Bill James 2010 Projections Now on Fangraphs
by Taj Adib on Nov 9, 2009 1:53 PM PST
88 comments
I just got through perusing the Bill James 2010 projections that have been posted on the Fangraphs player pages. Some have suggested that James' projections are fairly optimistic...that may be true generally, but it doesn't seem to be the case with his projections for the 2010 A's position players. Even so, there seems to be a few reasons for optimism next season, if you're a believer in James' method of evaluation. Here are some of the highlights:
Barton - .254/.357/.405/.762 with 5 homers
I think Barton could very easily beat this projection, but not by leaps and bounds. I think his BA and OBP will be a little higher than this and I think he'll also post a higher slugging %. I'm guessing that he'll be more like .270/.370/.420 with about 12 homers. He won't ever be an All Star, but he'll be a decent contributor, playing good defense at 1st and approaching an .800 OPS.
Sweeney - .290/.351/.403/.754 with 8 homers.
I think this is about right for Sweeney. The power just isn't there at this point in his career, and he'll be 25 next season, so if it doesn't come soon, it might never come...like Barton, if he continues to play fine defense, he'll be a positive contributor regardless.
Rajai - .284/.339/.379/.718 with 50 STEALS!
This projection seems about right as well. James has Rajai slipping down to a more-normal-but-still-high .330 BABIP, probably due to his speed. With his defense and speed, I think we'll all be pretty happy if Rajai can put that triple-slash line together next season.
Hairston - .271/.325/.478/.803 with 20 homers.
James projects Hairston to bounce back in a big way. That type of line is definitely what I expected Hairston to do when he first got here. If he can stay healthy, I think he's plenty capable of putting this line together.
Cust - .253/.385/.464/.849 with 25 homers
James loves Cust for some reason. I think this projection is considerably over-optimistic. I think Jack will get-base at about a .380 clip, but with only slug for like .440. I'm projecting more of a .240/.380/.440 line with 25 homers, which is still a nice bounce-back year for him.
Suzuki - .275/.334/.412/.746 with 13 homers
Just about right for Kurt, in my opinion.
Pennington - .251/.338/.338/.676 with 2 homers and 13 steals
Whenever someone posts identical OBP/Slugging percentages, that person is either a Nick Johnson or Bobby Abreu type of on-base machine, or is a Bobby Crosby-ian type of punchless offensive player. I believe Pennington is much closer to being the latter...man, I really wish Beane could have swooped in and grabbed JJ Hardy...I hope Pennington can play pretty damn good defense, because that slugging percentage totally depresses me.
According to James, the A's pitching staff will be pretty damn awesome, with the exception of Cahill:
Braden - 3.94 FIP
Anderson - 3.63 FIP
Gio - 4.61 FIP
Mazzaro - 3.88 FIP
Cahill - 5.12 FIP
Eveland - 4.26 FIP
Kilby - 3.33 FIP
Bailey - 3.62 FIP
Breslow - 3.68 FIP
Devine - 2.89 FIP
Ziggy - 3.48 FIP
Wuertz - 3.31 FIP
Blevins - 3.07
GRay - 3.70 FIP
OVerall, it seems like James is projecting the A's to have a pretty deep and talented pitching staff and a mediocre offense buoyed up by a few bounce back years from some vets and a few league-average performances around the diamond, with a major speed attack via Rajai and little power. As long as the team plays strong defense next season, I'd be mostly happy if these projections came true and if Beane can add some sort of league average+ hitter at 3rd (Glaus?) and some sort of veteran better-than-average starter...I'm thinking that if all of that came to be, the 2010 A's could by like the 2009 Mariners, but a bit better offensively and a little worse defensively. That should at least position the A's to be a .500 at least, which would be a very welcome change...
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That Eveland prediction...
optimistic? Seems unlikely to me; I wonder if value could be got for him, or if he’s better off being kept around for when one of the SP inevitably gets hurt…
by bobnothing on Nov 9, 2009 2:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
How is Eveland doing on options?
I know he has been riding the AAA-Majors shuffle for a couple of seasons now, does he have any options left?
by DiegoAsFan on Nov 9, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No
This year was his last option season.
Could still be hidden as the long man in the bullpen though. Right now the A’s don’t really have anyone else who slots into that role (i.e. someone you’d like to keep around, but don’t care enough to insist on getting a start every five days).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
judging by his latest performances
I’m not sure we even want him around at all
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Nov 9, 2009 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No argument based on 2009
but sometimes guys just have a bad season. I’m not quite ready to kick him to the curb yet.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure if some other team made an offer for him, Beane wouldn't be asking the earth
by the same token, as you say, it wouldn’t be a disaster if he was around for another year or so as long relief / fill in starter
by bobnothing on Nov 9, 2009 8:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not a disaster, but what would we get in return?
crap in = crap out
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Nov 9, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sean Gallag....errr nevermind.
"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 9, 2009 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the best thing
would be to hope he dominates in Spring Training and in Sac next year then maybe trade him for a low minors player who is old for his level but may be able to be fixed with some adjustments. He’d have to go to a team who’s desperate for SP though. I think that’ll be the only way we get anything of value for Dana. Hey, video games loved the guy til like 2007. He always ended up at like 88 overall haha
by JustinIcon19 on Nov 9, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cue Cahill apologists
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Nov 9, 2009 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen the way his pitches move?!?
Just sick …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Nov 11, 2009 12:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's crazy! EVERY PITCH moves over 60 feet!!!!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 11, 2009 9:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{except the 5-7 he bounces}
But the rest!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 15, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That Brett Anderson number has me drooling.
And I think it’s definitely possible he beats that number.
Also, what’s up with Braden being beaten by Mazzaro? I don’t see any scenario where that happens, barring injury.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 9, 2009 2:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Those pitching numbers are ridiculous.
If you believe this, then the ‘10 A’s rotation would be composed of roughly 3 #2 starters and 2 #3 starters.
by Tripp on Nov 9, 2009 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If Davis gets 550 PAs or so...
with a .340 OBP, what is the ratio of times on base per stolen base? What is the average for a speedster?
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Nov 9, 2009 4:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
from fangraphs
the projection is for 106 singles + 27 doubles + 37 walks. Also 18 CS to go along with the 50 SB.
So that mean a stolen base attempt 40% of the time. But it’s not counting HBP or times that Rajai might reach base on a fielder’s choice. Those would add a few extra opportunities, but he probably loses more opportunities from the number of times when there is a runner clogging the bases ahead of him. I was also pretty generous in assuming that his would try to steal third at the same rate as steals of second.
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow 18 CS? Thats a pretty meh ratio. Like barely break even.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Nov 10, 2009 6:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it's almost as if
the other teams are expecting him to run…
by colin on Nov 10, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn base cloggers!
Let’s trade Cust for Willy Taveras!
by el generico on Nov 12, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
about Cust
The thing that stuck out for me in James’ projection is that he predicts Cust’s K% to decline further. It was around 41% in 2007-2008, and 36% this last year. The 2010 projection is 34%.
Now usually, we would think that cutting down on strikeouts is great, but in Jack’s case the reduction in strikeouts this year came along with bad contact that killed his power. So while I expect the same rebound in ISO, I expect his STRICKOUTS to go back up again.
Probably this is not the kind of detail that gets included in the James model.
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 4:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
second time it has happened to me
probably the strangest detail of AN auto-formatting: I tried to put a bunch of exclamation points, with a ‘1’ mixed in, after ‘STRICKOUTS’ in the above comment. Somehow AN cut them out.
Playing around with preview:
- STRICKOUTS!
- STRICKOUTS!!
- STRICKOUTS!!!
- STRICKOUTS!!!!
- STRICKOUTS!!!1
- STRICKOUTS <- this one is supposed to be two exclamation points, then a ‘1’, then another exclamation point
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!1!
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE
Interesting. Works fine in the subject line.
Which in this case is really all that matters!
by oblique on Nov 9, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The ! behaves the same as _, *, etc.
Text between two exclamation points is treated as an image link.
So if you type
it is interpreted as!image.jpg!
<img src=“image.jpg”>
In your post, it’s looking for an image with the URL “11”, and then since it can’t locate such an image, you get the little question box.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 9, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So not only does autoformatting keep screwing up posts,
it also lacks a sense of humor.
Good times.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 11:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"What did Unit 1 transmit to Unit 2?"
“10011010 10101 1010100101010”
“Ha. Ha. Ha.”
by Joey C. on Nov 12, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it be "What did Unit 1 transmit to Unit 10"?
Sincerely,
A Humorless Binary Programmer
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 15, 2009 8:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nice catch
I was very confused about what sort of formatting exclamation points would imply. The asterisks for bold face made sense to me.
by colin on Nov 10, 2009 6:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure Ziggy will do that well
An FIP better than Bailey? Gray, Bailey, Breslow all about the same? And Blevins better than all three?
Certainly this was not portended by the end of this year
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Nov 9, 2009 6:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Such is regression to the mean
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Nov 9, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we get a full year like Cust's 2nd half of 09 but with more pop
more STRICKOUTS!!!! as well as more walks and HR’s. I think we can expect him to get close to an 850 OPS. He was headed in that direction in the 2nd half of 09….
I think Suzuki & Pennington blow those projections out of the water. Barton will most likely hit 12-15 HR too if he plays everyday. I think he’s a little better than a .260 hitter too.
I agree with Hairston, Davis, Sweeney.
I dont like Cahill’s projection, I think he’s been penalized for pitching poorly in July and when he obviously got burnt out late in the season. For a guy supposed to be at AA-AAA last year, he’s not getting the slack associated with that. He’s never pitched that many innings before too, professionally. I believe we need to take his numbers with a grain of salt he did throw 10 excellent games for us when he had no business being here, SSS or no, thats gotta count for something right?
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 6:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I feel the same way about cahill
Hopefully he learns from his year here and pitches much better. He’s only gonna be 22 and was rushed. Weren’t some growing pains expected?
by Twan54321 on Nov 9, 2009 10:58 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'm excited to see how he develops over the next couple of years
whether in Oakland, Sacramento, or both.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 9, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Taj. Please explain the FIPs for me. at least how the numbers work.. is a larger number better?
Also, I see Cahill coming back for his 2nd MLB year and doing well. Cahill, Anderson and Mazzaro all have shown they can get better after a while from what I saw in the Minors.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Nov 9, 2009 7:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
FIP is a metric
where they calculate the run expectancies of events out of the defense’s control. In other words, they look at what each event (HR, strikeout, etc) is worth in terms of runs, and ignore any event that results in a ball going into play (only looking at HR, K, BB, HBP, intentional BB).
The numbers themselves act pretty much like ERA. League-average is a shade better than 4.5.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 9, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP's are a lot of fun...
…what you do in FIP’s almost can’t be done…
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 9, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ignore balls that are put in play other than homers?`
What the hell’s the point of that? That’s in no way just “luck.”
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Nov 11, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The FI in FIP stands for "Fielding Independent"
The only results that don’t involve fielders are homers, walks, HBP, and intentional BB.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 11, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what it stands for.
I just never knew how it was calculated. It just strikes me funny as a useful metric, since it doesn’t capture what happens in more than half of a batter’s plate appearances.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Nov 11, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By and large, it ignores the batter completely doesn't it?
It’s a pitching metric :)
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 11, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And fly balls hit to Jack Cust.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 15, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not just "luck", but
there is solid data showing that completely ignoring all balls in play is a better predictor of pitcher’s performance than taking the actual result of all balls in play. The latter introduces a different kind of distortion which is even worse.
Presumably there are other methods of measuring pitcher performance that are better than either extreme. This is what tRA, among others, attempts to achieve. But given a simple choice of counting everything as it played out or counting only HR, K, BB, you’re actually better off ignoring the balls in play.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 11, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nope
larger number is smaller. These FIP values are from fangraphs, so I think they are scaled to match league average RA (like ERA, but leave the unearned runs in). The main thing is that FIP only counts the outcomes that don’t involve the defense (HR, K, BB, IBB, HBP), so it should better reflect the pitcher’s skill.
League average RA is something like 4.5, so Brett Anderson’s projection is very good and Cahill’s is very bad. Because FIP has less luck component, the range isn’t as big.
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Larger number is smaller?
No wonder people can’t understand stats.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do people expect Cliff Pennington to exceed this projection?
I think he was playing over his head this year in Oakland.
by DDroney on Nov 9, 2009 7:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well, just to play devil's advocate, since I don't expect Cliff to reproduce last year's Major League numbers in '10
Cliff played 60 games, over 1/3 of a season, and his SLG was .418. Now, if his “natural” SLG is really .338, then he was exceeding his natural SLG by about, what, 25% for 1/3 of a season. The question is how likely it is for a player in his first extended playing time in the majors to be that lucky.
Of course, he never hit that well in far, far more PAs in the minors, so from that perspective it looks like a blip. But it’s a pretty weird time to have a blip for that long.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Nov 9, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't pennington always dealing with injuries in the minors?
maybe i’m mistaken, but i thought i remembered people mentioning that his stint in oakland was the first time he was 100% in a while. if so, that might explain why he hit better in the majors.
by guy incognito on Nov 9, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His 2006 and 2007 seasons he had a bunch of hamstring issues
Clearly affected his running game, and it might have affected his hitting, too.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and a wrist issue last year, i think
anyway, i’m not saying he’s going to be a star or anything, but maybe his numbers in oakland last year are more along the lines of what we might expect from him than his numbers in the minors, so long as he stays healthy. he was a highly touted 1st round pick, so he clearly had the potential to be a solid player at some point.
by guy incognito on Nov 10, 2009 6:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's mainly due to his HR rate and BABIP
If Pennington hit for the same BABIP and HR rate in the majors as he did in his minor league career, his slugging would have been .346.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mostly accurate
As you all know, I can’t stand Jack Cust. His at bats make me physically ill. That being said, the Cust projection is accurate. Barton only 5 homers, because I don’t think bill james thinks he will be in the majors for most of the season. Probable demotion.
I think Suzuki can hit more homers. Especially if Powell plays more, and Suzuki dosen’t wear down at the end of the season.
I agree about MoneyPenny. I like him, and want him to succeed, however, he is a 4A player. Early Grant Green appearance?
by StewCrew on Nov 9, 2009 7:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Grant Green??
Grant Green’s entire, professional experience so far consists of 20 plate appearances an A-ball, where he OPS’ed .718 in a notorious hitter’s league. Bringing him up next year would be absolutely crazy.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Nov 9, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
BURN HIS SERVICE TIME, NOW!!!1111
"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 9, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon Beckham came up the year after being drafted
And as we all know, coming up with one example of success means that it’s the most likely scenario.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He actually played the year he was signed though
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Nov 10, 2009 7:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's clear something up here
This is not what “Bill James thinks.” This is what a projection system, executed by a computer using a system which has the vague imprimatur of Bill James, thinks.
These projections are no more the result of Bill James’s personal analysis than is my sister’s pot pie the result of Marie Callendar’s personal baking.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmm pie
Chicken? Can I come over? I’m hungry
Ooo! Piece of candy!
by ChickenStanley on Nov 9, 2009 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
More interesting numbers
While Rajai Davis has an OPS of almost .720, his wOBA is predicted to be .323 and he is predicted to be 2.7 runs below average (in 533 PAs).
The rest of the team and their wOBAs with runs above average in parentheses.
Daric Barton .337 (1.5)—in 236 PAs
Scott Hairston .345 (6.7)
Ryan Sweeney .332 (1.6)
Cliff Pennington .311 (-3.4)—233 PAs
Kurt Suzuki .325 (-1.9)
Jack Cust .375 (20.7)
Mark Ellis .313 (-6.2)
Adam Kennedy .311 (-6.0)—421 PAs
Bobby Crosby .301 (-4.3)—191 PAs
Brett Wallace .332 (1.6)—544 PAs
Travis Buck .320
Eric Patterson .338 (2.2)—274 PAs
Eric Chavez .341 (3.9)—378 PAs
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Nov 9, 2009 11:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If the James projections are as overoptimistic as usual,
the A’s offense is going to be horrible next season…
I guess we have to hold out hope that they’ve recentered them so that they actually reflect a post-2002 run environment.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well unlike most years,
these predictions from this projections system actually seem very reasonable – except for Mazzaro, if he puts up a 3.88 FIP next year I’ll eat my hat.
"To tell the truth, I'm not excited to go to Cleveland, but we have to. If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to Cleveland, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'm lying" - Ichiro
by Philip Christy on Nov 10, 2009 2:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
That projection is the one number that REALLY made my eyes pop. I love the A’s, I am an eternal optimist and I like Mazzaro as a possible future piece on this club. With all that said, I do not understand this projection…
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Nov 10, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They made a mistake
They accidentally substituted in the projection of an “old scout” as quoted by Buster Olney for the correct result.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they're only projecting him to make 2 starts
The first 2 are often quite excellent.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 10, 2009 9:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't worry they are
It says Chavez will get 378 PAs
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
by Cheezombie on Nov 10, 2009 2:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, every projection system has an impossible time with playing time
That’s why looking at counting stats like home runs is invariably worthless. The only thing projections are any good at is rate stats.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the same thing
However, as I’m sure you well know, the Bill James projection system is also terrible at dealing with breakouts and one or both of Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney could find themselves in a position to do that very thing.
In years past, I have used players’ 2nd half numbers with heavy weight when projecting for the next season (this was purely gut-based projections, no formula involved). After years of reality checks due to overprojection, I have come to a much healthier viewpoint of giving the majority of the weight to the bigger picture and then a little added emphasis on “what have you done for me lately” as this can still be a sign of a breakout (candidate).
As a result of that, I could see Sweeney putting up an almost wOBA to 2009 (as the James system projects) or as a result of his much better second half, I could see Sweeney putting up a wOBA between .340 and .350 in 2010. The man was only in his age-24 season in 2009. There’s definitely room for improvement.
Any prediction for Daric Barton is a much tricky beast. You have nearly 800 PAs in AAA with a wOBA of .366 between 2006 and 2007 (20 and 21 seasons). Then you have 84 PAs at .452 as a 21-year old in the majors. If Barton were a league average(ish) hitter with a .330 wOBA, that would be 37% better than his season line. Combine the length (about a month) and height (37%) of the blip and that’s a blip that can’t be entirely swept under the rug. On the other hand, his next 523 PAs as a 22-year old in the majors were at a .302 wOBA (8.5% below .330). At this point, as a 22 year old, Barton’s career wOBA is around .323 (in 607 career PAs). The next year starts off even more poorly with a terrible .274 wOBA in Barton’s first 83 PAs. However, in Barton’s final 109 PAs of his age-23 season, he put up another stellar .404 wOBA to have a final season tally of .343 in 192 PAs.
Suffice it to say, (as we all know) Barton is all over the map—which makes it a lot harder to have a prediction for his future performance. Looking at the total picture, Barton has 799 PAs at a just barely below average rate of .328. Moving forward I could see him bust in the next season (still will be only 24 years old)—one only needs to point to his 2008 season at .302 to see that possibility. I could seem him sit right around .330-.340, or I could see him put up a .360 wOBA or higher (although I would never put money on something higher than that).
As a result of all of this, both Barton and Sweeney could find themselves with vastly different performances than the James system projects for them in 2010.
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Nov 10, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you who are so wise in the ways of science?
…
Burn him as a witch!!!!
by Joey C. on Nov 12, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't it a tad early to be making team predictions just a few days after the WS?
Wouldn’t January be better? After, you know, most of the rosters have pretty much shaken down and become at least relatively stable?
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
by UncleLeo on Nov 11, 2009 12:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
They're individual player predictions, not team predictions.
If, say, Albert Pujols was traded to Oakland for Gregorio Petit, James would just insert the Pujols prediction he already calculated into Oakland, and the same for Petit.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 11, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Several people are combining them and spinning them into team predictions.
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
by UncleLeo on Nov 11, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this exercise is harmless
Consider that these team predictions can show holes that need to be addressed. Take the A’s for instance.
If the Bill James projections didn’t come out until January, then how would we (as A’s fans) know that the A’s have 3 #2 pitchers (Braden, Anderson, Mazzaro) moving into the offseason. Without this knowledge, all those calling for a “veteran rotation arm” in the offseason would look pretty stupid when Savior Vin Mazzaro put up a 3.88 FIP in his redshirt freshman season.
And obviously the A’s don’t need to look for a 3B since Chavez will be around for over half the season. By the 2nd half, Brett Wallace will be ready to take over with very similar production—just look at the projection!
[/sarcasm]
Let me gather my thoughts as I get back to the current time. It seems that time travel leaves the brain a little muddled (similar to waking up after 3 Coronas and 2 grayhounds).
As you can probably tell, I have a hard time putting too much credence into projection systems as it is.
However, if people want to use projection systems to predict team record, I don’t see a problem with it. It does allow people to look at holes in the team and see what type of player they should be championing as the big offseason acquisition as it allows 2010 player value to be predicted.
For example, Team A projects to win 85 games right now at the beginning of the offseason while targeting 93 wins in the 2010 season (meaning they need to find 8 wins this offseason).
Using these projections, they see 3 spots in the lineup that could be upgraded while the rotation looks fine.
Adding up the projected win value of these 3 soft spots, they get 5.5 wins. If the players acquired need to be 8 wins better than these 3, their total value needs to be 13.5 wins.
Now, it is up the excited fan to find those 3 players that add up to 13.5 wins or more and create an offseason guide to get Team A those 3 players and in the process the 93 wins that get Team A to the playoffs.
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Nov 12, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points!
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
by UncleLeo on Nov 13, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
@ Taj
Is Cust’s line really so crazy? I’m inclined to defer to your wisdom, but are we leaning too heavily on last season’s performance considering he had a good track record previously?
Another note: In my capacity as Raj Davis Suspicionmeister #1, I will say that if he gets on base at a league-average clip next season, I’ll be so ecstatic that I’ll sacrifice a pair of white baseball cleats in his name at the altar of the Great Rickey Henderzebub.
by Joey C. on Nov 12, 2009 4:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well, the 2010 CHONE projections are out.
At least, they are for hitters. They’re considerably less optimistic, unfortunately.
Kurt Suzuki: .272/.333/.404/.737 (wOBA: .327)
Daric Barton: .259/.364/.410/.774 (wOBA: .347)
Mark Ellis: .251/.314/.381/.695 (wOBA: .309)
Cliff Pennington: .247/.327/.347/.674 (wOBA: .306)
Eric Chavez: .239/.320/.397/.717 (wOBA: .318, 425 plate appearances, heh)
Brett Wallace: .250/.305/.385/.690 (wOBA: .305, 518 plate appearances)
Scott Hairston: .254/.310/.439/.749 (wOBA: .325)
Rajai Davis: .267/.326/.372/.698 (wOBA: .312, 31 SB)
Ryan Sweeney: .277/.342/.391/.733 (wOBA: .328)
Jack Cust: .231/.366/.430/.796 (wOBA: .355, 25 HR)
Yikes. The only hitters that project to be above average are Cust and Barton.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 15, 2009 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Guess we better release Cust to improve our offense.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Nov 15, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, they mostly look "right on"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 15, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and the source:
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/OAK2010.htm
In case you want to see it in all of its depressing glory.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 15, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With that wOBA and his defense Suzuki is an All Star caliber (4 WAR) player
Sweeney would be 2.5 WAR which is really good.
So not all depressing.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Nov 15, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And Brett Anderson will make one run stand up.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 15, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
These are park-adjusted, I assume
in which case Hairston is above average and Suzuki and Sweeney are right about average.
It’s not that bad, but it certainly confirms what I’ve been saying about Brett Wallace, which is that “starting him in April of next year” is an indescribably foolish concept. He’s nowhere near big-league ready.
It also confirms that Rajai Davis isn’t that good and should be traded if the A’s find the right opportunity, and that Cliff Pennington is a utility player and not a starting shortstop.
The only one that looks a bit low is Ellis.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 15, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's also a list of free agents
Look who turns up at a projected +2 runs: our old friend (and momentary Athletic) Jeff Fiorentino.
Interesting. He might be signable on a minor league deal or a cheap major league deal, yet could be a league-average outfielder. I stamp this with my Awesome Official Seal of Approval Awesomeness.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 16, 2009 12:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh -- the coveted AOSAA!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 16, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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