MLB Teams' Arbitration Strategy
by notsellingjeans on Dec 9, 2009 4:50 PM PST
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PrintThis Saturday is the deadline for teams to offer contracts to their
arbitration-eligible, pre-free agent players - players like Jack Cust,
Santiago Casilla, and Michael Wuertz, with somewhere between (almost)
three to six years of accrued major league service time.
I'd like to discuss the strategy that teams are employing this
offseason with these arbitration-eligible players and get your
feedback after the jump.
(Note: This is not a researched post. I'm giving myself 10 minutes
max (that's what happens when you have a newborn son!). Don't expect
links, great research, or analysis. I'm looking for it to be a place
to discuss and get feedback).
Most ANers have read that the A's are considering non-tendering Jack
Cust before this Saturday's deadline, which would make him a free
agent available to all teams.
I've also read, surprisingly, that the Padres are considering doing
the same with Kevin Correia, who was very effective for them as an SP
last year.
We can debate precisely how valuable these players are until we are
blue in the face. That's not the goal of my post. But I think we
can all agree that Cust and Correia specifically, and a few others
like them who are apparently non-tender candidates, have some
legitimate, tangible, non-zero value. Cust and Correia are undeniably
worth more than the league minimum. They are more valuable than some
other major league players.
I believe that a rebuilding team like the A's or Padres should a.)
tender Cust, Correia, or players in their similar situation to a
contract; b.) evaluate other teams' interest in those players, and c.)
swallow a good chunk of the players' salary in the trade, in return
for prospects or young major leaguers who under control for a longer
period of time - the window in which the rebuilding team projects to
be competitive again.
Example: The A's pay Cust's 2010 salary and ship him to the Royals
for Callaspo (and maybe the A's take on part of one of their bad
contracts, too). Or, the Padres trade Correia and cover his entire
2010 salary to an NL team desperate for a back-of-the-rotation starter
for prespects.
But clearly these things are not happening, because teams are
considering non-tendering these guys this weekend. I can't stand the
thought of the A's essentially giving away Cust to the free market -
losing him for nothing, not even a draft pick. But the A's, Padres,
and other teams are ok with it. What am I missing? Is it against the
CBA to cover part of the salary of a player in a trade if his salary
for the following year has yet to be determined? (In other words, is
it against league rules for the A's to send Jack Cust and $3M in cash
to the Royals, since we don't yet know what Jack Cust will earn in
'10?)
I'd like your feedback. Apparently I'm not seeing every angle here.
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I was just thinking about this
I was reading that Chien-Ming Wang is likely to be non-tendered as well, and wondering why you would get rid of a player unless he was certain to collapse. It seems like these players would have some trade value, and some value on the field, so why give them away for free? The only things I can come up with, without actually information from the teams, is that it would be about:
a) cost certainty for the owner;
b) roster space; or
c) specific knowledge
To me, c) seems the most likely, in that you would do it if your internal specific knowledge of the player lead you to believe that he was likely to either physically collapse, mentally collapse, or turn into a “clubhouse cancer”.
I am very interested to see what other people think.
Or is it that these teams believe
they can sign their players cheaper as non-tendered FAs instead of paying them arbitration dollars? Seems better to settle, which is what the A’s usually do when they want to keep a player, but maybe the teams can’t agree on a figure with Cust/Correia/Wang and think they can get them for less as a FA. Risky, but possible.
Likelier they aren’t looking to keep the player, but in the A’s case I don’t get why when Cust is going to be cheaper than, say, Matsui and better than the in-house alternatives.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i thought the idea was that
the arbitration figure likely to be decided on is just worth the player, so that he wouldn’t have much trade value.
also, if a team decides to offer someone arbitration with the intent on trading him, they run the risk of an injury or meltdown and the team wouldn’t be able to get anything to get for him. so they avoid the matter all together and don’t tender them.
finally, the team does it for pr, showing that they dont want a certain player or, for the a’s, its a conspiracy to show that they don’t have any money to spend so they need to move to SJ so they can win(since i live in sj, i wouldnt mind this situation, but it probably pisses off those who would much rather see our a’s stay in oakland)
I too am not seeing the logic here.
There must be something I don’t know. So far, the best explanations I can come up with are:
(1) In fact, the teams really aren’t considering non-tendering these guys at all. It’s just being reported and repeated by over-enthusiastic journalists, and the GMs don’t bother to deny the rumors. Or
(2) Guys like Cust and Correia actually aren’t as valuable as we think they are. There’s something undesirable about them that the GMs know and we don’t.
Neither of those explanations is really satisfactory, but I don’t know of any better ways to explain the reports.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Maybe Jack Cust spent the last two years teasing Dana Eveland for having a girl's name and hipster glasses?
And if he went, Eveland would suddenly go awesome?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
I suspect it has a lot to do with the value of prospects going up
If GMs start valuing prospects more, fringe guys who are good, but not special become harder to trade since the quality of the likely return just isn’t there. You wouldn’t trade a guy like Cust for a Tommy Everridge or two, but odds are, that’s what these guys are likely worth from other GMs, especially for a player type who could be picked up (with a different name) as a cheap FA. So there’s little incentive for other teams to offer more than bottom dollar in trade. At which point the teams then need to decide, does the player fit into our players, then keep them, otherwise you have no choice but to non-tender.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
I think you hit the nail on the head
Also this year has some pretty cheap FA. They make the trade value also go down because arbitration will give Jack Cust the same deal as someone like Figgins gets on the market (on a per year basis) Which we all know which one is more valuable!
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Dec 10, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
It might well be #1
I remember talk about a huge wave of non-tenders last offseason and then the best player who was non-tendered was Ty Wigginton, who kind of sucks.
I think it’s heavily influenced by bullshit.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
The A's will have to...
non-tender one of their arby eligible players if they want to select someone in tomorrow’s Rule V draft. A’s roster currently stands at 40.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 6:38 PM PST reply actions
I guess they have the option of DFAing a non-arby player as well....
someone like Everidge, Petit or Eveland
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
Or...Casilla!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Deport Casilla Now!
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 9, 2009 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Can't they also waive/DFA/release someone if they prefer?
Like, I dunno…Casilla!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'll offer someone you haven't thought of...
Jairo Garcia
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Oh good lord no -- he's great.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
ADAMMM PIATTT!!!!!11111111
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 9, 2009 7:36 PM PST up reply actions
Deport Garcia Now!
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 9, 2009 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
Deadline's already passed to clear space
The A’s are not going to be picking in the major league phase this season.
Honestly, I’m not really upset about that… no one leaps out as an obvious choice. It’s the usual gaggle of decent relief prospects (don’t need ‘em), soft-tossing swingmen (don’t need ‘em), and 4th outfielders (don’t need ’em). Why bother?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Which makes it curious that the Yankees acquired the #1 pick in teh Rule 5 for trading Brian Bruney.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I don't thnk that's completely accurate...
I think they can make room and still draft a player. I don’t recall hearing about a roster deadline. What if the A’s made a trade tonight and it cleared two spots. Are you telling me they wouldn’t be able to take someone tomorrow?
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions
furthermore, I would be ...
completely shocked if the A’s didn’t make a selection. The Rule V is a perfect vehicle for rebuilding teams – it’s a low risk move to select someone with potential for $50,000.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Dec 9, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
Frost stays behind
A’s web site says Frost stayed behind for the rule 5 draft so it does sound like they may pick someone.
Sounds like he has miles to go before he sleeps.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 9, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh they'll pick players all right
but it’ll be in the minor league phase, not the major league phase.
I expect they’ll make several selections in order to fill the holes in the A+ and AA rosters, which are a little thin with all the promotions of prospects toward the majors.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Not sure how accurate it is but this article seems to suggest the A's could still make a pick
Their name could come up in Thursday morning’s Rule 5 Draft, even though their representatives will go into it with a full 40-man roster and players selected in the process must immediately be placed on that list.
“But we’re always on the lookout — it’s just another opportunity, and we can always create [roster] space,” Beane said.
Who is this Frost character?
And why does he keep nipping at my nose?
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Are you dressed like an Eskimo?
That could explain it.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I think so
unless I’m misunderstanding the transaction calendar at Cot’s. The deadline to clear space was yesterday.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Deadline’s already passed to clear space
The A’s are not going to be picking in the major league phase this season.
It mustn’t have because this just happened………………..
#Royals to release 1B/DH Mike Jacobs and LHP John Bale prior to Rule 5 Draft. Leaves club with 38 players on 40-man roster.
http://twitter.com/Royals_Report
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Well we must have cleared some space because we took RHP Bobby Cassevah from the Angels
Not sure who we dropped but the pick looks a bit meh to me.
Cust's problem
The A’s would have Cust stay if he takes 3 million for next year but if he thinks it is more like 4.5 million then he is toast. Cust is in a unique situation since being a DH and having 10 or more DHs out in limbo with only AL jobs available its going to be a tough market to get paid well.
Corriea on the other hand is still a good pitcher but SD is cheap. Look at Blanton who may be non tendered. Casilla should be released because I don’t see a fit for him on the team.
The way I'd like to see it play out:
-A’s cut Casilla loose
-A’s sign Cust for 3-3.5 million
A’s sign Matsui for 2 years at 16 million grtd
A’s sign Bedard for 1 year at 5 million+incentives if healthy to rebuild FA value
or
A’s sign Correia for 1 year at 2.5 million if Bedard is not available.
Then trade Cust to a team in need of power at DH/RF/LF willing to send the A’s any prospect with a pulse at SS, even if prospect is 3 years away.
Okay…….time to take my cold medicine again!
{cough, hack, yack!…}
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
I don't really get the Matsui rumors
He’s more expensive than Cust, and even if he were to be an upgrade, it’s not like a slight upgrade at DH will be that useful in 2010. What’s the point? Why not just hang onto Cust and have more money to use on 2011, extending Suzuki/Sweeney/Anderson et al, foreign markets, and so forth?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Because Godzilla is a sexy name!!!!!!!!!!! :)
I don’t think Matsui is a slight upgrade, I think he would be a considerable upgrade, especially if he never has to sport the leather.
Would it make you feel better if the A’s signed to a one year deal with an option to see if he performs up to par with the money? I want the A’s to lock up Suzuki, Anderson, and Co. etc….but I don’t really know that this year will affect their signing extensions beyond their arby years.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Matsui out hit Cust in 2009
However Cust out hit him in 2008 and in 2007. Both a equally terrible in the field. Cust is more durable. Cust is cheaper. There is no point signing Matsui when we are rebuilding and there is a decent chance that Cust will be more valuable in 2010
Yeah, as I've mentioned in another thread,
I don’t really see the point in replacing Cust with Matsui. Matsui is gonna be a high decline/injury risk and he’s going to cost at least twice as much as Cust. Plus, both CHONE and James predicts Cust to outperform Matsui next year.
The only way it makes sense is if Beane could get something of value for Cust. But by “any prospect with a pulse at SS”, I suppose you mean like another Tyler Ladendorf? Eh, adding more Ladendorfs to the system is pretty much meaningless…
I agree that the A’s should make a run at Bedard though.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I make the "pulse" comment with a grain of salt...ie-Ladendorf
I absolutely believe that Cust could net Billy something “better than decent” in a trade. He has value and I’m sure the A’s are going to sign him to a contract. I’m really just having fun here playing a little fantasy GM.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
This, basically
Signing Matsui is a waste of time unless his contract will basically pay for itself with off-field revenue.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
If any free agent will, he will
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 9, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
And I believe he would pay off in off field revenue
Certainly with merchandise and it would definitely bring out some of the Japanese fan base in the bay area. I would love it and I enjoy just being a fan of the players sometimes…
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Why pay Matsui 16 million when we're not going to compete in 2010 is beyond me
If we were a DH away from a championship and I would say sign him, but I think 2011 or 2012 is more likely. I think the Billy is just screwin with the other GMs again to attempt to trade him. If he doesn’t trade him by saturday, he will be signed and still could be moved, but I doubt the A’s just let him go.
If we wanted Revenue...We would have signed Bonds 2 years ago
Shit – I still wouldn’t mind seeing that old terd in an A’s uniform – Boos, Roids, but it would fill the seats
Boos, Roids,....
you forgot to include a warm $8.00 Budweiser!
;q
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
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