Let’s Talk Lineups
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 10:39 AM PST
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PrintAL West News: Bobby Abreu is now on the Angels.
If you are interested in AN Community Service, please read and recommend Nico's post.
After my post a couple of weeks ago on the A’s starting pitching, I was told that perhaps I came across too negatively about the A’s chances in 2009. In writing a preview of the season, I realized that I am optimistic; yet realistic. The A’s season is, by and large, going to hinge on the success or failure of the starting rotation. It will; however, be a nice change to not necessarily feel that the game is over when your starting pitchers throw up 6 inning, 4 run games on a consistent basis. The 2009 offense will be better than 2008, and I don’t see that as a bold prediction. It couldn’t be much worse.
In a perfect world, Eric Chavez will start the season for the A’s in April at 100%, with a full Spring Training behind him. Rather than anchoring the team himself, or cheerleading from the bench while Jack Cust tries mightily to create all of the team’s power, Chavez and Cust will be joined by Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, turning the A’s lineup from the joke of 2008 into a serviceable team at the worst, and a run-scoring machine at best.
There are those who say that lineups don’t matter, and to some extent, if you have nine superstars; they don’t. I wrote a post about this years ago on AN, prompted by Eric Walker, and The Sinister First Baseman. However, I think the A’s can create one that might score some runs, and at least give our young pitchers a chance to succeed. This was debated over and over at AN Fan Fest 2009; whether Cust should start in the 2-hole, who would back up Matt Holliday, and can the L/R splits affect late bullpen use?
I think if Travis Buck can prove that he belongs out there, then he should have the leadoff spot, but a case could be made for Ryan Sweeney there, as well. Travis Buck is like a box of chocolates, and is a virtual unknown quantity this year. I also hope that we get 2007 Ellis this season, instead of the 2008 version; I would bat Ellis behind the power hitters until he shows some sign of early success. Sweeney has shown some flashes of being a really good 1, 2, or borderline 3 hitter, and it will be interesting to see him hit with some legitimate power in the lineup around him.
I think the A’s pulled Suzuki up in the lineup for the sheer reason that he was having a better season than almost anyone on the field, but in a perfect world, he’s the catcher, and the hitting is bonus. Hitting him lower in the order also allows for some baserunners at the bottom of the lineup.
Crosby will hit ninth.
The four power hitters fit into the lineup like the math problem from junior high involving the ages of Benny, who is two years older than Sue, but one year younger than Greg. Someone good has to bat behind Jack Cust; if Cust is the lesser of two evils for the opposing pitcher, he will either see good pitches to hit, or become a baserunner for the batter behind him. That batter shouldn’t be Giambi, due to the L/L combination, so the job falls to Holliday, who should also have someone good behind him, which is Giambi. Chavez will be left out in the sixth spot, but for someone who has so long been a 3/4/5/ hitter when he either a) didn’t want to be ‘the guy’ or b) not good enough to be the main guy, sixth should be a welcome relief. Neither Cust nor Chavez has to be the superstar.
Of course, these lineups do not account for any late-minute additions, such as an O-Cab, or a breakout player in Spring Training (Rajai Davis; I’m looking at you!), or (God forbid!) injuries, but they’re probably the conservative guess of the nine players involved in the lineup.
I’ve taken two shots at it:
Travis Buck
Ryan Sweeney
Jack Cust
Matt Holliday
Jason Giambi
Eric Chavez
Mark Ellis
Kurt Suzuki
Bobby Crosby
Ryan Sweeney
Mark Ellis
Jack Cust
Matt Holliday
Jason Giambi
Eric Chavez
Kurt Suzuki
Travis Buck
Bobby Crosby
What do you think?
On a completely unrelated note, the A’s open the season in Anaheim this year for a four game series. Do any of my SoCal ANer’s want to go in on a block of tickets for Tues or Wed night, April 7 or 8? I think Monday the 6th will be too crowded; it’s Opening Day, and the game starts at 6:00PM. T/W/Th are all 7:00PM starts, but I can make Tuesday or Wednesday. I will contact the Angels ticketing office if there is interest, fill out the poll below, or email me at baseballgirl1976 at hotmail.
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Why do people care so much about lineups?
Serious question. You could pull them out of a hat and it would cost you like one game a season.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 11, 2009 10:49 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Serious answer.
I care about lineups because Eric Walker told me to.
The author of the precursor to Moneyball, and one of my favorite books of all time, The Sinister First Baseman. I wrote a post on it, and archived it on AN years ago. That post is here.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Don't worry about it BBG.
Of course lineups are important and absolutely make a difference to the outcome of games. His constant, snarky, negative comments scream of someone who is still bitter at always being the last person picked on every team in P.E.
Remember this is the guy who doesn’t think baseball is a very mental game at all. This speaks volumes and invalidates just about anything else he has to say about the game of baseball.
I guess your reliance on ad hominem attacks means we can disregard your input as well
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Why does it matter?
BBG even said in the post that there are those who think lineups don’t matter, and sure as shit the very first comment is one saying that lineups don’t matter. What’s the point?
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 11, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
And honestly, it's comments like that...
…that keep people from wanting to have a fun, light discussion on AN about batting lineups, and ‘playing manager’ for a little bit. Some baseball fans like that.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
No, it's comments like that that DON'T keep people from etc etc etc
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
seriously
i’m with you BBG, there is plenty of room for all types of discussion. too often on AN someone is “put in their place” because their POV or opinion does not fit the company line. reducing baseball to a science of statistical analysis is great for some, but i prefer to blend the science and the art of baseball along with the history and a wide range of personal observations. PT, i appreciate all of the information you bring and have learned a great deal from your posts and the statistical analysis of many others, but i think for most fans being emotional and even irrational at times is a part of the fun. lineup speculation is fun, and IMO putting the pieces together properly is far more important than 1 game a year.
by cvdoug on Feb 11, 2009 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
I have been a member for years and have just given up posting. The fun in baseball for me is the onfield strategy, the ambiance, the LINEUP and just the plain old feeling of watching my favorite team play. I personally have a tough time finding the time to watch as many games as possible while still working and being a dad, let alone finding the time to dig into outside corner curve balls that were hit to the left side of the infield, bobbled and tossed down to second which resulted in the #5 hitter getting a two strike slider and how it effects +/- win total at the end of the year. I love the fact that people do have the time to do this and I get to learn this interesting stuff, but it seems like you become a 1 dimensional metal duck in the AN shooting gallery if you type with your heart or even just a fun post.
Save the thesaurus for when you are in front of the judge. When speaking of the A's, speak with your heart on...................your sleeve!
by norcalfan on Feb 11, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
No kidding. It's embarrassing for AN
to have haughty “know-it-all” comments where silence would suffice.
I wish you’d just go ahead and post, norcalfan, as we have your back. Thanks, mikev and cvdoug, for standing up for the right to post and discuss things that may or may not “matter” – who cares? Does fantasy baseball “matter”? How about rolling around the grass?
I have a lot more respect for people who know how to have fun and let others have fun than I have for people who mistakenly think they know everything and feel obliged to stand in judgment of others. Good effing grief!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 11, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
I’m coming up on 10,000 comments on this site, and it’s a major reason I post far less frequently. The whole game of “whose statistical &* is bigger” gets tiresome. There have always been people on this site, for the four years I’ve been here, that bring meaningful and compelling analysis to the table. It’s only been the last year, maybe more, that such analysis comes with so much attitude.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Feb 11, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
My advice: post anyway, dammit!
We will drown all attitude out with our prolific, intuitive, whimsical, lineups-are-important-and-protection-exists-and-some-hitters-are-clutch based comments, not with our silence! We are VORPless woman: hear us roar!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 11, 2009 8:56 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
There are plenty of places where the "science of statistical analysis" is not controlling
Lineup construction is not one of them.
Just for reference, right now in the sidebar I count 5 posts out of 15 which have anything to do with analysis, and that’s using a permissive definition of analysis. The intimation that “goofiness” is somehow being crowded out by nerds with slide rules is totally incorrect.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Yes, but the difference is that
when I see a stat-based analysis I don’t agree with, or find worthy, I ignore it and move on – which allows others to enjoy the thread without my saying “Why are we talking about this?”
The reality is, if a small group of commenters are alienating, and keeping away, a larger group of potential commenters, then just as a businessperson (and that doesn’t even bring up the “fairness” component) Blez and Co. have good reason to say “Stop doing that or go away.”
And as “Co” I have no problem saying publicly that I will vote for the silent majority over the loud minority every time. Sure, people can develop a thicker skin – at the same time, people can also be more tolerant and allow all points of view to be treated as worthy of respect.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 11, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Amen.
when I see a stat-based analysis I don’t agree with, or find worthy, I ignore it and move on – which allows others to enjoy the thread without my saying "Why are we talking about this?"
Basic courtesy never goes out of style. Some of the stat guys could learn so much from the way you deal with people, Nico. You have a very good head for baseball and yet you never talk down to people. I admire you for that.
Thanks, even though I do have to disagree ever so slightly -
I do talk down to people occasionally. I just know when I’ve done it and am not happy with myself about it. But I do try to keep it to a minimum.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
At least you know when you are doing it.
I really enjoy the young kids here on the site but like Joe Torre said in his book…baseball has a heartbeat…it’s not just about stats. I do appreciate the research and analysis that out stat guys offer. I’d just like to see them take a little more care with the way they treat other author’s efforts here on this site.
Everyone will be nicer to each other once the A's start winning again
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah, feels like the A's haven't won a game in months.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe
But if the argument is “I don’t care about stats I like thinking about lineups” (which, for the record, is very fair) then why does it matter if someone points out (accurately) that it doesn’t really have much of an impact?
Seems to me like a far less offensive thing to say than all the posts about how stat guys have no social skills and are mean to everyone all the time.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Because it's fun.
Making baseball lineups is fun. It was fun when I was 15, and it’s still fun now that I’m 30.
Maybe that game is a 1-game play-off to make it into the post-season
The monster at the end of this blog.
Has this been proven?
On the field, I mean. Over the course of a full season. Random lineups every game. No significant variation (+/- 2 or 3 games) in won-lost results at the end of the season.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
If you're asking if someone has in fact done this, the answer is no...
not for more than a couple of games…
Really, the solution isn’t to do it randomly, it’s to use a computer. This is precisely the kind of variable-heavy, number-crunching, not-worth-tremendous-amounts-of-human-labor problem which computers were designed to solve.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Ah, but computers with what inputs?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Just plug in the numbers from The Book and forget about it...
If they’re off, it’s by some trivially insignificant margin…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I didn't realize the book had next year's lines down that exactly
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Actually, people should care because it's worth a win
And, more importantly, the “correct” lineup isn’t a difficult thing to accomplish. Simply put: It’s a “Free” win if a manager does it right.
That said, neither Ryan Sweeney nor Mark Ellis should be batting second with Cust, Giambi, Holliday, and healthy Chavez on the team. That just doesn’t make sense.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
I'm bucking the trend, and doing my part to turn this comment green
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
ala' Billy Martin?
Seriously, I like making out a projected lineup because it is fun and you can choose a different “hat” each time!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
I like it too :-)
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Counting ZZZZ's
Some people count sheep. I construct Opening Day Batting lineups…
vs. Lackey:
1. Sweeney – CF
2. Cust – DH
3. Holliday – LF
4. Giambi – 1B
5. Chavez – 3B
6. Suzuki – C
7. Buck – RF
8. Ellis – 2B
9. Wizard of CROZ – SS
I’d like Holliday to get an AB in the 1st inning, NO MATTER WHAT. Holliday’s 4th AB will almost always come in 8th or 9th inning in a close, low scoring game. And Holliday will probably have someone on base at least 40% – 50% of the time.
Vs. Joe Saunders:
1. Suzuki – C
2. Ellis – 2B
3. Holliday – LF
4. Cust – RF
5. Giambi – DH
6. Chavez – 3B
7. Sweeney – CF
8. Barton – 1B
9. Wizard of CROZ – SS
by Colorado Fan on Feb 11, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
Haha..
Wizard of Croz is fantastic.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Feb 11, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
Wow...best nickname ever.
Going to steal that this year, hope you don’t mind!
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions
WINGED MONKEYS
sorry. been a long day at work.
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 11, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
Brilliant
I have never seen the words Wizard and CROZ used in such a humorous manner. I’m stealing this too man thanks.
"You Went Full Retard, Man - Never Go Full Retard." --Kirk Lazarus
No worries.
I’m trying to stop the negativity that surrounds THE WHIZ KID.
by Colorado Fan on Feb 12, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
I like the first lineup better
I am also getting sucked into the “Chavez is going to be healthy this year, this is his year!!” trap again and I like it.
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 11, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions
Haha, me too.
I’m trying not to get my hopes up; what ARE the chances of Chavez starting the year?
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
I don't know
But whenever I attend a game and he is in the lineup I anticipate his every at bat. I don’t know why. My sister wanted to marry him when she was in high school. I just root for the guy.
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 11, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
As one who thinks Ellis bounces back...
I like the second lineup a lot more. I dont think Buck needs to be hitting first right now after his 08 campaign. No reason to put that pressure on him right away. If he hits, let me earn his way up there and then adapt from there. I like the look of lineup 2 with Elly hitting in the 2 hole.
Bring back Hammer.
Yes, but can you make 2007 Ellis show up? ;-)
I agree. I would like Ellis up there, and if Buck struggles, he might recover lower in the lineup.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
+1
Buck basically said a lot of his struggles were mentally induced last year so I say start him in the 8 or 9 hole and see what happens.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 12, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions
I like the first lineup a bit more than the second
I think I would flip flop Sweeney and Buck since Buck has more power, but either way works fine. The only thing with Crosby is that maybe he should hit 8th and hit Kurt (or Buck in the second lineup) 9th to try that “second lead off hitter” idea.
...when you let other people tell you what success is, you already have no chance of ever finding it. - Doug Glanville
That's a great point...
…either Kurt or Buck would fit well in that role; Buck probably better because he has more speed on the bases. Would look pretty good to have Sweeney at the top of the lineup in that case.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
I object to you saying that Crosby will hit 9th
C’mon BBG…
Hit?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Haha...okay, "stand there in the 9th spot"
Better? :-)
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not sold on Sweeney leading off
he was terrible there last year, whether he was leading off the game or leading off an inning.
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
My take:
Against righties:
1. Sweeney
2. Cust
3. Holliday
4. Giambi
5. Chavez
6. Suzuki
7. Buck
8. Ellis
9. Crosby
Vs. Lefties:
1. Ellis (very high career OBP against lefties)
2. Buck (actually pretty good career numbers against lefties)
3. Holliday (should be entrenched in the 3rd spot against all pitchers)
4. Cust
5. Denorfia (as center fielder)
6. Giambi
7. Chavez
8. Suzuki
9. Crosby
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Denorfia fifth? Ahead of Giambi/Chavez/Suzuki?
Seems like too much of a focus on handedness…..and Denorfia.
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 11, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Definitely outside the box
Just for that, I like it!
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 12, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions
how's about outside the batter's box?
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 12, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
precisely
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 14, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
SoCal AN Day
Re: The first series against Anaheim
I’d love to go – the wife and I had fun last time. But a new A’s fan should be arriving on the 31st of March (+/- a week). Later in the season and all three of us are in!
Accoring to the book "Baseball Between the Numbers"
by James Click and Jonah Keri (Baseball Prospectus)
…a teams’ best hitters should bat sequentially. Lineups in which a team’s three best hitters batted with either one or two average batters between them fell 8 runs short of the lineup in which the top batters batted in three sequential spots. (p. 37)
Moreover, the first few batters in the order are likely to get more at-bats than those batting farther down the order, so you want your best batters hitting at the top of the order.
For me there’s still some uncertainty about who should be in the first and second slots; however, based on last year it would seem that Sweeney should be in the first or second slot. If Buck has a strong spring training and they decide to have him be the starting right fielder he will probably get a chance to bat leadoff. Chavez health and bat speed have to be watched, but if he starts out strong I can see him batting fifth behind Giambi (this is assuming Giambi looks good). I would prefer Cust batting sixth, as I don’t see him as a batting second, contact hitter moving along the leadoff runner and being a fast runner himself for the big guys to drive in. Holliday is penciled in at the three spot, as we know.
Suzuki is pretty solid offensively for a catcher, but hopefully he won’t be pressed into batting very high in the order, so he can concentrate on his more important catching job. I suspect Ellis may not be playing every day at the beginning of the season, but if he is he’ll probably start at the lower end of the order — and I expect Crosby there as well since he has to be considered offensively weak until he proves otherwise.
So here is my tentative general lineup (not counting platoons or particular righty-lefty matchups):
1) Buck rf
2) Sweeney cf
3) Holliday lf
4) Giambi 1b
5) Chavez 3b
6) Cust dh (I could see flip-flopping Chavvy and Cust in the lineup)
7) Suzuki c
8) Crosby ss
9) Ellis 2b
re: Chavez
I’m sure somebody could come up with numbers to contradict me on this, and I will admit to a long-standing Chavez cynicism and frustration, but I am a big proponent of Chavez never batting higher than 6th in any line-up. From my years of observation, I still believe he lacks the mental ‘killer instinct’ to be “The Man” that everybody depends on, which being a 3-4-5 hitter implies, yet he does have the ability and power to be an outstanding compliment to an otherwise string line-up. IOW: bat him 6th, take the pressure off, he relaxes and flourishes.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
that's in part why in the middle of my lineup post
I put the caveat that Cust and Chavez could be switched.
Oh, I know.
I wasn’t intending to contradict you directly, just commenting on Chavez more in general. Many like to put him higher and I’m still not convinced where he’s concerned.
Where there’s a solid 3-4-5 line-up I think he’s a perfect #6.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
I do believe that certain guys aren't capable of hitting in certain spots because they've had certain things ingrained into them
But I’m not sure there’s more pressure at other spots in the lineup. If anything, Chavez will be hitting w/RISP a lot more if Cust, Giambi, and Holliday are hitting in front of him.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
Less is expected of the #6 guy.
Or #7 or #8. #6 specifically and exclusively isn’t the point.
I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup
I still believe he lacks the physical "health" to "swing a bat effectively" when he's "playing through injuries"
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
I'm ignoring you until you post in the GUBA.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
:(
I’ll have my Master’s at the end of March. I should have some time then.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
That's not stopping you from just posting.
Though, the fact that we had to migrate the forums and now they’re at www.theguba.net/forum might hamper things.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
And your best hitter shouldn't hit third...
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Your best hitter SHOULD hit third.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions
No, this is decidedly not true.
But PT covers it extensively so I won’t repeat.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
From the book I quoted earlier...
The conventional answer is to select #1 and #2 batters whose primary skill is getting on base, and #4 and #5 batters whose primary skill is the RBI hit, usually the extra-base hit. The #3 hitter is chose to have both a high on-base percentage and good power, so he is in effect part of both sections of the line-up; as you might imagine, this will generally mean that he is the best overall hitter on the club.
I think, by and large, around the league, this is employed. Lineups are structured with the best hitter in the 3rd position.
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
When I have to choose between Tango being right and someone else being right, I'm pretty much going with Tango 100% of the time
That section of “The Book” is a. the best section of the work, and b. pretty conclusive when it comes to the main points. I’m sure Walker’s work was cutting-edge at the time, but from rereading those posts, it’s showing its age (in the same way that Moneyball, or rather the specific-statistical-truths sections of Moneyball, is).
There are basically only 3 things you can say about a baseball lineup with any certainty:
The leadoff hitter will very often hit with no outs,
The #2 hitter will very often hit with one out and none on, and
The #3 hitter will very often hit with two outs and none on.
Everything else is rounding error compared to those three facts. Giving your best hitter ample plate appearances while keeping him out of the #3 slot is, in the context of lineup optimization (which is itself rounding error compared to just about any other facet of the game), about the most important thing you can do.
There’s, I suppose, an aesthetic or arguable question as to whether you should put your fourth-best or fifth-best hitter in the #3 slot, but the value of hitters in the 1/2/4 slots blow the rest of the order out of the water.
Normally I hate Jim Leyland’s roster management, but he’s figured this one out. He consistently puts his best hitters around, not in, the #3 slot.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I'm really not interested in arguing line-ups
But going with the “everyone does it, so it must be alright” defense isn’t going to win you the point.
Moving on… PT, why do you feel the need to surf every thread and argue against every point you disagree with? Especially on a thread where the 1st thing out of your mouth is: this topic doesn’t matter!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 11, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Boredom will do strange things to a mind
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Recreational sex is a great idea
You don’t even need a friend!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You mean you can do it with a friend?!?!
This idea keeps getting better and better!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Recreational sex
is that, like, sex on the swings? Because, yeah, that is awesome. So I’ve read.
I'm here to talk about the past.
Not so, my furry terror compatriot
I walk away from many a thread without imposing my will.
The monster at the end of this blog.
you do put the "imp" in "imposing," though
(Beating everyone to the follow-up joke: And I put the “chimp” in “chimposing.”)
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Pot. Kettle. Black.
At least PT is usually arguing facts when he gets his dander up.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Holliday 2nd?
Anyone considered Holliday in 2 hole? And have Buck at 9-spot so in late innings, both Sweeny and Buck can pretty much act as leadoff hitters and Holliday will be in position to drive them in? Can move him to 3rd vs a LEfty.
vs Righties:
Sweeny
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Chavez
Suzuki
Ellis
Crosby
Buck
vs Lefties:
Sweeny
Buck
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Chavez
Suzuki
Ellis
Crosby
The Not-So-Casual Fan
The problem with your vs. righties lineup
Is that in the 7th inning when it’s 3-4-5, the other team can put in their best lefty reliever and the inning is effectively over.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
problem with that arguement
is if any lineup has 3 consecutive lefty hitters, the inning is effectively over in the late innings when a strong lefty reliever comes in with said 3 hitters scheduled to hit
The Not-So-Casual Fan
Isn't that equally true
if the lineup goes Giambi-Crosby-Chavez?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
We're all forgetting that Barton will probably start at 1B a fair amount
So he’ll have to be dealt with. Here’s my take on a generic (not taking into account whether a left or righty is starting) lineup with Barton in there. UncleLeo took the words from my mouth as I also believe the Chavey is best when he puts less pressure on himself. He’s not a ‘winner’ in that sense; he performs best when expectations are low and I think he will do his best work lower in the lineup.
1) Sweeney CF
2) Ellis 2B
3) Cust RF
4) Holliday LF
5) Giambi DH
6) Suzuki C
7) Chavez 3B
8) Crosby SS
9) Barton 1B
I would like to hit Suzuki lower so that he can focus on catching more but let’s face it—he’s one of our most consistent hitters. If we had a good right-handed lead-off hitter (i.e., if Ellis hits a lot better than he did last year) then Cust can move up one slot so that Holliday can hit 3rd. But just as the Warriors don’t have a real PG, the A’s don’t have an ideal lead-off hitter. If Buck plays well in spring training I’m sure the A’s will throw him in the mix but right now he’s on the outside looking in based on last year’s lack of performance.
I’ve alternated L/R as much as possible. Wish we had a good switch hitter or two on the squad as that would make Geren’s life easier.
I agree that if Barton looks particularly good in the spring
and especially, if Buck doesn’t — then Barton may get penciled in at 1b, moving Giambi to dh and Cust to RF. But also since he’s recovering from surgery, they may want to start him in Sacramento.
Barton will be this years 1B, I have little doubt
1) Sweeney CF
2) Cust RF
3) Giambi DH
4) Holliday LF
5) Chavez 3B
6) Suzuki C
7) Barton
8) Crosby
9) Ellis
As much as I hate Crosby and would love to put him on 9th, Ellis is the perfect 9th batter, specially with Cust on the 2nd spot.
Clear its radiance shine...
Chavez
There’s no way you bat Chavez sixth unless he’s in a really bad slump. I say start the season in the fifth spot and then go from there. We can’t afford our big money guy to be in the sixth spot and miss oppurtunities to produce.
Chavez... opportunities to produce... LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!
That’s exactly why I think he should bat 6th.
Oops, there’s another weak infield pop-out with the score tied and a runner on 2B.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
In his career
Chavez has had a significant number of PAs at the 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 spots in the lineup. He’s had his worst performance in the 6 spot, and by quite a bit.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
Stop polluting people's fantasy worlds with your "facts"
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
There are too many variables over the years to draw any conclusions
How about, likely, Chavvy was hitting in the 6th spot all of the times when he was injured. That would have been the only reason to drop him down over the years. Why WOULD he have been producing there?
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Feb 11, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
Let's see: When Chavy is healthy he bats 3rd or 4th,
and when he’s “playing but should be on the DL” he bats 6th…Maybe his lack of productivity in the 6-hole isn’t “the 6-hole” itself…?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I know it means nothing
but I’m never opposed to the snarking of someone who gets facts wrong, no matter how irrelevant those facts are. I heart facts.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
So here's a funny, true story about "facts" -
In teaching debate in 7th grade a few years ago, I mentioned that one key component was … and I wrote on the board … “facts”. I don’t have great handwriting, and one of the kids, totally seriously, looked at it and said, with a puzzled look on his face, “farts?”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh, yeah, that's something I meant to say
I don’t know if there’s any real meaning to the spot in the order thing for Chavez, just that it’s funny the guy is saying he should hit 6th and that’s where he’s failed the most.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
I'd sooner bat him 5th
He scares pitchers and if he’s not healthy enough to bat 5th he’s probably not batting anywhere. I like Cust, Holliday, Giambi, Chavez in a row (in whatever order), and personally I like them 2-5.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Which numbers?
I could prove God statistically. Take the human body alone - the chances that all the functions of an individual would just happen is a statistical monstrosity.
~George Gallup
Just look at his career splits at baseball-reference
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
My lineup:
1.) RF – R. Sweeney
2.) DH – J. Cust
3.) LF – M. Holliday
4.) 1B – J. Giambi
5.) 3B – E. Chavez
6.) C – K. Suzuki
7.) RF – T. Buck
8.) SS – B. Crosby
9.) 2B – M. Ellis
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Feb 11, 2009 2:51 PM PST reply actions
That's the one I like
Except I could go either way on Buck and Sweeney. One bats high, the other bats low, depending on which versions of them we get next year.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
This would probably be the best lineup based on those 9 players vs. RHP
Good L/R balance (about as good as you can get without giving a lesser hitter too many extra PAs), and you don’t put a weak hitter in the 2 spot for some insane reason.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions
The only difference between that lineup and my lineup
is that I would switch Ellis and Sweeney – a pretty minor tweak.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I like it
But I’d bump Chavez to 3 and slide the other two down.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Who cares? Lineups don't matter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I care. And lineups don't matter.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I was in a lineup once.
Not that it mattered, but thought you might care.
I'm here to talk about the past.
I picked you out
I was like, “Oh it’s #4, officer, totally!” And it was.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hey, I know a good lineup story...
It involves quite possibly the worst attorney in the world, who oddly enough, eventually became a judge.
Conventional wisdom has it that he sent more people to prison as a defense attorney.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
I declare a mistrail!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why #3-6
Everyone seems to agree that Cust, Giambi, Holliday and Chavez are our good hitters. OK. And I’ll take your word for it, BBG, that that’s a good order for them to be in. But why put two hitters in front of them? If they’re good, why not bat them #2-5 instead?
(And yes, I see that several of the lineups proposed by other commenters do exactly that.)
For that matter, why not bat them #1-4?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
i agree
that #2-5 will work, as mentioned in my earlier post. but as for #1-4, that wont work because crosby will rarely be on, rendering the one that is leading off useless in the RBI category. however, if #2-5 that issue is resolved.
The Not-So-Casual Fan
+1
I’d like to point out that while RBIs are a bad, mostly useless stat, the meaning behind what rktse is saying is true. You don’t want your power hitters up when nobody’s gonna be on base. A good Buck is getting on base 37%+ of the time.
by thejd44 on Feb 11, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
Idea for the bottom of the lineup
Any chance that we the A’s could DH for the SS and let our their pitchers bat ninth?
"Warm Springs Infernal" - FSU, 2/6/09 DLD
slugger Blanton is gone...)
"it wasn't me, it was that loosy-goosy era!"
by catfish4real on Feb 11, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
I go back to having the
best hitter hit first, second best hitter hit second and so on and so on. This would get the best hitters more at bats in the game. Also, batting order doesnt really matter after the 1st inning, imo. Its not like the leadoff man is going to lead off every 3rd inning (no hit games being the exception), so why not get the best hitters up more often. Here is my batting order for this way of thinking:
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Chavez
Suzuki
Sweeney
Ellis
Buck
Crosby
"Chlorophyll?! More like bore-ophyll!"
Problem is, by leading Holliday off
you ensure him one AB with the bases empty, and by batting him after Crosby you predict a few more.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Interesting concept
but I’ll pass on that one.
1)Sweeney
2)Cust
3)Holliday
4)Giambi
5)Chavvy
6)Suzuki
7)Ellis
8)Buck
9)Crosby
or
1)Ellis
2)Chavvy
3)Holliday
4)Giambi
5)Cust
6)Suzuki
7)Sweeney
8)Crosby
9)Buck
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
lot of concepts but...
…how about some facts:
chavvy wont be healthy > that sucks
ellis wont be healthy > that sucks
holliday is not going to like it here > that sucks
giambi is on retirement here > that sucks
cust is going to set unbreakable all time strikeout record > that sucks
buck havent proven anything yet and im afraid its not going to change > that sucks
crosby > that sucks
suzuki, sweeney > only guys i still believe in
easy mathematics for 2009
"it wasn't me, it was that loosy-goosy era!"
You're right
Might as well wait for football season yeah? Comments like these are the other end of the spectrum and why we need people like PT. But nobody will jump on this one as vehemently.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 12, 2009 12:15 AM PST up reply actions
No, but I'll ignore it - which is also a statement.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bah humbug
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 12, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
...
Depressing Posts >that sucks
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 12, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
.......players make out the lineup card
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am getting a little tired of Macha’s and Geren’s :" I don’t fill out the lineup card, the players do". I am just hoping that this year we can (finally) stabilze the lineup and not have Suzuki or Ellis leading off for a week, then disappearing to the bottom third of the lineup the next week, or Chavy batting 3rd or 4th no matter what!!
Travis Buck
Ryan Sweeney
Matt Holliday
Jason Giambi
Jack Cust
Eric Chavez
Kurt Suzuki
Bobby Crosby
Mark Ellis
What I like about Geren
Is that for a manager he seems to value little things like defense and lineup construction, however unconventional his arrangements may end up being. Maybe this is all Billy’s doing or whatever, but from what I can see with my eyes it’s Geren’s. The fact that he’s made it known that Cust would fit very well in the 2 hole is comforting to me. So with that in mind here are my lineups:
v. RHP:
1. Sweeney (at least to start the year)
2. Cust
3. Holliday (the only way I can think of to break up the lefties)
4. Giambi
5. Chavez
6. Suzuki
7. Buck
8. Crosby
9. Ellis
v LHP:
1. Ellis
2. Cust
3. Giambi
4. Holliday
5.Chavez.
6. Suzuki
7. Buck
8. Crosby
9. Sweeney
In the second lineup I like the idea of putting Holliday 4th for the reasons stated by others above. In both lineups there’s essentially a second leadoff hitter in the 9th spot, which IMO is never a bad idea. I don’t want to see Buck leading off right away because I don’t want him to have another meltdown. Him hitting 7th, coupled with the additions of some veterans to the lineup will really help him have a solidly solid year, health permitting. I’m sure Barton will sneak in there somewhere, but I didn’t really feel like figuring him in right now.
P.S. It still hasn’t sunk in yet that we will have Matt Holliday anchoring the middle of our lineup next year. How awesome is that?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Answer: It's very awesome
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Cust would be great in the 2 hole
Prior to last season, BOS hit Youkilis leadoff and 2nd a ton despite his power-hitter profile because he drew walks and got on base, so why not stick Cust at the top of the order? If Cust is getting on base a Youkilis-like near-40% of the time, who cares if he K’s a lot? Bottom line is he’s setting the table for Holliday et al at a great clip.
"I think an eating contest is really just the beginning of a shitting contest."
- Demetri Martin
bbg
First: great post
Second: i may be interested in going down for a game (never been to a game there)
I'm here to talk about the past.
Crosby 2009: .276 28 hr 82 rbi 25sb
1. Sweeney
2. Cust
3. Holliday
4. Giambi
5. Crosby
6. Chavez
7. Ellis/Buck
8. Suzuki
9. Buck/Ellis
everyday
MJP - Go A's - give Bobby one more year
That might be right for 2009-11 if you're starting with OBP
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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