Anderson Eyeing Starting Rotation (Game Recap)

Dye’s double was probably the only really hard hit ball. Thome’s double after Dye’s was a ball that would have been caught if not for the ridiculous wind today (which also robbed Sweeney of a potential homer) according to Korach. Anderson was also robbed of not 1 but 2 outs when his infielders botched surefire pickoffs.

This was a very good outing by Anderson. The 7 hits are just a SSS BABIP blip.

If Duke goes 4 innings next week (Giants Series), he is the “5th Starter”, and Cahill starts in AAA… which is fine by me.

Wuertz > Bailey

Outman or Blevins seems to be the big question.

I’d like to see our everday Starting Lineup play together for a string of games before I start worrying.

1. Buck
2. Cabrera
3. Holliday
4. Giambi
5. Cust
6. Chavez/Nomah
7. Sweeney
8. Suzuki
9. Ellis

He’s either:

—hitting with a runner on (most likely) first, in which case a K is better than a double play. Not many balls in play are going to move the runner over from first, unless you give up an out to do so (bunting);
—hitting with a runner in scoring position, in which case he’s as capable as anyone on the team of doing damage—and even if he doesn’t move to third, the runner is still in scoring position with one out; or
— most likely hitting with nobody on base and one out, in which case he needs to get on base (and he’s the best guy on the team at doing that, except for maybe Holliday)

You want a #2 who gets on base. After that, it’s nice if he doesn’t hit into a lot of DP’s. And, when it comes to good contact and moving the runner over, chicks (and managers) dig the long ball.

Here is a good description of the rules that the authors of The Book found make for the highest scoring lineups.

link

I haven’t read The Book, so I can’t say for sure what the methodology behind the study was. I can say that it certainly involved running many Monte Carlo lineup simulations to estimate run scoring in each case. Also, as they point out in the BtB article, in any specific case, you can probably do slightly better by doing Monte Carlo with your own players, instead of just following the general rules.

Does anyone know if baserunning is included in the simulations? They mention basestealing in the lineup optimization rules, but in such an ad hoc way that I’m not sure they really calculated it.

Unless Anderson just jumps straight into being a force, which isn’t likely given his age and experience. It doesn’t contain that black hole that many teams have at #4 and #5, though.

That’s something like the Twins last year. I’m thinking they’ll be in the mid to high 4.00s at best. Why wouldn’t they be?

until I see him pitch decently in spring training.

Waiting….

That is the altitude when the A’s step on the Diamond. The youngin’s can get a taste in the MLB with thick air. Reallly, really thick air.

Braden
Gallagher
Eveland
Anderson
Cahill

Devine
Ziggy
Duke
Springer
Outman/Blevins
Wuertz
Bailey

Casilla + Prospect for Aaron Heilman

then I’m not all that displeased that he won’t be donning the Green and Gold this year.

from Slusser:

Geren is not sure what is next for Duchscherer, who already has seen Dr. Lewis Yocum about the elbow. Nothing significant turned up on the MRI, which could mean that exploratory surgery is next. That is considered a measure of last resort because it would require many weeks of rehab time even if there is no damage found.

From Urban:

Beane said he couldn’t confirm that Duchscherer would start the season on the DL, noting that it’s a decision that ultimately will be made by the team’s medical staff after more information is gathered.

He certainly sounded resigned to such a scenario, however. The A’s had been holding out hope that they’d have Duchscherer ready to throw about 70 pitches by April 10, allowing him to start in Oakland’s home opener. That assignment, Beane conceded, will now go to someone else.