Dunn/Abreu looking cheaper and cheaper. Move Buck to CF?
by Nate on Feb 1, 2009 10:05 PM PST
118 comments
I'd like to expound on this with relevant data from CHONE, UZR et cetera, but all the junk food I've eaten makes me tired, even if very little of it was tryptophan-laden turkey. Still, I'll try to do a good enough job of it to justify a FanPost rather than FanShot. A few things first:
- The A's are a team on a budget.
- To compete, they need to seek out inefficiencies in the market, such as undervalued commodities.
- Moneyball was about this search and not about a love affair with high-OBP sluggers with poor defense.
This should not be news to anyone reading this site. What is also likely not news is that high-OBP sluggers with poor defense seem to be the undervalued commodities of the season. What might be news is that the best way to improve the A's right now would be to sign another high-OBP slugger with poor defense.
We've discussed improving our shortstop position. Cabrera would be expensive, and would, in many people's opinions, not provide enough improvement for the cost. Outside of Cabrera, there don't seem to be a lot of options. Tejada has been mentioned, but he'd be even more expensive, and again it's questionable just how much improvement we'd see there. Also, Houston's front office appears inclined to continuing to pretend that they're a competitive team.
We've discussed improving our starting pitching. The problem there is that there just aren't a lot of great options. Sheets, easily the best pitcher left, will command a high price despite his injury history. The rest of the options seem to be various shades of mediocre, and for a team that places a premium on dollar value, free agent pitchers are about the least efficient way to improve your team.
So what's left to improve on? How about center field? There's no consensus that Sweeney, Denorfia or Cunningham are likely to be particularly good in 2009, nor is there anyone out there on the FA market likely to be any better. What is out there are guys like Dunn and Abreu, quality bats with lead gloves. This is the part I'm flaking on in this post, where I try and project the math, but what we'd lose in defense by dropping from Sweeney to Buck and from Buck to Dunn or Abreu, seems like it could be more than made up by the increase in offense that comes from Abreu or Dunn vs Sweeney. Off the top of my head, it seems like a 1-2 win increase in total.
Or that could be all the Ruffles talking. This make sense to anyone else?
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What the Buck?!?
Everybody keeps talking about Buck like his September numbers are some sort of guarantee that he’s now the man. Maybe it’s me, but Buck still has alot to prove. Until then, and barring some major revelations in spring training, Sweeney should get the nod in CF over Buck.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Feb 1, 2009 10:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you, Uncle Leo.
Everyone is so excited over a player who is completely unproved. The opposite is true of Sweeney. He was one of the most consistent hitters on the team last year.
by IM4Oakgal on Feb 1, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't see how sweeney is any more proven than buck.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Feb 1, 2009 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Buck’s career wOBA: .350
Sweeney’s career wOBA: .313
and Buck was a better hitter in the minors to boot. I’ll concede Sweeney is slightly better on defense, to the tune of perhaps 5 runs, but that’s not nearly enough to make up for the gap in hitting ability.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 1, 2009 11:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the gap in hitting?
buck absolutely sucked at the Major League level last season, “career” numbers are crap when they are about a seasons worth at most.
Sweeney is likewise unproven. But at this point, I’d take the guy who actually played well enough to stay in the majors an entire season rather than the one who has yet to.
by jeffro on Feb 2, 2009 4:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If "career" numbers crap because they're based on very few AB why are last season's
numbers more telling?
Sweeney was decent last year by A’s standards but no great shakes by league standards. He’s an OK stopgap but not a star, nor even someone I’d count on for more than the coming year.
Buck’s problem is that he can’t stay on the field. Neither is “proven” in the sense that I’d want to sign them to a long term deal. It’s still open tryouts in the OF.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2009 6:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's basically what I meant, albeit worded differently
But, while I’m all for open tryouts, I’d still pencil in Sweeney at the start of ST since he has proven that he actually can stay on the field.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Feb 2, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he was injured as well last year
albeit less than buck, but still.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 2, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Alot less.
This is the A’s we’re talking about too… some kind of injury is required, it’s just a matter of length and frequency.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Feb 2, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot is two words
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 6:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your response was missing a period.
Quote marks around “A lot” would have been appropriate, too. ;-)
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
by UncleLeo on Feb 3, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but a lot is still two words
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and sorry i forgot those
i will add them here " " and .
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"consistency" is only a plus if you're consistently good.
In 506 Major League plate appearances, Buck has an OPS of .806. In 517 plate appearances, Sweeney’s is .700.
by Nate on Feb 1, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"good" is only a plus if you're consistent
Having the higher numbers is fine and dandy, but doesn’t help the team much if you’re unavailable for the line-up more often than not.
I don’t see where anybody in this thread suggested Sweeney was top notch, btw.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Feb 2, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Buck
has really only had one bad year in his short career. Including his minors years of course. I think Buck is a fine player and will have a great year. Same goes for Barton.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 1, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have good reason for optimism, but...
…Buck’s two major league years were plagued by injury and inconsistency.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Feb 1, 2009 11:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
More of the former than the latter.
Buck has more upside with the bat in my opinion and Sweeney is a better with the glove an he has a plus arm. They are different beasts but I like what both of them bring to the table. Health, in my opinon, is waht it all boils down to.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 3, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As tempting is it is to have their bats in the line-up...
I think sweeney is underrated and Buck will bounce back to his rookie year numbers if not better. Sweeney was great last year, hitting almost .300 with a body type that looks like it can fill out and hit for more power. Buck could end up being just as good offensively as Abreu. I think his rookie year/september numbers are more of his actual projections than his one wasted year last year. I
I’d rather have some money available for a midseason tradee if were in contention, or keep it towards re-signing Holliday at the end of the year if we dont trade him.
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 1, 2009 11:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Zero chance
we sign Holiday.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 1, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think if he leads us to a 90-win season and a playoff run
then Wolff will pony up the money. Not saying I expect it to happen, but I think we would re-sign him if it did.
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 1, 2009 11:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a chance..
we will get just as much as Teix got.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 2, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He will get*
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 2, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And since he's better that might be a decent deal.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2009 6:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Syphon, there is NOT a 0% chance
Maybe it’s not a good chance, but it’s not 0. There’s a big difference, even, between 0 and 1. There’s only a 1 chance I will be sober tomorrow, but there is a 0% chance I will have sex with Jose Lima’s wife. (Because I continue not to return her calls.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 2, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I hear what your saying
but do you really deep down think the A’s hand out a 7 year 160mil contract. I mean really do you think they are capable of doing that? I really really dont.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 2, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do I? No. Do I think there's a chance? Sure.
A 40% chance? No. A 4% chance? Sure.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 2, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How great would it be tho
if he plays well… isnt traded. Enjoys his time here. Sees that the A’s are a team on the rise and signs an extension the A’s can afford.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Feb 2, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is that the better he plays, the more he’ll cost.
by Lovejoy on Feb 3, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly
I think there’s a 50% chance that we shoud sign him to whatever contract he ends up getting.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Feb 4, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
lets just hope he earns his keep in 2009
i was wong to do that stuff
by jaylikewise on Feb 2, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
comments
Sweeney was great last year, hitting almost .300 with a body type that looks like it can fill out and hit for more power.
I haven’t spent as much time analyzing Sweeney’s “body type”, but I can tell you that his minor league ISO is .114, so there’s basically nothing in his professional history that suggests much power potential.
by Nate on Feb 1, 2009 11:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
a lot of scouting reports say he could fill out and add power
also, use the reply button
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 1, 2009 11:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Such as?
Care to link to those scouting reports?
And I did use the reply button. It’s why my reply is slightly to the right of yours.
by Nate on Feb 1, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld goes on to say that when he fills out more they believe he will be a 25 homerun guy who can hit for average.
http://allyankeeinfo.blogspot.com/2007/02/white-sox-1-prospect-ryan-sweeney.html
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 1, 2009 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
rotoworld = scouting reports?
i don’t know, maybe there are rotoworld scouts… but i doubt it.
also, it’s not over two years later, and he’s still not hitting for power. is there some sort of timeframe here?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 1, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it's NOW over two years later...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 1, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WHICH IS IT MAKE UP UR MIND!
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 2, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
scouts is always a mysterious commodity
Goldstein, Neyer, Sickels, the BA people all claim to talk to scouts but how many and how much and just who they are is unknown. Law takes the approach of deeming himself a scout – problem solved. I thought it was interesting when minorleaguebaseball asked a bunch of scouts to rate prospects, the list got little notice and caused consternation among the “experts” on blogs and forums.
Rotoworld authors might talk to scouts, but my impression of the place is a news aggregator with a couple guys who write some good stats articles.
by Lovejoy on Feb 3, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and if my aunt had a...
she would be my uncle…
look, i hope he starts hitting home runs, but his swing does not generate power. he has an inside-out swing and doesn’t drive the ball in games.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Feb 1, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hey flip,
im guessing you went to chabot. what do you think of the two guys who are playing ball now for Oregon? Anyone I should be watching for this season?
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 2, 2009 12:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A fellow Duck!
I’m looking forward to this upcoming season. Should be fun.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 2, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ricky and fleck
both pretty good. i played with ricky for a season, and he committed to fresno after his freshman year. he has great downward movement on his fastball. got drafted by arizona last year but didn’t sign, obviously.
fleck went on his mormon mission during my two years at chabot, but i guess the scouts were all over him until they heard that he was going on his mission. he was the reliever of the year his sophomore year. from everything i’ve heard, he’s dirty.
you’ll like watching them both.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Feb 3, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, that's a link to a Yankees blog post
from two years ago that references “Rotoworld” without linking or specifying who/where/what that came from.
FAIL
by Nate on Feb 1, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ok, my point is, i think he is a really good hitter
i think he will be a .300 hitter for many years, and a very solid leadoff hitter. i think he has a CHANCE to hit about 15 hr’s but i will settle for 10. Regardless, he is a valuable asset without power, with his defense and his BA. He could contribute from the leadoff spot or be an even more valuable 9 hitter.
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Feb 1, 2009 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no such thing as a "valuable" 9 hitter
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2009 6:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Guillen
circa 2006
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Feb 2, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen's hit 9th for the Tigers like once in his career...
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There’s long been a disconnect between what scouts see as Sweeney’s power ceiling and his actual observed production. He’s always been able to knock them out in batting practice, and some of his in-game homers have been monsters (last year he had 3 over 400 feet, including a 426 footer). Indeed, 4 of his 5 longballs were greater than MLB median HR distance.
The problem, as far as I can tell, is that his normal swing is totally wrong for hitting home runs. I wouldn’t expect even A-Rod to hit home runs if he bunted every time he was at the plate, and Sweeney’s slappy inside-out swing isn’t much of an improvement on that.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 1, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sweeny's power problem doesn't stem from "needing to fill out.
The reason Sweeny has no power is because he hits like he’s a leadoff guy even though he’s built like a middle of the order hitter.
Until he reworks his entire swing we can wait for his power to develop all we want, he’s just not going to get the lift on the ball to hit more then singles or doubles.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Feb 1, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
why don’t YOU use the reply button
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 1, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 2, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I need to learn how to post images. It would make my references less subtle.
by Rocktopus on Feb 2, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just a good vintage Simpsons reference
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 2, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Like, that is
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
by Joey C. on Feb 2, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You might not have spent much time analyzing Sweeney's body type...
But I guarantee that a lot of AN women have.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Feb 2, 2009 6:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And you should add: Your exhaustive research has shown that
guys with a great ass like Sweeney’s average 21 HRs / season. You have a great feel for these things.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 2, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
by mrod on Feb 3, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That comment deserves a
+ .
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my problem with this concept
Abreu and Dunn are horrible fielders and not improving. Depending on who you ask, they come out as between 10 and 15 runs below average with the glove— let’s call it 12. By contrast, Buck is about 5 runs above average in a corner, 5 below average in center. Sweeney is about average in center.
So you’re looking at a 17 run downgrade in the corner and another 5 runs in center— 22 runs in all. Abreu and Dunn are much better hitters than Sweeney… about 22 runs better, in fact. Even if you’re optimistic and say it’s more like 30 than 22, how much are you willing to pay for a one-win upgrade (and one that interferes with prospect development at that)? $5 million, at most? Even in this market, they have to be able to find work for more than that.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 1, 2009 11:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, it's not much of an upgrade
It does however give the A’s more depth. Depth is necessary with Buck and Sweeney’s injury and performance history. It also frees them up to trade one of Holliday/Sweeney/Buck/Cunningham.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Feb 2, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
even if they’re not much of an improvement, i’ll take either one (but preferably dunn).
the season is starting soon and they’re both still unemployed. and they’re not the only ones (sheets, manny, cabrera, etc.).
the a’s should at least make lowball offers to 4/5 of those guys (not manny, obv), because they just might accept.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 2, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
unless they sign the guy to a long-term deal, which is probably independently inadvisable unless the terms are very favorable. Otherwise, you have lots of outfielders in 2009 and then no outfielders in 2010.
As for depth, the A’s don’t lack for depth at all. The 40-man roster is pretty much jammed to the gills with “depth” in the outfield.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 12:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
over the last three years
the a’s have gone into the season with a lot more depth than usual at certain positions (i have speculated that it’s in response to steroids/greenie testing), yet it’s never enough.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 2, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. This team should never plan to have anyone playing 150 games. Certainly not
Buck or Sweeney. The 40-man “depth” sucks. Denorfia, Murton, Patterson, Coleman, Davis and Robnett take up space but none is a starting caliber major league player. None should block someone like Dunn.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2009 6:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The point isn't that Dunn is "blocking" them
The point is that he adds virtually nothing. I’m not concerned about Matt Murton’s career prospects, I just think there are better ways (Cabrera, Sheets, team bank account, fan giveaway) to spend $10M at this point.
If the team hadn’t already traded for Matt Holliday, I’d be whistling a different tune.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And I wanted to hear you whistle Dixie
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Feb 2, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look away ...
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm with you on Sheets and even Cabrera. But if it's Dunn or team bank account
I’d choose Dunn. Bank accounts don’t yield much.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I said TEAM bank account, not Wolff bank account
The point I’m getting at is that there might be a better place to spend it later. Certainly the team won’t be better off if it’s just pocketed.
Honestly, I almost think the A’s would be better off paying Dunn NOT to play next season and then signing him in 2009 after Holliday leaves…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn, wheat farmer
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Lol
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I will agree to not play for the A's this year
for $5 million.
by RayJEdd on Feb 3, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Given that you're a Type Z free agent,
what does it cost the A’s if they decline?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
can I have $10M?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a hard time believing Buck is above average defensively.
by mikev on Feb 2, 2009 8:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
He doesn’t look terrible out there. He’s posted crazy good UZR ratings. CHONE projects him as above average. What’s not to like?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Feb 2, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's always looked fairly bad to me.
Not a great arm, never seemed to take great routes, etc.
Almost like Byrnes but without the ESPN catches.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 2, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By the eye test I would have said he was average
Average speed, average to below arm, average routes. He was not Byrnes out there nor was he Kotsay. Then again, I’m not a scout so take it with a grain of salt.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Feb 2, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's probably a case of the bad plays being in memory and not the routine and/or good ones
But I just remember a LOT of misplayed line drives and missed catches on balls he had to go back on his rookie year.
Not easy catches, mind, but catches that should be made by a professional.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 2, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In the outfield, range makes up for stone hands
and Buck’s range is far in excess of your typical corner outfielder, largely because (notwithstanding vignette’s opinion) his speed is well above average. It’s masked by the fact that he has poor basestealing instincts, but you can see it in his 2B/3B totals.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know he's fast, and that does make up for a lot of his shitty reads
hence the Byrnes reference up above.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 7:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Among other things, yes
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Then using UZR as a complement to CHONE is a mistake. I’d say drawing definitive conclusions from UZR is a mistake but I realize that’s contentious.
by Lovejoy on Feb 3, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't unless it changed:
These are based on 5 years of data from 2004-2008, weighted 1, .8, .6, .4, .2. The numbers are a combination of Stats ZR, Revised Zone rating, and Totalzone (which is not available for 2008). Instead of regressing these to a league average, the regression is to a run value derived from the Fan’s scouting report. The more a player has played, the more his rating is based on his stats. The less he has played, the more it is based on his scouting report.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Feb 3, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 12:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how Dunn is much cheaper than Sheets
And Sheets would be a big upgrade. Even making only 20 to 25 starts.
If we sign Dunn we might as well bring the mule back and don some striped damn socks. Freak show lineup.
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Feb 2, 2009 10:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do something ELECTRIFYING in the outfield!
Why not do something electrifying in the outfield? Beane has always had the hots for Lastings Milledge. Let’s package Buck, Barton and a prospect for Milledge and Nick Johnson. Wash would dump Johnson’s salary and injury risk and the A’s would get the huge upside of Milledge.
We could then put Milledge in CF batting leadoff, move Sweeney to RF, Cust at DH, Giambi at 1B, with Johnson as backup 1B (albeit expensive). Now, that would intensify our lineup!
by Slinky on Feb 2, 2009 11:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
and we could hire Fred A. Leuchter, Jr. to replace Larry Davis!
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe Nicola Tesla
I hear he’s pretty electrifying.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Raiden
from Mortal Kombat.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Feb 2, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Blanka
from Street Fighter 2
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 2, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sailor Jupiter
from Sailor Moon
The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]
by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 6:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the thought
but not the trade idea. Washington want to move Nick Johnson and Lastings, so why would we give them 2 good prospects + a prospect. I think we if offered them Barton, murton and a low level. Keep buck
by ryanmoser on Feb 2, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Kasumi
from DOA
…
Look you get your “charge” from where you want, and I’ll get mine from where I want.
by Nate on Feb 2, 2009 2:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
OK I will, but I have nothing to say!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 2, 2009 7:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Buster Olney is reportings that the Dodgers are looking at Dunn now
as well as Orlando Hudson, since Manny declined a 25M 1 year MAJOR LEAGUE CONTRACT NOT MINOR LEAGUE BUT FOR THE MLB FRANCHISE ITSELF (hi Paul)
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 12:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
a $25M minor league contract would be awesome
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You should write “THE MaLB FRANCHISE ITSELF” to avoid confusion.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on Feb 3, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess maturity was too much to hope for.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Feb 3, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you got miturity instead
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
About as hopeless as a sense of humor.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
by mikev on Feb 3, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No consensus?!?!
I think Sweeney proved himself last year. I think there is strong consensus that he is our CF.
On the other hand Buck struggled, was injured, spent most of his time AAA, and s now telling us being part of the A’s ad campaign put pressure on him that might have affected his play….
If you must have Dunn or Abreu I think you’d be displacing Buck…
But for the record I am not in favor of acquiring either of them.
by WhiteElephant on Feb 3, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think there's consensus at all that Sweeney is better than Buck
Only that Sweeney, in 2008, was a lot better than Buck was in 2008. For their respective minor league careers, Buck was better. For their respective major league careers overall, Buck has been better, and many (but not all) believe that going forward, Buck will be better.
The one edge Sweeney has is that he is the better defensive CFer of the two – but even there, not all are sold on Sweeney’s CF skills and not all are that down on Buck’s potential CF skills, so it’s an open question how wide the gap is there.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely see Buck's potential upside as being higher than Sweeney's...
…now all Buck has to do is show he can do it consistently and reasonably injury-free. Sweeney has shown that he can do that much, and while probably not as good as Buck probably will be, it’s not like he’s the offensive black hole otherwise known as Bobby Crosby, either.
Hence, it should be Sweeney’s job until Buck (or somebody else) better comes along and takes it from him.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
by UncleLeo on Feb 4, 2009 7:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
abreu/dunn???
sorry,i think you may have bumped your head. sweeney is going to be a stud. but he won’t develop on the bench while a hack plays in front of him. you can tell by his swing that he is going to be in the 25 hr club in a couple of years. both dunn and abreu can put up numbers, but the price is too steep. we have to commit to some young talent.
by bernardkoen1 on Feb 3, 2009 8:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
you can tell by his swing that he is going to be in the 25 hr club in a couple of years.
You mean for his career?
by Nate on Feb 3, 2009 8:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
For the season, Nate, c'mon -
You can just tell.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 3, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s quite ironic considering his swing is the primary reason people don’t think he’ll hit 25hr…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Feb 3, 2009 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i am suffering from speculation fatigue...
reading, joining, and posting on this site has been a positive for me because i’m getting a hell of a lot more from it than from the official A’s site as far as new content daily, but i think it is slowly driving me insane… 10 days until p&c, i can deal with that, but do i really have to wait 2 whole months before the first round of our roster debates are settled?
not directed at anybody in particular, just had to vent the frustrations of being a bases ball fan in the winter
by jlanning17 on Feb 4, 2009 7:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
i hear ya
but for baseball addicts, there’s not much else going on at this time. this is what holds people like me over for the remaining hell that is the offseason
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Feb 4, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Sweeney will have a career as an average CF
average bat plus average defense. He’s also average healthy. In CF.
Buck on the other hand, seems like a guy with a history of being hurt. some guys just get hurt a lot. I think it makes sense for the A’s to trade Buck for a prospect that fits one of their needs, like SS or 2b. and commit to Sweeney.
I understand he has up[side, I agree he is better (so far) with the stick.
you have to give quality to get quality prospects.
The receiving team gambles on Buck’s health.
The A’s gamble that the prospect continues developing.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
by connie mack on Feb 4, 2009 8:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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