!!)
- There will probably be questions with other scoring systems, but those would be explained as they occur.
After each series, I will tally up the scores and keep track of total points and "batting average". For the stat-heads out there, maybe I can replace the batting average once I figure out all of your linear weights, positional adjustments, and park effects.
Plea for Assistance
As Jjjsixsix points out in a fANpost today, the GOG can be a lot of work for whoever is running it. I'm also trying to finish a PhD this year, so it would be awesome if one or more people decided to help out. I'm thinking that we would just set up a rotation and alternate series. I'll add an email address to my SBNation profile in a couple of minutes, so that's a good way to get in touch.
And now for the fun part…
Round 00 of the 2009 GOG is a very special one: you get to make your predictions for the whole 2009 season! Are the A's really contenders this year? Will Billy Beane initiate another fire sale at midseason? Does the entire starting roster hit the DL by end of May? I'm sure that several other season prediction fANposts will go up in the next week. You should weigh in on those, but also post your guesses here, because points from GOG #00 will count double for the final standings.
GOG #00 :: The 2009 Season (75 points possible)
- Predict Oakland's 2009 record [3 points]
- Predict the AL West final standings [+1 for each correct, -1 for each incorrect]
- Which team (AL or NL) finishes with the best record? How many games do they win? [3 points each]
- Name the AL and NL wild card teams [3 points each]
- Which team (AL or NL) is most improved from their 2008 record? Which team declines the most from 2008? [3 points each]
- Which AL teams will the A's have the best and worst win percentage against? [3 points each]
- Does it really have to count? :: Which league wins the All Star Game? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong]
- The Real Greatest Rivalry :: Predict the result of the Oakland-LAAA season series (19 games total) [3 points]
- The Future of the West :: Which minor league system has a better W/L record - Texas or Oakland? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong]
- Does the A's W-L record beat their Pythagorean record? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong]
- Who will lead the 2009 A's in stolen bases? [3 points]
- Being in the Right Place at the Right Time :: Who will lead the A's this season in WPA? [3 points]
- The Starting Rotation :: Who logs the most innings pitched for the 2009 A's? Which A's pitcher with at least 100 IP has the best ERA for the season? [3 points each]
- Injuries, Death, and Taxes :: How many times do the A's use the DL this season? [3 points]
- The Ringer :: Will Matt Holliday still be in an Oakland uniform at the end of the season? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong]
- Giambi's return :: Predict Jason's season totals for AB/BB/HR [2 points each]
- Nooo-mah! :: Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each]
- Someone not named Crosby :: How many games will Cabrera start at SS? [3 points]
- How many games will Duchscherer start this season? [3 points]
- Who earns more saves this season, Devine or Ziegler? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong]
- The MAC Question :: How many Major League innings to Anderson, Cahill, and Mazarro combine to pitch in 2009? [3 points]
Deadline for round #00 is first pitch of the Braves-Phillies game on April 5, 8:00 pm eastern. Good luck!