Staturday: Baserunning & CF Defense

Jack Cust sucks at everything. Therefore this analysis is wrong.

You fail Mr. James.

I hope he starts. I’d like to see him in the outfield with Holliday and Sweeney, with Cust at designated hitter. I know that would mean Giambi having to play first base, but I’d take that over Cust playing the outfield, especially considering I’d rather see Buck in the lineup than Barton right now.

I’ve wondered whether the best thing to do is just to start Rajai Davis in CF and shade him a little towards right. And I really hope that Buck gets to play. Does Barton have options left?

That 7th guy will finish the month with 3 innings or so, and the spot is effectively wasted.

Seems a lot more beneficial to use the spot on a 5th outfielder, especially when you’ve got a CF who can’t hit lefties and two really slow guys who could use a pinch runner.

is probably on the order of = or < 1 Win. I personally would like to have Davis, but there is nothing wrong with Denorfia either.

I would rather see Buck playing every day in Sacramento than riding the pine in Oakland. I like Davis for defensive replacement in CF – he is clearly better there than Sweeney, pinch running, and spot starting.

Since Denorfia’s playing time in the Big Leagues has been so limited, I’m not sure he’d be better offensively than Davis, although I understand the reasoning based on his minor league performance before he got hurt (before he was traded to the A’s).

  grover and Nico both bring up valid points and I see both sides.If they carry 5, then you have both Davis and Denorfia which I think would be a better choice early on rather than going with 7 bullpen arms. Buck definitely gets my support as a starter with Holliday and Sweeney filling out the outfield. I really feel like Daric Barton is going to have to knock some socks off for folks this spring if he even wants to sniff the opening day roster.

The A’s could have Hannahan as the backup 1B and back up 3B and one of either Pennington or Pettit as the utility backup guy. Barton only has one true position as a 1B and I just think he still has a little bit of development to undergo before becoming a full time starter, if ever. Buck on the other hand I feel just had a rough go of it starting off last season and some bad luck as well. What I saw from him in 2007 and especially Sept. 2008 give me more confidence in what he can bring to the table on a full time basis. I was especially delighted with his surge of power in his Sept. call up last year.

They measured how often a baserunner “moves up on a wild pitch or a passed ball or defensive indifference, sac flies and balks.”

Balks? Did anyone in MLB fail to advance on a balk last season?

whereas (to my knowledge) Denorfia and Hannahan are not, and neither are Buck/Barton.

I think that Cust will bat second and will be pinch-run for/lifted defensively after his 4th or 5th at bat basically every game. Having Rajai and Pennington (and perhaps even Denorfia) allows the team to do that with Cust and Giambi all the time.

Like you say g, the question is whether the A’s carry 4 OFs or 5. I think they’ll carry 5 (counting Cust), because Giambi’s the backup first baseman, and Pennington can be the backup 3b/ss/2b. In an emergency situation with two MIF injuries in the same game, Rajai plays 2b, which he’s done throughout the minors.

I think they might have to carry 12 pitchers, even at the beginning of the season, because they open the year with 10 games in 10 days. And the starters are not exactly guaranteed to get to the 7th inning.

I’d rather err on the side of having one extra pitcher twiddling his thumbs than having Geren overuse relievers early in the year and hurt them. I felt he overused Casilla and Brown last year when they appeared about 40 times in the first 80 games.

Of course, it only takes one position-player injury in ST to render some of these decisions moot.

is based on the health of Chavez and Ellis.

I feel good about either of them if Ellis and Chavez are both healthy. I feel ill to the bone if they are not…..and we have to see extended time for aforementioned replacement/backups.

is why I wish the A’s would really try hard to sign Ty Wigginton. He could take Hannahan’s roster spot, would be a legit bat in the lineup for all the days off that Chavez and Giambi would need (and Giambi will probably need more days off if he is playing the field). He can also play some corner OF – giving us an extra OFer – and an emergency 2Bmen if Ellis needs backup. I am sure the A’s could get him 300-400 ABs easy — and with their injury history he probably ends up with a close to full time role.

I realize his defense at pretty much all his positions is below average, but having a legit right handed bat (that kills lefties) to put between all the left handed bats in the A’s lineup will give the lineup some much needed protection against LOOGYs in the later innings.

when Chris leads the Italian team to a thoroughly improbable victory in the World Baseball Classic.

I would argue that if the starting outfield alignment was Holliday-Sweeney-Buck (with Giambi @ 1B, Cust DHing and Barton in AAA) then I’d argue for Denorfia as the extra outfielder, as the overall outfield defense and offense would be solid most days with a strict Denorfia/Sweeney center field platoon.

But, if for some reason Buck gets sent back down to AAA, Barton makes the team and the starting outfield is Holliday-Sweeney-Cust with Giambi at DH, then I’d vote for Rajai being the guy, as he can obviously make up for Cust’s limitations in right late in games and with him you could squeeze a little more marginal value out of his baserunning prowess.

display of football, in which guys really ran and passed the football in a ‘footbally’ way that only football teams can do in football. Did I use the word ‘football’ enough?"

Good grief.

I can see both Buck and Barton being on the Opening Day roster, even though many may not agree with it. Injuries and the need to give guys ample rest will mean that there will be plenty of playing time to go around for both of them. The group of Cust, Giambi, Buck and Barton will not be 100% healthy this year. There’s simply no way that’s going to happen. So, assuming Buck and Barton both make the club here’s my version of the bench:

Bowen
Pennington
Baisley
Davis

Davis beats out Denorfia IMO since all we really need out of that position is a defensive replacement/pinch runner. Buck fulfills all duties as the “4th” OFer that were needed out of Denorfia. I pick Baisley over Hannahan because I don’t like Jack as a player. He plays good defense, but I believe Chavy’s to be better and if Chavy goes down I’m going to need a restraining order against myself so I won’t be paying attention to the team anymore anyway.

Buck and Barton are both similarly adept fielders, likewise Giambi and Cust are similarly unadept. Bucks bat > Barton’s thus far. Give me Buck.

Denorfia has always produced when healthy. Platooning him with Sweeney is smart not only because it will increase output, but also what if Sweeney tanks? We will want to make sure Denorfia gets some seasoning or else we will be seeing A LOT of Rajai possibly.

If you go with Denorfia, definitely give the nod to pennington over Petit as our main utility infielder, that way he can also be our pinch runner at times, where he is nearly as good as Rajai. Besides that, it occurs to me it might be more beneficial to have an infielder as a pinch-runner because it would be more likely he could stay in the game on defense (assumes pinch running for DH/infielders more likely than OFers).

I’d say that the OPS for Davis and Denorfia are so close that Davis really should have the upper hand because of his defense and baserunning…though neither has enough ABs to fully convince me this is how they’ll hit lefties (I’ll try to dig up minor league splits). FWIW, we’ve added a slow on-base machine in Giambi, so Davis’ pinch running should be even more valuable this year.

vs Lefty AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Denorfia 81 .284 .348 .370 .719
R. Davis 181 .265 .325 .381 .706

By the way, Jack Cust was our best hitter last year.