Fox, Miles, Cassevah, Vaughan: An Inside Scouting Report
Now Media Relations director for the Fresno Grizzlies, Noah Frank was with the Chicago Cubs in 2008, then in the Texas League (with the San Antonio Missions) in 2009. As a result, Noah had a chance to become familiar with Jake Fox, Aaron Miles, Bobby Cassevah, and Beau Vaughan, recent A's acquisitions through trade and the Rule 5 drafts. Here is Noah's "up close" analysis of these newest additions to the A's puzzle...
Greetings, AN. I am a long-time A's fan, raised in the East Bay, and have been working in professional baseball the last several years. I know Nico from my time in Berkeley, and when I saw the recent flurry of player movement involving players that I have recently seen first-hand, I thought I might be able to contribute some insight and shed some light on the newest members of the Green and Gold.
Specifically, I worked for the Cubs in '08 and was in charge of compiling the Minor League Report, so I got a heavy dose of Jake Fox that year. In '09 I worked as a Media Director in the Texas League and saw both Bobby Cassevah and Beau Vaughan up close. I also got to hear what all the Big League scouts thought of them in the press box, so I feel like I have a pretty good handle on what they have to offer.
In 2008 Fox, after a slow start in Iowa and a demotion back to AA-Tennessee, came on strong and tore up the Southern League at ages 25/26. He really turned it on late, going .324/.383/.676 with 9 HR in July and .362/.465/.695 with 10 HR in August. While admittedly old for AA ball at that point, it seemed like he might have finally found his groove after under-achieving throughout his minor league career. Sure enough, he came out red hot in '09 with Iowa, going .409/.495/.841 with 17 bombs in just 45 games, earning his promotion to the bigs.
A classic late bloomer, my discussions with our baseball ops guys of which older Cubs' prospect would still have a productive career was always between Fox and Micah Hoffpauir. While I loved Hoffpauir (and still do), they always seemed to have a soft spot for Fox. While the power has always been there for Jake, the plate discipline has finally come along for the ride the last couple years. Fox's highest year-long OBP had been .357 in the Florida State League in '05 before his turnaround in '08 and '09.
Fox also offers the A's another interesting piece -- he is a right-handed power hitter who has consistently performed better against right-handed pitching, both for average and power, throughout his career. His ability to be at least serviceable defensively in the corner outfields as well as the corner infields should allow the A's to move him around and shape the rest of their lineups according to specific pitching matchups. All in all, I like the pick-up, although I'm unimpressed with Aaron Miles in almost every way, and wish the A's could have gotten a better second piece.
As for Cassevah and Vaughan, I saw them both a couple times last year in the Texas League. Cassevah was really impressive for much of the year, and was on quite a roll when he came to San Antonio as the proud owner of a 12.2 inning scoreless streak. However, he did not retire any of the six batters he faced that night, giving up four hits and walking two, watching all six runs score.
That led to a poor finish for Cassevah, as his control seemed to get away from him late in the year. It put a damper on what was, overall, a very nice year out of the 'pen. Prior to that game in SA, he carried a 2.11 ERA and a .216 BAA with better than a 3.8:1 GO/AO rate. The biggest question mark for the now 24-year-old will be his BB:K rate. If he can keep the walks down, he is a good enough control/ground ball pitcher to be effective in middle relief.
Vaughan bounced back-and-forth between Double-A and Triple-A, looking far more impressive in Frisco than he did in Oklahoma City. While he wasn't bad at the higher level, he was even more dominant than his basic numbers showed in the Texas League. In 18 appearances he was 3-0 with eight saves and a 2.35 ERA, limiting opponents to just a .198 BAA. He allowed only a single homerun and walked just three while fanning 20 over that span with a good mix of pitches.
While he's a pretty big guy (6'4" 230 when drafted, and he's added weight since), and he's certainly an old prospect at 28, Vaughan could be a nice piece of the bullpen puzzle for the A's. In addition, he brings a Swisher-esque personality that Oakland has been lacking since, well, the departure of Swisher. It will be nice to get a little more color back in the clubhouse.
I hope that gives you a little better feel of what to expect from the newest Oakland A's.
- Noah
P.S. After watching Midland dominate the TL this year (with and without Chris Carter), once all the hitting joins the young pitching I think it may be the A's year in 2011.
0 recs |
45 comments
|
Comments
Can Fox play 3B at all?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
He can physically stand there with a glove on.
But I mean, I could do the same.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
How poorly?
If he’s -8/150 or better, he’s probably their best option there. Well even if he’s a bit worse than that he’d be their best option arithmetically, but I wouldn’t be able to watch him without heart problems on all ground balls.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
After watching him...
…with the Cubs, he didn’t go out there and embarrass himself everyday. He could be serviceable, but I wouldn’t look to Foxy as a long term solution.
"With Chance on first, and Evers on third,
Great things from the Cubs will soon be heard."
Cassevah
Not a glowing report on him. The pick was not a great addition to me. Maybe the angels will not want him back and the A’s could hide him in AAA. I don’t see him making the cut at the majors.
If he isn't a prospect, then why bother with keeping him in AAA?
A’s have plenty of bulllpen prospects.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
Noah's comment on Miles supports
What I suspected – that taking him was probably the Cubs’ condition for the A’s to get Fox.
by OaklandSi on Dec 13, 2009 7:33 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Right, which makes the cost of Fox even more expensive
Gray+Morla+Spencer+$1.7 million+roster spot (Miles)=Fox
by faninphilly on Dec 13, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
Well they can cut Miles whenever they want so that roster spot is still available if they
need it.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
I think that without Miles the Cubs would have demanded
more valuable players than the three they got.
+1
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
I dont think Beane will lose sleep over this
Gray is 28, he wouldve likely been headed back to AAA for reliever depth. A’s just got Cassevah and signed Hernandez, have demel, meloan, hrod, carignan (if healthy), marshall, blevins, kilby as other reliever options.
Morla hasnt pithed in a full season league and will be rule 5 eligible next yr.
I didnt like giving up spencer, but OF/1b is a loaded position.
by MagicMike23 on Dec 13, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
I have a feeling the Gray Fox trade will be forgotten soon enough.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions
I dunno, it could go on for Miles.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Who knows, in a silent way, this could be the birth of the cool, new A's
by Ray of Lite on Dec 14, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
hey' this team could easily have Miles, Davis in the lineup
and maybe Coleman coming up?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
As long as they don't trade for LaTroy
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 14, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
you wouldn't be jazzed?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
It wasn't that bad of a joke...
It had a decent beat, and the horn parts were nice…
I give it a 76, Dick! (Clark)
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
I put the Clark in there,
because one time someone thought I called them a dick and started a flame war…
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
that and anyone under 25 probably never saw American Bandstand
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
you mean quickly
as that trade jumped the lazy dog?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
If he can jump over a dog,
Fox has to be agile enough to play third, right?
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
Can he jump a shark?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy!
mm__ mm__ (sideways two thumbs up)
by LoneStranger on Dec 14, 2009 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
But he has more power from the left side
Fox also offers the A’s another interesting piece — he is a right-handed power hitter who has consistently performed better against right-handed pitching, both for average and power, throughout his career.
* emphasis mine
No, actually he hasn’t. His Minor League lines are:
vs. LHP .316/.369/.552/.921
vs. RHP .291/.363/.543/.906
over 1,839 AB
In 2009 he was better against RHP, but it is based on only 160 AB pretty much out of this world anyway.
Have a glove you could spare for a good cause? If so please let me know
Some more details about his splits vs LHP/RHP
He does have better ISO versus right-handers (.253 vs .236)
He has waaay higher BABIP* versus left-handers (.348 vs .309)
He does have somewhat better strike zone control (K/BB of 2.35 vs. 2.48) and somewhat less infield pop-ups (11.7% of fly balls vs. 13.4%) versus left-handers.
It seems he is swinging more out of his heels when facing right-handers (proportionally more home-runs, more strikeouts, more pop-ups) and has somewhat more leveled approach against left-handers.
*Has anyone noticed that minorleaguesplits.com uses “wrong” BABIP formula? “Different” is probably a better word. So far I have mostly seen the (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF) one being used.
minorleaguesplits.com uses (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K), removing sacrifice flies from the equation. The difference is not a big one (especially for, say, Kendall?), as it increases BABIP by some .005 to .010
Have a glove you could spare for a good cause? If so please let me know
It's also important to keep in mind that we still have to regress observed platoon splits toward the mean substantially
That amount of PA in the majors would be adulterated by about (sorry, don’t have time to look this up in The Book right this second, going from memory) twice as many PA’s worth of a league-average platoon split. So his actual estimated difference from league average would be only 1/3 as large as the observed split.
Even if he was in fact better against RHP so far in his career, he’d have to have some kind of comically insane split (like 100-150 OPS points higher against RHP) for it to be more likely than not that his true talent is better against lefties than righties.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Speaking of which, are you convinced by
Ronny Cedeño’s reverse platoon split yet? I know people used to say it’s a small sample size and he’ll regress, but he’s maintained it for five years now. At what point do you say it’s for real?
Here’s his OPS differentials (RH-vs-RHP – RH-vs-LHP):
2009: 061 (in 376 PA)
2008: 097 (in 236 PA)
2007: 441 (in 80 PA)
2006: 080 (in 572 PA)
2005: 232 (in 89 PA)
2007 and 2005 are clearly flukish, with small sample size, but the fact that he’s consistently posted the milder split year after year makes me think it’s for real.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
The Book says that righties require around 2,000 PAs against LHP for statistical significance.
Anything less than that, and you’re better off assuming he’s even.
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
Sorry
It was actually pretty rude to write this before first thanking you for your willingness to share your knowledge about these three players with us.
Thanks.
Have a glove you could spare for a good cause? If so please let me know
Great info, thanks
I wrote a post in the Cust mega-thread about Fox’s reverse platoon split, but only because I had no idea where to find minor league splits. Who knew it’d be at minorleaguesplits.com? I’m retarded.
"[Sabean] said Kevin Pucetas maintains some value on the trade market, which they take as a positive sign that he’d be a productive option."
by Player To Be Named Later on Dec 14, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
Miles will have bigger boobies than Crosby?
Well, at least he’s juicing. Too bad the juice doesn’t help plate discipline.
"Sniff some krazy glue, and start a religion!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Dec 14, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
Awesome, thanks for the scouting reports, Noah.
Definitely good stuff to know.
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
Wait. We got Vaughan and Cassaveh, but the latter is the Wild Thing?
Will Vaughan at least get to wear #99? 
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
Crazy thing is, Hannahan is clearly better than any of the others.
with the exception of maybe Petit.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Thanks Noah
:-)
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality-
Fox's age
It looks like he didn’t reach AA until his 4th year in pro ball, at which point his age became a mark against him. That despite the fact that he didn’t OPS under .800 once after the first half of 2003, his age 20 season. I wonder why the slow promotion early in his career? Does bad defensive slow a guy down in the lower minors?





























