Coming of Age: The Tommy Everidge - Adrian Cardenas Debate
by JonL on Dec 9, 2009 6:36 PM PST
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PrintSince I've joined AN, there's been one constant theme I've encountered: "Statistics".
I've seen all sort of stats thrown out there, from old school (BA) to new school (ISO) to preschool ("walks well" aka BB/9) to High School (Pythagorean aka Expected Win-Loss Record).
But there's one stat I haven't seen discussed much, Age.
It seems that like runway models, minor league baseball players can be 5 kinds of great until the moment they hit 25 (or so), and then it's all downhill from there.
Why is this?
I mean, isn't history littered with players who went Gangbusters initially, but haven't lived up to any of the hype (Javier Herrera, Bobby Crosby)?
And aren't there notably examples of late-bloomers who, outside of they mommas, didn't impress many (Chris Coste, Brad Zeilger)?
Looking at Sacramento, I see two players who headline my debate: Tommy Everidge and Adrian Cardenas.
It seems that many are fairly high on Cardenas, who at age 21, put up a mediocre .251/.317/.372 BA/OBP/SLG. True, Cardenas MAY be a good major leaguer, but he hasn't shown that he can even handle AAA pitching yet (based on stats...I don't claim to be an expert on watching scouting videos).
At the same time, Everidge, at 26, blew up the building with a .368/.428/.632.
So why is there such little talk about Everidge? The only thing I can think of is his age. But at 26 yo and with this performance, isn't he more of a "Sure Thing"? I mean, he's getting near his physical peak and his destroyed AAA pitching.
So for those in the know (and those who simply have an opinion), let me know.
Thanks for reading my first post. Cheers.
Tommy Everidge's fan club, formerly the Hiram Bocachica fan club.
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Not answering your exact question, but on the topic...
I’m intrigued by the group of players that seem to blossom in their late 20s after stalling (or at least not starring) during their “prospect —> majors” years — how do we predict who these outliers might be?
I’m thinking of guys like Nelson Cruz and Carlos Peña and Ryan Ludwick, who got to the age where it was likely they would never have the great seasons they went on to have. Jamie Moyer was like that. How could we have seen it coming?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 9, 2009 6:47 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Difference is Cruz, Pena and Ludwick were always considered to have good tools by scouts - it just either took them a while to get the most out of them or get an extended opportunity.
Everidge has never been considered a prospect and apart from a few months in AAA last season has never even suggested he will be able to hit major league pitching.
Right, but my question doesn't involve Everidge
Lots of toolsy players liked by scouts don’t ever rebound after stalling initially; why did these guys, while the others didn’t?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And if we had the answer, we could make lots of money selling it to MLB teams
I’m pretty sure they’d like to know which prospects are going to end up being good.
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Age relative to league is a big part.
Everidge is 26, but he’s playing against guys younger than him.
Cardenas is right around the right age for AAA
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
So, when I'm 40 I might be able to play low A ball?
This is the best news I’ve had all year
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Not as good as Little League at 80 for me!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 9, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
"I wish I could play little league now, Id kick some ass..
…go ahead throw that curveball, it aint gunna curve."
rest in peace mitch hedburg.
by PL78 on Dec 9, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Cardenas is insanely young for AAA
Guy’s 21. He would only have just been drafted this year if he had gone to a four-year college.
Putting up the decent line that he did— especially given that it was vastly improved in his second stint— was a significant accomplishment.
BTW, if anyone wants a legitimate example of what the phrase “holding his own” in a league means, this is it. Superficial numbers down, but his peripherals didn’t melt away. Almost all of the decline from AA to AAA was due to a drop in BABIP.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
I dunno why I thought he was 23.
Probably the rum talking.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
BUT WHY IS THE RUM GONE
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Well, I have plenty of Feckin Irish Whiskey!
if you wanna come over.. ;)’
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
are you trying to proposition me sir
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
shhhh!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
At 21
He’s probably even younger than most players at AAA. Going back to the post the body (muscles) isn’t totally developed before ~25. Particularly in the parts of the body advantageous for home runs.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Dec 10, 2009 12:23 AM PST up reply actions
um.....TWSS?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
She may be thinking about those parts,
but there’s nothing there that she actually says.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Everidge is quite Average...
I wouldn’t be surprised if they DFAd him if they needed a roster spot
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 7:19 PM PST reply actions
Average would be a significant improvement. Everidge is replacement level fodder.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Dec 9, 2009 9:11 PM PST up reply actions
I had a replacement level father. It wasn't fun.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Surely not Bobby Crosby.
At least Nico’s replacement father could hit.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Ah yes, I assume you are referring to the old Everidge Average allegory,
where Thomas Everyman Everidge embarks upon a pilgramage to the Field of Free Agency accompanied by his friends Error and Wide-ass. Along the way he must traverse the Dugout of Despondency where he is confronted by Ignorance the manager. Escaping, he is further slowed on his life path by the Valley of Replacement, and and the Slough of Minor League Free Agency. Finally, he meets a Daric Barton by the name of Average, who locks Everidge in the Stadium of 10,000 Capacity for eternity. But it turns out Average is actually a decent guy, which is the moral of the story or something.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
by Aufheben on Dec 10, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I like your name
and this post.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Thanks
I like your name because it reminds me of an argument I imagined:
“bob WHAT?!”
“bob NOTHING!”
“…… bob nothing… CROSBY… Burn.”
In this situation, to say “bob nothing Crosby” is, linguistically speaking, similar to saying “Your Mama!” and it represents a turning of the tables debate-wise. Of course, I’m sure the story behind your handle is totally different, but this is just what it made me think of.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
I think it goes beyond age
The reason I have a much higher opinion of Cardenas than Everidge comes from looking at their entire history rather than how they did in partial seasons at AAA last year. It’s not just that Everidge was 26 when he put up good numbers last year at Sacramento, it’s that this short burst of productivity follows a career that can generally be described as mediocre. So when I say that I don’t think Everidge has much chance of having a career in the majors it’s not because he was 26 in AAA when he had a good year, it’s because until he was 26 he looked like a terrible prospect and a few months isn’t sufficient to change the perception.
I think the end of your post kinda answers your own question.
The history of baseball is littered with Bocachicas. After all, that guy put up some gaudy numbers in AAA as well for about 5 years after he was old for the level, but never came close to duplicating that success at the big league level. There are many more examples of these guys than the ones you point to (plus I’m not really sure a mere 1/2 a season of effective baseball by Coste really does much to inspire confidence in the late-blooming hypothesis).
"Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it."
-Thomas Jefferson
Denorfia wasn't that old when he came up (25)
Actually, he’s still not that old. Next year is only his age 29 season.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Cardenas is insanely underrated
Given his age relative to league, he is a very good player. The only reasons he isn’t higher on everyone’s prospect list is that he dosen’t have much power and does not have a defined defensive position.
Everage is a 4A player. He has generally been old for whatever league he is in. For players like him, if they don’t make a most of their initial cup of coffee, they will bounce around from organization to organization (Cruz, Ludwick, Stairs, Geronima Berrora)
Even the power concerns are overblown IMO
The guy set the Florida high school record for home runs. It’s not like he’s some kind of slap hitter— he’s just been promoted so fast that he’s outrun his own power ability.
He had 49 extra-base hits this season. Yeah, most of them are doubles, but in a young guy, doubles often presage decent later power.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
And even if they don't, having a guy with good Freddy Sanchez power isn't exactly a bad thing
Not that they’re really comps as players, but 45-50 doubles and ~10 homers from a 2B/3B is hardly a bad thing if he’s putting up a decent OBP at the same time.
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions
DUDE!!!!
I just won the world series in the GUBA. First OOTP championship in like 30+ seasons I’ve had teams.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Nice
My general disdain for other humans has kept me away from online leagues. I prefer my solo world.
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
actually that would make you love the GUBA.
we pretty much hate everything, too.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I take you've read this one
One of my favorite books in what can loosely be called my baseball library.
Have a glove you could spare for a good cause? If so please let me know
Oh damnit
I’ve actually never heard of this book, but it’s strikingly similar to an idea I had for a story.
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Matt Stairs hit 38 homers in a single big league season.
Just sayin’
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
But what did his WAR look like?
(Just felt like saying that, sorry)
by Colorado Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions
That "no defensive position" knock drives me crazy.
The reason Cardenas has no defined defensive position is because there are several defensive positions he could probably play well. This is a good thing, not a bad thing. But for some reason people complain about “no defensive position” as if it’s better to have a guy who is definitely pegged for LF because he sucks anywhere else.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
It's not really much of a debate
Look, you can’t do a lot of what you’re doing in this post— it’s full of arbitrary either/or distinctions. Age is a continuum, not some kind of cliff that players fall (or are tossed) over at some point. A guy who’s in short-season ball at age 22 is a much worse prospect than one who’s in AA at age 23, for instance.
It’s very easy to cherrypick examples of young players who failed or old players who succeeded. There are a lot of baseball players and some of them will fall outside the norm.
That said, the studies that have been done are crystal clear: age matters. Players who put up bad lines at a level that they’re young for go on to become good all the time. Players who put up bad lines at a level that they’re old for almost never become good.
Picking out the youngest players at a given level of the minors is a great way to identify future star big-leaguers. The oldest… yeah, not so much.
One other thing— you ignored defense and position. That’s a major no-no anywhere but especially in prospect evaluation. Once you factor in the fact that Cardenas is probably worth 20-25 runs more than Everidge defensively, you realize that Everidge barely outperformed Cardenas this season despite being five years older in the same leagues.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
by PaulThomas on Dec 9, 2009 7:54 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I enjoy these debates.
Without them there wouldn’t be as much stuff to read on AN. Also much less opportunuity for a funny side conversation with irony (in its true meaning; a trope, not some stupid coincidence).
With that said, there are an awful lot of electrons wasted in debates like this. I mean, really, only the baseball people that run this team — and that have money on the line — are going to be making roster moves, right? If ‘we’ were really so smart, would ‘we’ have a gig with some big league club? Ahhh, yes, but there’s never a shortage of arm-chair GM spots to fill and the compensation isn’t that bad when it comes in the form of getting to believe that you’re one of the few smartest guys on the blog.
I find faulty logic in one statement you've made:
“If ‘we’ were really so smart, would ‘we’ have a gig with some big league club?”
No, not necessarily. The vast majority of people in baseball are former professional players (though I think only 2 current GMs played in the majors). You have the occasional Theo Epstein (and more and more of those types are beginning to be hired), but by and large, the baseball world still thinks you need to have played the game at the highest level to understand the game at the highest level and I think that’s absolutely untrue.
The teams that do well are the ones that realize that’s untrue and act accordingly.
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Not even that you need to have played the game
but that it’s a gigantic ass ol boys club.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Sure
And I’m not saying any average fan could do even the worst GM’s job. Of course not. But I do think there are plenty of fans, and a number who post on this board, who could absolutely do the job of a GM. Sure, they might need a year or two working as an assistant to learn some of the more technical aspects of the job, but does anybody really think Bill Bavasi is a better baseball mind than PT, Taj, or Cindi?
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 11:20 PM PST up reply actions
of course not
did I mention that I just won the world series in a fake online league :D
I mean, honestly I could probably name a handful of people on this site who could hack it working for a front office. Hell, that’s my dream job.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
GM mikev's (partial) list of special event days at the ballpark...
Big Ass Grill Day
“Show us your piercing” day
TMI Day (free tix for sharing!)
No Yankee Fans day (note: might be an everyday occurrence)
The A’s really need to start thinking outside the box if they want to improve attendance.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I don't see anything wrong with any of those promotions.
Somebody get David Forst on the horn.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Me either, mikev
You could hire 67M, too, but don’t let his ideas get too out of hand. StomperStalker Day might not go over too well.
Somebody get David Forst on the horn.
That just means “call him on the telephone,” right?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Not saying that it isn't an "old boys club",
which it surely is, but in conversations like these we tend to imagine that the only thing the GM does is decide what trades to make. He also has to do things like assemble the coaching staff, negotiate with agents, etc. Most of all, he’s the top executive for baseball operations whom all the other departments report to: player development, medical staff, clubhouse, scouting, minor league operations, etc.
As with any top management position, it does require real business management skills. Just because many of us here have a better idea who the team should trade for doesn’t mean we’d be better at actually running the club.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
That would make for a pretty boring fantasy baseball league, though
Let’s see, I’m going to draft Lucy to do my payroll, then I need to figure out who’s going to run concessions…
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Funny you say that
because hiring/firing personnel is actually a part of OOTP, along with crap like setting ticket prices.
However, like most any business, I would HIGHLY doubt that Billy Beane has a large part in day to day operations. There’s a reason he employs guys like Forst, Zaidi, etc.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Of course he's not directly involved.
That’s what delegation is all about. But all those guys still report to him. It’s pretty much the definition of a manager in the business world that he doesn’t do any of the work directly but he does have to be the boss of everyone else who does.
I suspect a lot of us here wouldn’t be very good as bosses. I know I wouldn’t.
By the way, success in the business world correlates well to success in athletics, so they’re not completely out of their minds when they keep hiring former jocks. Athletic success in high school is a better predictor of success in the business world than good grades.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Well yeah, of course it does.
Athletic success in high school is a better predictor of success in the business world than good grades.
Like every single athlete who ends up in college majors in business management :P
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Isn’t that largely because hiring at most jobs in “the business world” has nothing to do with merit and everything to do with being in tight with the right people?
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
In business, being tight with the right people
is merit.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
What is this, Circular Logic Day?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
I understood it.
If the right people take you into their circle (association) it means that you’ve impressed them. And if the company is doing well, it means the right people value the right things in the business world.
But, to some people, the right people in the business world are just the heartless bourgeoisie. And they should be loathed for for their status, positions, attitude, and simply because they’re the ‘haves’ in the perpetual class struggle.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 11, 2009 2:22 AM PST up reply actions
You know,
I think you might come off as less of a caricature if you didn’t red-bait people with every other post you make.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
You know, I thout I was coming off as the person MAKING the caricature.
But I guess I’m too stupid to realize that I am the caricature and all I can do is lessen that sentiment. Screw it, then, I might as well cast the red-bait and see what’s biting.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 11, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions
I feel like you really didn't read what I wrote.
I don’t believe any of us could step in and immediately be a GM. It’s those things you mentioned that I believe would take a couple years to learn (and some people may never get all that, but that just means they’re better suited for some sort of assistant job than the big job). I stand by my statement. There are people who post here who could, with some training, be quality general managers in baseball.
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
I'll concede to a point well made...
…so let’s let those pipe-dream auditions continue. Someone is bound to be noticed by an important lurker.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 10, 2009 2:58 AM PST up reply actions
People who are actually good at this, and I'm not talking about myself here (more like guys like Salb and Graham),
tend to get hired by baseball franchises…
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Wait, Salb and Graham work for clubs?
Cool for them!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Wasn't one of the younger kids who used to post here
get hired by the A’s before last season started? I remember him being at the Opening Day AN tailgate last year and he sais he couldn’t stay because he had to get to work….someone asked him if that meant he was possibly hired by the A’s and he said, “That’s the idea”, or something of that nature.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
I do not recall.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
iamawesomer?
I think he got a job with the A’s IIRC.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
i guess he really was awesomer.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Aw shucks.
We’re still talking about Tommy Everidge?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I'lll just leave this here
.326/.392/.446 – wOBA .381
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
So where does a guy like Jack Cust fit into this discussion?
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Check out Cust's career lines
He first hit AAA as a 22 year old and posted a .940 OPS. Up to that point, his season OPS numbers had been even better—as he was climbing the minor league ladder at the right age or slightly younger than league average.
by nobodyinparticular on Dec 9, 2009 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
He was a guy who didn't get a real shot
Mainly for two reasons: Bad defense (and he happened to mostly be on NL clubs) and teams didn’t like his strikeouts (this is why Baltimore failed him; they tried so hard to change him that they could have ruined him completely).
In fact, Cust spending time with so many teams and getting cups of coffee with 4 teams before joining the A’s shows that teams always liked the things he did well. To me that says baseball people tried to figure out how to live with his warts.
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
Sadly
Everidge is more likely to be another Graham Koonce than the next late bloomer. He was a nice story this season and he went to my school so I have a bit of a soft spot for him but it’s good to be realistic and be pretty sure that he won’t amount to much in the majors. Best case scenario is that he becomes a nice power option off the bench.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Exactly! I think we all LIKE Everidge
Seems like a fine individual, isn’t terrible at baseball, doesn’t do anything particularly dumb or offensive on the field. He’s a guy we all, I think, want to root for. But that doesn’t mean we should hope he’s on the team when other players are better.
by thejd44 on Dec 9, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
Paul Lo duca comes to mind
When you talk about late bloomers. The guy finally made it to the bigs when he was 29. Although he quickly faded from the spotlight after appearing in the 2006 All-Star game, he is a great example of somebody that marinated in the minors for a while.
Wade Hines
As a PED user, can we use him as an example?
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Tar and feathers?
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
Nah, I don't hate the PED users (I hate some of them, but not specifically for the PEDs)
I just don’t think we should use them when trying to project player types and all that.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2009 12:37 AM PST up reply actions
Everidge is Average
Cardenas is the future 2B or 3B in waiting…
Anyone think Jemile Weeks can be the next Chone Figgins???
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