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Overpaid Mark Ellis?

I think it was pretty much assumed around baseball that Orlando Hudson is both a better hitter and nearly equal if not better fielder than Mark Ellis. In addition, Ellis's injury was deemed more serious and would cut into his salary demands even more so.

So what resulted, Ellis instead resigned with the A's for 2 years and around 11 million. Seemingly a good deal for both sides at the time.

However, when you see now that Hudson can be had for less than 5 million for 1 year, you have to think two things: 1) The A's overpaid Ellis (albeit by not a grosse amount), and 2) Ellis actually benefited this offseason by having injured his shoulder, however odd that may seem.

Anyone else agree with my premise? I realize we are dealing with a bit of revisionist history, but it's fun to speculate about.

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Hudson

I believe that according to a few metrics Hudson’s defense is in decline mode now and that Ellis is the superior defender. Also, Hudson has been putting up his offensive numbers in the inferior league (not to mention the NL West as well) since leaving Toronto so there’s no guarantee he’s that much of an upgrade over Ellis offensively either. I’d take Ellis over Hudson, even in hindsight.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Feb 18, 2009 4:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I’d take Hudson over Ellis.

The Ultimate Opportunist

by Rated-R Superstar on Feb 18, 2009 4:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'd take hudson over crosby

does that count?

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Feb 18, 2009 4:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ellis is worth every penny...He is our club leader

I agree, Hudson is probably a better individual player, but that does not mean he is a better player for this team. When Beane re-signed Giambi he talked about how he loved the HRs RBIs, walks but what he missed most about him was his influence in the club house – and I think Ellis has the same qualities.

I have always seen Ellis as our #2 hitter in the lineup – I hope he there opening day.

Go A’s

by ryanmoser on Feb 18, 2009 4:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Whether Hudson is even the better individual player depends a lot

on how he recovers from injury. I wonder if some of the surprisingly tepid interest in Hudson is similar to the concerns about Sheets (later revealed to be worse than initially reported). Maybe Hudson isn’t recovering as well as one would hope/expect?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 18, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

my impression

With wrist injuries it takes a year or so for the player to get back to what they once were. Whether his surgeries were successful is another question.

by Lovejoy on Feb 19, 2009 7:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Orlando Hudson is bizarrely worse than Mark Ellis as a fielder

Probably 20 runs a season worse. They’re not even in the same frigging ballpark.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 18, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good thing he hits well enough to earn a gold glove!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 18, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed

Hudson’s reputation as a gold-glove 2B really is a carryover from his time with Les Jays Bleus, when he was definitively an above-average defender. Since moving over to the D-Backs, Orlando’s defense appears to have become very average according to FanGraphs (note: take defensive metric statistics with a large grain of salt).

Since neither Ellis nor Hudson is a middle-of-the-order type hitter (i.e., a Chase Utley, Robby Alomar circa 1993-2000, Jeff Kent circa 1998-2007), I’ll take the 2B who has been more “productive” at preventing runs over the last three years. Ellis has been about 10-12 runs better than average defensively since 2006; Hudson has been about 2-3 runs worse than average defensively since 2006.

(Other thing to consider here is that Orlando Hudson seems to suffer some sort of season-ending injury every year; now, these may just be freak accidents, but staying healthy is, in some ways, a skill that certain players have and others do not. I’d rather not pay Hudson for worse production if he’s going to end up on the DL in September and October.)

"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle

by Uncle Charlie on Feb 19, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Only when you look at Fangraphs...

There are two sets of fielding data that analysts use: Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) and STATS. Historically, UZR was always based on the STATS data. But when Fangraphs added UZR to their site, they used the BIS data for it. The switch in data set seems to have really hurt Hudson.

Here are Hudson’s defensive ratings using different metrics: STATS UZR (sUZR), BIS UZR (bUZR), and Dewan’s /- (/-)


Year bUZR sUZR +/-
2005 +6 +15 +20
2006 -4 +4 +13
2007 -2 +16 +20
2008 -6 +2 -4

Keeping in mind that Dewan’s system is based on plays rather than runs (and the average play at 2B is worth less than a run), it seems like Dewan and the STATS based UZR are in agreement. This is interesting because Dewan’s system is based on the BIS data.

To me, Hudson looks like an above average offensive 2B who should be at least average with the glove. He’s no Ellis, but he’s a good player. And if 2008 was just a flukey down year with the glove rather than an immediate cratering, he would be pretty close to Ellis in value.

by Danny on Feb 19, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

where did you find the stats UZR?

That set of bUZR vs. +/- is very strange…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Feb 19, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

From MGL

In a comment at the Book blog.

by Danny on Feb 19, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think tha-- MNNNNAAAHHH

Dang, didn’t quite beat the bUZR.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

pcUZR

Patrol Craft Ultimate Zone Rating

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 19, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

To do what he did was simply irresponsible to the player market, and the MLBPA must be having a fit right now. As are all other middle infielders.

Mark, you bastard. What’s your f’n problem?!

Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"

by Poppy on Feb 19, 2009 12:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

His problem is he isn't a greedy bastard like a lot of players around the league are.

There is still such a thing as loyalty left in this game. Not much, but it’s still there, and I think Billy and Mark have that mutual respect for the other that allowed this deal to happen. I don’t think Ellis is being overpaid at all. In fact, I think most would agree he’s being underpaid….Go Mark!

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 19, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who?

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 19, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The funny thing about that article

is that even though the author feels that Ellis was almost criminal in taking such a “terrible” deal, he currently received a better deal then any other free agent 2Bmen, and the biggest 2Bmen on the free agent market – Hudson, Durham, Grudz – are still looking for jobs. Might have been chance, but Ellis and his agent are looking pretty smart now.

by AsFanInLA on Feb 19, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Especially considering how Ellis' value would have been compromised

by the timing of his injury.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bite your lip

  Ellis is the man. Team leader and professional leader in the club house. Hudson is a good player but they are pretty much the same type of player good defender and average hitter.

by Arcman on Feb 18, 2009 5:34 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like Ellis

but his OPS has been in decline since ’05—-which statistically looks to be a slight aberration compared to other seasons.
His AVG was the lowest career-wise last year at .233.
His glove is great, it would be golden were his bat a little better (not fair but true)—-he has accumulated a mere 40 errors since ’02.
From my calcs (total errors/games played) he makes an error in .0523% of his games or 8.473 per season (.0523.X 162).
This is mostly due to high counts in ’02 & ’03. Though recent seasons have been shortened.

Hudson has been increasing his AVG & OPS consistently since ’02
His highest OPS being in ’08 at .817
He has accumulated 66 errors (+26 of Ellis) since ’02, though he has played in 100 more games than Ellis since ’02.
He makes an error in .0763% of his games or 12.36 per season.
His errors have been pretty consistently between 9 & 12 a season.

Offensively our team has been dead which makes me in favor of Hudson’s numbers—-though I wonder what the expansive Coliseum grounds might do to them.

Defensively it is clear that Ellis has an edge and has actually become a better defender over his career.

Overall, I am not sure there is enough disparity to prefer one to the other; especially not if the difference is $500,000 a year.
I think Ellis gets the edge for his presence and years of service to the team but I do hope he brings back a little more of his stick this season…..I don’t see .233 as acceptable regardless of how often he gets on base in total.

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 18, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like Ellis

I think the best part of the deal is keeping a familar face on the field for the fans and a good teammate/vetran leader in the clubhouse.
   Some of us have learned to root for the jersey and not the names but people like my wife tend to root for players that stick around (For better or for worse her favs are Crosby, Chavez, and Ellis).
   I also think Ellis was smart to take the deal, if he tested the market he might still be a FA. Plus he is not that great of a hitter and is somewhat fragile/unlucky.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Feb 18, 2009 5:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ellis very wisely signed an extension with the A's

instead of testing the market — which likely would have been crappy for him as well as so many other players.

by OaklandSi on Feb 18, 2009 5:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hudson is the product of poor market judgement

Of course, so is pretty much every FA this offseason who didn’t sign right off the bat. All speculation, I believe he could have received around $10 mil if he had signed by December. However, noone saw this coming so I don’t blame them.
In last year’s offseason, Ellis is worth every penny, if not more.

by stranahanahan on Feb 18, 2009 5:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with the premise...

…in that it presumes a crystal ball was available to foresee the future of the off-season market being as weak as it has become. Qualifiers like “at the time” are kind of like “when healthy”, and are the true indicators. At the time it was deemed a good deal and we really don’t have any reason to question it yet.

I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup

by UncleLeo on Feb 18, 2009 6:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Tim Hudson's not a 2b silly billy

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Feb 18, 2009 6:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I don't understand where this notion that Orlando Hudson

is a good fielder comes from. He has been average to below average ever since he became a Diamondback.

by joeiz on Feb 18, 2009 8:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ellis is a better player than Hudson, and worth every penny of the contract

As long as his latest injury hasn’t totally drained him of his ability. Even at last year’s performance levels he’s worth the money he’ll be making.

by thejd44 on Feb 18, 2009 10:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Solid

Mark Ellis deserved gold glove in 2007. He has the ability to hit over .300 for a season, with nearly 20-homer pop. Hudson may be the flashier player, but Ellie’s all-around solid and he’s been with this team since 2001. He’s also clutch. I’ll never forget his three-run homer off Eddie Guardado in the 2002 playoffs vs. the Twins. The A’s don’t get to keep many players long-term, and I applaud this signing. Wouldn’t have changed it.

These clothes are good enough to drink in, and so be these boots, too.

by RayFosseRules on Feb 19, 2009 12:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

If he were clutch that would have been a five-run homer!

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Feb 19, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't disagree with your conclusion ...

but Ellis has only hit .300 once in his career and hasn’t even come close to it in any other season. I think it’s fairly safe to assume he is unlikely to hit .300 again …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 19, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

And I would be thoroughly happy if he hit .275 which has been a more consistent mark for him.
Also the 19 HRs was the closest he came to 20….the next closest is 13….realistically i think he is more of a 12 homer guy.

but I’ll take .276 12 HRs and 4-6 errors any day of the week from our 2B position—-so I applaud the signing.

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 19, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait - you'll take 4-6 errors any day of the week?

Jack Cust for SS!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe the 12 HRs a day would offset the 4-6 errors

if so, then I’d play Cust at SS for sure!

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 19, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cust can - he's THAT talented!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be that good too if I were on the field.

I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup

by UncleLeo on Feb 20, 2009 5:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ellis has pretty much had two All-Star years

of course, his shoulder is a bit questionable now, but probably not enough to warrant a switch to overrated Orlando. Plus, Ellis has the bonus of being on the A’s long enough that some fans have grown attached. I’d rather keep Ellis, all other things being equal.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 19, 2009 7:01 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ellis RULES!

Biased? Hell yes. Don’t care what Orlando Hudson could do to improve the lineup, it’s the D that bothers me. Ellis runs roughly a 10-12 point uptick in fielding percentage; something our young starters will desperately need to help bail out of potential jams.

With the A’s putting Cust/Giambi in the field, Ellis is the better defender to help swallow that huge hole on the right side of the infield. Plus, as a trusted veteran defender, our young guns will be much more at ease trying to induce ground balls his way knowing if it’s close, Ellis picks it up.

On top of that Ellis gave us 100 more innings than Hudson last year and still held a higher fielding percentage. Hudson’s numbers like 9, 13, 11 bother me in the “E” column while Ellis’ at 2,5,4 are much more reassuring.

It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.

by ru155 on Feb 19, 2009 7:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure if I should even post here..

because I’m so incredibly biased that my opinion counts for NOTHING. but whatever.
{tries to be objective}
{fails}

Anyway. first of all, WTH???

Orlando Hudson is both a better hitter and nearly equal if not better fielder than Mark Ellis.

I agree with the better hitter part, I guess. but a better FIELDER?? not so much. He’s nowhere close to equal, and definitely not better. I don’t really know where you’re coming from there.

Well… I’m uncreative. so.. here’s what I agree with.

Ellis is the man. Team leader and professional leader in the club house.

Ellis is worth every penny…He is our club leader
I think the best part of the deal is keeping a familar face on the field for the fans and a good teammate/vetran leader in the clubhouse.

all those quotes say the same thing… oh well.
for the stat proof, just read WhiteElephant’s post, I’m too lazy to quote it. I’m pretty much talking about defense here, I really hope his bat gets better next season.
and of course,

Ellis RULES!

He’s a great defender and a great presence in the clubhouse. His defence saves runs, which is definitely needed. and he CAN hit well, he just appeared to have forgotten last season, and maybe that surgery will help him remember and how NOT to hit so many popups.
I would pick Ellis over hudson, no question about it.

^ all of that, and you think he’s overpaid??? NO. For his sheer awesomeness in defence etc. I think it’s a good amount of money, although I would most likely say more. ;) (millions of dollars… I so wish I played baseball. you play a game and become a millionaire.)

But again, so biased this means nothing.

Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40

by #14fan on Feb 19, 2009 10:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

He's a unicorn. End of discussion.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, he's not. Thtop perpetuating the mythunderthtanding.

Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"

by Poppy on Feb 19, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thatch totallee aweshum, yo!

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 19, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Technically...baesed on fielding percentage

they are more or less equal. I don’t understand the perception that Ellis is phenomenally better but he is clearly not a lesser defender as stated above.

Hudson’s career fielding percentage is .985
Ellis’ career fielding percentage is .989

Are people really suggesting that .004% constitutes some major difference?

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 19, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More than fielding percentage

I think people are looking at the play-by-play defensive data, as well as considering scouting reports/reputation.

by el generico on Feb 19, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I told you I was biased.

I don’t recall every saying anything bad about Unicorn. But his defense ROCKS. I think… maybe range has a part in this? Ellis goes after any ball coming his way, etc. and most of the time completes the play. However (now I haven’t seen Hudson play really, so I’m just pretty much just making this up, I’m probably wrong) if Hudson has less range, he don’t go after as many balls, and he has less chance of making an error, which reflects on the fielding percentage. I mean, a guy could just stand there and not go anything except the balls that are pretty much right at him, and he would have a 1.000 fielding percentage because he would never commit an error. but that doesn’t make him a good fielder. fielding percentage isn’t everything.

just making it up as a go along, trying to sound relatively smart.

but none of this matters really, because Nico is right. ;)

Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40

by #14fan on Feb 19, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i accept your bias. Mark is pretty much the most kick-ass Unicorn ever.

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 19, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Any argument based on a stat as hopelessly flawed as fielding percentage

is, ipso facto, not “technical.”

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 19, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

no more flawed than

basing it on zero statistical data…..which is pretty much the case in all comments in this thread….

"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise

by WhiteElephant on Feb 19, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's not true -

I have studied unicorns, read data about unicorns, and looked at “regression-squared” analysis of “unicorn tendencies” over time.

And I have concluded that Mark Ellis is very very good and that I like him a lot.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Range - Ellis gets to so many more balls than most 2Bmen do

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yea but those balls he reaches up the middle

Dont really matter because his throws take so long to make it to first the batter already has a single.

by pbra17 on Feb 19, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not true, actually

Good jump + quick release = usually gets the runner by half a step.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 19, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Reaching balls up the middle isn't a problem for most men, I would presume...

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 19, 2009 6:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

lol

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Feb 20, 2009 4:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your sig makes that even funnier

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Feb 20, 2009 6:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

LMFAO!!!!!!!!

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 22, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not Hudson v. Ellis

I think I may have created an either or standard here. When Ellis is worth 11 mil guaranteed and Hudson is worth 3.6, I think there is not enough talent difference to say that the A’s did not in fact over pay. I agree that at the time it looked like a good deal, but as it unfolded we probably could have signed Ellis for something like 2.5-3 mil guaranteed wtih another 1-3 million in bonus’s. Either way I am still happy, this was just to provoke thought.

by jasonlbe on Feb 20, 2009 4:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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