Possible Solution to our SP Problem?
by FrankCohen on Feb 15, 2009 10:49 AM PST
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According to MLBTradeRumors, we should expect the Tigers to make some trade before the start of the season, "perhaps a big one", involving them trading away one of their starters. This got me thinking, should we try to trade for Justin Verlander? His down year last year should lessen his value a bit, and if he returns to form, he could give us a solid #2 to bridge the rotation between Duke and Eveland/Gallagher/Whoever impresses in ST.
What do you guys think? And what do you think Verlander would cost in terms of prospects?
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I would be all for that
I think he’s a great pitcher who just happened to have a down year. anyone know what he’s getting paid tho?
as a side note, there has been some speculation that the a’s may try to sign pedro over at mlbtr, please no!
I actually thought of Verlander, but didn't think he'd be available
Armando Gallaraga would be another possibility, though he’d be buying high instead of low. I wonder what he would cost in terms of players.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
galarraga is also not good
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
If they're trading a starter, it won't be Verlander.
He’s their best starting pitcher by a very wide margin, and yes, the A’s should back up the Brinks truck if they can get him.
I love the idea of signing Pedro to a minor-league deal, incidentally. In his prime, he was the best starting pitcher I have ever seen. What’s the harm in kicking the tires on something like that?
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Maybe the same harm as kicking the tires on
Sandy Koufax, who was the best pitcher Cindi’s grandmother has ever seen.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
they arent trading verlander
their speculation is willis/robertson but i cant imagine either having much value
slusser mentioned today mulder on a minor league deal, but he has yet to even throw in a workout for teams
Seems to me as if Gallaraga would be the best chance at a "middle ground"
between Verlander (too good) and Willis/Robertson (no thanks). But Gallaraga may be too close to “too good” for the Tigers to trade him – after all, their weakness is starting pitching, not hitting!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Galarraga
I would be for going after Armando, but I don’t think he’s as good of a pitcher as he looked last year, and we would be buying high on him.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
Sadly, that's probably true - on the other hand,
he’s very likely to pitch better this season than Gio or Outman, maybe even Braden, and he’s under pretty cheap contract control for a while. Guess it all depends on what the A’s would have to give up. Thing is, if I’m the Tigers I’m NOT looking to trade a SP (unless it’s crap – like Willis and Robertson), so that’s a bit of a problem…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
BTW, Galarraga's L/R splits are pretty dramatic, FWIW
In samples of 95 and 84 IP, left-handed hitters batted .267 (1.42 WHIP), while right-handed hitters batted .174 (0.93 WHIP).
An 0.93 WHIP vs. righties for an entire season (30 starts, 179 total IP) is pretty impressive.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That is impressive
But I’m of the opinion that he could not come very close to duplicating those numbers this year. And the Tigers could use his (in my opinion) somewhat flukey stats to gain leverage in a deal.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
Question (there's no right answer, strictly guesswork):
Of Armando Galarraga, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Josh Outman, and Jerome Williams, how would you project them in descending order of “2009 performance over 30 starts”? For me it would be about in that order, but like everyone else I don’t actually know.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hmmm
I’m actually a big Outman fan. I think it would go Outman, Galarraga, Gonzalez, Braden, Williams. But as you said, nobody can really know.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
I like Outman, but fear his fastball is too straight
to sustain him as a starter (he can at least throw harder out of the pen and face more lefties out of the pen). I’m thinking that Galarraga could be a pretty solid #3 along with Eveland, pushing Braden to #5 and Gio/Outman to AAA/bullpen. That would leave you with a weak #2 (Gallagher, unproven) but a really strong #4 (Galarraga/Eveland).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ooooooh, I love predictions based on nothing but gut...
wObservation+ projection is:
Braden
Gallaraga
Williams
Outman
Gio
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Feb 15, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm...
1. Gio Gonzalez
2. Dallas Braden
3. Armando Gallaraga
4. Josh Outman
5. Curt Young
6. Jerome Williams
"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits. It is equally unreasonable to accept merely probable conclusions from a mathematician and to demand strict demonstration from an orator." - Aristotle, Ethics
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 16, 2009 7:46 AM PST up reply actions
I'd expect Gio and Braden to outpitch Galarraga this season
I think he’s a very mediocre pitcher.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
+1
Though I’m not sure if I think it’s Gio or Outman, since Outman seems a bit ahead of Gio at the moment. I don’t think Galarraga is very good.
by thejd44 on Feb 15, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
I think he'll regress, but his success against righties
shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly IMO.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what's wrong with that?
i buy high all the time. mostly doritos.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
possible
he came out of nowhere as a no options guy from texas…maybe A’s can take advantage of a similar situation with another team. especially to lessen some of their own depth at other positions…i think rich hill couldve been that
by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 15, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Pedro Martinez - hell yes!
I doubt he will sign a minor league deal or if that even with the A’s, but even at his older age he is still really good. The guy is 37-38 years old – not bad since we were rumored to make a pitch at 44 year old Randy Johnson who got 10 million. Pedro will get a fraction of that. With our much improved bullpen (lets hope), Pedro would not be need for more then 5-6IPs which is pretty much all he go can anymore + he would be pitching in a great pitching park. The guy might not be able to throw smoke anymore but the guy can flat out get batter out with junk.
My guess is he doesn’t sign with anyone until june/july and picks his contender like Roger Clemens did a few year ago.
Justin Verlander is an untouchable, he’s not going anywhere.
Verlander would be awesome, but expensive in terms of prospects.
Gallaraga would be intriguing as well and might not cost the A’s as much. Still, I’m not sure why they would want trade away their starting pitching when that is exactly what they need.
Unless they are going into full on re-build mode to try and stock up on young talent, like our very own Athletics last year, what gives?
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
Probably that "want to trade a SP" really means
“Want to pawn Willis or Robertson off on a desperate sucker.” Kind of like the A’s saying, “Hey, we’ve decided we’re willing to part with Saarloos and Halsey if the price is right!!!111”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
D. WIllis is from Oakland
I would take a flyer on D. WIlis – the guy was once a stud and if he can find his control again – he would be a steal.
I second that
as long as the Tigers pick up a healthy portion of his contract. I think he’s due to make 11 mil a year over the next 3. The Tigers would have to pick up nearly half of that for the A’s to move on him, I’d think. But he could probably be had cheap, prospect wise. Maybe one of our fringe prospects that are looking at minor league free agency next year, like Herrera and a low level pitcher or two.
I'm not that wild (pun intended) about getting Willis
Yes he once pitched well in the big leagues over a full season (and actually over 2-3 full seasons), which certainly can’t be said of Gio, Outman, Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Simmons or even Braden, Gallagher, or Eveland.
But the odds of Willis rediscovering that magic are, IMO, lower than the odds of most of those reaching a level that is higher than the level Willis will reach in 2009 (and probably beyond). I’d sooner go forward with the young guys and let them get better as the season wears on (see Haren, Blanton, circa 2005) than hope Willis is a non-disaster at several times the price.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ummm... as you know, I'm as much for the young guys as anyone...
but, if the A’s can pick up Willis on the cheap, they should do it.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 15, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
But on what do you base the likelihood that he'll perform well in 2009?
Why wouldn’t Gio Gonzalez or Brett Anderson have just as good a chance? This is a guy who walked 35 batters in 24 IP in 2008, had a 1.60 WHIP in 2007, and had a 1.42 WHIP in 2006.
Since the start of the 2006 season, over three seasons Willis is 22-29 with a 4.75 ERA over 452 IP. And each season has been a lot worse than the one before (ERAs of 3.87, 5.17, 9.38).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yeah, that's bad... that's why it would have to be really cheap
I wouldn’t give up anything of significance for him. But, if they offered, I’d listen. Would he be any worse than Jerome Williams in the rotation? Maybe. But, maybe not.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 15, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
besides, Steve Phillips just did a piece...
on how to fix Willis. It’s all mechanical. ;-)
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 15, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
See I'd rather take a chance on Williams,
because he’s cheap and young enough to rebound from…obesity/entitlement or whatever the affliction is called when you think you’re all that and so you don’t bother to stay in shape and you gain 40 pounds.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Maybe...
but, I’d count Williams as an automatic loss every fifth start. That wouldn’t happen, of course, because the A’s will, no doubt, score 8 runs in the 1st inning during one of his starts. But, that’s how I’d look at him.
DWill, on the other hand, I’ve seen him pitch well before. He may just be able to do so, again.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 15, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions
if the A’s can pick up Willis on the cheap, they should do it. […] but, I’d count Williams as an automatic loss every fifth start.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
I must be missing the contradiction...
you seem to imply from that combination of my two posts.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 16, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Why would we want to acquire an automatic loss every fifth game?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Yet "Am Willis" kind of does equal "Williams"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Dur ... you may call me Ruprecht
Apologies for the idiocy, Foolsh.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
oh, I agree...
Phillips is an idiot. But, I have to admit that his video analysis of Dontrelle’s change in mechanics showed major changes from when he was pitching well to when he pitched like crap.
Maybe it is fixable. Maybe it’s not. But, I’d say it’d be worth a shot if we could pick up Willis on the cheap.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Feb 17, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, I saw that as well
and I think Willis would/could be an ideal candidate for the A’s to “fix”. If there’s one team in baseball that could fix Dontrelle’s mechanics, it’s the A’s. Hey, if the deal makes sense then do it! The guy still has loads of talent and I wouldn’t give up on him yet.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
difference between Gio Gonzalez/Brett Anderson and Willis?
Willis has shown (albeit in the distant past) that he can get major league batters out at at a fair rate. Gonzalez has struggled so far to demonstrate that, though I, and many others thing he’ll improve in that category. Anderson hasn’t even pitched 50 innings above AA yet, so I don’t think there’s any rush there.
Thing is, your first sentence also applies to
(in increasing order of absurdity) Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez, and Nolan Ryan. The question is, would you rather roll the dice with someone whose best years are probably 2 years from now or someone whose best years are probably 2 years ago?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes BUT
unlike Pedro and Zito – D-Train, at the tender age of 27 (ahhh the magical breakout age) is far more likely to have 2 potentially decent years in the future.
Like Zito did?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No, like Ariel Prieto did
The “magical breakout age” of 27 really applies more to hitters than to pitchers (and hitters, it turns out, tend to truly “break out” at age 26, not age 27); pitchers breakout based on skills (6.0+ K/9, 2.0 K/BB), not based on age.
A 24-year-old is just as likely to break out as a 28-year-old if he can command his pitches and keep hitters off balance. Willis can make hitters miss; unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to find the plate with any kind of consistency for the last 2-3 years.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 17, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Right - I'd characterize Willis as a relatively bad risk
I’d actually like Mulder’s chances better, and Freddy Garcia’s chances better, of the guys who are/were there for the dice-rolling.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mulder and Garcia
I’m skepitcal on Mulder… the guy hasn’t pitched effectively at the MLB level since 2005. Even if his shoulder’s healthy, I think he faces some huge mental hurdles in his recovery.
I do agree on Garcia; I would have been excited to see him sign with the A’s.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 17, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
You know who else hasn't pitched effectively at the MLB level since 2005?
Dontrelle Willis.
Okay, well, 2006, but still…
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
Trust me
I have as little confidence in Willis recovering as I do in Mulder recovering, but for different reasons… Mulder, I think, will struggle to regain his confidence and his muscle-memory after essentially spending two years away from MLB hitting. Willis, I think, will struggle to regain his mechanics and his confidence, after getting pounded by MLB hitting for the last two years. Neither of them seems all that promising in the short-term.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." - The Not Big Aristotle
by Uncle Charlie on Feb 18, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
willis for FREE wouldn't be a steal
as he’d still take up a roster spot.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Not if you cut him
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 16, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions
right
if the a’s could somehow acquire willis for free but then cut him before rosters were finalized, i would be totally fine with it.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Wouldn't that pretty much apply to any player (except Alex Sanchez)?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
+1
provided the Tigers foot the bill. At the very least you figure he’d be pretty good out of the bullpen.
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 16, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions
Is Jeremy Bonderman's Right Arm Still Functioning?
Or is he out for the foreseeable future due to some kind of Jimmy-John surgery?
I think it's Tommy-Tim sugary
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ACTUALLY
it was an unnamed surgery to correct thoracic outlet compression syndrome. You know, thoracic outlet compression syndrome? a terrible syndrome.
They opted against the Jimmy John surgery.
If he can make it through the rest of the contract, he might net them a sandwich pick.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I read somwhere he was going to have Jimmy Dean surgery ...
… except I can’t find the link.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
that's two bad
because if he hadn’t had Timmy-Joe surgery, we could have traded to get him back…That was SUCH an awesome deal for us. Sending Bonderman to the Tigers for what amounted to 200 innings of pre-superstud Ted Lilly….REALLY pre-superstud.
Also Bonderman hasn't been that good in his MLB career.
oh, and Detroit has destroyed his arm.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
MLB.com 2009 Fantasy Preview
So I’m not sure what MLB.com uses to rank players as part of their 2009 Fantasy Preview but I thought the following was interesting:
Verlander is ranked #26 overall for starters.
Gallarga is ranked #57.
Bonderman is at #68.
Freddy Garcia as you will see below is one spot above Gio (does Garcia still combust on the mound when things go bad?? I remember his days with Seattle when they played Oakland and he whined a lot—-don’t want to see that in Green & Gold)
Mark Mulder is ranked #170 right behind Kenny Rogers and only slightly trailing Tim Hudson at #164
The Duke #61 (#60-Joe Saunders, #63 Chris Carpenter)
Dallas Braden #109 (#108-Pedro Martinez, #110 Scott Olsen)
Dana Eveland #105 (#104-Todd Wellenmeyer, #106-Jamie Moyer)
SEan Gallagher #121 (#120- Barry Zito, #122 Braden Looper)
Gio Gonzales #127 (#126-Freddy Garcia, #128 Wade LeBlanc)
Trevor Cahill #182
Josh Outman #189
Vinny Mazarro not in Top 200
Brett Anderson not in top 200
Given talk of trying to get Looper (before he signed) or Martinez I thought it was curious that MLB.com considers Gallagher and Braden(respectively) to be pretty much equal to them overall. Gallagher’s adjacency to Zito either induces fear or promise. Gio being associated with Freddy Garcia is not something I hope to ever see again. And if Eveland can put up a Jamie Moyer type performance I’d be thrilled.
MLB.com put 31 players on the A’s in ordr based on potential impact…….Crosby ranked #31 just behind Outman #30.
"Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first call promising."--Cyril Connolly, Enemies of Promise
Looking at the rankings, it just appears they use
recent MLB performance as the main criterion. Gallagher’s and Gio’s major league stats sucked in 2008, while Brett Anderson didn’t pitch at all. Verlander, OTOH, has a track record, while Braden and Eveland put up serviceable major league stats.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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