Community Prospect List - #19
by Zonis on Nov 28, 2009 11:56 PM PST
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Prospects up for Vote:
Rashun Dixon, OF, Age 18
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS 2008 Azl Athletics Ariz 17 OAK Rk of 45 179 32 47 3 10 8 42 5 2 18 68 1 0 0 3 5 .263 .328 .525 853 2009 Vancouver Nwst 18 OAK A- 57 196 25 42 7 0 2 16 6 4 23 73 2 0 0 2 2 .214 .300 .281 581 Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 102 375 57 89 10 10 10 58 11 6 41 141 3 0 0 5 7 .237 .314 .397 711
Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39 STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48
Ian Krol, SP, Age 18 - Video - Draft Scouting Report
Motion
Fastball
Curveball
Change-up
Command 50
45
50/55
45
45/50
Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 7 4-0 1.24 36.1 19 10 47 0 0.80 STO (oak) A+ 21 5-4 3.52 76.2 64 32 111 1 1.25
Shane Peterson, OF, Age 21
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SFD (stl) AA 18 .284 .338 .405 1 7 2 10 4 MID (oak) AA 57 .276 .335 .399 4 24 6 26 14
Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09 SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48
Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP OAK MLB 11 1-0 0.53 17.0 10 4 10 0 0.82 SAC (oak) AAA 45 4-2 2.13 63.1 40 24 77 2 1.01
Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP SAC (oak) AAA 37 2-1 5.77 43.2 38 38 71 4 1.74 STO (oak) A+ 3 0-0 0.00 5 3 1 11 0 0.80
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video
3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video
4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video
5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - Video - OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme
6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - Video
7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson
8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - Video
9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - Video
10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - Video
11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8)
12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - Cal Sports Profile Video
13. Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23 - 34% (of 8)
14. Max Stassi, C, Age 18 - 45% (of 8)
15. Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22 - 41% (of 8)
16. Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22 - 21% (of 8)
17. Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - 25% (of 8) - Video
18. James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - 21% (of 8) / 50% (Runoff) - Video
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As tempting as it was to vote Kilby on the list a second time
I am still sticking with Hornbeck. Tons of K’s not horrible control, was actually pretty good at throwing strikes in low A. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does next season.
Plus
Kilby’s already been voted in, right?
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
Brad Kilby
He’s the number 17 prospect.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Nov 29, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
True
I think it’s a trap, though.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Nov 29, 2009 12:21 AM PST up reply actions
Cue Admiral Ackbar
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ha!
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 29, 2009 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
We should trade this clone
100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.
Begun
The clone trades have.
[Wow, that’s two Star Wars references in just one subthread. Talk about dork-tacular.]
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Now that's what I call fungible!
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Henry again. I have him around #10.
Nino Leyja my next nominee.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Also went with HenRo
Someone said that guys that throw 100 mph don’t grow on trees but Kilby’s grow on trees. I believe him now. The Kilby tree produced another lefty who is quickly gaining momentum as our 19th best prospect. Therefore, Henry it is.
Apples grow on trees; rocks don't.
Doesn’t mean the rock is tastier.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Dec 1, 2009 4:58 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
But what if it was rock candy
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Dec 2, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
Lansford has lost a lot of luster
I don’t think I would start considering him until around the 30’s. I haven’t really formed my list yet but I can’t see looking at Lansford until guys like Demel and Storey are on the list as I think that they are better relief prospects.
Based on his statline from last year,
why is Storey not already on here?
"There are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks." ~ jeffro
by CaliforniaJag on Nov 30, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions
Fringy stuff, didn't particularly impress in the AFL
I think he’s better than Rodriguez since he can at least throw a strike once in a while, but he’s still a ways off in my book.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'd much rather go by his 11.0+ K/9 and his sub-2.0 BB/9 throughout his minor league career
than a handful of innings in the AFL, obviously. But he’s still a reliever which limits his upside substantially.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Storey might be converted to starter at AA though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 1, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
Has this been confirmed with anyone? I thought it was just speculation that transmogrified into a rumor.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Melissa Lockard thought it was a real possiblility
This is subscriber content so feel free to delete.
There has been talk and it is something that will be decided on based on discussions between Keith Lieppman, Gil Patterson, the A’s front office and Mickey himself. Keith has called Storey “a mini-Justin Duchscherer” on a number of occasions and I think the A’s see him as a guy who can excel in either role. It is my understanding that the A’s will make a determination about Storey once the Rule 5 draft is over and they have a better handle on who they have left in the upper levels of their system. The fact that Storey is adding a cutter to go along with his fastball, curveball and slider gives him a nice pitch mix for the rotation.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2009 3:20 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting
He really doesn’t have a path to the majors through the bullpen, so it makes a lot of sense… the question then becomes whether he can hack it as a starter, which probably entails a further decline in his velocity.
Armed with this information, I’d support putting Storey on the poll for the next vote.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I posed this as a suggestion a while back,
and I think I contributed to its formation as a rumor as such. I don’t think there’s actually been any suggestion from anybody in the A’s front office that there is a plan to do this.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
I'm not saying he sucks, just that he needed a dominant performance to leap up my list
He’s lurking somewhere around the late 20s on my list. I just can’t rank relievers without dominant performances above A+ ball all that highly.
He’ll get his chance to climb the ladder next season.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
2008 was his only good pro season ever
I think they should convert him back to a third baseman, because this “pitching” thing is not working out for him.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I think we should make him a hitting coach for the giants.
A spot just opened up.
Sounds like they had an agreement, though.
When they drafted him, they promised to let him try to make it as a pitcher. Isn’t that what was reported? If so, it makes sense to follow through on the promise. Otherwise, I bet they would have converted him by now.
Presumably if he remains lusterless long enough, Jared himself will give up on pitching and say he’s ready to convert. Better to let him decide then have him feel he wasn’t given a chance.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
i doubt
he’ll give up on pitching.
i’m pretty sure he lost a lot of money by not wanting to get drafted as an infielder, so i’m skeptical that he would just decide to give up pitching and make a transition. I’m also guessing that he wants to pitch so that he doesn’t get compared to his dad all the time(who is extremely nice btw)
I dont know about that
From what I remember he actually wanted to be drafted as a third baseman but he was more highly regarded as a pitcher. The story was that he would have been drafted even higher if he was more open to pitching but fell when word leaked he would only sign as a third baseman. He only agreed to be a pitcher for the A’s due to his family connections and his agent’s relationship with the team.
This sounds vaguely familiar, yeah
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Oh, maybe I'm remembering the story backwards then.
This definitely calls for more research….
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Matt Spencer
Nino Leyja, Mickey Storey, Ryan Ortiz, and Clayton Mortenson are other guys I would be looking at.
Justin Marks
he should be on until he makes the list.
by AgitationStation on Nov 29, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
Krol got the higher bonus, but BA rated Marks as the much better draft prospect. Marks was rated the 83rd best prospect in the draft, while Krol was 184th. Krol received a much higher bonus due to his superior bargaining position as a high schooler.
Here’s how BA described their respective repertoires prior to the draft:
Marks:
Marks doesn’t have an overpowering pitch but he’s a lefty with command of four solid offerings: a lively 90-92 mph fastball, a slider, a downer curveball and a changeup. Outside of a rough time in the Cape Cod League last summer, he has been very consistent. Marks has a good 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame, though there’s some violence in his delivery from a high three-quarters slot.
Krol:
Scouts who like him project him as a lefty who’ll have command of three average pitches, while others hold his size, velocity and makeup concerns against him. Krol’s out pitch is his hard, two-plane curveball, and some scouts grade his changeup as his second-best offering. He sat at 88-90 mph on the showcase circuit last summer but has pitched more at 86-88 mph this spring. At 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds, he doesn’t project to add much more velocity, though he get s good sink on his fastball from a low-three-quarters angle.
I’d put these two guys above everyone on the current list besides Kilby and Hornbeck.
I feel like we're approaching the Gregorio Petit threshold.
We all know what Gregorio is. He’s been in AAA long enough that we have a pretty good idea of how well he hits, which is OK for AAA but not good enough for the bigs. If he weren’t a SS he’d be a bust, but since he is, he’s the sort of guy you want to keep on your roster as plan C to call up in case of multiple injuries (a la Mark Kiger, D’Angelo Jimenez, Ramon Castro, etc).
I don’t know how others evaluate prospects, but I think in terms of net expected total value to the team. Although no one is projecting Petit as a future star, his role as backup-to-the-backup has value in and of itself, and there’s still some chance that he suddenly steps it up at age 25 or 26 and becomes a useful utility guy. That’s not a lot, but it’s something. And as we move into the 20s I start to think maybe it’s more than the long shots we have left to vote for.
Another way to look at it: What would you trade Petit for? The argument against assigning any real value to a guy like Petit is the idea that “guys like that are readily available; if we ever need one, we can easily trade for one”. And indeed you can. But what would you have to give up to get him? A low-level prospect like Sam Demel or Shane Peterson, that’s what.
So my sense is we’re getting close to Gregorio Petit time. If the standard were putting a guy on the candidate list since he’s coming up in the next six or seven votes, then I’d say Petit should be there already. But because we’re in territory where simple name recognition can put a guy over the top among casual voters, I understand he requires special consideration.
Still, once Hornbeck wins this slot, I’m not sure there’s anyone left I’d value more than Petit. I’d trade away Petit to get another Hornbeck clone, but I wouldn’t trade away Petit to get another Demel clone.
I’d be curious to know what others think of this.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Careful not to conflate Petit's abstract prospect list value
with his value to the A’s. I’d say 27 or 28 teams out of 30 would trade Gregorio Petit for a Demel clone. The A’s just happen to have a zillion relievers, many of whom are already as good as Demel one day might be (which is, for a reliever, pretty good).
In the abstract, I’d trade Petit for a good prospect relief pitcher (so he falls behind Demel and Storey), for a third-round pick (so he’s behind Marks), for a sixth round pick with nice upside and performance numbers to date (so he’s behind Ryan Ortiz), for a bonus baby (so he’s behind Dixon and Krol), and for a million bucks (so he’s behind Solano). After that it starts getting interesting.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I think I like him a little better than most here do
Mostly because I really like shortstops. So if you multiply the small probability of him actually improving enough to be MLB quality times how much I value a run-of-the-mill MLB quality shortstop, it comes out a little higher than it would for someone else.
Also, I think I’m slightly more pessimistic than average about anyone who hasn’t made it to AA yet.
I think I’d probably vote for Petit above anyone else still on the list, but I can see why others would draw the line a little further down.
If he’s not on the list, I think I’m voting Demel next, in spite of not liking RPs much.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
How about no
Hornbeck’s going to win in a landslide anyway. Don’t think it matters too much that 6 votes went to Donald Duck and there only happened to be 7 real candidates.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
ACORN!
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 29, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
Did you know that Donald Duck actually won a small-town mayoral race in Oregon once?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Unfortunately he made Scrooge his PR man, and his political career was over
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 29, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
He must've been caught diving into the campaign funds
"There are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks." ~ jeffro
by CaliforniaJag on Nov 30, 2009 11:14 PM PST up reply actions
Akon?
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 30, 2009 5:06 AM PST up reply actions
The winner here is obvious.....
lets move on to the next round already……..
I voted for Dixon though on upside potential and age……..
"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha
I've been voting for Hornbeck for the past few
Now that it looks like he’ll actually go on, I have no idea who to go with next. I’m inclined to go with Shane Peterson.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
You're not allowed to vote for Shane Peterson unless you can carve out some way of distinguishing him from Matt Sulentic :p
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
.....one's an option on the poll?
Okay, you got me.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 30, 2009 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
Well, they are pretty similar
and it’s hard to make definite conclusions about Peterson as he has moved pretty quickly in his short pro career. But at this point I like Peterson a bit better than Sulentic because I think he can has better contact skills. Sulentic has been sitting around 25% K-rate the last two seasons while Peterson was at 18% at three different stops last year.
Both guys need some work on their secondary batting skill but I can at least envision Peterson hitting for a decent average without relying on super-high BABIP.
Justin Souza
I know hardly anything about him, but given that the front office considered him worthy of protection against Rule 5, should he get consideration as a candidate some time soon?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Aha -- my "the team likes him" scouting consideration!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bandleader is the new mushroom!
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I have no idea what you just said but it had "mushroom" in it so I love it!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Pedro Figueroa
I don’t understand how you guys can rank a guy like Simmons who tops out at 88 mph and put up mediocre to bad numbers in his minor league career while completely forgetting a lefty starter who throws 96 mph and was named the A’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year by the front office…
Not to mention he put up excellent numbers in the hitter’s paradise of the Cal League and he is the A’s pitcher that 3rd party scouts seem to like the most (including BA).
I could see him coming up soon
But I think you overstate the case a little bit. Simmons had pretty impressive numbers before flopping this season so categorizing his minor league career as mediocre to bad is probably a bit harsh.
And I would call Figueroa’s numbers in the Cal league more “promising” than excellent. Walking almost 5 batters per 9 innings is a bit disconcerting and a K/BB rate of less than 2 is not that inspiring.
None the less Figueroa is a in interesting case as I doubt he would even be up for consideration right now if it weren’t for BA ranking him 7th in the Cal league top 20 and then the A’s awarding him minor league pitcher of the year. It comes down to Nico’s earlier point of how much stock do you put into expert opinion. I think you could make a good case that many of the voters are not paying enough heed to the opinions of people who have actually seen this guy pitch, but I haven’t quite figured out for myself just what to make of it. Although now that Hornbeck looks like he’s going on I think Figueroa is next on my list.
Simmons is also a year younger than Figueroa pitching two levels higher.
I reckon either one would most likely make it as a reliever, but who knows?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2009 3:22 AM PST up reply actions
When it comes to pitchers, I'd say stuff > age
unless the age difference is enormous.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ya, I agree. Just another point to consider.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
I actually agree with this
If Simmons didn’t have the first-round-pick label on him, he’d be nowhere near this high.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Dec 2, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
I thinks he's pretty comparable to Capra or Marks. Ross seems to have better stuff but
that strange motion scares me.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
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