Will we ever have a "Superstar"?

I have high hopes

for that carlos gonzales guy!

"...in baseball you wear a cap." -- george carlin

by Hot Cup Joe on Feb 22, 2009 5:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes. His name is Billy Beane!

Or am I?

My religion is A'slamic.

by WhoNeedsReligionWhenYaGotBaseball on Feb 22, 2009 5:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well I dunno how to edit my comment.
I wrote under Billy Beane… “half joking-half serious”

Funny thing is, he might be our biggest star.

My religion is A'slamic.

by WhoNeedsReligionWhenYaGotBaseball on Feb 22, 2009 5:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I just thought you were questioning whether you were Billy Beane.

...then Pennington takes over.

by Poppy on Feb 22, 2009 11:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

History would suggest it won't be a position player

Would you count Cahill and Anderson if they became as good as Brandon Webb and Jon Lester? Probably not. Greg Maddux and Johan Santana? Probably, but don’t wait up.

I don’t think there’s a potential superstar position player anywhere in the A’s farm system right now, unfortunately.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 5:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I just used Pujols as an example.

Sure I count pitchers. I dont think the Cardinals fans thought Pujols would be Pujols when they signed him. So Superstars can come from anywhere and sometimes unexpected.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 22, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The thing about pitchers is that there are LOT more

“all time goods” (Peavy, B. Webb, Lackey, Haren, Sabathia, Beckett…) than there are “superstars” – to me the only superstars still in the game are maybe Johan Santana, and I guess Randy Johnson (and his window was relatively short, in that he wasn’t that good for a while and hasn’t been a superstar-level pitcher for many years).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro (was)

by NateHST on Feb 22, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro was awesome.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

“I dominated the steroid era.”

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Feb 22, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Randy Johnson had a short window?

Tough crowd. By that definition there have probably only been six or seven superstar pitchers in history of baseball. Maybe fewer.

by jdr on Feb 23, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

+2

by LowcountryJoe on Feb 23, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe a better way to put it is that he

“wasn’t that great” for his first few seasons and also hasn’t been “that great” the last few.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 23, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We have a lot of potential "Good" players

Chris Carter
Adrian Cardenas
Sean Doolittle
Aaron Cunningham
Josh Donaldson
Jemile Weeks
Corey Brown

Any of those players could become “Superstars” if they live up to their full potential-that is, put up in the Majors the #’s they put up in the minors, especially Corey Brown and Josh Donaldson, as they both play premium defensive positions, and Brown is a good defensive CF. But each has flaws that will limit that from happening.

Still though, if Brown became a .270/.400/.550 guy while playing Plus Defense in Center field, I would have to say he’d be a Superstar. The problem is that he’d have to learn how to not strike out every other at bat for that to happen.

Chicago. Where the Dead can Vote. Where the Voters of Tomorrow are found in the Obituaries of Today.

by Zonis on Feb 22, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd even say those guys are all potential "very good" players

The jump to “superstar,” though is still high, and I wouldn’t want to bet on any of those guys.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Betting on any prospect to be a superstar is a great way to lose your shirt

Well, except maybe Matt Wieters. He’s pretty damn awesome.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

drool

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yup

by greendatitiz on Feb 25, 2009 7:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be disappointed if either Cahill or Anderson are only as good as Lester

Lester was a bit lucky last year, though he wasn’t bad. I think he is around a 4 ERA pitcher, though he’s young enough to get better. Cahill and Anderson are both being hyped as better than that.

by thejd44 on Feb 23, 2009 12:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're setting yourself up for disappointment

I’d be tickled pink to get a #1 and a league-average innings eater out of those two. Hell, I’d be happy to get that out of those two plus Gio Gonzalez.

I think the A’s have enough pitching prospects to fill out a (good) rotation. Maybe even with a number to spare. But that’s a far cry from expecting all or even most of them to work out.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't expect all or most to work out

But those two are, by far, the best of the bunch and both are close to the majors. We’re not talking about A-ball guys here. Barring injury, I think it’ll be a disappointment if either guy doesn’t perform better than Lester (who I think is ultimately just a hair above average anyway).

by thejd44 on Feb 23, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why would you bar injury?

Barring injury a priori would, like, double any pitcher’s apparent value.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, 16 wins and a 3.2 ERA would really be a disappointment

Sure, we can talk about the theory that they COULD both be the best pitcher in baseball, but the chances of that happening are close to zero. If ONE of them ends up doing what lester did last year, we should all be thrilled.

Stewart 7, Clemens / McNamee 1

by eastcoasta'sfan on Feb 23, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm understanding the point of this diary correctly

it’s not whether or not we have a player in the system capable of being a superstar, it’s whether or not the A’s would actually keep such a player instead of trading him or letting him walk. I’m inclined to say “no,” for as long as Beane runs the team. He’s just not going to be willing to hand out a contract of the length and dollars such a player requires.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 5:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Thats more of what I was trying to get it.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 22, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, then I'd say that depends a lot on the stadium issue

I do think that will affect whether or not the A’s can keep any of their own stars.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure it makes a difference.

The A’s could afford to keep Holliday at the end of this year, for example, but will they? I seriously doubt it. They most certainly could have afforded one of the big three as well. I think Beane simply doesn’t believe in contracts that long or expensive.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He did offer Giambi 6/90, IIRC,

which at the time was pretty "top of the line."

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not compared to 7/121

The A’s offer really wasn’t in the same zip code as the Yankees, and they wouldn’t consider waiving the no-trade clause to make him consider taking it, either.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 6:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True, to a point jeepers.

But the Yankees almost always end up “overpaying” for their FA signings. I think what Nico was saying is “for the A”s" that was a serious offer, especially for that time. It was like roughly 40% of what the payroll would be starting that following year.

If you were to equate it now, what do you think A’s fans would have to say about one player taking up that much of the payroll? Just curious……especially if the A’s end up trying to woo Holliday back as a FA/ pre-emptive offer deal.

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 22, 2009 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it was a legitimate offer

The Yankees way overpaid and that can happen, but in that case Beane made a sincere and legitimate effort to keep Giambi long-term.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Every free agent signing is an overpayment

except for the wounded ducks of the world, like Cust or Frank Thomas. That’s precisely why I don’t see Beane making one. He doesn’t believe it’s possible to get fair market value for a top-tier free agent.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 7:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Acquiring one and keeping one are different propositions

For example, the A’s kept (extended) Chavez, who had superstar ability. You can sometimes retain a player for fair market value.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Chavez was kept at well below market value

and it was the main reason he stuck around. Chavez didn’t even entertain the open market, and hired an inexperienced agent Billy could school, to boot.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that's total BS

I don’t think Dave Stewart got “schooled.” In fact, hindsight suggests Chavez is actually being overpaid and that had he hit free agency when eligible he would have been in trouble because he was deteriorating physically and statistically.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hindsight isn't a valid way to look at it.

A player coming off four consecutive Gold Gloves and OPS+ numbers of 134, 126, 127, and 128 would never have gone for 6/66 on the open market.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A player's health is a HUGE consideration

And it wasn’t hindsight where Chavez was headed physically. The A’s knew it, Chavez knew it, Stew knew it. Fans were probably the last to know how bad things were.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

HIs health didn't begin to really deteriorate until after he signed the deal.

I very much doubt it would have prevented him from a big payday, and I certainly don’t recall it being a point of discussion at the time the contract was signed.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If the A's knew that Chavez's current health issues were imminent (like you're suggesting)

and they signed him to his current contract anyways, then they quite possibly committed one of the stupidest mistakes in management history.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Feb 22, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They knew he had a pretty bad back

They may not have known the extent of his back + shoulder damage or how long Chavez would shun surgery.

But what I’m saying is that by the time Chavez would have hit free agency his condition was known more than at the time he signed the extension.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 23, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There was only a year difference between the two

and his walk year, although shortened by getting hit in the hand with a Damaso Marte fastball, was the best statistical year he ever had.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Hell, I can’t bring myself to shell out a monstrous contract in Out Of The Park Baseball.

My religion is A'slamic.

by WhoNeedsReligionWhenYaGotBaseball on Feb 23, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You play OOTP?

Come join our league — I’ll give you thejd44’s spot since he sucks and won’t actually take a team!

http://www.theguba.net/forum/index.php

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it was, "for the A's"

In that case, though, the A’s are never going to be competitive, because the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Giants etc are the teams that set the market, not the A’s.

40% of next year’s payroll would probably be $24M (assuming, VERY conservatively, a payroll of $60M). Holliday won’t cost that much, although he’ll be close to $20M annually. I think there’s zero chance the A’s will bring him back at that price.

As far as what the fans have to say about it, I think they’re very disappointed that the A’s never retain their players, and the attendance shows it. I don’t think AN is necessarily a representative sample of the people that “vote with their feet.” The kinds of fans that frequent this site are amazingly tolerant of losing those players, partly because they see the bigger picture, and partly because they actually like seeing the team blown up every year.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure where this notion that the A's can afford to keep Holliday at his market price is filtering in from

but it’s totally bogus. They can afford to keep him… in 2010. From 2011 onward he becomes a gigantic millstone grinding away at the depth of the A’s roster.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 8:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How so?

The A’s don’t exactly have a whole bunch of expensive commitments coming up in the next few years. Suzuki and Duke are the closest things to one, and Duchscherer is very expendable.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Take a look at the A's roster and count how many players hit arbitration in 2011

It’s a huge number. Let’s optimistically assume the A’s are in a position to decline options on both Chavez and Ellis in 2011, so those guys only cost the team $3.5M. Holliday is, I think, going to require at least Mark Teixeira money and probably more than that (on account of him being better). So that’s $26M already spent.

Jack Cust and Michael Wuertz are going to be 3rd year arbitration players. I’m marking them off as $8M and $3M respectively. Rob Bowen probably gets released before then.

Santiago Casilla and Chris Denorfia are 2nd year arb players. I’m marking off $3 million for them. Dana Eveland will be a “first year” player who was previously a Super Two; I expect him to make around $3.5M. Joey Devine, same situation, probably $3.5M too if he’s the closer as I expect. Rajai Davis probably gets released.

Travis Buck, Jack Hannahan, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, Daric Barton, Dallas Braden, Sean Gallagher, and Chris Schroder are all first-year arb players that year. I won’t count any of the various minor league deals, and we can probably write off Schroder and Hannahan as well. But… the rest of those guys look like about $18M to me.

12 more players at league minimum is about $5M more. Add it up— you’ve got $70M spent on your roster and you haven’t signed anyone at all as a free agent. It just gets worse the next few years as that huge bolus of first-year players gets more and more expensive and other guys start entering the “real money.”

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless you keep trading guys like Gallagher, Braden, Barton and Buck in 2011,

and replacing them with league minimum guys like Leon/Hunter, DLS/Ross, Carter/Doolittle, and Dixon/Brown while restocking your farm system with the trades. It’s not inconceivable.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And more consistent with the A's past behavior, to boot.

I can’t see any scenario in which the A’s simply re-up all of those players.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Bob Geren and Ken Macha both enjoy jai lai.

by CarGon's Jock on Feb 23, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s really worked out well for the Marlins, hasn’t it?

When you force yourself to trade players as salary dumps, you kill your leverage. No leverage = crap returns for your players.

Holliday might project as a 4.5 WAR player for the next seven years, so that signing him to a $22.5M a year contract makes fiscal sense— but it makes no sense whatsoever if you’re losing 1-2 wins every year off the rest of your roster by having to dump salaries of cost-controlled players.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't call the Beckett/Lowell deal a crap deal

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Feb 22, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Given what they gave up, the return they got for those guys was objectively crap

A team with leverage probably could have gotten multiple additional good prospects included in that deal.

The fact that they lucksacked out with Hanley Ramirez doesn’t excuse the move. In the case of the Marlins, though, it pushes the responsibility for the move onto Loria and not the GM. Billy Beane can’t plead that excuse if he puts himself into his own hole voluntarily.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 12:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose you're right

But at the time Lowell was seen as being way over the hill already and Beckett couldn’t seem to stay healthy and productive at the same time. I’d say the Red Sox lucked out as well in that both of these players turned a corner.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Feb 23, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The two world championships and consistenly competitive team don't suck, either.

Larry Beinfest is one of baseball’s most underrated GMs, if you ask me.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 6:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those world championships were won under a different salary regime

The relevant years for the Marlins are 2005-2008, since that’s when they’ve been actually dealing players for pennies on the dollar to dump salary. In that period, they’ve averaged 79 wins a season.

And, off topic but still worth noting, they were astoundingly lucky to win 2 WCs. Over the course of the franchise, they’ve made the playoffs twice in 16 years and never won a division title.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bite your tongue

The Marlins are the exception that every good Yankee fan can hold up as an example as to why the big market teams shouldn’t have to share any money.

by jdr on Feb 23, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand this comment at all

The state of the Marlins as a franchise is hardly an argument for the status quo.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They won a World Series with a $50M payroll

and they got back in 2003 after nuking the 1997 championship team. The salary regime change in Florida happened after Wayne Huizenga got out at that time.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, it didn't

and I was wrong, it actually happened in 2006, not 2005, per Cot’s. Loria bought the team prior to the 2003 season, but he didn’t immediately begin raping it.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, it did.

Huizenga sold to John Henry shortly after they won the World Series, but not before he destroyed the team, making it the first ever to lose 100 games the year after winning a World Series. Henry sold the team to Loria in January of 2002 without doing much of anything with it (other than letting Dombrowski do a great job of starting the rebuilding process).

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So, we're agreed that dumping salaries makes teams horrible?

And that it would be a really bad idea for the A’s to end up in a position where they had to do that?

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 24, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess.

The A’s and Marlins both do it, just on different scales. Neither have been particularly good the last four years, so maybe you’re on to something.

Or maybe teams that have to do it and do it intelligently are able to mix in some periods of success, like the way the Marlins rebuilt their team from ‘98-’02, and the way the A’s are (hopefully) rebuilding their team from ’07-?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 24, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, the A's recent failures don't have much to do with salary dumping

although you could probably blame the failure to win the division in 2004 on it, thanks to the incomprehensibly foolish Lilly-Kielty trade. 2007 and 2008 were more the product of a thin team and a run-down farm system. The Haren and Swisher deals weren’t salary dumps, and everyone knew Beane didn’t have to move them if he didn’t get a knockout offer.

Incidentally, I should point out that I don’t think dumping salaries of post-free agency players (Loaiza, etc) is necessarily a bad idea (though it can be a bad idea if you’re forced to take bad deals for lack of leverage). They’re not institutionally underpaid.

Paying $5 million less to get $5 million less value is a wash. It’s paying $2 million less to get $5 million less value that kills your team.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 24, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Over the same period, the A's have averaged 83 wins a season.

Just sayin’.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 9:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Except the Marlins have managed to get fantastic prospects back for their "dumps"

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 12:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

They hit the jackpot on a lottery ticket with Ramirez, picked up a risky outfielder and a flailing pitching prospect for Miguel Cabrera, and scored Ricky Nolasco for Juan Pierre from a stupid franchise.

That is, as far as I can tell, about it. Given what they’ve coughed up in the process, they’re barely running in place. They’ve managed to maintain the team at roughly .500 while keeping the payroll at rock bottom. Forgive me for failing to view that as an exceptional accomplishment.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Aside from that, how was the show Abe?

They hit the jackpot on a lottery ticket with Ramirez, picked up a risky outfielder and a flailing pitching prospect for Miguel Cabrera, and scored Ricky Nolasco for Juan Pierre from a stupid franchise.

So in the past few years, they’ve nabbed one of the 5 best players in baseball, one of the top 10 prospects in baseball, a top pitching prospect who put up pretty good peripherals as a 23 year old last year, and another above average SP. But other than that…

by Danny on Feb 23, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at what they gave up

The #2 pitcher in the Cy Young balloting in 2007, a potential Hall of Fame hitter, and a pretty damn good, albeit injury-prone, third baseman. (And a shitty outfielder.) Like I said, they’re running in place.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

PaulThomas just used Cy Young voting in an argument.

Excuse me while my head explodes.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, so that was sort of lazy

But Cy Young voting is generally pretty accurate. The last significant cock-up was Colon getting the AL award in 2005. Basically as long as someone doesn’t rack up a bunch of undeserved “wins,” they get it right or close to it.

It’s orders of magnitude more sane than the MVP voting.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but when you're essentially on orders to spend as little money as possible

Continuing to get high level prospects from various systems is pretty good, considering that everybody basically knows that you HAVE to deal Player X who is going to be high priced sooner than later.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, their leverage is only reduced, not nonexistent

There’s always a certain degree of leverage when you have players that any team would want, because you can play them off against each other.

In any event, I’m not arguing that Florida’s management is bad (they aren’t).

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Santaigo and Denorfia won't be on the A's in 2011

by thejd44 on Feb 23, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

two words: Ryan Sweeney

Let me dream…
you never know

by stranahanahan on Feb 22, 2009 6:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

two words

Jack Hanahan

what have i got myself into this time... http://damiansthirtyyearchallenge.blogspot.com/

by alea iacta est on Feb 22, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"He's so famous and beloved, no one even spells his name right!"

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bring back Jose and Ozzy

Oh yea baby!

"You Went Full Retard, Man - Never Go Full Retard." --Kirk Lazarus

by Ovale Fan on Feb 22, 2009 6:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes

But a very qualified yes. First in foremost we’d need to actually have said player in the first place which is a bit difficult. Whether we’d keep him would depend less on whether we’d could afford him in a vacuum-like environment, because we can. It depends on the rest of the budget during the life of the contract, whether signing him would cripple us in developing a balanced lineup. It depends on the rest of the roster and whether during the life of the contract whether we’d have a serious chance at competing. And it depends on the player wanting to be here and potentially accepting a lot, but less than maximum value. Whether we’d trade said player during year 5 or 6 would depend on those issues and what’s being offered in trade. This is why I could see us making a run at Holliday, though we’d never try to even hint at a willingness to engage in a bidding war.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Feb 22, 2009 7:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hell, we could have Pujols on our team

But unless you were an A’s fan, you’d never know how good he was. I think the top-tier players are all just really good players, and the only thing that separates them into “Superstars” is whether or not ESPN decides to glorify them.

Can you really imagine Cust or Holliday or anybody on an A’s team hitting 40 HR and having 120 RBI, and an ESPN announcer saying anything other than some bullshit about how “Player X is quietly having a good year.”

Yeah, it’s quiet because Baseball Tonight is 40% Yankees, 30% Red Sox, 20% WTF is John Kruk and Steve Philips arguing about? and 10% HR highlights. And I know this isn’t really what you’re post was about (whether or not we’ll ever keep a player like that), but with bias like that, we can have good players, but they’ll never reach that “Superstar” level.

by NateHST on Feb 22, 2009 7:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but just look at Pujols' numbers year in and year out

“Superstar” doesn’t refer to how much attention you get; it refers to how great a player you are.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree

Pujols is absolutely amazing.

But when I think of “Superstar,” I think of somebody that commands front page attention-players that literally bring media and fans, and I think ESPN makes or breaks that level of stardom. Think about Bonds, back when Pedro Gomez was basically Bonds’ shadow. And I’m aware that Bonds was setting all kinds of records at the time.

But I still say that being a “Superstar” isn’t just about putting up great numbers, but also about how large of an effect they have on the team, its market, its fanbase, etc.

by NateHST on Feb 22, 2009 8:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If ESPN coverage is a barometer,

then the A’s will never have a superstar and Brett Tomko just became one.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 22, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There are SOME players who get "superstar treatment" based on where they play

But last I checked, St. Louis wasn’t exactly ESPN’s favorite town. Pujols still gets attention.

by thejd44 on Feb 23, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Superstars

To Wit: Pujols, A Rod, POSSSSSSIBLY ManRam, and great pitcher with ridiculous K totals (Pedro back in the day, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana).

As for the argument that an A’s superstar would be just ok in the first year… Pujols tore up the league his first year, as did A-Rod in his first FULL season (he did have about 200 AB’s prior), as did Manny, and Pedro was pretty good in his first seasons. I think pitchers are a bit more of a mixed bad when it comes to breaking out in their first season or a few seasons after that. It seems to me, though, that a genuinely superstar hitter is likely to destroy the bigs as soon as he gets there. Thus, I think we’d know if we had a superstar, and Beane would be a lot more likely to keep him (a la signing Chavvy to a long term contract. And no, I’m not trying to say he’s a superstar).

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 22, 2009 7:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

+1

The true superstar position players almost always kill it right out of the box. Miguel Cabrera is another good example, although he may have (or may be in the process of) eaten his way out of superstardom.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 22, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Teams try insanely hard to keep superstars

They tend to get extensions in the first couple of years that buy one or two years of FA. Pujols will spend at least 10 years with the Cards because they were quick to act. Hell, Hanley is staying with the Marlins of all teams because he’s too good for Loria to trade him. If the A’s end up with a true superstar, they’ll lock him up a la Longoria or they’ll try their very hardest to reup him a la Pujols or Hanley. It’s rare that an ARod or a Beltran or a Bonds hits the open market. So I would say the A’s will, if they manage to develop one, retain a superstar.

As for the NSJ dream that the A’s will go after a superstar like Justin Upton on the open market, I doubt it. I might be supportive of the concept, but truth be told I just can’t see the A’s able to do it. It’s highly unlikely the A’s will be able to sign Holliday let alone a guy who’ll not know much of Oakland or the team.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Feb 22, 2009 9:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Oakland, no

San Jose maybe but 32,000 seats do not help.

by calas on Feb 22, 2009 9:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't matter if you have 32,000 seats or 75,000 seats if only 15,000 are going to show up

by thejd44 on Feb 23, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday

So yes we will have one this year.

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Feb 22, 2009 10:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Draft Dustin Ackley

and we will

Clear its radiance shine...

by ATarHeel on Feb 22, 2009 10:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Short of an injury or a horrible junior season, there's zero chance that he'll be available when the A's pick

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2009 12:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Id be happy if we could keep them..

for maybe 2-3 years after they are eligible for FA. I mean if we bring a kid up at 22-23 and keep him for 8 years that’s good enough for me. Since they will have played their prime with us.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 12:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Also.

Do any of you think he Wolf had been the owner during the 2003 season on, we coulda had the money to spend to try and sign Tejada or Hudson. Were the previous owners really that cheap?

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 12:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think it went beyond that

Alot of people back then said Hudson was not a good person to lock up long-term. Because he throws with maximum effort everytime, and because he isn’t a big guy, that throwing really hard at max effort would break his body down quickly. (Some people say the same thing about Lincecum.)
The A’s probably had a pretty good idea of Tejadas’ connections to PEDs.

by skalordes on Feb 23, 2009 1:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is probably the best defense.

It can be argued, perhaps convincingly, that we don’t know because the A’s have never had the opportunity to keep a true superstar in the Beane era. Won’t be true after this year unless Holliday totally tanks, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Feb 23, 2009 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also Hudson had injury problems with his obliques.

which is not a good sign when betting on a pitcher to stay healthy for the length of an extended contract

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Feb 23, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats not really my point tho.

I’m not debating if they should have signed him. But rather could they have if he was healthy.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Could they have?

Sure.

Would it have been a good idea, given the budget that was in place? Probably not.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Then why didnt they?

I dont think his health was a deterrent. I think they were to cheap.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess you could call it cheap if you wanted.

But I don’t see the good in paying one guy as much as Hudson makes when the team payroll is $60M.

"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."

by mikev on Feb 23, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So we should have a 90 mil payroll?

:)

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why ignore health?

Its pretty important and IRC durability was one of the reasons that Beane cited in keeping Zito.

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Feb 23, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are missing the point.

Its not about should they have. But more could they have.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Feb 23, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Billy will ever pursue a long term deal

with a pitcher with Hudson’s health profile, regardless of payroll. That’s the point.

Beane even said at the time he “could have” kept Hudson and Mulder with current payroll, but only by ripping apart so many other key pieces (e.g., trading Chavez, Durazo, Zito…) that it would not have been a good idea.

Yet even with double the payroll I don’t think Beane would sign a pitcher with an injury history to a long-term contract that wasn’t a financial steal for the team.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 23, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

even more to the point

I don’t think Beane would sign a pitcher ~~with an injury history to a long-term contract~~- that wasn’t a financial steal for the team.

long term contracts for pitchers=a really bad idea

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Feb 23, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good thing we didn't sign any of our previous "Stars"

All their contracts suck..

by skalordes on Feb 23, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how CC's will work out

The crazy part is that if he wants he can leave after 3 years and if he has health problems or whatever he can stay.

by Lovejoy on Feb 24, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Going round in circles

You seem to be contradicting yourself.

“Hudson had injury problems with his obliques”

“could they have if he was healthy”

“Sure”

“Then why didnt they?”

“Why ignore health?”

“Its not about should they have. But more could they have.”

by DeJay on Feb 24, 2009 6:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Shooting stars

Through out the history of the A’s they’ve never kept their star players. As a long time fan it would be nice if just once they could keep a great player but I won’t hold my breath. The A’s are the ultimate “rooting for laundry” team. The only way it will ever change is with a salary cap.

by sirbed on Feb 24, 2009 1:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs