The One Where The A's Likely Lose Duke and Have A Holiday Caravan
by baseballgirl on Dec 2, 2009 8:00 AM PST
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PrintIn case you missed yesterday's news, the A's have offered Justin Duchscherer arbitration.This means that Duke has until Monday to accept or decline the offer. Should he decline, the A's will receive a compensatory pick in the 2010 draft. According to Urban:
It's highly unlikely that Duchscherer, a two-time All-Star who made the American League team as a reliever in 2005 and as a starter in 2008, will accept Oakland's offer because he'd run the risk of taking a pay cut. In arbitration, the A's can propose up to a 20-percent decrease on his 2009 salary.
Duchscherer, whose agent has been contacted by several teams (including the A's), likely will get a raise on the open market, but given his injury history -- his 2007 and 2008 seasons were cut short by hip injuries that required surgery -- he'll probably have to accept a contract that features incentive clauses based on how much he pitches.
How do we feel about this?Is there even a chance he will stay?
In other news, the A's Holiday Caravan begins tomorrow at the Walnut Creek Holiday Parade of Lights and Tree Lighting at Broadway Plaza. Rajai Davis, Brad Ziegler and Stomper will be there to take photos and sign autographs. They will be in San Ramon on Friday, Emeryville and Pleasanton on Saturday, and San Jose on Sunday.
Is anyone from AN going to an event this weekend? And on a side note, am I the only one who now has to double-check the spelling of "Holiday" each and every time I type it?
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he won't accept arbitration
but that doesn’t necessarily mean the A’s can’t sign him, right? I think that, if the A’s decide to take a chance with one of the free agent pitchers with health problems (Harden, Bedard, Sheets, Duchscherer, Mulder, anyone else I’m forgetting?), then Duke is a pretty decent pick.
Do you really think BB would think about bringing Harden back?
Somehow, I see the A’s and BB being somewhat glad they’re not dealing with his health issues anymore.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 2, 2009 9:37 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Somehow, I see Rich Harden being somewhat glad the A's aren't in charge of his medical care anymore
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 2, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
As an A's fan, I am THRILLED to never have to worry about Harden and his glass arm/shoulder/back any more
Hey Al, just go away, baby.
I like King Richard,
and will root for him in any games he pitches that are not against the A’s,
unless he is pitching for Seattle, Anaheim, Texas, or the White Sox.
I also root for him to be able to comb his own hair and brush his own teeth after his career is over.
Do these two conflict?
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 2, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions
i was at the game
where he took a perfect game into the 8th. i do miss that.
i personally see him as the most talented pitcher we’ve had in the last 15, but brett anderson may end up taking that spot
I sure hope so.
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 2, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
This is correct, and important
A decline of arbitration by Duke does not prevent the A’s from signing him to a new contract through the normal free agent procedure.
Waiting a few days is really only a formality; there is zero chance that he accepts the offer. But it had to be made to preserve the draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Thanks for clarifying that.
So the A’s are still in the hunt, even after he declines (and they have to find some money to offer him, of course)
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Dec 2, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
I'm sure that both the A's and Duchscherer realize
that the type of contract that would come out of arbitration just isn’t the right kind of contract for Duke. If they could go to the arbitration board and suggest a contract with low base price but significant incentives for reaching innings pitched thresholds, then maybe arbitration would have worked out.
Even if he accepts it
They could still work out an alternative deal. It’s just taking away Duke’s bargaining position. He’d only stand to gain by accepting if he’d get better than market value out of arbitration, which he won’t.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
20% chance
looks like Duke will have some teams looking at him and being a B FA that will not push many teams away. It was a good move by Beane to offer him arb since it does mean the A’s will get a prospect for him. My best guess he will end up in Philly close to his son in NJ. The funny thing i did read is a few teams ase looking at Crosby but he will hold out for a secure SS job which will cost him. My bet is he will turn down those utility jobs because of his ego until a SS job opens up.
and for him, a SS job never will
Hold on to your ego, Crosby! Retire before they demote you!
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 2, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions
Ed Crosby = Mike Love
“I was aware that Bobby was beginning to experiment with Third Base and other positions. The prevailing moneyball jargon at the time had it playing more positions would shatter one’s ego, as if this were a positive thing… I wasn’t interested in playing more positions or getting rid of my ego.”
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
OMG
Does this make Bobby Crosby Carnie Wilson or something?
let’s face it, she’d get to the outside slider better than him.
Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?
by emperor nobody on Dec 3, 2009 3:04 AM PST up reply actions
Or maybe he's one of the Phillips girls, in which case I'm sorry for him
and wish him the best.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
OT: for serious Pet Sounds fans
I’d recommend tracking down “Gideon Gaye” by The High Llamas, an album (a career, really) heavily indebted to Pet Sounds, but much more than a slavish copy given head Llama Sean O’Hagan’s impressive skills as a lyricist and composer/arranger.
let's be clear here
There’s no guarantee that the A’s get a compensatory draft pick for Duke just because he declines arbitration – he has to sign a major league contract with another club in order for that to happen. Just because there is interest out there doesn’t mean he’s assured a contract with another club by the June 1st deadline. A number of factors could play into Duchscherer not signing with another team by then: he could fail the physical, in which case it’s unlikely other teams will take a flyer on him with a major league contract; he could decide that the offers out there aren’t as good as they would be if he waits until mid season to sign (unlikely, but still a possibility); he could decide he’s still not mentally prepared to pitch, and hold off on signing with another team. Just wanted to make sure we all understood that the A’s don’t automatically recieve a pick just for offering arbitration.
On one of the DLDs, someone
suggested that Duke would prefer to play for an East Coast team so that he can be closer to his kid in New Jersey. I think that’s true and it will be the biggest factor in his choosing a team to sign with. So a West Coast team isn’t going to get him unless they offer something else to make up for it. Other factors are likely to be total money, and assurances he’ll be a starter as opposed to used in the bullpen.
I don’t see Oakland scoring well on any of these three. In fact, I don’t see any factors at all that would lead Duchscherer to want to re-sign with Oakland. The only reason I don’t say “absolutely no way” is recognition that there may be things I don’t know about.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Assuming for a second that the A's don't re sign Duchscherer
I’m kinda in two minds about where I’d like to see him end up (not that what I’d like matters one iota, obviously).
On one hand, I’m sure he’d do very well in the NL, and we’d be spared the seemingly inevitable sight of him carving up the A’s lineup; on the other, if he signs for an AL team, I’ll be buying tickets for the first game he plays back in Oakland.
Maybe he should sign for a team in the NL West, so we can see him in AT+T making the Giants look silly on a regular basis.
He’s one of my favorite players to watch, when he’s pitching well, so let’s hope he’s back strong next year, no matter where.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Why can't we keep our nice things?
We never get to hold on to our good players, and it’s tiring.
Always the knife or the wallet stops us. (sad Mobius)
This is why we can't have nice things
Okay, IF he’s able to block a possible SJ move then he’s the reason.
"She's kinda got cankles, our kids are gonna have to play soccer." ~ Mrs. "Disco" Hayes
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 2, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
From What I've Read...
The A’s have worked very closely, particularly their support staff and psych guy, with Duke. I’d think that particular fact will work in Oakland’s favor. Other than that, it wouldn’t make a huge amount of difference being an East or West Coast team, unless it was the Phillies or the Mets. The problem with both is that they’re large market teams with a lot of media scrutiny. I think, if the price is right, he’ll stick with the A’s. There is NO guarantee with the Phils that he’ll stay a starter, and the Mets are a mess.
I guess we'll know on Monday
But even if he made the rotation this year, there is certainly no guarantee of next year. It seems like that’s what he’s looking for — an assurance that he will start for more than one year — something that the A’s cannot and probably should not provide at this point.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
if he's back to form
I’d love to keep him in the rotation for the next couple years. He’d be the steady hand for the young guys.
I think he’s the only guy we should be considering to sign out of the FA pool. What would he cost to give him a fair deal? $6M-$7M a year? I’d do that.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Sure, I'd love to have him, too
But I don’t think it’s in the cards. Duke isn’t happy he won’t start, and the A’s have many up-and-coming pitchers they want to season in majors.
I’d bet on Tomko coming back before Duke. If nothing else, he’s cheaper.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 2, 2009 11:19 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
Having the top three spots in the rotation nailed down by Braden, Duke and Anderson gives us a TON of flexibility on the back end of the rotation. Over the next few years, whomever is the best out of Cahill, Gio, Outman, Mortensen, Simmons, FDLS, Mazzaro, Ynoa, etc. can take up the last two spots. It also gives us a lot of room for trades from a position of strength.
Haha....is Buck still on the team?
I keep forgetting ;-)
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Dec 2, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Buck's caravan will be in Sacramento
Then he’ll be rushed down to the East Bay for the last 5 minutes of one of the caravans, where he’ll just sit in the background as Rajai, Zig and Stomper sign all the autographs.
Day seized!
you're cold, man
But I laughed aloud at that one!
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 2, 2009 11:16 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
he'll start off by signing with a flourish
but by the end, it’ll just be initials, and next week it’ll emerge that he had an undisclosed finger injury
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
As of now....
Duke is the 18th ranked FA to be offered arb. If all 18 (and Duke) were to sign with teams other than their 2009 ones, the A’s would receive the 50th pick of the draft. My guess is a few of those 18 will re-sign with their original teams. There are 5 relievers (Valverde, Gonzalez, Soriano, Betancourt, and Lyon) and I can’t see all of them gaining picks. But given the Braves singing of Wagner, they must expect some for Soriano and Gonzalez.
Other guys who might re-sign or accept arb and are ranked ahead of Duke: Pudge, Bay, Figgins, and Marquis.
In other words, I’d estimate Duke would garner around the 42nd pick or so. After the A’s lack of compensation picks the last few years, that pick could be especially helpful. Some interesting picks near 42 last year: Kentrail Davis (39) and Tanner Scheppers (44).
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Their fans are singing the "Lost Draft Pick Blues"
Frank Wren really doesn’t have a clue, does he? That’s twice now that he’s donated a 1st round pick to another team for the privilege of signing an injury-riddled veteran pitcher to a 1-year contract. (Not to mention the FORMER 1st-rounder he donated for a year of the corpse of Mark Kotsay…)
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Soriano or Gonzalez took arbitration. I doubt they feel like becoming this year’s version of Juan Cruz.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Actually this could be a genius move
By signing Wagner, it shows Gonzalez and Soriano that there’s a market for good relievers and they will decline arbitration. They’re both way better than Wagner. This could potentially be the Braves trading the 20th pick for the 35th, 38th, and two second rounders (assuming no other team is stupid enough to give up a 1st rounder for a reliever).
Now, I’ll see if I can find another straw to grasp.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Alternately, it shows them that the only team dumb enough to do that is Atlanta...
causing them to take arbitration…
Soriano in particular has to be sorely tempted; he already got $6.2M this season, and I see no reason that would decline.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It also makes Theo Epstein
look like a genius. Rent Billy Wagner for the play off run in exchange for a couple of low minor league scrubs (including the lesser Chris Carter) and on top of it get the 20th overall pick and a sandwich round pick! Them’s be smart base-ball folk here in Boston.
See, what's hilarious is that MLB Dish or whatever it's called
said it was a “great steal” for Wren.
No, really.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Is this blog authored by Jon Heyman or something?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I love that we hold blogs to a higher standard of sports journalism than some actual sports journalists.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
'tis the legacy of FJM: they conclusively proved how unutterably stupid mainstream sports journalism is
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I wish FJM were more profitable than sitcom writing,
because sitcoms are old and tired, but FJM remained fresh and funny through the bitter end…
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 3, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
I got it. I chuckled when I read it.
Okay, maybe “chuckled” isn’t the right word. But I’m pretty sure I at least smiled.
by whiteshoes40 on Dec 2, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions
Yay!
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Dec 3, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
Wälse! Wälse! Wo ist dein Tomahawk?
Sorry. Sometimes I actually go more than 10 hours without checking in on AN.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I liked it
And I do, for some reason, pronounce the oft-injured closer as “Vah-gner” in my mind.
Day seized!
wow
as a professional musician who performs frequently on the operatic stage, I’m ashamed to have missed that one! Bravo!
Hojotoho! Hojotoho! Heiaha! Heiaha!
Whoa, there's three of us now?
Are you a singer?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
so we either get duke for one more year or the 44th pick?
sounds like a win-win to me
"They (The 1989 A's) are the best team I ever saw"- Mike Krukow
I'm the contrarian.
I wouldn’t touch Duke with a 10 foot pole. Not even offer arbitration in the hopes of getting a pick… he just might accept.
I totally get the eternal optimism of fans, but c’mon… the guy has way too many issues all at once to believe that all of them will be overcome in one fell swoop.
Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson
Au Contraire
I’d offer him an incentive laden one year deal, with a mutual second-year option. The A’s traditionally have had one older vet in their rotation to anchor it.
The A’s must be prepared for the possibility, neither obvious nor remote, that both Carter and Wallace will begin their major league careers with a bang. In which case, the team needs to have a starting rotation that can keep them in contention. Braden and Anderson are 2/3 of such a starting rotation. Duke would be the third, and the back end will have to take care of itself.
During his three arbitration-eligible seasons with the A's,
you know, the ones where he was hurt all the time and depressed and shit, he was paid $6.3M to provide 2.8 WAR worth of value, or roughly $12.6M. Not good enough for you?
Properly regressed to account for injury, getting a bit lucky in 2008, etc etc, he projects to be a starter at something like a 3.5 ERA next season. This is roughly 1 run per 9 innings better than average, 2 runs better than replacement. His pay rate is going to be similar to last year if he accepts arbitration (roughly $4 million— he is NOT getting a raise from an arbitrator after missing an entire season…). That’s about 0.9 WAR. He will make that up in about seven or eight starts.
We can reduce this decision to an algebraic equation. The numbers are in millions.
p(0.8x-4) + (1-p)(2)=v
where p is the probability that Duchscherer accepts arbitration, and x is the number of innings he throws next season divided by nine. The second term is the value of the compensatory pick (roughly). That equation can be simplified through the distributive property.
0.8xp-4p+2-2p
0.8xp-6p+2
So for starters, no matter WHAT the probability of Duchscherer accepting arbitration is, we already know that if he projects to throw 45 innings, the number has to be zero or positive. (Assume p=1. Then .8x-6+2=v. If x is 5 or greater, v is zero or positive.)
Now, we know that the probability of him taking arb is not 100 percent or close to it. What about if it’s 50 percent?
0.8x(0.5)-6(0.5)+2=v
0.4x-1=v
Now he only needs to be projected to throw 22.5 innings for the team to break even.
What about if his odds of taking arbitration are only 33%?
0.8x(0.333…)-6(0.333…)+2=v
Well, now conveniently enough those last two terms are the same, so v is just whatever the first term is.
He already has offers on the table. Better offers. I think the odds of him taking arb are more like 10 percent (actually less, but I’ll play along for now).
(0.8x) (0.1)-6(0.1)+2=v
v now starts at 1.4 million, and increases by $80,000 for every nine innings Duchscherer projects to throw.
What if p is zero? Then the value is just the value of the comp pick, which I’m calling $2M.
Even with insanely pessimistic assumptions about his innings workload and the odds of him accepting arbitration, the expected value of giving him arbitration remains positive.
In summation: you’re really, really, really wrong.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
Whoa, good stuff.
Rec’d.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
dissenting opinion
While I’m totally on board with PT’s reasoning and conclusion, I think that the presentation does more to obfuscate the point than it does to clarify it. I mean, I like equations but you really only need to demonstrate the two extreme cases (i.e. Duke either accepts or rejects arbitration) to show that the A’s come out ahead in pretty much all circumstances.
I join in your opinion, Colin
Except that technically it’s not a dissenting opinion; it’s a concurring opinion.
From Wikipedia:
In law, a concurring opinion is a written opinion by one or more judges of a court which agrees with the decision made by the majority of the court, but states different reasons as the basis for his or her decision.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Looks to me like they're joining Paul,
so no.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
But is it a regular concurrence or a special concurrence?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
How can you account for the negative value of the spotty availability
It seems that despite the positive WAR, and good price for that, there is a negative value you are missing.
Duke had been counted on to fill a slot in the rotation. His absence required some scrambling to fill in the slots with whoever could be found. Tomko, and several other rookies I have already lost track of.
If the absence could have been planed for, that’s one thing. But scrambling for new arms …. not sure how to measure that.
Easy
You measure it by the A’s internal replacement level, viz the guy who comes in and starts in Duke’s place.
Conveniently, that happens to be the exact same pitcher who would have been pitching if you hadn’t offered Duke. The negative value of the spotty availability is essentially zero.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'm suggesting the negative value is actually negative!
If Beane knew Duke would be unavailable this year, different plans could have been made.
Hell, even knowing Duke would be not there could have saved cash of trying to bring in veterans to try for a lucky shot. If you know Duke’s not coming back, you would know those efforts would be futile.
Similar for Chavez – if you knew at the start of the year he would play zero innings, then you would aim for different folks in a trade / draft. Knowing allows choices, and the lack of knowledge has a cost.
Not really
When you’re dealing with injury-prone players, the correct move is to assume they aren’t there, build your team anyway, and treat anything you get out of them as a bonus.
If you think someone else is needed for the rotation, well, that’s probably true anyway, so sign the guy.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
You can just about reduce that, for all teams, to:
“If you think someone else is needed for the rotation, that’s probably true.” Never have too much starting pitching can you.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Because I know you'll hate this...
Assume the A’s internal replacement for having Duke accept arbitration and then have him turn in another 2009 (which I doubt will happen… that only happens to players on the Oakland payroll making over $10 million a year) is Trevor Cahill. And yes, by signing Duke we’ll assume that’s the A’s 1 semi-major FA purchase, the rest of the disposable cash is tagged for Arguelles.
I’m all for the move to offer arbitration as I believe we’ve seen enough smoke in the trade rumors to be all but certain that he’ll sign elsewhere. But while I’m going to rec your post I think you need to factor in MobiusKlein’s concern. Since you’re being all equationy and such.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The v of open-market free agents can be assumed to be zero
as I’ve defined it in that equation. Free agents tend over the long run to get paid what they’re worth, hence have a surplus value of zero.
There isn’t really an opportunity cost (in the economic sense) to not spending that money on the open market.
If the A’s were currently in the 88-92 win range I could see an argument for preferring a certainty of a 1-win upgrade to the speculative upgrade of a Duke, but in their current win range (80-ish) you’d rather have a lot of variance in your outcomes.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
But there is an economic opportunity lost
if Cahill is not in AAA to start the 2010 season because Duke has broken down (again).
Just the other day you said the A’s blew $18-20 million by having Cahill on the 2009 Opening Day roster. Getting a vet into the 2010 mix would send the weakest of the the A’s current SP crop (which you’ve argued repeatedly was Cahill) back to the minors, thus “buying” the A’s service time.
Duke hasn’t pitched a big league baseball game in a year and a half, he’s not the most reliable guy on the market, is the investment in Duke worth the risk associated when you factor in Duke’s performance expectations (which you’ve already done) AND what it could potentially mean for Cahill’s future with the A’s.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is sort of true and sort of not
If the A’s think that Cahill will improve by being sent to the minors, they should do so and replace him with a replacement-level starter (which isn’t hard to do— I’m sure Chad Reinecke is still available).
I guess there’s a weird edge case where Cahill is objectively the best #5 starter candidate (let’s say he’s a 0.5 WAR pitcher and Dana Eveland’s arm falls off) and the team can’t send him down without violating good faith, yet having a 1 WAR starter instead of Duke would allow them to ensure that he is sent down in good faith.
However, I would raise two points:
1. Teams routinely violate good faith when dealing with pre-arb players and get away scot-free; see Longoria, Wieters, Bruce, Braun, etc etc etc, and
2. The number of low-probability events required for this to happen (including Duke making so few starts that it does not result in Cahill going to AAA for 20 days) is such that introducing it into the equation would immensely complicate things without making it appreciably more accurate.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Your point #1 carries no weight with me.
If it becomes an issue of acting in good faith (which I agree it probably won’t), then the reason to act in good faith is because it’s the right thing to do, not whether you can get away with it or not.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Eh
I mean, cheating in baseball is rampant. Teams do it, and not just in dealing with player transactions… it’s not really different from intentionally grooming the basepaths to slow down opposing runners…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
just checking
Despite all of the debate, I think we all pretty much agree on the following points (tell me if I’m wrong):
- Duke almost certainly won’t accept arbitration
- It would be a decent gamble for the A’s to bring Duke back as a starting pitcher in 2010. This could happen in two ways: either he does accept arbitration (unlikely) or the A’s sign him as a free agent to a 1 or 2 year deal with low base cost and significant performance bonuses. It is unlikely that either of these options would represent a horrendous contract, even in the case where Duke is totally derailed by injuries and/or depression.
- Regardless of whether or not Duke will play for Oakland in 2010, the A’s would be well served by looking to acquire a back of the rotation starter. As long as the deal is short term, they could even afford to pay free agent market rates for one (i.e. Tomko at $3M for 1 year). There are surely options out there with more upside than Tomko, I’m just mentioning one name that gets tossed around a lot.
Ok, now I’m pretty sure that there won’t be total agreement with my points (I mean, this is pretty much a truism for any three bullet points posted on AN). My guess is that the second point might be the most disputed.
I'd agree with #s 1 and 2
I don’t think there’s really any use in bringing in a back-of-the-rotation free agent, at least not at a cost of actual dollars. The A’s have plenty of those guys (Mortensen, Simmons, etc etc).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
A draft pick would be nice, no doubt...
…so I guess the team does have to make the offer, but on the off-chance he does accept arbitration, I simply don’t believe he will contribute enough to justify his salary.
Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson
That's a different position though
If p and x have the right values, it is possible for the projected result of an acceptance of arbitration to be negative, yet have the value of making the offer be positive. Cameron talked about that situation just a few days ago (although he takes a few shortcuts, his basic point— to draw attention to the possibility of the situation you just outlined— is well taken).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Shouldn't p be EITHER 0 or 1
How can you say that the value of the comp pick is variable? Duke either accepts arbitration (p=1) or he doesn’t (p=0), and we don’t know who would we would use the pick on. We could get a steal and severely underpay the pick or get a bust and severely overpay. Or, we end up in the middle.
In either case, you can’t just conjugate two mostly unrelated terms because they both have a valuation attached.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 2, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
p is a probability
It’s clearly not either zero or one… and the reason the value of the comp pick is variable is that the odds of it coming into existence in the first place are variable.
What the A’s spend the pick on is kind of irrelevant. The average surplus value of getting a sandwich pick is about $2M. That’s good enough for this kind of assessment.
In either case, you can’t just conjugate two mostly unrelated terms because they both have a valuation attached.
I understand neither what this is referring to nor why it is supposedly the case.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Like when I see that there's a 60% chance of rain tomorrow,
there’s actually a 0% chance or a 100% chance. Don’t the weathermen know this?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
of course p is a probability
But calculating a pseudo-opportunity cost based on the probability of a yes-or-no question seems a little bogus. Again, it’s reducible to two outcomes, only one of which is going to change the major-league team significantly from last year. Moreover, when you have a guy coming off of depression, having injuries last year, having a great but flukey 2008, AND being converted from starter to reliever then back to a starter, it becomes harder to connect the dots on him.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 3, 2009 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
Ok, here's the problem
it’s choice theory. Duke’s probability of accepting arb may be irrelevant for the A’s choice.
there are 2 separate choices – do the A’s offer arb, and does Duke accept arb.
3 possible outcomes (since not offering arb moots Dukes choice.) No Arb, Arb declined, Arb accepted.
By Paul’s calculation, both Arb offered outcomes have a positive value, the p value is irrelevant for the A’s choice to offer. (note that Paul does not set a value for the No Arb choice – I’ll assume he set it as the baseline of a value of $0. ) Given those assumptions, A’s offer arb in a blink.
A more complex setup, with a variable value for Duke’s future performance, would make the ‘p’ matter. (and the value of the compensation pick may also be variable since it costs money to sign and pay players.)
maybe I'm a snot
but an “A’s caravan” w/ only Davis and Zeigler – god & I love ‘em both – is kinda sad. Stomper? If I had a small child, perhaps I’d check it out.
How about Zuke, Bailey, Swooney, Ellis, CUST?? I know these A’s have no true stars, but I still need a few more – ahem – players making an appearance to get motivated to go get an autograph and a picture.
Booze would be nice.
Stomper is amusing
At a game this summer, I watched him grab a kid’s Yankees hat off the kid’s head and rub it in his arm pit, then trying to eat it. My kid said, “Stomper’s drunk.”
Duke as a starter
The A’s have a strong bullpen. They don’t need Duke down there. For now they do need an experienced, capable starter, which we know Duke potentially can be. In negotiations I think it would be pretty easy for them to agree to use him exclusively as a starter.
And from Duke’s perspective, looking at the obvious strength of the A’s bullpen, he’d have to feel pretty comfortable with the idea that the A’s would live up to their promise and not change their minds during the season.
But I think Billy has to be convinced that Duke is ready to play again; he doesn’t have a lot of money with which to absorb risks.
chronic
I like Duke
But I don’t see him fitting into the A’s plans. Given his apparent fragility, he’s a risk in terms of setting either the SP or bullpen rotation, even if his salary was low and incentive laden. As a fan, I’d like to see him start and be successful for us, but I’m pretty sure he will sign elsewhere while we go with the young guys and perhaps Tomko as cuppingmaster suggested. But I wish him the best of luck wherever he lands, and will be rooting for him as a pitcher and as a person. I hope mental equilibrium reigns in his brain.
@worldblee on Twitter.
I'm all for offering Duke arbitration
But at this point I think it would be best if he signs elsewhere.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Arbitration broken?
I think the system needs to be completly reworked in the next cba. The new CBA kind of defeats the entire purpose of having Arbitration-the only thing left that it is there for is for Draft Picks. But the whole reason behind why teams would offer Arb in the first place has been removed, so if you are using it for Draft Picks, might as well apply it to all Free Agents in a way, or just redo the system completly.
Arbirtation was there so that teams could try to retain their players, and they had to offer arbitration in oreder to keep negotiating with them, or else they couldnt sign that player until May 1st. That has been removed.
Another was to make sure that a player couldn’t recieve a massive pay cut. The player couldnt get less than 80% the previous year, or 70% the year before that. This has been removed for Free Agents.
So why is Arbitration for Free Agents even still there?
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
I always thought it was
So that it gives teams compensation if and only if the team makes an effort to retain a player. Offering arb is a way to ensure this.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Which is also avoided
by the gentlemans agreements to either not offer arb (see Orlando Cabrera) or for the player to decline after arb is offered and seek free agency as planned.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Hm, maybe
Allowing contractual agreements to trump generally applicable laws has its costs, in baseball no less than elsewhere in society.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Unintended Consequences
My guess is that you’re going to see a change during the next contract negotiations. It turns out that being a Type-A free agent is very damaging to a player’s ability to get the best free agent contract out there because the value of a first-round pick has jumped sky-high (because veteran salaries have jumped so high that pre-arb players are now worth their weight in gold). I can’t imagine the players union arguing in favor of the current system.
True, but they'll have to make some kind of concession to get it removed
I’m hoping that concession is “enforceable slotting for draft picks,” but who knows, really.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
it doesn't seem that way
Maybe for someone on the edge of type A and B, but for the vast majority of type A free agents, they get good contracts because they have been classified as type A. Maybe it’s not THE best, but I think we’re talking about 90% of desired contract vs. 100%.
I don’t know, I think if I was a player I’d rather be the upper echelon free agent than the first-round pick. Players might be against this only because the first-rounder might make more money in the future than current free agents.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 3, 2009 7:01 AM PST up reply actions
Names that come to mind from last year....
Bobby Abreu, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson. I’d probably throw in Adam Dunn as well, who would probably have gotten a better contract if he’d not be a Type A free agent. Once the cream was sifted off the time (which would happen no matter what), Type Bs were often signed before the Type A’s.
There are more than a few relievers listed as Type A Free Agents this year. What team in its right mind would give up a first-round pick for a middle reliever?
Yeah, I think the teams offering arbitration to relievers this year
(with the exception of Atlanta, which just blew its first-round pick on a reliever…) are actually looking for the pitchers to accept the offers and stick around for another season. And I’d expect most of them to do so.
The players at other positions who might end up in the Orlando Hudson range didn’t get offers this year at all. Only five non-relievers were offered arb: Bay, Holliday, Figgins, Lackey and Scutaro.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Does Duchscherer count as a non-reliever?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Limiting it to Type As
Type B arbitration offers basically only affect the player and his original team. The effect on the player’s free agent value is de minimis (about the only situation I can see is if a player is offered arbitration, declines it, and then wants to sign an unimportant one-year deal with a division rival— in that case the downside of giving a free pick to his prior team MIGHT deter them very slightly).
Type As are the guys who have their market value severely punished for declining arbitration.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Uh, what?
I’ve never seen or heard of any GM saying “well, we didn’t realize how good this guy was, but then we saw the Elias rankings and, wow, Type A! We just had to get the guy at that point.”
The ranking system is a widely acknowledged joke right now. Even the old-school types realize how bizarre and capricious it is (why are Duchscherer and Adrian Beltre compensated at the same level?). No one makes decisions on the basis of what that formula spits out, except inasmuch as the formula impacts what it will cost to sign a player.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
of course not
I’m just saying that the top 15% or so are obviously type A and then after that it’s murky. I guess what I meant was they’re already good, and by definition, that makes them type A rather than “type A = awesomeness”
Clearly, based on some of the salaries given, the ranking system means nothing to GMs until you get to the compensatory pick process.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 3, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
Right, this actually makes sense
but it’s not what you said in your last post… which is that being named type A caused players to be paid more…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Holliday! Celebrate!
Yeah. All the time. I just had that convo with a mutual friend of ours.
I never considered taking him out. I had a commitment to his heart. - Johnny King
ME!
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
YOU!
You’re so cute!
I never considered taking him out. I had a commitment to his heart. - Johnny King
And, I get to see you tomorrow!
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. -Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
YOU'RE COMING TO DISNEYLAND?!?
Oh… see her
n/m
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
This seems like an appropriate time to post a pic from last year's Holiday Caravan...
Rajai and Ziggy probably won’t be quite as cute as those two, but really, who is?
Two things:
1) When is not appropriate to post that?
2) Is the cute brunette a friend of yours, and why are there basball players in front of her?
I'm here to talk about the past.
who will command more money?
Justin Duchscherer
Ben Sheets
Kelvim Escobar
They’re all in similar sorts of boats, though Escobar is one more year removed from playing than the other two. I love Duchscherer, but given his ailments didn’t involve his arm (like Sheets and Escobar) I’d say he’s probably due to get more money than those other guys, and Sheets is looking for at least 5-8 million, not sure how he thinks he’ll get it, though.
Escobar will only be pitching out of the bullpen,
So he’s likely the low man.
"She's kinda got cankles, our kids are gonna have to play soccer." ~ Mrs. "Disco" Hayes
by CaliforniaJag on Dec 3, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
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