Ongoing Debate: The "Hidden" Value Of Veterans?
by Nico on Dec 12, 2009 9:22 AM PST
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PrintWhat better way to start off the weekend than to discuss a topic where two sides inevitably can't agree, won't change their minds no matter what is said, but will become heated to the point of speaking sharply with a tone that artfully blends agitation and petulance? Tomorrow's post: "Pro Choice Or Pro Life: Come On, You Know You Want To Change Your Opinion."
The debate begins when a team signs a Russ Springer (one example of "a Russ Springer" would be Russ Springer) or trades for a Kevin Millwood, and includes their "veteranness" as part of the perceived value they will bring to the team. The Millwood trade, and Baltimore's comments about the importance of bringing a "veteran presence" to the pitching staff, sparked the 912th debate on AN as to whether the "mental side" of the game has any actual impact on performance on a statistical or real level. Or is it just the usual psychobabble musings of a group too lazy or too into "vegan chi in yoga sauce" to realize that your ability to locate a fastball is more important than your ability to find a good pre-game warmup routine?
My thesis today (and it's my thesis that it is, and it's mine, and it's smaller in the beginning, then much much bigger in the middle, then smaller again at the far end, and it's mine) is that the value guys like Springer and Millwood (and Justice and Gant and Karros and Giambi) bring to a team is not all that "intangible" -- it comes in the form of teaching far more than it comes in the form of "presence and osmosis."
We know that pitching coaches, infield/outfield coaches, bullpen coaches, and roving instructors, all exist in order to teach, instruct, and mentor players. But baseball involves a lot of "peer teaching" too, and sometimes the teachers who are best equipped to help a young player understand how to grip a cutter, or handle an inning that is getting out of hand, or use batting practice well when they're in a slump, or read the movement of a pitch in order to get a quick first step on defense, is an active player who has "been there" and is even still "there" -- but who has, as part of their toolbag, the best teacher of all: Experience.
Some of the help Millwood offers the Orioles may be abstract and of arguable reality: "I watch the way he carries himself after a bad outing and I learn so much." But much of the help veteran players offer is concrete, in the form of conversations in the dugout or bullpen, or on the field during batting practice, about hitting, fielding, pitching, about late movement on pitches or a trick for blocking the plate, about how to get your hands to be quicker through the strike zone or how to use your lower body to add and subtract on your fastball.
These sound like the kinds of conversations and impromptu tutorials coaches should be having, but a lot of coaching comes from veteran peers. It's the nature of major league baseball and smart GMs know it. Billy Beane has brought veterans in to provide "more than just their physical skills" nearly every year for 10 years, and he does it for a reason. And it's not even that abstract or intangible -- it's just the nature of how a lot of teaching is passed on in major league baseball.
And just about everywhere else, too. I've learned some over the years by being taught, and I've learned a ton over the years by watching, and listening, while around colleagues whom I admired and respected. Why should baseball be any different?
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Barry Bonds?!
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 12, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
Another Coach
I don’t think this is a yes or no question. An older veteran could serve as a de facto pitching, hitting or fielding coach, or not. I think the person plays into the decision, and some mediocre older players (think Jason Kendall or Brad Ausmus) get two-year deals as much on the basis of their teaching skills as their (declining) playing skills.
assuming they want to teach
when Suzuki came up Kendall was quoted by one writer as saying that he wasn’t interested in teaching but in playing. While Suzuki talks about how much he learned from Kendall, when pressed for specifics he mentions Kendall’s advice to always want to play and never take yourself out of the game no matter what.
I wonder if Kendall is more open to teaching now, since the Royals have mentioned that they want him to mentor their up and coming catchers.
Once again, he said “I want to win” after signing with the Royals. That’s what he said repeatedly in 2005 Fan Fest at the Coliseum. Of course, then it made sense as he had been traded to a team that had been to the playoffs from 2000-2003 and had contended in 1999 and 2004.
I suspect he signed with Kansas City for the money, the years, and the expectation that he would get lots of playing time. Or does he believe they will contend during the next two years?
If he thinks the Royals are about to contend,
he probably needs Suzuki to mentor him in how to bounce back from severe brain damage. All those collisions at home plate may have taken their toll.
See my comment about Penny, below, regarding your main point — yes, you want to pick your veterans carefully.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Anyone ever looked at catchers who make it to age 35?
Their production seems to more often than not, fall off a cliff after 35. Its strange, alomst like clockwork. The fact that a team was dumb enough to lock down a 37 year old Kendall, who would have easily been available after this year, is more of Dayton Moore trying to sink his own franchise than on Jason.
Lets be real here, Kendall is the worst hitter in baseball and wont produce a positive WAR number either, it hurts KC by signing him.
And Pudge Rodriquez signs for two years
with the Nationals, at age 38.
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
I think he really really does want to win
But the reason he signed with KC is that they offered him a nice job with way more money than he had any right to expect based on his currently established level of performance.
Great Post
I coached baseball at the high school level and am currently a classroom teacher. One thing I can say is ‘peer-teaching’ is one of the most undervalued team strengths (vs. weaknesses) that can’t be quantified but most certainly is omnipresent on a successful team or in a successful classroom.
Throughout the beginning of the season and up until Giambi got traded, his teammates constantly sang the praises of what his veteran presence brought to the clubhouse. You can imagine that some of the young guys on the team will carry what they learned from him for the rest of their baseball career.
Overall, having veterans that can share their experiences with a younger team can definitely help a team. My only issue with Beane is his choice of veterans—they one factor that allows him to sign these veterans is they are injury prone and other teams don’t want to take that risk. Even if they find another Frank Thomas, he had several stints on the DL during his A’s tenure.
Perhaps, a good point of discussion would be how much DL time Billy Beane’s signings accrue over their tenure as an “A”
Byron
Thanks --
On the flip side, I think of Brad Penny, who on the face of it would have been a great player to bring in as a veteran rotation anchor who fits the #2-#3 starter role where the A’s could use a veteran arm. But Penny has a reputation for not taking an interest in younger players and not being valuable in that way — I imagine the A’s never considered him, because while he might have put up useful stats he would not have fulfilled the “veteran player / teacher” role even though he has the experience/widsom to offer.
I’m sure Beane would sooner have Springer putting up mediocre stats and helping peer-teach young pitchers than bring in a pitcher who could get more outs but who wouldn’t help Braden, Anderson, Cahill, Mazzaro, and Gio grow at all as pitchers.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
fwiw, in an interview thursday night Matt Cain said some very complimentary
and pretty specific things about Penny’s willingness to help the younger pitchers, during his time in SF
Dear Matt Cain,
Please stop interfering with my preconceived notions. Thank you for your cooperation.
-Me.
Seriously, though, I have read negative stuff about Penny specifically in regards to “willingness to help younger pitchers,” but maybe he has evolved, or maybe what I’ve read is BS.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I've read the negative things also
I think that’s one of the reasons Cain was asked about Penny. in fact, Cain acknowledged the negative stories from the past, but went out of his way to comment positively on Penny’s time with the Giants as far as helping the younger pitchers.
How much of that is true
and how much of that is the unwritten rule that players generally don’t talk shit about each other to the media?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I think that rule applies when the players are still on the same team
quite a few talk shit publicly once they’re no longer teammates.
The reason I thought Cain’s remarks were sincere was that he gave specifics, and referred to Penny’s negative reputation (based on shit aired publicly by former teammates in the past) – that, plus the fact that they aren’t teammates anymore, so he could have just shined off the question or ahswered in vague terms if he just wanted to be diplomatic.
further thinking
In the past, Penny might have been approached by teammates he had already assessed as “dip-wads”, for whatever reasons stuff goes through Penny’s (or any person’s head). Then, on the Giants, he gets into a conversation with Matt Cain, and for whatever reason (same size, same attitude about life, dislike same “dip-wads” on their own team) they reach a rapport. And, with the next conversation, mutually enjoyed, Cain ends it with an “Oh by the way, how do you pitch to a guy who just took you deep the previous AB?” And the conversation (and advice) still flows.
That IMO is how stuff like this sometimes flows.
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Jack Cust will never bunt again
Jason Giambi, feh.
speaking of Cust
These might be his last 9 hours as an Athletic and honestly, that makes me quite sad.
We should bring in a veteran
To set the lineup so Geren can handle other things like, I don’t know, patching holes in the dugout and sweeping up in the office and so on.
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Dec 12, 2009 10:16 AM PST reply actions
That may be the only way Geren can hope to manage a sweep.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
bah-dum tiss
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
Isn't there also an argument that having veterans on the team
gets in the way of young guys’ development? That as long as guys like Giambi are around they feel like they can lean on him, and then when he’s gone they step up and reach a new level of responsibility?
I’m not saying I necessarily believe that, but it seems like the sort of intuitive and anecdotal evidence that’s being assembled in favor of veterans can also be assembled against them.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Fair question
I think the potential is there for that to happen in a given scenario. However, I would think that there is a longer time frame when the young guys simply aren’t ready to “step up” and take their game to the next level. There are definitely rookies who can come in on Day 1 and be “the guy” (Tim Hudson struck me as one of those rookies) but most young players need time to get used to being in the Show before they fully blossom. For those players a veteran crutch can be an asset.
Timing is key. And the production from the veteran is also a key factor. Giambi may have been in the way in 2009. But no one was thinking that in 2001.
The monster at the end of this blog.
ANY psychological argument can be spun in such a way that it appears to be either a positive or a negative
and since it’s all speculation devoid of hard evidence, it ends up being a complete waste of time.
It’s the baseball equivalent of asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
While some of us enjoy speculating about those positives and negatives...
…you just sit there and perform the equivalent of plugging your ears with your fingers going “La la la I am not listening to you.”
That’s your right, of course, but it’s pretty silly to simply dismiss the whole thing as irrelevant and pointless.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Other things that are apparently "silly to dismiss as irrelevant and pointless" by this logic:
The impact of New Guinea lowlands culture on baseball
The impact of the Uruguayan soccer table on baseball
The impact of Helicobacter pylori on baseball
I mean, sure they have no proven impact on the game, but can’t we speculate about their importance?
Why do you hate helicobacter pylori so, Flashfire? Why don’t you recognize what a critical part of the game it is?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Faulty logic
Teams and GMs have stated publicly, on the record, that they bring in older players as a “veteran presence,” and all that might, or might not imply. They don’t mention New Guinea lowlands culture, or the Uruguayan soccer table, or the impact of Helicobacter pylori (well, okay, there are times when they might, in which case it becomes fair game).
But in this case, we’re talking about millions of dollars and roster spots that could go to other players. It’s part of the baseball conversation, whether something clear emerges from said discussion or not.
Oh, I'm pretty sure he's just lumping those things in with "veteran presence" or whatever you want to call it...
…as all having about the same effect on a player’s mental makeup and so on.
That’s basically why I went with the “whatever” response.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The effect of Helicobacter pylori on baseball?
No one can claim that it is the stress of managing or playing “Major League Baseball” that is causing their stomach ulcers.
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
See? It's totally relevant.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
I can attest that H. Pylori
impacted my baseball viewing this past season. I
alaska A residing in northern Idaho.
If you don't like speculation devoid of hard evidence, well...
Ask your doctor if blogging is right for you!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What are the side effects of blogging, DR.?
Hopefully blindess and rectal bleeding are not among them……
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
No, that's not why you're suffering from those two conditions
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Dammit! Oh well, back to taking my sugar tablets....
;0’
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
See, this is where your blindness comes in
You accidentally reached for the rat poison tablets; hence the other problem.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh no....I love my rats!
There very sweet, Nico. I think it’s because I accidentally ate the cheese…
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
No, that's the moon.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Unless you give me hard, statistical analysis
to support your argument……
“I Can’t Hear You!!!!!”
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
call your doctor if your blogging episode
does not subside after four hours.
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
By the way...
…with Chone Figgins no longer in Anaheim, the number of Angels that can dance on the head of a pin is probably a bit less. Dude’s not very big, you know.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Well, This team sure as hell played loads better-
Once the ‘Vets’ were gone, be it psychological and or how the game was being planned- it was quite a change.
Why should baseball be any different?
Because the things that you have taught and learned are not games requiring infinitesimal reaction times far below the threshold of conscious deliberation and unbelievable amounts of muscle memory. Baseball is sui generis.
There is no way to “think” yourself into becoming a good baseball player. It. Cannot. Happen.
I can see getting a “teacher” if you want someone to literally teach your pitchers a pitch. Get Tim Hudson to teach people how to throw a good sinker or something. The grip on a baseball is something that you can talk about and think about before it happens, even at gametime.
There’s very little else in baseball that is, though. Reading the flight paths of flyballs is one where there’s enough time to think, but that process is also more or less a sub-rational one involving lots of intuitive physics and heuristics that would just confuse us if they were actually salient to the conscious mind. The rest (hitting, fielding grounders, controlling pitch locations, running the bases)? Well, not really. There are certain techniques that guys learn in high school (how to point the glove when fielding a grounder, eg), and past that it’s pretty much innate talent and practice showing. The whole goal is to make it so that you don’t have to think about that stuff. If you’re wasting time thinking about it, your reaction time is slower and you will suck.
Basically, by the nature of baseball, most skills are not skills unless they can be pounded so far into someone’s head that they don’t even have to think about what they’re doing anymore. The instant you start deliberating over what to do, you’re toast. It’s a very minimally “teachable” game.
Rule out that angle and you’re back to these vapid arguments about “presence” and “taking the pressure off” etc etc etc. None of which can be shown, or even intuited, to have a positive effect on players’ performance.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
by PaulThomas on Dec 12, 2009 11:15 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
on the Russ Springer topic
actually, some guys apparently said Springer helped them throw a cutter.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Why Russ Springer?
Why when they were on a major league staff?
Where were the coaches? Why didn’t they teach the cutter?
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
I have no idea.
Oh. Yeah. It was Dallas Braden.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Yeah, like I said, I think teaching pitches is a valuable exercise
although, wasn’t Curt Young one of the early cutter guys too?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
and teachig pitchers pitches? its like his job or something
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
Huh?
Obviously, innate ability has to be there. But the skill set of a veteran player, usually, is superior to that of a younger player. That means the veteran player has learned something, whether by himself or via teaching - and has learned it to such a degree that it becomes unconscious.
I think this is true of every skill-set. There’s ability and talent, but it only comes to the fore when it’s been so refined and honed that the tasks can be accomplished without thought. That holds true for everything from baseball to writing to lawyering to singing.
Exactly. If you think baseball players don't make adjustments,
that involve learning new things, all the time, you’re just wrong. Your already developed muscle memory, your innate ability, and existing skill set may enable you to learn new things more seamlessly than I could. But players who don’t constantly adjust, learn, and adapt are in trouble at the big league level. Crosby is actually a pretty good example.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OK
I don’t see what this has to do with “teaching.” This is basically a form of rapid-fire intuitive game theory. Some guys are good at it. Some, like Crosby, aren’t.
The way to become better at rapid-fire intuitive game theory, to the extent that there is one, is just to do it a lot. (Also known as “practice.”)
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
You're leaving out three HUGE variables
The first concerns the other teams getting to know the player, and responding to holes in the swing, single field hiting, etc. Each adjustment requires a counter-adjustment by the player. That’s something that’s learned, either intuitively by the player, or through the advice and coaching of others.
The second concerns aging. As a body ages, the player must adjust to that process. Again, that adjustment is something that’s learned, either intuitively or through advice and coaching.
The third concerns injury. How does a player adjust to certain parts of his body not working the way they did before the injury. What’s the best way to cope, from preparation to in-game action? If I have Tommy John surgery and I was coming back, it would be a lot easier if another player on the team had gone through the same process and come out of it successfully, to show me the ropes.
Whether to protect a hole in one's swing or go after a pitch in a sweet spot
is exactly the kind of rapid-fire intuitive game theory that I’m talking about. Believe me when I say that I have attempted to get better at that myself a LOT, for the purposes of becoming a better player of other types of games (eg poker is full of that kind of thing). It is (and I don’t think I speak only for myself here) frickin’ impossible to learn in an intellectual or standoff manner.
The other stuff strikes me as not obviously helpful, if helpful at all. People’s bodies are different. To the extent that anyone is good at understanding the aging process, I don’t think old/hurt ballplayers are that “anyone”…
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
"eg poker is full of that kind of thing"
The one game everyone can play and that you “can” learn from by watching/observation, but where nothing beats lots of practice. Still, your game must evolve for you to be successful at it over a period of time. Otherwise, you..will….bust….!
I’m playing at a groomsmen party this afternoon so
ll let ya know how I do. :)
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Congratulations
You’ve just completely negated the entire concept of imprinting as it pertains to all adults, purely on the basis of your own few experiences.
by richwol1 on Dec 14, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Is it not reasonable to think these sub-rational instincts
act better when the player is in a certain frame of mind? Perhaps others can help them get into that state of mind, or help to negotiate the new distractions that might throw them out of it.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Cool
The rest of us can talk about it.
You can ignore it if you think it’s so worthless a discussion.
Baseball players (and by extension, athletes and people in general) are not robots, but you seem to continually try to tell us they essentially are.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 12, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Reread the title of the thread.
It’s not a “debate” if only one side is allowed to speak. I know you’d love to squash dissent on this issue, but last time I checked, holding a contrarian viewpoint wasn’t a CGV except at Bruins Nation.
Nestor, is that you?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
It's also not a debate if your position is "This is stupid. There's no point in talking about this."
Last of the Ninth - Photography
The fucking THREAD TOPIC is "is there a point in talking about this?"
Obviously we’re only allowed to answer “yes”, but…
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Paul, I know you have trouble with things you can't quantify with stats and figures
But you’ve been acting like this whole discussion is beneath you ever since it came up in the other day’s thread. You do it every single time something like this comes up where the best people can do is speculate about it.
You believe baseball players can only get better through practice and there’s no real difference between high-stress situations and normal ones when it comes to how they perform. That’s fine, but calling debates like this “vapid” says enough about how you view them that I have no problem suggesting you leave them to the rest of us to talk about if they bother you so much.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I've explained why I feel the way I do about the teachability of baseball
You choose to respond (repeatedly, I might add) by replying to every post of mine on this topic with the equivalent of “Cool story, Hansel!” posts.
Kinda speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Do that again and I’m flagging it.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Flag it all you want
I really don’t care if you don’t like the fact I’m calling your position on this into question.
Either do it or don’t.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'll flag it.
Your comments in this thread have been everything you’re trying to push off on PaulThomas.The fact that you try and belittle Paul for using facts in place of pure speculation and subjective evaluation is a joke. No wonder I don’t visit this place on Staturdays anymore.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
Awesome
God forbid people actually want to talk about something that can only really involve speculation.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
What part of my comment said you can't discuss this?
By all means, discuss what we would use the moon for if it were made of cheese. My comment was pointing out how you’re being just as radical and intolerable as you accuse of PT.
Now, go ahead and accuse me of being a close-minded stathead who thinks all players are robots so I can take AN off my Google Reader feed.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 12, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
LOL
Okay, if you insist.
You’re a close-minded stathead who thinks all players are robots. You may now take AN off your Google Reader feed because of me.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Well, of course, getting you to do that
is precisely the purpose of his antics on this thread… can’t make an omelette without breaking eggheads, amirite?
Apparently fact-based reasoning “intimidates” the posters who really just yearn to express their deep-seated intuitive love for old-timey baseball "larnin’ ", or something.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
You don't visit AN on Staturdays?
Are you also boycotting Halley’s comet?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I would love to see some evidence for this claim:
There are certain techniques that guys learn in high school (how to point the glove when fielding a grounder, eg), and past that it’s pretty much innate talent and practice showing.
It seems like a lot hangs on it being true, but I have a hard time thinking it is. PT claims that baseball is sui generis, but for something to be one-of-a-kind doesn’t mean that it doesn’t bear relevant or analogous relations to other activites. In this case, there must be both physical and cognitive experiences of learning that have relevance to how baseball skills can be maximized.
Note that I am avoiding, or so I think, any commitment to etherealities (nice word, eh?) such as “good attitude,” “breaking out of bad streaks,” or “taking pressure off.” There should nonetheless be in principle measurable outcomes from post-high school baseball education. Whether these are “in practice” measurable is another question. It could turn out that if they are not thusly measurable, there might still be good reason to risk (e.g. spend money) including vets at an over-market price on a roster.
When 30 guys spend every hour of every day together for eight months
it’s absurd to contend that their individual experiences and personalities don’t have an effect on one another. I can’t think of a sustained group activity I’ve ever been part of where my levels of insight, learning, attitude and therefore, sometimes, performance have not been influenced by the social and psychological interplay of my close peers.
The problem, of course, is that the effects are neither measurable nor predictable, so adding a “veteran” to my peer mix may help or hurt or have no effect at all, so it’s impossible to gauge the effect when choosing which new guy to bring on board.
Everybody's got a little light under the sun.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 12, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think it's impossible "to gauge"
If you’re saying there are no numbers, that would be correct.
But if you simply measure “number of episodes” like the old Athletics of 2000-2003, who played with RC cars in the clubhouse, Tejada holding court and putting everyone in stitches, you have to say that players could sum up a year and say, “I did well, because the clubhouse was fun.” That gauges it.
Contrast that with the story by Joe DeMaestri (from Napa, local angle). He got traded to the Yankees, and in ST he was told by several veteran Yankees, “Don’t f*ck up, we are the best team, the champions, and we expect a championship every year. Do your part, and don’t screw it up.”
Can you “gauge it”?? No but that doesn’t mean it’s not ‘tangible’.
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, absolutely
I’m not saying the effect is per se zero, I’m saying it might as well be assumed to be zero because it’s just random variation in no particular direction. Sometimes personalities click or clash. On top of that, sometimes players feeling chill makes them play better and sometimes it makes them play worse.
Milton Bradley only seems to play well when he’s really pissed off at something, or everything. But will that continue in the future? Maybe he’ll mellow out or something. I don’t know. Anyone who pretends to know that is full of it.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Why do teams bring in veterans?
- they’ve been there, done that. They have the experience even if they’re not what they once were in terms of skill.
- with that experience, they can help show some of the younger, less experienced players the ropes: what to watch for, what to be careful of on and off the field, how to carry themselves and so on. It’s not all just about how they perform when they’re in the game.
- leadership, someone those younger players can look to for how to play, to show them how to deal with the rough spots just as much as the good ones and keep an even keel. This ties into the last point. It’s more likely a player will listen to another player telling them some of these things than a manager or coach because even if the coach is a former player, the current one is a little more connected to today’s players and culture.
Most of this is speculation on my part but I believe there’s a basis for it. Disagree? Good for you!
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Dec 12, 2009 11:52 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I could see bringing in veterans for non-baseball reasons...
i.e. to try to show people how not to blow all their money in one place, or as “bailiffs” to keep an eye on guys so that they’re less likely to end up out drunk at 4 AM the night before a crucial late-season game (hi, Miguel Cabrera!)… those are clearly teachable…
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
A lot of it is just basic common sense
Which, as we see over and over again, many athletes lack.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I agree with this observation
(but with the semantic quibble that I wouldn’t call that “non-baseball”).
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Miguel Cabrera is a veteran
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
Much of this kind of teaching occurs spontaneously, doesn't it?
My thesis today (and it’s my thesis that it is, and it’s mine, and it’s smaller in the beginning, then much much bigger in the middle, then smaller again at the far end, and it’s mine) is that the value guys like Springer and Millwood (and Justice and Gant and Karros and Giambi) bring to a team is not all that “intangible” — it comes in the form of teaching far more than it comes in the form of “presence and osmosis.”
Teachable moments kind of emerge (osmosis?) from gametime situations and scenarios, right? And, this requires the player-coach to be present (presence), does it not?
Yes. In my last sentence, I mean
it doesn’t come in the form of just “absorbing their Gantness and their Karrosity,” but rather in the form of actual conversations and suggestions.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Many a time, fo' shizzle.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not only that...
He was too good looking to have real “grit”!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Brendan Ryan, is that you?
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 12, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
There is some value in having vets
From working in labs, I can tell you that the protocol on the page is not usually the best way to do it. I learned the “best” way from working with post-docs and techs who have done the protocol many, many times before. Without them, I would have banged my head against the wall — well, more than I already did.
I think what PT and others get confused about is the ability to quantify and place a concrete value on this stuff. It is true — you can’t add WAR or come up with a FIP adjustment to account for a teacher’s presence. However, this doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
You can’t help but pick up things from some grizzled vets and learn, provided they were adept at what they teach. BUT I’m not sure if personnel decisions should be made on this. I’m betting that BB acquired these older guys because they were still relatively good and cheap, not because they could teach someone how to play. I hope it stays that way and he never picks up an aging vet who can’t play to teach.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
What it all comes down to is pretty simple
Not everything can be measured with a hard and fast statistic.
I don’t think people are really arguing that veterans make people able to react better so they can hit a baseball better. If you don’t have it to begin with, you’re not really going to get it.
The point is the people who have been there and done that can help a younger player’s mental makeup so they handle everything that happens to them and around them better.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
To add to that, though
It’s entirely likely some of the better hitters can and do show others how to hit better by teaching them little things to look for. Some of this is through basic scouting anyway, but it’d be silly to think someone like Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs couldn’t show a decent hitter a few tips that helps them get a little better with what they already have, skill-wise.
Same thing with routes on fly balls. It has to be learned at some point and positioning and speed factor in a lot, but there are still things you can learn from seeing someone better than you actually do it and repeating it. It’s just an extension of what’s taught early on.
Just because someone makes it to the Majors doesn’t mean they’ve learned all they’re capable of already, especially in today’s game where a lot of kids are rushed through the minors.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Heck even I became a better CFer after watching Mark Kotsay in 2004-05!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It also rated my physique as subpar,
but it was a small sample.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Is that the Nazi invasion of Soviet Russia?
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
In addition...
Players’ bodies age and change, and injuries change how players will react. A veteran presence who has gone through the same issues can pass advice along on how best to cope with those kinds of changes. I think this happens all the time. We often hear of players from one team hearing advice from a player on an opposing team who might have gone through the same surgery, or who has a similar set of skills and has had to make adjustments to age.
What PT seems to be asserting is that players, once they reach the majors, are never coachable. Which is a very odd thing to say.
Idon't disagree that players are still coachable
It seems a “coach” could do that and not a $4M corpse taking up a roster spot.
"The ego, the super-ego, and the Ed" - danmerqury
I would agree about the corpse
But I think the idea is that the veteran player will reinforce the coach, and that the young player will be more likely to listen to the in-game advice of the veteran, etc.
I’m not sure if that’s the case. And obviously paying an over-the-hill player who can’t function any more just to be a “veteran presence” is absurd. But is it absurd to bring in a back-up catcher, or middle reliever, or fourth outfielder who still has something left, as opposed to another AAA who may not get sufficient playing time, in order to lend that presence? That, I think is the question.
All of the vegans I know are vegans because of solid scientific evidence in its favor
and not hippy drippy ill defined psychobabble.
Regarding veterans, though; if they have a positive role, it’s not so much in teaching the young players to be better at throwing or hitting a baseball, but I see it more surrounding the other part of the game; If you’ve been playing for a while, you probably have a fair idea of what practices are good for you as an athelete, and, as for some reason mlb clubs seem fairly unwilling to impose stringent fitness routines on players, passing this on, or leading by example I’d think could be a good thing. Obviously, there’s a chance that a more experienced player might set a bad example, too.
Further to this, they are more likely to have experienced downturns in their careers, too, such as injuries, or slumps, and helping younger players through this can only be a good thing, right?
A little bit like when your younger brother has a hangover for the first time – you can’t teach how to be better at getting over it, but you can make him realise that he’s not actually going to die. So long as the blood stops, of course. Which it ususally does.
Eh, that was quite waffley.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
that was a lot less waffley, thanks
I guess the question is, is it worth paying a player to do this, rather than a coach? Is there something that players can only learn from other players (analagous to a sibling bond), rather than from coaches (more of a parently relationship?).
I cannot answer that question.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
also, I'm going to pretend that parently is a real word.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
My answer to this, which is essentially my main point in this post,
is that inherently a lot of the teaching will/must come from peers, not from coaches. There’s no way around it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah... I think the argument comes down to whether it's
‘baseball skills’, or ‘being a highly paid athlete and trying to maximism a career through best practices skills’.
The first, as has been suggested above, isn’t really something that you’re going to pick up off other players. You either have them or not. The second part, some will presumably need more help than others. Would it help teams if they put more emphasis on that sort of thing? Well, I have no idea whether they do or they don’t. So anything I say would be uninformed speculation.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Most coaches are themselves former players, though.
Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson
I do think it's worth having a player there to do this
Goes back to, yes, the peer thing Nico mentioned and my own belief that some people are more likely to pay attention to a teammate saying it than a coach.
I believe there’s often a desire in most players to play more for their teammates than their managers and coaches because they forge a stronger bond with their peers.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'm not even sure it's a matter of 'playing for'
To use another analogy;
I can’t make my brother smarter or not. I can’t make him not go out drinking the night befor his exams; however, if he is of a mind to learn from me, having passed a number of exams, he’ll notice that one of the things that i’ve done is timed my alcohol imbimbing until after the pens are down.
Part of the problem in talking about this, of course, is that we are looking at it from the outside world. We can look at Travis Buck and think, hm, where has he gone astray? Maybe if he had someone to look up to, he’d be a more consistant producer? We don’t know this, of course. In addition, even if he did, how do we know if he’d even give enough of a damn to take advice?
I think my conclusion is something like this: A veteran on a young team can be a good thing to have, provided that his production and price tag justify his place on the 25 man roster.
On the other hand, it’s not enough to throw one in as some sort of silver bullet and expect him to be some sort of William Wallace tastic leadership force.
First and foremost, the most important thing is to have players on your roster who are good at baseball. No amount of veterany grit can cover up a lack of that.
I know, breakthrough, huh.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
No argument there
And I wouldn’t presume to claim that just having a veteran is the main thing. He should still be pretty good, too. Otherwise he’s just wasting space.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
yeah, I'm pretty much shooting for 'most obvious statement of the year'
here, aren’t I?
I’m blaming this on my wet socks. It’s making my brain go bad.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
All input is good
Sometimes a youngster is more likely to listen to an older peer than a coach who has been out of the game for a while, or who never reached stardom. There are so many things at play here.
Off Topic: I've been trying to get fired up about the GSOM site, but it is just so much less -
Intelligent than the AN discussions. When I first started reading AN, I discovered there was so much to baseball that I didn’t know. And the discussions between people who disagree are reasonable, measured, carefully crafted, and typically witty. I had hoped the same would be the case over at the Golden State of Mind, but instead it is knee-jerk complaining, total lack of factual analysis, and a comprehensive inability to sustain a conversation or reply to a well-framed analysis. And their spelling and grammar is atrocious.
Three cheers to AN! Even issues of permanent disagreement turn out to be wonderful opportunities for clarification, reconsideration, and education! I love you all.
Omigod, thanks!!!!!!!!
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Reasons
- Age.
- We’ve made the playoffs once in sixteen years.
- Age.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 12, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
No shit.
I love GSOM and love my Warriors even more, but sometimes reading that blog causes me to pull my f*****ng hair out!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
Seriously
Someone is trying to tell me that they’d decline Rudy Gay for Kelenna Azubuike and C.J. Watson.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 12, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
due to the presence of veterans ;-)
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
My first thought.
It’s really a world of difference.
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
Not just on those two sites.
AN is a breed apart from most sports blogs that I read, have read. There really is an elemental difference with the amazing plethora of subjects that are covered, and at great length w/ amazing knowledge. So, kudos to you all!
Cheers-MRod
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
It's very important to recognize that teaching is its own skill
It’s not just that some players aren’t interested in it — some players who are good might be interested in helping their teammates, and still be really bad at teaching/mentoring them.
Basically, playing baseball well and teaching others how to play baseball well aren’t the same thing. Two of the most celebrated hitting coaches in the last 30 years were Charlie Lau and Walt Hriniak, who were not good hitters. Dave Duncan, one of the best pitching coaches in the game for the last 20 years, wasn’t even a pitcher — he was a catcher. Ron Washington was a career journeyman who was never thought of as a gold-glover, but he’s considered one of the best fielding coaches around. And on the other hand, lots of very good players have been failures as managers and coaches.
Some people who have the knowledge and talent to teach baseball well are also good enough to deserve a spot on a 25-man roster, but I think that’s a pretty rare combination of skills. I think teams need a positive, specific reason to see a player as a good peer-teacher before bringing him in “to provide veteran leadership”.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
If Breslow has a doctorate in physics
I guess he doesn’t. I did some fact checking and he only has a BA in molecular biophysics.
But, I like the intro! False, but it’s a good lead in!
Ted Williams is a good example you left out. He took over as manager of the Washington Senators, determined to make every batter a “Ted Williams” lookalike, clone, as-good-as, however you view it.
I believe (according to an article in Baseball Digest) that two or three players significantly improved their batting. Others did not. Was it “only two or three” because no one can “teach the unteachable” except for special student/teacher situations (see Thomas, Paul, ) or because some players are bound to improve regardless of being taught?
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
Ted Williams was as heady a player as there ever has been.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, thank you.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ha!
Makes this story kindof gut wrenching, then.
by LowcountryJoe on Dec 12, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
Craig Brelsow has BA in molecular biophysics?
That’s awesome.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
He also has a BABIP in chemistry,
but it’s not sustainable.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
very very well played
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Dec 12, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
from yale, no less
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
from the Ivy League school Yale
or from “small y”>>>> “yale locksmithing”?
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions
I agree on the "positive specific reason" to bring in a veteran player, even on a team that doesn't expect to contend in 2010
Just a friendly reminder… the vet that started all this was Kevin Millwood. Millwood is a SP with 1 year left on his contract that was traded from the Texas Rangers to the have-no-chance-at-the-postseason-in-2010 Baltimore Orioles. Kevin Millwood was worth 2.7, 3.3, and 2.4 WAR over the past 3 years. Baltimore shipped a RP set to earn round numbers $1 million to Texas and they’re also getting a $3 million check from the Rangers to help pay Millwood’s $12 million 2010 salary.
So essentially the Orioles are out of pocket $8 million to have Millwood pitch for them next year. At an estimated cost of $4.5 million per WAR (on the FA market) Kevin Millwood would have to be a sub-2 WAR pitcher next season for the Orioles to lose money on the transaction. Put in layman’s terms, Millwood would have to get hurt or seriously struggle for the Orioles to lose out on this deal.
And why did the O’s want Millwood (even at $8-9 million) when they’re obviously not going to contend in the AL East next year? Because they wanted a SP they could count on to make 30 GS and 200 IP and anchor the 2010 rotation so none of their young pitchers were placed in a situation where they might feel pressured at being “the Ace” of the rotation.
All of which reminds me…
Nico, thanks oh-so-fucking much for giving this topic more life. I had hoped this was dead and buried after yesterday’s discussion. That’s what I get for having hope.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I've been biting my tongue on this one for awhile
But no time like the present, I suppose:
It really kills the conversation when there’s a group debating the topic, and someone just throws out WAR, salary, and concludes that x team is getting a awesome/crappy deal based on those metrics. The whole point of this thing is to have healthy debate, and baseball is awesome for anyone even remotely in stats because there are so many to choose from to evaluate a player.
Yeah, Millwood is a decent pitcher, and by your measure, the Orioles get a good deal. He’ll probably bring some veteran presence and maybe help one of their young guys master a splitter. Great — let’s talk about it though and not just leave it all up to ONE number.
The end
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:03 PM PST up reply actions
I think I may love you
I’ll have to check your FIP first, but it’s a strong possibility.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
thanks
don’t forget to add in my blog comment posting factor adjustment (BCPFA)
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions
I prefer FIP because
it ignores comments, fanshots, replies, and all weekend activity.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OK
So if you don’t want to talk about Millwood in terms of production or salary we can just focus on the hard to quantify intangibles he brings to the Orioles.
Based on your personal experience with and/or your in-depth research of Kevin Millwood the person/mentor/human being, do you think the Orioles have acquired a quality individual?
The monster at the end of this blog.
He's a guy I'd go to WAR with!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
WAR is not the One True Statistic
“Production” can be assessed in many ways. wOBA, wRAA, OPS — or better, a consideration of all three individually.
It’s fine to make salary a part of your considerations, too. One of the problems I have with WAR, though, is that when you say 4.5M per 1 WAR, player was 4 WAR, therefore anything less than $18M last year was a good deal. Let’s look at Scutaro — 4.5 WAR in 2008 × 4.5/WAR, value $20.25M.
Great. What does this tell me? He didn’t make that much last year and he won’t ever make that much in the current economic system. He was lucky to get the contract he did from the Red Sox over two years, in fact.
How does this help me in a comprehensive evaluation of how he will affect the Red Sox next year? Comprehensive does include things that we can’t quantify and aren’t worth trying to.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
First off
I’ve never said that WAR is the end all/be all of statistical analysis. I do think that it is an efficient shorthand to help people who aren’t heavy into stats understand the quality of the production a player provides. You want to use other numbers? Fine.
Although I’d suggest the next time someone’s talking about a pitcher you don’t argue for the use of wOBA, wRAA (at least use “p”) or OPS ‘cause those numbers don’t really focus on the pitching side of the equation.
What I find darkly humorous is that there are a few people on AN who are way heavy on WAR nearly every time they talk about a baseball player and here you are jumping down MY throat because I happen to be versed in WAR lingo. Allow me a moment to vent here:
There is no fucking rule on AN that dictates on pain of death that all discussions on player performance will be based on WAR. You are welcome to discuss players using other statistical means as you wish, although it is generally understood that some measures are better than others and when discussing pitchers (as Kevin Millwood happens to be) it would be inadvisable for you to use his Win-Loss record for justifying your position.
You want to use wRAA or some other numbers? Go ahead! Write your own diary or refer to your stat of choice in a comment on an existing thread. The reason WAR has gotten so much use on AN recently is because Fangraphs has been such a hit. More non-statheads are familiar with what the numbers provided by that website and it makes sense to speak in the language of the masses. But if you’d prefer to start a wOBA or wRAA revolution on AN than go ahead, take the forefront and use this platform to bring about the change.
I. Don’t. Care. About the math enough to have a preference. I’ll talk any player using any legit measure just as long as I have access to the same info you’ve got, and as long as we’re on the same page.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I need someone to give me a clinic in all of this STAT shit!
Cuz I barely made it thru my SAT’s!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
It's not meant at you specifically
You were just the first one today to use the general WAR formula I mentioned for quick player evaluation. I get the goal of it — but I just think it’s truly a fantasy statistic and not good for the types of thorough analysis we get into on here often.
Yes, those three stats were simply examples of upstream statistics that one could use, and in Millwood’s case you could use WHIP, FIP — whatever. In any case, your original comment was antithetical to the point of the post: there are non-quantifiable qualities, such as teaching, that some players have. I doubt this would be measured properly by a value statistic.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
Pitcher WAR on FanGraphs
essentially is FIP. The rest is just scaling.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
My original comment?
My original comment on this topic was made yesterday, in which I said the Orioles had a lot of non-quantifiable reasons to make the trade for Millwood. My disagreement with PaulThomas as I defended the non-statistical sparked this very thread by Nico….
Basically, I’m on your side. Would you mind directing your fire elsewhere? Thanks.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Here's the problem
Winning a baseball game is— except maybe for the Yankees— not worth $4.5M on a linear basis. (Actually, on this year’s free agent market, it’s not even worth paying $4.5M for. The free agent win store is having an “everything must go” blowout sale so far this offseason. But I digress.)
The actual number of increased jersey sales and ticket upgrades and etc etc etc that a win brings you is significantly less than that. Estimates of the marginal revenue benefit of a win that I’ve seen are in the $1.5M (low end) to $3M range for most teams. (Again, the Yankees are an exception. They can probably make money by signing free agents at market rates.) The average team gets a bunch of wins essentially gift-wrapped to them for free by the draft system, which accounts for the difference (because teams bank extra revenue from those wins, too).
To the extent that signing free agents is a good business idea, it’s because of the nonlinear revenue boost that getting to the playoffs provides. That nonlinear value, for the Orioles, is essentially bupkis. Their odds of making the postseason next year are tiny. They’re still trying to build a contending roster out of a pile of prospects. It would take “hits” on most of those guys, plus some unusually poor play from the divisional frontrunners, for them to hit paydirt.
The dollar value of WAR to a team is not constant. It varies based on the team’s prospective chances of success. Getting Rafael Soriano, a roughly similar player to Millwood in terms of value, for a roughly similar price, is vastly— vastly— more sensible for the Rays than getting Millwood is for the Orioles.
However much of an awesome “teacher” Kevin Millwood is, I seriously doubt it’s worth the $4M (ish) that I estimate they’re going to lose from paying for his baseball abilities.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
And by WAR, I mean the general concept, not the specific fangraphs statistic... you can calculate it however you like...
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Well argued, but it ignores the obvious
The Orioles still have to play 162 games next year… they still have to compete. Call it pride, call it an attempt to protect the erosion of their fan base or whatever, they still have to play next season. I’m not advocating that they go stupid and start throwing big money contracts at a bunch of FA in an attempt to get good instantly but even after adding Millwood’s fee to the mix the Orioles are still a minimum of $15 million under their 2009 payroll. With their media market they aren’t in any serious danger of losing money, so while you could argue that paying Kevin Millwood might not be the most efficient use of $8 million to win an estimated 2 games over replacement value it’s not as if his acquisition is suddenly going to put the Orioles in the red.
You are correct that the draft is the most cost-efficient means for a team to “earn” wins. But that takes time (and investment but putting money into your farm system is a good thing) and the last thing you want to do is rush under-developed prospects up to the Show. Millwood is a 1 year stop gap that will help prevent Baltimore’s FO from getting anxious with Arrieta or any other young pitcher. He gives them depth at a position of need (although there are other holes in the Orioles roster as well) and there is a good chance that he’ll perform well enough that he’ll be a viable trade chip in July. If Millwood completely bombs the Orioles cut him loose at the end of the season.
Your greater point about the cost of WAR in relation to marginal wins is valid, but I’ve got to point out an error in your Soriano/Millwood comp. Soriano is similar in terms of cost but not in terms of performance value. As a RP Soriano’s projected 2010 performance will most likely be a full 1 WAR lower than Millwood’s projection while he’ll cost (depending on how you look at the numbers) $1-2 million less in salary. Tampa needs bullpen help and Soriano could be exactly what the Rays need to sooth what ails them provided they can keep him healthy.
Looking towards the future is important but you cannot forget about the here and now. We have no reason to suspect that having Kevin Millwood on the Orioles 2010 roster will impact their ability to spend money in the draft or on international free agents. We have good reason to believe that his pitching will help the Orioles win baseball games next season.
And then there’s a whole bunch of fluff about teaching and mentoring that a college student like yourself doesn’t believe in.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm just hoping someone can teach Gio how not to walk people!
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
Impatient teacher: "For the 7th time this morning, Gio,
throw it here. Geez, how difficult is this?"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If tv has taught me anything
he just needs a pair of glasses and the love of a good woman to put him right.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Sweet
I am halfway there.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 12, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
better than I'm doing, then
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Midnight.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just reading Paul Thomas
I’ve flip-flopped between “Pro-Choice” and “Pro-Legal-Restrictions” about five times!
What’s next!! A live shot of the New Guinea lowlands Some points about the “Cargo Cult”??
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not "pro choice."
I’m “anti life.” Just like I would never consider being a vegetarian just because I love animals, but I might consider it because I really hate plants.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why would you disrespect an animal by putting A-1 sauce on it?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Dec 12, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I love A-1 sauce
those two years I was a vegetarian I’d dip french bread in the stuff.
I can’t live without A-1 sauce, Gulden’s spicy mustard and diet coke.
And don't forget about Tapatio, Sirracha sauce, & pepperoncinnis!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
(salivation)
I also enjoy Frank’s Redhot.
by LoneStranger on Dec 12, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
I'm a vegetarian in no small part because I dislike animals
and their ways. Especially them cows, wandering around the field all vacant and the like.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
I was a vegatarian for 2 years (the things we'll do for love)
but I had a double bacon cheeseburger the day I broke up with her and haven’t looked back.
tasty
Though I must point out, if anyone here is a vegetarian for health reasons (but really likes meat), there is a lot of building evidence for caloric restriction
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions
I've heard about that
doesn’t sound like a lot of fun to me. I just find if I work out an hour a day I can eat pretty much anything I want and stay in good shape.
Of couse I’m training for a marathon right now so I’m eating and working out more than normal.
cool, which one?
I ought to do that
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
It's in Febuary in New Orleans
my girlfriend has run in 3 of them while I’ve played golf and told dirty jokes but she talked me into running with her in this one. (the things we do for love part 2)
I’m running 8 miles a day now during the week and 10 on Saturday. I take off Sundays to watch the Raiders lose.
nice
I work for a non-profit and we have many to choose from that I can run in for free. Just have to work up the nerve.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions
the first two weeks kicked my ass
and I thought I was in good shape when I started this but it’s really starting to get easier and soon I’ll be up to 10 miles a day.
Watching the Raiders for a full game is the equivalent of 15 miles.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I used to work with someone who was into that
A couple of impressions:
1) I think you need to be seriously obsessive about food to do it. She would bring a digital scale to work and weigh the 8 almonds she ate with at lunch with her dressingless salad (also weighed) in order to get an accurate calorie count.
2) It may extend your life, but you can’t eat much, and you need to be constantly obsessed with food. It’s seemed a bit to me like a sort of methadone treatment for eating disorders — still having an obsessive relationship with food, but obviously much healthier than an eating disorder. Also, you’re cold all the time.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
So my lifestyle of
methodone, unprotected sex, and “ice cream for breakfast” does make sense!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wow Nico I might live 30 years longer than you
but you’re defintely going to have a hell of a lot more fun.
30% has been thought of as a reasonable restriction
So if you eat 2500 calories, that would bring you down to 2125. That’s about the equivalent of not eating dessert if you like dessert, not having a Starbucks if you like that, etc. Cutting a few small things out.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
There is a guy that just turned 113
he simply eats two meals a day, breakfast and lunch, and mostly fruits and veggies. Been doing that for thirty-five years.
…so I’m waiting until I’m 78, then I’ll give “two meals” a shot.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-09-24-oldest-man-diet_N.htm
"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."-Plutarch
by One won lost won on Dec 12, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions
Is he 113, or does it just SEEM like it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why the hell would you want to live to be a 113?
Everyone you’d know would be dead and you’d probably sleep 19 hours a day.
But you could really do great on that annuity you bought when you were 87
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I hope to live to 100
then go out in style. Maybe while eating a steak.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not generally gung-ho about living a long time,
and I’d be content to pass away at a normal age without raging raging against the dying of the light.
That said, if I should have the good fortune of living to be 113, that would be great. As for your two complaints, (1) what’s wrong with sleeping 19 hours a day? I love to sleep; and (2) OK, so maybe everyone I used to know is dead, but how about this: Think about what porn is like today compared to what it was 25 years ago. Now imagine what it will be like 25 years in the future. The 21st century will be a great time to be a dirty old man.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Dec 12, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Dylan Thomas + futuristic porn
Somewhere in Florida, there’s a fat guy smiling in his sleep.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Wait --
Everyone you’d know would be dead and you’d probably sleep 19 hours a day.
You’d become a cat?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No self-respecting cat would ever spend THAT amount of time a day not sleeping.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
by PaulThomas on Dec 13, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, this coworker was doing much more severe CR
Like 1,300 a day.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Oh, look, I found a New York Magazine story about her
Link.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
that sounds obsessive
i practice CR by fasting once or twice a week. it drops my overall caloric load.
the only drawback is it sometimes precludes my ingestion of rum on days when the A’s are driving me to drink.
If she's weighing almonds and dressing to the ounce
in order to count calories exactly, she’s not a good scientist. The calories-per-weight figures just aren’t that precise, so she’s making precise measurements that are lost to her margin of error anyway.
It’s like if you got out your stopwatch to time your commute to the second, looked at the speedometer and saw you were going 60 mph, and thus presumed to measure the length of the commute to the nearest foot.
The main advantage to counting calories is that it makes you aware of your eating habits, not that you actually have a very accurate read on your true caloric intake.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
yes, the true way is to put it in a bomb calorimeter and get the kcals like that
If she had that setup in her house I’d be both impressed and scared
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
"Hey...what's with the oxygen tanks in the closet?"
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
wait, sorry, I don't think I understand your post
how does that evidence review have much to do with a vegetarian diet?
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
that some people are vegetarians to lead a "healthier" existence
To some people, it’s that there are hidden deleterious health effects of meat, or contaminants within meat, or something like that that might cause disease later. My only point was that caloric restriction is coming out as something that, if you practiced it, might trump the benefits of vegetarianism.
If anyone wants to be a vegetarian for other reasons, though, there’s no problem with that.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
right, gotcha, sorry
I’m not sure you couldn’t have a calorifically restricted diet and still not eat meat, mind.
I don’t see what would make them mutually exclusive.
The tastiness of bread and cheese – now that’s a problem.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
yeah not mutually exclusive
But I know several people that think meat is tasty, but don’t eat it because they think meat is just that bad. Yet, like you said, these same people might down a plate of nachos, sour cream, and beans washed down with a couple cokes.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
I just watched the film Food Inc.
this week and if any movie could make you a vegetarian this is the movie but no sale for me. I like meat but if people want to be vegetarians more power to them.
Watched it last weekend actually
It was an okay movie, definitely a pro-environment pro-“slow food” film. I’m a fan of the former, but not the latter.
Incidentally, I like my chickens plump and deep fried and my steaks tender.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
I thought the slow food farmer
seemed kind of nuts but I’m sure his food tastes good as I do love the farmer’s market I go to about once a week.
Tender steaks and plump chickens sound good to me.
I would, but I'm too chicken.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
soy you say
(so you soy?)
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Great. Now you've made him clam up.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
lettuce hope so!
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
let me ketchup with this thread, geez
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
Take your thyme, cuppingmaster.
Your day breaks, your mind aches.
You find that all her words of kindness linger on
when she no longer needs you.
It's so cold out!
Why don’t you all cumin side by the fire…
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
this is such a plain vanilla conversation
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Dec 12, 2009 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
frankly, this is your fennel chance
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Cust not being tendered
(from Susan Slusser on Twitter)
will crosby spread his legs so far apart at bat that the games will have to be rated nc-17 -- emperor nobody
You didn't.
Nearly every useful offensive metric showed him to be a very valuable player in the DH position.
Your own ignorance and subjective bias is getting the way, I guess.
by Pucking Insane on Dec 12, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
Just curious, have you read "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell?
by Pucking Insane on Dec 12, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions
No, and I don't feel like I need to
Cust could be a good piece of a better offense, but here whatever talents he brings are wasted.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Like hitting for power and producing runs?
by Pucking Insane on Dec 12, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
Like all the arguments people have had about him since he put on the A's uniform
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Translation
“I don’t like Cust. Ergo, I want him gone, but I’ll give no evidence to support my position.”
It’s fitting in a sense that this is happening in this thread.
by Pucking Insane on Dec 12, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, I'm just not interested in repeating the same old stuff that's already been covered on him in the past
Sorry if you have a problem with that.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
but Flash
we never talk about Cust on AN.
I’m with you is there really anything left to say about the subject?
When you talk about Cust on AN,
there are really only three possible outcomes…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Jeez, give it a rest already.
I like Cust, too, but if someone else doesn’t, is it absolutely necessary that every single time he mentions it we have to call him ignorant and bitch because he doesn’t provide “evidence” for his preference? Crimony.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
When you actively dislike the best hitter on the A's
for two of the last three years and provide 0 reasons why, yes.
What a silly post. You are implying we are supposed to settle for mediocrity? And from a mod no less?
by Pucking Insane on Dec 13, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not a mod and like I said before, I don't feel a need to rehash the Cust argument over and over again
It’s been driven into the ground long before now.
The nice thing about it is I’m free to like or dislike any player I want for any reason I want, even if I’ve given my reasons before, and I don’t have to care if you have a problem with it.
Deal with it.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
Some people like crappy players.
Others should be allowed to dislike good players.
by LoneStranger on Dec 13, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Neifi Perez just never got a real opportunity.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No, I'm implying that we are supposed to
not be a dick all the time.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
WTF?!?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Sounds like we're supposed to occasionally refrain from
channeling Nixon.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 13, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
That would suggest to me that the A's are eyeing a power hitter somewhere
The projected lineup without Cust, as it stands now, is kind of ridiculous.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
or that they're confident they can re-sign him for less than they would through arbitration
ok, I’m grasping at straws here.
Don’t Let Jack Go!
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does