Community Prospect List - #21
by Zonis on Dec 4, 2009 9:25 PM PST
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PrintWith the top 20 finished, the list finds itself with several players needed to fill spots on the list. Lets see how we go with the A's top 20 prospects up, and if we can get to 50 like we did last year. Henry Rodriguez goes on the list, and Matt Spencer was traded before he made it, so two new players have been added.
Don't forget to add players whom you think should make the voting list in the comments. And just for a refresher for qualification:
The qualifications to be voted onto the list are simple. The player in question must be eligible to win a Rookie of the Year Award for the 2010 season-that is, he must be a rookie to start the 2010 season. Well, not quite. To make it simpler and not have to count days on the active roster, we will be going with 130 AB or 50 Innings Pitched.
For Reference:
Athletics Nation Community Prospect List 2008
Prospects up for Vote:
Rashun Dixon, OF, Age 18
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B AzL (oak) Rk 45 .263 .328 .525 8 42 5 32 3 Van (oak) SS 57 .214 .300 .281 2 16 6 25 7 Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39 STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48
Ian Krol, SP, Age 18 - Video - Draft Scouting Report
Motion
Fastball
Curveball
Change-up
Command 50
45
50/55
45
45/50
Mickey Storey, RP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 13 0-0 0.52 17.1 5 1 23 9 0.35 STO (oak) A+ 22 1-1 2.28 23.2 19 6 35 9 1.06
Shane Peterson, OF, Age 21
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SFD (stl) AA 18 .284 .338 .405 1 7 2 10 4 MID (oak) AA 57 .276 .335 .399 4 24 6 26 14
Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09 SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B Oregon State NCAA 56 .352 .458 .509 5 45 2 55 17 Van (oak) SS 48 .258 .388 .430 4 24 3 25 12
Justin Marks, SP, Age - 21
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP Louisville NCAA 18 11-3 3.77 105.0 86 35 129 1 1.15 ArZ (oak) Rk 1 0-1 0.00 0.0 3 4 0 0 ∞
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - [2008 Rank: 3
] - Video
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - [2008 Rank: Not In System
] - Offense Video / Defense Video
3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - [2008 Rank: 6
4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 12
5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 40
6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - [2008 Rank: Not In System
7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - [2008 Rank: 10
8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 18
9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 11
10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 7
] - Video
11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 16
12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - [2008 Rank: 22
13. Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23 - 34% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 15
14. Max Stassi, C, Age 18 - 45% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: Not In System
15. Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 46
16. Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22 - 21% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 31
17. Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - 25% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 48
18. James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - 21% (of 8) / 50% (Runoff) - [2008 Rank: 9
19. Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21 - 41% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: Not Ranked
20. Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - 28% (of 8) - [2008 Rank: 13
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Reply Here for players that should be up for voting next poll
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
Justin Souza, Wilfredo Solano
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+1 on Solano
Souza is pretty meh too me, but almost all the prospects are now.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
These are all just suggestions...
PAUL SMYTH
PAUL SMYTH
PAUL SMYTH
Joel Galarraga?
Julio Ramos?
Carlos Hernandez?
And my personal favorite…CONNER CRUMBLISS!
I wanted to say Daniel Thomas, but his stats were pitiful. Then again, so were Rashun Dixon’s.
I’m assuming Jon Meloan isn’t a prospect anymore?
"She's kinda got cankles, our kids are gonna have to play soccer." ~ Mrs. "Disco" Hayes
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 5, 2009 12:22 AM PST up reply actions
Thomas had another injury-- if we're going guys with shoulder injuries who might never be effective again, I think Carignan comes first
Meloan is a prospect, yeah.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Gotcha
Missed the Daniel Thomas injury. In that case yeah, I’d put Carignan above him too.
I just want Paul Smyth on there. Now.
"She's kinda got cankles, our kids are gonna have to play soccer." ~ Mrs. "Disco" Hayes
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 5, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
A- ball reliever, no draft pedigree?
There are like 5 more guys in front of him just from this year’s draft, not to mention all the other candidates.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Forgot about Meloan.
I think he should probably be on here by now. He’s a pretty good bet to be a pretty good reliever.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Clay Mortensen
He has a decent chance to be a back of rotation starter – that is not bad value at the stage.
I second this one
Also, I evidently have a strong bias in favor of SP, as I’ve been voting for them pretty much the entire way through this series.
Leon → Capra → Hornbeck → Figueroa
I 2nd Mortensen
While he doesn’t excite the way Greg Smith used to (that pickup move was awesome) he is a possible 5th starter type for sure.
What happened to Smith, he fell of a cliff this year.
Shoulder injury of some kind
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Godfrey, Horton, Sulentic, Benacka
Godfrey is a good starting pitcher, who will be at AAA in 2010.
Horton should also be at AAA in 2010, and unlike many other A’s infielders, can somewhat hit, although the glove is suspect.
Sulentic is just too cool for school. Have you seen his marshall arts warm-up before a game?
Benacka is older, 27, but his 2009 generates a 3.31 mle FIP on minorleaguesplits.com. He should be pitching in someone’s MLB pen.
Nino Leyja
If we have Dixon, we should have Leyja on the list two. They are both young, unproven, high upside players.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Dec 5, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
As we are getting farther into "No-Mans Land" as far as recognizable prospects go
I again would like to throw that plea out from the start of this list (that was answered beautifully by DFA and Omaha) for people to give their thoughts, such as a case or scouting report, for the various prospects both on the list and still to go. I think many, especially now, would find it very informative as we get deeper into the system.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
It would also be interesting to see people's thoughts on the system as a whole thus far
From my perspective, it appears that the system has, as to be expected, thinned a lot. So many prospects were graduated from last year that people who should have fallen quite a bit actually rose, such as Fautino De Los Santos, Michael Ynoa, and even Dustin Coleman (who I am still a fan of).
I see a system that has good hitting talent at the top, then quickly drops off to a mix of high risk/high reward and low risk/low reward pitching prospects, then a further drop off outside the top 10 to 15. With Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Gio, Outman, Bailey, Webb, Italiano and Kilby no longer eligable, and several players dropping due to injuries or suckiness (Simmons, Hunter), the system could really use some fresh blood, which I think the 2009 draft did, but which we wont see the effect of till next year. Still, with all the pitching promotions, and the mass of hitting prospects at the top of the list as well as being at the upper levels of the system, the big league clubs future looks good, but the system may become extremley barren in 2011, after we see a simular migration of hitting prospects from this list to the big league club as we did with pitching last year. I fully expect that Wallace, Carter, Cardenas, Brown and Donaldson to be off this list for 2011 one way or another (promotion or trade), with a possibility of Desme and Weeks if they move fast enough.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
Time for Demel
From minorleaguesplits.com, Demel has a major league equivalent FIP of 3.61. That’s good. Decimated AA at Midland for half a season. Did well at AAA for half a season. Should get a cup of coffee in 2010. Fastball at 93+. High K’s. Lots of ground balls. Very few HR’s. Too many walks, but overall really good. I had him above Henry because of steady performance.
Me too
I have him above Henry for the same reason. He looks like he should be able to help our pen in 2010.
I voted Figueroa.
Leyja for the next nomination. What is the argument for Ryan Ortiz?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Since you asked...
Ortiz is a catcher with good all-around hitting performances and skills so far in his career. He was a terrific hitter for Oregon State in the Pac-10 (good program in a good conference), posting over .900 OPSs two consecutive seasons and walking more than he struck out. In Vancouver this year (not an easy park to hit in either) he put up a line of .258/.388/.430 while drawing 26 walks as against just 29 strikeouts. He had a pretty low BABIP but still put up a very strong hitting line. Not a ton of HRs but 17 extra-base hits in 180 plate appearances is rock solid.
There’s some video of him available here. He’s a good-looking hitter— unusually tall and lanky for a catcher. The report that video is linked to calls him a projectable hitter, which makes sense to me given his height, weight and age.
Defensively, he’s not going to wow you behind the plate, but he’s not an eyesore back there either. Overall he seems like quite a good prospect to me, very solid value in the sixth round. Reasonable upside is something like a righthanded AJ Pierzynski (minus the “asshole” part).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Its like three pitches but i really really don't like the knee drop on d
It will mess up your mobility and ability to block a ball.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Dec 5, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
So he's headed to KC probably, maybe Stockton given that Stassi's behind him and
Paramore isn’t that great?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
My guess is that he goes to KC, Stassi goes to extended spring, and then if he's doing well in June
he’ll move up to Stockton and Stassi will go to KC.
I could be wrong of course.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
And Ortiz is going out with Bud Black's daughter
Who negotiated his contract, so getting great coaching on the side
I'd like to see someone make an argument
for Ortiz over other 2009 draftees Krol, Marks, and Josh Leyland—all of whom were considered better prospect than Ortiz at the time of last year’s draft.
Ortiz was pretty good in Vancouver, but I don’t see how that moves him past the other more highly touted prospects. It should also be noted that Ortiz had 13 passed balls in 44 games as a catcher, most in the Northwest League.
I don't really think he IS in front of Krol
I think Krol’s next on my list after Figueroa. Both of them really ought to be significantly higher on this list.
Marks gets docked relative to Ortiz for being a pitcher who’s already had an injury. (Yes, not an arm injury, but groin pulls can be annoyingly recurring too.)
Leyland is a strange situation. At the time he was talked about as being decently talented, yet he signed very quickly for what’s believed to be only slightly over slot money. He hardly played this season, but when he did he looked like… well, like a 16th round pick who signed for only slightly above slot money (11 whiffs in 20 at-bats).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
A few things on Leyland
One, he sustained a leg injury during his abbreviated AZL season; it’s difficult to tell exactly when he injured himself, but that could have affected his performance significantly. Two, we’re talking about 20 ABs here. Three, Leyland was something of a late bloomer on the high school prospect scene, so he’s probably a project-with-upside guy anyway.
I would caution against reading too much into the signing money. For high schoolers like Leyland, bonuses are a function of the degree of the player’s desire to immediately go to the pros, plus perceived talent, not actual talent. It’s not like once Leyland was drafted, his agent went to Beane and said, “Listen, he’s not actually that good, so we’ll take slot money.”
There could be any one of a number of things happening here that we didn’t hear about – Leyland was really happy to be drafted by a west coast team, he had a rough bout of grades his senior year and decided college wasn’t for him…who knows. I’d bet that if teams had been aware of that willingness to sign before the draft, he would’ve gone higher.
That said, he’s so far from the majors that he shouldn’t be on this list yet. And I’d take Krol, Marks, and Ortiz in front of him too. Although Marks may be significantly behind the other two in my mind – boring, Simmons-esque stuff and already injured = oy already.
I voted "Figgy" and have tied the score at 28-28!
Excitement.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I went Marks
How many of these guys could you draft in the third round and have it not be a reach?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Demel was drafted in the 3rd round
It wasn’t a reach and he has performed well in two pro seasons. I was perfectly happy with the Marks draft pick but I think Demel’s track record puts him ahead.
True enough
I like Demel and would have him on the list soon. But he is a relief pitcher while Marks is a SP.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Figueroa was named the Minor League Pitcher of The Year by the front office and the 7th best prospect in the Cal League by Baseball America and you guys think he’s only the 20th best prospect??
When Beane talks trades with GM’s, i guarantee they are asking for FIgueroa before Capra, Hornbeck, Simmons, Demel, Coleman etc.
Demel is better
You have two pitchers, both 23 years old.
One has a 5.55 mle FIP in A-ball.
One has a 3.61 mle FIP in AAA.
Who’s better? Demel by a mile.
To be fair,
the MLE takes into account which level the player is at, so the same stats in A ball would result in a much better MLE in AAA, making it redundant to emphasize what level they’re each at when discussing the MLE.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Not true
AAA = fewer pre-MLB seasons to risk injury
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Alright, true enough,
just the wording made it seem like the fact that Figueroa is in A ball makes the MLE number worse, whereas the MLE number is already effected by this fact.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Regis can I'd like to ask the audience
It is starting to shape up as a two pony race so I think I am just going to focus on learning as much as I can about Demel and The Fig atm.
"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra
Couple of decent arms
Demel is a college drafted power reliever who has a strong fastball/slider combo who has shown the ability to strike guys out but has had issues with walks. His K-rate and groundball tendencies suggest he could be a pretty formidable closer but his BB-rate has bounced around a lot different levels. Last year at AAA he was walked 21 guys in 32.1 innings which is way too much.
Figueroa is a Dominican signing who took awhile to figure things out upon joining the system but has shown signs of improvement lately which really has scouts excited. He is a lefty starter with a good fastball/slider combo similar to Demel, but I don’t know how his change-up is.(I would guess it’s mediocre or else we would have heard about it) He only made it to high A ball last season and has shown a good ability to strike guys out but struggles with control. He seemed to improve his walk rate at low A but it ballooned when he got promoted to Stockton.
They are somewhat similar pitchers who can strike guys out but still have significant work to do on control. Demel is closer to the majors and more likely to contribute as a reliever, but Figueroa still has a chance to stick as a starter which would make him a lot more valuable if he made it to the majors.
I personally went with Figueroa because of his chance to stick as a starter and the positive reviews from scouts. (BA rated him the 7th best prospect in the California League and he one the organizations minor league pitcher of the year award.) But I do have somewhat of a bias against relief prospects who struggle to throw strikes.
Two main differences in a nutshell:
Demel is a reliever, while Figueroa is a starter. Advantage Figueroa.
Demel looks good in AAA and looked awesome in AA, while Figueroa has not yet been tested beyond single A. Advantage Demel.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Voted for Ortiz
I like his bat and he should be a solid defender behind the plate when all is said and done
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Dec 5, 2009 3:51 PM PST reply actions
I voted Dixon
Because the legendary PT chastised my vote for H-Rod over him on the 20 slot. Upon further research I believe Dixon has incredible potential.
Why do you see Dixon having "incredible potential"?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
has Matt Sulentic
lost his prospect status entirely? I know he had a couple of unimpressive seasons a while back and his lack of power is frustrating, but his stat line at AA last year wasn’t chopped liver (granted, it was in the Texas league) and he’s only 22, right? I think he at least warrants consideration for nomination in the 25-50 range.
He's still a prospect
But he is sliding because he really doesn’t have a clear path to being a productive outfielder. His main reason for success is that he has managed to put up ridiculously high BABIP’s the last couple years.
I haven’t been tempted to vote for him yet because the only way for him to succeed as a corner outfielder involve either; taking a major step forward in his contact rate, drastically improving his ability to take a walk, showing a significant improvement in power, or somehow manage to continue to hit around .380 on balls he puts in play. The first three could show some improvement but he has been a pro for a while now, if he had it in him to make the significant improvements in those areas I feel like we would have seen signs of it by now. As far as his BABIP, that is partially under the batters control and he has a good track record, but nobody BABIP’s .380 in the majors and if his dropped to a still very good .330 he would be a pretty terrible hitter.
This is true
but all of it basically applies to Shane Peterson too… about the only difference between them is SNTS. Both of them have a good batting average and lack secondary skills.
I think both of them make it onto the team’s top 50, but I have a hard time seeing top 30 for either player. I don’t think I’d trade Jason Christian for either of them, to take one example— and he’s not exactly drawing a ton of support yet.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
There is not a lot separating the two
But I do like Peterson a bit more. One reason is his better contact ability, a 20% K-rate is too high for someone without much power or patience but it is significantly better than 25% K-rates Sulentic has been posting.
The second reason probably is tainted a bit by SNTS but I look at Peterson’s smaller amount of time in pro ball as sign that he may not have set a true baseline for his skills yet. He showed a pretty good ability to take a walk in college posting a 1:1 K/BB rate his last two years at Long Beach State. I may be completely off base but I feel like the Cardinals strategy of aggressive promotion of their college draftees as well as their reputation as an organization that doesn’t exactly preach patience at the plate may have suppressed Peterson’s BB-rate a bit.
That’s not to say Peterson is a great bet to be a good corner outfielder, but I do prefer him to Sulentic by a not insignificant margin.
Does Sulentic
have the defensive ability to play center field? He seems to have above average speed on the base paths, and I think he’s seen some time in center. It would seem that his production would be more in line with a center fielder anyhow.
I don't think he's an option in center
He’s a bit short and squat and early on in his career he was a pretty bad defender and base runner. According to most reports he’s made great strides in both areas and is now considered above average and even managed to steal a few bases last year, but even with his improvement I don’t think he has the pure speed or athleticism to handle center field.
I thought Peterson was supposed to be a bit more projectable too
Scouting report wise. Better defensively, somewhat of a chance he’ll develop some power. Or am I just way wrong?
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Dec 6, 2009 7:08 PM PST up reply actions
He's taller, yeah
Not sure how projectable he’s viewed as being though.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He's been a pro for awhile, but always young for his league
I agree that Sulentic hasn’t shown the secondary skills to be a real corner OF prospect, but I think that’s a least partly due to his being one of the youngest players in the leagues he’s played in. If he had been allowed to repeat at Stockton in 2009, I suspect he would have shown more power and walks. I think he should be left at Midland for another year to see if that power develops.
He’s a year and a half younger than Grant Desme, and they had the same MLE in 2009.
Went with Marks this time
Largely just on draft position. I can’t really make up my mind between him and Figueroa though.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
This is a bit interesting
According to milb.com, Connor Hoehn is ultimately ticketed to start. He showed well in his brief time in the minors last year, with 28 strikeouts in 20 innings. He has a pretty impressive fastball but primitive offspeed pitches.
It’ll be a while before he’s relevant, but he’s probably somewhere within the back half of the top 50.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
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