Hardy to Minnesota. What's with the early offseason trades?
by mikev on Nov 6, 2009 10:08 AM PST
116 comments
AN will have to find another shortstop to covet this offseason and come up with multiple trade scenarios for.
Hardy was dealt to the Twins for Carlos Gomez. I guess the Brewers will look elsewhere for pitching help, but the Michael Weurtz+ for Hardy deals won't happen now.
I'll put this out there, though: Would you have traded Rajai Davis for J.J. Hardy? Davis is probably better than Gomez, but older and doesn't have nearly as favorable of a contract situation. I would have, without thinking twice about it.
Also, like the Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh trade and the Jeremy Hermida to Boston trade, this seems to have happened very quickly (what, it's day 2 of the offseason!) before free agents have filed, nontenders, etc. Is this a sign of how the offseason is going to look? There have already been several articles (I'm not linking to Olney's ESPN Insider stuff, sorry) that claim a large number of guys will be nontendered creating a flood of non-superstar type players in the FA market. It's shaping up to be a strange offseason, huh?
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Wow
Yeah, jeez. Talk about quick.
It’s a little frustrating that the A’s couldn’t get in on any of these deals. I mean, I"m not the greatest fan of Hardy, but if the price was just Carlos Gomez… even if it would have taken Rajai Davis plus something, wouldn’t that still be a good idea?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 10:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's kinda the feeling.
The “reasonable” acquisitions are being acquired already. I’d be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn’t have jumped at the chance to have Iwamura and Hardy starting at 3B and SS in 2010 at the cost of, like, Jeff Gray and Rajai Davis.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 6, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly
And like PT said, I’d have even been willing to make it Rajaj plus another piece, like Mortensen, to get that deal done. Bottom line: no way the A’s couldn’t beat either one of those deals.
by CapgrasDelusion on Nov 6, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that
Word gets out before these trades you would think.
You would think Billy would know before hand in case another team could sweeten the deal
by Trainman on Nov 6, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the thing is
Gomez is under control until 2014 or something ridiculous like that. He also is a really good defensive CF who’s bat is going to translate a bit better in the NL. Hardy has no position in Milw and is in the last year of arby and they were trying to save money while replacing Mike Cameron in CF. Davis is in no way a better “deal” than Gomez, regardless of how much a better player he is than Gomez, as he will cost more and isnt under team control for as long.
You can add in the extra pieces but I still dont think the Brewers would take it. They’d take a young CF who’s under team control for a long time, and that’s what they got.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was a little higher on the possibility of getting Hardy
but he does have quite a few warts at this point and getting him isn’t really a make or break situation for the A’s. But to see him move for such a low price is frustrating, there are any number of packages the A’s could have put together that would be worth more than Carlos Gomez that I would’ve been happy to part with for a great defensive shortstop with some offensive upside.
by DiegoAsFan on Nov 6, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose one could still hope for Hardy to be flipped to Oakland,
with the established value set at “Carlos Gomez.” Are they looking at Hardy playing 3B, or are they looking at O-Cab playing 2B, or is O-Cab not coming back?
The A’s would be SO much better for 2010 if they had JJ Hardy at SS and one less “Carlos Gomez level” prospect/player in their system.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Forget about it
The Twins need three new infielders to replace the godawful current group. There’s no way they get one and then immediately flip him. He’s off the market.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
do you guys honestly think
Hardy’s bat is going to work in the AL? The NL→AL move is proving not a wise one in recent years. I see him as being a pretty big flop in the AL.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Especially if he came to Oakland
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Nov 6, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The "come to Oakland' is irrelevant
EVERYONE hits worse in Oakland. So unless a player uniquely hits a ton of foul pop flies, the fact that he’ll hit worse in Oakland doesn’t really have any meaning. That’s why they use park-adjusted metrics.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah an an otherwise mediocre hitter like JJ Hardy
would OPS like 690 here so who cares about him.
I think we need to hang onto any player who can hit here like grim death. Where Manny at again?
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure why you're saying "yeah" when your comment and Nico's are completely irreconcilable
[Nico has the better side of this argument, since the highly symmetrical Coliseum is basically an equal detriment to EVERY hitter.]
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But part of the Coliseum being
a pitcher’s park, right? So presumably it has more adverse affect on a hitter whose hitting style relies more on fouling off pitches.
I know that a lot of the park effect is just generic, but I wonder if that factor is asymmetrical in the same way that the left-right thing is in some other parks.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 6, 2009 9:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is no such hitter...
Someone did a study on fouling off pitches and concluded that it was essentially a matter of luck. In an individual at-bat it probably is not 100% luck, but the range of batter-pitcher matchups is such that it degenerates to complete randomness over the course of a season.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm, interesting.
I certainly wouldn’t have guessed that based on how fouling off pitches is usually discussed by the broadcasters in the course of a game.
But still, how about a hitter who makes a lot of contact vs an equally valuable player who takes more pitches? Wouldn’t it make sense that a TTO type player is hurt more by the fences being farther away but less by the foul territory?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 7, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On the field I don't think it means much, but...
…when a players needs those stats to get a bigger FA contract or arbitration award, I think it means the world to them.
In 2008 I was watching a team that was rebuilding. In 2009 I feel like I'm watching a team that just sucks.
by UncleLeo on Nov 6, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy this
I think agents and GMs are saavier thatn this.
by Future Ed on Nov 6, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think either side uses whatever spin they can to get as much or pay as little as possible.
In 2008 I was watching a team that was rebuilding. In 2009 I feel like I'm watching a team that just sucks.
by UncleLeo on Nov 6, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
EVERYONE (all caps)?
not to nitpick or anything, but I’ll bet we can find examples of players who hit better when they were traded to Oakland.
I would agree that players coming from hitters’ parks might not hit as well in Oakland (or SF, or SD, or several other pitchers’ parks). Also many (but not all) NL hitters will struggle in Oakland and elsewhere in the AL.
by OaklandSi on Nov 6, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I blame Stomper.
"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 7, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you have to think park effects though
Nick Swisher is handsome.
by ChrisCEIT on Nov 8, 2009 1:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this definitely came out of nowhere.
In (somewhat) related news, Beane told Urban yesterday regarding the A’s offseason strategy:
“I think patience is the plan this winter.”
I think that kind of indicates that Beane is going to be fairly passive in terms of his moves in the first few months and wait for the market to establish itself. He’s probably betting that a lot of somewhat useful guys will be non-tendered and other free agent will eventually have to settle for team-friendly deals in order to play in 2010.
Not a terrible strategy, in my opinion, but with a lot of teams seeming to aggressively shop talented players that they don’t necessarily want to pay or have an immediate need for (aka Hardy/Hermida) you’d think that Beane the wheeler-dealer would want to be involved with this activity…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Nov 6, 2009 10:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
"Scrap Heap FA's"
whats new lol every season
Th only exception was last yr, even then its not like furcal, giambi, and RJ didnt have age/injury issues which influenced their market. Who’s the next loaiza, thomas, piazza of 2010
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Beane feels that the A's have the big needs this offseason as they did last year.
From the interviews and articles I get the feeling that he is happy with Pennington at SS for this year and will let him play til Greene comes up.
I also think they have some faith in Chevas and are willing to use someone like Kennedy till Wallace comes up in a few months.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Nov 6, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
we do have a big need
for someone who can play third base. I would feel better even with just a Hannahan level player. Just something so that Oakland will let Wallace do whatever is best for his development and not let their handling of him get driven by the need to put someone next to “3b” on the Oakland lineup card.
by colin on Nov 6, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Having a Hannahan type glove at 3B would be great, but
this team can’t afford to absorb another inefficient bat in our already powerless lineup.
by sf drift king on Nov 6, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I got sort of excited about Crede yesterday
before I saw that he is considering retirement on account of his back. If a guy going into his age 32 season is considering retirement, it must be really bad.
by colin on Nov 6, 2009 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
where did you read that? As of 4 days ago he was recovering from surgery and was excited about playing in 2010, but he wasnt sure where
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't,
“As of 4 days ago he was recovering from surgery and was excited about p”laying in 2010" apply to Eric Chavez too?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well, maybe
That’s why Im a fan of the platoon idea. Instead of 20-30 games of Chavez playing everyday, we might get twice that.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
where I read it
an older rotoworld post. So your information is good to have, and maybe makes me slightly more optimistic about him than I was a few minutes ago. But what Nico says is still true…
by colin on Nov 6, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crede had two back surgeries, both like Chavez had
Bad idea.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Nov 6, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How many injury prone, back surgery thirdbasemen does it take to get through a full season?
Couldn’t we just start with Chavez while simultaneously getting Crede and Glaus and then finishing out with Wallace. Roster/Money inefficiencies aside, I feel as though that’s a GREAT plan…not.
Let’s let Chavvy play his ten games, then either plug in utility boy #1 or let Wallace do some dirty deeds in the bigs.
"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 7, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The answer is 3
Two who have had the surgeries and one who hasn’t.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Nov 7, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And what, exactly...
…has happened in the past three years to justify said faith in Chavez returning? Just curious.
Presuming Beane really does feel that way, of course.
In 2008 I was watching a team that was rebuilding. In 2009 I feel like I'm watching a team that just sucks.
by UncleLeo on Nov 6, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing someone like Troy Glaus
might be the direction Beane would go at third base (or dare we say Figgins? – imagine Davis and Figgins at the top of the A’s lineup). And I agree that it looks like Billy is going to give Pennington the shot. You just have to think that Beane is considering just going with full youth this year as last season the patchwork vets didn’t work out at all.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Nov 6, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I could definitely see that as the main strategy, Blez.
From all the interactions we’ve read between you and Beane and Beane and the media, it certainly seems like he’s very content with opening 2010 with the team as it is currently constituted.
I foresee him really take his time with any potential free agents – including his own, like Kennedy and Duke.
I think he’ll wait out the non-tender deadline and see if he can grab some low-hanging fruit that would represent a modest upgrade at a position of need.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me...
…that Beane makes a decision at the start of the off-season whether to pursue free agents early (as he did with Loaiza) before prices escalate, or late, if prices take a nosedive. Last year he waited, and this year he can afford to wait.
I don’t see anybody - Duke and Kennedy included - signing with the A’s until some of the dust clears. Which is why it’s premature at this point to talk about names, any names. Everything depends upon who’s around in February. And if nobody is, the A’s have a couple of extra bodies in the bullpen and can pull off a trade.
by richwol1 on Nov 6, 2009 5:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't wait last year
He traded for Holliday very early in the offseason, before it became clear that there were far more left fielders than the market could bear and some of them would come very cheaply.
The A’s basically spent the rest of last offseason trying to undo the damage that mistake caused.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If i was a Brewers fan I think I would puke. Awful awful deal for the Brewers.
Just awful. I am surprised we couldn’t have beaten that.
by DeJay on Nov 6, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Aki deal was worse.
Sock puppets have never been able to successfully attack castles. -Nevermoor
by Leopold Bloom on Nov 6, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
God damn!
Hardy would have been such a good fit. Iwamura too. And now they both have been moved for subpar packages! I’m really disappointed right now.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 6, 2009 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Good I'm somewhat happy
I wanted to see what pennington can do, which I assume most of you strongly disagree with.
by Twan54321 on Nov 6, 2009 12:32 PM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
not I
Im a Pennington fan, I think he can hold it down and hit pretty well, he was a really good prospect not so long ago, and sometimes that final hurdle blocking a player from being a capable big league regular can take an extra year or two to be worked out, and I think Pennington is past that point now and is “ready”.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad you agree
And he will be better than that other SS we had.
What more could you wish for!!
by Twan54321 on Nov 6, 2009 1:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
A really good prospect?!
Pennington was seen as a legitimate first rounder. Since then, his stock has merely gone down. You know what his MLE OPS in the minors was THIS year? .587. A fluke? Last year it was .594. The dude hit 18 HRs in 2133 minor league PAs. That’s 119 PAs for every HR. The two times in his minor league career he put up an OPS above .725 was in the hitting paradise of the CAL league and 2008 when he put up a BABIP 35 points higher than his career BABIP. Oh, and that OPS was based on a .130 differential between OBP and AVG. Guys who hit HRs every 119 PAs can’t sustain that at AAA, let alone the majors. And that was shown in 2009. Same level, more PAs, and his BABIP dropped to 8 points below his career, his OBP-AVG dropped to a more reasonable though very good .084, and his OPS dropped to .702. Did I mention this is in the PCL where teams consistently average an .800 OPS?
In fact, the only reason someone could imagine Pennington could produce at the big league level is his major league performance in 2009. And guess what his BABIP was in the majors? .342, 37 points higher than his BABIP in the minors. Normalize his BABIP to his career minor league BABIP and his BA drops to .250. His OBP drops to .316. His SLG drops to .385. Oh yeah, Pennington also hit HRs at a rate of 1 per 57 PAs. Change that to his minor league average of about 1 per 119. Let’s assume that the extra HRs become caught fly balls. His slugging becomes .346. Now you’re looking at a .250/.316/.346/.662 line, merely by normalizing his major league BABIP and HR rate. And that’s still a huge improvement from what his AAA lines the last two years would predict! Those AAA lines included 686 PAs. His major league line consisted of 229. Which is a better predictor? You decide.
I really wish Pennington could produce a league average SS. But frankly, I don’t see it.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 6, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Hey, it only took 430 PAs for Rajai Davis to convince everybody that he's a good player all of a sudden.
Why should Pennington be any different?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 6, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
my point
sometimes that final hurdle blocking a player from being a capable big league regular can take an extra year or two to be worked out
was missed.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Let’s play a very crappy player at the big league level for a year or two on the hopes that if we give him playing time he’ll improve into a better player. It worked with Bobby Crosby, right?
Or did you mean that by the time Pennington was called up in 2009 he had already jumped that final hurtle? Because I see no evidence that he has the ability to jump it. His stats certainly don’t support the theory.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 6, 2009 4:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is one thing in Pennington's favor
which is that a bunch of those crappy minor league numbers were compiled in seasons where he was questionably healthy (basically 2006 and 2007).
That being said, it also suggests that it would be a very bad idea for the A’s to enter a season without a backup plan to him, because if the injuries recur…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
I agree a backup plan would be nice, but it would have to be a player who would be fine the role, getting Alex Gonzalez wouldnt work. How about Omar Vizquel?
Beane’s strong suit is finding backup plans though (Scutaro, Hannahan), so its not something to worry about until Pennington is playing horribly for the first 3 months of the year.
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 12:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about all that.....
But what I do know is that I’m suddenly in need of a MLB SS to start hating on. Seems my old one has disappeared.
To soon?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Nov 9, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Too soon?
You’re about two years too late with the hate.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Nov 9, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no....
I’ve hated BC with a passion, so much so that I feel strange not having an A’s shortstop with those initials to cast my loathing upon.
I’m sure that I could grow to hate Pennington next season.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Nov 9, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't set limits on yourself
Buck the trend and develop non-love for the unicorn or maybe start a “Zooks for Zippity Squat” trade thread. Brett Anderson throws left handed… obviously he’s in league with the Devil! Start telling folks that Brad Ziegler wrote Moneyball and that… well…
shit, run outa good players.
Damn you Billy Beane!!!!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Nov 9, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You "dont see it"
because youre too busy norminalizing babip (a flawed stat when dealing with hitters without a lot of power), regurgitating numbers that are available to everyone and using ridiculous predictors based off injured minor league seasons to actually see what kind of player were dealing with here.
How on earth did this mess of a post get rec’d? Is that all that impresses people around here? Blindly posting stats without any note of WHY they are the way they are? Look deeper people, the numbers are nice to have but trying to predict a player like Pennington as of right now, is completely ridiculous. He played hurt for long stretches in his minor league career but he has a great eye, walks a ton, hits for average and can steal a base. Most importantly he plays SS, and is cheap.
Look, he had a nice 60 game stint last year, and thats ALWAYS a better indicator than minor league numbers. Sure, thats not enough to sign him to a long term deal or to pencil him in as our SS for the next 10 years, but it IS enough to warrant making him the starting SS for the first 3 or 4 months of 2010. We gave Barton that chance, Pennington deserves the same.
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 12:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Reading this made me want to go up to vignette's post and rec it.
Then I realized I already did.
So, first off, how is “norminalizing” BABIP a bad thing? And, for that matter, I wasn’t aware that “regurgitating numbers that are available to everyone” makes for a poor argument. Should he have ignored the readily available stats for secretive, elusive stats? And no, 60 games in the majors isn’t a better indicator of talent than four whole minor league seasons. The reason we gave Barton that second chance was that he had a huge minor league track record, something that Pennington does not. There’s not much that Pennington showed in the minors that supports a successful big league career.
That mess of a post got rec’d because it’s a damned good one. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to blindly post stats.
.370/1.325/7.283 WAR .32 20000.318 tOPS+ .243 48.92 VORP
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 9, 2009 1:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's Albert Pujols' line from last year.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 9, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
at what point do you decide to not read what I wrote?
Its it 3 words? 12? do you even make it though a sentence? or do you just have something personal against me and rec any argument, no matter how illogical, made against a valid point I have that doesnt mesh with what you read at fangraphs? Im starting to think its the latter….
Pennington was hurt for large amounts of times over the last few years. He even said himself that he felt fully healthy for the 1st time in a very long time this year. THIS IS IMPORTANT.
babip is a FLAWED stat, especially when dealing with hitters who’s main way of getting on base is a slap single. Juan Pierre always is over .300, Ichiro is always way high, and what kind of hitter is Pennington again? Oh yeah, one of those. Hence “normalizing” the stat that isnt normal isnt a smart thing to do.
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
normalizing BABIP
It sounds like you are mistaken about what vignette did. It is true that some hitters have better BABIP than others (Ichiro being one of the best examples). But vignette just calculated what would happen if Pennington reverted to his own career BABIP. Unless you think that Major League fielders are significantly worse than the ones in the Minors, this is a pretty reasonable expectation.
Now, you have also pointed out that Pennington was playing hurt for a couple of minor league seasons. This is a legitimate point (and could maybe even explain low BABIP, if he was slowed down). But I doubt that any of us know how to correct our predictions for that fact. The point still stands that there are good reasons for pessimism with Pennington.
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Colin's got the right idea about normalizing BABIP.
Look, PL78, I don’t have some kind of personal vendetta against you. But I’m tired of seeing you misunderstand someone’s argument, then lash out against it. Let’s just cut out the bad mouthing and condescension until we’re sure we understand the argument, shall we?
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 9, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just curious
Did you literally close your eyes and type that?
Because that would be really awesome if true.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
My fingers naturally rest on the keyboard over the tOPS+ keys.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
by danmerqury on Nov 9, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Keys?
I thought there was a “tOPS+” key. So what have I been typing all these years? Oh that’s an ampersand? What a silly word.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 9, 2009 4:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, it most certainly is not.
Look, he had a nice 60 game stint last year, and thats ALWAYS a better indicator than minor league numbers.
That’s completely false.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 9, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
really? really????
That’s completely false.
“Completely” false? Okay if it was totally false why is the franchise penciling him in at SS already? Do you people know that the big league is more important than the minors right? i know we are rebuilding internally so we all love our prospects and love to circle jerk over what theyre doing at NOTtheshow, but hitting at the big league level is WAY more important than some skewed-due-to-playing-hurt minor league numbers.
Youkilis never hit more than 8 HR in the minors, now he’s a lock for 25-30 HR each year. Players CAN develop at the big league level. Minor league “predictor” stats used on players who are starting out in the bigs is just not a concept I can get behind. Theyre fine for established players but theres just too much variance and unknown qualities for young players just starting out. Pennington needs and deserves to be our opening day SS and why he will be, despite whatever argument based off flawed stats and skewed playing time you can come up with.
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You just made the argument
Why is the franchise penciling him in at SS already?
People have been against him being SS. Perhaps the A’s feel they can improve at different positions easier than they can at SS. I may disagree, but that’s a valid explanation for leaving him there. He is cheap.
Theres just too much variance and unknown qualities for young players just starting out.
This is exactly why one should use the LARGEST sample size possible. This means minor league stats.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They're penciling him in because there are no better internal options
and the free agent options all suck.
I forgot, though, you somehow either don’t know or refuse to admit what the concept of Small Sample Size is.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 9, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pennington has SSSSS...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What you did there
I sees it.
They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!
by muffinpryde on Nov 9, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Tasty Cakes, completely false.
Mike has it right. You wrote “always”. You even capitalized it to assure us you really meant it and weren’t just being careless.
When you say something is “always” better, only one instance where it is not is all that is logically required for your statement to be “completely false”.
Studies have shown that large samples of minor league stats are often more predictive than smaller samples of major league stats. It’s not better 100% of the time, but it’s better much more than 0% of the time, and 0% is what you are asserting when you say the major league record is ALWAYS better.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 9, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I take offense to this
Players who had a BABIP at .342 or just above: Nick Johnson, Magglio Ordonez, Bobby Abreu, Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, and Miguel Cabrera. Those guys all have no power, right? There’s also Scott Podsednik and Skip Schumaker, so maybe Pennington can keep it up. I’m more inclined to believe he’ll regress to the mean than he’ll keep it up.
There’s exceptions to every rule. Don’t rely on these exceptions. Oh, and by the way, Kevin Youkilis is one of them.
As for Pennington’s average he’s hit over .265 TWICE in his career. Once last year at the majors (in the minors he hit under .265) and once in 2008 at AAA. The same year, he hit less than that at AA. Both of those years were fueled by .340+ BABIPs. So, every other time he failed to BABIP that high and failed to hit for a .265+ average were because he was injured? How on earth is a proclivity for injuries and still playing through them a good thing?!
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is not surprising when one considers that power and BABIP are positively correlated
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Surprised?
Beane is nothing if not loyal. He is giving Chavez one last chance at health and if it doesn’t work out, he’s going to have him mentor Wallace. OR he will resign Kennedy. I think this deal and the Iwamura deal were made way earlier.
"I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way." -Jessica Rabbit
by A'sfansince1970 on Nov 6, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the stove is BLAZING!!
I for one, love that we dont have to think about how great the Yankees are and can immediately get into the more interesting business of the hot stove season.
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:51 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
This!
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Nov 6, 2009 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes ive heard people say the "not trading within the division" thing is a myth
well, its true with the brewers…
by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 1:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
They're worried about making the Reds better?
Is it 1975 already?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
reds playoffs 2 times since 1980
are they really worried about hardy putting them over the top
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Where's the love??
No love for Pennington? Pennington does everything asked and doesn’t do anything that is awesome but he is a better player than many of you think he is. If he can give us the 260/340/750 than he will be better than what we have had the last 3 years. Not saying much but Pennington will be serviceable next year.
by Arcman on Nov 6, 2009 3:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The lack of love is the likeihood he'll actually hit more like
.220/.290/.350.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
some might actually take that lol
crosby
.637
.619
.645
.652
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Win totals for A's starting SS since 2005:
2006: 0.3
2007: 0.3
2008: 1.1
2009: 0.2
Hardy, meanwhile, accrued 1.4 wins during a season in which he “fell off a cliff.” As far as Pennington’s bat goes, I seem to remember people thinking Jack Hannahan and Donnie Murphy could hit following the ’07 season.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
by Aufheben on Nov 6, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
at least Jackahan and Murphy had good numbers in AAA
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Nov 6, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not those numbers
Thats BC numbers. 260 is not asking much but the 320 OBA is pushing it and the 750 is pusing it a lot. Pennington could be a good doubles hittter and his defense is above what we hav had. It probably doesn’t matter much since Green will move Pennington to third in 2011.
by Arcman on Nov 6, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pennington will NOT be the A's 3Bman in 2011
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He will move to 3Bman
behind the other 2 B(ench) men we have.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Nov 6, 2009 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pennington future
Pennington will be scutaro jr for the A’s in the future. He will be their super utility guy playing 2b, SS, and 3b. 2009 the starting SS but when the other prospects come up he will be their sub.
by Arcman on Nov 6, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow... the Royals screwed the White Sox didn't they?
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Nov 6, 2009 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So... Yunel Escobar it is then, right?
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
by Aufheben on Nov 6, 2009 6:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Where do they come up with this speculation
by Trainman on Nov 6, 2009 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
OK
On reading it it is only Heyman throwing shit against the wall.
by Trainman on Nov 6, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Talk about a straw man
“Lackey is a free agent, the A’s are a baseball team. Lackey probably won;t be interested in the A’s so there is likely nothing to talk about.”
by Future Ed on Nov 6, 2009 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
10 mil/year for chone?
No f-ing way, man. He would be great and all, but he’s not worth that much when we have the One True Rajai.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Nov 6, 2009 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree with you 100% cuppingmaster
Actually, I like the idea of bringing back JD to Oakland for 1 year + a team option for 2011. Why not? He can still hit the piss out of the ball and he could DH and play RF. I seriously think the A’s should explore bringing him back before they entertain any thought of signing someone like Vlad.
I would not be opposed to signing Glaus to a similar deal as well…..the A’s could do a lot worse than to sign both of those guys. And of course………I want to bring The Duke back for one more go around……
Go A’s!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Nov 8, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Its weird how people dont take into consideration
rebound/improve rate. There’s a line in there that Oakland needs more offense from its corner OFers….well is there anyone out there who doesnt think Cust/Hairston in LF and Sweeney in RF will put up better numbers next year than they did this year? I think its obvious that all 3 will. Cust’s second half, Hairston not being injured and Sweeney developing a power stroke in the offseason are all things Id bank on over signing SadVlad or some other brokedown/final year of career type.
Im almost willing to put money on all 3 throwing up an OPS of 775+ each. Its not that far fetched an idea.
by PL78 on Nov 7, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you're serious
I’d take that .775 bet. Why will Sweeney develop a power stroke again? Sure, it would be great, but people have been expected power to develop for years. It never has.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 7, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's only 25?
Why will Sweeney develop a power stroke again?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 8, 2009 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take the bet, too, Tasty Cakes.
Any time your bet depends on multiple conditions, the numbers turn against you.
The likelihood would have to be 79.5% for each of them individually to make OPS 775+ in order for you to have 50% chance that all three would.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 7, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, even if the idea isn't far-fetched
it’s not exactly near-fetched either.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 7, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Been listening to George Carlin again? LOL!
In 2008 I was watching a team that was rebuilding. In 2009 I feel like I'm watching a team that just sucks.
by UncleLeo on Nov 7, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
note my language
I did say I “almost” would take that bet.
by PL78 on Nov 9, 2009 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We noticed the language
Or at least I did since I can’t speak for iglew. I just saw a bet that was so insane that I’d almost feel guilty about taking your money. Oh excuse me, ALMOST bet. And this is coming from a guy who really bet every Giants fan he knew that the A’s would have a better record in 2006 than the Giants.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 9, 2009 1:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Darn. I "almost" had a good shot
at taking your money.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 9, 2009 1:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You think you feel bad
I “almost” had a chance with Salma Hayek!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Nov 9, 2009 6:46 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
RALLY SALMA.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Nov 9, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nice
Also, while rec’ing grover’s comment, I discovered that AN now lets you unrec comments. You know, in case you liked it when it was white, but hate it ever since it turned green.
by colin on Nov 9, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Unrec has been available for as long as I can remember.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 9, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"A house is a plce where you keep all of your stuff..."
:}/
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Nov 8, 2009 1:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Miguel Tejada solves all are problems...
The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby
by MMunoz33 on Nov 9, 2009 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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