We are #1... according to BP.
by jacobo2u on Feb 9, 2009 2:42 PM PST
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PrintAs many of you already know, Baseball prospectus released their depth charts for the year, as well as the pecota based team projections.
They listed the A's as first with 82wins, the LAAA's at 79. I remember lots of people predicting that the A's are a 85 win team right now. What say ye now?
I don't know a lot about other projections, such as the bill james, CHONE and zips and zits, but I do know that BP delivers year in year out.
IF the angles add dunn, and he is a two win increase, then the a's would be still up one game, which is well within the margin of error; it will come to how much grit the A's have and how mexican chavez is, I guess.
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A's just signed Edgar Gonzalez
http://www.dot.nd.gov/roadreport/roadreport/roadreport.asp
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
oops...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/athletics-sign.html
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
now they're over the top!
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 9, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
We signed North Dakotah?
Take THAT, you Yankees. You signed a few men, we signed an entire state!
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 9, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
if you think about it...
the yankees are probably worth more than the entire state of north dakota
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
No no...
There’s too much oil here for that.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Forget spit balls!
Gio, use the oil ball!
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 10, 2009 6:26 AM PST up reply actions
Now that's a lousy division ...
We’re number least bad!
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
ha, the new moneyball undervalued asset...
Have your team in the crappy division!
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
Yeah, it worked wonders for the Rockies
by theblackpearl on Feb 9, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
You're one of those
optimismisticals I keep hearing about.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 12:29 AM PST up reply actions
That's only because it's February and I really want baseball season to start
Two weeks into the season I’ll be leading the “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!” charge.
by thejd44 on Feb 10, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
We already did die
or haven’t you been following the stock market?
Stewart 7, Clemens / McNamee 1
by eastcoasta'sfan on Feb 10, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
From what I remember...
The first round of BP projections don’t include defense, and they might not include schedule strength.
Both of those would push the A’s above 82 wins.
I would think schedule strength would be neutral to negative
even for teams in a horrible AL division. Remember, the A’s play 90 games against AL East and AL Central opponents.
Defense is presumably a plus.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
The AL Central doesn't look much (any?) stronger than the AL West ...
If the team is better than average (as the A’s, according to this estimate, ever so slightly are) then the SOS in an unweighted schedule would be weaker than average. Since their schedule is weighted in favor of the worst division in baseball, their SOS is even weaker … but we’re probably not talking about more than a win in difference …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Every AL team has to face other AL teams
and the AL has consistently been the stronger league recently.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Yeah, so? We're only comparing them to the other AL teams ...
They have the AL, overall, as being 4 games above .500 (assuming I can count … not necessarily a safe assumption …), so that doesn’t change anything …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Well, sure, if the leagues are that close, it won't have any effect
If the AL is 40 games above .500, it’ll make a pretty big difference…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
perhaps
I remember that the players ERA does include defense, but as you said, that might be in a later revision. That being said, how many revisions do they need? their book is being shipped out in like 4 days!
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
putting my order in...
for the BP 2009 season preview, 6th edition
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
They revise it a couple of times after the book ships ... the version in the book is an early one ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I'm just going off of last year.
In 2008, they didn’t include fielding in the pitcher projections until they released the PECOTA cards for pitchers—which was 10 days or so after their first Depth Charts were published:
A side note: the pitcher projections now incorporate PECOTA projections for a team’s defensive acumen based on our depth charts, which makes quite a bit of difference in a couple of cases. For example, all Devil Rays pitchers have had 30 to 50 points shaved off their ERA, as we expect their defense to be massively better this season than it was a year earlier.
wow, they must have had all the Devil Rays pitchers getting injured after giving up 4-5 runs in 1 inning
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Feb 11, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions
so I'd say it was a good revision on their part
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Feb 11, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions
Someone will win 85+ games in the AL West
That’s my opinion.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Never
2009 AL West: Baseball’s best replacement level division.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 9, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
Likely.
Teams that win tend to be, on aggregate, a little lucky in terms of outperforming Pythag or getting unexpected performances. It’s not inconceivable that a true-talent 85-win team picks up 90 wins. So even if all four teams in the AL West were true talent 81-win teams, the division winner would probably win something like 85 games.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
one more run scored than allowed is hardly like
maybe tolerate.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Wow! BP tolerates us. They really tolerate us!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 10, 2009 7:21 AM PST up reply actions
The new phone book's here! The new phone book's here!
Page 73 – Oakland A’s. We’re somebody now! Dozens of people read this book every year! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity – your team’s name in print – that makes a team. We’re in print! Things are going to start happening to us now.
[ducks as sniper shoots Chavez, Duke and Holliday . . . while missing Crosby]
Stewart 7, Clemens / McNamee 1
by eastcoasta'sfan on Feb 10, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
That Angel offense needs Manny and Dunn.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
The Angel offense
needs some “offense”. I’m thinking GA, Griffey Jr., Abreu, and Jose Cruz Jr.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 10, 2009 7:40 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure anyone's still reading this thread...
… but just in case, the Angels signing of Bobby Abreu just bumped the Los Angelos of Anaheim in Los Angeles to 84-78, two games better than the A’s, in Baseball Prospectus’ newly updated Depth Charts (as of 2/12/2009).
Wonder what signing Cabrera would do to our projected record? If we signed O-Cab, my guess is we’d be projected right around the same: 84-78.
Going to be a hell of a (mediocre) season in the AL West…
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