Community Prospect List #15
by Zonis on Nov 5, 2009 6:55 PM PST
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PrintDue to demand, I have removed much of the introductory text from the threads, as well as the stats for those whom have been voted onto the list already, in order to make it easier for people to scroll all the way down.
If you have any cases for prospects, keep them coming!
For Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.
Prospects up for Vote:
Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B STO (oak) A+ 26 .220 .304 .330 1 8 2 14 4 KAN (oak) A 93 .254 .345 .410 8 42 18 56 22
Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39 STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48
James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP SAC (oak) AAA 23 7-7 5.72 119.2 139 47 81 0 1.55
Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 1 0-1 16.20 76.2 5 4 1 0 2.70 STO (oak) A+ 21 5-4 3.52 3.1 64 32 111 1 1.25
Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP STO (oak) A+ 9 2-2 3.12 52 42 21 67 0 1.21 KAN (oak) A 18 4-7 3.24 100 70 40 103 0 1.10
Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09 SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48
Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP OAK MLB 11 1-0 0.53 17.0 10 4 10 0 0.82 SAC (oak) AAA 45 4-2 2.13 63.1 40 24 77 2 1.01
Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP SAC (oak) AAA 37 2-1 5.77 43.2 38 38 71 4 1.74 STO (oak) A+ 3 0-0 0.00 5 3 1 11 0 0.80
The List Thus Far
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video
3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video
4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video
5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - Video - OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme
6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - Video
7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson
8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - Video
9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - Video
10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - Video
11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8)
12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - Cal Sports Profile Video
13. Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23 - 34% (of 8)
14. Max Stassi, C, Age 18 - 45% (of 8)
Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order): Mattl Sulentic, OF Anthony Recker, C Shane Peterson, OF Alex Valdez Travis Banwart, SP Matt Spencer, OF Gregorio Petit, SS Graham Godfrey, SP Robin Rosario, OF Tommy Everidge, 1B Clayton Mortensen, SP Ronny Morla, SP Wilfredo Solano Joel Galarraga, C Nino Leyja, 2B Paul Smyth Conner Crumbliss Pedro Figueroade, SP Rashun Dixon, CF Julio Ramos Daniel Straily James Simmons, SP Ian Krol, SP Yusuf Carter Ryan Ortiz, SP Brett Hunter, SP Anthony Huttenlocker Carlos Hernandez, SP Ben Hornbeck, SP Reynaldo Mateo Tyler Ladendorff Shawn Haviland, SP Mickey Storey, SP Chris Mederos Jon Meloan Josh Horton, SS Conner Hoehn Corey Wimberly, UTL Dan Thomas Josh Leyland, C Justin Souza Andrew Carignan, RP Jermaine Mitchell, CF Jared Lansford, RP Justin Marks Jason Christian, 3B
If you have a prospect you want to suggest, from this list or not on it, speak up in comments!
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Comments
Ryan Ortiz
List needs more position players.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'd love to hear more about Ortiz.
I’m still intrigued by Matt Spencer, too.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Parker and Spina
Could you add Stephen Parker and Michael Spina to the list of Upcoming Potential Prospects? Parker earned a 5th round selection this year and Spina is intriguing for his power potential.
They may not make it on the list anytime soon but I think it would be unfortunate if they were forgotten.
If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com
by youdownwithOBP on Nov 11, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting Note
Jim Callis said in his chat Wednesday that Green is the A’s top prospect
by OaklandAsDieHard on Nov 5, 2009 7:22 PM PST reply actions
Yeah that seems a bit strange
Is Callis saying that Green is a top 50 prospect which seems a stretch. Or is he saying that Carter and Wallace are not top 50 prospects, which seems an even bigger stretch.
I stopped taking anything Jim Callis said in a chat seriously years ago
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Then I have to presume
That the innings are switched around for Hornbeck, because, frankly, 111 strikeouts in 3.1 inning IS ridiculous. So is 4 in 76 innings.
by mikedaviswhereareyou on Nov 5, 2009 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
the Catcher must be absolutely incompetent in order to get 111 Ks in 3.1 innings.
I suppose the manager would be too to keep him in there too.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Still going with Capra
He’s a solid college lefty with a track record of success as an amateur that has continued into his pro career. Good K-rate, great change-up and has been healthy.
With ya
Capra’s the best on this list IMO.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Ditto
fifth straight round.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Nov 5, 2009 8:56 PM PST up reply actions
same
I can’t believe he hasnt been voted in yet. does anyone have an idea of why wasn’t in the top 10?
I've been voting for a while but I don't think he is top 10
I think the main concern is that college guys with poise and the ability to change speeds can make low minors hitters look silly but hit a wall as they move up. I wouldn’t put him above a lot of the hitters the A’s have in the high minors, but at this point I will take the chance that he can continue to strike people out even if I am worried about his walk rate.
Why Capra wasn't in the top 10:
(1) We’ve got a lot of really good guys in our system, so they ate up the top spots.
(2) Untested in AA.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I went with Capra last round
but now I’m having trouble telling him and Hornbeck apart. They both are sitting around 3 K/BB, and WHIPs around 1.2 in Stockton, which sounds pretty good to me.
Why shouldn’t I give the edge to Hornbeck, who logged more innings in A+? Capra’s numbers in Kane County are great, but that’s a pitchers league, so I’m more inclined to just look at their Stockton numbers side by side and ignore everything else.
I guess a scouting report would be helpful here…
I still think Capra is a notch above
Capra was considered a much better prospect coming out of the draft though Hornbeck has added some velocity which probably closes the gap quite a bit. Even after Hornbeck’s improvement I still think that Capra is a notch or two above him in fastball velocity. Although it doesn’t sound like much the difference between 90-92 mph and 88-90 mph does have some significance.
Both are said to have great change-ups and I’ve heard some scouting reports suggest that Hornbeck’s is a tick better but there hasn’t been much said about their breaking balls. I have heard a few reports that Capra has an average curveball with the potential to be better but no reports on what Hornbeck is working with. It’s not conclusive evidence but I would give Capra the edge in secondary stuff.
To me that equals slightly better fastball for Capra, slightly better secondary stuff, and Capra threw more innings last season which makes him more ready to handle a big league work load should he make it to that level. Both are interesting pitchers at this point on the list but I think Capra is just a bit better bet right now.
thanks for the info
I’m going to stick with Capra for now. Their Stockton lines are so similar that I have no problem using fastball velocity or draft position as a tie-breaker.
TWSS
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Nov 5, 2009 8:56 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"Never date a LOOGY"
-A Frustrated Woman
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Still voting for Coleman
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I could probably strike Coleman out on the right day
Kind of picking the low-hanging fruit there, n’est ce pas?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well I've been voting for Capra for a while
I’m casting a wide net to get the vote out for him. Maybe snarky little comments with very little merit will be the ticket to get him on the list.
+1
After voting in sync with the community for the last 4, I have a feeling I’ll be voting for the second place finisher this time. Coleman gets the nod for me, although Capra would be next. (And then Hornbeck).
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Capra vs Hornbeck
I’d be interested in a comparison of scouting reports between both pitchers. I read Hornbeck with a lower arm slot, added velocity since being drafted which explains some of the improvements. Also at 6’5" there might be room for projectability.
Jeez, you're right
He’s almost as gangly as Blevins is.
That definitely closes the gap between him and Capra, maybe not all the way, but they’re now neck and neck (no pun intended) in my mind.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'd like to see that too
I have Hornbeck lower down my list, mainly because of his draft position, but if there are reports of his stuff having improved since he was drafted then I would be willing to move him up.
There's no doubt he's made massive improvements since draft day
He was throwing like 81 when the A’s got him. No surprise he went in the 32nd round.
Now he’s high-80s.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
FWIW, My top 15 prospects
1) Brett Wallace
2) Chris Carter
I think Wallace is further ahead with the glove than Carter is with the bat.
3) Adrian Cardenas
I think his performance given his age/level is generally underrated, but he’s still solidly behind Carter and Wallace.
4) Grant Green
5) Michael Ynoa
The scouting reports are glowing, the bonus is historically high, and bumps along the way were to be expected.
6) Jemile Weeks
He’s a good prospect, but Green seems to be better with both the bat and the glove.
7) Max Stassi
The pre-draft rankings and reports, the signing bonus, and holding his own in the Northwest League (sss) straight out of high school are all impressive feats.
8) Corey Brown
9) Grant Desme
Desme’s a tough one to judge given all his missed time, but I think Brown has a bit of an edge with the glove and is at least equal with the bat.
10) Tyson Ross
The talent and performance combine to put him ahead of the glut of mediocre SP in the system.
11) Sean Doolittle
I’ve never been all that high on him, but the scouting reports following the AFL last year and his brief performance in AAA are points in his favor.
12) James Simmons
His down year was still good for a 3.99 FIP in AAA as a 22 year old.
13) Josh Donaldson
His bat doesn’t look like it’ll play anywhere besides catcher, and no one seems too confident he can stick behind the plate. If he does remain a catcher, his bat is still more ordinary than exciting.
14) Fautino de los Santos
Stuff, potential, and the relative ordinariness of elbow injuries.
15) Arnold Leon
The performance given age and level is quite impressive, and he seems to have the stuff to be a SP (low 90s FB, slider, change)
Notes:
Capra and Hornbeck both put up great numbers, but I’m wary of pitchers who carve up A ball with FBs averaging below 90 MPH. I’d be less wary if the scouts really liked one of them. Think Brad Knox.
Figueroa demands attention just because of the BA league rankings, but I haven’t seen that type of praise elsewhere. Solano is also interesting, but I don’t know much about him.
I’d probably put Justin Marks 16th. Ortiz and Krol are also on the radar.
Coleman’s a tough call because 1) he’s likely not as good as he showed before the wrist injury, and 2) we have no idea how much the wrist injury is responsible for his awful remainder of the season.
I like this list a lot
but I’m not sure what you meant by “I think Wallace is further ahead with the glove than Carter is with the bat”. Wallace’s D > Carter’s O?
Sorry, should have been clearer
I think Wallace’s advantage over Carter in the field is greater than Carter’s advantage over Wallace with the bat. Carter’s been the better hitter this far, but the scouts still seem to like Wallace’s bat at least as much. Meanwhile, everyone seems in agreement that Wallace is a more valuable defensive player than Carter.
This is an excellent list
I would say that the complaints about Capra and Hornbeck apply just as well to Marks, who has not carved up A ball and is very unlikely to do so to the extent those two have. You might also be wary of Simmons’s poor fastball, especially since he is a RHP. And there is really very very little to like about Simmons’s performance last year. His FIP is semi-respectable only due to the HR component, and I don’t think anyone really thinks that is an actual skill he has. 15% K-rate and 8% BB-rate is not any good.
Q: do you contribute to making the scout.com list?
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Fair points
I may be leaning too strongly on BA’s pre-draft assessment of Marks, but this sounds like a much more likely profile for a SP than what I’ve read about Capra and Hornbeck:
Marks doesn’t have an overpowering pitch but he’s a lefty with command of four solid offerings: a lively 90-92 mph fastball, a slider, a downer curveball and a changeup.
As for Simmons, his poorer performance in 2009 and lack of FB velocity are why he’s not in my top 10. His performance in 2007 and 2008 was really good given his age/level, and I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt to sub-90MPH guys who have shown success in the high minors. Didn’t he also have an illness or minor injury that sent him to the DL? But, yeah, I’m probably a bit too high on him.
marks vs mike minor #7 overall pick, doesnt see much different
Still, Minor doesn’t have a true plus pitch beyond his changeup and his fastball usually operates in the upper 80s. His realistic ceiling is as a No. 3 starter, it’s easier to project him as a No. 4 and it’s not difficult to draw parallels between him and another Vanderbilt finesse lefthander who was a top-10 choice, Jeremy Sowers.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/269099.html
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Way too much deference to signing bonuses here
Not to say it shouldn’t be taken into account at all, but guys who have never played pro ball at all are so much more likely to fail to live up to predraft hype that you have to discount for that risk.
Pedro Figueroa did at least get written up in Sickels’ book last season (albeit as one of those “Grade C with upside” types), so his season did not come completely out of nowhere.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Can you be more specific?
Who do you think I’m overrating/underrating due to bonuses?
Not to say it shouldn’t be taken into account at all, but guys who have never played pro ball at all are so much more likely to fail to live up to predraft hype that you have to discount for that risk.
I have no idea what this means. So much more likely to fail to live up to the hype than whom?
Green, Ynoa, Stassi
There’s no doubt that predraft, they were thought of as superior prospects to what was thought of an Anthony Capra or a Sean Doolittle (or even a Chris Carter, for that matter).
But… those guys have survived the Darwinian winnowing process in the minor leagues so far. Green/Stassi/Ynoa have not. A year from now, I’ll rank them significantly higher if they have done well. But so far, they’re total wildcards. The odds of them being complete busts are still enormous.
To answer your second question: so much more likely to fail to live up to the hype than players with similar or slightly worse predraft scouting reports and reasonable performance in a decent amount of minor league playing time (1 year or so).
Finally, and this is an unrelated point, Stassi in particular is a member of a highly suspect class of players (HS catcher) so that even if he is considered a “first-round talent” within that class, it’s not clear to me that that amounts to more than a third or fourth round talent overall.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I don't think they're "total wildcards"
And I don’t think I’m ignoring the risks of prospects turning into busts. Rather, I try to look at what reasonable expectations are for each player and what the chances of them reaching those expectations are.
Grant Green, for example, could turn out to be a complete bust. But I think he’s likely to have a better first full year than Weeks did. He was more highly regarded than Weeks as an amateur, and he’s more highly regarded than Weeks now. And, of course, Weeks could turn out to be a complete bust as well. It’s not as if there’s a bigger hurdle between amateur ball and A ball than there is between A ball and the majors. Both players still have a long way to go.
With Ynoa, I can understand why opinions of him diverge so greatly. He’s described by scouts as a once in a generation type talent, but he’s also extremely far from the majors. If one was looking solely at upside and refusing to discount risk, he’d be an easy #1 on the list. I think slotting him at #5 is a nice compromise.
On a side note regarding Ynoa and putting too much stock into signing bonuses, I seem to remember you trying to knock Ynoa down a prospect list based on his signing bonus. If one is going to take his bonus into account, it can only be seen as a positive. His bonus—taken by itself—indicates that he’s one of the best prospects to ever come out of Latin America, an area that has been quite fertile in producing major leaguers.
As for Stassi, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t consider him a first round talent, or why you’d put scare quotes around the term. Baseball America and other scouts see him as a first round talent, as do the A’s. I’ve read studies about high school catchers generally not being a good bet in the draft before, but I haven’t seen any studies that any catcher taken in the first round should be considered a 3rd/4th round talent. The pool of players in those studies is small enough and dated enough that I wouldn’t feel comfortable applying any major adjustment to an individual player based solely on that data. Baseball America rated him as the best pure high school hitter in the 2009 draft class, and they wrote of his defense “scouts agree that Stassi should have no difficulty remaining behind the plate.” That sounds like a helluva prospect to me.
And if you’re overly concerned with highly suspect classes of players, you should be quite wary of starting pitchers with high-80s fastballs who haven’t yet been tested in the high minors.
by Danny on Nov 6, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
It’s not as if there’s a bigger hurdle between amateur ball and A ball than there is between A ball and the majors.
At least we’ve located the point of disagreement, because I think there is a vastly greater gulf between high school ball (or in Ynoa’s case, no ball) and A ball than between A ball and the majors. The Pac-10 is a closer call, but it’s made more difficult by the confounding factor of aluminum bats.
I don’t know what “the best pure high school hitter” actually means (best overall? best hitter for average? some other weird hybrid?) but I have to say— assuming that’s true, what the hell were the other 29 teams thinking, particularly the ones who picked other high school hitters who play less valuable positions? Surely the Angels could have drafted and signed him with their 24th or 25th picks instead of Grichuk and Trout.
Bottom line— I’m just super-duper-uber suspicious of scouting reports which are not backed up by actual performance data. I mean, what were the predraft scouting reports on Kyle Skipworth? I’m guessing they were pretty damn glowing. Now that pick looks like a disaster of epic proportions.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Everyone thought he really wanted to go to college.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 7, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
So was it a case of "the only MLB team he would sign with was Oakland"?
I mean, it didn’t seem like his bonus demands to the A’s were exhorbitant or anything.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
The hurdles differ among players
I think a first round draft pick has a better chance of playing well in A ball (thus putting up numbers to back up the scouting report) than an unheralded pitcher with below average velocity who pitches well in A ball does of eventually playing well in the majors.
Bottom line— I’m just super-duper-uber suspicious of scouting reports which are not backed up by actual performance data. I mean, what were the predraft scouting reports on Kyle Skipworth? I’m guessing they were pretty damn glowing. Now that pick looks like a disaster of epic proportions.
Throwing around random anecdotes isn’t very helpful. Prospects of all stripes have horrific examples of failure. I’m sure you’re aware that the Midwest League has seen many fringe-prospects Capra’s age pitch well there, only fall apart as they move up the ladder.
Maybe not very helpful
but it’ll have to do until I get time to sit down and run a major comparative study…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well thought out list. No Henry, but I seem to be one of his few friends.
You don’t seem to like Donaldson much. If not, they why rank him?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 6, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks for stopping by, Danny
Although I read all the prospect comments here (well, almost all), there are three or four guys whose opinions I really take seriously, and you’re one of them.
I’m especially intrigued by your defense of Simmons. Even though you backed off it a bit later, the fact that you rank him at all gives me pause. I admit, I’ve been thinking of him as already a bust.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Agreed on Danny's opinion meaning something.
Who else’s opinion do you take seriously? Maybe I should too.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 7, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
Hmm. I recognize the names when I see them.
Not sure I can remember everyone in their absence.
I’d say my top tier is andeux, Danny, and Paul. Others I read with interest are NSJ, DFA, grover, devo and mikeA. Probably a few others I’m not thinking of right now.
Of course part of that is who’s paying attention. Devo and andeux have been pretty inactive lately. I don’t know if that means they just aren’t posting, or they’re not really watching prospects like they used to. The latter, I suspect.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Thanks iglew!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 7, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Simmons
I think Simmons fits a prospect type that tends to get underrated. He had a very good pedigree but unexciting stuff. He succeeded in the high minors at young ages in 2007 and 2008, which I think a lot of people took for granted. He did struggle some in AAA in 2009, but 1) we can’t just forget about his very good performances in 2007 and 2008, and 2) I wouldn’t expect guys like Capra or Hornbeck to do any better if they were thrown into AAA next year in their age-22 seasons.
If Simmons had been putting up great numbers in A ball his first couple years as a professional instead of putting up solid numbers in AA as one of the youngest pitchers in the league, I think people would be more excited about him.
Well, I don't know
I’d probably be voting for him by now if he hadn’t been sent to the AFL and exposed to pitch f/x cameras… and yes, one can of course say the same thing about Capra and Hornbeck, but at least there my illusions haven’t been shattered by reality yet— their scouting reports still have a chance of being right…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Got a link to Simmons' pitch f/x info?
I’d look it up but I’m feeling lazy.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Here’s the thread in question.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
simmons
James Simmons is a command guy. He has been sitting at 88-90 most of the time with some sink. He has a really good change-up and he is working on his…
Oakland A’s Front Office Q&A: Billy Owens
I'm having a hard time with this one...
Coleman or a starting pitcher? If a starting pitcher, do I go with Ben Hornbeck for the ridiculous amount of K-rate or do I go with Capra for the better “stuff” that the scouts say he has.
I think I’m leaning toward Coleman if only for the fact that the dreamer inside me sees his first 2 months of the 2009 season as a chance that his ceiling is an above average bat at a premium defensive position—meaning a very valuable player.
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Nov 6, 2009 11:09 AM PST reply actions
Christian vs Coleman
i’m not so sure the gap in talent between both these players is that significant. Both were considered top 5 rd draft picks, Christian did, Coleman fell due to signability. I wouldnt be shocked if they are equal or coleman get passed up next yr in status. Of course, both could progress together if A’s are convinced Christian is better off at 3b long term. Both had injuries, so we’ll see
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 6, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Henry again.
Dixon would be my next choice as a position player.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Oh and Peterson
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 6, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
This is a very strange combination
HRod: Upside Lottery Ticket
Dixon: Upside Lottery Ticket
Peterson: Likelihood to reach Majors pick
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I'm not easy to typecast
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 7, 2009 12:16 AM PST up reply actions
BTW the most likely to reach the majors is Rodriguez
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 7, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
... ya think?
Lol.
I think vignette actually meant “likelihood to make a real contribution in the majors pick,” since the mere fact of a player playing a couple of innings in the majors is meaningless to the success of a baseball team.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Most letters
Over on the DLD, Saltalamacchia was handicapped in the poll. But even deprived of his H he still wins handily.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
FYI
Chris Carter back playing winter ball…
3 games
4 for 11 with 4 walks and 1 K.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
by Syphon on Nov 7, 2009 11:45 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Since Capra is obviously going to win this one,
I’m going to have to pick someone new to vote for next round.
I’m tentatively leaning toward Kilby. I know RP’s aren’t terribly exciting, but he does seem to be a decent one and he’s been tested at relatively high levels. As boring as that is, I think we may have reached the point where the remaining younger prospects are sufficiently distant that their promise-times-probability falls short of that.
Anyone want to offer arguments pro or con on that?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I think it's Coleman time.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I really want to like Coleman.
Heaven knows I’m big on a guy who can play a premium defensive position competently. But bottom line is he’s still in single A and he hasn’t hit particularly well even there. As NSJ observed a while back, he has a terrible strike out ratio with no power, and he wasn’t a highly touted prospect to begin with. Even allowing for the wrist injury, nothing really suggests to me he could hit any better than Gregorio Petit.
I could see voting for him some time around the early 20s, though I doubt I’ll have the opportunity.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
He has power
He hit 8 HR before the injury in 2 months. That’s fine power for a shortstop.
His power disappeared with the injury, as is almost always the case with wrist injuries.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Kilby
because he’s still technically a prospect and he’s about as good of a bet as a sure thing in the majors as anyone else left to vote on.
"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."
can I get injury reports on
Andrew Carignan and Brett Hunter? Sickles had them both as B- going into the year but Carignan didnt play and Hunter was rocked as a single A starter in limited time.
Carignan had shoulder problems
God only knows where he’s at at this point.
Hunter wasn’t injured, but the A’s tried to redo his mechanics and either it didn’t stick or it’s a serious work in progress. I could see voting for him once the alternatives are organizational guys who will probably never reach the majors at all, but no sooner.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
thats kind of a huge blow to organizational depth isnt it?
2 B-rated prospects basically falling off the list, these were guys Sickles thought more highly of than Andrew Bailey. I guess Ross, Demel and Leon can get bumped up, but its worrying.
I definitely would pick Simmons ahead of Coleman
Simmons’ worst-case scenario in my book is you flip him to a team in the NL Central and watch him be a 180-IP 4th/5th starter. Shit, the Brewers pay $7M or more every year in free agency to find a guy for that role.
The scarcity of affordable starting pitching seals the deal for me. He may never pitch in our rotation, or an any AL rotation, but he’ll be a useful piece in a deal somewhere, if nothing else.
Coleman’s worst case scenario is that he can’t hit his way out of AAA.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
Simmon's worst case scenario is Jason Windsor
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
the injured version?
That’s true, good point. Assuming health – which I shouldn’t be, given the nature of pitchers – I stand by my statement.
I think Jason Windsor would’ve been an effective NL innings-eater if had never suffered his string of injuries.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 9, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
Kilby - Getting It Done v. Potential
If performance means anything. Kilby’s the guy.
Please CHANGE THAT japanese toy box VIDEO. How about the one of him getting eight outs in a row against the Texas Rangers?
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