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Initial Thoughts on the O-Cab Signing

Well, the inevitable finally happened. The team with the biggest need for a dependably starting-caliber shortstop finally signed a decent one. For $4 million, this is a good deal for the team. As I'm sure some of you have noticed from some of my recent posts, I was one of a handful of actual Bobby Crosby hopeless cheerleaders/apologists/believers on this site, and yet, even so, I'm happy and excited with this signing. O-Cab is an improvement over 2006-2008 Bobby Crosby in just about every aspect of the game of baseball, and he might just be enough of a net-win improver that he closes the projected gap between the A's and the Angels all by himself. Thus, this is good news.

The A's will lose their 2nd rock draft pick in the 2009 draft to the White Sox as compensation for O-Cab, but that isn't a huge deal. I'm not exactly sure where the A's would have picked in the 2nd round, but in any case, it would have been more like a 3rd rounder anyway due to the continued ballooning of the sandwich (supplemental 1st) round. And even so, the A's newfound willingness to go over-slot in the later rounds of the draft should allow the team to nab some promising players even without a 2nd round selection.

Some quick takes:

- O-Cab is best suited to bat in the bottom of the batting order. He doesn't have a great career OBP (though still better than Crobsy's) but he's a good baserunner and puts the ball in play a lot. I think he's best used in the 9-hole where he can act as a sort of "2nd leadoff hitter" type.

- Mark Ellis has yet to get medical clearance to play defense at Spring Training. I think having O-Cab around reinforces the bench quite a bit in the event that Mark cannot begin the season 100-percent, as Orlando had previously indicated earlier this off-season that he'd be willing to play some 2nd base.

- Fangraphs agrees that this is a good move for the A's. They think it adds one win to the A's over the course of this coming season, noting that O-Cab is not great offensively anymore, but that his defense is still likely to be above-average.

- Bobby Crosby's future is now quite murky. The A's are on the hook for his $5.5 million 2009 salary and they couldn't give him away earlier this off-season. Seeing as how any team could have (theoretically) signed O-Cab (a better player than Bobby) for as little as $4.1 million as recently as yesterday, it's pretty obvious that the shortstop market is dead. I'll predict that Bobby stays with the team as the primary middle infield backup and that he gets a fair amount of playing time, as he is probably still a better backup than Cliff Pennington or even Jack Hannahan at this point.

- The team is still in negotiations with both Nomar and Dennys Reyes. The addition of both would really solidify this team going forward, but in order for that to happen, the team would need to free up two spots on the 40-man roster as it is now currently full thanks to this latest move.

- Slusser just mentioned that O-Cab is expected to report to A's camp on Thursday...just in time for me to see him don the green and gold for the first time as I'll be at Phoenix Muni Wednesday through Friday! Whoo hoo!

Welcome back Hot Stove action!

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As mentioned in the O-Cab thread

There are expendable pieces on the 40 man roster should the A’s sign Nomar and/or Reyes. I’d guess Jeff Gray, Jack Hannahan and Ben Copeland are at the top of the Cut List should a move be necessary.

In case anyone’s interested, the A’s 2009 payroll now stands at approximately $57 million.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 1:59 PM PST reply actions  

ben copeland is as good as gone

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

i think Copeland would pass through waivers

and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chen did, too. He made it through the entire NL earlier this year, after all.

Some team would find a use for Gray. He’s got two options left, and teams always need a few relievers who can bounce back and forth during the year.

I think Gray wins this round of Roster Survivor.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

To my understanding...

if Ben Copeland is not on our 40 man roster he becomes Giants property again. Thus wasting our Rule 5 pick for this previous draft. That is unless we trade for him which probably wouldn’t require a lot to get done, but probably isn’t really worth exploring since we have a glut of outfielders.

by Zabat on Mar 2, 2009 10:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Hey, at least the A's would get $25K back

Of course, they could have not spent $50K on him in the first place. Or, like, drafted a player who is vaguely useful.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Jack never gets any respect...

Hannahan is better than at least 10 other guys on the 40 man roster. As the backup to an extremely injury prone player (Chavez), I can’t imagine he’d be on any shortlist of potential cuts.

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Unless, of course, the pickup is Nomar.

My sister would be sad to see Hanananananananan go. She thinks he’s cute.

by LoneStranger on Mar 2, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Then he wouldn't make the 25 man roster, but Chavez and Nomar would likely get hurt

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

If the A's sign Nomar he'd be the principle back-up at 3B

With Hannahan, what you see is what you get. Baisley still has some projection.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

2008 is what you get? Or is it 2007?

People seem to be judging Hannahan solely by his 2008 season, which is obviously a mistake. He projects to be miles better than Baisley (who I don’t see any projection in), and every metric rates Hannahan as a GG quality defensive player.

I see Nomar as backing up 3B and 1B—a platoon of him and Hannahan would be a nice fallback should Chavez go back to DL-land.

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions  

exactly

hannahan may not be a good hitter, but he is a better hitter than he was in 2008. and he plays great defense.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

but wasn't the difference between '07 and '08 just BABIP?

2007 – .278 BA/.356 BABIP
2008 – .218 BA/.286 BABIP

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 4:02 PM PST up reply actions  

that's a great argument for Hannahan....

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really

Given his skills, a .286 BABIP is a lot more sensible than a .356.

I mean, there’s some room for bounceback there, but I sure as hell wouldn’t hang my hat on Hannahan having an above-average BABIP.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

But you don't have to pick one

You can do the sensible thing and conclude he’s likely to be somewhere in between.

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Like maybe an average BABIP?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

.286

is a lot closer to league average than .356

by sslinger on Mar 2, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

And...?

Who cares which is closer—neither is our best guess at his true talent level. That’s just a meaningless way to criticize the guy.

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 4:32 PM PST up reply actions  

just because it's a criticism doesn't make it meaningless

anyway, league average is our best guess….and based on league average numbers, even a lucky Hannahan (circa 2007) ain’t that great. His defense is great, but you really don’t hold a roster spot for a 28 year old 3B who had trouble slugging .400 in the minors.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

it is not meaningless

tough to take you seriously when you say babip is meaningless

Cust is the new Jaha.

by johnjahafanclub on Mar 2, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

that's not what he said at all....

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Thing is, Hannahan's main issue is not BABIP related,

and that is his difficulty making contact. I see Hannahan as a solid hitter against soft-tossers who is in big trouble against pitchers who throw 90+ MPH. He shouldn’t be platooing L/R, he should be platooning Hard/Soft.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions  

true

it would be nice if Chavez’s shoulder only hurts when the A’s are facing Moyer or his ilk. Or it would be nice if they got Nomar, or if Chavez stayed healthy.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Platoo barada Nico

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."

by iglew on Mar 2, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

you didn't say the words right!!!

Prepare to be taken out by Nico’s boomstick…

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 3, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

ZOMG, really?

I would never have known that that was a possibility if you had not pointed it out. I must be some kind of idiot, or something.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

You've come a long way, baby

"There is a sense of tragic destiny associated with people who have large noses." --Bucky Wunderlick

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Mar 2, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions  

My usage of stupid internet memes has at least quadrupled since 2006 : /

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

This.

I switched Cabreras when your back was turned.

by Elvez on Mar 3, 2009 7:23 AM PST up reply actions  

That is AWESOME.

"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers

by baseballgirl on Mar 2, 2009 11:26 PM PST up reply actions  

He has a high ld%, I would expect it to be above average, and it's above average for his career...

Obviously, I wasn’t arguing he’s likely to put up a .356 babip, but the relatively pro-Hannahan people, such as myself, are only arguing that he’ll hit around his projection for this year, whereas a bunch of people think he’s going to repeat last year or else just want to whine about how he sucks and not give it more thought.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

The Bendix formula put his projected 2008 BABIP at .304

I won’t claim that’s the be-all and end-all of hitters’ BABIP, especially since I think it’s undergone some revisions since they published the spreadsheet that I’m looking at, but it’s a major data point.

Assuming the following, all estimated from fangraphs except the BABIP line:
BABIP: .304
K: 25 of PA
BB: 12 of PA
HR/FB: 7% of FB
FB: 41 of batted balls
ISO: .130

378 batted balls => 11 HR
367 BIP =>112 other hits

I get a projected line of .233/.325/.363… not exactly faboo.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions  

That line + good defense = good backup

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions  

That's basically a Mike Gallego hitting line

but Gallego could backup at 2B (excellent) and SS (good), not just 3B. Hannahan is unproven anywhere but 3B.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions  

He'd be a lot less valuable if our starting 3B wasn't going to get injured

and he’s worse than Gallego, but that is no crime.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 5:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think he's a worse hitter than Gallego necessarily

but that’s a bit like saying someone’s not a worse baserunner than Jack Cust.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

According to TotalZone and scouting reports

He was above average at 2b in the minors too. And he’s recently said that he’s willing to play SS too (most likely because he’s willing to make 400k a year). I think Gallego who hits a bit better is Hannahan’s upside to the A’s.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 2, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, according to his minor-league stats at baseball-reference.com

Hannahan has played 92 games at 2B and 1 at SS in the minors. That doesn’t seem like a lot of experience at 2B, and none at SS. And even if he’s a good 3B, that’s still a matter of moving the wrong way on the defensive spectrum in the majors.

I mean, he might be good, but if the A’s want him to backup SS and 2B they better give him a whole lot of innings at each position in Spring Training, and maybe even send him to Sacto for some more work afterwards. Learning two difficult positions with infrequent playing time in the majors is a big, big risk.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, I have no problem with that statement

I don’t think Hannahan is or should be first on the 40-man roster chopping block, for what it’s worth. I do think he’s a significantly worse backup option than Nomar, however

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I definitely agree with that, especially because it's a huge difference as backup 1B

but I don’t think he should be cut from the 40 man roster under any circumstances as long as Chavez is the primary 3B, and they haven’t found someone better to back up (who won’t get hurt like Nomar).

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions  

that's... exactly the position of the pro-hannahan people

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Are we so sure Nomar will get hurt

if he is primarily a backup INF and pinch hitter? That’s a lot different than starting 80-100 games.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:24 PM PST up reply actions  

we're not sure nomar or chavez will get injured

but the probability is great enough that hannahan should be kept around in AAA just in case.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I can't see ANY reason not to keep Hannahan at AAA

since he has an option left. Would would the downside be (other than him blocking the 7 Chase Headleys the A’s have who are beating down the door in Sacramento)?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions  

If I'm reading this discussion properly

the downside is that someone else must be cut from the 40-man instead.

But I think just about everyone agrees there are at least one or two candidates in line before Jack, if not more.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers."

by iglew on Mar 2, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm one of them, relatively speaking

I just don’t think he’s going to have a BABIP in the .320s or higher…

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

PECOTA projects his OPS to be about 50 points higher.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Its not a matter of disrespect

I agree with xbhaskarx that Hannahan can hit better then he showed in 2008. The problem is I don’t see him in a back-up role in Oakland if Nomar gets signed.

And if I’m counting right, Hannahan is out of options so he needs to be on the 25 man roster or the A’s risk losing him. If he gets placed on waivers I think he gets picked up by another team for all the reasons you just listed.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions  

he has one left

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I was counting 2005 but...

There is a chance the Tigers didn’t bother to put Hannahan on the 40 man roster the first year it was necessary to protect him. If he didn’t make Detroit’s 40 man until 2006 then he still has an option.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I believe he actually still has 2 option years left

His contract was purchased in 2006, and he was then optioned down, using one. In late 2006, he was outrighted to the Tigers minors. In 2007, he was traded to Oakland and went straight onto the 25-man roster. He’s never been optioned down since.

He’d have to clear optional waivers if the A’s sent him down after May or so, but from what SuSlu tells us no one ever gets claimed on those. To all practical purposes, he still has 2 options left.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Does outrighting a guy to the minors re-set the options?

1st option in 2006.

2nd option in 2007. He played 101 games for Toledo.

No option in 2008.

So 1 option remaining.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't you have to clear waivers before getting outrighted?

That would seem like a legit basis for not using up an option year.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought Detroit purchased his contract again in 2007

But they didn’t.

I really wish Cots would keep track of options as well as contract info.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, that guy needs to pull his weight.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Absolutely!

On a serious note, it would be good to have a single site that kept track of transaction info such as we’ve been discussing.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions  

No option used in 2007

He spent the entire season either a. not on the 40-man roster, or b. on the 25-man roster.

Options are used when a player is both a. on the 40-man and b. not on the 25-man. At no point in 2007 did he fulfill both of those conditions.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

He didn't make the 2007 40 man for Detroit?

Where are you getting your transaction info?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

i get mine from the mlb.com site

it’s an arduous process. Go to thebaseballcube to find out which years are in question, then go month-by-month on the team transactions page for those seasons in question to determine if and when a player’s contract was purchased, and if and when he was sent down again. That way you can look out for the 20 days loophole, etc.

That’s the only way to be even at least reasonably sure, short of getting confirmation from SuSlu or Urban, which I seek to do anytime we’re in contact with them. Urban has confirmed Hanny has at least one option left.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Meanwhile... forgo any hope at having a sex life

AN needs interns to handle that kind of monotonous work.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 9:54 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Mar 2, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed, on both counts

Mrs. Jeans often chafes at my AN time. Which, in turn, leaves me, uh…chafing, too.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 3, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

word on the street is he has an option left.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Hannahan as a gold glove defensive player?

he doesn’t have the bat for that

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Mar 4, 2009 3:17 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

no way hannahan is removed from the 40 man roster even if the a’s sign nomar.
hannahan will go to AAA, waiting for a chavy / nomar injury.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

yep

Sacramento’s team is going to be, once again, incredibly good.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Hannahan was drafted in 2001

Doesn’t that mean he used his first option in 2005, which means he’d be out of options in 2009.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Would you prefer to see

Yung Chi Chen or Eric Patterson get it in the neck instead or Hannahan?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Damn...

“instead of Hannahan?”

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

i know nothing about chen, so him.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions  

OK

I hereby declare Jeff Gray, Yung Chi Chen and Ben Copeland at the top of the Cut List should a move need to happen.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

but only two roster spots are needed.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 6:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Well yeah... I'm offering a variety of options

Adding options is the only way to try and hold baseline prices in this economy.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions  

The interesting thing to me

Is that the hot stove isn’t done yet. The A’s could theoretically still sign a couple more players at least. Maybe Dennys Reyes and even someone like Mark Mulder.

I was just writing a post about this, so I’m glad you beat me to it Taj. I do look forward to hopefully seeing Ellis and Cabrera turn the double play. I think those two could be something special. And there’s nothing like a cheap, one-year deal to motivate a guy to have a great year. I mean the A’s have three guys on the roster now, Cabrera, Holliday and Giambi (if G wants to keep playing beyond this year) who could be playing for a bigger payday in the future. Cabrera resisted the A’s for as long as he could. I don’t necessarily like giving up a draft pick, but at least the A’s I think had adequately, although not necessarily terribly impressively filled a hole.

It should be a good mix this year of really young and upcoming talent with seasoned vets who have been battle tested. I’m really liking the way the offense is coming together for the most part.

I think this could be a better year than what most baseball fans outside of the East Bay might think as long as the injury-prone remain relatively healthy and don’t miss really long stretches.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 2, 2009 1:59 PM PST reply actions  

mulder would be a minor league deal

i’m not sure the a’s should even bother, considering they already have jerome, edgar, and one of outman/giogon, plus MACS.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm strangely sentimental on Mulder

If all he asks for is a basic AAA-level minor league deal (with a major league bonus should he earn a roster spot) than I say sign him and give him a chance to re-build his career.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Me too - and I wouldn't count out Mulder

coming back as an awfully good lefty-reliever. Take him on a minor league deal and see what he has left in his arm.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions  

i have no problem with that

i just don’t think it matters one way or the other.
and it certainly doesn’t matter for the 25 man roster and most likely not even for the 40 man roster.
so basically it’s barely worth discussing.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree

I would like the A’s to offer Mulder a minor league deal and see what happens.

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

As in

Let’s hang out in robes and see what develops?

Can monkey care be a positive experience? Yes, but only if you are committed, well-prepared, and well-informed ahead of time. To what degree is this possible? What if monkey care is harder than you thought it would be? --Pet Monkey: A Reality Check

by Leopold Bloom on Mar 2, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

That's what I was thinking

Wait, is this thing on?

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Mar 2, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Noooooooooo

I don’t want to look like a dorky monk at a baseball game!

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Mar 2, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I actually find the thought of attending a baseball game dressed like a monk strangely amusing

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I actually did

Back in 2001 (I think) I got talked into shaving my head into a monk cut for a RenFaire in Gilroy, and I went to one of the playoffs games vs. the Yankees the next day, and sat out in right field bleachers.

by zealotus on Mar 2, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions  

no kidding!

before I got my Snuggie, I couldn’t even change the channel, let alone answer my phone! My hands used to be under the blanket, rendering them completely useless. Not any more….thanks Snuggie!

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm still pissed that the Snuggie ripped off the Slanket.

that the Snuggie ripped off the Slanket. Though maybe the Slanket folks just rebranded as the Snugge. I like Slanket better, but I’d been intrigued by the ads in SkyMall for a while.

The Snuggie pub crawl could perhaps morph into a bizarre promotion at the Coliseum…

"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King

by batgirl on Mar 2, 2009 7:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd like to see how he's throwing first

Sure, could be a low-risk move, but it could also be low-reward. And he could be taking innings away from guys the A’s are trying to develop for more than just nostalgic purposes.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

See? The signing just paid for itself.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions  

totally agree

I’d actually love to see Mulder back if he’s healthy.

"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King

by batgirl on Mar 2, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Slightly OT

but I’m wondering what high draft-pick signing bonuses and contracts will look like given the collapse in FA salaries this year.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions  

well he likes green

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions  

Why does every Angels fan

look like that

Clear its radiance shine...

by ATarHeel on Mar 2, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Like What?

Douchebags?

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Mar 2, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

QOTM

Can monkey care be a positive experience? Yes, but only if you are committed, well-prepared, and well-informed ahead of time. To what degree is this possible? What if monkey care is harder than you thought it would be? --Pet Monkey: A Reality Check

by Leopold Bloom on Mar 2, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

The shorter dude looks like the Fullerton equivalent of Dale Gribble

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

they're all going for "The Scioscia"

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Remind me neveer to walk around

In the A’s equivalent of those two guys get up.

myspace music

by jeffro on Mar 2, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

there's no A's equivalent of that

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh yeah?

Those guys are at every baseball game everywhere.

The Dodgers-ChiSox game on MLB yesterday had some good stereotypical midwestern b’ball fans: Muscle shirt, sunburn, mustache, stuffing their faces with a pile of condiments hiding a hot dog in the middle.

by Mark H on Mar 2, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

A's fans are very attractive people who have unimpeachable style

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, there's me

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Mar 2, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

i have seen

these two guys in Concord. Well, at least their A’s cousins.

myspace music

by jeffro on Mar 4, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Why are they posing with Usher?

I thought this was about oCab?

I miss Eric Plunk

by chuckcheeze on Mar 2, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I would like to know

If anyone has an article or any information about Cabrera being a bad locker room personality.

I remember NSJ saying that he was a problem. If anyone has any info I’d love to see it

Clear its radiance shine...

by ATarHeel on Mar 2, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions  

he'll definitely

be pissed off after being forced to come to the A’s! lol

I miss Eric Plunk

by chuckcheeze on Mar 2, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

You have the info right there: people don't like him for reasons that are not entirely clear

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

A's SS of the future...

Ivan DeJeus Jr. broke his leg on a play at-the-plate and will probably miss the entire season

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Mar 2, 2009 2:25 PM PST reply actions  

1) are you going to post this in every thread?
2) he’s not on the a’s, chances are he will never be on the a’s
3) are you going to misspell dejesus every time you post this?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions  

it was a cut n' paste...

slow your roll, we’re all friends here. We’ve had a lot of converstion about DE JESUS (how the A’s should trade for him) on this site, I didn’t realize you would be so upset that I posted it on 2 threads.

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Mar 2, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Hate to hear that news.

I doubt he’d end up with the A’s either way, but i’ve been interested to see what kind of player he turns into at the major league level. Too bad.

by JPShark on Mar 2, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions  

No kidding - what a shame when talented young guys get major injuries

(and they’re not on the Yankees or Angels).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

That was quick

Your team is your child...You love it no matter what.

by TheRaiderWay on Mar 2, 2009 2:35 PM PST reply actions  

he looks better

with the mini-fro

I miss Eric Plunk

by chuckcheeze on Mar 2, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

photoshop is quick

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

At least BB is throwing some money out there this season

Holliday, Cabrera, Giambi – we haven’t seen spending like this in a while.

The best part is we don’t have to think about automatic ground outs 3-4 times per game with Crosby out.

I miss Eric Plunk

by chuckcheeze on Mar 2, 2009 2:42 PM PST reply actions  

Um, just so you know

Cabrera isn’t that much better at the plate than Crosby is. I’m sure there will be plenty of groundouts still.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

But he gets a lot more RBIs

then Crosby, which will go a long way. AND he’s fast, so a ground ball might be a hit instead of an out.

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Shakes head

Decides to leave it alone

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Mar 2, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Depends what you mean by "much better"

OPS+ over the past 4 years:
Cabrera: 88
Crosby: 80

3 years
Cabrera: 90
Crosby: 71

2 years
Cabrera: 89
Crosby: 73

Last year
Cabrera: 84
Crosby: 76

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

So you could say that they would be, potentially, pretty similar hitters this year?

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Potentially, sure

I’d expect Cabrera to be 5-10 runs better than Crosby with the bat.

by Danny on Mar 2, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions  

So about 10 points of OPS+, which is about 40 points of OPS, which is about 8 runs over a full season.
And with strikeout and walk rates that are both lower than Crosby’s, there will be no shortage of groundouts.

black dirt live again

by andeux on Mar 2, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I like Orlando Cabrera

he seems very dedicated to winning and has confidence, two things Crosby lacks. This season is getting better all the time!

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 3:01 PM PST reply actions  

There are many things that Crosby is not particularly good at

But questioning his “dedicat[ion] to winning” is silly. I certainly don’t know Bobby Crosby on a personal level and I assume that you probably do not either.

He might not be very good at contributing to the success of this team, but accusing him of not wanting to seems baseless.

by SkipT on Mar 2, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think Crosby wants to learn

He seems to do the same dumb thing over and over again as if saying “this is just how I am!” His act just got old. Someone who isn’t so great and refuses to learn or change just doesn’t appear to, in my opinion, have much desire to win. That’s all I was saying.

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions  

well what you're saying is nonsense

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, that's a very effective comment!

How is it nonsense? Tell me of one situation when Crosby listened to coaches or changed his stance at the plate? He should have been shipped off long ago, and this is his final chance to adjust his approach. I hope for his sake he doesn’t blow it, or it’s Adam Piattsville for him!

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

just this offseason

Crosby worked with McGwire and Holliday on his stance at the plate. That’s not my idea of an unwillingness to learn.

More to the point, however, is that you have no idea about any coaching dialogue between Crosby and the A’s.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 2, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmm...

… he finally started working on his offense the year before his contract expires? Isn’t that convenient.

Indeed, Bobby C has shown a a willingness to learn this offseason (when he has a financial incentive to do so). Before that, he hadn’t worked on shit, other than (1) complaining about the A’s training staff (a justified complaint given their record over the last 2-3 years) and (2) digging a large hole in the left-handed hitter’s batters box while swinging at sliders in the dirt.

In other words, you can give the “Bobby Crosby’s willing to learn” argument a rest. The guy spent the last three years playing like absolute garbage; I have no sympathy for his current predicament (making $5.25 million to sit on the bench).

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Great

So he has no idea what he’s doing.

Another strike against him.

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Dude...

… I liked Bobby Crosby when he first got called up. I was on board with letting Tejada walk, and going with a left-side of Chavez and Crosby. And then… Crosby turned into an absolutely terrible MLB player. And so… I have given up on him.

It’s not a question of whether I ever liked Bobby Crosby. It’s a question of looking at the facts, and realizing that Bobby Crosby is not the A’s SS of the future… He’s 29 years old and he stinks. Those are facts.

The fact is, Bobby probably got overrated based on his one really good year in the minors. No more than four years ago, Baseball Prospectus called him a future MVP candidate. Whether it was the injuries that derailed his development, or whether he simply wasn’t ever that good, we’ll probably never know…

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

This is Baseball Prospectus on Bobby Crosby in 2005

“There was some concern that, at 6’3”, Crosby might be too tall to comfortably handle short, but he turned out to be one of the best in the league in his Rookie of the Year campaign. He has quick hands and feet, positions himself well, and sports a strong arm that allows him to set up deeper than most. The .239 batting average was an outlier, and Crosby should continue to improve his power and plate judgment as he progresses. A championship-caliber player about to happen."

A championship caliber player about to happen? … oops!! That ranks right up there with putting Josh Phelps on the cover of the book a few years back. Even BP can miss badly sometimes.

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

you are correct

BP did predict bigger things for Crosby, and whether it was injuries, being overrated, or a combination, he just hasn’t worked out.

I was really only taking issue with the comment the Crosby isn’t dedicated to winning.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 3, 2009 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Please

He could never do anything right even for the people who liked him!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Mar 2, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

theblackpearl is right about Crosby changing his stance last year

Every single person on AN mentioned it over and over at the start of the 08 season — he basically looked like he was emulating Kendall, slapping everything to RF, and there was endless debate for a month over whether he should be experimenting in AAA or in Oakland.

Now, the adjustments didn’t work. But A’sfansince1970 is claiming that Crosby “isn’t dedicated to winning” and when challenged s/he demanded, “Tell me of one situation when Crosby listened to coaches or changed his stance at the plate?”

So here’s the answer: last year. He completely changed his stance and approach at the plate.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:30 PM PST up reply actions  

he did, it was quite obvious

but as the season wore on he stood farther and farther away from the plate. By the end of the season he was facing the pitcher with his head a bit more than earlier years, but otherwise looked pretty much like he had before.

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but I think that's because what he tried didn't work

Or, maybe he didn’t give it enough time. Who knows?

I think that’s probably why players are so reluctant to make major overhauls in this way. If it doesn’t immediately improve things, they’re left wondering whether they should stick with it until it clicks, or dump it because it’s not working and go back to what’s familiar (and, in Crosby’s case, what’s familiar was responsible for being a 1st rounder and ROY — his new stance never got him anything).

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

agreed

in earlier years he had said that he hesitated to change things that had given him success as he was coming up through the minors.

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I feel bad for the guy

Look, we’ve all complained about Crosby, although I was one of his defenders at the start of last season. But I don’t have any reason to think he’s a bad guy, on or off the field; it’s not his fault that he’s injury-prone; and this is his dream, what he’s wanted to do for as long as he can remember, and after a promising start, and feeling like it was right there for him, it’s all falling apart for him.

At least his GM can probably relate (except for the part about having any success at all in the majors).

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree, I don't question his desire

I still remember during 2007 fanfest when a fan asked him quite bluntly about his lack of production. while many booed the fan who asked him Crosby said, “No, let me answer him. It’s a fair criticism.” and he proceeded to discuss his disappointment with himself, and his commitment to work on his game and get better.

Also, in 2008 you couldn’t really call him injury-prone. He just couldn’t stay away from that long loopy swing, far away from the plate stance. He has not been able to break those bad habits. Will his work with McGwire finally do the trick? Who knows? But evidently the A’s aren’t waiting around to see.

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2009 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, injuries didn't do him in last year

although all his time on the DL since his ROY campaign might be partly (largely?) responsible for his failure to develop. How could he not wonder how different things would be if he hadn’t messed up his ankle sliding into Ramon Hernandez in Baltimore? Or if the A’s had diagnosed his back problem earlier?

As to the Fanfest story…you know, it’s kind of a cliché to say that sports teaches us how to handle failure and disappointment, as much as it teaches us to be winners. But we usually think of high school or college kids learning that lesson, not 29-year-old professionals. He could still turn it around and become a productive player, I suppose, and he could of course have a very happy life doing something else in baseball (as Beane has done) or away from baseball, for that matter. But there’s no getting around the fact that, so far, his baseball career has been an enormously frustrating disappointment, and it’s unlikely to turn around.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think it's that Crosby lacks desire

or that he has never tried to make adjustments. I think it’s that he appears incapable of making, and sustaining, any effective adjustments over time – which means he may be a great guy but he’ll probably never be a good player.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

And the nail has been hit squarely on the head...

… Bobby Crosby may be a good guy, he may have the desire to be a great baseball player, and he may even be willing to make adjustments to get better, but if that’s all that it took to be the A’s starting shortstop, then I’d be down in Arizona right now getting ready for my game tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, the ability to actually sustain success is also necessary; whether because of injuries or plain old lack of talent, Bobby C has not shown the ability to sustain success…

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Mar 2, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I seem to remember him starting the season with a new stance...

Indeed, he was even standing close to the plate for a while, with a really wide, low stance. But then he slowly crept away from the plate and eventually wound up back to the same old swing he had before.

I switched Cabreras when your back was turned.

by Elvez on Mar 2, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

didn't Crosby start backing off the plate again

after getting hit by a pitch?

I agree that Crosby isn’t very good at baseball (compared to other players) but I don’t question his desire and I don’t hate him as a person.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Mar 2, 2009 10:51 PM PST up reply actions  

This is how I recall it too.

When the season started, he was much closer to the plate and hitting the ball with authority. He absolutely murdered a ball to win a game played in freezing temperatures at Cleveland. For whatever reason, he moved back off the plate again and resumed his tiresome lunges at pitches on the outside part of the plate. Why the coaches let that happen, I’ll never figure out.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Mar 3, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think that's the case at all

Bobby has altered his swing, tried to change his stance and approach. He obviously wants to get better. I think it’s just a matter of him maybe not having the ability to be a productive major league player more than him not WANTING it.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 2, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

True, but that is new.

IIRC there have been quite a few instances in the past where, at least based on quotes he’s given, he’s seemed completely unwilling to modify his approach.

The hitting-with-McGwire thing was encouraging to me for exactly that reason; not so much “maybe McGwire taught him how to hit” but more “maybe Crosby’s finally evaluating himself and making some adjustments.” But on the flip side of that, there’s been this fear of “how long till he reverts to Crosby-of-old and gets stuck in the same rut again” because of his past (perceived) behavior.

I still don’t think this speaks to a desire to win, more just a mental ability to make adjustments.

by oblique on Mar 2, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Dave Cameron says its far better than I can
I hate the judging of other peoples motivations, and the assumptions about their character that go along with those judgments. Just as we reject the "Ichiro is selfish because he doesn’t dive" rhetoric, I also reject the "Baker is intentionally creating stories in order to further his agenda" stuff. You cannot judge the motives of another person, whether it’s a player, a beat writer, or me. Stop trying.

http://ussmariner.com/2009/02/17/geoff-baker-the-media-and-judging-motives

by SkipT on Mar 2, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Totally Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very Happy. Pumped my fist after I saw this. Crosby must be like “Damn, thought I had it.” And then proceed to mope and complain for the rest of the year, telling everyone that will listen how “I just need an opportunity and I will show the A’s what I can do.” Hopefully he accepts his role because I think he and the A’s are stuck with each other this year.

by jasonlbe on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM PST reply actions  

Maybe a mentoring idea again?

Have OCab teach Crosby how to be a good SS and effective hitter with swagger?

"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit

by A'sfansince1970 on Mar 2, 2009 3:28 PM PST reply actions  

hasn't McGwire

been doing that this offseason? well at least the effective hitter with swagger part

and bobby is so different physically than o-cab i can’t imagine they approach the position the same way.

i’m very upset the A’s signed o-cab and didn’t give their ROY one more chance now that he has some lineup protection

MJP - Go A's - give Bobby one more year

by IBSlater on Mar 2, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

+6548756297840469870986727865789326409864783925689769

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions  

unless your name is andre ethier

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Mar 2, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Good post Taj. My thoughts:

Other positive considerations for the A’s:

*The A’s will probably finish with one of the 15 best records in baseball this year. So, this was the year to invest in a Type A free agent, when it wouldn’t cost a first-rounder. Next offseason, sure, the A’s might re-sign O-Cab, or Holliday, or Duke…but you won’t see them spring for a Type A FA from another team if their pick isn’t protected. And I don’t think it will be protected next year. They are going to have at least a pretty good season.

*Next year, the team will have the flexibility to offer Cabrera arbitration, if a better shortstop replacement hasn’t presented itself internally (which is very likely, unfortunately). That means they have one more option at starting shortstop for the 2010 season – never a bad thing.

*If another team suffers a shortstop injury this spring and Bobby Crosby magically develops trade value, he may garner the equivalent value of the second-round pick (approximately #60-63) in return via trade.

*On that note, somebody asked up in the thread where the A’s second-round pick would’ve been. As of today – after the Cabrera signing – it would be exactly #60 overall. When Manny signs, it will be #61 overall. If a few other type B FA’s (like Reyes) sign major league deals, it will be around 62-63 overall, since those players garner compensatory draft picks in the sandwich round for the teams that lost them.

The #60 overall pick just isn’t that big of a deal. It means the A’s don’t have a pick between #13 overall and #91, but heck, maybe it means they’ll splurge on an over-slot talent again somewhere.

*If Mark Ellis winds up on the shelf for an extended period of time, the A’s still have two starting middle infielders to open the season. In this scenario, I’d imagine Cabrera would be the one who shifted over to 2b, even though he’s the better defender.

*Having Crosby as the team’s backup MIF for the time being is a slight upgrade over Pennington/Petit, even if we’re only talking 1/2 a win. Perhaps more importantly, it allows the team to start Pennington and Petit in Sacramento so that they can continue to get daily at-bats. It’s still possible one of that duo will be the team’s opening-day 2010 shortstop.

*O-Cab still has a very good chance of being a Type A again next season, due to the dearth of good American League shortstops.

So, unless there was some special language about promising to not offer him arbitration next offseason (which certainly could’ve happened), here’s the enviable position the A’s could find themselves in next offseason:

Cabrera is a Type A again, which is a win-win for the A’s: if they want him back and the feeling is mutual, they simply offer him arbitration, and his figure is based partially on this year’s low salary of $4M; or, they offer him, he declines, and his market value is again depressed by the Type A noose around his neck. Or, best case scenario, another team signs him and the A’s get two draft picks in the ’10 draft themselves.

The deeper I’ve looked at this, the more I’ve liked it.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 3:43 PM PST reply actions  

If Manny signs with the Dodgers, which everyone seems to expect, it will still be #60

Don’t know how many other unsigned compensation-worthy players there are. Each of them would knock it down by another slot.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

that's the second time I made that mistake, thanks Paul

After Manny signs, we’re looking at only Type B’s Reyes, GruzielaniekIdlfkl (sp), and Paul Byrd remaining among compensated FAs, I believe (since no one will sign Sheets).

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Byrd's sitting out the first half, like Sheets (although Byrd's doing it voluntarily)

so the pick will probably be #62, maybe #61. Someone is going to sign Reyes, but I could see Grudz hanging it up at this point. Although he’s certainly worth a one-year deal for somebody.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Wonder what Byrd will do with all that free time

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, you know what they say about idle hands

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

GruzielaniekIdlfkl (sp)

Actually, I think you got that one exactly right.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions  

On Pennington and Petit

Assuming neither makes the A’s out of Spring Training (injuries could change that, of course…), I’m really curious about what the A’s will do with them.

Billy seems not to like Petit’s game for some reason. That would make one expect to see Pennington as the starting SS at Sacto. But the A’s also seem to see Pennington’s role as a sort of Mike Gallego II — excellent defensive backup IF, who’s adequate offensively (we hope). In that case, I’d expect them to want Pennington to play at 2B and 3B as well as SS, to practice playing that role in AAA. Which would mean Petit could be the main SS for the Rivercats (who, I think I’ve mentioned before, should really be called the Solons).

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Mar 2, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Well done Billy (reposted from A's Sign O-Cab thread)!

Over the last 3 years, Crosby has been the 42nd, 47th, and 39th best offensive SS according to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Cabrera has been the 16th, 10th, and 13th best offensive SS. While Crosby has put up numbers worthy of a mediocre backup SS, Cabrera has been an above average starting SS. Over the last 3 years, he has been the 10th best offensive SS…and his 2-time Gold Glove defense may move him up a notch or 2 in overall value:

Average VORP for SS over 3 years
———————————————-
75.0 Hanley Ramirez
57.1 Derek Jeter
56.0 Jose Reyes
51.6 Jimmy Rollins
45.4 Carlos Guillen
39.0 Miguel Tejada
37.4 Michael Young
32.4 Edgar Renteria
27.7 Rafael Furcal
27.1 Orlando Cabrera
25.3 Jhonny Peralta
       …30 other SS…
-3.8 Bobby Crosby
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=314858
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204674
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=101087

Cabrera over Crosby is a huge improvement at SS for us. FWIW, Cabrera was ranked the highest of all of our free agent signings (until we sign Manny :) ):
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-freeagenttracker111008
4) Matt Holliday, OF (if Matt was a free agent, I’d put him 4th)
26) Orlando Cabrera, SS
31) Jason Giambi, DH
49) Russ Springer, RP
63) Dennys Reyes, RP (hopefully)
64) Nomar Garciaparra, UT (hopefully)

…so the A’s could wind up with 5 of the top 64 free agents this year…while the Angels have a net loss of 2 of the top 32 free agents (Teixeira, K-Rod, Garland, Anderson, but they add Abreu and Fuentes). I’m liking our chances more and more in the AL West.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 2, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions  

Here's what I like about our position players

There is a decent chance, given natural progression, that the A’s will be better at C;

One way or another, they will almost certainly be better at 1B;

If— big if— Ellis is healthy they will be better at 2B, but probably not worse in any event;

They will unquestionably be better at SS and 3B;

They will be better in LF

They could— a la catcher— be better in CF

They should be better in RF

About the same at DH.

I see no regression, and at least 5, probably 6-7, and possibly all 9 positions where there will be improvement.

by windyfelix on Mar 2, 2009 3:45 PM PST reply actions  

And the bench could be better, too, if they sign Nomar

and have Crosby as a backup.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Regardless of what happens with Crosby or Cabrera

this team just got that much deeper…which is never a bad thing. I see this move as more of “added insurance for injuries” more than I see it as Cabrera replacing Crosby straight up.

Sure makes spring training a hell of lot more interesting, though.

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Mar 2, 2009 4:40 PM PST reply actions  

Crosby has said he's never played any position other than SS

since turning pro. Cabrera does have some pro experience at 2B. Since Ellis is coming off of surgery, I imagine he won’t be starting every day at 2B in the early part of the season….so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Crosby at SS and Cabrera at 2B sometimes.

by OaklandSi on Mar 2, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Is it a bad thing

that I like this move simply because I can now officially be excited about our chances this year? Of course, I do think this is a good deal as well (esp in light of NSJ’s comment/post), but as a baseball fan, this will make at least the first half fun. Hopefully I won’t feel hopeless after we give up a run or two, unlike last year.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Mar 2, 2009 4:54 PM PST reply actions  

I DONT GET IT

Why are we going to pay croz 5.5 mil to sit on the bench. We are paying o. cab less but also giving up a F-ing draft pick. Is he really that much better than crosby for that price.

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Mar 2, 2009 5:30 PM PST reply actions  

As noted, second round draft pick. Almost meaningless when the A's stockpile those things.

And there’s nothing I’ve seen that says Crosby is going to stay here or not yet.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Mar 2, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions  

The draft pick isn't that big a deal

It’s kind of interesting how much people seem to care about picks now. In the past, they weren’t thought of that much (though obviously thought of higher by fans of small market teams like ours). Now we sign a new SS and everyone is questioning the merits of losing the pick. Draft picks are important if not crucial to a small market team. But the baseball draft is not like the basketball or football draft. Players on average are so far away from the majors that we can’t properly evaluate all of them.

First round picks are the only picks that we see an abundance of players who became above average. After the first round, busts are very common and almost as common are success stories like Rich Harden or Tim Hudson in the later rounds. Then there are the holdouts, the overslot bonus babies who can be good prospects because it takes money to lure them away from college or from football or from college football. Truth is the second round pick is a marginal asset, something which costs a bit of money but is only a bit more than a lottery ticket.

That second round pick can almost certainly be regained by trading Crosby and eating a million or two (which also happens to be a second round pick’s price tag). And that’s not even considering Cabrera could get us a 1st round pick and a supplemental next year (Hope the Astros finish with the 16th best record and don’t bring back Tejada). Point is there’s no Stephen Strasburg at number 60 in the draft and Cabrera will almost certainly not hurt the team.

As for the deal as a whole, it’s not that big an upgrade unless you feel really strongly about UZR as a defensive stat. Cabrera is probably a small upgrade but a known small upgrade. Crosby’s standard deviation on projected production is much much larger than OCab. We know what we’re getting. There’s a couple of small reasons to not like the signing but a whole bevy of reasons to like it (see NSJ’s post).

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 2, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

thought it was a first rounder

boy is my face red

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Mar 2, 2009 6:27 PM PST up reply actions  

A's draft picks last 3 years AROUND the 60th pick

2008 #58 Tyson Ross
2007 #59 Corey Brown
2006 #66 Trevor Cahill

by calas on Mar 2, 2009 8:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The A's are good drafters

But that could very easily be one good pitcher and two flame outs. In fact, that could be the most likely outcome. I’m not saying that there are no good players around 60 in the draft. But the list of guys who flame out there is larger than those who become Kurt Suzuki. That spot is not worthless but it’s worth giving up (assuming the A’s couldn’t get the CWS to do a sign and trade for a prospect less valuable than a second round pick) if one thinks it improves the big league team and said big league team is close to the playoffs.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 2, 2009 8:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

… not to mention, you’re probably just as likely to find a stud with the 150th-pick as you are with the 60th-pick.

Once you get past the first 10-20 picks of the draft (maximum), there are very few “sure things” (and even in the top 10-20, the “sure things” are few and far between). We’ll still get about 50 draft picks next year; I’m not too worried about the lost second-round pick.

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

By that logic, the A's should be happy to give up their first-round pick instead

since their recent first-rounders have included Brad Sullivan, Brian Snyder, Richie Robnett, Cliff Pennington, and Landon Powell.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

They should certainly save $25,000 and skip the Rule 5 draft!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

or just give that 25K to me.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

i think it was $100k in the case of ryan goleski.
i remember when they got the #1 pick, numerous sources speculated they wanted soria. < sob >

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I would have settled for Hamilton

though Soria would have been nice as well.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Mar 3, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions  

When I saw the ticker on ESPN announce the Cabrera signing

I accidentally hit my friend in the eye via a involuntary arm movement. He didn’t get mad considering he was over my shoulder, exclaiming the exact same thing I did. “Huh, 4 million dollars for a pretty good Shortstop? Whaaat?”

[The reason] Giambi hurts a team defensively is that he has the range of a sedated sea turtle who is trapped on land under Joe Blanton, only not quite as good. -Nico

by Morgasm on Mar 2, 2009 6:23 PM PST reply actions  

I don't like "O-Cab"; it sounds ridiculous.

We can do better. For the time being “Cabrera” is better.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 6:32 PM PST reply actions  

If I could post images...

This is where the “O RLY?” owl would be.

And this is where an image of Lando Calrissian would be.

by Rocktopus on Mar 2, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions  

It's decided then, we'll call him Lando Calrissian

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Great.

Now photoshop a surprised looking Orlando Cabrera and voila! Nickname and associated image complete!

by Rocktopus on Mar 2, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

man that was a stupid hat

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Mar 2, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Thou shalt NOT hate on the powder blue jerseys.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions  

when I was a kid

I couldn’t even tell what was on it. I thought it was a JB

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Mar 3, 2009 5:44 AM PST up reply actions  

elb!

I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.

by franks a lot on Mar 3, 2009 6:00 AM PST up reply actions  

How about "Fidel"?

Or Magical Realism?

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Mar 2, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Let's settle on "Comrade" and call it done

"There is a sense of tragic destiny associated with people who have large noses." --Bucky Wunderlick

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Mar 2, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I like that

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 7:36 PM PST up reply actions  

although it's bad for the A's colors

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Just glad to see this go our way.

This is the year that we have Holliday and we need to go all out. I do agree with PT that there isn’t a chance in HELL that we keep Holliday past this year…so I hope that Beane goes all out to get the best of what’s left. (That we can reasonably afford, of course).

by IM4Oakgal on Mar 2, 2009 7:28 PM PST reply actions  

Starting to believe!

Finally benching or getting rid of Crosby, shows me this team might actually be going for it this year.
No more or at least very little of Crosby! I do the dance of joy!

by fansince1980 on Mar 2, 2009 8:08 PM PST reply actions  

I'll read through everything, but my first thoughts

Fangraphs agrees with me about Cabrera basically being only a win better than Crosby. And I think that’s if Cabrera doesn’t regress at all and Crosby is just as bad as his 2008 (meaning his oddly poor defense in 2008 wasn’t a fluke). I expect Cabrera is only about a half-win upgrade over Crosby when all is said and done.

Kind of a whatever move to me. The money was either going to Cabrera or it wasn’t being spent. May as well spend it.

by thejd44 on Mar 2, 2009 8:09 PM PST reply actions  

The one win assumes Cabrera regressing and Crosby improving (on offense)

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

the fangraphs analysis based on chone was

He’ll be hurt by the Coliseum, but he probably wasn’t really helped at all by playing in Chicago. We’ll see if he opses .650 this year….

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I can get behind not trusting Cameron....

anyway the 6 runs was based on park adjusted chone numbers. chone has cabrera at .274/.332/.373 in a neutral park, and .266/.323/.360 in Oakland (way off his last few years), which is 6 runs better than the chone projection for Crosby either way.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 9:41 PM PST up reply actions  

i wouldn't trust cameron even if he used the right numbers

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

That's half right.

Cabrera’s too old to be getting any better.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Mar 2, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't necessarily think Crosby will hit better

But I don’t see why his fielding won’t return to normal. He hasn’t suffered a major leg injury that should permanently sap him of his ability.

by thejd44 on Mar 2, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Why Cabrera? They could have given some of it to me.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Fangraphs mistakes

Fangraphs said Crosby was a replacement level player. Crosby has been quite a bit worse than that (he ranked 42nd, 47th, and 39th in VORP the last 3 years). His average VORP over these years is -3.8 (a better VORP of 0 indicates a replacement player.

Unlike Fangraphs, I think the A’s are acquiring Cabrera (at least partly) for his bat. It is clear that Cabrera, the 10th best hitting SS the last years, is a better hitter than is Crosby:

Cabrera .288 BA .338 OBP .390 SLG .728 OPS
Crosby.. .232 BA .292 OBP .344 SLG .637 OPS
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3739&type=batting3
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5770&type=batting3

Cabrera’s defense is quite a bit better than Crosby’s over the last 3 years. Cabrera’s defense in 2008 is much closer to his Gold Glove year in 2007 than to any of Crosby’s years according the stats at Baseball Prospectus.

Cabrera RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2 (bigger numbers better)
2006…. 99 . 21 . -1 . 100 . 27
2007… 111 . 37 . 17 . 113 . 48 Gold Glove year
2008… 104 . 27 . 6 . 105 . 37

Crosby RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2
2006 . 95 . 9 . -5 . 95 . 12
2007 . 99 . 12 . -1 . 100 . 17
2008 . 92 . 7 -12 . 92 . 15
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cabreor01.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/crosbbo01.php

The ChiSox park factor was 1039, the A’s was 957. That’s an 8.2% difference, but you only play 1/2 your games at home so it’s closer to 4% (not 4.1% since a handful of Cabrera’s road games are now at ChiSox). So, I project Cabrera to have a .699 OPS (.728 3-year OPS less 4%).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2008.php#tmtot

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 2, 2009 8:45 PM PST reply actions  

Statistics

OPS double counts average, so you really should look at something like wOBA/BRAA. In any case, we’re pretty good at evaluating offense and Cabrera is worth roughly 10 runs more given a full season of ABs if we assume they repeat their 2008 numbers. Most reasonable projections show them a little closer than that for next year.

Also, BP’s defensive stats are garbage. You should ignore them. UZR, PMR, and RZR are all roughly equivalent, and they don’t show a huge difference between the two defensively, and considering that Cabrera is on the wrong side of the aging curve, it’s probably about a wash.

We can expect this deal to improve the A’s by about half a win to a full win, which is actually a decent sized upgrade. It also pushes Crosby into the backup infielder role, which could be worth a bit more than simply swapping Crosby for Cabrera.

by MrIncognito on Mar 2, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Just curious...

… not attacking, but why do you say BP’s defensive stats are “garbage?”

As far as I’m concerned, most defensive metrics (UZR, Dewan’s, etc.) are pretty subjective and generally should be taken with a large grain of salt. But, you (and a number of other people) have suggested BP’s defensive stats are worse than others… why?

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions  

They're not based on play by play data

FRAA is basically a gussied up version of Range Factor, which is nice for long ago eras when better data don’t exist, but well out of date at this point.

It’s basically being mothballed by BP as we speak.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Follow-up...

… so, which defensive metrics are based on play-by-play data (is UZR?)?

And… what’s the difference between “range factor” and defensive metrics based on play-by-play? My understanding was that a player’s range factor was based on a subjective assessment on each play about whether the typical _ would have gotten to the ball… in other words, if the evaluator believed the average SS would have gotten to a ball, and Player X did not, that would factor against Player X’s range factor…

But, based on your comment, it sounds like range factor wasn’t even based on actual play-by-play data, but instead was based on a total accumulation of stats… in other words, a player’s range factor would be determined by saying, the typical SS would get to Y balls during a season, Player X got to Z balls, Player X’s range factor is better (if Z is greater than Y) or worse (if Y is greater than Z) than average. Is that what FRAA and Range Factor are based on…

Also, when you say “based on play-by-play data,” does that mean someone is actually watching the game and making a subjective judgment based on trajectory of ball, positioning of fielders, etc., about whether a player should have gotten to a ball…?

I don’t get how these defensive metrics come up with an exact number of runs a player saved or did not save without getting into the exact details of every single ball-in-play, which would include things like managerial decisions about positioning, and other things out of the player’s control…

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Mar 3, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Range Factor is just the number of successful plays a player makes per game

Putouts and assists per 9 innings of defensive work.

FRAA, if I understand it correctly, is Range Factor, adjusted for which pitchers a player plays in front of, their tendencies with regard to grounders and fly balls, and maybe a couple of other factors.

By contrast, UZR and its ilk rely on actually plotting the landing spot/trajectory of batted balls. The field is divided into “zones”, and fielders are rated on how well they do against the batted balls that they faced in their zone. Sometimes fielders will go out of their zone to field balls, in which case they will get credit for making an unusually difficult play. (Defensive shifts will tend to cause people to get undeserved credit for unusually difficult plays but also undeserved blame for unusually easy plays that they didn’t make.)

I don’t know if any of the systems at this point use velocity of the ball as an added variable (giving fielders more credit for fielding harder-hit balls). It would certainly be relevant info and I’m sure once Hit F/X comes out all the best metrics will evaluate it.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 3, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

OPS is a pretty good stat

In fact, one of the reasons OPS works as well as it does (for a simple stat) is that it gives approximately good values to each of the offensive categories:

1 for BB or HBP slightly undervalued
2 for 1B ……… ……… |
3 for 2B ……… ……… |
4 for 3B ……… ……… v
5 for HR ……… slightly overvalued

OPS = OBP (BB,1B,2B,3B,HR each equals 1) + SLG (BB=0 1B=1 2B=2 3B=3 HR=4)

The percentage difference between each of the above OBP components is pretty close to the Run Values for each stat. Run Values tries to predict how many runs each stat will produce:

0.30 for BB or HBP
0.46 for 1B
0.75 for 2B
1.03 for 3B
1.40 for HR
http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 2, 2009 9:10 PM PST reply actions  

The goodness of OPS

First, I wanted to explain why the comment “OPS double counts average” is seemingly wrong and certainly misleading. Second, the other offensive measures you mentioned aren’t available to the average follower of baseball. If you’re watching a game in person or on TV, you can either calculate OPS or it may even be provided. Many scoreboards didn’t list OBP until recent years!?! Third, since OPS numbers are more prevalent, when someone says “Cabrera will have an OPS of .650”, I immediately know just how bad that is, and I have a knee-jerk reaction to actually calculate my prediction: “Cabrera will have an OPS of .699”.

Finally, when I look at Ruth, Williams and Gehrig at the top of the all-time OPS leaders, it emphasizs to me that OPS does a very good job of determining who the best hitters are.

Rank Player (age) OPS
1. Babe Ruth+* 1.1638
2. Ted Williams+* 1.1155
3. Lou Gehrig+* 1.0798
4. Barry Bonds* (43) 1.0512
5. Albert Pujols (28) 1.0489
6. Jimmie Foxx+ 1.0376
7. Hank Greenberg+ 1.0169
8. Rogers Hornsby+ 1.0103
9. Manny Ramirez (36) 1.0044
10. Todd Helton* (34) 1.0020
11. Mark McGwire .9823
12. Mickey Mantle+# .9773
13. Joe DiMaggio+ .9771
14. Stan Musial+* .9757
15. Frank Thomas (40) .9740
16. Lance Berkman# (32) .9730
17. Alex Rodriguez (32) .9671
18. Jim Thome* (37) .9663
19. Larry Walker* .9654
20. Vladimir Guerrero (32) .9634
21. Johnny Mize+* .9591
22. Chipper Jones# (36) .9554
23. Jeff Bagwell .9480
24. Mel Ott+* .9471
25. Ralph Kiner+ .9459
26. Lefty O’Doul* .9451
27. Ty Cobb+* .9450
28. Dan Brouthers+* .9425
29. Jason Giambi* (37) .9421
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/OPS_career.shtml

Simply dismissing OPS with the misleading statement that it “double counts average” does a huge disservice to the people who aren’t as stat-aware as others.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 3, 2009 9:42 AM PST up reply actions  

OPS leaves out a whole shitload of other stuff though.

Do you think Todd Helton is the 10th best hitter ever? OPS say so, right?

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 3, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

If Helton got his stats in an average park, maybe

Helton got his stats in probably the most freakish hitters park ever (certainly before the humidor when he amassed most of his stats). It’s easy to nit pick one point. Do you not think that Ruth, Williams and Gehrig are the best hitters ever?

OPS is only about hitting, not about baserunning, defense, etc. I know it has limitations. There are better stats. If you have better stats, bring them to the table. If you don’t like certain stats explain why you don’t like certain stats.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 3, 2009 10:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Unfortunately, we’ve already had this same conversation about 129381948239484923534985 times on this blog. It is incumbent upon you to research your posts. If you really are curious about the relative merits of various offensive stats, about 20 minutes on Google should clear up a lot of questions. For the most part, people are perfectly willing to point you towards information, but it’s a bit much to expect a rehash of the same conversation every couple months.

OPS isn’t a terrible stat, and it’s well correlated with scoring. That being said, there is a whole world of more robust stats available at any number of web sites (ex: wOBA as pointed out in the post above this one).

by MrIncognito on Mar 3, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I wasn't here for these discussions

My point is: show me the wOBA stats for Cabrera and Crosby. I can google with the best of them to figure out what wOBA is. It will take me some time to become comfortable with wOBA numbers, and I’ll need proof like I provided with OPS that wOBA is a valid measure. But I may come around to it.

One of the reasons I haven’t spent much time on AN, is that I rarely saw the actually numbers discussions. I see vague comments like “Cabrera will have an OPS of .650”, but that is a number pulled out of someone’s a**. Thus, I found AN to be a waste of my time.

I am trying to raise the statistical analysis level of these discussions. And I feel like I’m being badgered into being quiet. And the people badgering really aren’t bringing much to the table.

I apologize if this hurts people’s feelings. I just needed to say where I was coming from.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 4, 2009 9:37 AM PST up reply actions  

two deluded people

That scenario doesn’t sit well with Crosby, who said he will ask for a trade if the team solicits his thoughts on the subject.

“I feel they obviously decided to go get someone else, and I hope they give me the opportunity to go play shortstop somewhere else,” Crosby said. “I’ve always enjoyed playing in Oakland, but I feel it’s in my best interests to play shortstop — if not in Oakland, I hope they give me a chance to play somewhere else.”

another team has to actually want you to play shortstop for them.

“Orlando is extremely excited,” agent Dan Lozano said. “Obviously the market made this off-season very difficult. We had three or four clubs (show interest). The way things played out with opportunity, and the opportunity to win, everything pointed at Oakland.”

are those the same clubs that are bidding on manny?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 9:39 PM PST reply actions  

obviously

Crosby can be traded to the 2 or 3 other teams bidding for Cabrera.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Mar 2, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Or to the mystery team!

Run, undoubtedly, by Jim Bowden.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions  

apparently he's not willing to change positions, is crosby willing to change his name?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 2, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions  

No - his name worked well for him in high school

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 2, 2009 9:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah, back to the good old dumb-as-a-post Bobby Crosby we've all come to know and [not] love

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you serious?

Honestly, what the fuck is he supposed to say?

“Well, yeah, I kept hearing all the rumors about another shortstop, and I know they waived me, but we started Spring Training so I figured it was okay. Hey, I guess I’ll just sit the bench and shut up.”

Keep in mind that, even though everybody says he sucks, he’s been the starting shortstop EVERYWHERE he’s played in his life, ever.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 2, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

And Crosby has been our worst starting position player the last 3 years

I don’t feel sorry for someone like Crosby who has put up numbers like this in 1377 plate appearances: .232 BA .292 OBP .344 SLG .637 OPS

The A’s are trying to win this year, and SS was our weakest position over the last couple of years. So Billy was smart to replace the 43rd best offensive SS in the league with the 10th best offensive SS in the league. The 43rd best SS in the league does not deserve to be a starter.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 2, 2009 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

What's he supposed to say?

“Nothing” would be a good start.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Mar 2, 2009 10:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Honestly, what the fuck is he supposed to say?

I’m just happy to be here and I hope I can help the ball club.
I just want to give it my best shot and, the good lord willing, everything will work out.

by MrIncognito on Mar 3, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Sometimes…it rains. Think about that.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Mar 3, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Draft pick is probably non-issue

Like notsellingjeans said, we may well get 2 draft picks in the future for Cabrera, worst case no draft picks if we don’t offer him arbitration. That averages out to 1 draft pick, which is what we’re giving up.

by BillyWannabeane on Mar 2, 2009 9:46 PM PST reply actions  

I like the signing a lot!

Cabrera brings more excitement and depth to the A’s both offensively and defensively. I’m for bringing in Nomar too. Now if Beane can find a way to add a solid proven starting pitcher Oakland will make a strong run at the division title and maybe more.

by jdub69 on Mar 2, 2009 9:52 PM PST reply actions  

I wanted to see Crosby again...

Maybe Beane knows Crosby is going to break out and is just benching him so he can re-sign him cheaply for 2010 when the team is really good.

Why didnt I see it before!!!

I miss Chad God

by ChadGod on Mar 2, 2009 10:56 PM PST reply actions  

This is turning into a soap opera.......best of luck on that trade Bobby.

{shakes head…….calls up other mystery teams that may be interested in Manny Ramirez…..asks if they might want Bobby CRosby instead.}

Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox

by mrod on Mar 3, 2009 12:32 AM PST reply actions  

My Favorite Part Of This Deal...

Is that It is only a one year situation. In this dannn age, the cruel reality is that players perform at their finest when they are on the last year of their contract.

by hyphybeast on Mar 3, 2009 4:31 AM PST reply actions  

like... Crosby is?

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Mar 3, 2009 7:33 AM PST up reply actions  

nice work!

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Mar 3, 2009 8:43 AM PST up reply actions  

wht Cabrera had to say about signing with the A's

according to this article in USA Today:

Cabrera, who rejected salary arbitration from the Chicago White Sox where he likely would have earned about $10 million to $12 million, realizes he missed out on a huge payday. He was hoping to receive at least a deal similar to the two-year, $18 million contract that Edgar Renteria got with the San Francisco Giants. But with this economy, he realizes precious few people are going from the unemployment line one day to a $4 million salary.

“That’s a lot of money,” he says, "a lot of money. I’m not complaining.

“I’m excited to go to Oakland. It’s an honor. I grew up watching (A’s greats) Rickey Henderson, Carney Lansford and (Mark) McGwire. And now I get to play with (Jason) Giambi. Giambi is one of my buddies.”

by OaklandSi on Mar 3, 2009 8:47 AM PST reply actions  

Props for a non canned interview.

4M is a lot of money. But is has to suck losing 6M because you were greedy. You have to love irony and down market conspiring against Bobby.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Mar 3, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

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