Cabrera at the Coliseum
So, in the big Cabrera thread, someone pointed out his career .226/.265/.314 batting line at the Coliseum and wondered if we should be worried. Someone else pointed out that this sample was all of 151 plate appearances, and that no, we shouldn't be worried. Then it got into a discussion of just what pitchers it was that Cabrera was facing. The Big 3? Or, since he only joined the AL in 2004, someone else? Out of boredom, I thought I'd look up just who those PA's came against. So, in it's entirety, a list of the pitchers Cabrera has faced in Oakland in his career, how many times he's faced them, and what lines he put up against said pitchers:
| Barry Zito | 20 | .105 | .105 | .105 |
| Joe Blanton | 18 | .250 | .333 | .313 |
| Dan Haren | 17 | .313 | .313 | .375 |
| Rich Harden | 12 | .273 | .333 | .273 |
| Chad Gaudin | 8 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Justin Duchscherer | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Esteban Loaiza | 5 | .400 | .400 | .600 |
| Tim Hudson | 5 | .500 | .600 | .500 |
| Dallas Braden | 4 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Kirk Saarloos | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Joe Kennedy | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Greg Smith | 3 | .667 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 3 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Kiko Calero | 3 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Lenny DiNardo | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Brad Halsey | 3 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Huston Street | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Mark Redman | 3 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Mark Mulder | 3 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Santiago Casilla | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Andrew Brown | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ron Flores | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Octavio Dotel | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chad Bradford | 2 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Arthur Rhodes | 2 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Aaron Harang | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| John Halama | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Ricardo Rincon | 1 | XXX | 1.000 | XXX |
| Joey Devine | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jerry Blevins | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Alan Embree | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Juan Cruz | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chris Hammond | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Jim Mecir | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 |
| Keith Foulke | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
*Rincon only faced Cabrera once and walked him.
1 recs |
19 comments
Comments
In other words, it's much ado about nothing
Pretty good pitchers up there at the top of the list that he faced the most.
If anyone wanted to (and I don’t) they could check out how he’s fared against some of those other pitchers over his career as well.
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by Flashfire on Mar 2, 2009 7:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Taking park specific numbers and ignoring other data is ignorant and cheap analysis.
It’s like ignoring what Holliday did at Coors and only looking at his slash line at away parks.
Take OCab’s numbers and park factor them, don’t take his Coliseum numbers.
by lailaihei on Mar 2, 2009 7:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No,
Taking park-specific numbers and ignoring other data and pretending that small sample represents the whole is ignorant and cheap analysis. Taking a look at that sample and seeing how it came to be is not. Confusing the two when I’m making no assessment or projection whatsoever based on that sample is annoying and obnoxious.
by Nate on Mar 2, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This was interesting
to look at. TY for looking it up.
by IM4Oakgal on Mar 2, 2009 7:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for not being as lazy as me
I just guessed that he’d faced mostly good pitchers!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 8:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
As it happens, he faced mostly good pitchers
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Mar 2, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fear Mecir for Cabrera's BP pitcher!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Mar 2, 2009 8:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
for some reason all this does
is remind me that one time, Barry Zito won the Cy Young. boy that seems like a long time ago.
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Mar 2, 2009 9:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
We must, and I repeat, MUST
not let him face Chad Gaudin at the Coliseum!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 9:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Zito either.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we convince the Angels to sign Loaiza?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Mar 2, 2009 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for putting this together
I enjoyed taking a glance at it.
by SkipT on Mar 2, 2009 11:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I want Zito back
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 3, 2009 1:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hudson and Mulder...
not so much.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 3, 2009 1:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we asked the Giants to trade him
I bet they would.
by Nate on Mar 3, 2009 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how bout we trade
crosby to the giants and pay his salary. in return we get zito and they pay his salary. sounds good to me.
by ianbbc02 on Mar 4, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't want Zito back even if the Giants paid his entire salary
The trends are definitely going in the wrong direction. He doesn’t have the control to be a reliable reliever. The A’s would have to cut him before long if not right away. I’d rather allow the Giants to enjoy the full scope of their stupid decision for several more years.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on Mar 4, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Better nate than lever
Thanks Nate. I missed this a few days ago. So, almost half (72) of the 151 ABs came against the Big 2+3 (Zito, Hudson, Haren, Harden, Blanton). I think that fully explains his lower-than-expected Coliseum line.
I’ve checked Cabrera’s hit locations at the White Sox and Angels park. It’s shorter in the power alleys at the Coliseum (367 feet to “388” feet), so he could pick up some homers in Oakland. I found that 7 of his Anaheim 2B’s could have been homers at the Coliseum, but only 1 of his Chicago 2B’s could have been a homer. Likewise, 3 of his Anaheim fly outs could have been homers at the Coliseum and 1 of his Chicago fly out could have been a homer at the Coliseum.
Career hit charts:
Angels 7 2B→HR (59 2B’s) 3 FO→HR (319 FO’s)
US Cel 1 2B→HR (19 2B’s) 1 FO→HR (138 FO’s)
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?playerID=111851&statType=1
I also checked his foul ball outs. I compared the Coliseum to where Cabrera played most: US Cellular and Angels. FWIW, his ground ball rate was a tad higher at the Coliseum (maybe Cabrera was consciously keeping it on the ground to avoid the huge Coliseum foul ball territory). When Cabrera did fly out at the Coliseum, a much higher rate of 15.2% of them were in foul territory.
Park… GO/FO GO/FO FoulOut/FO
Angels 256/319 0.80 25/319 .078
US Cel 124/138 0.90 16/138 .115
McAfee 44/46 0.96 7/46 .152
So, over 4 years in Anaheim and Chicago, 12 of Cabrera’s doubles and fly outs “could have” been homers at the Coliseum. That’s 3 a year. But to homer at the Coliseum, you have to elevate (and hit charts don’t tell me that), so I think 1 or 2 more homers is likely. Cabrera has averaged 8 homers per year, so he may have 9 or 10 homers next year. This is negligible. And probably fully countered by the higher number of foul outs. I think the normal park factor adjustments should be sufficient to adjust Cabrera’s stats.
.706 is my new projected OPS for Cabrera this year. I feel recent years are more indicative of expected performance, so I used 16% of 2005’s OPS, 22% of 2006, 28% of 2007, and 34% of 2008. I also adjusted for Park Factors using EQA’s PF (and yes, the Coliseum was a bit more of a hitter’s park than Anaheim in 2 of those years):
.706 = .674*.16*1.01 + .738*.22*1.01 + .742*.28*.977 + .705*.34*.960
I do not fully trust the projections of the experts. I think they often overemphasize last year’s performance (vs. the last 3-4 years performance). Often, last year could have been a down year due to a (possibly unpublicized) injury…or hating to show up for work since you are in Ozzie Guillen’s doghouse the whole year.
That said, Cabrera had a down year in 2005 (possibly explained by changing leagues) and in 2008 (Guillen’s doghouse?). But Cabrera’s career OPS is .721, so his .738 and .742 OPS in 2006 and 2007 probably just meant that he overachieved a bit. And he underachieved a bit in 2005 and 2008. I feel comfortable about my .706 OPS projection.
by BillyWannabeane on Mar 4, 2009 1:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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