Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Jack Cust Drawing Trade Interest?


http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/


According to this article, Cust is expected to be dealt prior to December 12th. This is news to me, and i'm guessing most of us on AN. It's been known that Cust is a potential non-tender candidate, but this is the first I have heard of him drawing any interest on the trade market. Obviously this time of the year its expected of most teams to kick the tires on multiple opitions so to hear that a trade has been considered isn't too earth shattering, but to hear that he is actually expected to be dealt within the next 3 weeks comes as a bit of a suprise. It's also said in the article that any deal won't net much for the A's, so whats everyones opinions on this? Isn't this selling a bit low on Cust?? Yes he's likely to get a nice arbitration raise, but he still won't cost more then $4-5 million in 2010 and is currently our only lock to hit 20+ homeruns. It opens up other options for the OF/DH, but I don't see the A's getting anybody that will produce that much more then Cust likely will. Thoughts??

Comment 271 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Huh

Why are the A’s so unwilling to pay Jack Cust $4-5 million next year?

1) They’re afraid that his numbers have been trending downward the last 3 years and that next year will be more of the same.

2) They can’t afford more than a $45 million payroll.

3) They need every dollar they can scrape together to sign/pay for someone else.

None of those 3 options seems likely, although I suppose all have some potential to be accurate. So I propose a 4th option:

4) NY news outlets should be ignored until/unless the local press can corroborate the story.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 23, 2009 9:40 AM PST reply actions  

#4 governs all.

As a general rule, any trade “rumor” that surfaces in the Daily News or the Post is 100% speculation of the writer presented as rumor.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

but it is still fun to talk about right?

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Look, I like Cust

But he will not be a part of the next A’s team to seriously challenge for the World Series. Paying him $5MM is pointless if you can trade him. How about Cust for Daniel Murphy and a B pitching prospect?

by Manstein on Nov 23, 2009 9:42 AM PST reply actions  

Not sure about that return

but it’s a good way to look at Cust. I have no idea why an NL team would want him (well, actually I do—see reply to grover above), but if Seattle or Texas or some other AL team in need of a DH came calling, the A’s should definitely be willing to listen.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

absolutely......

it also opens up more plate appearances for Landon at DH as he has shown nice power, or if Carter/Wallace seem ready earlier then usual then Barton would still be in the lineup every day. Billy made it very clear he still like Barton and wants to play him in the recent interview.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure, there's value in trading Cust instead of paying him $5 million

But this Daily News piece-o-crap is talking about Cust as if he’s some sort of salary dump the A’s absolutely need to get rid of. Your proposal is a lot stronger than “some guy in A-ball” like the article is discussing.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 23, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Do Mets have anyone in A-ball that we would really need?

Maybe Reese Havens? That guy looked like a legitimate prospect to me in AFL.

by Manstein on Nov 23, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Trade him for Joey August!

Ha, I only say that because he is my cousin, not because that is even a realistic thought.

by jeffro on Nov 23, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions  

This could potentially be a badass thread.

One side will argue that Cust should be traded because he sucks and ZOMG STRICKOUTS and he’ll make $5M next year… but if he sucks there’s no way he’ll get an arby raise from 2.8M to 5M so we should just keep him… and yet he ONLY MAKES 5M and is a 30 HR threat so clearly he should be traded to SF for Cain and Posey!

Cust is such a fun topic. At the same time he manages to be very good, completely suck, be overpaid AND paid what he’s worth, be a nontender candidate AND trade fodder, etc

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 9:55 AM PST reply actions   3 recs

Not so much the stupid NY rag

but it’s been awhile since we’ve had a good, long debate about Cust and strickouts.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Pretty soon.....

some jerk (me) is gonna start arguing that his Ks are actually more beneficial overall, at least better than a ton of DPs. In the end, is a K any worse than any other kind of out? I think sometimes its better if there’s a runner on 1st, cause Cust is like slow motion jello running 90 feet, aka automatic DP on GBs.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Did you see where I said "it's been awhile"

that means it’s been gone over before. a lot. there’s really no need to do it again.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but at least Sneaky would be on the

popular side of the argument for a change.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I wasnt here....

lets giver-a-go I say! lol

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

rec'd...

You should do a fan post or PT should and breakdown and title it; “the narket value of Jack Cust”

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

market... (SP) error

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions  

I like it better as "narket"

maybe “snarket” value is best. Seeing as how mikev is absolutely right… there are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks.

by jeffro on Nov 23, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions   4 recs

That's an awesome metaphor.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Sigged

"There are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks." ~ jeffro

by CaliforniaJag on Nov 23, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, you are.

Personally, I think it’s too long for a sig. But it really is an awesome quote.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 24, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Yea....

I actually thought you were making up some weird new word to describe the dichotomy that is Jack Cust. Or would it be trichotomy with the BB the K and the HR?

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

also, I've been using that post on Jack Cust that I wrote as a writing sample for sports jobs I've been applying to

So this is always fun

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does

by bobnothing on Nov 23, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

I've always ben "meh" on Cust... neither a detractor nor a supporter.

I don’t believe he particularly adds much to the team, but neither do I believe he is an offensive liability, either. If anything, he’s probably blocking someone who may help the team more. Still… trade, him don’t trade him… whatever.

Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson

by UncleLeo on Nov 23, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions  

Cust is the perfect trade candidate

precisely because some love him and some hate him and because it is not the end of the world whether we keep him or not. All we need is for some GM to love him. If we receive a good offer, GREAT. If not, we keep him and move on OK. This is trade heaven for BB.

by redtopcowboy on Nov 23, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Makes sense to me.

Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson

by UncleLeo on Nov 24, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Not such a bad thing to consider

and I am sure that Beane will listen to all offers.

While I think Cust does have a lot to contribute to this team, and has a knack for staying healthy, our 40-man and system are flush with corner outfielders, many with better defensive versatility and higher upside than Cust. If the Mets or another team are willing to give us something that might be useful (infield prospects, mid-rotation pitchers, etc.), I would seriously consider such a deal. That $5M, or whatever it ends up being, could be invested in a Troy Glaus or similar player who could take at least part of the 3B duties in addition to a DH role (and give us more ability to get our OFers some PAs)

by MaineAthletic on Nov 23, 2009 10:35 AM PST reply actions  

the health thing

is probably the best reason to re-sign him. He’s one of our only players to avoid significant time on the dl.

But I could care less really, I’m over JC. I’d rather give his spot to one of the ‘up and comers’ than spend $5m on him, esp when we are rebuilding next year. Plus, we have several players who are potential DH candidates.

by sf drift king on Nov 23, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Who knows if he'll cost $5m though?

Coming off a down year, about to turn 30, a complete liability in the field. Offer $3m or settle for $3.5, and if it goes to arby then work “strickouts!!!111” into the conversation a few times and win hands down.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

That's what I don't get.

OMFG HE SUCKED LAST YEAR…

but…

OMFG HE’S GOING TO BE EXPENSIVE!!!!!

If he sucked last year, he won’t be expensive. If he’s expensive, it’s cause he was good.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not really an "if" thing

He wasn’t good last year. Ergo, he won’t be expensive.

I’d be pretty surprised if he gets over $4M.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I know this.

But somehow it seems that the Cust detractors want to hold 2 points against him: A) He sucks/strickouts/defense, and 2) He’s going to be expensive

Those can’t both be true.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

I mean, neither one of them is true

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Right.

Which is why I’m baffled at the nontender Cust notion that some people seem to think will help the team.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

It isn't about Cust, necessarily.

It’s about whether or not having his spot available could be useful for a team that’s almost certain not to contend next year, as well as if having four or five million dollars is more valuable than not having that sum. Nontendering seems like an extreme way of approaching it, since it would be better to actually get something back in a trade. In any case, trading or nontendering Cust is all about the fact that he’s not a vital cog of the team’s future.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

If that happened with everybody on the roster who isn't a vital cog of the team's future

We’d be left with like Suzuki, Sweeney, and most of the pitching staff.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

There's no slippery slope here, not that such arguments are valid anyway.

Moreover, other than the people you mention, I couldn’t care less if anyone else on the roster is traded or non-tendered, so long as it benefits the A’s of 2011 and beyond.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

It would be tough to field a team with only 13 players

11 of whom are pitchers.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Then there would be plenty of RiverCats to take their place.

Obviously, it won’t happen that way, but to suggest Cust needs to be kept because the floodgates will open for jettisoning other veterans is a non-starter.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

"Suzuki and Sweeney, and bow to Beanie!"

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Is that like the old Braves adage

“Spahn and Sain and pray for the Germans to start up WWII again and bomb the Polo Grounds when the Cardinals are in town?”

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 23, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

isn't this assuming

that the arbitration process values players the same way that the fans on this board does?

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

for clarity points….

Ata boy!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

As much as I like Jacque Cousteau

If Reese Havens or Daniel Murphy were offered I’d take the deal. I don’t see that happening. Therefore, Cust stays.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Nov 23, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions  

Wouldn't it be 'Jackue Custeau'?

Thats a good one. I like it!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Trade Him

Why have Cust take ABs away from guys that we need to get real looks at against ML pitching to see if they’re part of our future or not. We could use his spot for one of our outfielders to see if any of them will actually be part of a future here in Oakland. Buck, Cunningham, Davis, Sweeney, Hairston and maybe Carter later in the year if he can stick in the OF.

Not to mention we can use the DH spot to give us flexibility if we decide to bring up Wallace at some point. If McPherson, or Chavvy, or any of our bad back 3bmen stick, then we can rotate them with Wallace in the DH role to check out his bat later in the year.

Cust is not going to be a make or break for us competing next year. Paying him 3-5 million doesn’t make any sense to me. If we can get a prospect or even organizational filler and save that money, then lets save the money and invest in the draft, save for the future, use it to grab someone from a team that’s dumping salary, etc.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 10:45 AM PST reply actions  

Here's one reason

In 1982, Davey Lopes and Dwayne Murphy tied for the A’s team lead with 17 HRs. In 2010, I predict Suzuki and Ellis will tie for the A’ team lead with 9, followed closely by Sweeney, whose power will finally develop and yield a career high of 8.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

You forgot about Landon Powell

who will tie Sweeney with 8 but lead the A’s with 3 inside the park homeruns on 2 completely destroyed knees

by chipper1001 on Nov 23, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

I actually think Landon....

would rake in the DH spot with the occasional start behind the plate. His knees would get to stay fresh, and he still get the PAs. If Billy were to trade Cust, I think this would be the most immediate result, benefitting Landon tremendously, who has shown he can hit for power. I also think it offers Barton the advantage of staying in the lineup whenever Carter/Wallace or both arrive.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, look. I'm a HUGE Landon Powell guy.

A buddy of mine is from South Carolina and is a huge Gamecocks fan.

Getting that out of the way — Landon Powell is not a good enough hitter to DH, and he’s not a better hitter than Jack Cust. He’s pretty much perfectly suited to the role he’s in now, because his knees are wrecked.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Not to mention his liver :p

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Does he partake in the libations?

Oh, right. the HepC or whatever it is.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

no one said he was better than Cust at DH.....

or that he was perfect for the role, just that he would benefit the most in the immediate future (IE the 1st half of the season till prospects start arriving) from the extra PAs, and that he could hit for decent power (as he has shown) with those PAs. Especially early in the season when his legs are relatively fresh. Zukes takes almost all the starts behind the plate anyway.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Plainly.....

when kept fresh in the legs, the guy can rake.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

.229/.297/.429 is not what I would consider "raking"

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I love to rake

and given the same numbers of at bats, I believe my MLB line would be .000/.000/.000

by Future Ed on Nov 23, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I bet I could sneak in a base hit against somebody.

or at least a HBP or draw a few walks. I’m pretty short so I’d have a small strike zone

(insert Eddie Gaedel picture)

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

(crowds plate, leans in, prays)

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh you'd get hit by a few pitches, and we all know where.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Friggin ribcage. That shit hurts.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

DONT RUB IT!!! DONT RUB IT!!!!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

DO RUB IT IN!!! DO RUB IT IN!!!

Then smoke it. Yum! Ribs.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 23, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I would lean into a pitch

and glare at Lackey. I would have an OBP and a brawl.

[b]More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis[/b]
Does Rajai Davis know Al Davis?

by Athletics fan and runner on Nov 23, 2009 9:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I was at that Game in Anaheim with my brother!!

When Kendall charged Lackey! Oh the memories! Thank you sir for making my evening.

I am literally smiling from ear to ear from those good times. In fact, that may be the last game me and my brother attended together. I cant think of another since. He’s in the Navy, and never home.

Its funny how something so simple as a great memory can turn your whole day around. Ima go write him a e-mail right now!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions  

He also wasnt getting his PAs mostly as a DH.....

which is what I suggest to keep him ‘fresh’. IMO his number are better across the board if his legs (IE where his power is generated) are kept from squatting behin the plate. This is also why I recommend Recker, elsewhere in the thread) as the 3rd catcher to start the season if Cust is traded.

Then we could get a look at Recker and keep Landon’s legs fresh. Its not perfect, but its a good enough option until Carter/Wallace/etc/etc arrive.

The devil is in the details my friend!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

36 games at C

6 at 1B
3 at DH

Being a catcher is not what’s keeping Powell’s legs from “being Fresh”

It’s having blown out knees and hepatitis that fatigues him.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Give those 36 to Recker.....

or at least 18 in the 1st half while we wait for Wallace and Carter, and Powells legs are fresh and his bat is strong at the DH. 36 starts are a ton of starts behind the plate for a guy with two bad knees. Your numbers actually validate my point IMO.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Again.......

No squatting behind the plate keeps his knees fresh (relatively). Thats common sense brother……

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Then he has no value.

A guy with a sub-.300 OBP and a low .700s OPS is a shitty first baseman/DH.

It’s acceptable out of a backup catcher.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

What if his 1B defense is terrible?

Does that help?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

My ears perked up. I'm listening.

Continue?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

See, with the "Landon Powell Every Day 2010,"

you don’t just get a sub .300 OBP and low-.700s OPS. You also get a 1Bman who is not mobile, who isn’t familiar with the position, and who requires you to bench Daric Barton.

I’ll fax over the paperwork.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I dont get it.....

who’s talking about playing Landon at 1B? Not me……

I don’t think he’d last a week in the field at any position. In my plan, all he does is hit, (and only till hes replaced by Carter/Wallace/Doolittle) and Recker is the backup C. At no time do I recommend Landon at 1B.

God Help Us bro!

No, I like Barton there, which you may or may not find equally horrifying, but I don’t think I’ve been around long enough to know.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

But I get it......

you think its all terrible, which I respect……

The real question is, what does Billy wanna do? Errrr, what does Billy think is terrible? If he thinks Jack in RF is OK at any time, you would be hard pressed to convince me he wont experiment with Landon as an every day DH sans Cust to start the year……

Billy seems a little twisted like that……

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Putting Powell at DH instead of Cust

just downgrades your offense. Why would that be helpful?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

because

you’re trading Cust. He’s not saying to bench Cust in favor of Powell. He’s saying use Cust to add some value to the team in the future and in the short term he can be replaced at what is hopefully less than the future returns the A’s would get from the trade.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

That's fine, if a team wants to part with a lot for him

Cust strikes me as poor trade bait, because he’s classically a guy who is better than he appears to be — a guy whose trade value is the value of a strikeout record holder who can’t field but whose actual value is that of a .360 OBP and 25-30 HRs.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

some say he is regressing.....

I dont really know if thats the case, but if it is, wouldnt it make sense to trade him now?

I like Cust, (for many reasons, his story, etc) so Im on the fence, but then I realize that we are hard pressed to compete this year (though the optimist in me says we can!) and that Cust will be replaced eventually as the A’s continue to bring guys along.

In the end I find myself weighing the excitment of 25 HRs this season from our only real power source, and the realization we may have nothing to show for it in wins (playoffs? PLAYOFFS!! playoffs?), or prospects from a trade that could have been.

If we do though, trade Cust, the experimenter in me wants Landon at DH until pushed asside. If he really is gonna keel over and break at some point, I would like to get all I can from him at the plate first.

Plus, I just like the guy. He pleases me……..lol…..if that doesnt sound terrible. When I think of him, his HRs stand out to me. Its the first thing that pops into mind.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions  

If some say he is regressing

that is a good reason not to trade him to one of the ones who says he is regressing.

If we think he is regressing, and some don’t say so, then that would be a reason to trade him.

(By “regressing”, in this case, I mean getting worse, which I recognize is not always what the word means.)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

His pattern has basically been

to regress only when altering “who he is” for whatever reason he decided to do that, and then to bounce back strong again once he gave up trying to change his approach.

The guy’s OBP after the ASB in 2009 was .399 and that’s his most recent contribution.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah, that's a decent point to make

when people using ‘regressing’, they don’t just mean ‘getting worse’ – in the context of ‘regressing to the mean’, it can actually involving ‘having better outcomes’ (which is, of course, not the same thing as ‘getting better’), depending on which side of the mean the regression is coming from.

This isn’t a point aimed at any one in particular, just a general thing

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does

by bobnothing on Nov 23, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions  

To be fair, there is some evidence that

playing catcher actually damages players’ offense while they’re doing so. I.E. in general a guy will hit better if you move him off of catcher.

Not enough better that it would make sense to play him at 1B, of course. And DH has its own penalty, so it’s not clear he’d hit better there either.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Why do we care

how many home runs our team hits when we’re not in the playoffs? Didn’t daniel murphy lead the mets in hr’s this year with 14 or something? Would it have made a difference for the Mets to have 16 extra home runs this year? Unlikely.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Of course it would have made a difference for the Mets to have 16 extra HRs this year

They would have been a better team and won more games. Same with 32 extra doubles or 64 extra walks. If your point is, “Who cares what happens if you don’t make the playoffs?” then my answer is simple: I do. And while HRs aren’t the be all and end all, they are still among the better ways to be able to score points.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

you think

replacing Daniel Muprhyy with jack cust makes the Mets a playoff team last year? I politely disagree.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Thats not what he's saying

he’s saying it makes a difference to the fans watching and makes the game more enjoyable. If every team that wasn’t playoff bound took on your attitude the MLB would have very few satisfied customers

by chipper1001 on Nov 23, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions   5 recs

rec'd...

Exactly!

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Sigged

"There are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks." ~ jeffro

by CaliforniaJag on Nov 23, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Dammit

Wrong green post

"There are like 900 little wooden posts in the Jenga tower that is Jack Cust. So many to pull, so many ways for the whole debate to devolve into a pile of useless wooden blocks." ~ jeffro

by CaliforniaJag on Nov 23, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions  

:)

_

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Theres nothing like the HR in person....

The oooos and awwwwws from the crowd, the standing and the cheering and the clapping! Its good for the heart, and my heart hurts a lot when watching the A’s, if not the box score.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

trading Cust doesn't necessarily entail a drop off in HRs

His HR/AB and BB/PA are trending down since he came up with us in 2007. I’m not positive that we don’t have someone or a platoon of guys that replace his HRs while giving us a look to our needs in the future, thus enabling us to get back to fielding a competitive team faster.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Landon is good for 20+......

IMO. If he gets the PAs at DH, and lets Zukes get the vast majority of starts behind the plate, his knees can stay fresh (relatively) and he can utilize that power he generates. But with two many starts behind the plate, his legs will weaken along with his power.

I wonder if Billy would consider starting the season with Recker as a 3rd catcher so Landon could focus on the DH? We could find out if Recker is good enough in the backup role. (probably not, but who knows till you let him try) That of course all depends on if Cust does in fact get traded, non tendered.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

lol "too many starts"

though ‘two starts’ may be two too many on his rickety knees.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Home runs are fun.
Why do we care how many home runs our team hits when we’re not in the playoffs?

Because the more HRs we hit, the more likely that one of them will happen at a game you happen to be attending. And when you’re at a game and the A’s hit a home run, that’s a lot of fun.

If you’re locked in a cell from April through September and don’t get to see any games till the playoffs, well, then I guess your point of view would make sense. Otherwise it’s silly. Are all home runs hit by the Royals, Pirates or Orioles completely meaningless?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions  

I get that HRs are fun

But how many HRs are we really going to lose by replacing Cust? Is he the 2007 Cust? Or the 2009 Cust?

In the best case of a Cust trade scenario he plays more like the 2009 Cust next year.
In which case MAYBE he hits 25 HR, maybe his HR total drops even more…. I would venture to guess the player or platoon replacing him will hit at least 10 HRs. So you might lose out on 15 HRs for one season – or one every 11 games or so.

In the worst case of a Cust trade scenario he hits 35 hrs like the 2007 Cust and the replacements hit 10 or more. So we lose out on 25 HRs – Or one every six games.

While I agree that it’s more fun to watch HRs, trading Cust is most likely not going to severely change the number of HRs you’ll watch next year. And it allows us flexibility to check out our OF situation, invest in the draft/international free agents/further prospects, etc. Which could allow us to watch more HRs in future regular seasons and get us to the postseason faster – enabling us to watch even more home runs.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

It's more than that, though

HRs are an important part of an overall offense. They may not be as important as you’d think if you watched ESPN, but they are still among the more important components. Kind of like pitchers and the fastball.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

agreed

so lets figure out how to get more HRs in our offense. i just don’t think Cust is the answer. In the short or long term.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, long term it's Carter, Wallace, maybe Cunningham

Short-term, I don’t see how you’d likely do any better than Cust if you want your 25 HRs to come with a good OBP and a salary under $5mil. And there’s really no reason to think Cust won’t hit 25 HRs since that’s his low over 3 years while his high is 33.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

hmm

well if Cunninngham and Carter are possible long term solutions why not give them a shot this year to see how they do? And maybe help them grow in the future… Especially if the short term hit is 10 HRs and the long term benefit is potentially much more than 10 HRs…

I don’t think the logic that because he hasn’t hit less than 25 before so there’s no reason to think he’ll hit less next year makes much sense. Before this year he hadn’t hit less than 30 over a full season so he shouldn’t have hit less than 30 with that logic. His HR numbers have trended down…

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

When they're ready, I'm sure the A's will give Carter & Cunningham a shot

But not at DH. Why not have 3 good hitters instead of 2, or 2 instead of 1? Jack Cust, like it or not, is one of the A’s best hitters and is certainly their best slugger.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't like it. I'd prefer he was their 9th best slugger.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd prefer he was tied for 1st and tied for 9th

9 Custs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh the humanity!!!

Errrr the mass of humanity!

Chugga Chugga Chugga Chugga Chooooo Chooooo!!!

(+10 for sound effects)

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Cunningham and Carter

Don’t have to be DH’s – but if you trade Cust you get more roster flexibility to use in the DH spot to give the young guys a chance to get acclimated to ML pitching. We have a bunch of corner OF and corner IF’s.

Considering contending is highly doubtful next year, why clog up the DH spot with a declining slugger if you can get something of value for him now? Note – that something of value, like I’ve said earlier can be in prospects, increased draft/international free agent spending, roster flexibility, etc.

The point is not to just get rid of one good hitter – but to actually give guys a shot to see what we need in building for the future, because Cust, like it or not, is not part of that future. I’m not advocating giving him away – I’m just saying that if we can get value then we should go for it because we have plenty of pieces that we can put in his place without losing a lot of production.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions  

That's fine when they're ready, but

in April and May Wallace/Carter will likely be in AAA, and when they come up they won’t initially be full-time DHs. So the position of full-time DH is wide open for a while.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Buck might be healthiest at DH. Doolittle too.

I wouldn’t object to platooning either with Cunningham there.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions  

First off, Doolittle has only had one injury in his career

Second, why in the world would anyone ever platoon at the DH spot? Talk about a waste of roster space.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Well sure, unless the guys are backing up at other postions.

As for Doolittle, he just had surgery that may or may not delay his participation in spring training. So his one injury has been a big one.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Absolutely

I’m not trying to minimize its impact, just saying that it doesn’t really presage other, different injuries.

Hey, at least he’s not rubbing himself with horse placentas.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 9:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you a Gooner?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 1:17 AM PST up reply actions  

i agree

that Wallace/Carter shouldn’t start the year on the big league roster. However, we still have plenty of internal candidates to use as a DH if we trade Cust. As noted below – Buck, Cunningham, Chavvy/McPherson, Powell, Patterson, etc. If things were really falling our way one of those guys would actually turn into something useful instead of sitting in AAA.

And keeping Cust risks him continuing to lose trade value. The last two year’s he’s had better half than firsts – suggesting that his value would be lower after another half of poor splits. Not to mention the very real possibility that the man is simply regressing.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Dont forget about.......

Cardenas and Doolittle! ;P

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

The question I have is not how many home runs..

but it is how many of the strike outs occured with runners in scoring position?
Example would be if he hit 25 HRs and 12 were with no one on, and 10 were with only 1 on.. and he struck out 120 times and 75 of them were with runners in scoring position… then his strike out rate is more important than his home runs.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Nov 23, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

haha

i didn’t know where to hit recommend so i just wrote it… then i figured it out later on and didn’t feel like recommending it anymore.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Ha ha no worries.

Looks like someone covered for you though.

by LongLiveLangerhans on Nov 23, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions  

This post fills me with despair

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions  

It's cool, I took care of it for you.

I’m gettin all SABR with it and shit down there.

or not. but it’s funny.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

You do understand that Cust doesn't control whether or not there are RISP when he bats?

and, also… it’s very easy to look this stuff up on baseball-reference.com under Cust’s 2009 splits page

To make it easy:

Out of 612 plate appearances, only 175(!) were with RISP. 28.5%

Out of 185 STRICKOUTS, 51 were with RISP. 27.5%

Out of 25 home runs, 9 were with RISP. 36%

Out of 70 RBI, 51 were with RISP. 72%

Aside from telling us absolutely nothing, this tells us that Jack Cust strikes out less often, homers more often, and drives in the majority of his runs when runners are in scoring position.

JACK CUST IS FUCKING CLUTCH.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   5 recs

lol...

flagged

jk jk

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

This is misleading.

RISP is defined as runners on 2B and/or 3B. With Cust, who pretty much hits HRs or nothing… even runners on 1B are “in scoring position”.

Sorry, I just had to say it. LOL!

Every hitter likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream. But you don't like it when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon. That's what it feels like when Nolan Ryan's thrown balls by you. ~Reggie Jackson

by UncleLeo on Nov 24, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You da man…

This Bud-Light is for you!

Unless you prefer Dos Equis XX ?

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

i don't get it

I’m new to the board so I’m not exactly sure what kinda insult this is…
But I have been known to live vicariously through myself.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

This isn't an insult, just a statement about preference of beer...

I was laughing at Nico and how he thinks Suzuki and Ellis will lead the A’s with 8 hrs and you know, he might be right, assuming Cust is gone !!!

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Gotcha

Sorry for misunderstanding. And while I’m assuming it’s hyperbole, I’d just throw my two cents in that while no one may hit 30 HRs, I don’t think Cust will do that either, and I do think we have a handful of guys who could shoot for 15-20 given consistent playing time.

As far as enjoying the game – personally the pleasure I get out of watching Cust’s HRs are very very very far outweighed by watching him strike out with runners on.

Also just a note about the original article – the Mets would be FOOLS to acquire Cust in that new park.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

+100000000000000000000000

Only person to mention the not so friendly confines of CITI field. I think I would pay to see Cust try and play defense there. Can you say ‘blooper real HOFer’?

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Stupid CITI Group!

Give us our friggin $45 Billion back TARP Fiends, and sell your naming rights! These people have no shame!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

So.. wait...
Cust is not going to be a make or break for us competing next year. Paying him 3-5 million doesn’t make any sense to me. If we can get a prospect or even organizational filler and save that money, then lets save the money and invest in the draft, save for the future, use it to grab someone from a team that’s dumping salary, etc.

You want to dump Cust’s salary… so that we can take on a salary dump?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

that was one way we could use the money

not THE way to use the money. The trade would give us the flexibility to make that trade if, somehow, we overperformed (possibly because those ABs/field performed above Cust’s ability) and were still in the race. Then we have flexibility to use that money to fix a hole (short term option at 3rd if our internal options haven’t worked out, pick up some defense at SS, etc).

Additionally, we could use that money as a throw in on another trade to net us some higher prospects (like we did in the Kotsay trade – no way did we get Devine without throwing that money in with the trade)

Point being, the trade gives us flexibility.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

Im down……..as of this moment……..though if we get the shaft in a trade I may change my mind.

I reserve the right to be fickle in this matter.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

The only way I see the A's dealing Cust

is if Beane thinks he can pry a solid prospect away from a team looking to add a power bat off the bench or a DH, and Beane thinks he can sign a Vlad/Glaus type for around the same amount Cust would be making next season. The Mets really make no sense because Cust would end up as the everyday LF, and as we all know, thats a bad thing. I could see an AL team needing a DH having interest, but I don’t consider him more then a Matt Stairs type player in the NL and there are many more less expensive candidates out there for teams to grab up without giving up minor league talent.

All I know is Vlad or Glaus can be had for $5-6 million next season, ill take one of them and whatever prospect we get in return for Cust, over Cust in 2010. If not, I really don’t see the sense in dealing our only legitimate power threat on the roster.

by JPShark on Nov 23, 2009 10:58 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Should have read

*if Vlad or Glaus can be had for $5-6 million next season

by JPShark on Nov 23, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I would assume that if Vlad is going to make 5-6M next season

He’ll still be playing with Thousand Oaks.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions  

If they can....

that sounds like a good plan.

Not to mention Billy would unload Vlad or Glaus at the deadline bringing in even more returns (like Ladendorf from the Cabrera trade) even if they are probably mediocre returns.

And if by some miracle the A’s are in contention, Billy could keep um for a run at the division/WC.

Good call!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

What about in regards to SP????

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

IMO

if Duke goes elsewhere Billy will pursue another veteran along the lines of a Tomko level guy.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

We cant take Billy too seriously.....

as GMs are always trying to throw up smoke…..

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

If you try to smoke 15 cigarettes at once, that'll probably happen.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

not if you drink bourbon at the same time...

the two cancel each other out…

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 23, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions  

forgot about that......

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

What is the Interst rate on the trade yielding at this point?

Ask Bernanke?

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 11:24 AM PST reply actions  

Booooo FRB!!

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions  

C'mon folks, make this green

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 23, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

grover,

I rec’d and fixed your name to have the lower case “g”….

by MMunoz33 on Nov 23, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Custy

Great post! Best ballplayer in the world. Do Not Trade!!

by J Canseco on Nov 23, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

This is the only important point
Cust’ll be worth more to the A’s in 2010 than anyone else, so unless the A’s need that money to sign Aroldis Chapman or a long-term solution at 3rd, than I see no reason why the team "needs" to get rid of him.

If it’s true that Cust will be worth more to the A’s than anyone else, then certainly it doesn’t make sense to get rid of him. I don’t think it’s a given, though. If someone wants to offer something useful for him, there’s no reason the A’s shouldn’t take it. The team no more “needs” to keep him than they need to get rid of him.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Mostly true.

I should have qualified this statement a bit…“At below $5 million, Cust will likely be more valuable to the A’s than any other team.”

Once again, this winter’s free agent market will be flooded with no glove/all bat older DH types that will probably all offer similar overall production to what Cust brings: namely, a .800-.850 OPS with give or take 20-25 homeruns…I’m thinking of guys like Thome, Delgado, Glaus, Vlad, Dye, Nady, Blalock, Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Giambi, Stairs, etcetera…

I would venture to guess that any of those guys will be REALLY lucky to get more than $4 or $5 million guaranteed in 2010. So….since everyone one of them are now freely available and are likely unburdened by draft pick compensation, why would any team in their right mind give up anything of value PLUS take on Cust’s $4 million +/- 2010 salary when they could just as easily pay just that salary or even slightly less and get a comparable player?

From the A’s point of view…sure, they could non-tender Cust, save the money and hope to sign a comparable player for a small amount less than what they figured Cust would have gotten in 2010, however, the whole “Cust is worth more to the A’s than other teams” is because Cust actually stays on the field (unlike ALL of the other guys on that list) and also has proven to possess an ability to hit for power in the unfriendly confines of the Coliseum.

Cust’ll be an ‘A’ in 2010, IMHO.

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Nov 23, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Could be.

I imagine that Cust’s club control makes him a little more attractive than some of the folks you mention, but there are indeed other Custs out there for the taking.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Nov 23, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

"The A’s will not break Carter or Wallace into the big leagues as DH’s"

I guess the question here is who do you value more long term, Cust or Barton? Trading Cust seems to guarantee everyday ABs to Barton once Wallace or Carter or both arrive.

It could be….

1B Carter
3B Wallace
DH Barton

or

RF Carter
1B Wallace
DH Barton

or 1B Barton
3B Wallace
DH Carter

and so on and so forth…..

I think if Billy wants to give Barton a full year to try and carry over his play from Septembers, jettisoning Cust makes sense.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

as does leaving Carter/Wallace in the minors

to work on their defense and ensure their bats are big league ready.

wallace at 3b, carter in LF.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

Carter and Wallace will, in all likelihood, not be ready for the majors in April of 2010. For both, I think it’ll be a combination of offense/defense. So there’s no point in making Opening Day roster decisions (like aggressively looking to “jettison” Jack Cust) to make room for either of them, especially since, like you pointed out, when one or both or ready, they are likely to replace whomever are the stand-ins at 3rd and LF respectively, rather than Jack Cust at DH.

I foresee that Barton will be the Opening Day 1st baseman in 2010, and while Billy might still “like” him as a person and a player, I think he’s also stated numerous times that he expects his corner players to hit for power…so, if a few months go by and the guy is slumping or not hitting for the power he is capable of, then I could easily see him replaced by Carter/Wallace/Doolittle, all 3 of whom should definitely get a long period of AAA seasoning to start the year.

What I’m trying to say here, in response to s0sNe@kYbUtY?, is that the way I see things, there is no pressing or impending roster crunch where it’s currently necessary to trade/non-tender Jack Cust, especially while he remains the team’s best hitter and only one who has EVER hit more than 20 homers in a major league season (not counting the corpse of Eric Chavez).

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Nov 23, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

hence the words 'long term'

IE beyond the 1st half of next season, or even 2010 as a whole.

Also Im iffy on the fact that “they (Carter/Wallace) are likely to replace whomever are the stand-ins at 3rd and LF respectively,” cause this assumes both will be able to play those positions in the Bigs which is totally up in the air right now. Thus, all the possible combos.

I think Its highly likely Carter and/or Wallace will be relegated to either 1B or DH, (I hope not but….) and if thats the case, then both Barton and Cust are out a luck. Instead I like to choose the median route. One, most likely Carter in RF as his athleticism is underrated, will likely be able to handle the transition, and if thats the case, then Wallace, Barton, and Cust are gonna have to fight over 1B and DH. Wallace definitely gets one spot, and I think Barton is a better long term answer for the other.

I do, however, agree there is no short term roster crunch as Wallace and Carter should start in AAA. That being the case, Cust can totally be traded when that time comes in favor of Barton if he can transfer his Sept #s to a full season in 2010.

I want to make it totally clear that I hope Wallace and Carter will stick at 3B and RF respectively, but given the uncertainty at this point, i choose to split the difference and assume only one will actually make that transition away from 1B/DH

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Ok, since you kind of agree that Jack Cust doesn't "have to be gotten rid of.."

…it seems like we agree for the most part.

- Begin 2010 with Cust as the everyday DH and Barton as the everyday 1B
- Begin 2010 with Wallace and Carter at AAA
- Assess the big league team after a few months and assess the development of Carter and Wallace along the same time frame
- Make changes to the major league roster in mid-season if an opportunity to improve the club for both the long-term and short-term presents itself.

Sound fair enough? I don’t think anyone in this thread/on this site believes that Jack Cust is the long-term answer at DH for the A’s or that he should be getting playing time if a) Carter/Wallace are major league ready offensively and b) prove that they can’t hold down any position other than DH…

But since those last two issues I touched on are not really relevant/resolved right now and Cust will still likely be the team’s best hitter come April 2010, I think he should stick around…if the DH slot is really needed for the young guys by mid-season, then sure, trade him for a T-shirt that says, “Strickouts are fun” on it…or just wait until 2011 and non-tender him.

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Nov 23, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

No! We must decide everything NOW!

Because I’m bored, that’s why.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

(wishing he were BB in the worst way)

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions  

All this is fine, but if you can get more for Cust now than you think you'll be

able to midseason, I think you do it. DH isn’t a tough position to fill.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh.......

I didnt think of it like that…….

If he is regressing, as so many say, then it would indeed make sense to trade him now….

Errrr this is so confusing……..

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

If I might get pedantic about terminology,

we keep discussing whether Cust is “regressing” without any indication of what he might be regressing toward. If he were to regress toward his career average, for example, that would mean he’d get better, not worse. Indeed, if you believe he (or any other player) is in decline, that typically means you think he won’t regress.

So in the interest of clarity, I suggest that if we want to talk about Cust getting worse, we just say “getting worse”, to avoid further confusion. And if you really do mean regression, specify what you see him regressing toward.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 6:11 PM PST up reply actions  

my bad

i was using regress to mean move backward… not in the statistical regress toward the mean sense. poor terminology choice. i meant decline

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions  

"I'm sorry, sir, but I'm afraid your MasterCard has been regressed."

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

"No, Nico, this escalator regresses."

No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.

by danmerqury on Nov 23, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

oh hey someone made a joke

at someone else’s expense after they clarified and apologized for the misunderstanding. Let me hop on too! And not add anything of any worth to the conversation! Look at me! I’m so clever! I can think of another way to say decline and instead insert regress in!!!

“No, danmerquery, lets lay on a regression!”

Am I cool and clever now too???

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

You're new here, huh?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

ha

yes. and maybe not for long with hop-ons like this.

by DCAthletics on Nov 23, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Need a little thicker skin methinks

The jokes were not at your expense and, if anything, had little to do with you. Now, if you want to complain that the jokes (that weren’t at your expense) still weren’t particularly funny and want to leave as a result, well, that I can get. We’re a groan worthy bunch.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 23, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions  

The posts, the games, and in fact, the sport itself

are merely the straight man to feed us lines upon which we build a series of ever so complicated joshings, like we do…

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 24, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

+1

Plenty of people actually get snarked at directly. If you’re going to take offense when it isn’t even directed at you, you’re really not going to last long.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 24, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

How DARE you?

{just in case}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 24, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Two things....

First, we do, it seems, agree (tyj=thank ya Jesus!)

Second, can I have the T-Shirt?

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Here's a dream scenario

AUGUST 2010 LINEUP:

1B: Barton
2B: Cardenas
SS: Pennington
3B: Wallace
C: Suzuki
LF: Carter
CF: Davis
RF: Sweeney
DH: whoever we trade Ellis for (when do we start talking about that, by the way?)

by PL78 on Nov 25, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

replace Pennington with.......

Green (I know its nearly impossible for him to make it that quick, but we are talking dream scenario here, lol) in August, put Carter at DH, and Desme/Brown in LF (which ever is doing better come August in AAA).

Its Billy’s dream experiment/young player lineup, and its Lew Wolfs dream cause he doesn’t have to spend any money.

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 27, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

December 12

Is this really a deadline? I mean, we could sign him to arbitration and then still trade him after that, right?

I’m in favor of keeping Cust, but that’s basically because I think he’s easily worth the ~$4m he’s likely to cost. Other teams also know he’s worth his likely salary, and that’s exactly why he has trade value now. I would assume that’s also why he will have trade value after we sign him as well.

Is there some rule I don’t know that says you can’t trade a guy after re-signing him?

In any case, the one thing the A’s absolutely shouldn’t do is just non-tender him. If for whatever reason we decide we don’t want him, at least trade him for something.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 12:06 PM PST reply actions  

I believe you are correct.

Saarloos was traded to the Reds within a couple days of signing with the A’s, IIRC. It really can’t be over-emphasized how full of it the New York Daily News is.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Nov 23, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Enh, it's just the usual local sports blog pap.

I wouldn’t single out the Daily News for it. Lots of places print junk like that. You can find links to them at MLBTR.

I think the most egregious error is guessing that the cost of acquiring Cust would be only a single-A prospect. I think that grossly underrates the market value of his contract.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

It's pretty sad that MLBTR is more viable than its SBN counterpart though.

I subscribed to that blog thinking it would actually have some decent stuff. Instead I see that the Mets could go after Jack Cust to play 1B.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

It's right there in the title: Rumors

MLBTR purports to point you to all the rumors that are going around, and it does a good job of that.

It’s not part of MLBTR’s mission to filter out the rumors that are stupid.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions  

No, I was talking about MLB Daily Dish.

MLBTR is pretty much a huge link dump. It serves a purpose I guess.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah, but did you make a comment there? :p

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes. because it's baffling to me that somebody would post that kinda stuff.

It’s like the guy is playing MVP baseball or something.

Oh shit, Jack Cust has a 78 power! The Mets need a guy to put at first cause Delgado is gone! PERFECT!!!!!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions  

And this baffles you?

Some guy plays MVP baseball. He simple-mindedly assumes the same logic applies to real baseball. He posts about it on some website.

Which of these is a surprise?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, when the "some website" is specifically dedicated to "MLB Trades, Signings, and Rumors"

You’d figure there would be at least a rudimentary understanding of the way it works.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought you were talking about a comment.

If it’s a main post, then yeah, that’s pretty bad. Maybe another case of declining standards as it goes more commercial, a la RotoWire.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I just kinda meant the site in general.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 23, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

and not to pile on, but...

The newest “report” that the Mets MIGHT want Russ Branyan just slays me.

In one sentence it mentions that he had 31 homers and a .350 OBP, and that he already rejected a 1 year deal from the Mariners.

In the next sentence is says that the Mets would be interested if he came at a reduced rate.

UMM WTF?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 24, 2009 9:04 AM PST up reply actions  

A friend of mine once had a job interview at book soup on sunset

When they offered her the job, they told her that it was minimum wage. She asked why she would did they think she would work for minimum wage. The manager told her it was because she would be working at the coolest bookstore in LA. My friend declined the job.

Maybe NY writers think people will sign with the Mets because its coolest baseball club in Queens.

by Future Ed on Nov 24, 2009 9:42 AM PST up reply actions  

If the author of the NYDN piece had cited at least one source,

or if he had written “Jack Cust is a possible trade candidate” rather than “Jack Cust is expected to be traded” I would find the piece much more palatable. Taking liberties with hyperboles and unsourced claims is unlikely to get you far in any school of journalism, and yet somehow its tolerated in abundance by papers like the Daily News and the Examiner. I’m not disagreeing with your point about the Daily News, or sports journalism in general, being un-unique in this regard, but I agree with grover: this article offers next to nothing worthy of contemplation.

As for MLBTR, at least it has the forethought to label rumors as such, and as you mentioned, it is more of a linking ground for other people’s rumors rather than itself a progenitor of madness. I think of it as a historiography of the media phenomena of MLB trades.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Nov 23, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I, for one, would love to see how the enlightened NY media and fans would handle someone who hits .230 and strikes out 200 times

And you think Cust is a polarizing figure here?

The guy could get on base at a .450 clip and hit 35 bombs and still get crucified for hitting .230 with 200 strikeouts.

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Nov 23, 2009 3:46 PM PST reply actions  

the truth here is.....

undeniable……

"I mean, come on, man. I'm a vet. Don't talk to me like that. If they do, I'll just smile." Nnamdi Asomugha

by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 23, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm a big Cust fan,

so I hope this isn’t true. Seems like now would be the perfect time to sell low on an underrated player.

 If it is though, I wouldn’t mind seeing Eric Patterson and some other guys get some AB’s from the DH spot.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 23, 2009 6:38 PM PST reply actions  

I see the DH spot as a good place for guys

who are good hitters and lousy defenders.

I don’t see it as a place to get at-bats for second-rate hitters who aren’t good enough to make the lineup at their normal defensive position.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

How do we know Eric Patterson is a second-rate hitter?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 23, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

True -- he could be third-rate.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly! -this is the type of open mindedness I'm looking for!

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 23, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

CHONE projects him at -2; James at about +5

Either would be way below average for a DH, where he’d need to be +17.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it's not like he's Jose Vidro or something

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 7:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Those projections only give him 250 AB's.

Hasn’t he earned a shot to show us how he can actually hit at the big league level?

Also, where are CHONE projections available?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 23, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions  

James had him at +2 in 250 AB. I extrapolated to get to +5

CHONE projections are available here. At any rate, he projects as a roughly average major league hitter, not a good Plan A for starting DH.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 23, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions  

I keep looking at these and have come to realize-

it may be a better to hope for these #’s, instead of feeling they are a bit under-projected.
But Barton and Swooney?

Anyone know when the pitching projections come out?

by brian.only on Nov 23, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Damn you, Raul Padron!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 23, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't worry, he's a free agent now

We won’t have him to kick around anymore.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I think I'm missing something-

probably multiple things. Anyways, Jack Cust had a .342 wOBA last year, and came out as a 1 WAR players, not great but not terrible. James extrapolated projections, if I’m getting this right, have Patterson at .338 wOBA, yet he comes out well below average?

At any rate, I think projection systems are great, but my main point here is Patterson deserves some AB’s.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 24, 2009 12:49 AM PST up reply actions  

1 WAR is not only not great, it's pretty bad for a starting player. Think

Bob Crosby. Sorry I made you think about that, but it was for your own good.

Cust 2009 — 10 Batting Runs Above Avg – 6 Fielding Runs Below Avg – 12 Runs Positional (Mostly DH, but also RF) + 20 Runs for the difference btw Avg and Replacement = 12 Runs Above Replacement or 1 WAR approx.

Let’s assume Patterson is an exactly average major league hitter and fielding LF. His UZR is actually -10/150 Games, but we can be charitable.

Patterson 2010 Projection — 0 Batting RAA + 0 Fielding RAA – 7.5 Runs Positional + 20 Runs for the difference btw Avg and Repl = 12.5 RAA or 1 WAR Approx

IOW, both Cust 2009 and Patterson 2010 might be OK as bench players but were/would be bad regulars.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 1:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Oops, Patterson should be 12.5 RAR, not RAA

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 1:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Alright, got it.

Thank you.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 24, 2009 1:38 AM PST up reply actions  

I want Patterson to get the same opportunity

any second-stringer gets. If he looks good in spring training that earns him some occasional spot starts. And if he impresses us in his few at-bats while someone else doesn’t — I figure it’s a pretty good bet somebody in the starting lineup will suck… — then he earns himself more starts. And if he keeps it up then he earns his way into the regular lineup, like Rajai did last year.

But I don’t want to want to give him freebie starts just for the sake of lots of playing time on the theory that with enough consistency he might get good. Sure, regular playing time can help E-Pat, but it can help anyone he might replace just as much, and they’re better to begin with.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 23, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I realize I'm a total Patterson homer...but...

are they really freebie starts if he puts up an .871 OPS in AAA and starts to come around in his limited time in the bigs?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 24, 2009 12:53 AM PST up reply actions  

The trouble is that he projects as something like a .720 - .750 OPS guy in the

majors. That’s OK if you’re an average fielding SS or a bench player, but not as a starting LF.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 1:30 AM PST up reply actions  

See, I guess I'm missing why he projects to be such a miserable hitter in the bigs.

I can definitely see his glove not being good enough to play, however.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 24, 2009 1:39 AM PST up reply actions  

It's basically because he's an average major league hitter and starting

left fielders are supposed to rake.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 4:21 AM PST up reply actions  

It's a combination of ARL and the fact that the PCL is a hitter's league

It’s the same reason why Everidge doesn’t project very well. Basically if you’re 26 in the PCL, you better be putting up Nelson Cruz-like numbers if you want a major league job. (The flipside of this is of course that pitchers who put up average-looking lines in the PCL can be effective in the majors.)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 24, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

ARL?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 24, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Age Relative to Level

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 24, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait. SERIOUSLY?????

All this time I thought it was Age Relative to Lipstick. And it made way more sense. Baseball is harrrd. :-(

-Cindi

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 24, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for the answer.

That all makes sense.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Nov 24, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand why you'd want to see more of Patterson

but in all serious, if I never see him dribble a throw in from Left Field again, it’ll be too soon.

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does

by bobnothing on Nov 24, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

in all serious?

is there an SBN function that can delete all posts I make before 9am?

I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does

by bobnothing on Nov 24, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Rec'd

The Jason Tyner school of DHing is not one that I want to import to Oakland.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 23, 2009 9:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Thoughts on the subject

Well I read like the first half the thread, could use cliff’s for the second half of the thread but here are my thoughts:

1.) It’s retarded to trade/non-tender Cust in order to create more at-bats for Landon Powell. Come on Powell supporters, who are you kidding? He’s a decent backup catcher, and if he has some pop and gets on-base a little, it’s nice to have him around as a PH, but don’t count on anything more.

2.) It’s completely fine to let Cust go because of the logjam in the OF and the player’s in AAA. If trading/non-tendering Cust gives Buck/Cunningham more AB’s in the OF AND more importantly just opens up the DH spot for Carter or some combination of Carter/Barton/Squeezed out OFer, its completely fine.

3.) Just repeating, Carter Carter Carter. Get Carter some AB’s, at this point he’s got a higher upside than Cust, he’ll be 23 to start the season. It’s OK imo to skip AAA to save a few bucks now and rush a guy like him.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 10:50 AM PST reply actions  

But why would rushing Carter help him or the A's?

Why not let him refine his hitting for a couple months, then come up, and be under contract through 2016? I don’t see a downside. No, 23 isn’t “super young” for a prospect first coming up, but it’s not “super old” either.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 25, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

It's not really rushing Carter per se

If you can save $5M now by dumping Cust, I think Carter becomes your best DH-option in the system. He mashed AA, he didn’t do much in his very short stint in AAA. But it’s a year later, if you have a spot for him to play everyday in the majors, just let him play. My point is at 23, he’s just ready for a shot if there’s a spot open for him, and saving $5M today might be a pretty good reason to open a spot for him (Worry about his under contract til 2016 or 2015 later). Plus if he’s epic fail, you can send him back down and still get your contract through 2015. If he works out, he was a good gamble.

The point is, the A’s need some serious power. And he’s an almost ready, legit major league power prosepect. I think it’s a perfectly reasonable strategy to just give him a major league shot and see what he does with it, if it makes sense to save the $5M on Cust.

Otherwise, just pay Cust the $5M, whatever.

I’m more saying it’s OK to dump Cust to get Carter playing time, but I don’t really see why else to do it rather than saying let’s rush Carter!

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess my point is that when Carter is called up

should depend solely on when he’s ready. If it’s April, great, but if it’s June, call him up in June. He doesn’t figure to out-perform Cust, or even approach Cust’s performance, in 2010.

I also think the figure “$5M” is getting thrown around carelessly. I’d expect the A’s and Cust to settle closer to $3M (not that I know much about salaries and arbitration) and that’s just not a lot to play your leading HR hitter so that you can call up your promising slugger when he’s ready, no sooner no later.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 25, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I was guessing about $4M.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 25, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Probably depends on arbitration vs. settlement

I would think $4M is around what Cust could ask for/win, while 2.5M is what the A’s might offer/win. If they settle, I suspect it’ll be for something in the 3’s. And I say this as someone who knows absolutely nothing about what he’s discussing.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 25, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I can. He also has his fielding ability,

his batting average, his K numbers, etc. As we’ve seen on AN, it’s easy to make pretty dramatic cases in both directions for Jack Cust.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 25, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

What is the point in saving this (approx.)5M on Cust, exactly?

It’s already been said before that the player payroll is separate from the draft and/or international FA budget.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 25, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

To give flexibility later in the season.

Say Chris Carter is posting a solid 850 OPS and contributing to having the team doing well headed into July. They could afford to take on some salary to upgrade a position they might have otherwise not been able to take on.

I’m not convinced Cust is a shoo-in to be better than Carter next year. Lot’s of older rookies who are mentally ready/mature enough to play in the majors can step right in after doing pretty well in AA. Carter could be a huge bust, or he could have a solid Uggla like rookie year basically skipping AAA.

Cust was pretty bad last year (and to answer mikev’s IF HE WAS BAD LAST YEAR HE WONT MAKE ARB MONEY, unfortunately he led the team in HRs and had lots of RBIs which is what matters in arbitration)… If he hits next year like he did last year, he obviously can’t be allowed to play the field because he’d be around replacement level or worse I think factoring in defense— Which leaves DH where he’s only acceptable if he’s the best answer in the organization. I’m just not that high on Cust and don’t mind giving a young guy a shot. Would rather gamble that Carter is major league ready and posts a nice high 800 OPS rookie campaign, and if he sucks, there are other options.

And yes if budgets are all independent and we are playing with OPM, then I can say take Cust’s $$ of the books and be players in the veteran free agent market or trade for Dunn so you at least have a monster bat running around the OF sucking instead of a guy you hope can be like Dunn on a good day.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

That's an awful lot of wishcasting for Carter

I’m just as excited as the next guy about Carter, but realistically there’s very, very little chance he has an .850 OPS for Oakland next year.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 25, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

It's just risk vs reward

I don’t want to pay $4M-$5M for a guy we basically have to hope puts up 800 for at DH. I’d rather just let the young guys play. If Carter’s good, then great. If not, more at-bats for Cunningham. Cust isn’t good enough that he should be getting paid $4m-$5m blocking younger guys on a team that’s not expected to contend.

I could go either way, I wouldn’t be upset at the strategy of paying him that money and letting Cust DH, it’s just I don’t see a huge need to do so. I don’t think it would be a good strategy to clear Cust to get Powell at-bats.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

He's not blocking anybody.

Carter (and Cunningham, for that matter) haven’t yet shown to be MLB ready. There’s no reason to rush Carter.

Sure, if he comes into Spring Training and hits like .600 and plays adequate defense in left field? Let him play. I don’t see that happening though.

Besides, you’re pretty much totally wrong saying “we basically have to hope he puts up an .800 OPS” but apparently you didn’t want to look at the numbers or something.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 25, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you're overestimating Carter-the-23-year-old-rookie

Guys who swing and miss a lot, and have trouble handling breaking pitches, are far more likely to go through a painful adjustment period in the big leagues than they are to thrive immediately.

The best argument I can think of for “rushing” Carter in April, 2010 is the old “get the struggles out of the way so he can actually be good sooner” one, and I think it’s faulty because he still has much to learn before he’s ready to master major league offspeed pitches.

He has always be regarded (go back to analysis at the time of the trade), as a guy you shouldn’t rush. Meanwhile, Cust got back to “being Cust” and was a very good hitter after the ASB in 2009.

Plus, if Carter comes up midseason it won’t be at DH, as the A’s correctly don’t want to give up on him being a defensive player at the age of 23. It will probably be in LF replacing “ZOMG he’s so good how can we let him go?” Scott Fricking Hairston.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 25, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah it's sad.

The lineup kind of sucks. :)

I just don’t think it’s possible Cust is within the realm of possibility of being a long term part at this point— He’s not good enough to justify paying millions to DH or to make up for his OF defense.

Also, the only way to learn how to hit good breaking pitches is to face good breaking pitches. Guys crushed everything through AA, maybe its time to face some good breaking pitches…

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Why does Cust have to be a "long term part"?

No one’s suggesting the team sign him to a fricking 5-year contract. He’s probably going to be better than Carter next year, he’s not that expensive, and he doesn’t waste Carter’s service time (which is super uber incredibly important, because Carter is a power hitter and power hitters are a. rare and b. constantly overpaid in arbitration).

There’s basically no excuse for the A’s calling up Carter until they are certain— not confident, but certain— that he is going to be the best hitter on the team. He has zero defensive value— sorry, folks, it’s true; the A’s may not want to give up on him being a defensive player, but they certainly OUGHT to— and his bat is only going to be a significant asset for the first 3 years and change that he’s in the majors.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 25, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes. He IS good enough.

Even last year, when he apparently sucked, he was a 1.0 WAR player. That’s worth 4.5 million dollars.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 25, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

The A's don't pay $4.5M per win

And never will pay the league average per WAR as long as they are playing in the Coliseum.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 25, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions  

explain that.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 25, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Does ANY team pay $4.5M per win?

The A’s payroll was $62.3M this year and the team had 75 wins. That’s less than $1M per win. I don’t know where the $4.5M figure comes from but it certainly isn’t actual payroll.

Even the Yankees, with their $201.5M payroll and 103 wins are paying just under $2M per win.

I know you wouldn’t just make up a number, so I assume there’s some logical formula that comes up with $4.5M as the price of one point of WAR, but whatever that formula is, it doesn’t translate into what teams actually pay on their payroll.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 1:48 AM PST up reply actions  

OK, I went to FanGraphs and looked it up.

The price is higher than actual payroll because he’s only counting free agents.

90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers‘ $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site.

OK, that makes sense. They’re figuring a price of the marginal win bought in the form of a free agent, not the cheap wins teams get off of underpaid non-free agents.

But now Mr Ricky G’s statement is perfectly clear. The $4.5M figure is derived from average salary paid to free agents, and the Oakland A’s clearly pay less than average to free agents. Thus, the A’s don’t pay $4.5M per win.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 1:56 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm not so sure

Factor in the free agents we currently have (including Chavez’s contract) over the last three years and the amount of wins that group has given us and I’d be surprised if it went under the $4.5M per win. Yeah, we haven’t spent that much on free agent players, but we also haven’t gotten much in return on those players.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 26, 2009 6:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Hmm, good point.

So maybe Ricky is wrong.

Shouldn’t be too hard to calculate. It would be a lot easier if Cots didn’t remove guys from the list as soon as they’re gone from the team. I wish I’d saved a copy of the page in June. Now Giambi, Nomar, and O-Cab are all gone, so I’d have to dig them up elsewhere.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

That's not really the point, though.

When you’re calculating a player’s worth in dollars, you can’t just arbitrarily say “Oh the A’s only pay $2M per win” because they have a bunch of pre-arb guys and then try to lowball Cust as a 1 WAR player. Service time rules keep players from being paid what they’re worth for (at least) the first 3 years of their careers in MLB.

Well, I mean I guess you could lowball guys, but you sure wouldn’t sign very many players that way.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 26, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions  

It does rather powerfully suggest that

if your only goal is to minimize how much you pay per WAR you should avoid signing free agents at all. But I guess we already knew that.

I still think it’s an interesting exercise to try to figure exactly what the team paid per WAR to free agents. If nothing else, it makes me realize there are ways in which we’re not exactly clear what we mean.

There’s a lot of ways you could do this, and none is obviously the only right way. My intent here was to count only free agents where Oakland did the signing. Then also, to make things a little easier on myself, I’m counting the full year to whoever signed the guy. So Oakland is on the hook for a full year of Giambi, Springer, etc, even though someone else took over the contract mid-season. And on the flip side, Oakland doesn’t count Wuertz because even though he’s a free agent, we traded for him.

I realize there are problems with that, but it seems in spirit with the FanGraphs calculation, since the point of it is to consider what the going rate is for WAR.

Besides that, I may have screwed up. It’s not always clear to me who counts as a free agent. I think Ziggy and Casilla count, but I’m not really sure. Besides those, I hope I didn’t miss any FAs or accidentally add any who aren’t, but go ahead and correct me if I’m wrong.

So this is what I get. The first first five salaries come from Cots. The other four come from another page I found; I hope it’s right. All WAR numbers are from FanGraphs.

Salaries (in $ million)

chavez …. 11
ellis ….. 5
cust …… 2.8
casilla … 0.42
ziegler … 0.4

springer .. 3.3
o-cab ….. 4
nomar ….. 1
giambi …. 4

total = 31.92

WAR

chavez …. -0.4
ellis ….. 1.2
cust …… 1.0
casilla … -0.1
ziegler … 1.3
springer .. 0.4
o-cab ….. 0.6
nomar ….. -0.3
giambi …. -0.2

total = 3.5

By this calculation the A’s are paying $9.12 per WAR to free agents. That sucks.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Wuertz isn't a free agent he was arbitration eligible

nor was ziegler, casilla, or cust as they too were arby eligible

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Nov 26, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions  

2nd draft

Wasn’t Casilla signed as a free agent out of the Dominican? Or do those guys still go through the arbitration stuff, too? And I thought Ziegler had been completely released by whoever had him before and we signed him as a minor-league free agent.

But anyway, I’ll remove all three. That leaves $28.3 million for 1.3 points of WAR, which is $21.77 per WAR point. Even worse!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Probably shouldn't include anyone with less than 6 years service time

Since that’s when FA starts. Arbitration salaries are mostly (if not always) a smaller percentage of what they would make in FA so players like Wuertz & Cust wouldn’t necessarily fit into the calculation.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 26, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Aren't players from the Caribbean countries

free agents right from the get-go? I guess I don’t understand how that works. I thought they were allowed to sign with anyone they want for whatever they can get.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions  

They are, in a sense, free agents

but for the most part they do not have the leverage to force teams to give them special rights. Instead, they sign the same contract draftees do, and then get shunted into the minors, working year-to-year under the reserve clause system (just like draftees) until after their third year of big league service time.

For the purposes of something like this they are the equivalent of draftees.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

so about 23.5M per WAR

Go A’s!

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 26, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually the A's only won 27 games last year.

you have to look at wins above replacement since a replacement level team would win ~48 games.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Nov 26, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, here's the deal

The average MLB team would win about 48 games, as DFA notes, if they were entirely composed of replacement players. The average team gets about 12 WAR for free through the draft/reserve process. (Most of those come from players subject to the reserve clause, while some of them come from discounts on salaries paid to pre-free-agency players in salary arbitration.)

The A’s thus got about 15 additional WAR (actually more like 21 because they underplayed their Pythag record) over and above the wins they’d be expected to get. That’s a significant improvement on $4.5M per win, but not nearly enough of one to make the team a contender. The Yankees got 35 additional WAR (again adjusting for Pythag) and spent vastly more than $4.5M per win on it, but didn’t waste nearly enough money to make them NOT a contender.

Now, you can also measure teams’ individual free agent contracts to see how well the team did on those. By any stretch, last year was a complete disaster for the A’s on free agent deals (they made up ground by getting a lot more WAR than a typical team does through pre-FA players). They spent about $30M and ended up gaining about 1 win from it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

And in any event I'm talking about Expected WAR, not actual

And by “expected” I mean the internal offices projections. (sort of like a handicapper betting into posted lines— A highly skilled sportbetter might think the line should be a full point in one direction or the other and bet accordingly. Thats essentially what is going on in Billy Beane’s mind/office— He’s figuring out the market value of a player, the market’s implied Expected WAR, calculating his own WAR and making purchases. Maybe he’s not using WAR specifically to do so, but some metric/eyeballing of his own that could be converted).

The figure $4.5M is the league average— Teams like the Yankees are bloating that and teams like the Twins and A’s are depressing that figure.

The A’s might have ended up spending $30M for 1 win this season, but clearly they had projected something more like 10-12 wins on that investment. Not every bet wins.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Nov 26, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

But isn't the lesson from this discussion that

Billy Beane isn’t getting WAR free agents cheaper? The team gets more WAR for less money by virtue of not signing very many free agents, but the free agents we do sign are pretty consistently turning out to be more expensive than league average in terms of WAR per dollar.

I see you’re counting the WAR Beane hoped to get rather than the WAR he actually got, but I’m not sure I see any good reason for that. If the assertion is that I never pay above market rate for something, and then it turns out I do, it hardly proves the originally assertion for me to say, “Well, yeah, but I thought the deal would turn out better than it did.”

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Nov 26, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, some things you can't really plan for

Chavez’s contract looked great until (in July 2007) it suddenly didn’t…

That being said, the evidence from recent years is that the A’s haven’t gotten much at all out of free agency. 2006 was the last time the team really “hit” on a contract. I suspect it’s just a run of bad luck, but the point is that the team is not getting discounts on free agents. When the A’s win it’s because they have good pre-FA players.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 26, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Oakland Athletics.

Community Guidelines ANcillary Terms

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Aperture_logo_small
Community Prospect List #4
Img_2672_small
Long-Term Outlook

Recent FanPosts

Small
A's reportedly sign Cespedes
Unknown_small
Is It Really Worth It: Three Veterans Who May Be Playing Oakland Next Year, But Shouldn't Be
Small
Manny's Contract
Small
fantasy baseball league for A's fans!
Small
NYY Proposal
Small
Roy Oswalt = opportunity
Choice_small
Tom Milone, by the numbers: Maddux, Glavine, Halladay, Radke...
Img_1877_small
Behind Enemy Lines
Lt-922060_small
All-Time Oakland A's team

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Front Page Writers

Maya_papi_small Tyler Bleszinski

08-_the_author_small 67MARQUEZ

Josefav2_small danmerqury

Baseball_small baseballgirl

Poochini-butt_in_box_2_small Nico

Img_0653_small dwishinsky

Front Page Writers

Smiley_face_small gigglingone

Venasfans_small OaklandSi

60-minutes-clock_small cuppingmaster

Patpicturebucky2_small YonYonson

Img_3830_small David Fung

Moderators

Photofunia-5c770b_small coffee roaster

Denver_small Colorado Fan

Ls_logo100_small LoneStranger

Thumbs_up_small LongTimeFan

Marty_profile_in_green_small mrod

Img_1877_small Billy Frijoles

Babycomputergeek_small paris7

Img_0115_small Tutu-late