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Around SBN: Hugh Douglas Admits To Stealing From Jaguars

In Response: 2010 Offseason Primer

Grover's recent post really got my mind churning over the direction to take this offseason, and what I have concluded is as follows.......

First, I totally appreciate Grover doing all the contractual work for us, as I'm lazy with numbers, and totally accept his findings.  Billy likely has, if he chooses to use it, ~$13 million after arbitration for FA acquisitions.  This is where I begin to disagree with Grovers assessments, though I give props for a well thought out post.  I believe that the only two FAs the A's need pursue are already on their 40 man roster, but I will get into AK and Tomko later.  For now, they will be off the 40 man when the deadline passes, and its likely (GUARANTEED!!!) Billy will wait till after the Rule 5 draft in December to resign them, thus leaving open space on the 40 man roster to secure the organization's young talent.  So, for now, w/o those two, Bobby, Nomar and Duke off the list, the A's would have 36 players on the 40 man roster.

Next, protecting all young talent is a must for a young rebuilding team, and losing Wimberly in the Rule 5 is unacceptable in my view.  At the least, he's a good trade chip, but IMO he's our future utility/PH/PR guy.  Thus, I add Wimberly to Grover's list of Carter, FLDS, Figueroa, Recker, and Lansford.  ALL 6 MUST BE PROTECTED, especially given whose currently on the 40 man roster.   It might be different if the A's were closer to being a good team, but the A's have expendable folks on the 40 man roster; Namely, Denorfia, Petit, Marshall, and Casilla.   Releasing/Trading these players (presumably for younger/minor level prospects) leaves the A's with 8 open spots on the 40 Man roster.

Much like Grover, I believe Marshall will resign to a AAA contract, and if not, its not that big a loss considering the plethora of young talent the A's have waiting for their shot in the pen.   Unlike Grover, I feel Tommy Time has more value to the A's than Petit, thus I keep Tommy and make Petit expendable.  Neither are MLB starters, but Tommy provides a RH power bat in a PH role, or as a 1B/DH Sub, and that holds value.  Petit is easily replaceable by comparison.

Moving on, with all 6 prospects (Carter, FLDS, Figueroa, Recker, Lansford, and Wimberly) included, the A's would have 38 players on the 40 man roster, leaving two spots open for the rule 5 draft.  After the Rule 5 Draft Billy can reorder his rosters without the risk of losing young talent.  Billy can option the likes of Carter, Wallace, or Tommy back to AAA, thus opening up a couple spots for FAs Kennedy and Tomko.

Bringing AK back, after the Rule 5, gives the A's the flexibility they need if Wallace is not ready to play 3B.  However, I believe Cardenas will get his shot at 3B if Wallace can't get the job done.  But, if neither is quite ready, AK provides flexibility at a decent price.  Of course, with 13+ million to spend, Billy could forgo the AK option, and sign Mora or Beltre to one year deals if possible, with the caveat that they will not play ahead of Wallace when Wallace is ready.

Assuming the AK option, that leaves the opening day lineup like this.

1. Davis CF - Great holdover till Desme in 2011 or 2010 Sept callups, then some value in trade depending on production

2. Sweeney RF - Billy loves him, he's our RF for some time, hope the power comes.....

3. Zukes C - Most valuable player on the team by far, best 3 hole option until Wallace or Carter take it from him.

4. Cust DH - One more season as the starting DH.  

5. Hairston LF - Sink or Swim.  If he sinks, there are plenty of others waiting in the wings for their shot.

6. Barton 1B - If he can start strong, he will last, and Cust will be let go when Carter arrives.

7. Pennington SS - Play better than BoCro and this job is yours till Green or Ladendorf are ready.

8. Ellis 2B - One more season (2011 is team option) until Weeks takes over in 2011 or Sept 2010

9. AK 3B - Starts until Wallace is ready, PH and 2B/3B sub once Wallace arrives.

As for the pitching, I believe Tomko is a great option to bring back to fill the veteran role while the A's staff solidifies. Bringing Tomko back, after the Rule 5, leaves the rotation as follows for the start of the season........

1. Anderson

2. Cahill

3. Braden

4. Tomko

5. Gonzalez/Mazarro

Tomko allows the A's the flexibility to pick and choose the better guy at the start of the season between Gio and Vin.  He also gives the A's flexibility should Outman take a long time to recover next season.

In the end, the A's protect all valuable young talent, while not signing any FAs that would block the advancement of younger better talent.  Many are predicting a better than average Rule 5 draft, and signing Tomko and AK after December will allow the A's to reap the rewards of said draft w/o jeopardizing young talent of their own.

Again, Billy has plenty of financial flexibility under this plan, and it is totally possible he could forgo the AK/Tomko options for more expensive slightly better options.  My only grip here is that I dont want said FAs to block a young guy from playing, and AK and Tomko wont do that.

OK Fire Away.......

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I like most of it.

I’d sign Duke and Tomko assuming they are healthy. I don’t like signing AK because it leaves us without a backup SS. You can’t have AK become the backup utility guy when wallace is ready because then you still need to waste another roster spot on a SS.

So I vote for a SS/3b instead of AK. Or a trade of some sort.

by DrDoom on Nov 4, 2009 10:12 PM PST reply actions  

I want a Bat

We need to sing a big bat. Holliday?

by Tambo45 on Nov 5, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Pretty mediocre

AK, Hairston, Cust, Ellis….meh

Unfortunately, Wallace, Carter, Cardenas et al. won’t show up until after May in order to delay free agency.

Troy glaus or Vlad or Matsui as stop gaps for one year?

by StewCrew on Nov 4, 2009 10:15 PM PST reply actions  

Like I said......

Im totally cool with alternate/more valuable FAs, just as long as they dont block anyones development, NOT FOR ONE DAY!! I understand I keep a lot of lackluster talent on the roster, but thats just a stop gap, rather than a blocking measure. Feel me?

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I stopped reading when I got to the part where you said

Tom Everidge has value as a PH or 1B/DH substitute, but Petit is easily replaceable by comparison? Right handed PH/1B/DH substitutes aren’t easily replaceable? Sorry, that’s where you lost me.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Nov 4, 2009 10:21 PM PST reply actions  

Its the Power.....

thats less replaceable, for the A’s, by comparrason. Petit is replaceable by kids just like him, speedy RHB utility guy, in the A’s system. Carter is the ONLY other real RHB prospect with power in the system.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Because, as we all know, the system is everything

Believe in the system. The system will solve all our woes. Do not be suckered in by these “good players” on other teams. They are merely distractions sent from the planet Gazombo to test your faith in the system.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I detest Gazombonites.

Yeah, I said it.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Nov 5, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Go back to planet Argu, Argu-bot!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions  

i agree with most of this..

But i believe that there are much better SP options we can sign that are more valuable and not much more expensive than Tomko.

and i dont want Everidge

by Twan54321 on Nov 4, 2009 10:22 PM PST reply actions  

Everidge = Power off bench from right side......

and thats valuable for the A’s, as there is no one else able to fill that role as of yet. And, like I said, he sells tix….

Im totally down with a better/more expensive FA pitcher, but we both know Lew and Billy are cheap, and while we might like better, Tomko is the likely fit for the cost.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions  

And, like I said, he sells tix….

Tommy Everidge?!?!?!?

Someone insert the head exploding .gif here.

by Tripp on Nov 5, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

(but not without a subject line)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 10:51 PM PST up reply actions  

lol......

I should have said, “he sells way more tix as a local guy with pop, than the unknown petit w/o power.”

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions  

.....

Having Tom Everidge on your team rather than Gregorio Petit makes absolutely no difference in ticket sales.

by Tripp on Nov 5, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Umm......

You obviously aren’t from Sonoma, don’t follow local feel good stories, and haven’t met any members of his family.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 2:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Right.

And neither does 99.9% of the A’s fanbase.

No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.

by danmerqury on Nov 6, 2009 8:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Obviously you and Lew Wolf are two peas in a pod.......

disrespecting different parts of the fan base for no reason. There are A TON OF NORTH BAY A’s FANS!!

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Huh?

No, really. Huh?

No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.

by danmerqury on Nov 6, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Dont act like you cant read.......

The North Bay is full of A’s fans (Sonoma = North Bay buddy) and we certainly amount to more than 0.1% of the fan base, and I happen to know that Everidge on the A’s = more tix sold. Its not a major number, but certainly more than an unknown, non local Petit

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Excuse me, could someone tell me what the comment above says?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 6, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Well that's about as boring as they come....

No offense, but these series of actions practically guarantee that 2010 will be as successful as 2009. It doesn’t rush prospects and leaves space for them to come up. It has that going for it but not much else. The A’s would have no shot to be competitive until 2012 in any realistic time frame.

And frankly, I’d rather gamble than waste away an already tired fanbase.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Nov 5, 2009 12:01 AM PST reply actions  

The idea is to punt 2010 to a degree

to figure out what you actually have and then target free agents to fill the gaps in 2011.

Right now we don’t know if Barton will stick at 1B, or Hairston, Sweeney or Davis will stick in the OF. Or if Wallace can survive at 3rd or if Pennington is for real etc etc.

Our whole team is a giant question mark.

So run them out there and swap in guys like Patterson and Cunningham frequently enough and then make some hard decisions about who is going to be a part of the future and build for 2011.

Thats what I think they should do. Signing vets and giving little playing time to young guys so they can all go Travis Buck on us, gets us no closer in 2011. I could handle 1 or 2 FA signings if they aren’t long term or are awesome not too old players. The later would be tough because they will cost too much and if it doesn’t work out we are screwed.

The alternative is to make some trades to cut down on the OF prospects and pick up some infield depth or maybe even some star power if possible. Without a trade, you can’t liberally add FAs to this roster.

by DrDoom on Nov 5, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

OMG!!

+1000000000000000000000

You understand me! I can die happily now……..

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Tomko + AK

Okay Im about sick of hearing this: Those two are not going to make this team any better, and would be stealing a spot away from someone who could. AK is absolutely terrible at 3rd & had a fluke year with the bat, and youre basing Tomko off a ridiculously small sample size. There’s literally hundreds of minor league FAs who would be better options than Tomko, and Id definitely rather have Gio+Vin start 30 games each and have ERA’s in between 4.5-5 than waste time with Tomko.

If pressed, Id sign Big Unit or Duke because they would have no problem moving to the bullpen if needed. Im very wary of wasting a rotation spot with a retread/spot blocker. Let the young pitchers pitch. It might take them a year or two, but let them find their way.

Also, the upcoming logjam of Carter, Wallace & Cust means one of these bad defenders is going to have to play LF. Ideally it would be Cust in LF, Wallace at DH and Carter at 1B, but Barton might start finally showing like a big leaguer so Carter might have to play LF too, or maybe we can only fit one of the 2 young studs in the lineup if Cust is back to normal….regardless 3B&SS defense is paramount here. If this scenario happens, then AK is absolutely not the answer. I honestly think because of this, Wallace wont be at 3B, can you imagine Wallace and then Cust or Carter behind him? that left side would be open to an insane amount of hits and extra bases.

As far as 3B options better than AK:

Adrian Beltre (needs and deserves a multi-year deal. best option for a great glove/good bat combo. He’s not blocking a better defender, thats for sure.)

Troy Glaus (basically Wallace before he was Wallace. Cool if you dont care about defense and letting so many balls from the left side get defended poorly. Best bat at the position though, might make up for it)

Joe Crede (a bat thats better than Hannahan but with an equal or better glove. only needs a 1 year deal? sounds like a match…)

Brian Barden (unproven with the bat but decent with the glove and would be league min, if he stunk, who cares bring in Wallace)

Craig Counsell (would he cost as much as AK or less? he’s better with the glove, thats for sure)

Eric Patterson, Grant Green, Daric Barton, Josh Donaldson really should take the initiative and learn 3B…same with Weeks and Cardenas. I would be awesome for Cardenas to play 3B this year, he’d get to come up earlier and play with Ellis.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 12:13 AM PST reply actions  

I wholeheartedly agree with this save one thing

Leave Grant Green at SS. He’s our only real in-house hope at the position. If he proves he can’t handle SS, then move him.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Nov 5, 2009 2:40 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

Although Dusty Coleman is also a pretty good SS prospect, but definately agree with keeping Green at SS until a move is forced

by DeJay on Nov 5, 2009 4:46 AM PST up reply actions  

He doesnt have to stay there

Im working off the assumption Pennington is actually a quality big leaguer, big assumption I know. But thinking about it, he has played plenty of 3B too so a Green-Pennington left side is nothing to sneeze at.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

I had forgotten about Crede

I’d be interested in what other people think about that option. Personally, I’m probably biased against him because I live on the south side of Chicago and have seen too many White Sox fans who thought he was the greatest thing since the deep dish pizza.

But now his stock has fallen considerably and he might be affordable. I doubt that his power would translate well to Oakland, but he is a good defender at 3rd. So defense, bad OBP, maybe a little power if we get lucky, and that special affinity that we all have for injury prone types?

hmmm… I guess I really haven’t been paying attention to Crede lately, because rotowire says he is contemplating retirement due to back problems. So maybe take back everything I just said.

by colin on Nov 5, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions  

exactly, he's basically Hannahan

with 10 more HRs. Could do worse….

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Hannahan has way better plate discipline than Crede

Crede’s slightly better with the bat, but the difference is less than it might appear.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Long history of chronic back injuries.

I think we’ve been down that road before…

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 5, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions  

I really didn't realize

how bad Crede’s back problems were until I saw that rotoworld sidebar on his fangraphs page. So agree, let’s have no part of it.

by colin on Nov 5, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

well what about

platooning Chavez+Crede? The less they play, the less chance they have of hurting themselces (HA!)

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you missed my point.......

Mazarro had arm/nerve issues at the end of the season, and thats not good. The A’s are gonna be really careful with him to start, which makes a Tomko like veteran all the more important to prop up the rotation. We also have no Idea about Outman and how long he will take.

I too, would love to resign Duke, but he having serious mental issues that are way more important than baseball. Also, HE HATES THE BULLPEN, so I doubt he would resign knowing thats where he would end up when Vin or Outman are ready. I would also take Randy, but he comes with huge injury risk, and Im not the type of person to sign a guy to be a steady veteran, only to be constantly worried he will fall apart from old age. It doesn’t have to be Tomko, but he’s a better option than these two IMO.

Next, you left one player out of the logjam you describe, Barton. If/When Carter and Wallace arrive, Wallace will play 3B. GUARANTEED! It has been made clear he is gonna get all the opportunity in the world, and apparently he has been busting his tail to get better and its paying off. That leaves Carter, Barton, and Cust for 1B and DH. If Barton can keep hitting the way he finished 2009, Cust will be relegated to the bench as a PH, Barton will play 1B, and Carter will DH. Its likely Cust would be traded by the deadline too. Its a matter of costs bro, and Cust will be more expensive than Barton, Wallace, and Carter combined, AND FOR WHAT?

Carter may split time between DH and OF, but only sparingly. And, HAVE YOU SEEN CARTER? He is very lean, and very athletic. A leaner Ryan Howard. With work, he capable of playing a respectable OF, on occasion, but I doubt that will be necessary or wanted given the plethora of talent working for their shot in the OF.

As for 3B, like I said, Wallace is greatly improved, and until he gets his chance and fails miserably, hes the man at 3B. Cardenas will only get a legit shot if Wallace fails. I am however, totally cool with any of those FAs if they dont block prospects when the time comes. I refuse to stall young talent for more RENT-A-VETERANS.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

but

you listed AK as someone we should sign, who is a rent-a-veteran, and a terrible one at that. My point is that giving Crede/Chavez those pre-Wallace PA’s is a better option than AK.

You seem to have plenty of faith in Wallace holding down 3rd and thats good, I hope to hell he plays league average/not bad defense there too, but I dont think he will. I think he will be a 1B at best and most likely a Hafner-esque DH.

Carter’s body type and athleticism has nothing to do with his defensive sense, he’s just not good with a glove man. You can have all the athleticism in the world and end up Wily Mo Pena. Id rather we stick Carter+Wallace at the 2 least meaningful defensive positions, 1B+DH, so they dont have to worry about their defense and just about raking the living hell out of the ball.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Negative......

I believe I made it very clear that AK was just an option and I am totally open to a better more expensive option, provided Wallace/Carter/Cardenas/Desme/Doolittle (etc etc) arent held back as a result. Crede and Chavy (thats pretty funny you include him given his assortment of recent back and shoulder trouble), well maybe just Crede, would be great. But do you really think he would sign knowing he was just a half season stopgap? AK would! Crede, not so much, especially when others would take him as a starter all year. Again, the trick is getting someone good to sign, knowing they will soon be replaced and likely shelved/traded mid season.

The reason I have faith in Wallace is because everything I have read lately via numerous sources (Baseball America, Baseball prospectus, Scout.com, Bill James) says Wallace is working really hard to improve his defense at 3B, and thats he is indeed getting better. We will see. I think you may be forgetting Chavy was terrible at 3B his first season in the bigs. Give the kid a legit shot to develop. Dont pigeon hole him at 1B or DH without first giving him a legit shot.

And if Wallace fails, I would much rather put Cardenas at 3B than a Rent-A-Veteran any day. Let the kids play man!

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

well we agree

on letting the kids play.

But is it so wrong to expect 30-80 games out of Chavez? i honestly believe a straight platoon with Crede would be awesome for both of them, if they only played 2-3 games a week each.

And my point is: unless you want a full year of Hairston in LF, we are going to need an excellent defender at 3B if we are going to have Cust and/or Carter in LF, both are horrific defenders at best. I dont mind AK if Hairston or Sweeney or Davis is in LF as all are capalable defenders, however we need that power bat and if Wallace’s bat is ready but glove isnt, then I want him at DH being Hafner pt II rather than waiting it out while we have crappy AK there…..and who’s to say Craig Counsell isnt going to be better than AK anyway?

Regardless Id rather have Beltre and trade Barton midway through 2010 so Carter can play 1B.

by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:19 AM PST up reply actions  

You cant be serious.......

When was the last time Chavy got 30-80 PAs let alone 30-80 games. Holy Crap man your optimistic. I love Chavy, we all do, but Ill believe it when I see it. I honestly would be happy with Crede just taking the jopb till Wallace is ready. Really, I have no problem with that. Im not stuck on having AK at all.

I am expecting much better from Hairston next season, as he played injured most of his time in Oakland last season, but I also expect him to be traded by the deadline when Desme or Doolittle or Weeks or Whomever is ready to play in the Bigs. I hope he does great honestly and starts every game in LF, that way we get more back when Billy deals him.

As for Cust and Carter playing in the OF. I was never for that under any circumstances. First because Sweeney is a lock in RF, we need to find out if Davis is for real in CF, and because Hairston is a RHB and needs to recoup trade value.

I believe Cust will start the season as the DH only. Barton will get his chance to continue his strong play from the end of last season at 1B, and if he does well, Billy will put Carter in the DH role and keep Barton at 1st. 2010 is Custs last season with the A’s, for sure.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 2:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Where is your proof that Wallace is greatly improved?

Seriously. Where are you getting this?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Many places.........

Baseball America, Baseball prospectus, Scout.com, Bill James…….

There are many good sources, and I can remember reading several articles toward the end of the AAA season and in the PCL playoffs, talking about how much he had improved already at 3B, and how hard he is working to prove all the doubter wrong.

I tried to find one specific article from Scout.com that was very specific as to his improvements, but I cant find it in the archives as it was written a few months ago.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, that's a step in the right direction.

But it’s easier to examine your sources and see how we feel about them if you can come up with an actual link.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Even by AN standards of prospect fetishism, this is really extreme

Since it can’t really be stated enough: Signing good free agents does not “block” young players if they are actually good enough to crack the lineup of a good team. If they are, they will be slotted in somewhere. If not, what exactly are you missing?

Signing awful free agents can have the effect of blocking prospects, if they get playing time from the manager (who usually can be counted on to prefer bad veterans to untested youngsters, Geren being no exception to this rule), but, well, this fanpost is advocating the signing of Adam “my career OPS+ is 89 and I’m 34” Kennedy and Brett “my career ERA+ is 92 and I’m even older than Adam Kennedy” Tomko.

Eh.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 12:45 AM PST reply actions  

This doesn't make sense to me.

If a manager is going to prefer bad veterans to an untested youngster, they’re going to prefer decent, if unremarkable, veterans to an even larger degree.

I’d prefer decent to bad, obviously, but I’d like short-term commitment to said veteran most of all.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 5, 2009 6:59 AM PST up reply actions  

No, the point is, preferring GOOD veterans to untested prospects actually makes sense

because they’re (by and large) better.

If the young guy shows that not to be the case, then he will get playing time somewhere else on the diamond.

Given that the current lineup has like 5 spots which project to be below average next season, worrying about filling one of them with a good player is like worrying about what to do with your money when you hit the lottery, while repeatedly paying the minimum on your credit card balance.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions  

well yes of course thats true

Id have no problem with us signing Aroldis Chapman, John Lackey, Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer, as those SPs are significantly better than what we have internally. Will we sign any of those guys though? Uh, maybe/probably not.

Replacing Vin Mazzaro with Brett Tomko isnt helping this team in any way, shape or form. Vin’s arby clock has already started, who cares if it takes him 2 years to figure out things? Let him.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

True

but GOOD veterans are much less likely to require short-term commitments, which is bad for a couple of reasons. One, it makes blocking the player more likely, both in terms of the investment made in the good veteran, and the length of time the position will be filled. For another, the likelihood that you’ll be wasting money on that veteran when the make the inevitable transition from good to not-so-good during that commitment increases.

Good and short-term would be wonderful; I just don’t know how easy it is to find. Shifting people around to fill the holes isn’t as easy as it sounds, especially when your DH position is clogged up with a guy that has no business playing the outfield, ever.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 5, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions  

There's no evidence whatsoever that good veterans are any less efficient than bad ones

in terms of dollars per win, they get paid at essentially the same rate. Now, if you look year to year, they probably get paid less dollars per win at the beginning of contracts and more dollars per win at the end of contracts, but overall? They’re the same.

And the A’s committing to a third baseman long-term seems like an incredibly great, awesome idea to me. The position has utterly sucked since Chavez was hurt, and promises to probably utterly suck in the future, unless they move prospects who really shouldn’t be playing there to the position, in which case other positions are likely to utterly suck instead.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions  

No, I'm totally on the Beltre train

He’s basically the only position-player free agent who it makes sense to sign long-term this offseason, because he’s the best 3B available for two years running. If people feel like beating their heads against a brick wall wishcasting that Wallace can actually be adequate at third base for another season, congrats— you just got Brandon Inge instead. Or worse.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Been meaning to ask you...

In all the blocking prospects banter, exactly who are you expecting to be big league capable by the end of 2010? Put another way, who do you see being players the A’s build their 2011 (and beyond) roster around?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 5, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I tried to do this and I realized that it just does not work

Projecting wins for prospects years down the road is nigh impossible.

I think a better way to do it would be to group prospects as follows:

I expect the A’s to get two good COF/1B/DH out of Barton, Doolittle, Carter and Wallace;
I expect the A’s to get one good IF out of Weeks/Cardenas;
I expect the A’s to get one good OF out of Brown, Desme and Cunningham;
I expect Sweeney to remain a good OF, and Suzuki to remain a good C;
Throwing together the rest of the prospects (Donaldson, Spencer, Sulentic, etc etc etc) I expect probably one more good position player.

That’s pretty optimistic, but I think it’s warranted— the A’s could have a pretty good lineup in a few years, with 5 or 6 above-average players (and hopefully a few of them will be elite) and a lot of depth. The problem is that they are still missing, you guessed it, two infielders. (I think there’s enough outfield depth to produce 1.5 to 2 WAR from the third spot.) Grant Green or Dusty Coleman might bail the team out, but those guys seem more like 2012 types to me.

But there is definitely room to fit in one high-quality free agent signing. And the place to do it is probably at 3B or SS. I think Beltre is better than Marco Scutaro, and they are the best FAs at their respective positions this offseason and next.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Remind me what your objection to Figgins is.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Similar skill level to Beltre, but likely to cost more

If that scenario surprisingly fails to materialize, then he’s also an available option.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 6, 2009 12:28 AM PST up reply actions  

This
if you look year to year, they probably get paid less dollars per win at the beginning of contracts and more dollars per win at the end of contracts

is what I said, not

good veterans are…less efficient than bad ones

i understand why you want a long-term third base solution. It’s because you’ve already decided that Wallace can’t do it, which is fine. I see no long-term solutions on the market that are any better than decent, though, nor any that promise to do anything but deteriorate over that term. If a trade could bring one in, that’s another story.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 5, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Heh
And the A’s committing to a third baseman long-term seems like an incredibly great, awesome idea to me.

It worked so well in 2004!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

It was a great idea at the time

Sometimes great ideas don’t work out.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I actually agree.

I just couldn’t resist the heh.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions  

On a serious note...

lower-case “g” when spelling my name unless you’re using it at the start of the sentence. Please.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 5, 2009 6:53 AM PST reply actions  

k

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Tomko is worthless.

Kennedy is slightly useful, but it would be nice to get a better stopgap than that.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 5, 2009 7:00 AM PST reply actions  

sounds good to me.....

Who would you prefer…..

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, somebody has to ask the author:

How did come upon your carefully chosen user name? Is it the result of:

1. A pun I don’t get
2. An inside joke I’m not part of
3. An epileptic seizure at an inopportune moment

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 5, 2009 7:15 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

+1

It’s hard to take someone seriously when his/her/its choice of user name looks like something from a 5-year-old spam e-mail.

Hey Al, just go away, baby.

by doctorK on Nov 5, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions  

How about when they're named after Larry Kenon?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

lol

mine is my initials and my birth year. I hate it too, I should have just called myself tastycakes.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh, we are SOOO calling you "tastycakes" from now on.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Pamcakes beat him to the punch.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 5, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the SN tastycakes

they are tasty, they are cakes, whats not to like???

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Nicely done

I had to dig a little to figure out the Larry Kenon reference. I’m also pretty sure I pissed off a Mets fan by stealing his Dwight Gooden tribute when all the SBN blogs were brought under the same umbrella.

Of course, ‘doctorK’ is easy enough to say, as is ‘WaddellCanseco’, ‘Nico’, and ‘PL78’, etc. I have no idea what to make of ‘s0sNe@kYbUtY?’.

Hey Al, just go away, baby.

by doctorK on Nov 5, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

so sneaky but y?

Its an old first person shooter name I used to dominate under when I was a teenager. Counterstrike Baby!! I loved this name cause it would piss people off being Pwned by someone named s0sNe@kYbUtY? (so sneaky but y?) ZZZZZomg!! Great memories!!

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks

Hey Al, just go away, baby.

by doctorK on Nov 5, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd figured out the pronunciation

but thought that you’d accidentally switched the username and password fields when you registered.

by oblique on Nov 5, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

+1

I laughed out loud at this one.

by el generico on Nov 5, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

lol

its just a fun name all the way around, no? I love it…..

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

It's more fun to say "so sneaky booty"

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

So Sneaky But Y?

Its an old first person shooter name I used to dominate under when I was a teenager. Counterstrike Baby!! I loved this name cause it would piss people off being Pwned by someone named s0sNe@kYbUtY? (so sneaky but y?) ZZZZZomg!! Great memories!!

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks x2

Hey Al, just go away, baby.

by doctorK on Nov 5, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Poor Graham Godfrey. No one wants to protect him.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2009 8:55 AM PST reply actions  

No,

but I want some graham crackers.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Probably has something to do with that career strikeout rate of 6.7 per 9 innings

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Or they just forgot

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Wolverine!

Anyway, from the player’s point of view, I’d think it’s better not to be protected, right?

I mean, what’s the downside in being taken by another team in rule 5? If they follow through, you get a lot of major league salary and benefits. If they don’t, then you’re no worse off than you were before.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

It can also lead to you reaching free agency sooner

which, while not worth nearly what major league free agency is, is pretty important if you’re trying to make a livelihood as a AAAA type.

Yeah, no, Rule 5 is great for the players. The whole point of putting it in was to prevent teams with deep farm systems from hiding good players in their minor league systems forever. It forces teams to cycle through minor league talent much more quickly.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

If the A's have the same team at the begining of next year

that they had at the end of this season I won’t be the only fan who’s ticked off.

They need to add at least one hitter and one starter and I can’t imagine Beane standing pat and doing nothing but re-signing AK and Tomko.

by sirbed on Nov 5, 2009 2:06 PM PST reply actions  

Well, I totally agree......

and am fine with swapping AK and Tomko for better, more expensive options. But, I will not be the only A’s fan who’s gonna be ticked off if Wallace, Carter, Desme, or Doolittle are stuck in AAA to the detriment of the future of the organization, all so some Rent-A-Veteran can get his swings in.

Also, do you really think we are gonna make the playoffs, let alone win the WS, by adding one big bat, and one pretty good veteran pitcher? I don’t. In fact, the only chance I see of that happening is if our young talent actually plays and grows together over 2010, so we can really start to compete in 2011 and beyond.

True, if Billy had 25 million to work with, he could go out and piece together a really competitive team in the short term. But by allowing these kids all the opportunity to get a ton of ABs at the major league level in 2010 and 2011, we could be more than competitive, WE COULD BE A CONTENDER AGAIN, and we haven’t seen that in a really long time, say 2003.

I guess Im tired of thinking small/short term competitiveness, at the expense of long term possible greatness.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

we havent been a contender since 2003?

wtf we were 4 games away from the World Series in 2006.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

2006 Was Great.......

But unsustainable at the same time. Also, Frank and the like were not blocking prospects at the time. If you recall our Farm was beginning to thin out at the time. Rent-A Veterans were really the only option for competitiveness. The team fell apart in 2007, and Billy decided to replenish the system by trading Haren/Blanton/Harden etc etc……..

At this point in 2009-2010, there is too much talent, too close to the bigs, to risk stunting their development with Rent-A-Vets.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

we still contended

every year from 2000-2006. We were right in the race in 04 too, finishing 1 game out is what you call “contending”. We were in the race in Sept 05 too, we finished 7 out but were still a good team.

Holy jesus, we have a couple bad years then the negative people try to revise it even further than it actually is now?

I really get the feeling the cubs-fan mentality of actually liking to lose is seeping into our franchise. WE WERE AWESOME FROM 1999-2006, DONT EVER SAY OTHERWISE!

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

A couple is TWO, some is THREE.....

so we have had SOME bad years, and 3 is too many for me, especially when that will obviously stretch to 5 before we are legit contenders, and Rent-a-veterans arent gonna change that.

Also, there is a serious difference between a team that “tries to compete in the division to make the playoffs”, and a team that "expects to CONTEND for a World Series every year. Thats where I would like to see my team go, and again, Rent-a-vets wont get that done.

After 2004, we were just competing, not CONTENDING. Even in 2006. We were lucky to make it that far, and were totally outclassed by the Tigers. Again, that team was not a real CONTENDER. They gave it their best COMPETITIVE shot, but it wasn’t even close to good enough for the Tigers, let alone the Cards that season.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions  

nope

totally disagree, we were awesome and had a contending roster from 2000-2007. you are wrong in my opinion and are trying to downplay our awesomeness in that era, which makes me think you are either very young, or new to being an A’s fan.

In 2007 we had a contending roster on opening day. Who knew we would break records for DL use and Milton Bradley would talk shit on Beane?

by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:09 AM PST up reply actions  

On Bradley......

Everyone knew, thats what he does……lol

And we were chasing with a Rent-A-Veteran strategy from 2005 on. 2006 was great, but again, unsustainable. Only a really stubborn and blind person would call a Piazza led lineup in 2007, “awesome”.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 2:23 AM PST up reply actions  

also

your interpretation of the word “contender” is completely different to about 98% of the worlds view of it, either fix your view, or be prepared to have a lot of people call you out on it.

Contender: a team contends for the division title; to contend for a playoff berth.

Competing: every team in baseball.

by PL78 on Nov 6, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions  

But obviously.....

I made MY interpretation very clear, and thus served MY purposes in explanation. But just so you feel better and can move on with your life and still feel ok about yourself……..

“Your totally right, you win, your the king, ruler of this thread, congrats champ.”

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 6, 2009 2:26 AM PST up reply actions  

explain why we need a starting pitcher though?

Braden-Anderson-Cahill-Gio-Mazzaro need those starts, and then we have Outman coming back hopefully good as new by August. I dont think sending any of those guys down is a smart option unless they have completely lost their way, and seeing as the offseason is here, they can work on their issues now.

I guess what Im asking here is how is Brett Tomko a better option than Dana Eveland, James Simmons or Clay Mortensen? Or any number of other bargain bin options for that matter? He somehow pitched 36 innings of great ball last year in meaningless games, that shouldnt impress as many people as it seemingly does.

by PL78 on Nov 5, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Tomko is tomko-riffic

and he has magic pixie dust.

That makes him better than Eveland for sure, and probably the other two as well.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Only 4 of the pitchers you mentioned.......

are pretty much locks to start the season in the rotation. Zaro, not so much. He has been having trouble with shoulder tendentious, and apparently there are whispers he may need surgery down the line. We will see. Again, the A’s need a veteran for the first half of the season while Zaro works out the kinks (hopefully no surgery necessary), and Outman recovers.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Shoulder tendentious?

I thought that was what people developed when they write fanposts like this one…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 5, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Ugh. Let us please squelch that monstrosity of a nickname

right now. Before we start hearing about Derson, Zalez, and Scherer.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 5, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow.....

You really dont get that its supposed to be an offshoot of Zoro? I hope your kidding.

Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 5, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure who "Zoro" is.

I assume you mean the fictional bandit from stories and film (and given your mention of my kidding, the misspelling doesn’t seem unlikely).

Even so, how does that make “Zaro” a good nickname for Mazzaro?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 7, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

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