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A's Health Report: Q & A Session With Will Carroll

A couple days ago, Will Carroll offered to answer up to five health-related questions for a team, so I submitted five for the A's. I won't say any of the answers are ground-breaking, but impressively he got back to me same day and it's always nice to hear a view from outside the fan base and inside the industry:

1. How is Eric Chavez' HR power likely to be impacted by his shoulder and back surgeries?

We're just not sure yet. Chavez is saying he feels great, but until we see him in games or at least batting practice, there's no way to tell. Beyond that, we don't know if he'll start off healthy and degrade slowly, or fall off a cliff statistically. It's such an unknown proposition. There are very few comparable situations, so we just have to wait and see, which is frustrating!

2. What, if anything, is the correlation between Dallas Braden throwing his screwball, and the arm problems Braden has recovered from in the past 12-18 months?

I don't think it's the screwball as much as how hard he cranks it. A circle change is kind of a "half" screwball and a sinker like what Brandon Webb throws has elements of that as well. There's very little research done on the screwball unless you subscribe to Mike Marshall's theories, but there's no reason to think that it has a higher intrinsic pitch cost.

3. If Daric Barton's recovery from hip surgery affects his play in 2009, how will it show up first/most?

I think we'll see his swing affected most. It's not like running is part of his game. If he can't get comfortable in his swing, I think we'll see him struggle. That said, he shouldn't - the hip surgery isn't a Ducscherer (sic) like situation here.

4. Was Mark Ellis' propensity for popping pitches up last year thought to be related to his then-ailing shoulder?

I've heard every theory in the book, but I'd just be guessing if I said A=B on that. Hitting is hard enough without trying to do it through pain.

5. Do Travis Buck's series of injuries the past few years scream "injury prone" or "series of flukes"?

A series of flukes is a pattern. I always say that health is a skill like anything else, and until a player shows he can survive under the intense workload of professional baseball, whether it's one big injury or a bunch of small ones, he doesn't have that skill. People try to wave off small injuries, but I think they're as telling as anything else.

Thanks to Will Carroll for taking the time to address these questions. In the 48 hours since I submitted the questions, Chavez has announced he will not play for the first week of spring training (presumably just a conservative move in response to the longer spring training) and A's trainer Steve Sayles has announced that Ellis will not be cleared to play 2B in games until March 25th (just two weeks before Opening Night).

So despite the A's cautious optimism about improved overall health in 2009, it is most certainly once again touch and go for the green and gold - or is the black and blue?

 

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"I always say that health is a skill "

This has always, always, bothered me. Carroll has repeated this phrase, as have others, so often, that it’s considered conventional wisdom. As far as I can tell, there’s no evidence that health is a “skill.”

A skill is something that is measurable and predictable. If we measure someone’s batting average, we can use that to predict his batting average next year. But we can’t really predict injuries the way we can predict other skills. If we could, then the A’s would have a few more division titles under their belt.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Feb 17, 2009 1:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if what he really means is that

one can predict future health by looking at past health, because there are often genetic/physical reasons that will persist over time – in other words, if you’re born with weak hamstrings, or if you throw hard from a small frame, you are likely to continue to have problems you may already have had. And of course, you’re more likely crash into walls, or Crosby, or the bottom of a swimming pool.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I kind of agree

Skill doesn’t seem like the right word, but I’m not sure what is. In Buck’s case (correct me if I’m wrong) he’s sprained a thumb and gotten a concussion that led to vertigo as a result of outfield play. He also had shin splints, which seems like poor conditioning or trying to come back too soon, and can be corrected by balancing out the strength of the lower leg muscles. To me, this points more to a haphazard approach (Byrnes-like?) from a guy eager to get back on the field and prove himself, rather than a guy who’s going to constantly be injured. Perhaps there’s something he could change to help avoid these injuries, and it could be that avoiding injuries is a skill.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 17, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Learning when and how not to go "all out" might be the best answer for Buck

That’s a matter of maturity and perspective, which could be equated to a “skill” of sorts.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sounds like Buck agrees



MLB.com: What do you need to do better this year?

Buck: I learned a lot last year from being hurt again, so I’ve done a lot of work on my lower-body flexibility, my hamstring, shins, calves. That’s where quite a few of my injuries have come, so I’m taking better care of my legs. And I need to learn when to pick my spots a little more in the outfield, knowing when to lay out or dive for a ball and when to play the ball back.

The whole interview is here

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 20, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, it can be predicted to some extent, and predicting it is held back by measurement difficulties as well as randomness

That said, I think Will Carroll tends to very much overstate both the extent to which it is in principle predictable and the extent to which it can actually be predicted, because it’s his thing…. I recall him writing a somewhat ludicrous article where he talked about teams being able to save x amount of dollars by hiring certain trainers…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Feb 17, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say with guys like Tim Hudson it's predictable,

but with guys who get in on the hand by a pitch one year, then pull a hamstring another year, then come down with mono another year, it’s hard to say it’s not just bad luck or coincidence. Although arguably, opening a bottle of sunscreen correctly is a skill.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

uh, what?

You sound like me talking about defensive metrics. Just because there isn’t a current SotA method for benchmarking/predictability doesn’t mean that there can’t be one.

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 17, 2009 1:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

His point is that it's not just a matter of luck ...

which I think you’d agree is true …

Skill may not be the best word and sample size may always be too small for evidence of this skill to ever be very clear, but I don’t think anyone can argue that injuries are more than just a matter of luck …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 17, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree with you...

Something about the way it phrases seems off, somehow.

Yet, I know some players play through pain better than others; some players do seem more ‘injury-prone’…

"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers

by baseballgirl on Feb 17, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe a better way to put it would be that

while good and bad health is often a matter of luck, “managing your health” is a skill.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

For an example of what baseball girl is talking about:

See one Tracy McGrady of the Houston Rockets. Yes, it’s an NBA player but the argument might just well be the same. T-Mac is notorious for dogging injuries and not being willing to play when he’s not 100%.
And, the fact that T-Mac is injury prone to boot doesn’t help his cause.
 
I think one of the main reasons guys like Chavvy have struggled is mainly due to the fact that he’s tried to play thru pain and has ended up hurting himself more because of doing so. As fans we appreciate the “gut it out effort” of player like Chavvy. The last several years have been an accumulation of injuries piled up/ making Chavvy more injury prone. I don’t call that bad luck, I call it not letting your body heal properly.
Buck, I am not sure about, yet. I think he’s had a little more “mental” struggling going on, but the injuries sure didn’t help.

Ellis is just unlucky in my opinion. Poor guy. Does his updated health status indicate, maybe, that the A’s might want to entertain signing Orlando Hudson “just in case”? Thanks for the post, Nico.

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 17, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hudson would be a great addition - unfortunately, the A's

just aren’t the type of team that can afford to stash a player of that caliber as “insurance”. I’d be tempted to pick him up just because he’s such a bargain, but that’s something only teams like the Yankees can do.

What about Mark Grudzielanek? Maybe a more realistic “luxury plan B or fill-in” target and very much an “A’s type of player” – at 39, kind of like Randy Velarde when the A’s picked him up.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be cool with either one myself. What if one of Crosby or Ellis gets hurt again?

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Feb 18, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't understand this at all

I will bet $50 at 5:4 odds (I pay $50 if I lose, you pay $40 if you lose) that Miguel Tejada will spend fewer days on the DL this upcoming season than will Milton Bradley. If you disagree with the notion that health is a skill, you should be willing to take that bet.

Surely you’d take a bet at those odds that says “the A’s will bat better with RISP than with no RISP”, right? Yet I doubt you’ll take my bet (naturally— otherwise I’d not make it). Why? Because the number of GP by Bradley is predictably lower than the number of GP by Tejada.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 17, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tejada's a weird example, given his situation right now

It also depends on whether Bradley’s TRO against Bud Black has expired yet.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't cherry-pick the most extreme examples.

Predicting playing time is a fool’s errand. Many try, but there’s a reason why end-of-year retrospectives of projection systems focus on the rate stats.

Perhaps I wasn’t clear enough with my original post. Health may be a skill, but there ain’t nobody that can tell me how likely it is that an injury – and the concomitant decrease in effectiveness/loss of playing time – will occur.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Feb 17, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Except with Rich Harden, when you can say

“Hang on…hang on…almost…hang on…NOW.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He pitched almost 150 innings last year.

Anyone on AN predicting 150 innings would have been laughed off the website.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Feb 17, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Correction.

Anyone predicting he would pitch 150 innings for the A’s would have been laughed on the website.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Feb 18, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why can't I?

Pitchers’ BABIP is a “skill” in which only the most extreme examples (Zito, Maddux, Bonderman) display consistently positive or negative performance. Nonetheless, it is a (sort of a) skill. And just like with injury, we don’t really know the mechanics of it.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 17, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.

At least we have some idea in the spread in BABIP skill among the population. We have an idea as to how many BIP we need to accurately assess this skill. My guess is that any attempt to “predict” injuries would be overwhelmed by the noisiness in the data that we’d end up regressing practically everyone to the mean.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Feb 17, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Could yew kids keep that noisiness down -

dere’s people tryna nurse sore hamstrings here!"

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Could be

Quite frankly, I’m surprised Tango or Pizza Cutter or, for that matter, one of the AN statigentsia hasn’t tried to figure out the extent to which past DL time predicts future DL time.

I just can’t believe it’s that random without a study that says so. It doesn’t square with my intuition at all. There are healthy guys, injury prone guys, and my subconscious tells me that never the twain shall meet.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Feb 17, 2009 8:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Skill"

It’s probably just that we need a better word for it than “skill.” There are certain players who just have bodies more prone to breaking-down/tearing/etc… (like Bradley) and there are others that play the game in such a way that they risk hurting themselves (young Griffey Jr., Torii Hunter — though in his case he’s played more games than most Twins fans have expected). I’m not sure the best word for “not having body genetically susceptible to injuries” is “skill”, but at the same time, I’d get nothing but strange looks if the next time I’m talking with my friends I mention that “health is a predicative trait.”

by rageon on Feb 18, 2009 6:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Injury 'skill'

is probably dependent on the type of injury. For example, elbow problems, torn rotator cuffs, pulled hamstrings are probably related to bad mechanics or bad conditioning or both. These, like any skill, can be affected through practice (aka fixing mechanics or working out so that hamstring tendons aren’t weak).

However, injuries such as crashing into your own player (Beltran and Mike Cameron, circa 2005) are probably due more to luck than anything else.

How you define jumping into a shallow pool on the other hand….

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 18, 2009 7:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Could it be that by "skill"

he means, how you take care of your body, what you are doing to stay healthy and avoiding risk (BoCro running into you excluded) of serious injury. Yes, some people (not just ball players) are more susceptible to injury. Not everyone is built the same and our bodies respond differently to constant physical stress in different ways. Maybe this is what Mr. Carroll is speaking of when he says “Skill”. That to be an athlete (of any kind) you must really understand your own body and its limits. So, if you have a hitch in your swing, you take steps to fix that hitch. You practice, you incorporate new drills to prevent you from replicating that hitch. Same is true with weak hamstrings (if that is your nagging injury) you start to manage that area and should be constantly monitoring it. It is all about maintenance.

"RIP: UserID: 553"

by Masaryk on Feb 17, 2009 1:47 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

By a skill ... he means that it's not just luck ...

That just like a player’s skill at meeting ball with bat influences the way things play out in the field, so too does his skill at staying healthy influence the way injuries play out on the field …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 17, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Emil Brown signs with Padres

DFA Link

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Feb 17, 2009 2:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

They are now the team to beat in the NL West!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and they will be beaten a lot

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 17, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Zing!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Will is the best

He is so great with responding to email and questions. A class act.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Feb 17, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

that's true

I particularly remember his candidness when I was asking about Halsey/Crosby complaining about the A’s med staff

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 17, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

due to a scratch on my macbook screen,

I read Palsey/Crosby an I thought what now with Crosby?

alaska A residing in colorado.

by ak_A on Feb 17, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby isn't cerebral enough

And that scratch is what you get when you download so much porn. Or is that an itch?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Larry Davis takes exception

Staying healthy isn’t a skill. Getting hurt is an art.

Bob Geren and Ken Macha both enjoy jai lai.

by CarGon's Jock on Feb 17, 2009 5:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

And Science!

Don’t forget that Larry is a medicalician.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 17, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And magic

he’s Larry Potter

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 17, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting read...

It was kind of an odd offer but I enjoyed reading Carroll’s take on things. I am going to look up the Marshall theory thang.

by IM4Oakgal on Feb 17, 2009 7:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For the record Nico

Probably nicer to correct the misspelling of Duke’s name than to throw a sic after it.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Feb 18, 2009 7:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Less authentic

Plus, adding “sick” by an A’s player’s name is usually a safe bet.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 18, 2009 8:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or in Cust's case,

(sic) with a K.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Feb 18, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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