2010 Prospectus
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 2:39 AM PST
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PrintFellow ANers,
A while back I took 'g'rover's bait, and took a stab at the A's future with my 2010 offseason primer. Today, along with some other housekeeping, I have decided to update/continue that endeavor with my 2010 prospectus. After all, so much has taken place since my last stab at the 2010 A's.
First, Cust is likely gone given he was not offered arbitration. The truth is, while many have disparaged Cust's defense (err lack thereof) and K numbers (err worst in the league), he does have value to AL teams and will find work as a DH next season. Its guaranteed! In the end, GMs may double take on the defense and Ks, but Cust's power and high walk rate will land him somewhere. IMO, its not totally out of the question that Billy will bring the guy back, just at a less expensive rate then arbitration would have required. Some may argue otherwise given the Fox acquisition, but the two of them together, along with the constant flux that will most likely consume 3B in 2010. screams platoon. I will, however, leave that for the winds of change, and discuss it if/when it happens. For the record, I dont really care either way as 2010 is most likely going to be blase (accent over the 'e'), and I believed before that, even if he was offered arbitration, 2010 was gonna be Jack's last year as an Athletic.
As for Jake Fox, count me a believer. Hell, if Jack Cust can pull off miracles at age 28, then why not Fox at 27. After all, Fox's debut with the Cubs, batting .259 with 11 HRs and 44 RBIs in 82 games, was much better than Cust's with the Rockies or the O's. Based on said numbers, I predict similar production to Cust, from Fox, in the power department. I think that 25-30 HRs is totally possible, and with less Ks too. Sure, the guy is below average in the field, but he provides power from the right side (which the A's have lacked since forever) and he cant be worse than Cust was, right? Hopefully he will just play full time DH. Besides, if Chavy's back is healthy........err.........if McPherson's back is healthy and he can put it together in the bigs.......err.....on second thought we should expect a lot of 3B time for Fox. Im down with that though, cause Brett Wallace...... errr....... nevermind.
The Rule 5 is also in the past, and amazingly, the A's were not raided for young talent at any level. I consider this a minor miracle that one decent prospect was not taken, though Im not going to question the A's good fortune. Rather, we should just count our Rule 5 blessings this year (or lack thereof in recent years), and move on. Billy was able to pluck a decent prospect with the 10th pick, and even better, Bobby Cassevah was an Angel. True, it is most likely that he will be returned to the Angels at some point in 2010. If, however, Cassevah manages to stick, it will be a small victory in the continuing struggle against the Mickies and Minnies of the south. (Not to mention I'll get to stick it to all my SoCal friends that love the Angels)
And then there is the biggest news since I last posted.......
I really like the deal for Mike Taylor, as it does several things for the A's. First, while I liked to think Wallace could play a respectable 3B, the odds were against him. Body type, the pressure of following a 6 time gold glover you immortalized as a child, and lack of mobility/range were all detriments to his possible success in Oakland. Billy, as he so often does, appears to have made another cold/calculated decision, and I cant say I blame him. Thus, this trade pushes Cardenas to 3B sooner rather than later, where he can get comfortable (all reports are that he will be fine at 3rd), and continue his ascent to the bigs sometime late next season or early 2011. Pushing Cardenas to 3B clearly leaves Weeks as the man of the future at 2B once Ellis is gone, and puts power back in the A's 3B future with Cardenas. Also, when you consider the possibility/probability that Wallace would have had to play 1B/DH, this trade alleviates some of the log jam at the position. Sure having too much talent at one position is never a huge problem, but having all of your power potential locked up at one position would have been a bit of a thorn in the side of any A's future success. Sure, Billy would have dealt with it soon enough if that turned out to be the case, but sooner, in this case, seems better considering the return in Taylor.
Taylor also provides the A's with another power bat from the right side, and when added to Carter and Fox, its clear Billy wants to turn what has been a serious weakness, into a serious strength. I drool over the A's possible lineup of the future, and on that note I would like to revisit my projected lineup for 2010, with the appropriate changes.......
1. Davis CF - Great holdover till Desme in 2011 or 2010 Sept callups, then some value in trade depending on production.
2. Sweeney RF - Billy loves him, he's our RF for some time, hope the power comes. *UPDATE* With the addition of Taylor, Sweeney needs to produce or he will find 2010 to be his last season as a starter. I think Hairston will be the first to go when Taylor is ready, but if Sweeney fails to produce any more power, he will quickly be the next to go. After all Desme/Brown/Cunningham are all waiting in the wings.
3. Zukes C - Most valuable player on the team by far, best 3 hole option until Wallace or Carter take it from him.
4. Cust DH - One more season as the starting DH. *UPDATE* Fox DH - lets hope he stays here most of the time.
5. Hairston LF - Sink or Swim. If he sinks, there are plenty of others waiting in the wings for their shot. *UPDATE* He will start the season, but his days are clearly numbered with Taylor, Desme, Brown, and Cunningham all in the wings.
6. Barton 1B - If he can start strong, he will last, and Cust will be let go when Carter arrives. *UPDATE* Barton's seat is still red hot, but maybe not on fire, as it was prior to Wallace being traded.
7. Pennington SS - Play better than BoCro and this job is yours till Green or Ladendorf are ready.
8. Ellis 2B - One more season (2011 is team option) until Weeks takes over in 2011 or Sept 2010
9. AK 3B - Starts until Wallace is ready, PH and 2B/3B sub once Wallace arrives. *UPDATE* McPhereson/Chavy 3B - Clearly I was wrong with the Kennedy talk, but I give this pairing about 10 games before the crap starts to flirt with the fan.
As for the rotation in 2010.........
1. Anderson
2. Cahill
3. Braden
4. Tomko - Could be Tomko or Duke or other comparable veteran.
5. Gonzalez/Mazarro
And just for fun, here's my look ahead to 2011.........
1. 2B Weeks
2. C Zukes
3. LF Taylor
4. RF Carter
5. DH Fox
6. 3B Cardenas
7. CF Brown/Desme
8. 1B Barton
9. SS Green
The batting order has no real plan or thinking behind it other than Weeks leading off, and Im sure many of you have other plans, but this is what I hope to see in 2011. It would have to be one of the youngest teams in MLB history, but oh would the future be bright in Oakland.
And on that note, one last thing......
With all this talk about Oakland finally getting serious about a stadium and San Francisco possibly suing over any A's move to San Jose, Im starting to really like looking into the A's future. First I'd like to say, "DONT YOU DARE TEASE ME RON DELLUMS!!" If Dellums and the City Council are just playing politics, thats FUBAR and Dellums and my councilman will be sure to hear from me at a town meeting or two. (I encourage all A's fans to express all frustrations at city council meetings.) However, if they are serious, the committee appointed by Selig and MLB cant ignore it, especially with the litigation nightmare San Francisco appears to be preparing.
Lastly, for the first time in my life, all Oaklanders should be rooting for Frisco and the Giants to succeed. Lew "I Hate Oakland" Wolf and his band of cronies have wanted to move the team from the start. Before there was nothing we could really say, as Dellums and Oakland had failed to pick up the ball in this matter. However, now that we have a clear plan/path forward in Oakland, its time we citizens give voice to our frustrations and put all the pressure we can on our local public officials. For several years it has seemed that the A's would leave Oakland, but now there is hope this wont happen.
My only question is, what did you do to stop it when you had the chance?
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yea and if frisco does succeed. Goodbye A's in Cali.
Wolff is moving the team if he doesnt get San Jose. Oakland has run out of oppurtunties a long time ago.
I dont buy that at all.......
The Oakland City Council has clearly presented MLB with three possible sites to build along the ‘re-gentrified’ Oakland waterfront. Oakland is showing its clearly not out of the game, it just took a while to get started.
Its not about Lew Wolf, the ass that he is. Remember, the other owners have to allow the move to SJ cause of the Giants rights to the region. Couple that with what will be a massive lawsuit on the part of SF, and I think its more likely than ever the A’s will stay in Oakland. Also remember, moving the A’s elsewhere in Cali or the nation as a whole would take some serious time, probably years. The MLB panel looking into the issue wants this resolved by early 2010, meaning at this point its the Oakland waterfront or SJ, or nothing at all, for years.
Keeping the A’s in Oakland works for everyone too. The Giants arent pissed and dont need massive compensation. San Francisco is not pissed, does not need compensation, and doesn’t file a costly/timely/nasty lawsuit. Oakland keeps its team, Oakland gets construction jobs it desperately needs, and The A’s get a brand spanking new state of the art stadium on the waterfront.
In other words, now is definitely not the time for Oaklanders to give up. Rather its time to fight tooth and nail for OUR TEAM.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 4:35 AM PST up reply actions
You can't really argue with people like this.
It’s really a scorched earth mentality at this point.
The problem is there are not enough people and companies in the East Bay supporting the team, and so people like s0sNe come up with this “magic bullet” that if we build a NEW stadium in the same place as the old one all tens of thousands of people and companies will magically appear out of thin air to support their team. THEY DON’T EXIST. I challenge anyone is support of the Giants sucessfully suing San Jose and MLB to SHOW ME where these 30,000 people willing to pay $30 per ticket are hiding, because I don’t know of a single person saying, “Gee, I’d buy a season ticket if they’d just untarp the third deck or bring in a superstar like Matt Holiday.” To risk being cliche, there is no there there.
There is no conspiracy by Lew Wolf to hide these people by covering a top deck that never got used by anyone willing to pay over $2 a ticket. The only conspiracy is to move the A’s to where those people and businesses now reside. It’s a very logical and obvious concept, but the people against the A’s moving are thinking with emotion and not logic. Moving the A’s to Oakland made sense when it happened, but after the silicon revolution of the ’80s, the population and $$$ to support the team now reside in the South Bay, not the East.
This lawsuit isn’t about the Giants helping the A’s stay in Oakland, the Giants are suing because they know the fan support in the East Bay isn’t enough to keep the A’s in the Bay Area and if the A’s don’t move the Giants will have the entire Bay all to themselves and be able to raise ticket prices another 25%. You just can’t argue with someone who would sacrifice their team to scumbags like Nukem because of their emotional attachment to their city.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Dec 20, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
Where to begin.....
Actually I dont want a staduim in the same old place, rather in one of the 3 waterfront locations the city council has recently proposed. Also, there are plenty of fans in Oakland, were just tired of being kicked in the balls by a terrible owner, giving away all our talent, and constantly losing the last severall years. There is also plenty of business in downtown Oakland, and with a new Stadium along the waterfront, AND A DECENT TEAM, will bring all the sponsorship the A’s need. No one wants to invest in a product that might leave, is a constant loser, and plays ball on a concrete block in the middle of the Hegenburger.
You state that it was the scilicon revolution that killed the $$$$ and population of Oakland. I dont buy it. Oakland has always been BLUE COLLAR, not white collar, and Oaklands jobs went to China and elsewhere in the late 70’s and 80’s along with the rest of the manufacturing/labor jobs in the country. There is a reason why Oakland is referred to the Detroit/Flint of the west.
I also understand that the lawsuit is not about helping the A’s stay in Oakland, but as a byproduct of said litigation it helps accomplishes that goal. Lastly, we are YEARS away from the A’s leaving the Bay if SJ does not work out and Oakland still gets the shaft. YEARS BRO!
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions
You are still ignoring the basic premise--there are no people in Oakland willing to support the team.
1) A waterfront property in Oakland is still in Oakland. You still don’t have 30,000 fans or businesses with deep pocket in the area to support the team. Moving the A’s 3 miles west will not make season ticket holders appear out of thin air, or to put it another way, you can polish crap all you want, but in the end you still only have very shiny crap. If you move the A’s to a water front ballpark, within 5 years you’d be right back to the same situation you were in before with nothing to show for it but 300,000,000 down the drain on a shiny new ballpark.
2) Stop blaming things on Wolf, not only does he have nothing to do with the situation. To blame him you have to ignore so many easily verifiable facts, you might as well be a flat Earther. Lets take a look at some of these:
—You say the reason the A’s have the worst attendance in baseball and no sponsorship is because the team isn’t good, yet 10 or more teams have had WORSE RECORDS then the A’s the last 3 years and still had better attendance then the A’s.
—You claim that if the A’s had talent on their team our mythical 30,000 fans would appear, yet the A’s went out and brought in a super stars in Matt Holiday, Jason Giambi, and Nomah last year and STILL had the worst attendance in baseball.
At what point do we stop blaming the owner and blame the fans?
3) Well you just made my point int he second paragraph didn’t you; Oakland is the Detroit of the west. The people and the jobs needed to support a MLB team have moved away over the last 30 years, and Oakland hasn’t been left with the fan base to support the team. MLB teams nowadays need 30,000 fans a game and companies like Cisco, Adobe, and E-Bay supporting them to be successful, not 10,000 fans and a handful of businesses in downtown Oakland.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Dec 21, 2009 1:15 AM PST up reply actions
OK.....
First, your obviously not from Oakland, cause if you were you would understand that the A’s attendance was fine prior to Wolf. Here are the actual figures in Oakland. You should actually look at these before you make arguments that dont make sense.
Average attendance /Game – Oakland A’s
1988 – 28,239
1989 – 32,929
1990 – 35,805
1991 – 33,500
1992 – 30,792
1993 – 25,124
1994 – 21,802
1995 – 16,310
1996 – 14,178
1997 – 15,608
1998 – 15,214
1999 – 17,712
2000 – 19,922
2001 – 26,339
2002 – 26,788
2003 – 27,365
2004 – 27,179
2005 – 26,040
2006 – 24,402
2007 – 23,726
2008 – 19,986
2009 – 17,392
Looking at these numbers, its clear! A decent product, AND AN OWNER THAT DOSENT $HIT ON HIS FANS, and the A’s can draw 30,000 a game as they have proven in the past. Give them a new stadium on the waterfront and that number could be 35000 bra!
You might think Oakland is crap, but Im from here, live here, and will likely die here, and MY CITY IS NOT CRAP. You ask when we can stop blaming the owner? Easy! When he stops crapping on Oakland, Oakland fans, and trying to move the team, all of which he has done since he came to be the owner.
You call me a flat earther, but it seems Im the one looking at facts in this argument.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 21, 2009 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Also, by the way.....
I chose 1988 as the start year, because most of the blue collar manufacturing jobs that Oakland lost, they had already lost them at that point. The 90s and 2000s have been all about the outsourcing of WHITE COLLAR jobs, ironically disproportionately affecting SJ and surrounding areas now and in the future, not Oakland, though Oakland will lose a much smaller percentage according to various studies.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 21, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm....Methinks your condescending tirade of a first paragraph
would work better if you used “you’re” correctly and/or spelled the name of the A’s owner correctly.
On the topic itself: Oakland isn’t crap, but not very many fans come to Oakland A’s games, for whatever reason and whosever fault that is. Even 28,000-35,000 isn’t that impressive for a team that’s in the World Series 3 years in a row.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 21, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And has one of the highest payrolls in the league, to boot
The A’s in that period were a money-losing franchise.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
by PaulThomas on Dec 21, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Lew doesn't deserve to have his name spelled right......
and as for your 35, 000 comment…….
2/3s of the league, THATS 20 TEAMS, averaged 35,000 or less last season. If the A’s can get into the 28 to 35,000 range, in a new stadium outside the Hegenburger, the A’s will be sitting pretty and doing just fine thank you.
Here’s the link…..
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance
Who cares about spelling, facts are facts, and and the logic is clear as day in this case. Folks from Oakland don’t appreciate getting crapped on with baseless arguments, thus my tone in the previous comment. But hey, I recognize my tone was a little harsh, and thus apologize to threepwood.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 22, 2009 3:33 AM PST up reply actions
No need to apologize, I have thick skin.
But your logic is still faulty.
You know what, it would get great if Uncle Lew could put out a team that goes to the world series three years in a row, but as PT states, the way the A’s did that in the late ‘80s (and the Yankees now) is by having the biggest payroll in league. So, unless Uncle Lew is willing to sink $150 million more of his and John Fisher’s money per year into the A’s that is really an unrealistic expectation.
What is a realistic expectation for a normal team not named the Yankees or BoSox? To build from within, and have enough cheap, cost-controlled talent to be able to, with some veterans signed long term, compete for 5 to 6 years, then rebuild again. And, duing this time, not have the lowest attendance in the league.
So lets look at the FACTS you ignore.
1) In order to draw 30,000 people in Oakland the A’s have to go to the world series every year, but in order to do the Wolff has to Spend $200,000,000 a year on the team. That is just not cost effective unless you are the Yankees who: (a) draw 60,000 a game (b) have every business in New York sponsoring the team and ( c) have TV ratings that make the A’s look like a local access TV program. Therefore, your qualifier for the As to get in the 28,000 to 30,00 range just isn’t realistic because it would cost too much $$$.
2) So where are the fans? Well the Giants draw from SF, the North Bay (even though it’s A’s terratorry), and the South Bay, leaving A’s with their 300,000 people in Oakland and whomever is willing to brave the Capital corridor from Sac. Therein lies the problem, their potential pool of viewers is just too small. To get to 30,000 viewers they would need 10% of the entire population of Oakland to show up, or make massive inroads into the Giant’s strongholds of the North and South bay.
3) How do we get those fans? Well we could build a"water front" stadium 3 miles
west of the current one, except while you would see a temperary boost from East Bay residents in attendance, it wouldn’t be anywhere near the 10% or Oakland we need, and without a $200,000,000 team the A’s would quickly fall back to old attendance records since we haven’t really made any new fan inroads. The North Bay is off limits since Marin County is more of a suberb for San Francisco’s upper class, so the best place is San Jose. They have a population of over 1,0000,000 (three times that of Oakland) and and they do something Oaklanders don’t do—SHOW UP (the Sharks sell every game out). I talk to familys where I work and here the same story every time, “I’m a Giants fan, but if the A’s built a stadium down here I would take my kids all the time.” San Jose is an affluent untapped market, whom is just waiting for a team to NOT force them to drive 40 miles to see it.
The best way, and the only cost effective way, to expend the fan base is to build in San Jose, because blaiming Lew Wolff for not spending $200,000,000 on the team every year just ins’t realistic.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Dec 22, 2009 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
We must agree to disagree....
but the last thing I will say is not even Lew was planning on 30,000 fans in Fremont. The Stadium would have been a 27000 seat house, so the whole argument is pointless. The new facility they are planning, no matter where it is, will likely be 30,000 or less, and thus way more economical.
As for your #1, the A’s drew just fine at the beginning of the decade and that was not a team with a 150-200 mill payroll, quite the opposite in fact. So your argument makes no sense.
Again, if we can return to the attendance of 2001-2005, we will be just fine in a new stadium. Any argument against this is baseless, and ignores the facts.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 25, 2009 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
i bet against that
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.
I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.
RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."
(MT)
you think a guy with a 730 OPS is the best #3 hole option we have?
okay, we are the worst team in baseball then.
Dont put too much into the order of things......
rather the players and the positions of thos players are most important IMO. I do like Zukes there though, cause he is the best proven hitter the A’s have right now, and only guy even close to being an All Star in the field.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 11:45 PM PST up reply actions
but
he’s an all star based off his defense. he’s a woeful hitter and a ground-into-double-play machine. he’d be hitting 8th or 9th on a good team.
?????
Kurt Suzuki is NOT a woeful hitter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yep.
A hair below league-average, but he’s a catcher. The positional adjustment is huge.
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
This
Relative to catchers, he’s pretty good.
Relative to all hitters, he’s not.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
But either way, he's far from woeful.
Bobby Crosby is a woeful hitter. Henry Blanco, Ronny Paulino, Paul Bako, and Kenji Johjima: Woeful hitting catchers.
Kurt Suzuki: Not “woeful” with or without positional adjustment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Unless you actually say "WOAH" a lot when you watch him
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
And no one has any particularly good way to assess his defensive value
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
posseion is 9/10ths ...
Oakland has plenty of money. The Montclair district. Crocker Highlands. The city of Piedmont; where fat-cats like Al Davis lives, etc.
Lew is making very little effort to TRULY promote the A’s, in Oakland.
a bit of evidence: the way they mishandled the 40th anniversary, and the 20th anniversary of the last world series… it felt like they did it, because they “had to”.
the disdain for Oakland, fuels the downward attendance trend.
by GrewUpAtTheColiseum on Dec 20, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions
Could not have said it better myself my friend......
With a new stadium along the waterfront, and a decent product on the field, Oakland business will step up, as will the fans.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
Tomko and Duke, in the same sentence as if interchangeable?
Somewhere, a puppy just caught pneumonia.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yea that is kinda suspect.....
I would totally take Duke over Tomko, but at this point its questionable that the A’s would get either one. Another guy somewhere in the middle would be nice though to help stabilize this rotation of kids.
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Dec 20, 2009 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
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