I've been paying close attention to trades for a few years now. And I have to say, rarely if ever have I seen a better match than the Rays and the A's right now. Each team has areas of significant strength and significant weakness. With the exception of outfielders, each team's strength happens to BE the other team's weakness. And both have a number of tradable assets unencumbered by bloated salaries or impending free agency. They really need to get together and make a deal, and I'm here to tell you have.

Warning: This is really long. I tend toward the verbose at the best of times, and the rambling at the worst. If you want the quick and dirty, skip down to the two bolded trade proposals at the bottom of the post.

Point The First: The Rays Have Too Many Infielders

Here are the triple-slash lines and WAR figures posted by the Rays' starting infielders in the 2009 season.

Jason Bartlett: .320/.389/.490; 4.8 WAR

Ben Zobrist: .297/.405/.543; 8.5 WAR

Evan Longoria: .281/.364/.526; 7.3 WAR

Carlos Pena: .227/.356/.537; 2.7 WAR

It's hard to argue that this was not the best infield in baseball in 2009. The Yankees were pretty good, but the Rays fielded the single-year equivalent of 2 Hall of Famers, another All-Star, and an average starter for a playoff team. That's insane. These men are not losing their jobs, regression to the mean be damned.

That said, the Rays also currently have three backups available:

Sean Rodriguez

Willy Aybar

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura has already been dumped. I wasn't a fan of that trade at all-- they seem to have panicked and feared being stuck with him through the start of next season. I can't imagine how that could have happened-- he's basically an average starter signed to a contract that pays him like a backup or fringe starter. Someone would have absorbed it. But it's all water under the bridge now.

Rodriguez is a quality prospect acquired from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade. The A's seem to like him, and were rumored to be considering a swap which would have sent Michael Wuertz to the Angels for him, although like all trade rumors, it's unclear how much credence we should put in that. While he's struggled badly in his MLB time so far, he's posted solid walk rates throughout his career in the minors, posted the usual ridiculous power numbers for an Angels prospect (if chicks really do dig the longball, the Salt Lake Bees' home park must be quite the dating opportunity) and appears to be able to handle several infield positions competently.

Aybar is a backup/platoon infielder. He's poor against lefthanded pitching and average at defense at 2B and 3B, so he's not well suited to be a starter. He won't be discussed further here; I'm assuming he will be kept on the Rays bench as the sixth infielder.

Reid Brignac is another former top prospect, and like Rodriguez he's struggled in very limited MLB time. He's still young (2010 will represent his age 24 season), has shown decent pop in the minors (career minor league isolated power of .167; hit 24 home runs in 2006) and is viewed as having a strong glove by most scouts and by TotalZone. Unlike Rodriguez, however, he lacks patience at the plate.

As things stand, the Rays will almost certainly be forced to send one of Rodriguez and Brignac to the minors. This seems suboptimal, as one of them will probably be playing a role sooner rather than later and both are essentially big-league ready. Instead, Tampa should look to move one of their infielders to address other weak spots on the roster.

Point The Second: The Rays' Catching Situation, By And Large, Sucks

Let's start with the general and move to the specific here. The 2009 Rays offense was very strong overall-- indeed, it set a team record for runs scored. It was, however, marred by two severe weak points. One of those was center field, manned by former wunderkind B.J. Upton. This is not the time or place to attempt an explanation of his troubles; let's just say that given his age and defensive acumen, he's on a sufficiently long leash that the Rays are likely not looking to upgrade center field. The other black hole was at catcher.

Even by the rather feeble standards of catcher offense, the Rays were horrible. Their catchers put up a combined .233/.276/.349 line, good for an sOPS+ of 74 (indicating that they were 26/2=13% worse than an average team at that position). Rays catchers were good for all of 0.8 WAR on the season, or almost a win and a half below average. The primary culprit was also the primary starter, Dioner Navarro, who followed up an uncharacteristically good 2008 with a genuinely horrible season. In just less than three full seasons' worth of PA, he has racked up an offensive value of -45.9 runs by Fangraphs. This is not that terrible-- as mentioned, catchers are awful offensively and the positional value of 12.5 runs largely cancels it out. Still, expecting even league-average play out of Navarro next season seems very optimistic.

The gaggle of backup catchers in the system are even less awe-inspiring. Michel Hernandez served as the primary backup in 2009, but he's 30 years old and hasn't even lost his rookie status yet. As far as I can tell, he's been released. Gregg Zaun could still end up taking arbitration, though his option was declined; his numbers are actually quasi-respectable, but he's approximately 60 years old and clearly not a long-term solution. Shawn Riggans barely played in 2009 and was horrible when he did; his career MLB wOBA is .274, and while that's a small sample, he's turning 30 next year and there's little reason to expect improvement. John Jaso, the last real internal option, has great plate discipline but is dogged by persistent questions about his defensive abilities and suffered a major power outage in 2009. The fact that he wasn't even called up to the big leagues once in 2009 is an implied vote of no confidence from Rays brass.

There's little help available on the free agent market. Tampa can likely find some more Riggins types by dumpster-diving (hello, Eliezer Alfonso-- how's it hangin'?) but that's about all that's out there. Jason Varitek is probably the best MLB free agent catcher, which is amazing. There's nothing there; if they want a chance to improve, it'll be by trade.

Enter Oakland, which has a surplus of catching talent right now. The MLB job is safely in the hands of Kurt Suzuki, who rarely sits and racks up value through playing time and defense while being passable with the bat. The A's also have three additional catchers at or near the major-league level and under team control, however-- Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Recker. Powell has had a ton of health problems and while he'd be a pretty solid candidate for a starter's job without them, that's water under the bridge at this point. Recker profiles more like Jaso, with more power and less plate discipline. He's a solid candidate for a team's second or third catcher, but it's a stretch to see him starting for anyone other than a team desperate for a warm body not named Rod Barajas.

The key to the whole situation is Josh Donaldson, who has put up some weird numbers in the minors (especially a walk rate which has fluctuated from amazing to actually below average) but, overall, a very strong hitting line since being drafted in the first round in 2007. He's still young for a catcher, turning 24 in a few months, and while his defense is not fabulous (Pravda claims some improvement in his skills, but those articles have to be read as carefully as Livy to figure out the grains of truth in them), he should hit legitimately at the major league level, something that any team has to hope for out of their catcher spot.

Donaldson would instantly become the best catcher in the Rays' system not named Navarro. In the best case scenario, in which Navarro hits like 2008 and a re-signed Zaun miraculously holds off demon Age for another season, he polishes his skills in AAA prior to a September callup. In the worst case scenario, Zaun falls apart, Navarro hits like it's... well, not 2008, and Donaldson is starting in the bigs by June. Navarro is nontendered that offseason and Donaldson takes the reins for the foreseeable future.

Point the Third: Oakland Lives, Breathes and Excretes Bullpen Pitchers

Here's something like what the current depth chart for Oakland's bullpen looks like.

RHP:

Andrew Bailey

Michael Wuertz

Brad Ziegler

Joey Devine

John Meloan

Jeff Gray

Santiago Casilla

Henry Rodriguez

Sam Demel

LHP:

Craig Breslow

Brad Kilby

Jerry Blevins

Dana Eveland

For the most part, this excludes starting pitchers. Eveland could theoretically get a starting job, but it's hard to see how at this point.

In any event, this is insane. There are 13 guys at Oakland or Sacramento who could be average or better relief pitchers. This is despite the subtraction of two significant prospects, Daniel Thomas and Andrew Carignan, to shoulder issues; despite the subtraction of 2008 mainstay Andrew Brown to the same (Tangent: anyone heard any news on whether he's managed to make a recovery? I loved that guy... he was such an odd character...); and not counting several intriguing pitchers lower down in the system like Mickey Storey and Paul Smyth.

[Tangent: Notice the origins of these guys? Santiago Casilla and Henry Rodriguez were signed as low-profile international free agents. Eveland was a peripheral piece of a major trade. Wuertz was acquired for two organizational players. Blevins was acquired for half a season of Jason Kendall. Devine was picked up for one season of Mark Kotsay. Meloan and Breslow were acquired for bupkis-- they were waiver claims. Brad Ziegler was signed as a minor league free agent. Then there are the draftees: Demel (3rd round), Bailey (6th round), Kilby (29th round), and Jeff Gray (32nd round).

The sum total of the resources the A's spent on this incredible collection of bullpen talent was four mid-to-late round picks, two C- prospects, and the corpses of two formerly good major leaguers. This is an object lesson in why it is never, ever, ever acceptable to expend a first-round draft pick on a relief pitcher. Ever. Or sign a Type A free agent relief pitcher.]

[Tangent to the tangent: What would happen if teams actually took this to heart? Type A relievers would virtually be forced to take arbitration if a team offered it-- indeed, that may already be the case in practice for anyone but the creme de la creme. It certainly presents an odd scenario. I'll be watching that situation with alert interest this offseason.]

Bottom line: The A's can afford to part with 3 or 4 of these pitchers without any real hesitation. That still leaves more than enough depth to withstand injuries. The team will probably trawl the minor league free agent list again this offseason to find one or two more guys worthy of a shot, and if a major crisis hits they might be turned to. Otherwise, even a denuded bullpen will be sufficient.

The Rays do not enjoy the same situation. Or, really, anything close to it. For whatever reason, their otherwise crack GM team has not succeeded in consistently putting together a good bullpen. It was briefly decent in 2008, but that was on the back of journeyman Grant Balfour, whose season that year now looks like an all-time fluke. He's still under team control in 2009, but might not even be tendered a contract. The only genuinely good reliever the Rays have at the major league level is J.P. Howell. Dan Wheeler has a spot because he's a sunk cost, but it confounds me that a team with the Rays' financial limitations gave a $10M contract to a mediocre relief pitcher. Randy Choate is decent and probably fills the second lefty spot.

Is there any help in Durham? The Bulls were an excellent minor league team this season, losing the AAA championship game to the Memphis Redbirds (who unseated the RiverCats from the PCL throne in a three-game sweep). Not much there, though. Winston Abreu had a great season, but he's 32 and hasn't stuck in the bigs in three tries despite consistently shredding AAA lineups. Like most of the Rays bullpen, he's incredibly prone to the gopherball.

As a result, the Rays need at least one and probably two good right-handed relief pitchers if they intend to compete in 2010 (as they should). They have two choices. One is to convert one of their excellent starting pitching prospects to the bullpen. The other is to make a trade.

Here's the thing, though-- starters are worth more than relievers. Way more. Converting starting pitching prospects to the pen is a wasteful process. The Rays can obtain surplus value by dealing one of those starters to a team with a surplus of good relief pitchers-- and coincidentally enough (OK, not coincidentally at all) the A's are exactly such a team. The A's need to concentrate value. The Rays actually need to spread it out, or at least move it from one part of the roster to the other. We've got a tailor-made trade situation here.

Point the Fourth: Putting the Pieces Together

Warning: The following requires large amounts of half-assed guesswork and projection based on minimal data samples. If this offends you, please stop reading, or at least skip to the end so you can tell me how obviously unfair this trade is to the [A's/Rays].

Donaldson

Let's take Josh Donaldson first, as he's the one guy we know is moving. The MLE for his performance this year was a line of .209/.291/.324. That looks really terrible, but it's deceptive. One wouldn't expect a 23-year-old to particularly dominate the minors. Also, it's based on a BABIP of .249, which seems comically low even for a catcher. It should be reasonable to predict improvement from that mark over the next few seasons.

The MLE line would be in the neighborhood of 20 runs below average over 120 games' worth of play. Over the same period he would accrue about 23 runs in positional value and playing-time value. That would make him worth about 0.3 WAR this season. He's a bit of an iffy defender, though, so let's call him exactly replacement level this season.

I'm going to project steady improvement over the next three seasons, though. Partly because it's easy and partly because it represents the center of a probability distribution ranging from "no improvement at all" to "breakout to star-level offense." Let's assume he picks up about 6 runs a season per year for the next three years, and that he plays only half a season next year (60 games). Let's also assume he starts declining in his age 30 season at half the rate that he ascended at. His value then looks like this:

0.3+1.2+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.5=10.2 WAR

Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez had a rather excellent season in AAA this year, posting an MLE line of .236/.325/.452. He has also, however, struggled terribly in the majors so far in his young career. It's nothing that can't be overcome (a mere 216 plate appearances) but in those PAs he's put up the ugly line of .203/.276/.333, coincidentally rather similar to Donaldson's MLE from this year. That being said, it has to be leavened with the AAA numbers. Right now, if Rodriguez were to step into a lineup and play everyday, I'd peg him for around a .700 OPS. While he's slightly older than Donaldson, he should also improve steadily over the next few seasons. His bat probably has a bit more upside in it, so I'll call his improvement 8 runs a season until his age 26 season.

We have only tiny samples of major league play to go on when it comes to defense for Rodriguez. Some TotalZone has tended to characterize him as about an average infielder in the minors, oddly varying not a jot from position to position. Let's call him an average second baseman, as that weighs his apparent decency at shortstop against the fact that average in AAA is probably below average in the majors. What value does all of this give us?

Right now, he would be roughly 10 runs below average with the stick, with a +2.5 position/defense adjustment and 20-ish replacement runs for a WAR of about 1.3. Measuring that out (I won't bother declining him at age 30, as infielders tend to last longer than catchers):

1.3+2.1+2.9+2.9+2.9+2.9=15 WAR

Hm. Pretty valuable. More so than Donaldson. If he's the return piece, we'll need the other half of the trade to make up some ground.

Brignac

You can really see the difference in MLEs between the International League and the Texas League here, as Brignac comes in ahead of Donaldson in MLE (.245/.281/.354) despite posting a significantly worse in-season hitting line. Disappointingly, however, his line has basically stagnated since he was 20. This stagnation has been matched with a stagnation in his prospect stock, as he's failed to improve while other top prospects have passed him by. I'm a bit surprised to see he only received a grade of C+ from John Sickels last season.

What can we project from him moving forward? He doesn't have fantastic hitting skills; his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired and his power production has, like the rest of his offensive game, seemingly stalled. Right now, he would hit at about 20 runs below average. I'm going to project an improvement of 3 runs a season to age 27.

On defense, it's a different story. TotalZone pretty much thinks he's the bee's vertebrae, if not quite knees-- he scored poorly this year but very well in every prior year. I'm fairly comfortable penciling him in as an above-average MLB shortstop. Let's say 2.5 RAA so that it plus the positional adjustment makes him 10 RAA as a fielder. Add in 20 replacement runs, and right now he'd be worth about 1 WAR. Again, I'm going to project a half-season from him next year and then six years beyond that.

0.5+1.3+1.6+1.9+1.9+1.9+1.9=11 WAR

Seemingly a little better than Donaldson, but in the ballpark where a swap of the two is likely to benefit both teams.

Relievers

Thankfully, we don't have to get into the heavy-duty (and heavy-handed) guesswork here. Most of these guys have actual track records.

The Elite

Bailey: Nasty 2.56 FIP this season led him to accumulate 2.4 WAR. Assuming some regression to the mean, he's probably good for at least 1.5 for the next 5 seasons. Of course, he's a pitcher, so we'd better mark in some discount for injury risk (especially since he already has one round of Tommy John on his CV). Call it 1.2, then, implying that he's worth about 6 WAR overall.

Wuertz: Even nastier 2.37 FIP this season, though he's not been as good in prior years. Probably about as good as Bailey going forward, since the personal "mean" that he's regressing to looks a lot like the league mean that Bailey is regressing to, but he's only under contract for 2 more (relatively expensive) seasons. Worth about 2.4 WAR, but they're less efficient than the other prospects'.

The Very Good

Ziegler: FIP doesn't really do Brad Ziegler enough credit because of his insanely high ground ball rate. His home run rate is tiny, of course, but they also get him out of a lot of jams through double plays. In his first two seasons, one a partial year, he's assembled 2.1 WAR. After we discount for injury risk (which might be lower for submariners but-- as Pat Neshek could tell you-- doesn't disappear), he looks to be worth about .9 WAR a season to me, or 4.5 over 5 years.

Joey Devine: His 2008 FIP was sick (under 2) but somewhat based on not actually allowing ANY homers on 44 flyballs. This is not likely to continue. He also had some crappy performances in prior years (albeit in very small samples). Health is clearly an issue for him seeing as how he missed the whole 2009 season with Tommy John. I'm going to assume he misses the first 2 months of next year rehabbing, and discount him by 50% to account for injuries. That pegs him at about 0.7 WAR a season after next year and about 0.5 WAR next year, for a total of 3.3 over 5 years.

Jerry Blevins: He was squeezed out of the bullpen in a numbers game this year, but the man knows how to pitch. Only three lefthanded relievers with at least 20 IP bettered his 3.01 FIP in 2009, and that number was assembled without the benefit of a ridiculous home run rate. He's somewhat flyball prone, so he's unlikely to be truly elite, but he's amassed 0.9 WAR in about a year's worth of IP, and he's pretty durable. Regressing that somewhat, but accounting for the fact that he still has 6 years of control (I think), he should be worth around 4 WAR.

The OK

Craig Breslow: Something of a revelation this year, as he pitched competently for the A's after a waiver claim. Amazingly, this is his fifth organization in five years. He's been averaging about 0.6 WAR per season (roughly a league-average reliever), but he's no spring chicken and will probably decline somewhat over the 4 years remaining before he would become a free agent. Overall probably worth around 1.5 WAR.

Dana Eveland: Had a horrible season as a starter this year, but his fringy control and decent lefty stuff might play a bit better in a bullpen role. His career FIP of 4.36 would probably drop some, to more like 4-- still not great, but good enough to make him an option as a second lefty. Four seasons of Eveland at 0.4 WAR a pop put his value at about 1.6 WAR total.

The Mediocre

Santiago Casilla: In six partial seasons, Casilla has only managed to amass 0.4 WAR total. He may or may not be better than Jesse Chavez, since at least he's in positive territory, but he never really seemed to recover from an elbow sprain in May 2008, as his control seemingly vanished after the injury. He's now up for arbitration and will probably be nontendered. Might be useful as a throw-in in our trade, though, so let's credit him with 0.3 WAR value (0.1 a season).

The Prospects

Jeff Gray: His numbers make him look like a control specialist, but he does throw fairly hard. He's been a bit longball-prone in his career, which would make him fit right in on the Rays' staff (... sorry). Does get ground balls, though, if not quite at the rate of college chum Ziegler (interestingly, the other future MLB player on their team at the time was, of all people, Ryan Howard). He hasn't dominated the minors, so expecting him to be more than an average reliever is probably excessively optimistic. Discounting for injury risk, he's probably worth about 2.5 WAR total.

Brad Kilby: If you haven't watched his pitching motion, check it out. It's a trip. He literally hides the ball behind his left butt-cheek until he's halfway through his delivery. This apparently works like a charm, because he struck out 97 batters in 80 1/3 innings this season. Unlike Gray, Kilby HAS dominated the minors, and while his fastball isn't shooting off sparks as it approaches the plate, he's got good velocity on it for a lefty reliever. This year he was on pace to be worth about 1.6 WAR. Discounting that as usual, but keeping in mind his stellar track record and sturdy build, he seems like a 1 WAR a year kind of guy, and that's worth a total of 5.5 or so over 6 seasons, discounting a bit for decline at the end.

Henry Rodriguez: There probably isn't a pitcher with a more unhittable fastball in all of prospect-dom. Unfortunately, the strategy to beat Henry Rodriguez does not involve swinging at said fastball. He walked 41 batters in 52 1/3 innings this season. He has also, for whatever reason, consistently posted BABIPs against that range from bad to baffling. If Barry Zito is one end of the BABIP-as-skill spectrum, so far it looks like Rodriguez is at the extreme other end. Trying to project him as a reliever is basically hopeless, so I'm going to give up and pretend that he's 2009 Carlos Marmol, who posted a WAR of 0.6 despite being very lucky on home run balls. I'll credit Rodriguez with 0.3 WAR a season, or a total of 1.8 over six years.

John Meloan: Hm, seems he was already in Tampa's system earlier this year. Whoops-a-daisy. He seemed to finally put it together late this season after yo-yoing around half the parks in AAA. Trying to make head or tail out of a statline which has seen him play in 14 different parks in 4 seasons is not easy, but he looks sort of averagey, maybe a bit worse. I'm calling him the same as Rodriguez, albeit for different reasons. Another 1.8 WAR player.

Sam Demel: The wildest card of all, as he's never played in the majors. He's consistently maintained about a strikeout an inning in the minors, though, and while his control isn't all that great, it comes with a power sinker which gets a ton of ground balls (55.4% for his career) and two offspeed pitches. He looks a lot like a young Jason Grimsley, who varied from good to awful at times in his major league career, but was if nothing else always interesting to watch. (As far as I know, Demel doesn't have the roid rage. But he's pretty comparable otherwise.) Projecting his skill is pure guesswork, but I think he'll put up 3 WAR or so in his period of team control. Your mileage may vary.

Let's map out some potential trades, then.

Donaldson should mostly cover the value of Brignac, if the A's want him. If they prefer Sean Rodriguez, we're looking at dealing one of the high-value relievers along with him. Donaldson plus Devine gets most of the way there, but the Rays will probably be looking for more. Throwing in Jeff Gray would make the values very close to even and seems like an excellent trade for both teams. Brignac is undoubtedly capable of handling any infield position well enough, and even if there's an adjustment period, Aybar is also available to cover the corner spots. Meanwhile, the Rays turn the surplus from the Kazmir deal into one reliever who is elite if healthy, another who seems to be pretty decent, and the catcher of the future.

Now, what about if the Rays really want to keep Rodriguez? Donaldson for Brignac is a fairly even swap, but the Rays clearly can take advantage of Oakland's pitching depth. What else have they got in return? Well, as I mentioned, they've got a bunch of starting pitching prospects lurking around. Nick Barnese, Adam Moore, and Jake McGee are intriguing. 

Barnese has suffered some injury problems but overall did well in Low-A ball this season. His strikeout rate was down a little, but he has quality stuff and projectability on his side, along with youth.

Matt Moore is a bit better than Barnese from the statistical side of things, except that he's had command issues at times. His strikeout rate is disgusting (and constant-- basically about 12.8 per 9 innings throughout his pro career). He did a better job than Barnese of staying healthy this season.

Jake McGee is a bit older and would be closer to the majors, except that he had Tommy John surgery in mid-2009 and only just got back into the swing of things late this year. He played some rookie ball this year and predictably blew it away, but struggled some in High-A ball. A lot of that was bad BABIP, but it does raise some concern over whether he's really 100%.

I think McGee is the right choice here. Moore and Barnese are a few years away, and by that time, the Rays may need reinforcements for their rotation. Right now, those concerns are nonexistent. Price/Shields/Garza/Davis/Niemann is as good a group as any in the game.

So the question then becomes how much reliever value is needed to cancel out the starter value of McGee. He has high flameout potential (there's probably a 50% or greater chance he never starts a game in the majors) but also high upside. There's no question but that the Rays will want two guys back, and they need righties more than lefties at this point.

The Devine/Gray package again looks fairly attractive here, or the Rays might prefer Ziegler. Their need for right-handed relief that can get righties out is acute, and few are better than Ziegler at that task. They'd probably want a prospect included with him, and it makes sense for the A's to give them one. Again Rodriguez seems to make a lot of sense, but if they're not interested in dealing with his issues, Gray probably offers similar value in a different sort of package.

Thus, we have

Trade Proposal #2: Josh Donaldson, Brad Ziegler, and Henry Rodriguez for Reid Brignac and Jake McGee.

You must be champing at the bit right now, either to tell me how awful my logic is, or how you wish this trade would happen but it never will, or something. Fire away. I've invited DRaysBay over to participate in what I hope will be a collaborative process, so be nice to them.

Have at ye. I'll check back in in the morning to see what's the haps.