Johnson > Matsui

(or rather it created the larger fanbase on top of the loyal core that was there for the losing teams) and they’ve been riding that ever since. But recent moves, I think, suggest a determination that that wave is finally wearing out and they can’t ride it any more.

From our point of view, Zduriencik is smart and Bavasi was incompetent, but that’s because we tend to see wins as the only goal worth keeping track of. From Nintendo’s point of view, I think they see winning seasons as one possible strategy for success and not the measure of it per se. But they’ve reached a point where they need some again, and that’s why they were ready to let go of Bavasi (who was not good at winning) and replace him with Zduriencik (who is).

You see it in other things, too. For many years, the Mariners put a lot of focus on maintaining the integrity of their brand. That’s why they tended to prefer big name players, were reluctant to let go of players who had solid name recognition, and ran away from troubled players who were hard to fold into their family-friendly story. That’s all changed now. The first two were apparent last year, and now with Milton Bradley they’ve clearly let go of the third as well.

Fans, especially analyst types outside of Seattle, tend to want to paint that as simply getting rid of a bad GM and finally getting a good one who doesn’t have such dumb priorities. But I don’t think it comes from the GM. I think it comes from the top, and Z is more the result of a change in strategy than the cause. I don’t think Occam’s razor supports the assumption that the Nintendo bosses were simply too blind to see what all of us had known for years, that Bavasi just wasn’t good at his job. Corporate bureaucracy may move slow, but it doesn’t move that slow. I think you have to assume that for whatever reason they were content with the team how it was running. When they reached the point where the team needed a new direction, Bavasi was let go and they went looking for a new GM whose skills were more along the lines of building a winning team, and by luck or by skill, they got one in Zduriencik. Of course, we tend to assume that whenever a club hires a GM they’re looking for one who will build a winning team, but again I don’t think that’s quite true. Sure, no one is against wins, but it’s not the only consideration for a GM, and depending on the club’s needs they might emphasize it more or less.

None of this is to take away from Z’s awesomeness. I have surely praised him here on AN far more than is seemly for an A’s fan. That said, I think he’s not quite what many imagine him to be. His success, and M’s fans’ glee at suddenly jumping from arguably the worst GM in baseball to arguably the best, has led to a lot of people projecting their own ideals onto Z.

For one thing, Z is very much an old-school guy. We forget this now, but he was the least sabermetrically inclined of the candidates. The “moneyball” types all wanted Chris Antonetti or maybe Tony LaCava. Like any smart leader, Z is open to whatever resources are available to him, so he doesn’t stupidly ignore stats, but his background and his manner are from the old scout network.

Z was one of the oldest candidates for the job but also the one with the weakest resume. If it were just about ass-covering and not looking foolish, it would have been much “safer” for the club to choose one of the many candidates who had had success as assistant GM. This suggests to me they really were looking for the guy who could best assemble a winning team.

Another thing often overlooked is that, like Beane, Zduriencik is a master schmoozer. I think that has been absolutely crucial to his success. Here on the blogs we sometimes act as if the measure of a GM is just to know that player A is better than player B, or that player C is worth $x million but not worth $y million, etc. But it’s not just about knowledge and evaluation. You still have to cultivate relationships with the other GMs and get the deals done. You still have to work with the agents and players and get the contracts signed. Personal and business skills matter, and Z has them.

I just thought that maybe those 3 players partcular contracts were somewhat an attempt to focus on a spending budget…

My bad!