A Possible "Win-Win" With Holliday?
by Nico on Feb 10, 2009 6:00 AM PST
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PrintSo much of how you feel about the Matt Holliday trade centers around how long you think one can reasonably hope to have him in Oakland. If you're convinced Holliday will leave as a free agent after 2009 if he's not traded sooner, then Street, Smith, and C. Gonzalez feels like a lot of 2010 strength, and "future talent" in general, to give up for a guy who will only be in Oakland while the young pitchers are emerging - but not truly emerged - onto the scene. On the other hand, if you think Holliday might be on the Opening Day roster in some season that starts with a 201_, then naturally the deal looks a lot more worth making.
Before you explain how the A's can't bid with the likes of the Yankees, how multiple big-spenders like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels may all be looking for an OFer next off-season, how someone will offer Holliday 6-7 years and $20-25million/year, how only a brain-dead idiot on a diet of naivete and stupid-juice could see Holliday in LF for Oakland beyond 2009, consider this possible "win-win" situation: The A's sign Holliday to an extension for 2010-11, two years, $50million.
Why it could be good for the A's:
- The contract keeps Holliday in Oakland for two seasons in which the A's have a chance to be special. Led by more seasoned versions of Gallagher, Eveland, and Gio Gonzalez, don't be surprised if by April 2010, at least two of Cahill, Anderson, and Mazzaro have already gotten their feet wet, navigated a few bumps in the road, and settled into being solid starters who are only getting better. Feeling skeptical? I haven't even mentioned Dallas Braden, Josh Outman, and James Simmons. Add Holliday to Chavez and the current group of cost-controlled hitters (Cust, Suzuki, Sweeney, Buck, Cunningham, Barton et al) and the 2010 team is scary-good and only about to get better in 2011. That's arguably paying for two shots at the World Series.
- $50million over two years is a heck of a lot for Oakland, but it's doable because it's a short-term commitment at a time when the A's have some payroll flexibility. Without going into the contract by contract details, after not signing Furcal or a veteran starting pitcher the A's can do it, and if you weigh the benefits of putting a highly competitve team on the field in 2010-11, you can even make a financial argument that the A's should do it.
Why it could be good for Holliday:
- As a coveted free agent in a bad economy, Holliday can probably hope to get something like a 6 year, $140million deal, give or take a year, give or take $10million total. But if Holliday waits until 2011 to become a free agent, the economic climate is likely to be more favorable than it will be in 2009.
- If Holliday takes his long-term contract after 2009, when he is 29 years old, after that runs out he will be in the position of looking for a shorter deal when he is about 35 years old - similar to the situation Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe found themselves in this Winter. Will Holliday be offered better than $25million/year at that point? Likely not. So why not take a really good $25million/year deal NOW, and then a long-term deal that can take him all the way to the twilight of his career - when at 37, he can still seek a third short-term deal to end his career?
Now if you think Holliday won't get offered nearly as much when he's 31 as when he's 29, then that's a big consideration. I believe that he'll get paid more because more teams have money to spend than because he's 29 vs. 31 - at either age, for a team that can afford to pay out, Holliday is going to be a very appealing player to have for the next 6 years. I'm guessing the "bad economy" factor and "two years older" factor might roughly offset one another.
So by staying two more years with Oakland, and playing for a winning team with a positive clubhouse environment, the Math, comparatively, could look something like this:
Sign 2-year extension with A's
2010-11 (ages 30-31): $50million
2012-17 (ages 32-37): $140million
2018-19 (ages 38-39): $20million?
Take long-term contract after 2009
2010-15 (ages 30-35): $140million
2016-19 (ages 36-39): $70million?
With those figures (and I'm just guessing as best I can here), the dollar totals would come out the same - except that by staying two years with the A's, Holliday is paid more sooner, which is always good when you want your money to make money. And he gets to play for a really cool team that could be really good. And it would make me really happy. Not seeing the downside here!
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Call me a brain-dead idiot.
Or don’t.
I like it Nico. I especially like how the special years keep getting closer and closer. Now it’s only a matter of getting Holliday and Boras to buy off on it. But there are some positives there, making you happy the thing that probably sticks out the most.
I'm here to talk about the past.
OK...You're a Brain-Dead Idiot!
Whadda I win?
by GreenNGoldSooner on Feb 10, 2009 6:19 AM PST up reply actions
Bada-Bing
Your team is your child...You love it no matter what.
by TheRaiderWay on Feb 10, 2009 6:58 AM PST up reply actions
making you happy the thing that probably sticks out the most
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
So that's what it's like to learn about sex from Yoda.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Feb 10, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
awesome you are
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 10, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
I like it
I think the problem for Holliday would be security. What happens if he gets injured/sick/goes on sabbatical to study buddhism in the himalayas during those first two years? Signing that long contract at the start would as least protect him in case of the former. You can’t really predict the future, and taking a long term contract when you can get it can be reassuring. So, I don’t know how confident Holliday would be about his future. I suppose that if he is confident, he’d take that shorter term contract. But if he isn’t…
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
Even more importantly, Boras doesn't get as big a cut of the short contract
I think if we’re keeping him it’ll have to be on a longer deal. That said, I still wanna de Holliday.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Boras works for Holliday, not the other way around
If Boras were advising his clients against their own interests, he’d stop getting the best clients very quickly.
Thank you!
Boras is generally chosen for his ability to get top dollar, but it’s not the only consideration and Boras is not the boss – the player is.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh I agree
Except, of course, that I think Boras is the reason Manny isn’t getting his $20M options exercised right now.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
yes, that is the problem
I think we’ve seen that for the best players, excluding the aged, defensive-inept Manny, the economy has not affected contracts. there will still be takers in the form of Red Sox and Yankees. And here in Boston there have been a lot of rumors on interest in Holliday.
I like the idea, Nico, but I think it is quite likely Holliday will get a long-term offer, and it would be very difficult for him to turn it down. Age 30-31 is not an ideal time to be gambling with your eventual decline in performance.
Save Rajai Davis
Scouting in India
If Holliday goes to study buddhism in India, which is a really funny idea, DLJ, the A’s could pay him extra to scout there. Didn’t we consider the other day moving the A’s to India because that is where the jobs are? Indians live for cricket, which has many skills transferable to baseball.
this is an interesting question in general
there was an experiment done a few years back about the transferability of skills of baseball to cricket and vice versa. the conclusion was that the two games are not especially compatible. caveats – it was a very small experiment, over a short period of time.
it would seem to me that some of the physical abilities – strength, hand to eye co-ordination, being able to stand around for long periods not doing much – definite translate, but it’s a matter of finding players young enough, before they become too set in their ways.
that said, this guy could hit some dingers, no matter what sport he’s playing
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 10, 2009 8:37 AM PST up reply actions
the one at 1.16 is pretty amazing, in fact
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 10, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
that is indeed
it certainly is a cool sport as well
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
i do love cricket a lot
it’s one of the things i miss most about no longer living in the UK
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 10, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions
If I'm Holliday I take the $140M deal first and worry about what comes later....later.
Also I’d much rather sign with the Red Sox, Angels or Yankees than the A’s if the money is close. The only chance the A’s have is to really go after him aggressively, making it clear that they want him more than anyone else…and that may well take 8/$180. I’d do it if he had a big year in 2009, but it doesn’t seem like Beane’s style. He’s a bargain hunter by nature. Now if he had a coupon…
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Sadly I think this is true
The real calculation is $100M+ guaranteed vs. $50M guaranteed. Holliday and his agent know that he’s one injury away from this being his last payday.
I think the A’s will have to be close to the biggest total $ on the market to win here. And, if Holliday is producing and the A’s have the $$ to do it, I think they should.
Stewart 7, Clemens / McNamee 1
by eastcoasta'sfan on Feb 10, 2009 7:51 AM PST up reply actions
A few problems
First boras is his agent so there goes the home town discount or even a contract less than 5 years. Boras will want maxium pay out.
Second A bidding war will be over his contract and you will include Yanks, Mets, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox, Dodger if they don’t sign manny, and even the rockies. So they A’s must out bid everyone else and if the A’s are bidding than the Giants just to be a pain in the rear will get involved.
Third economy down swing. Lets see how the recession hits the owners pocket books. It may not be wise to sign long term.
Just enjoy Holiday the time the A’s have him and worry about his pending free agency when the time comes.
Just want to chime in...
The A’s absolutely afford to sign Holliday to the contract Nico is talking about. Just doing some rough math but the A’s would need to be able to support a $65 million payroll in 2010 and a $85 million payroll in 2011 to make this happen. (The 2011 number includes the options on Chavez and Ellis.)
The A’s current payroll sits between $55-60 million.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Ok
Am I the only one really excited for this season to start?
Discovered by the Germans in 1904, they named it San Diego, which of course in German means a whale's vagina. .
What season?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
wabbit
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 10, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions
norbit
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
i don't get it
there’ll be no need to sign holliday next season after the A’s win the world series by four goals this year. haven’t you heard nothing???
Billy Beane loves soccerball, and so should you
by alea iacta est on Feb 10, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions
Two words:
Andruw.
Jones.
Holliday would be insane to sign a two-year contract. And why would he sign it in Oakland, anyway? Even for that period, he can easily get a better deal from the Yankees. They need a left fielder, they have a truckload of cash to offer— you might as well fit the man out for pinstripes in advance.
I’d describe this post as “clutching at straws,” but that might be understating things. No one involved in the situation has given even the slightest hint that the A’s have any hope of signing him after this season. Until I see such, I’m not bothering to worry about it.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I agree
There is no way, no how that Holiday would sign with the A’s unless both he and Boras lose their mind. Holiday is another Oakland A in the long line of Oakland A’s who move on to greener richer pastures. The down economy doesn’t stop teams like the Yanks and the Sox from big paydays. (Tex, and CC anyone?)
If the magic stadium ferry comes down and is able to build the A’s a new stadium in 8 months maybe they could spring for him by counting on all the new revenue. The A’s formula is clear, develop the young guys you can lock up for a few years and try to catch lighting in a bottle like the Rays did.
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 10, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
a ballplayer's
“big payday” window can be very small. The window may quickly close for various reasons, so I can’t imagine someone not taking full advantage of it when given the opportunity to do so.
The Not-So-Casual Fan
Opt-Out Clause(s)
Boras will want an 8-Year Deal w/ opt-out clauses after 2 years, 4 years, and/or 6 years (Is that possible?). I see Holliday signing with the RedSox for about 165 Million. The A’s have a better chance of signing Jason Bay for the Years/$$$ you are talking about.
8 years.....NO F%$#NG Way!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
There's that sweet mid-February optimism
While I would love for it to be possible, I don’t see anyway that Holliday will consider taking a two year deal like that (other than him suffering some catastrophic injur). Even with the nosedive the FA market took this off-season, the top guys still got top dollar on long term contracts.
I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that we are going to get to watch Holliday play in the green and gold for one season only so we might as well enjoy it while we can.
Trade Holliday for Bay Straight-Up Mid-Season
at least u get a chance to resign Bay
The Not-So-Casual Fan
Not straight up
You could get Bay as the center piece and some prospects. I am pretty sure Holiday is more highly valued than Bay, especially if he starts tearing it up in the 1st half. That would be nice to see, a decent 1st half from the Green and Gold.
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 10, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty tough to negotiate a trade and sign (for both sides) deal that includes a Boras client
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Feb 10, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
that's what we got last year
I want a decent first and second half
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Feb 10, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
Well it is obvious that the A's need to try and sign Holliday
The team hasn’t had much luck in the past with free agents, but then again there hasn’t seemed to be much effort.
Even if they can’t I think one year of Holliday+top draft pick is worth Street, Smith and Gonzalez. We’ll see.
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Feb 10, 2009 10:38 AM PST reply actions
"Even if they can’t I think one year of Holliday+top draft pick is worth Street, Smith and Gonzalez. We’ll see."
Unless we get really lucky with out picks from him, Im not so sure.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Street was going to return those picks anyway.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Yeah...
So Beane better sign Holliday or get a hell of a trade for him.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Was he?
Street ain’t that good.
The Not-So-Casual Fan
He'll be a Type A
Just as Holliday will be.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
really?
i can’t seem to find info on how to distinguish what type a player will be if they leave through FA
The Not-So-Casual Fan
Well
It’s a complicated system contrived by the Elias Sports Bureau but basically I think it uses a players past two seasons prior to FA to determine whether that player’s grade. Since Street has had good seasons pretty much his whole career there’s a great chance he’ll be a Type A when he hits FA.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
I felt odd using it
But I thought “boiled from the depths of hell” was too dramatic.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
There's no (un)pleasing you is there?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions
Figured that was coming...
(waits patiently)
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
your speculation
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Feb 10, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Not really
Street had his worst season last year, yet:
J.J. Putz A 89.764
Joe Nathan A 88.568
Francisco Rodriguez A 87.927
Huston Street A 84.369
Mariano Rivera A 84.135
Joakim Soria A 83.115
Jonathan Papelbon A 83.027
Rafael Betancourt A 82.152
Ron Mahay A 81.773
Hideki Okajima A 81.015
Damaso Marte A 79.323
Scot Shields A 79.294
Bobby Jenks A 77.632
Joaquin Benoit A 76.349
Scott Downs A 76.174
George Sherrill A 75.970
Joba Chamberlain A 75.153
Troy Percival A 75.007
Matt Thornton A 74.628
Octavio Dotel A 73.520
C.J. Wilson A 73.053
Pat Neshek A 71.770
Rafael Perez A 71.449
Darren Oliver A 71.304
The guy would have to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel to not be a type A two years hence.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
So we could have traded Street for Joba straight up? Damn.
I find it rather amazing that Putz was top of the list given his 2008.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
If the A's made the offer today
at least some of the risk to holiday is off the table. he would in essence have a 3 year guaranteed deal with the A’s. They could even bump up his ’09 salary as part of the extension. That would give him more money now.
Still, probably a pipe dream, but there is a bigger chance (while still being very small) if this offer was made this year during spring training, than if it was made next november. at least now we can try to oversell the uncertainty and the bad economy that there will be after the season. In november that wont be possible. He will never sign for two years, if he makes it to november without an extension.
Well..
If we ever get a new stadium, Holliday would be a cornerstone to build around and sort of become our very own Barry Bonds. Of course, we’re not getting a new stadium, won’t be resigning holliday, and will still have these same false hopes the next time our best player is a free agent.
Wow.
Your post left me with blue balls.
The cornerstone that the A’s are building around are the cost-controlled young players they have now. Holliday is just a rental.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Feb 10, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
Holliday's contract
Would be just about up by the time the new stadium opens anyway.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
Yo Ziggy!
If you’re reading this, print it out and give it to Holliday pls!
Nice work, Nico.
It's a real good baseball town but my team is across the bay - Brett Dennen
Holliday
There is no chance he would ever take a two year deal over a 6-7 contract (valued at $140 million).
As a side note: Can you imagine having $140 million to your name by age 36?
I would consider that an appropriate sum for my lifestyle. Just enough to pay my bar tabs & hotel bills.
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
Of course, can you manage being unemployable by age 43?
Well, I don’t you but…hope not!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If I had $140 million
(or even $2 million) I would be unemployable by choice.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
If the A's are serious about re-signing Holliday
they need to not try any low balling and make a “serious offer”.
Nico, I think your idea is very creative and indeed thinking a bit outside the box. However, if I’m Beane and Wolff, I’m going for the gold and lock the guy up to at least a 5-6 year deal that pays him between 18-20 million. This offer is both reasonable and in Holliday’s market value range, in my opinion.
I’m sure Beane can make his pitch for reasons as to why "Holliday should stay and play for the A’s but 120-140 million is gonna be the first thing that jumps out at me if I’m Holliday. Then you’ve made your move and let him decide if he wants to take it or wait for more money….
Nothing personal. it’s just business, right?
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
It's not reasonable and it's not in his market range
(and it’s not a matter of opinion)
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
So mrod, let's say Boras comes back and says
“You want to wow me before I see what the Yankees will offer? OK, 7 years, $175million and he’s yours.” Now what do you do?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
First let me say that it is my opinion, PT. You have yours and I have mine, just like a certain body part that we all posses.
And why is that not reasonable as an initial offer? Before you get the chance at FA this is just hypothetical. Not saying he or Boras say “yes”, just a pre-emptive strike, that’s all. I don’t know how many years Holliday is looking for and I was just responding to Nico’s original idea.
As to what Nico’s “Yankee counter propoasl” goes….At that point are you, if you’re Beane, gonna seriously even respond to that? Probably not and the Yankees or some other team are gonna win Holliday’s services. I’m talking before Holliday being offered something in FA.
I think 6 years is the max I, personally, would be willing to go for Holliday. 6 years 140 million = 23.3 million per year.
So, that is not competitive? That’s not fair? That isn’t in “market” range? If it isn’t then best of luck to Mr. Holliday in another uniform starting next year.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
I think the offer you suggest would be too low,
but I also think you’re fully entitled to your opinion that it isn’t. And it IS a matter of opinion. For those who scoff and say they know what the market will bear, I ask you, “Did you think Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson and Bobby Abreu and Orlando Cabrera would be in the positions they’re in, looking at the offers we’ve been hearing about? How about the amounts it took to sign Giambi and Burrell?”
But to interest Holliday in not testing the market, I think the A’s would have to offer him $25million/year. And I could be wrong.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Look at what Mark Teixeira got.
Now look at what you’re offering.
Would you still consider your offer as “reasonable”?
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Feb 10, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions
In fairness, Mark Teixeira has an "x" in his name,
which is worth its weight in gold if you can get it on a triple letter score.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or at least
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Here's the GOOD thing about the Red Sox and Yankees needing left fielders next year:
1. We know that the Yankees and Red Sox will finish with one of the 15 best records in baseball at the end of the season.
2. Matt Holliday will yield the A’s two excellent draft picks – one of them near the end of the first round, and the other one at No. 31 overall – when he signs with one of the perennially elite teams. Only the perennially elite teams believe they can afford him. He’s not gonna sign with the Royals or the Pirates or any other dreck that has a protected pick. And he’s very likely to grade out as the best available free agent using the Elias rankings, so we won’t get screwed into receiving the Yankees’ second- or third-round pick as compensation, the way the Blue Jays did with Burnett.
With the A’s scouting department and FO, I would rather have the No. 27 and No. 31 overall picks in next year’s draft than Carlos Gonzalez, given the current makeup of the roster. I know many of you don’t feel that way. Personally I don’t think CarGon was ever going to post a .350 OPS in the AL. The pitching’s too good and his plate discipline is too bad. He’s now in the best place to give him a chance to reach his ceiling.
One of those two players drafted at #27 or #31 will end up being more valuable than Carlos Gonzalez.
There is a way to like the Matt Holliday trade even if he leaves after one season.
{Ducks and hides just as PaulThomas fires a copy of “Apellate Advocacy” at my head across the Hastings library}
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Feb 10, 2009 4:40 PM PST reply actions
Personally I don’t think CarGon was ever going to post a .350 OPS in the AL.
I mean yeah Carlos had a bad year last year but even he was able to do this much.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's. For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score.
I agree on the CarGon front
He could be a good player, but I’m not too worried about him being a superstar. There’s only one flaw in your plan of getting first round picks, though. What if another big market team, who doesn’t have such a good season, swoops in on Holliday? I’m thinking of someone like the Angels. I mean, it’s plausible they don’t wind up one of the top 15 teams in MLB. But I could see them making a Holliday signing to a) screw the A’s and b) to make their fanbase happy.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 10, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions
It's possible, but I don't think it's likely
The Yankees a. need a left fielder, and b. have more money than anyone else. Amazing as it is considering what they signed up this year, they have $30 million coming off their payroll prior to next season. Even if they don’t raise said payroll a cent, they can still blow the A’s (or anyone else) out of the Holliday waters.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
This is important, and it's the key point in any sort of Holliday extension talk.
The Yankees can pay him A-Rod money if they want to and actually lower payroll for 2010.
Anybody that doesn’t think Boras knows this…
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
I'm more likely to fling Apellate Advocacy than PT is
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Or a pellet of dookie
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Feb 10, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions
The problem with that
Street’s gonna be a Type A FA, who will sign somewhere. Now you did point out a flaw in the system. Street’s destination is not as guaranteed as Holliday. It’s quite possible that Huston will land on a team with a protected pick or on a team that signed better FAs. However he’s going to get the A’s a pick in the 40ish range and another pick. What this means is that you believe the 27th and 31st pick is more than the 40th and another pick (let’s say a second rounder) PLUS whatever you could trade CarGo and Smith for. You don’t believe Gonzalez would succeed. Perfectly valid. Do you think all 29 other teams think the same and would not even offer the difference in talent between a second and late first rounder?
Obviously this argument is a bit of oversimplification as Holliday allows the A’s one shot at contention as well as future draft picks. But without the further moves to back it up, the Holliday move is not a success. If the A’s had signed Furcal and Giambi, it might be a success for Holliday to stay only a year. But if I were to pull an oaktoon and predict odds, as of now, I’d give the A’s a ~40% chance at taking the division. They’re the favorites over the Angels but barely. And Texas and Seattle, with a little lightning in a bottle, could snatch the title.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Street as a Type A
I have far, far less faith in Street’s ability to maintain Type A status over the next two years than I do of Holliday maintaining his through ’09.
Street is a much greater injury risk than Holliday.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Feb 10, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
It's bizarrely easy to be a type A bullpen pitcher
Basically, if a team uses you as their closer for like four months out of 2 years, it is impossible for you not to be Type A. Brad Ziegler was already Type B this season and he didn’t play a day in the majors in 2007.
The only way Street is not Type A is if he’s released or undergoes some kind of major surgery.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
As A's fans, I think we'd all like Matt Holliday to remain an Oakland A past 2009.
And we’d all try to think up various, incredulous ways for it to happen.
But deep down, I think we all know that it’s
not.
going.
to.
happen.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Add a "probably" and I'm right with you.
Those who say “there’s NO way!” are wrong even if they turn out to be right. There’s a chance, just not a very good one.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Personally I feel that the ~1% chance of signing Holliday is not nearly enough to warrant a probably
But hey, to each his own.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Feb 10, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it's more like 10%, personally.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ditto
I think Holliday will be signed to a deal that makes sense, and that therefore we should sign him. I also think that the numbers will probably be too large and scary for us to actually do it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I must have missed something.
In what imaginationland scenario do the A’s ever make an offer to pay someone this much money? Why is this being discussed as if it is possible? Did the A’s make a bunch of extra cash last year that I am not aware of? Did the entire philosophy of the organization change and I missed that news story? Aren’t we in a recession and aren’t we talking about the same low budget team?
If this is a wish list thread then I would like to resign Holiday, trade for Teixeira, have a starting rotation of Santana, Harden (in my scenario he never gets hurt and throws 230 innings a year), Beckett, Verlander, and Webb. Also Rickey Henderson unretires and is magically rejuvenated to his 1989 self. This is more likely than the A’s resigning Holliday.
If by some miracle this did happen I would probably be fired for laughing and crying uncontrollably at my desk. I realize I am dumping on the parade but the talk of the draft picks or possibly a mid season trade seems more feasible.
"Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I've replied "if you could somehow split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers"" - Author Bill James in The Bill James Handbook (2008)
by rollie_fingers_moustache on Feb 11, 2009 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
What you missed is that there's almost no one else on the team making more than the minimum
So they could both pay Holliday AND have a reasonable payroll (at least for the next couple years) without too much trouble.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
OT - Today has been Poochini's best day since the transfusion a week ago
He almost seems like himself. Getting my hopes up? No. Enjoying the heck out of it? Yuppers.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
"Don't cry that it's going away. Smile that it ever happened at all."
To paraphrase one of my favorite perspectives on mortality.
I switched Cabreras when your back was turned.
Mortality or erections?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I like the reasoning here.
But I just don’t see it being prudent to sign a player for more than $15 million a year in real dollars. Not without having a pretty good idea that that kind of financial comittment to player salary wouldn’t yield a matching revenue stream from fan spending.
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