DLD (3/26/09): Duke feels pain in minor league start
by Brian Heath on Mar 26, 2009 5:30 PM PDT
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PrintJustin Duchscherer's minor-league outing today was not what he and the A's had hoped. He went an inning and decided he could not go out for another because of elbow soreness.
Manager Bob Geren said there is "zero chance" now that Duchscherer will start the home opener two weeks from tomorrow. Instead, the right-hander, a two-time All-Star, will open the season on the disabled list.
This makes it extremely likely that Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill will both be in Oakland's rotation to start the season.
Duke Quotes:
A team source said righty Sean Gallagher, lefty Dana Eveland and top prospects Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are the front-runners to fill the remaining spots, but lefty Josh Outman and righty Edgar Gonzalez are technically still in the hunt.
- "My arm still isn't right," Duchscherer told MLB.com. "I was fine warming up, but as soon as I started throwing at game speed, I knew I wasn't going to last long. It got worse on every pitch. I walked a guy and gave up two singles and a homer and just said, 'I can't pitch like this.'
- "It's probably the most frustrated I've ever been since I started playing baseball."
- "It's hard to even think about, much less talk about," he said. "All I want to do is help this team win, and for whatever reason, my body keeps preventing me from doing that. I really don't know what else to say."
Other A's tidbit:
The Oakland A's took the crown as the system with the most players in the top 100 with six. They were followed closely by the division-rival Texas Rangers and the Atlanta Braves, which each had five.
- Anderson - 19
- Cahill - 24
- Ynoa - 50
- Gonzalez, Gio - 51
- Carter - 84
- Cardenas - 95
Does Scout.com lose any credibility by not having Cunningham or Mazzaro on this list? I would've had them on the list before Gio or Ynoa. Anderson and Cahill should've been ranked higher.
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what?
No Oil Can Boyd on that list – the guy is making a comback at 49 years young – Give him a chance Beane! We need an AARP card member for the early bird specials on the road.
Who has credibility with you?
Scout.com loses credibility by not having Cunningham or Mazzaro on this list. I would have them on the list before Gio or Ynoa.
Is Mazzaro on anyone’s top 100 list? IIRC, everyone (BA, Sickels, Law, BP) has both Ynoa and Gio ahead of Mazzaro.
BA, BP, and Law all have Ynoa ahead of Cunningham.
to me, with all the national exposure that...
Mazzaro has received, you would think he would get more consideration from these prospect ranking entities.
Remember, he has only one good year...
And only one dominant pitch. Scouts want to see a repeat performance and secondary stuff improvement before he cracks the top 100.
That said, I follow prospects really closely, and I’m compiling a top 100 list myself; he may sneak into the back end.
by nomorequada on Mar 27, 2009 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions
So if the A's don't have about 10% of the top prospects...
the people making the list aren’t credible.
One word for that: Homer!!
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Not quantity, quality...
take Gio off the list and replace him with Mazzaro. It all depends on whether or not Scout ranks potential or track record, if it’s potential, than Ynoa belongs – if it’s track record, it should be Cunningham.
I hope Duke doesn't become the new Harden.
His injury time over these last few years just keeps growing.
He was so great when he did long relief.
But that time is past for him too. I think you may be right. A single inning relieg guy might be the best spot for him. Smoltz was terrific when he tried it with the Braves.
he should be our new closer
The Not-So-Casual Fan
That thought occured to me, also.
I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup
Harden is the new Duke
This is not new. Duke’s had injury problems for quite a while. Anyone expecting him to last a full season has not looked at his record.
Do you know the way to San Jose?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Mar 27, 2009 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions
it's their ERA i'm worried about
what have i got myself into this time... http://damiansthirtyyearchallenge.blogspot.com/
by alea iacta est on Mar 26, 2009 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
you know,
at first i was strongly against anderson/cahill in the rotation. but now im just getting pumped to see our top prospects in action. f service time. i wanna be entertained
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
I feel resigned to seeing them.
I still wish that they had more time to mature as minor league guys first,
I honestly feel like it's time to ramp down the '09 optimism
I’ve been as hopeful as any other fan this off-season, with the obvious offensive upgrade. I have no doubt the team will be at least a little better than last year — and a lot more entertaining.
But is that rotation even potentially worthy of a contending team, even with the Angels having downsized themselves? Someone else will have to tell me how many combined MLB starts/innings Eveland, Braden & Gallagher have, but it isn’t a lot, and none of them have exactly been lights-out. I personally believe one or more of them could actually exceed expectations; they all have the potential of being 3-4 starters. (Gallagher could even end up better than that imo.)
But what we’re asking of them in ‘09 is that all 3 exceed expectations by a lot, right away, because they’re pitching in a rotation whose back end is 2 guys who’ve barely pitched above A-ball. Sure, I’m excited to see Cahill & Anderson face big-league hitters, and the world seems to agree they will eventually be good-to-very-good MLB starting pitchers. But it would be shocking to see them dominate right out of the gate. For them to be slightly below-average starters at this stage would be a major success.
What can we reasonably expect, taking that rotation on road trips into Anaheim and Fenway and Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome? To get killed, that’s what.
or BB will have to trade for veteran starter...
or do something crazy like sign Pedro, just pray they’re ready and not rushed
the other issue is who will be in the bullpen
I can’t find the link at the moment…but I saw somewhere a mention of Geren wanting two long relievers in the pen. (Hey, when your veteran is Dallas Braden that’s not really surprising…I think he actually has the most MLB experience on the likely starting rotation.)
The bullpen is likely to be Devine (hopefully healthy), Ziegler, Springer, Casilla (all short, late inning types), Wuertz, Blevins (both have had lousy springs but still may be in, or at least one of them), and — if healthy — Gio. Of all of these only Gio might be seen as a long reliever, as he might be called a “starter” type..
Another possibility, Andrew Bailey, is another late innings short reliever type.
If Geren wants another long reliever we may be looking at another starter type.
Bailey isn't a short reliever...
He was a starter until halfway through last year in Double-A.
by nomorequada on Mar 26, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Dana Eveland has more MLB experience than Braden.
The Brewers put him in the rotation for most of the 2005 season.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."
Not most, just a little, but...
Still, Eveland has 232 1/3 MLB IP, Braden only has 144.
Gallagher’s right behind with 130.
I can't wait for first pitch!
Hell, I can barely wait to be waiting in line for the gates to open…at this rate I’ll be wasted before we even park our vehicle!
Go A’s!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
This could go really well this season
or really bad.
Braden starting opening day should sum up how a lot of us are feeling – uncertainty. But with that, comes the promise of our youth coming up and gaining exp earlier then expected.
you have to believe Anderson & Cahill will take their lumps this year
the a’s may need to scour the waiver wire to see if there are any decent fill-in starters as they approach opening day
Man, this is going to be aseason full
mountain top highs and grand canyon lows with a rotation that young. The offense finally improves and the pitching is going to be very unpredictable.
With the Duke and it looks like Lackey both starting th season on the DL, anyone not think the AL West is going to be super tight race with Tex, LAA and Oak all fighting till the last few weeks in the season? If both miss significant time, Texas has a real chance.
What, no love for the Mariners?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."
actually, the Angels have (at least on paper)
a stronger rotation than do the A’s, even with Lackey and Santana on the DL.
If the Rangers get better than expected performance from their pitchers the A’s may end up in third place again.
Most writers think the Mariners are still a ways away from a winning season.
sounds like Santana will join Lackey on the DL
they’re talking about Moseley and Loux starting for them – I’d take A & C over them any day of the week
Is lackey that hurt?
I thought I read that he wanted to go but was shut down. He is still scheduled to start next wednesday. Has that changed?
Granted if the A’s said that, it would be safe to assume he was missing a leg.
from rotoworld:
According to the Los Angeles Times, Ervin Santana “will probably miss all of April because of a sprained elbow ligament.”
Santana said earlier this week that he expects to avoid surgery and he’s already begun a throwing program. With Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey also hurting, the Angels may have Nick Adenhart, Dustin Moseley and Shane Loux in the Opening Day rotation.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 26, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Santana has always been headed there....Lackey still up in the air.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Mar 26, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
dude!
you scared me for a second, I thought you meant Johan Santana. I need him on my fantasy team.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
so instead of MAC...
how ’bout AC (Anderson-Cahill) / DZ (Devine/Ziegler)
Starts with Anderson and Cahill, ends with Devine and Ziegler
“AC/DZ”
Considering the relative age of the players on the team
I think School Days would be appropriate. No, not that School Days, this one.
Chicago. Where the Dead can Vote. Where the Voters of Tomorrow are found in the Obituaries of Today.
good call
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 26, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions
She's Got the Jack
But how was I to know that he’d been pitched to before?
He told me he was a rookie…
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 26, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
unfortunately
it’s highway to hell
Do you know the way to San Jose?
by eastcoasta'sfan on Mar 27, 2009 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Does it mean that they always have to choose the alternative unis
and the guys in front of them always have to go standard?
That way when they pitch we will be Back in Black.
(Too much work for too little pay-off, right?)
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
TNT
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 26, 2009 7:20 PM PDT reply actions
Dynamite
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 26, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
In a word Fuck
I was really hoping that Duke would be able to keep at least one of Mr. Anderson or K-hill off the roster allow them to get needed seasoning and save their service time in Sacramento. I really hope Outman makes it in the rotation.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Mar 26, 2009 7:27 PM PDT reply actions
reply fail
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Mar 26, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Seems to be a lot of that in this thread
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Mar 27, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions
kind of agree
Both as to “Fuck” and as to Outman, but as far as the latter goes the writing is on the wall. He did get lit up the other day, and there seems to be a widely held opinion that he’s going to end up in the bullpen as a major leaguer. But in his 3-4 starts last year he struck me as one of those unimpressive minor leaguers who might be able to step up his game mysteriously at the ML level.
I realize the bogosity, superstition and general “gritty-gamer”ness of that opinion.
Duke news is a disaster.....
Not getting better and clearly something is VERY wrong….He is so important to this staff too, really disappointing. He sounds like he knows it is not goinh to end well.
Bring back Hammer.
TJS
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Mar 27, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
?
Adopted Giant: Clayton Tanner (unless someone tells me he's already been adopted)
"He [Sandoval] is a big, puffy crouton in our wilted salad of a lineup. Do No matter how bad a movie is a eight game sweep is wacky in baseball, so a one run loss in the series is not the end of the world. disparage the comedian." -sfgiantstoday
by walkoff baltimore chop on Mar 27, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Tommy John surgery
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Mar 27, 2009 3:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks.
Adopted Giant: Clayton Tanner (unless someone tells me he's already been adopted)
"He [Sandoval] is a big, puffy crouton in our wilted salad of a lineup. Do No matter how bad a movie is a eight game sweep is wacky in baseball, so a one run loss in the series is not the end of the world. disparage the comedian." -sfgiantstoday
by walkoff baltimore chop on Mar 27, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup, TJS, the thought that's slowly creeping into everyone's mind...
Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen that way…
he'll be ok....
counting the $3.9 mil, that is
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 26, 2009 7:52 PM PDT reply actions
The news about Duke is dissapointing
but I am excited to see what Cahill and Anderson can do.
"Lets Go Oakland"
We need Duke Health so he can be a type A free agent.
Get well Duke!
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
on BB2N,
Gammons, Kurkjian (who apparently is going through puberty again), and Buster Onley had a mini-draft of “young pitching talent”—both Cahill and Anderson were taken in the top six, along with Price, the kid from SDSU, the guy in the Braves organization, and the young kid that’s going to be in the Angels rotation this year.
Hate to be so detail-specific to all you “amateurs” out there.
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
Strasburg (SDSU), Thomas Hansen (ATL), and Nick Adenhart (LAAAAAAAA)?
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Don't know about Adenhart
If I remember correctly, even we kicked him around last year. Didn’t he have several games against the A’s where he failed to get out of the first inning?
Chicago. Where the Dead can Vote. Where the Voters of Tomorrow are found in the Obituaries of Today.
Well, Peter Gammons or a teenage Tim Kurkjian disagree.
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
No, not several.
He debuted against us, and we hammered him. (I’m pretty sure he did get past the 1st though.) A couple more starts that year against others he was better but still not good. Then he went back down to AAA.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."
Wow...one of these doesn't belong!
Adenhart is a B- prospect now.
Seriously, there’s Brian Matusz, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Davis, Ynoa, etc. and they’re going with Adenhart???
by nomorequada on Mar 26, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno...
but, I got the impression they were “drafting” pitchers who might actually see some big league action, this year. Not being a prospects expert, I don’t know about Matusz, Bumgarner or Davis, but I have my doubts about Ynoa hitting the bigs this year. Would be cool if he did, but…
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions
At the rate our pitchers are dropping...
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Mar 27, 2009 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, my bad...I didn't realize that we're just talking big-league guys...
Yeah, then no on Ynoa and maybe Bumgarner as well. Don’t rule out Davis hitting the bigs with the Rays though, so I stand by him.
Hell, if we’re talking just big-league-ready guys, then I’d take Mazzaro over Adenhart. And a few others…
by nomorequada on Mar 27, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
theyre sending Price down to keep Niemann...
I think that they would have to move two starters or have injuries for Davis to make sense in the rotation since Price is probably a head of Davis in line.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Mar 27, 2009 3:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Gammons actually mentioned Mazzaro
when he made his 2nd pick. Said he had a great arm, but I don’t think they wanted to give the A’s that much attention so instead of having 1/2 of the top 6 guys, we only had 1/3. It was pretty nice seeing 2 of our guys getting some attention, especially considering they were talking about all of the MLB and college pitchers who may be ready to make the jump and contribute in 2009. When our guys are being mentioned among Strasburg and Price you gotta get a little excited.
Wait, how is Strasburg supposed to pitch in the bigs? Is he that good...
That he’s going straight from college? I mean, the guy’s apparently amazing, but look at what the Rays just did with Price. Every team seems really cautious with pitchers these days, so unless it’s a September gimmick (like the Nats with Detwiler in ‘07), I doubt we’ll see much of Strasburg in the bigs until maybe ASB ’10.
by nomorequada on Mar 27, 2009 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions
good question...
but, my answer might be… if you threw Strasburg into our rotation, right now, he might be a #2 (maybe #1):
Season stats
Record ERA IP H R ER BB SO
Stephen Strasburg 4-0 1.57 34.1 21 7 6 7 74
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 1:46 AM PDT up reply actions
ooops...
finger slipped before I could align that properly.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 1:47 AM PDT up reply actions
but, the important (yet almost undecipherable) part...
74 strickouts in 34.1 innings.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions
With only 7 walks
A 10.5 K/BB rate is in fricking sane no matter what level of ball youre playing.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Mar 27, 2009 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions
yes
I read an article that said in his last start his first pitch was at 99 then after that he ranged from 100-102, and he is supposed to have good control.
"Lets Go Oakland"
They're saying he hits 103...
and they’re also saying he’s the best pitching prospect ever.
Of course, I remember a certain TVP that was supposed to guide us through the 90’s…
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I forget who it was
but some baseball talking head type suggested that he thought Strasburg could outpitch AJ Burnett this year in the Majors. And AJ was the #2 pitching free agent this offseason.
I’m sure he was being hyperbolic, but it seems like there is strong agreement that Strasburg is essentially major league ready right now.
They were saying on BB2N
last night that he could realistically pitch in the major leagues this season, provided that the Nationals (or whomever) could cut a deal with Drew Rosenhaus
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
or rather Rosenhaus's evil twin, Scott Boras.
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
your description made me laugh
it sounds like how i try to describe films to people.
yknow, that guy who was in that one with whatsisface. with the hair, yeah
what have i got myself into this time... http://damiansthirtyyearchallenge.blogspot.com/
by alea iacta est on Mar 26, 2009 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I gotta start trying being real around here and stop trying to sound so damn smart all the time.
It serves no purpose, other than to artificially inflate my ego.
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
So here's the opening day rotation:
Braden
Eveland
Gallagher
Anderson
Cahill
(in some order or other)
Question is now whether Outman makes the bullpen or not.
Apparently Eveland is way off track for the season opener...
So I’d guess it’s more like:
Braden
Gallagher
Anderson
Eveland
Cahill
On the bullpen, I wonder why we sent down Gray so early. He might be able to help out the bullpen.
By the way, I wouldn’t be worried about Wuertz; he has a history of bad springs and good seasons.
by nomorequada on Mar 26, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions
ummm... that's what I've been saying since...
September 2008. LOL
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
That Anderson and Cahill would be...
in the rotation.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Holy shit!
We’re going to need all 5 pitching on Opening Day!
AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The monster at the end of this blog.
the way they have been pitching this spring it is possible ;-)
btw, I can see the puppet grover yelling argh in my mind. Ah, childhood memories.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Cunningham
The reason why he’s not on the list is because he doesn’t project as a star anywhere. He’s above-average across the board offensively, but he’s probably going to be in LF, and you need a bit more power than he has to be a star on that side of the D-spectrum.
(That said, I’m still optimistic he can be Jason Bay lite).
Honestly though, while part of me sort of has to stand up for the Scout.com ratings (I write for them), I think Cahill, Anderson, Ynoa, and Carter are all ranked too low, esp. Ynoa. BP had Ynoa at like 20, and according the the BA Scouting Handbook, most experts have him in the top 50. Obviously, he’s forever from the bigs, but he’s a once-in-a-generation talent. Carter has been compared by scouts to Ryan Howard and could be a middle-of-the-lineup force as soon as September. Cahill and Anderson—well, I think we all have almost too much info about them at this point, the way the spring battles are being watched.
I've been trumping this position since the beginning but now I'm just going to use hyperbole to drive home the point:
If upper management places Anderson and Cahill in the opening day rotation, then I would consider that decision to be one of the biggest mistakes of the Beane administration.
Most of the reasons against their inclusion are already stated numerous times repeatedly in various Anderson/Cahill threads so I’m going to save everyone the headache of a long winded post by not rehashing them here. But I will say this though, few people if any (and this includes the media, scouts, and pretty much everyone on this site) were clamoring for them to be on the big league club on opening day 2009 before spring training began. This leads me to believe:
1. Most people (those who weren’t for them in rotation before spring training began but now are have changed their position, basing their opinion on the ~15 or so innings Cahill and Anderson have pitched.
2. Since 1 happened, people still don’t understand how meaningless analysis can be if it’s based on such small sample size, and how it can lead to shoddy opinions and decision-making.
Of course, there is an argument that small sample sizes matter less for spring training but I don’t buy into it, unless actual studies are done to confirm it. Even if true, a sample of ~15 innings is STILL ridiculously, preposterously too small. But hey it’s spring training, people change opinions and jump on and off bandwagons with each start and inning pitched (see Mazzaro, Vince).
Bottom line, Cahill and Anderson are not more or less ready for MLB than they were before spring training began. The small handful of spring training innings they have pitched does NOT magically change that fact (if it did, spring training should be worshipped as a magical prospect-development accelerator). I’ve stated this before but the odds of a pitching prospect making the jump from AA to MLB and even putting up league average numbers are very unfavorable, and it is NOT a risk A’s management should be taking this season with the most prized arms in the organization. I’m not sure I’m being hyperbolic when I say that as Cahill and Anderson’s fortunes go, so do the A’s.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I sort of agree...but I don't think that's quite the point
Very few around here are sure that Anderson and Cahill are going to be great MLB pitchers in ’09. All I, and others, seem to be saying is that they can pitch better than Edgar Gonzalez and Jerome Williams.
Honestly, I went into ST thinking they wouldn’t make it, and that they may or may not need more seasoning. I didn’t even really think about if they were ready because I assumed they weren’t going to be put in the bigs. I was hoping, actually, for a Duke-Braden-Gallagher-Eveland-Simmons rotation, with Gio getting more seasoning in Sacramento with Cahill and Anderson.
However, Simmons imploded, as did Mazzaro. Gio got hurt. Duke got hurt. We sent Jerome Williams down (in a regrettable decision). I’ve never liked Edgar Gonzalez, and he’s showed why.
I could still make the ST doesn’t matter, so we should go back to Simmons argument, but honestly, ST innings can mean a lot for prospects. Rewind to the post-Mulder/Hudson, still-Zito days. In ST 2005, there were two “rookie locks” for the rotation; Dan Meyer and Joe Blanton. Joe had a nice ERA of around 3, Meyer had an ERA up near 8. Meyer was considered to be more advanced AND higher upside going into that spring. However, we all know where Blanton and Meyer have gone since. ST isn’t decisive, but if someone gets knocked around BAD a few times, they clearly need seasoning (if they’re young) or something’s wrong (if they’re an established big leaguer).
Anyway, back to the point. Simmons has failed. Mazzaro has failed. Gio is hurt. Edgar Gonzalez has failed.
Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, in their pro careers, have never failed.
Does that mean they won’t fail. Hell no! But the point is, it’s worth a shot to try guys who have some sort of chance at success rather than a proven track record of failure.
Anyway, that’s my stance.
+1
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 27, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this does a decent job of summing things up, and agree with most of it
(though I never thought Simmons or Mazzaro was seriously in danger of making the ML roster out of spring training.)
I think, lenscrafters, that your overall opinion is perfectly valid- but you might want to ease off on the “bandwagon” characterizations and the harping on how “people still don’t understand how meaningless analysis can be if it’s based on such small sample size, and how it can lead to shoddy opinions and decision-making.”
I previously responded to your characterizations in another thread and your questioning of thought process for those who are in the “put Anderson in the ML rotation now” camp here: http://www.athleticsnation.com/2009/3/22/806980/the-case-for-brett-anderso#13318045
so there’s no need to restate all of that. I do believe there are valid concerns in promoting both Anderson and Cahill at this time, but if they’re the best options available and the organization believes they’re ready for a shot… I say give ‘em a shot, and if they don’t stick then they’ll at least learn a few things and know what they have to work on to have success at the MLB level when they come back up.
by still bills kingdom on Mar 27, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry I didn't respond to your earlier comment
I think I was drafting a response but got distracted by a certain 950 comment thread.
Anyways, I think that comment had really thorough analysis but I cannot agree with your last paragraph about small sample size not meaning as much in spring training. Like I said, it’s not something that is supported by any evidence and really, a small sample size is not actually valid for any analysis, not just baseball-related.
I think, lenscrafters, that your overall opinion is perfectly valid- but you might want to ease off on the "bandwagon" characterizations and the harping on how "people still don’t understand how meaningless analysis can be if it’s based on such small sample size, and how it can lead to shoddy opinions and decision-making."
Granted, my tone might have come off a little condescending and for that I apologize. However, it has been incredibly frustrating to read flip-flopping opinions on MAC and their “readiness” with every single start. Take a guy like Mazzaro, who after his 8 shutout innings to start ST, nearly all on this site were arguing for his inclusion in the rotation. But after he had two crappy starts, suddenly public opinion was that he was definitely not “ready”, to the point where even the guy you responded to proclaimed he “failed”? That’s amazing to me. Anyways, my whole point is that the 4 or so spring training starts really don’t prove if a pitcher has failed or succeeded.
Heck, even Nico (who I respect for most of his baseball insights) was prone to this. In the start where Cahill gave up 4 in 3 IP, he proclaimed that Cahill had mechanics issues and “he would benefit from some AAA time to refine that consistency.” In his next start, Cahill pitched very well and Nico suddenly says “he’s making a strong case” to be in the rotation? Should we really change our minds about pitchers with every start like this? Let’s say it’s the regular season and pitcher A pitched 8 innings of shutout ball in one start, should we proclaim him Cy Young? Consequently, if he got shelled in his next start, should we proclaim him an utter failure?
Heh, if Cahill/Anderson get shelled in their next starts, I guarantee you that public opinion on them will change in an instant.
Lastly, discounting ST results (which we really should do IMO), there is no concrete proof that A/C can do better than Outman and E. Gonzalez.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Mar 27, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for a really thorough response- and, for the record, I don't have any issue
myself with your tone and was just sort of cautioning that you might get knee-jerk (or just jerk, for that matter) reactions by taking too sharp a tone and all. And you did say in your original comment that you were deliberately venturing into hyperbole to firmly make your point, so no worries anyway!
Now, as to the bandwagon stuff- I can fully grasp your frustrations with that, and I think you’re right to sound the alarm and act as a voice of rationality in response to it. I agree that it can get tiresome seeing opinions shift every day based on the latest game performance… but it’s kind of part and parcel to the fan experience to live and die with each pitch or at-bat, even in the spring, so I think it’s more a matter of fans being emotionally involved with their team and being excited about the upcoming season than anything else. And Nico needs something to write about, and I think we’d both agree he’s way too seasoned and intelligent to seriously base his entire opinion of any pitcher on one outing- so I suspect he’s just trying to encourage discussion by positing the cases he suggests. Or that his opinions are based on more than just a particular outing, and he is using an outing as an example of why he believes what he does, rather than basing that belief on the one outing.
Anyway, where I agree with you is that we should all definitely temper our enthusiasm or disgust for players based on a small sample size of results. Where we disagree is that the performance and process that led to those results, even in a limited sample size like cactus league play, is not relevant- I believe it is relevant, especially when we’re talking about young players who are still developing. We can agree to disagree on this, I’ve no problem with that. Like I said in my earlier comment, I just get really tired of hearing “it means nothing whatsoever” without any qualification- I agree that the stats themselves aren’t very meaningful for projecting long-term performance, but I do think it’s very possible to analyze how the results were obtained (whether good or bad, actually) from a sample size like cactus league play and make some evaluations. I greatly suspect major league teams feel this way too, or they wouldn’t factor how a player is performing during the spring into making roster decisions… and the A’s wouldn’t be partially basing who’s in the major league rotation this year on how a group of candidates are pitching, right?
As to your final point regarding Anderson and Cahill versus Outman and E. Gonzalez in terms of “concrete proof” the former will outperform the latter- you’re right, I think, that it’s hard to make a serious stat-based argument for that (though I’m sure a valid attempt could be made by somebody more determined than myself!)
I don’t consider it a lock at all that Anderson and Cahill will do better- it’s a judgment call, and one that should be made, imo, based on all pitchers’ prior performance as well as their abilities and, yes, how well they seem to be pitching right now, too.
by still bills kingdom on Mar 27, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
One thing I'd like to call attention to, with regards to the small sample size...
One of the reasons that everyone writes off ST performance is because everyone is just “getting in shape” and such. There isn’t as much importance, less adrenaline, etc.
Clearly, any spring means more to guys who have something to prove, however. For example, if over in Seattle, Felix Hernandez puts up a 20.00 ERA in ST but is healthy, he knows he’ll still be either the #1 or #2 guy for the Mariners. Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday could strike out in 75% of their PA’s and still form the heart of the A’s order. Those guys don’t care too much about ST, they’re just tinkering with new mechanics and swings and getting in shape. Therefore, their stats don’t mean much.
However, if you’re a guy like Mazzaro, Cahill, Anderson, either Gonzalez, etc. spring means much more because you know it will define where you pitch in April. Take Edgar Gonzalez, for example. He’s bounced around with little success, but knows he’s got a realistic shot at making this rotation if he pitches well. Therefore, to him, the game is of major league importance.
Now, many players Gonzalez faces aren’t nearly as worried about their job status as him. Some know they’re going to be in a big league uniform; others know they won’t be. If the game means more to someone like Gonzalez than the hitters, then there’s even less of an excuse for outings like that 2/3 IP, 7 ER one the other day. If he can’t get carefree, out-of-shape big leaguers and minor leaguers out in March, how is he going to get better, more focused big leaguers out in April?
Yes, it’s small sample size, and I agree a lot with the start-to-start vacillation issues you have, but writing off spring performance entirely isn’t a good idea when you’re talking about heated battles like this. It’s not life-and-death, but it’s certainly something to be watched, and when someone like Edgar Gonzalez or Josh Outman or Vin Mazzaro just can’t get get anyone out with a chance at the bigs on the line, why should we believe they’ll be able to in April? Anderson and Cahill are the only two who have done a reasonably decent job of pitching under the pressure of the spring battles, and that is important, no matter the sample size.
I'm not keen on Cahill and Anderson heading straight to Oakland after ST
But the way other arms keep imploding (Egon, Duke, Gio) there may not be any choice.
The monster at the end of this blog.
i'm not keen on it
from a purely economic stance.
I’m for using Outman and Egon for 3-4 starts each (if we skip them when possible), until the obligatory clock time has passed when we can have TC and BA for an extra year. The hope is that in the first month, a solid defense coupled with hitting rust, will allow us to at least get by.
It would really just be economically irresponsible to bring them up. Who knows when we will get a new stadium and new capital to retain them. That extra year will be huge. Even if only one of them pans out per TINSTAAPP.
I’m not saying they won’t do well. But that shouldn’t be the point, even with these one year contracts for some of the offensive players.
Also, after the last round of roster cuts who knows who might be available.
I am looking at you Kirk Saarloos.
Saarloos Part 3
Might as well exhume the bodies of Gil Heredia and Steve Ontiveros, too.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Mar 27, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
No skipping of starts available for the first few weeks
Which just happens to be the amount of time the young’uns need to stay in the minors to save an extra year of service time.
The monster at the end of this blog.
But we can send them back down later and still save that year can't we?
Like when Gio is ready and when/if Duke is ready.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Thats what I was thinking.
If Beane really thinks that we have a shot to contend then you want your best pitchers the whole year. Maybe we catch lighting in a bottle and they pitch as good as Liriano or Lincecum did when they first came up, and we contend.
If they struggle or we fall out of contention then send them down and we still save a year.
Just because they start the year in the bigs doesn’t mean they are going to be there all year.
"Macha hates you"- Tacoma fans heckling Kielty
There are always choices
I would throw everyone else in there and just try to put off their arby clock as long as possible. If one of the Braden/Eveland/Outman/Williams/Gallagher rotation sucks it up too badly after 4 or 5 starts, start bringing the kids in one at a time. Rushing them is the worst thing the team could do right now.
amen, sister.
"A sign I made broke today,or maybe yesterday. I don’t know." -5aces
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
CAN YOU DIG IT?!
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lumurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Why hello there, children.
And today’s “Did you know”…
Isaac Hays was once part owner of the Memphis Tams of the ABA. He bought the team from the previous owner-
Charlie Finley.
So now you can play the “six degrees of the Oakland A’s” and get from Brian Boitano to the A’s in like less than 6 steps.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
And there's finally a Duchscherer T-shirt in the A's store this year...
...then Pennington takes over.
I used to be optimistic about the 2009 season
but with Duke down with an “unknown” injury I am starting to get a little scared. IMO Having a true #1 starter is very important. I guess I will just have to cross my fingers that somebody in the rotation has a career year or something.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I have a feeling that Braden...
Could do just that.
Why did we sign Orlando when...
I’ll treat this as a just a weak threat by Hanley, but I wounder if there could be a Crosby/Hanley trade?
We'd have to throw in some Maple Bats
But otherwise it’s about even.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
and now I see why we signed those two catchers
Hanley bait.
Everything is sunshine when you are Ray Fosse, bitches.
Clean Cut teams are stupid
do fans really care if a guy has cornrows? I think not, but that is just my opinion.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
Should I order a pizza?
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lumurspoker
That sounds tasty.
No peppers or onions. What time should I be over? At the half of the OU/Syracuse game? And get some Ranch dressing.
"Smells like summer camp!"
pepperoni and mushroom
I prefer Roquefort…I hope that’s okay.
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lumurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Mushrooms and olives - my fave.
I hope you have Pepsi, too. Three ice cubes and a bendy straw. And I’m allergic to Roquefort. You’re tryinig to kill me, huh?
"Smells like summer camp!"
Pepsi's good.
Wait a minute…bendy straws? Are you my ex-wife?
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lumurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
She kept them in the night stand.
"If I told you once, I told you a thousand times: get yourself a hacksaw and a roll of duck tape, and attach your ankle-bracelet monitor to the leg of a gator." -lumurspoker
by Leopold Bloom on Mar 27, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
ditto on the mushrooms & olives
It’s a long plane flight for me. Any chance you can bring pizza up to Philadelphia’s airport? Say Sunday night, between 4-8pm? I’ll be hanging out in the domestic terminal waiting for my flight….
There's no crying in baseball!
Duchscherer to get surgery
This just in from Slusser:
Manager Bob Geren just announced that Justin Duchscherer will have arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow early next week, presumably to detemine the source of continual sorenees in his elbow. The surgeon and location have yet to be determined. Recovering from surgery, even if nothing major is discovered to be repaired, likely would take six weeks at a minimum.
:(
Adopted Giant: Clayton Tanner (unless someone tells me he's already been adopted)
"He [Sandoval] is a big, puffy crouton in our wilted salad of a lineup. Do No matter how bad a movie is a eight game sweep is wacky in baseball, so a one run loss in the series is not the end of the world. disparage the comedian." -sfgiantstoday
by walkoff baltimore chop on Mar 27, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Eric Munson
I see on the Roto sidebar we got him for a minor-league contract. Isn’t Munson Chavvy’s best buddy from high school, or am I getting him mixed up with some other Eric?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."
Shamwow guy
ShamWow Guy In Slap, Chop Bust
TV pitchman battered hooker in South Beach hotel room brawl
pictures. looks like the hooker got him good.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
For the fashion-conscious:
Pair your hospital gown with a plush-collared jacket with naugahyde piping to top off quite the très chic ensemble (ShamWow manpris not shown).
...then Pennington takes over.
ok, almost a day late, but someone has to say it
Guess she didn’t love his nuts…
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
she didn't like his tounge either
she bit it and wouldn’t let go.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
After this outing from Cahill tonight...
Raise your hand if you miss Kirk Saarloos, Brad Knox, and Dan Meyer. Seriously.
{raises both hands}
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
Well...IMO...
Knox > E. Gonzalez
Meyer (as SP) > Outman (as SP)
Anyone think different?
has Knox had any experience in MLB?
Meyer didn’t show much in the little he had with the A’s (I’m referring to last season, when he was recovered from his injuries and surgery).
Knox may be better than E Gon, but there simply isn’t enough data available at the major league level.
No, he hasn't...
But to me, no track record is better than a terrible one, if the minor league numbers are OK. There’s less of a stench of failure, know what I mean?
Anyways, it’s a shame the Dodgers snapped up Knox in the offseason. He’s a nice depth guy with a great curve that could fool MLB hitters for a month. By the time they’d figure it out, Cahill/Anderson’s arb clocks have already been set back a year, and the mission would be accomplished. Just sayings.
Yeah, Meyer didn’t show much, but he’s better suited to starting than Outman. Fewer control issues.
Knox to LAA, not LAD
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Mar 28, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
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