What else does Jack Cust do with two strikes?
I got enough requests last time to make my posts fanposts so here we are. Original can be found here.
Continuing the trend from my last post on the A's called strike threes, I originally wanted to do this looking at the whole team. But apparently I need to brush up on my querying and graphing skills first because this took too much time as it was, and that was just for one player! Granted he happens to be the best player, but there's only so much time in a day.
So last time we learned that the A's like to strike out looking a lot relative to most of the league, with Jack Cust leading the pack. But even though it seemed like it happened all the time, Cust doesn't always just sit back and take strike three down the middle when he has two strikes on him. He can also go down hacking too!
OK, so that was a bit of an exaggeration as Cust did a lot of other things with two strikes, including hitting 11 dingers. 2 of these were actually in 0-2 counts. John Lackey and Octavio Dotel, you should be ashamed of yourselves. Hmmm, seems Lackey's was with the Angels up 5-0 in the 9th and the bases empty, so he's excused. But Octavio:

for shame.
But the pie chart only can tell so much. Yes he took about 55% of pitches with two strikes but was that only because they were horrible pitches or was there more to it? Thankfully we have pitch fx data to work with as well. Here's what Cust decided to do with the bat with two strikes:
And before anyone asks, the +'s being swings and the -'s being takes is not my subliminal way of saying that swinging with 2 strikes is better than taking a pitch. I just went with these because they were the smallest shapes that didn't take up too much space on the chart. It's still pretty messy though, and I'm not sure how much it tells us. Cust is pretty good at not swinging at pitches out of the zone, but he is at almost all counts (15.3% swinging at out of zone pitches in 2008 according to Fangrahps, 4th lowest in the majors.)
But Cust did chase at pitches out of the zone still, so what was he swinging at?
(Remember, this is from the umpire/catcher perspective)
Changeups away seem to be a bit of an issue, as are fastballs away. Part of this may also be a product of Cust having to swing at pitches out of the zone he doesn't want to because they're being called strikes, harking back to the last article. He swings at a lot of high fastballs, but he actually made contact with just over half of those. Can't say the same for the bottom part of the strikezone. Cust only was able to put the bat on 1 ball below the strikezone, striking out the other 22 times.
One positive sign is there are few completely ugly looking swings on the chart. I think the changeup low and away is pretty bad looking, and then there's the one ridiculous inside slider that might be an error. Ah, it's so much easier with MLB video when its a starter pitching, much easier to find their strikeouts. Here they are:

So the Felix changeup looks much closer to the plate than the chart shows, it's a damn good pitch regardless. The Santana slider(? that is some insane downward break, curveball like but faster) just owned his soul. Even if he's expecting fastball I'm not sure what his swing is going to do to it, and it looks like Jack didn't have an idea either.
One request that I thought was pretty good was overlaying the balls with two strikes chart over the called strikes one, so here is Cust's:
There's a clear pocket of called strikes/no balls centered at (-1, 2.5). Looking up at Cust's swinging O-Z strike chart there's an empty bit in that area surrounded by a pocket of fastballs he swung at. Notice too all the "balls" in the lower part of the zone, and no low called strikeouts (well just one right on the corner).
So if I was Jack's 2-strike pitch f/x coach, I would tell him to start swinging at pitches away in the middle of the zone as they're gonna be called strikes, and take more offspeed stuff down by the knees since they're being called balls more often and he's not likely to be able to do much damage with them anyway.
Like last time, if you want to mess around with the data I've uploaded my spreadsheet to Editgrid.
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Comments
First -- that is some cool data compliation.
Second — that shot off Dotel is f*cking PRETTY.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Very pretty!
Just made me smile, over and over and over again
"And sometimes, when it seems like all hope is gone, Life tosses you a special gift of a baseball game" . 7/10/08 BaseBallGirl headline
I watched it
to see the reaction of each and every fan behind the plate.
Yeah, I know.
I'm here to talk about the past.
I wonder how many of them got whiplash or some other neck injury from the snap up after the ball came off the bat?
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
+The Universe..!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
Such a godawful pitch
Even the catcher lined up not too far inside, looks like they were trying to sneak a fastball in on him regardless in an 0-2 count. Not a wise move.
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+1
So if I was Jack’s 2-strike pitch f/x coach, I would tell him to start swinging at pitches away in the middle of the zone as they’re gonna be called strikes, and take more offspeed stuff down by the knees since they’re being called balls more often and he’s not likely to be able to do much damage with them anyway.
If only it were that easy… :)
Good work tho
I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 5, 2009 11:18 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
you say
But apparently I need to brush up on my querying and graphing skills
firstly – i think it’s pretty good. secondly, i kinda do this stuff for a living (not with baseball, but with more boring stuff), so you need any help on this, feel free to hit me up.
why don’t i do my own graphs for this site? well, that would conflate baseball and work. which would make me sad. and everyone else does it so well!
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 5, 2009 11:55 AM PST reply actions
a point about Jack's 'swinging' strikes, and a couple of other things
i haven’t watched all of that video, but it seems like a number of them are just checked swings that weren’t checked rapidly enough. any way of calling them out?
another interesting thing (and i’m creating work here, i know), would be a variation on the ‘hot zones’ that one of the tv stations (fox? espn? dunno) uses to show the era or wtvr a batsman has to pitches in different zones (i think they divide it up into nine).
what we’re interesting in finding out, is this – if a pitch is in a given location (to have enough of a statistical dataset, you’ll probably have to have the aforementioned ‘zones’, rather than actually a location), is it more likely to be called a ball or strike if no swing is made? well, more accurately, what is the likelihood of it being called a ball or strike?
this percentage chance can then be compared with the chance of a swing at that ball having a positive outcome (i would count another that doesn’t make an out as a positive outcome, but you can argue about fouls). we can then build a ‘Actually, statistically speaJack Cust should only swing at the following pitches’ model.
um. yes. does that make sense? i should add, that apropos of my previous post, i’m unlikely to do this myself, i only mention it as something potentially interesting.
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 5, 2009 12:09 PM PST reply actions
No way of singling out check swings to my knowledge
besides watching the video, which I’m not adverse to some of the time but not really for 120 K’s separated by days/games.
No, please keep the ideas coming, while creating work sounds awful (and sometimes I think it is) it’s the way to learn. And your questions are usually excellent, this one is no different.
Maybe instead of a zone I can do some kind of, man I’m a bit embarrassed to not even know what it’s called, one of these types of charts:
instead of setting up arbitrary zones. Hmmm, I need to figure out how I’d make one of those first I guess.
But yes, I like the idea of assigning values to each outcome and then finding a theoretical optimal number of pitches he should swing at. While it would be more theoretical than anything, good luck telling hitters to optimally balance their swinging %, it’s still a useful exercise I feel.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score
I think those things are called "basketball courts"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is that a hoops court or some kind of Vorlon radar screen?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
heat map!
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 6, 2009 12:49 AM PST up reply actions
Is that a space ship on re-entry or
is it a p…no thats too easy
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
right, but that's just era
not, what is the likelihood of a pitch being called a ball or strike if he takes it. i mean, it’d be similar, sure.
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 5, 2009 12:19 PM PST reply actions
i must learn to use the reply button correctly x 10
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
i must learn to use the reply button correctly
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 5, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Curious about Walks.
Looking at this purely from a “what chance does he have at not making an out with two strikes,” I would be curious to know if this data is compiled for somewhere for various 2 strike counts (ie 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2).
I understand that batting average isn’t everything but surely a team can’t survive if all the players hit .220—-even if they walk a ton. Statistically speaking, the chances of scoring without a hit are not in your favor (especially since we don’t steal bases much—though more in recent history). So if you get on base a ton but with low batting average it means primarily you strikeout or walk——correct?
This I think is what frustrates me about Cust. I find it hard to swallow when he is called awesome with a .220 average.
Regardless of how many times he walks. I mean you don’t really want your clean-up guy to walk anyway—-he is supposed to “clean-up” not become a base-running liability.
I realize I am simplifying the nuances a little —but it doesn’t seem ideal…and it seems far from excellent.
simplifying the nuances a little
You keep using that phrase. I do not think it means what you think it means.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
sorry I should say....
Simplifying the idea (in an attempt at brevity)…leaving out some of the nuances.
For the record, i only said it once—-i didn’t “keep” saying it.
by WhiteElephant on Feb 5, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Does he think it means "making incorrect statements about the nuances"?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Hey, hey!
Best one in a while! You’re ready for spring training!
"...in baseball you wear a cap." -- george carlin
Indeed, good to see the offseason program showing promise for the up coming season
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
Not sure if you've seen it before
But one of Bill Jameseses most famous lines is “the difference between a .275 and .300 hitter over a season is one extra hit every 2 weeks”
I know neither of these numbers is .220, but if Cust hit .250 would you still have a problem thinking he’s awesome? Because that’s about the same 1 hit every 2 weeks, which just isn’t that important in the grand scheme of things, especially when the .220 hitter is a cuadrangular masher.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score
Further breakdown
I apologize if I missed the discussion of this small issue elsewhere, but does anyone else consider it relevant how many strikeouts looking (Cust’s or anyone else’s) occurred with a runner on 1st? After all, the only outcome worse than striking out looking (with less than two outs) would be to hit into a double play. Is that possibly in the mind of the hitter, or am I giving them too much credit?
"If you make up your mind not to be happy, there's no reason why you shouldn't have a fairly good time." -Edith Wharton (The Last Asset)
by Oakville Athletic on Feb 5, 2009 1:19 PM PST reply actions
Hasn't been discussed before
I think it’s probably giving a bit too much credit to the hitter, if he’s that worried about the DP with a man on first that he’s thinking about taking borderline pitches for the sake of not hitting into a DP he might as well swing from the heels then.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score
With a runner on first
A strikeout looking is actually no worse than a pop out, a strike out swinging, a force out (speed differences between the two runners aside), or a fly ball that would’ve been a homer but is instead robbed by the outfielder (assuming no tag up). They’re all outs that don’t advance the runner.
by thejd44 on Feb 5, 2009 10:51 PM PST up reply actions
Great post - thanks
My take is that the best analysis is: Like most hitters, in any count, Jack Cust does not handle exceptionally awesome pitches, or pitches perfectly thrown in “pitchers’ spots,” very well.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
True
I knew Santana had an awesome statistical year and I’ve questioned it a lot, but if he is able to throw that pitch regularly I don’t see what hitters are supposed to do. WTF did that come from?
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score
Nice post
Cust couldn’t do a much better job of taking low pitches
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
Answer: delegates his felonies to his posse
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Answer: Urges labor to yield on one, management to yield on the other
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Answer: Avoids discussing politics, baiting other users, or stalking grover
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If not, there has to be room for one more.
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Thanks!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm sure that nevermoor meant that you're our most valuable trading chip
Right?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Great, now Cindi's crying
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think we'd be keeping Cindi in any transaction, since she's still cost-controlled
(Despite the Cinnabon incident at the mall.)
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
THAT WAS TOTALLY GERRI'S FAULT!!!
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Question about the GIFs
First of all, great and interesting post. Looking at the overlay of balls and strikes makes me feel better about Cust’s general approach with 2 strikes.
I have a question about the animated GIFs here and in other fanposts. How do you make them? I assume they are converted from video in some way, but is there special software that will do that?
...when you let other people tell you what success is, you already have no chance of ever finding it. - Doug Glanville
I use Camtasia software to record and convert video from MLB.com or MLB.TV
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