who has had the green light from the manager to steal bases when he thought he could do so.

The Ten Times Bobby Crosby ran in 2008:

(all stats courtesy of B-R)

1) May 3rd, home game against Texas. In the bottom of the 6th, Crosby hit a 1-out RBI single to cut Texas’ lead to two. On a 2-2 pitch to Jack Hannahan, Crosby ran, but it ended up a strike ‘em out/throw ’em out DP. Effect on win probability: -8%, although some of that was Hannahan’s K.

2) May 11, a road game in Texas. It was a pitcher’s duel in Arlington and the score was tied 6-6. In the top of the 7th, Crosby led off the inning with a double. Ellis singled, which advanced Crosby to second. Ellis and Crosby pulled off a double-steal and Crosby came home, giving the A’s a go-ahead run. Effect on win probability: +5%.

3) May 13, away game in Cleveland. With one out in a game Cleveland was leading 1-0, Crosby hit a single, then moved to 2nd on a single by Ryan Sweeney. With Donnie Murphy batting, the runners went on 3-2. Murphy struck out and Crosby was nailed at 3rd. Effect on win probability: -13%. I have to think that both this and the prior CS were plays called from the dugout.

4) May 17, interleague play in Atlanta. A’s jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead on Hudson. Crosby legged out a weak grounder to SS. Hudson, probably distraught over having given up a hit to Crosby, promptly walked the next three batters, but before that, Crosby stole 2nd on a 2-2 pitch to Cust. Effect on win probability: +1%. Pretty much didn’t affect anything.

5) May 24, home game against the Red Sox. In the bottom of the 6th, with the A’s up 1-0, Crosby led off the inning with a single. The next batter, Cust, worked the count to 3-2. Can you tell what’s about to happen? K/CS. Effect on win probability: -7%.

6) May 27, home game against Toronto. Having reached on an error in the scoreless 1st, Crosby ran on a 1-2 pitch to Cust, but while Cust struck out, Crosby did NOT get caught. Effect on win probability: -2% for the K, but since Thomas struck out to end the inning, the steal was meaningless.

7) Same game as #6, this time was in the 4th inning. Crosby had reached on a 2-out RBI single, then decided not to wait for Cust to get 2 strikes before running, taking off on the 1st pitch and making it safely. Effect on win probability: 0%. Cust struck out 5 pitchers later.

8) May 30, deep in the heart of Texas. 1-1 game in Texas (I think they were blindfolding the batters to make it fair), Crosby led off the top of the 6th with a single. After Cust and Chavez failed to do anything useful with the bat, Crosby stole second when Emil Brown came up. Brown would ground out to end the inning. Effect on win probability: +2%

9) July 30, at home against the Royals. 3-3 game in the bottom of the 9th. Crosby walked with 2 outs. Crosby stole 2nd on a 1-1 pitch. Effect on win probability: +5%, but the hitter (Bankston) would line out to center on the next pitch, sending the game into extras.

10) September 21, hosting the Mariners. In the bottom of the 8th, the A’s had taken a 5-3 lead off of a Jack Cust home run. With 2 outs and the bases empty, Crosby walked, and then stole 2nd. After Crosby stole second, the M’s intentionally walked the hitter (Barton). Murphy would then fly out to end the inning. Effect on win probability: 0%

Overall, the WPA adjustment of the 10 plays involving Crosby attempting to steal were -17%, although three of these players were K/CS DPs, and should be adjusted accordingly. Still, it’s fair to say that Crosby’s running game, while decent on its own, did not actually help the A’s win any games in 2008

I remember in horror when Troy Tulowitzki was drafted and our hometown beat writers said he’d be as good as Bobby Crosby