A's considering one year $5 million (or less) offer to Orlando Cabrera.
by JPShark on Feb 3, 2009 8:18 AM PST
207 comments
Just saw this piece posted by Jon Heyman regarding the A's and Orlando Cabrera. He says that the A's are looking to make an offer for one year, and no more then $5 million. I know some people are against a Cabrera signing, but at $5 million or less we would be getting him at a HUGE discount.
http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/46942-as-could-take-final-shot-at-orlando-cabrera
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I think for most people this is about where you think the team is right now...
If you think we’re close to contending or already are contending, then the 1 or 2 wins more that Cabrera will bring is probably worth the $5 for Cabrera (and the $5 million for Crosby).
If you think the A’s still aren’t contenders, then this is a total waste of money.
I tend to fall on the side that says we’re contenders (mostly because of the Angels bad offseason, not so much because the A’s have had a good one) so I think $5 million more for 1 or 2 wins could be huge. So i think it would be a good signing.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Feb 3, 2009 8:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If they can sign him at that kind of discount, they'd be wise to do so for 2 years
There’s no realistic possibility of the recent draftees making it to the bigs in one year. Maybe Pennington or Petit breaks out, but it’s not likely. They’re looking at the same hole next offseason as they are this offseason.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:30 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Any decent FA SS's
out there next off season?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Feb 3, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh dear god no
The #1 free agent SS next season is the remnants of Tejada. Cabrera himself would probably be the #2 if he signed a 1-year deal. Then you’ve got Khalil Greene, Crosby himself, Jack Wilson if the Pirates decline his option and it’s all downhill from there.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Cabrera is really the #2 option next year...
… that would make him hesitant to sign for such a low salary for multiple years, yeah? This deal might seem palatable to him if Beane sells it as, “wait a year, get the economy rolling again, and cash in in 2011.” Otherwise, BB may be wandering into “offend the SS’s sense of pride with a low (albeit sensible in terms of the market) offer” territory again.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 3, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, 2010, I guess
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 3, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
While it might be nice for us to sign the best available SS for a below-market salary for two seasons, I doubt O-Cab would agree to take below-market salary for two years when he’ll be the best available SS again next offseason.
This is an unusually shitty market for free agents. O-Cab recognizes that. He’s not going to compromise his future earning power by locking himself into a long-term deal at below-market salayr. Sign him for one season at $5M; get the short-term SS upgrade for the 2009 season (and hopefully contend with Holliday, Giambi, and Cabrera); offer him arbitration after the 2009 season… if he accepts, he’d get a nice raise; if he declines, we take the draft pick and look elsewhere for a SS.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 3, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying don't sign him for one year
Just, you know, get the second year if it’s on the table.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 4:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It would at least make us feel better when we're skipping the 2nd round of the draft
knowing that we have a SS.
by MrIncognito on Feb 3, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fo'sho
If a cheap Year 2 is on the table; absolutely, sign on the dotted line. I just don’t think a cheap Year 2 will be part of the discussion on O-Cab’s side.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt Cabrera would sign for 2 years at a discount price
He’s gotta be hoping to get by on $5 million this year and that the market will turn itself around in 10 months.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"He’s gotta be hoping to get by on $5 million this year "
Boy, I wish I had that problem…….“veh’”.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 3, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, I may just be able to get by with only $ 5million
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Feb 3, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
right now I could use a cool $500.00
:)
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 3, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd accept $50 at room temperature
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or $5.00 with a pulse?
Oh wait! I’m thinking of that hooker in Slovania….
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 3, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
pulse not necesary
maybe thats just me
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 3, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes but
Cabrera will be a year worse in 2010, as his skills are only going to decline at this point. We’re talking about a guy who only hits, what, .270/.330/.390 right now, in his thirties, with decent defense. He might be no better than Crosby by next year.
"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt
by Philip Christy on Feb 3, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cabrera may be no better than crosby by next year, but crosby will be gone next year
who will be the starting SS?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 3, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What I’m saying is, signing Cabrera for next year has a good chance of putting the A’s in the same situation they are this year: owing $5 mil to a crappy shortstop, and looking high and low for a decent one. I don’t think it would be a good deal.
"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt
by Philip Christy on Feb 3, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There may very well be a couple of young SS on the trade market next offseason
Ivan De Jesus, and either Alcides Escobar or JJ Hardy.
by CapgrasDelusion on Feb 3, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but they ain't coming cheap
unless they Lillibridge… er, I mean, suck next season.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the solution is simple!
After Cabrera sucks in ’09 and becomes a sunk cost for ’10, we sign free-agent shortstop Bobby Crosby to a cheap 2-year deal. After Crosby sucks in ’10 and becomes a sunk cost for ’11, we sign free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a cheap 2-year deal. After Cabrera sucks in ’11 and becomes a sunk cost for ’12, we sign free-agent shortstop Bobby Crosby to a cheap 2-year deal. After Crosby sucks in ’12 and becomes a sunk cost for ’13, we sign free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a cheap 2-year deal.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Who taught you commedy?
Mychael Urban?
"Good or bad, I don't know. This is awesome." ~Nick Swisher after being asked if it was wise to poor beer on Lew Wolfe's head.
by humdinger on Feb 3, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, Mychael Urban taught him to drink.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Feb 3, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
At least a Urban joke
that Mychael can laugh about on AN… good work.
The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.
by gdub171 on Feb 3, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A year worse...
… Cabrera’s value derives from his defensive skills, not his offensive skills. Defense does not decline as quickly as offense. Assuming the market rights itself, O-Cab is much better off (1) signing a one-year, $5M deal for 2009 and testing the market again in 2010, than he is (2) signing a below-market deal for 2009 and 2010.
One option would be for the A’s to offer him the following contract: 1-year, $5M, with a team option at $10M for the 2010 season and a player option at $5M for the 2010 season. If he falls off a cliff this year (not likely), he’s still guaranteed $10M over two seasons. If he goes nuts, the A’s can bring him back at a salary closer to his market value ($10M for the 2010 season). Or, both parties could decline to exercise their options, and we could offer him arbitration after the 2009 season and get the draft pick when he declined (or bring him back if he accepted).
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 3, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's creative, but I'd sooner just offer 1 year, 5mil
and then maybe offer him arbitration after 2009 – if he accepts, pay him a reasonable amount to be your SS in 2010, and if he declines then at least he’s worth a draft pick and you don’t have to pay him anymore.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I would prefer your option too… I was just throwing another one out there.
Offering arb after 2009 basically accomplishes the same thing (from our perspective) and nets us a draft pick, so no reason for the dual-option proposal other than if O-Cab refuses to sign the 1-yr, $5M deal.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 3, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the plan is that if O-Cab refuses a 1 year, $5mil deal
the A’s will say “Well he’s not that great anyway,” and will move on without much angst.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
He’s really only an option because he’s over a barrel and has nowhere else to play. If he accepts that, fine; if he finds it offensive, tough luck for him.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
Cabrera’s value derives from his defensive skills, not his offensive skills.
Therein lies the problem. People who see Cabrera as definitely a 1-2 win upgrade over Crosby because of his defense are basing everything on his 2008 season where he was 14 runs above average. That’s excellent defense, but the problem is that in his long career, he’s only done that twice. Over his career he’s averaged 7.2 runs above average in UZR/150, vs 3.7 for Crosby. That’s less than half a win, and his batting projections, when neutralized, have him only a few more runs above Crosby.
by Nate on Feb 3, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Value
Crosby’s average career UZR is skewed by his 2005 season, when he was 16.7 runs above average. His career line looks like this: 2004 (151 G; 3.5 UZR); 2005 (84 G; 16.7 UZR); 2006 (95 G; -1.1 UZR); 2007 (92 G; 4.5 UZR); 2008 (145 G; 0.0 UZR). The last three years, Crosby has barely been above average; meanwhile, Cabrera’s put up a -1.6 UZR (in 2006), a 9.7 UZR (in 2007), and a 13.4 UZR (in 2008). Based on three-year averages, Cabrera’s at least 6-7 runs better than Crosby defensively.
Then we get to hitting… which is simply a debacle from Bobby Crosby’s side of the equation. Over the last three seasons, according to FanGraphs, Bobby Crosby has put up the following “batting value run” totals (I’m just using FanGraphs “value runs” because it seems to be the currency of choice on this website): -14.5, -15.9, and -18.7. Anyone see a trend? This is a guy who, but for his contract, would not be allowed to order bats from the Louisville Slugger factory. Meanwhile, Cabrera has put up the following “hitting value runs”: -0.6, 0.8, -11.1. Again, based on three-year averages (you can dispute whether that’s the best measure, of course, but some regression to his 3-year mean seems to be a fairly safe assumption even at Cabrera’s age), Cabrera’s about 13 runs better offensively per season than Crosby. So, that puts him around 20 runs better, or two full wins better.
But, that’s really beside the point… Part of O-Cab’s marginal value (over Crosby) derives from his durability as well as his enhanced production? Sure, Crosby played 150-something games last year, but this is the same guy who broke a rib swinging at a pitch (I’m going to go out on a limb and say the pitch was a slider . . . two-feet off the plate . . . in the dirt). Crosby simply is not durable (or at least, cannot be counted on to be durable). O-Cab has shown the ability to stay healthy, which, despite what anyone may claim, is a skill.
So — the question isn’t whether we’re getting 150 games of O-Cab (with his above-average defense and his below-average bat) versus 150 games of Crosby (with his average defense and atrocious bat); the question is whether we want the security of Cabrera, or the possibiltiy of a little bit of Crosby, a little bit of Pennington, and a little bit of Petit. Given that we’re already playing with the Jack Hannahan fire (Gawd help us if Hannahan gets 250+ ABs this year) over at the Hot Corner, I think I’ll take the security of O-Cab at SS.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting take on that Uncle Charlie
Mostly I just want to see the A’s make up their mind who is gonna be the SS this year. If it’s Crosby, so be it. If it’s Cabrera, ditto.
Just make a friggin decision already!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 4, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Make a decision… preferably one that involves Bobby Crosby wearing the Stomper uniform this season instead of playing SS.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A $5M mascot!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 4, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mascots are undervalued in the current market
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 4, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Feb 4, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
At this point
I’d rather wait for a minor league deal. I doubt it’ll come to that, but that would be my preference. Throw in easy to achieve incentives to build up to $5 or so and avoid losing the pick.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on Feb 3, 2009 8:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Can you really get around losing a pick by making it a minor-league deal?
I’m wondering why other clubs haven’t already done that.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Feb 3, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Toronto did it last year with Shannon Stewart.
Which screwed the A’s out of a pick. Which is why AN wants the A’s to do it to someone else.
by HigherPie on Feb 3, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it would be more accurate to say that Toronto signing Shannon Stewart
caused the A’s not to get a draft pick they had no business getting in the first place.
I mean, come on, a comp pick for Shannon Stewart? You’ve got to be kidding me.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not kidding you.
I am dead frackin’ serious.
by HigherPie on Feb 3, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You misunderstand me
I know he was eligible to provide a comp pick. What he was not, was in any way enough of a “loss” to justify a team legitimately earning that comp pick.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think the point is
shannon stewart sucked. like really really sucked. he got a minor league deal not only cause they didnt want to give up the pick, but because he was terrible. the fact that he signed it speaks volumes about how good he was
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 3, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad he was in the A's lineup when Schilling almost no-hit them.
he saved us all from a terrible thing and it was worth his whole salary just for that.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Feb 3, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
For that I will always love that man, in a way that I’ve never before loved a man who has a girl’s name.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Feb 3, 2009 6:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
[googles Shannon Stewart, is shocked by results]
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Compared to other AL left fielders, Stewart was average with the bat and a bit above average with the glove in 2007.
Sure, that’s because AL LFers sucked that year, but it is what it is.
by Danny on Feb 3, 2009 11:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So a grand total of (approx) $10M spent on the SS position in 2009, for "ok" production.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 8:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Crosby contract is a sunk cost
It’s irrelevant to this decision (apart from the different replacement-level baseline that it sets… and Crosby is so close to replacement level himself that that barely matters).
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
Anything that can improve this team— and bring them closer to a potential division title— is hardly a “waste of money”. People forget that should this team be in contention in late July, Beane holds a lot of cards to get another bat or arm.
I think the business plan for this team has evolved. Obviously the new stadium and everything that comes with it— partic. the season ticket plans— has been delayed at least another year. That means that success on the field— and particularly a potential postseason— becomes even more crucial to keep the fan base solvent,.
by windyfelix on Feb 3, 2009 8:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and while there are many ifs...
A lineup of Suzuki, Giambi/Barton, Ellis, Cabrera, Chavez, Holliday, Sweeney, Buck/Cust, Giambi/Cust is starting to look like a genuine major league lineup. This is 1999, except the young pitching waiting in the wings is deeper.
by windyfelix on Feb 3, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe it, but...
I agree with you. This is almost 1999 to a T and, man wouldn’t it be great to make it to the playoffs this time :)
The future is looking bright.
by jeffro on Feb 3, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it is 1999!
Cust is the new Jaha and Giambi is the new Matt Stairs and matt holiday is the new Giambi
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's 1999?
I’d better buy a house, then, ‘cuz the market’s going up up up and it’s NEVER gonna come down!
"I have more questions after these."-WaddellCanseco
by Gaijin_Suketto on Feb 3, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If it is 1999 I should stop caring about what people write on the internet.
At the end of the year all of the computers are gonna stop working, so who the heck cares?
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Feb 3, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it's 1999?
then where the hell is all my hair?
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 3, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Come to think of it
Why isn’t the sky purple and why aren’t there people dancing everywhere?
Maybe it isn’t 1999.
by jeffro on Feb 3, 2009 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a lion in your pocket?
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Feb 3, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes I think people get too wrapped up in paying for a player based...
on what type of value they have. Is $5 million worth 1 or 2 wins? Is $10 million worth a mediocre player.
While that’s certainly important, I think people, as fans, should focus more on what’s being put out into the field. Like windyfeliz said improving the team is hardly a waste of money.
Certainly, free agent signings now impact deals 1… maybe 5… maybe 10 years down the road. But, signing Cabrera for $5 million isn’t going to be the difference between the A’s resigning Holliday or not or whether or not they’ll get some other big name guy next off-season.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Feb 3, 2009 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, that's not a good way to look at it.
Because signing Cabrera basically means you’re paying $10+ million for shitty shortstop play. No thanks. I’ll pay $5 million for shitty shortstop play.
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That argument is about as valid as saying
that $100,000 and $1,000,000 are both a lot of money, therefore I should be willing to trade the million for the hundred thousand because they’re the same.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
deal!
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 3, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wise trade my friend
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's nothing like that at all.
If Cabrera was going to be good at baseball in an A’s uniform in 2009, fine. But he’s not. I don’t think he’ll be worth more than half a win than Crosby. That’s not worth 5 million.
You have to take into account Crosby’s contract here because we’re talking about the team paying $10 for not much production. I’d rather them pay just $5 for that “not much.”
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the thing to realize here is that if Crosby were making league
minimum your arguement would be the same, wouldn’t it? Wouldn’t you still argue that Cabrera is not worth 5M regardless of Crosby’s salary? Conversly, if you thought that Cabrera was a 2-3 win upgrade over Crosby you would support the signing regardless of what the A’s are paying Crosby wouldn’t you?
The relevant fact is that you think Cabrera will not be much of an upgrade. The fact that Crosby is making a salary of 5M is not relevant to this arguement since that money is already gone.
by AsFanInLA on Feb 3, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You say it's nothing like that at all,
and then go on to make exactly the same argument all over again. I heard you the first time.
The statement that the two are only half a win apart is flatly not supported by evidence. Cabrera projects to out-OPS Crosby by 50 points or so while playing significantly better defense. That’s not a half a win differential.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And whatever the actual difference between the two is
the decision has nothing to do with the fact that Crosby is getting $5 million.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Feb 3, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also true
Perhaps it would be more helpful for people to imagine that the $5 million is already in his bank account and he’s being paid zero dollars to play next season.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or they should ask themselves the question,
“So how much will Crosby be making if the A’s don’t sign Cabrera?”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not about Crosby making the money
It’s about the A’s spending the money.
Right now you’re getting X wins for $5.25 million or whatever Crosby makes. If Cabrera signs, you’re getting Y wins, which is replacing Crosby’s win total (completely, or close to it), for an additional $5 million. That’s $10.25 million for Cabrera, basically, unless somebody is willing to take Crosby and pay his salary (or give a quality prospect a la the Kotsay trade, in which case you’re getting Mystery Player + Cabrera for $10 mil, and that’s different).
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mentioning what Crosby makes is just obfuscating the issue
which is, “is it worth it for the A’s to pay $5 million for Y-X wins?”
Crosby could be making $100 billion next season— or, as I said, zero— and the relevant question would still be “is it worth it for the A’s to pay $5 million for Y-X wins?”
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
(and it should be noted that X can be a negative number...)
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Feb 4, 2009 6:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except the season hasn't actually started yet, so that's not even remotely true.
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
From the standpoint of assets and liabilities, it is completely true
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yours is a silly argument
On your post above:
The A’s have X. If Y-X is a large enough value to justify spending on Y, they should do it (or at least seriously think about it).
Ordinarily, the $5 million Crosby is owed is relevant in that it makes X larger. In this case, X is pretty close to zero. Given that we’ve spent $5 million on nothing, spending $10 million for Y makes sense if Y is enough of an improvement.
The only difference between the scenario PT describes and reality is that in reality the A’s have a potential to offload some of Crosby’s salary. That only serves to weaken your argument.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 3, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how any sane projection has Cabrera at 50 points of OPS higher than Crosby
Cabrera’s OPS was 60 points higher last year. When he was hitting in a great hitters park. And was a year younger (but, still, clearly declining).
I actually think they’d OPS about the exact same thing in Oakland, and I’m not convinced by Cabrera’s fluky good 2008 defense that he’s more than a couple runs better than Crosby with the glove.
I stand by my 1/2 win.
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now THIS is the argument that makes sense
If Cabrera is a 1/2 win improvement he isn’t worth 5 mil. If he’s a 2 win improvement he is.
Which he’s likely to be is what we should be discussing.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 3, 2009 8:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Park neutral wOBAs over the past three seasons
From StatCorner. I’ve converted the figures to Runs Above Average using this formula.
Cabrera:
.332 (1)
.338 (4)
.320 (-7)
Crosby:
.312 (-12)
.287 (-27)
.299 (-19)
Factor in defense, and I think the upgrade is more than the 1/2 win figure you’ve posited.
Bear in mind that, with Crosby, it’s also pretty safe to project that 200-300 PA could go to Pennington or Petit, which could increase the upgrade even more.
by CapgrasDelusion on Feb 3, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Grr
Meant as a reply to thejd44.
by CapgrasDelusion on Feb 3, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA has Cabrera about 6 runs better than Crosby on offense
which is closer than what you have here….but the defensive difference could easily make it a one win overall difference.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 4, 2009 6:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
That’s pretty much the issue in a nutshell.
My guess is that Cabrera will be about 1 win better than Crosby, so signing him for ~$5 million, but no more than that, is reasonable. But any projection of this sort has a large margin of error.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on Feb 4, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Projections
Which projections are you getting Cabrera being 50 points better from? I’m asking because I thought you’d said you favored CHONE, but that’s not what CHONE says.
by Nate on Feb 3, 2009 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
CHONE has the gap at 45 points
Marcel is about 50. I don’t know where ZiPS for Orlando Cabrera is, but it’s .640 for Crosby, which is about a 65 point gap from Cabrera’s Marcel.
Frankly, all the Crosby projections at fangraphs (not ZiPS) strike me as bizarrely optimistic. They’re assuming he returns to a level he hasn’t been at since 2005. I think he’s more likely to OPS .600 than .680.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I see what you're doing wrong.
CHONE’s weighted projections have the gap at 45 points. This would be the projections that have Cabrera (as a free agent) in a neutral park and Crosby at the Coliseum. CHONE’s park-neutral projections have them 20 points apart. Marcel doesn’t weight for park factors at all.
by Nate on Feb 3, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not? Is Marcel too impatient?
{Warning: homonym pun}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who're you calling a homonym,
you diphthong?
by Nate on Feb 3, 2009 9:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that thereth anything wong with that
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How onomonopoetic of you
My head is buzzing.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 3, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
tell Thindi to thay "Hi" to her Aunt Thybil
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 4, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Nonetheless— I don’t get it. The players’ respective hitting track records say they’re way more than 20 OPS points apart.
Like I said, I see the .640 from ZiPS as vastly more reasonable than any of the Fangraphs projections.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 9:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree...
… it’s as if the projection systems can’t fathom a player as terrible as Crosby being a major-league player, so they artificially inflate his batting statistics in order to make him a viable major-leaguer.
Crosby’s four-slash totals over the last three seasons:
2006: 229 avg / 298 obp / 338 slg / 636 ops
2007: 226 avg / 278 obp / 341 slg / 619 ops
2008: 237 avg / 296 obp / 349 slg / 645 ops
Yet, for some reason, Bill James, CHONE, and Oliver all project him at a 680+ OPS for 2009. PECOTA projects him at 660. Baseball HQ has him at 643.
Like Mr. Thomas, I think Bill James, CHONE, and Oliver are being unreasonably optimistic on Crosby. I’ll take HQ’s projection as the baseline, and hope Crosby can “overachieve” and reach the PECOTA projection. But, based on the last three years (nearly 250 G and 1200 ABs worth of data points), I don’t see where anyone comes up with a 680+ OPS for The Croz.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's regression to the mean, for you.
Any player that didn’t have Crosby’s contract/body/pedigree/ROY would have been banished to AAA a long time ago.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
by salb918 on Feb 6, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we're going to contend...
$10M for “ok” production is better than $5 million for negative production. Yes… that’s right… negative production.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Feb 3, 2009 8:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby doesn't actually provide "negative production" for his position
And Cabrera is pretty close to Crosby’s level. No reason to think his decline won’t continue – and maybe even be accelerated by a pitcher’s park – this year.
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you overrate Crosby. He's as horrible as anyone on this site has stated in their most
frustrated moment….and then some. He’s the worst player I’ve ever followed closely since Johnnie LeMaster. He’s like AJ Hinch or Angel Berroa would be if they were allowed to actually play. He would be a slightly above average AAA SS…if you took out all the prospects. I can’t at this moment think of anyone on the A’s who’s been remotely close to this bad.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 4, 2009 5:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at it this way...
When FA agency began Cabrera was looking to make $9-10 million annual. Oakland was willing to offer Furcal an average of $9.5 million annual. Plus, the A’s would have had to kick in most of Crosby’s salary to trade him, probably $3 million minimum. So at the start of the offseason Oakland was looking to invest over $12 million into upgrading SS. Now, even if they have to cut Crosby, they’re looking at less than that.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed, but it's also less of an upgrade considering it's Cabrera instead of Furcal.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But also less risk
1 year of Cabrera vs. 4 years of Furcal.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also true.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that depends on furcal's health
cabrera was more valuable the last two years.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Feb 3, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This would make a lot of sense if Ellis can't start the season
I hate giving up the draft pick and have never liked Cabrera but Cabrera/Crosby up the middle is vastly superior to Crosby/Petit or Penntington if Ellis isn’t going to be ready. I would be willing to put up with one black hole in the middle infield but if we are trying to compete we really can’t afford to have two… especially if the deal is $5m or less.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Feb 3, 2009 9:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
So true
If Ellis is not ready then Crosby can move to second and cabrera at ss.
by Arcman on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Reality check
In his 3 years in the minors and 5+ years in the majors, Crosby has played a grand total of 0 games ta 2B.
He’s huge, has a big windup (for an infielder) when he throws.
What basis do you have for thinking he can play 2B?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 9:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's an all-star 2B if you change his position in MVP 2005?
I dunno, I’m grasping at straws here.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You must have the Peter Gammons edition
Every day is just a little worse than the previous, that means every day is the worst day of my life.
by shooting4life on Feb 3, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the Nick Swisher edition
Where you get bored after awhile and edit all your guys to be 100 ratings :D
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
in the Gammons edition
Crosby is an MVP SS!
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 3, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on the MVP '07 mods
Crosby is one of the best SS in baseball.
Also, Kotsay is an absolute stud and Ellis isn’t especially good.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 3, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I had some game for xbox
that seemed to confuse Kotsay with Carlos Beltran
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 3, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Was Billy Beane on the cover?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 4, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
(said the monkey who made a front-page post advocating signing Orlando Hudson to play SS)
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Feb 3, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
O-Cab told the Yankees he'd be willing to play 2B for them
Bump him to 2B if Ellis needs extra time. Who knows, maybe Crosby will have his seasonal hot streak at the same time and build a little trade value.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i love those hot streaks
where he hits .250 with an obp above .300.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 3, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
3 for 12 with a walk!!!
Good times.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Get out of your fantasy land
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 3, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow wiggington 2yr/6mill TOTAL
to go to the orioles of all teams lol
back when he got non tendered he wanted casey blake type money
by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 3, 2009 9:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
lucky Orioles..
although, they need all the luck they can get.
That is such a steal for Wigginton, a guy who’ll hit 30+ HRs if plays a full season, AND hits for decent average as well (.270 to .280). I’ve been wishing the A’s would take a look at him this offseason, but oh well.
by charm3x on Feb 3, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wigginton would hit 30+ homers in a full season
only if he gets 600+ PAs against left-handed pitching
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 3, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe if he always faced teams that threw
Mulder, Zito, Lilly, Redman, Halama…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's about what he's worth
Also: Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but his name SHOULD be Wiggington. It sounds way cooler, when you pronounce it correctly.
"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt
by Philip Christy on Feb 3, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh....
In terms of depth, Id be happy to have him, but honestly Id rather roll the dice with another year of Crosby. If Crosby rebounds to be a +3-4 defender and a .675 OPS he is just as good, and at least there is still potential. Maybe it takes him 5 more years like Carlos Pena, but the 5% or less chance that he breaks out is more appealing to me.
I miss Chad God
by ChadGod on Feb 3, 2009 11:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree with this
Even though I’m willing to acknowledge that it probably is the best move from a pure “put the best players on the field” perspective.
Crosby can’t possibly get worse (knock on Crosby’s head). Cabrera isn’t going to get any better. Let’s give BoCro one last shot at respectability.
by HigherPie on Feb 3, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, it's his contract year.
He better perform for SOMEONE if he wants to stay in the majors. It might as well be us, since we’re already paying the five million.
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." -- Connie Mack
by GreenSocks on Feb 3, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If he CAN
The problem is, Crosby just isn’t good at hitting pitching that demands a “not my high school approach” approach.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry...
… but the odds of Bobby Crosby rebounding and becoming a decent player this year are about as good as the odds of T-Long rebounding this year and becoming an All-Star OF.
Bobby Crosby is ONLY on a major-league team because Beane misjudged and gave him a multi-year contract. If Croz didn’t have that deal, he would have been in AAA since the beginning of 2007 and we wouldn’t even be talking about him right now.
Bobby Crosby has proven that he is not the player we thought he was — he’s given us three long years of terrible, terrible performance, well over 200 games, well over 1100 ABs of far below-average production. And now… you want to take another chance on him. That’s crazy.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't T-Long out of baseball now?
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 4, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I quite agree
I think Crosby would have survived until last year even without a long-term deal, but there’s no question he’d have been non-tendered this offseason.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 4, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
June draft
If the A’s wait until after the June draft to sign Cabrera they would not lose the compinsation pick. In effect the A’s are giving Crosby a few more months to turn around his career, if he improves great if not Cabrera is the A’s SS on June 10th. That is if Cabrera is still unsigned. Which may be a big if.
by dougald1 on Feb 3, 2009 11:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
wat
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 3, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's saying that if Cabrera is still unsigned in June, we wouldn't lose a draft pick for signing him.
Because the draft will have already taken place.
I do’n tthink that’s likely.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is this a picture of cloud-cuckoo-land?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the monkey's just practicing his angkor management
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Feb 3, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nicely done
qotm
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Angora management
Ordering a nice sweater to keep out the cold?
by dougald1 on Feb 3, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no.
In terms of seeing something new on the field (even if it is new old) I like it. I still think Crosby can could be moved if the A’s eat a little of his contract. Regarding Cabrera—-all older players are a risk regardless. No one signs a player they know is going to decline beyond expectations, but sometimes it happens. On the flip side it seems he and Guillen didn’t get a long so well and maybe some of the decline had to do with the atmosphere—-similar to say Swisher.
I can see the argument for staying with Crosby and for signing Cabrera. I like the idea of a new albeit old face enough to give the guy 5 million—-especially since it would hopefully end the “blame it on Crosby” era.
For the record though I don’t believe that a SS will be the game changer for contention. I think it is all in the hands of the starting rotation and the deadly DL.
by WhiteElephant on Feb 3, 2009 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He can be moved if the A's eat all of his contract...
specifically, moved to the unemployment agency.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With 5.5 million dollars in hand...
do you think Crosby would have the audacity to file for unemploment?
Fun with suppositions.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Feb 3, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ya know, with all the crappy shortstops out there
I find it hard to believe that nobody would take Crosby. He’s not good, but, come on… Tony Pena Jr has a job.
by thejd44 on Feb 3, 2009 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But Tony Pena Jr. can at least pitch out of the bullpen
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Feb 3, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not anymore
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
adding depth to infield is good idea, but...
For the record though I don’t believe that a SS will be the game changer for contention. I think it is all in the hands of the starting rotation and the deadly DL.
+1
Obviously with the question marks over Crosby, Ellis and Chavez regarding their health and/or productivity in the coming seasons, and no real studs in the minors (right?) as potential backups, having O.Cabrera isn’t a bad idea.
But to compete in 2009 I think the money would be best spent on a starter, someone like Sheets.
by charm3x on Feb 3, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
odawg A's blurb in rotoworld
Orlando Hudson-2B- Diamondbacks Feb. 3 – 3:17 pm et
Speaking on the MLB Network Monday, free agent Orlando Hudson said he’s not close to a deal with any team.
“To be honest with you man, you know, the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets — all three of us have had some discussions,” Hudson said when asked about suitors. “And the Nationals also, the Washington Nationals. Yup, yup. So those four guys we are in conversation with and, you know, hopefully things work out in the end, but right now we’re discussing some things and see how things look.” The idea of signing with one of the New York teams looks like nothing more than wishful thinking from Hudson. He’d be quite an upgrade for the Dodgers and especially the Nats. Also, there’s been some talk about the A’s making a bid, likely with the intention of moving Mark Ellis to short.
Source: Washington Post
Related: Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Nationals
by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 3, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Could make sense if that surgery on Ellis' arm/shoulder
enables him to make those longer throws across the diamond.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Feb 3, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
better stronger faster
mark ellis a man barely alive.
by Future Ed on Feb 3, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We have the technology
Mark Ellis…the 5 to 5.5 Million Dollar Man (according to new contract terms).
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Feb 3, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty 100% certain he'd be playing short, not Ellis
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, hey guys (and gals)
Not to burst anyone’s bubble, but has anyone considered the fact that BoCro hasn’t exactly been the model of health over the last few seasons (2008 notwithstanding). I’d say its very likely that Bobby spends some kind of time on the DL, in which case it’d be awesome to have another player to fill in for that amount of time. Of course, if Cabrera is playing, then he is probably starting, and thus BoCro probably becomes the bonafide backup. Just a thought, but looking at it from that standpoint, it helps us “DL Proof” our team a little bit more. I really don’t want another season to be derailed by the DL.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 3, 2009 2:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
you say that crosby going to the dl like its a bad thing...
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 3, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And O-Cab, in addition to representing an upgrade over Crosby,
is also an upgrade over Pennington and/or Petit. One thing I like is that the A’s are shaping up to have a second unit of players that are closer to league-average than replacement level.
by CapgrasDelusion on Feb 3, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why the A's want O-Cab
When Crosby is clearly going to be the second coming of McGwire circa 1998.
But seriously, I wonder if Crosby would be a better player as a back-up? I have no statistical backup but don’t some players excel in a utility role and struggle as a starter? It could be that you see less of a utiltiy player and don’t realize how bad they are.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Feb 3, 2009 3:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think it's the other way around
rather than there being guys who excel in utility roles, there are guys who just aren’t good enough to play every day. They have skills to play in the majors, but they also have flaws…..the flaws just get hidden when you don’t see them every day.
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 3, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bobby Crosby would be awesome...
… in a bench role. In fact, I’d say he could almost be a replacement-level player if he were never allowed to enter a game. The A’s should mazimize Bobby Crosby’s value by leaving him on the bench.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 3, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't have him just sit on the bench
We should send him into the bullpen to be the warm up catcher, fire whoever the warm up catcher is and just like that you shaved 40 grand off his paycheck because you do not have to pay the back up catcher. He can also carry one of those metal in field dirt rake things in between innings (because that is the closest he will ever get to the SS position again) and you could fire that guy, just like that another 40 grand off the cost of the contract. During the first few innings he could also sell peanuts near the 3rd base line, save another 40 grand. I just saved the A’s 4% of Crosby’s contract.
Every day is just a little worse than the previous, that means every day is the worst day of my life.
by shooting4life on Feb 3, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
and you just got 3 people fired in the worst economy in years
good job ; -)
note the winking smiley face.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Feb 3, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the latter
If a shitty starter like Crosby has a nice 100 AB stretch, people talk about him turning it around for a while… and then 200 ABs later, his numbers look the same as ever and the talk stops.
If a shitty backup like Ben Zobrist has a nice 100 AB stretch, his season line looks frickin’ great!
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you are probably right
maybe i was thinking about career pinch hitters, which are more valuable in the NL. Mark Sweeney comes to mind. The latter is probably true for them as well though.
Another question, could Crosby play 3rd in a pinch or utility role? That would make hime “more valuble”, maybe even in a trade to a NL team who might need that versatility.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Feb 3, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The point that's been made
regarding how awful the free agent options are next year is well taken. Even so, I just can’t get behind a Cabrera signing. Not only are you spending $10M on shortstop play this year, you’re spending a first-round draft pick on it, too.
Orlando Cabrera posted an OPS+ of 84 last year, which is right in line with his career OPS+ of 86. That just isn’t much better than Crosby’s 76 (career 82), and defensively, they’re a wash at best; as hard to remember as it is, Crosby was a good defender before this year, and he’s a lot more likely to rebound than Cabrera is to improve.
I think thejd44 hit the nail on the head—he’s maybe a half-win better, and you’re giving up a ton to get him. No thanks. I’d rather bite the bullet and trade something of value to get something of value.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Feb 3, 2009 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Minor correction
The A’s 1st round pick is protected. signing Cabrera would cost them their 2nd round pick.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Against
Just for the simple fact that we would have to forfeit our 1st rounder to get him. Crosby will do just fine…
Wade Hines
by Wader on Feb 3, 2009 4:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
2nd rounder, and Crosby won't do fine (that doesn't mean we should sign Cabrera)
but otherwise…yeah.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wrong on both
crosby should go to japan…if jason botts can turn into a legend there, maybe there’s hope for crosby
by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 3, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where is this misinformation coming from? ESPN? Contra Costa Times? Monte Poole?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
People being unfamiliar with the exception to the general rule that Type A free agents cost a 1st rounder
But the Picard thing made me guffaw.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 3, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just confused as to how so many people know the "general rule" and not the exception
It’s particularly weird when you realize that 2nd round picks change hands a lot more often than 1st rounders (for the obvious reason that teams don’t like giving up first round picks very much).
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like Crosby but I don't want to lose the first round pick
There. I said it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 3, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Same here.
I, like, totally like our 1st round pick.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 3, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think we already lost it
when we rule 5’d ben copeland. but it was, like, totally worth it.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 4, 2009 1:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I'm just glad we used last year's on Inoa
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 4, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and we just used next years on wimberly
it’s like an i-owe-you sorta. and again, totally worht it
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 4, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I heard that the A's were considered the major suitors for Cabrera on...
the MLBN.
by IM4Oakgal on Feb 3, 2009 6:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Is that pronounced with an "a" or an "i"?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 3, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i was watching mlb network's hot stove report
they were talking about players still available. And one guy was talking about O. Cab and called him a “Superstar”. Don’t know what drugs this guy takes.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Feb 4, 2009 9:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think that was Barry Larkin
Barry Larkin is a little too excited to have a job on MLB Network… he needs to tone it down a little.
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 4, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Barry thinks he was a superduperstar
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 4, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad ones I presume
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 4, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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