Community Prospect List #17
by Zonis on Nov 18, 2009 10:21 PM PST
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PrintFor Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.
Prospects up for Vote:
Matt Spencer, OF, Age 23
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS 2007 Arizona State Pac10 21 - NCAA 55 185 45 70 16 2 8 48 8 2 19 37 5 1 1 2 .378 .448 .616 1064 Williamsport NYPL 21 PHI A- of 51 179 21 47 10 0 9 26 3 3 11 46 5 0 1 2 0 .263 .320 .469 789 2008 Clearwater FSL 22 PHI A+ of 85 307 40 77 12 3 6 42 5 1 30 66 2 0 0 4 8 .251 .318 .368 686 Stockton Calif 22 OAK A+ 1b-of 41 169 30 56 12 1 8 27 7 1 6 39 6 0 0 1 1 .331 .374 .556 930 2009 Stockton Calif 23 OAK A+ 30 117 20 32 5 0 10 29 3 1 12 15 0 1 0 1 2 .274 .338 .573 911 Midland Tex 23 OAK AA 93 371 59 109 29 3 9 62 2 3 26 75 7 1 0 5 3 .294 .347 .461 808 Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 300 1143 170 321 68 7 42 186 20 9 85 241 20 2 1 13 14 .281 .338 .463 801
Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2006 Azl Athletics Ariz 20 OAK Rk 2 6 6.07 13 8 0 0 1 0 43.0 59 39 29 4 11 27 2 12.3 0.8 2.3 5.7 1.63 2007 Vancouver Nwst 21 OAK A- 2 2 4.30 17 7 0 0 3 1 44.0 41 26 21 2 31 35 4 8.4 0.4 6.3 7.2 1.64 2008 Vancouver Nwst 22 OAK A- 2 5 3.93 15 15 0 0 0 0 68.2 62 37 30 3 32 77 3 8.1 0.4 4.2 10.1 1.37 2009 Kane County Midw 23 OAK A 10 2 3.23 16 16 0 0 0 0 86.1 89 37 31 6 31 78 6 9.3 0.6 3.2 8.1 1.39 Stockton Calif 23 OAK A+ 3 4 3.56 11 11 0 0 0 0 65.2 62 27 26 3 35 67 4 8.5 0.4 4.8 9.2 1.48 Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s) 19 19 4.01 72 57 0 0 4 1 307.2 313 166 137 18 140 284 19 9.2 0.5 4.1 8.3 1.47
James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - Video
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2005 UC Riverside BigWest 18 - NCAA 3 1 2.95 6 6 1 0 0 36.2 37 17 12 2 4 24 2 9.1 0.5 1.0 5.9 1.12 2006 UC Riverside BigWest 19 - NCAA 9 5 2.96 16 16 0 0 0 109.1 108 47 36 11 19 94 3 8.9 0.9 1.6 7.7 1.16 2007 UC Riverside BigWest 20 - NCAA 11 3 2.40 17 17 5 1 0 123.2 103 48 33 9 15 116 3 7.5 0.7 1.1 8.4 0.95 Midland Tex 20 OAK AA 0 0 3.94 13 2 0 0 2 0 29.2 36 16 13 2 8 23 0 10.9 0.6 2.4 7.0 1.48 2008 Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 9 6 3.51 25 25 0 0 0 0 136.0 150 58 53 11 32 120 3 9.9 0.7 2.1 7.9 1.34 2009 Sacramento PCL 22 OAK AAA 7 7 5.72 23 22 1 0 0 0 119.2 139 81 76 8 47 81 7 10.5 0.6 3.5 6.1 1.55 Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 16 13 4.48 61 49 1 0 2 0 285.1 325 155 142 21 87 224 10 10.3 0.7 2.7 7.1 1.45
Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2006 Kansas State Big12 18 - NCAA 3 1 1.24 18 1 0 0 1 29.0 22 8 4 3 16 35 2 6.8 0.9 5.0 10.9 1.31 2007 Kansas State Big12 19 - NCAA 2 2 7.22 16 10 0 0 1 52.1 66 44 42 4 28 46 10 11.4 0.7 4.8 7.9 1.80 2008 Kansas State Big12 20 - NCAA 1 1 3.22 13 2 0 0 0 22.1 25 12 8 3 9 17 7 10.1 1.2 3.6 6.9 1.52 Vancouver Nwst 20 OAK A- 2 2 4.88 18 0 0 0 5 1 31.1 30 18 17 2 18 40 3 8.6 0.6 5.2 11.5 1.53 Kane County Midw 20 OAK A 1 0 2.25 3 0 0 0 2 0 4.0 3 1 1 0 1 5 1 6.8 0.0 2.3 11.3 1.00 2009 Kane County Midw 21 OAK A 4 0 1.24 7 4 0 0 1 0 36.1 19 6 5 2 10 47 4 4.7 0.5 2.5 11.6 0.80 Stockton Calif 21 OAK A+ 5 4 3.52 21 11 0 0 3 1 76.2 64 36 30 3 32 111 9 7.5 0.4 3.8 13.0 1.25 Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 0 1 16.20 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.1 5 7 6 0 4 1 2 13.5 0.0 10.8 2.7 2.70 Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 12 7 3.51 50 16 0 0 11 2 151.2 121 68 59 7 65 204 19 7.2 0.4 3.9 12.1 1.23
Shane Peterson, OF, Age 21
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS 2006 Long Beach State BigWest 18 - NCAA 39 125 12 41 3 2 2 19 2 1 11 19 8 3 2 2 .328 .411 .432 843 2007 Long Beach State BigWest 19 - NCAA 53 199 40 65 11 3 4 40 11 3 27 27 7 2 4 1 .327 .418 .472 890 2008 Long Beach State BigWest 20 - NCAA 59 213 52 83 16 2 7 50 10 3 44 47 7 3 1 1 .390 .506 .582 1088 Batavia NYPL 20 STL A- of-1b 65 230 35 67 20 2 1 39 3 2 39 65 4 3 0 2 1 .291 .400 .409 809 2009 Palm Beach FSL 21 STL A+ 76 285 32 85 11 4 6 39 10 1 21 52 11 4 0 2 5 .298 .367 .428 795 Springfield Tex 21 STL AA 18 74 10 21 4 1 1 7 2 0 5 10 1 0 0 0 0 .284 .338 .405 743 Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 57 228 26 63 14 1 4 24 6 0 18 42 3 0 1 2 5 .276 .335 .399 734 Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 216 817 103 236 49 8 12 109 21 3 83 169 19 7 1 6 11 .289 .365 .412 777
Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2005 Texas Christian ConfUSA 19 - NCAA 5 5 4.64 20 12 1 0 1 95.0 97 62 49 5 44 100 5 9.2 0.5 4.2 9.5 1.48 2006 Texas Christian MWC 20 - NCAA 6 6 4.08 23 13 0 0 6 92.2 93 52 42 8 37 100 8 9.0 0.8 3.6 9.7 1.40 2007 Texas Christian MWC 21 - NCAA 7 1 2.17 32 0 0 0 13 49.2 36 17 12 1 17 71 7 6.5 0.2 3.1 12.9 1.07 Kane County Midw 21 OAK A 0 1 0.96 9 0 0 0 8 4 9.1 3 2 1 0 4 10 2 2.9 0.0 3.9 9.6 0.75 Stockton Calif 21 OAK A+ 0 0 7.07 11 0 0 0 2 0 14.0 16 16 11 2 15 13 4 10.3 1.3 9.6 8.4 2.21 2008 Stockton Calif 22 OAK A+ 5 2 3.36 54 0 0 0 35 18 67.0 61 31 25 5 32 90 10 8.2 0.7 4.3 12.1 1.39 2009 Midland Tex 23 OAK AA 0 2 0.61 27 0 0 0 23 11 29.1 23 5 2 1 9 26 1 7.1 0.3 2.8 8.0 1.09 Sacramento PCL 23 OAK AAA 2 3 3.62 28 0 0 0 10 3 32.1 27 14 13 1 21 33 5 7.5 0.3 5.8 9.2 1.48 Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 7 8 3.08 129 0 0 0 78 36 152.0 130 68 52 9 81 172 22 7.7 0.5 4.8 10.2 1.39
Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP 2003 San Jose State WAC 20 - NCAA 1 0 3.21 10 0 0 0 0 14.0 14 5 5 1 5 10 2 9.0 0.6 3.2 6.4 1.36 2004 San Jose State WAC 21 - NCAA 4 1 1.71 25 0 0 0 6 58.0 42 13 11 1 29 46 5 6.5 0.2 4.5 7.1 1.22 2005 San Jose State WAC 22 - NCAA 7 2 1.85 16 8 2 1 1 77.2 60 22 16 5 31 54 1 7.0 0.6 3.6 6.3 1.17 Vancouver Nwst 22 OAK A- 2 0 1.95 23 0 0 0 14 27.2 20 7 6 2 11 38 1 6.5 0.7 3.6 12.4 1.12 2006 Kane County Midw 23 OAK A 5 1 1.63 49 0 0 0 26 9 60.2 38 13 11 0 23 73 2 5.6 0.0 3.4 10.8 1.01 2007 Stockton Calif 24 OAK A+ 0 0 3.24 7 0 0 0 5 3 8.1 6 5 3 0 6 16 2 6.5 0.0 6.5 17.3 1.44 Midland Tex 24 OAK AA 3 3 2.88 48 0 0 0 12 0 65.2 63 24 21 6 22 69 1 8.6 0.8 3.0 9.5 1.29 2008 Sacramento PCL 25 OAK AAA 7 2 3.47 51 0 0 0 14 2 70.0 51 33 27 9 26 66 3 6.6 1.2 3.3 8.5 1.10 2009 Sacramento PCL 26 OAK AAA 4 2 2.13 45 0 0 0 6 2 63.1 40 15 15 5 24 77 5 5.7 0.7 3.4 10.9 1.01 Oakland AL 26 OAK MLB 1 0 0.53 11 1 0 0 1 0 17.0 10 2 1 1 4 20 0 5.3 0.5 2.1 10.6 0.82 Major League Totals - 1 Season(s) 1 0 0.53 11 1 0 0 1 0 17.0 10 2 1 1 4 20 0 5.3 0.5 2.1 10.6 0.82 Minor League Totals - 5 Season(s) 21 8 2.53 223 0 0 0 30 295.2 218 97 83 22 112 339 14 6.6 0.7 3.4 10.3 1.12
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I'll nominate Rashun Dixon
I might get killed for this because Dixon had such a dismal year in the Northwest league but I think his athleticism and power potential are interesting once you get into the 20’s. I think he was over rated after a lucky run in the AZL and now I think he’s a little underrated after struggling in a tough hitters league in the northwest. I’m not sure if he’s the next guy I’d vote for after the ones on this list but he is definitely in the conversation for me.
Other guys I would consider are; Ryan Ortiz, Michael Spina, Justin Marks, Nino Leyja, or Jason Christian.
Second
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 19, 2009 5:32 AM PST up reply actions
Mickey Storey please
I promise this is the last time I’ll ask…I still don’t get why he’s almost completely ignored. I guess him being in the bullpen might knock his status down a little, but he’s got at least as much upside as Kilby or Demel, and he’s still just 23.
+1
agreed. Could be a big year, next year for Storey.
by Colorado Fan on Nov 19, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
Went with Hornbeck
I’m not completely sold on Hornbeck’s ability to keep fooling advanced hitters with his change up, but at this point on the list I’m going with the lefty starter with a ton of strike outs who held his own in the launching pad that is the Cal league.
+1
Hes also still one of the youngest with the biggest possible upside out of these players left on the board IMO. I would choose HR, but as we have seen in recent years, relievers arent as valuable to the A’s cause they seem to grow on trees.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 19, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
Hear hear
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 19, 2009 9:28 PM PST up reply actions
Whoa, is it just me, or did those super-shiny tables break the formatting in this thread?
Everything’s bold.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
Ain't just you
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
My post wasn't bold after I posted it
but it’s bold now on a second visit to the thread. Odd.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
Oooh, and the sidebar stuff is bold too.
Fanpost menu, the little welcome box, Yahoo News, etc.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
Kilby
After that, I’m going back to the SP prospects. Hornbeck, Figueroa, Simmons, and Marks come next I think.
Next position players for me are Ryan Ortiz and Wilfredo Solano. Then I guess Spencer, Dixon, Leyja, Christian. Might put Galarraga in there if someone can tell me what his injury status is.
Side note: I’m finding it actually much easier to rank position players and pitchers in separate lists and then just sort of take ad hoc guesses about which list to pick from at a given spot.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That's not quite true
He has 42 ABs in the affiliated minors. He played 2 seasons in the Mexican League (where he generally did well).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Here's a bit of an update
From a Scout.com interview with Keith Lieppman back in September:
OC: Joel Galarraga went out early in the season with a shoulder injury. I wasn’t sure what his contract situation was. Is he still property of the team next year despite the shoulder injury?
KL: Yeah, in fact, he just left a few weeks ago to go back to Mexico. He’ll return October 1st and go through a three-week rehab period in Arizona where we can really improve what can be done with the shoulder in the US, as opposed to if he rehabbed it solely in Mexico. Let our doctors and rehab guys work with him then.
OC: So he still fits into that catching picture?
KL: Yeah, absolutely.
Agree wholeheartedly on the pitching prospects.
I have no clue about the hitters.
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 19, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
True to my word, I went with Kilby here.
As much as I don’t like voting for a reliever, his value by my own process seems to be more than any of these lower level players with more potential. (Simmons is in the position of being at a higher level, with a slightly higher ceiling, but becoming increasingly unlikely to be a major league contributor)
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Yeah, this is my second time voting for Kilby.
It’s already been said, but he’s virtually assured of a small positive contribution. These other guys, at this point, may have upside, but their chances aren’t looking good.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
I've liked Kilby for 2 years now
Dixon was the best athlete in the A’s 2008 draft, was one of the best athletes in the entire 2008 draft, was ranked 21st on the prospect chart by BA heading into 2009, 22nd by Sickels, stayed healthy but had a horrible 2009 season, then earned praise in Instructs as the best position player in camp and the most consistent hitter. Keeping in mind that Dixon was in Instructs with Stassi and Green, two players that have already made the Community list. Plus, no fewer than 7 players that were rated higher than Dixon by either BA or Sickels heading into the 2009 season lost their prospect status.
He’s got huge upside and we’re ignoring him.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Might as well try this out again:
Dixon:
5%: 6 WAR
5%: 5 WAR
5%: 4 WAR
5%: 3 WAR
5%: 2 WAR
75%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 6
That might be too optimistic on his chance of reaching potential.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 19, 2009 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
I think the odds of him ever playing in the majors are way under 25%...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Bill James' pyramid...
you need to stop making the odds of 6 WAR as high as the odds of 2 WAR…and frankly, I question the value of just making numbers up.
The point is to have a method of weighing my own projections.
So that whereas I might say, “I think Kilby will be a pretty good reliever and there’s a good chance, but Dixon could be great, and there’s a small chance!” and having no way of comparing which one is worth more in my own head, I can weigh the two against each other.
Of course I’m making up the numbers, that’s what everybody here is doing, other people are just not using numbers at all, they’re just making up how they feel about each prospect without any method of weighing potential versus likelihood or reaching it.
If you’d like to change my numbers, go ahead. I don’t care, I just made them up to help show about how I feel about each prospect.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 20, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
Kilby
I’ve been voting for him for a while now.
Another way to look at Kilby’s value — especially for those conscious of the fungibility of relief pitchers — is to imagine what he’d gain in return if he were actually funged.
Suppose some other team that needs relievers comes knocking and the one they pick from Billy’s wide selection is Kilby. Suppose in return Billy gets a prospect from that team’s farm. What quality of prospect would you expect to get in a plausible trade? Something better or worse than where we currently stand in our rankings?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
About the bold
It is a result of the main FanPost.
I can tell because the last thing before the poll is “&nbs”, which is clearly the beginning of an “ ” code in which the “p;” got chopped off, along with Rodriguez’s stats and who knows what else that followed.
Clearly Zonis was on the HTML code page and a chunk of text at the end was inadvertently deleted. Presumably that chunk of text included the codes to close off the bold command.
If the missing text can’t be found, I would suggest at least adding “p;</b>” to the end and see if that solves the bold problem.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
AN is broken
it keeps cutting off the bottom half of my post, thus messing things up.
AN X.0 sucks.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
Maybe there's a maximum post length?
Well, I’m sure there’s a maximum somewhere, but I’d never heard of anyone reaching it before. Maybe the fancier tables use up more room for the coding.
I alerted tech to the problem and they’re aware of it.
The bold is gone now. I assume that’s because you edited the post to remove Henry Rodriguez. I saved the source code of the page when it was still bold, just in case they need to see it for diagnosis, but my impression was they already understood what’s going on.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
No way is this even close to any hypothetical maximum post length
I know. Because I’ve never hit it.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I was speculating that perhaps
the maximum is measured after it’s converted to HTML code and possibly those nifty looking charts are packed with a ton of code.
All just guessing, of course. I forwarded the munged page to a tech who asked for it. He said they try to insulate the rest of the page from whatever is entered for the FanPost but it’s sometimes tricky to catch everything, so they seemed interested in seeing what happened here. He didn’t mention anything about why it was getting chopped off in the first place, though.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Clay Mortensen please
I would trade any of these guys on the list and some in the 11-16 range for Simmons or Mortensen without a second thought.
Srsly?
Apparently you have much more of an affinity for bad 5th starters than most…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
BUT WE TRADED HOLLIDAY FOR HIM!
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 19, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Henry again.
I’ve got him in the Top 10
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Who would you compare him to?
Is there a good major leaguer who’s taken a similar career path?
Nobody's really a good comp, but here's a few guys who had plus plus fastballs, and
and bad control at Age 22:
Randy Johnson, FSL — 119.2 IP, 133K, 94BB
Sandy Koufax, NL — 158.2 IP, 131K, 105BB
Jose Rijo, AL, 82.1 IP - 67K, 41BB 55.1 IP, 37K, 28BB
Rob Dibble, EL -
Rudy Seanez, EL — 38.1 IP, 73K, 30BB
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 19, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
Obviously Randy Johnson's a freak
but 94BB in 119 IP??!! That makes Flameballer McGhee look like Greg Maddux. Well, or at least like a rich man’s Oliver Perez.
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 19, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah,
if they were to convert Henriguez back to starter, he would be worth thought.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 19, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
I can't imagine he could be any worse as a reliever
I’d endorse the move
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 21, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
The whole reason he was moved to the pen
was how awful he was as a starter in 2008… he was getting shelled like a peanut every time he took the mound.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'd argue that they gave up on him as a starter too early.
He had a 2.97 FIP in High A ball, and his BB/9 was 4.80 which is really really bad, but with a 12.48 K/9 doesn’t negate his potential. He still struck out more than a batter per inning in AA, his BBs just went through the roof, as often happens when players move up a level.
If I were the A’s management, considering his minimal value as a reliever and the A’s plethora of other (better) options, I’d put him in AA as a starter again for the 2010 season. If he fails, fine, make him a reliever again, but that’s the only way the A’s could ever get any real value out of the guy as far as I can tell.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 21, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, I'm not arguing
It’s completely insane at this point for the A’s to put anyone who’s even vaguely plausible as a rotation candidate (well, except maybe Eveland since he’s out of options) in the bullpen. I was practically foaming at the mouth hearing that DLS had seemingly been relegated there a few days ago.
In Rodriguez’s case, though, I’m not sure it IS even vaguely plausible that he could be a rotation starter. He’s struggled to put up decent numbers ever since he came to the U.S.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I dunno if that's the plan with FDLS though
I think that’s more a “make him the long man, give him some multiple inning outings, see if he can get major leaguers out, and when (not if) there’s an open rotation spot, even for a couple weeks, give him a shot.”
Kinda like how Chad Gaudin was used, I’d imagine. Personally, I’d put him in the Sacramento rotation, but I don’t think it’s a terrible strategy.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 21, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Beane meant that he was going to the Majors...
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 22, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
Right
But he’s been so bad as a reliever, I literally cannot imagine it being much worse. And even if he does figure it out, his upside is limited simply by being a reliever.
So given those two variables, I just don’t see what there is to lose by trying him out as a starter again.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 21, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
How about Brian Wilson as a comp?
Not in terms of career path, but as a possible ceiling. They both throw very hard, but straight. Brian Wilson has never had the control problems of Rodriguez, but if Henry improved his control (and likely shed a couple MPHs) he could be a poor man’s Brian Wilson.
Saying "if Henry improved his control"
is kind of like saying “If Jack Cust made lots of contact.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, and we saw what happened when Cust decided to try making more contact
viz, he sucked.
Rodriguez already sucks as a pitcher right now, but I suppose it could always get worse.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
What's odd, to me, is that when I finally saw him pitch
his delivery looked fairly simple and compact and it’s not like he was “everywhere” with most of his pitches (occasionally, but not constantly). So I’m not really sure why he has such extreme difficulty throwing strikes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hrod
He was a top 10 last year. This is his make or break season. Just needs some control issue problem fixed.
Yep
100MPH guys don’t grow on trees. Kilby’s grow on trees.
by Colorado Fan on Nov 19, 2009 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Lefty relievers who strike out 10 per 9 innings?
Don’t be ridiculous.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Kilby for HRod...
Straight up trade (I know. It would never happen). You’d do it? You’d be the only GM making that trade.
by Colorado Fan on Nov 19, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
I'd make that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+ 8.67 billion
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
I dont think I would
Because I think I could get someone better since there are GM’s that value velocity so highly.
Also, you tend to get better value trading a Pitcher for a Position Player than a Pitcher for Pitcher deal.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
Ownership wouldn't let you.
Kilby is 27 years old next season.
+ HRods Ceiling = Kilby’s Ceilingby Colorado Fan on Nov 20, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
You're right, but not in the way you think
Kilby has control, hence can put up much better controllable pitching numbers. Rodriguez has utterly no control, hence will always basically be average at best except for streaks when he gets very lucky.
Kilby’s ceiling is much much much higher than Rodriguez’s.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He wouldn't be the first 22-year old to improve his control
Rodriguez has utterly no control, hence will always basically be average at best except for streaks when he gets very lucky.
Or if he, you know, improves a lot and reaches his ceiling.
I’m not all that high on Rodriguez, but he certainly has great stuff. Rodriguez is much more likely to improve his control than Kilby is to improve his stuff, so I can see the argument that Kilby has more upside. I don’t think anyone disputes that Kilby is much better now.
I think Rodriguez’s walk rate will improve in the majors, even if he doesn’t actually improve his control. Minor leaguers have a lot of trouble making contact against him, leading to a lot of prolonged counts. Major league hitters will likely make better contact off of him, meaning fewer at bats will last long enough to result in a walk.
Players who swing and miss are likely to walk more than those who don’t, and the fewer bats a pitcher misses the less likely he is to walk someone.
That is a good point, I have to admit
On the other hand, major league hitters have better plate discipline. Typically, walk rates increase from the minors to the majors.
Also, while this is sort of sketchy, the players who have made contact off of Rodriguez have shredded him (career BABIP of .342 in 1400+ plate appearances). Not clear to me that more contact is helpful.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Yeah, the high BABIP is weird
I would guess it’s due to a couple things:
1) BABIP tends to be a bit higher with runners on base, and Henry puts a lot of guys on.
2) His HR/OFFB rate has generally been pretty low, which might mean he’s been giving up rockets off the wall when he gets hit hard. Though he hasn’t given up too many doubles…
I would say he probably gets hit hard because he grooves it when he gets behind in the count—and he’s often behind in the count—but his stats don’t indicate that he’s big on giving in and grooving it.
He also throws pretty much only fastballs, which have a higher babip
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Is that adjusted for count?
Or is it because pitchers are more likely to throw FBs when they’re behind in the count and more likely to throw changeups and breaking balls when they’re ahead in the count?
Yeah, my theory
is that part of it is due to the fact that his extremely high velocity produces extremely high velocities of batted balls coming off the hitter’s bat, and high batted ball speed makes it very difficult for the defense to react when it isn’t hit right at them.
This might be confirmed if he appears to have an unusually high number of double plays relative to his ground ball rate, since hard-hit grounders are more likely to produce double plays when the fielders get to them.
He might do well to junk his four-seam fastball completely and replace it with a 2-seamer or a cutter which will have lower velocity but might generate weaker contact.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Also, could it be
That due to the increased velocity, contact made that’s not ‘square contact’ (ie, the centerline of the bat hits the ball at a normal) is more likely to result in a foul ball; in other words, the balls in play are more likely to be driven, resulting in higher ball speed, etc.
You’d also think that, due to the decreased time that batters have to react, that they will be meeting the ball slightly deeper into their stance, resulting in fewer high fly balls.
Of course, I could just be talking balls, here.
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does
Went with Simmons
It came down to him or Kilby for me and I just decided to go with the SP since I couldn’t make up my mind.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Hrod
I agree, HROD is the only real “prospect” on that list. Simmons is nice, but he is what he is. The scouts like pedro, mainly because he is left handed with velocity. Kilby is not a prospect. A servicable lefty out of the pen? Yes. Prospect? No.
Anyone who does not have 130 ABs or 50 IP is a prospect
If your definition is different, your definition is wrong.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I don't get how you distinguish Rodriguez
You could say that “he is what he is” as well. He is a hard throwing righty reliever who can get a lot of strikeouts but walks too many people and leaves too many fastballs over the plate to be reliable or effective. He has a much more established history than Simmons and is only 5 months younger. What makes you think that Rodriguez still has more “prospect” mystique than Simmons even though he’s established over a longer career that he is unable to improve on his flaws.
I see a lot of people citing Rodriguez’s “upside” or “potential” but those are nebulous terms without context. In terms of true baseball performance how good do you really think Rodriguez can be? Maybe in the best of all possible worlds he dramatically improves his walk rate and becomes Billy Koch, or with just serious improvement he could become Carlos Marmol. How is that great upside? I could think of a number of players yet to be voted on who could “potentially” be better than that.
It’s fun to think about a 100 mph fastball, but in terms of actual baseball performance I would argue that Rodriguez actually has very low “upside”. Even if you allow that he could still improve dramatically he still just wouldn’t be that good at baseball.
Anyone who does not have 130 ABs or 50 IP is a prospect?
Is there a difference between a prospect or Rookie? Are they one in the same? Was Matt Carson a “prospect” and a “rookie”. So a 36 year old rookie who has had less then 130 ABs or 50 IP is a prospect? If the community agrees to that, or if someone can get me written proof as opposed to random statement, then I tip my hat to Paul.
The definition of prospect as used on lists like this one
is, by almost unanimous consensus, the same criteria as are used for Rookie of the Year (except for the fact that there’s a rarely-triggered second way a guy can lose RoY eligibility relating to service time). It’s the method that Baseball America uses to determine eligibility.
It’s way more useful to just have a clear brightline than to get involved in nebulous discussions about what counts as a “prospect.” It allows one to argue talent rather than semantics.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This was stated clearly in the first 10 posts
of this series. Eg, here
The qualifications to be voted onto the list are simple. The player in question must be eligible to win a Rookie of the Year Award for the 2010 season-that is, he must be a rookie to start the 2010 season. Well, not quite. To make it simpler and not have to count days on the active roster, we will be going with 130 AB or 50 Innings Pitched.
This was never intended to be a metaphysical definition of what a prospect truly is, simply a convenient standard to let us know which players count for consideration and which don’t. It’s Zonis’s poll, so he gets to pick the standard. This one makes as much sense as any.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Well his ceiling in a dream world is Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan
Marmol is a pretty good pitcher. Koch had a much straighter fastball. Even Daniel Cabrera had a couple of useful seasons.
Can you think of anyone with a 100 mph fastball and was never useful in the majors, other than Steve Dalkowski?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 19, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan are starting pitchers
Since Rodriguez is not anymore, having been converted because of his manifest inability to get through even a 5th starter’s inning workload without throwing 100+ pitches a game, becoming them would be quite a logical feat.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I don't think dream world projections are useful in this type of exercise
For one, Rodriguez isn’t a starter so it would be stretching the bounds of credibility to put his ceiling at Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan. If we were looking at ceiling like that why wouldn’t you apply that to all the people on the list. Is Ben Hornbeck’s ceiling Tom Glavine? If we look at dream world ceilings then every prospect has a hall of fame ceiling.
I agree that he could be useful like Marmol or Koch but when people talk about his huge upside I don’t think of “useful reliever” as that much of an upside. I have to admit that I don’t know much history of reliever’s with 100 MPH fastballs but I can’t think of any pitchers who walk 6.79 batters per 9 innings who were useful either.
My general impression of Rodriguez is a player who’s likely ceiling is useful middle reliever that is coupled with a very high likelihood of flaming out and I haven’t heard any arguments that would make me change that impression.
by OkayJay81 on Nov 19, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd for sanity
I don’t think Rodriguez has a high ceiling at all. In fact, I think his realistic ceiling is probably the lowest of any of the players currently on the poll.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I think if he can be converted to a starter again
His ceiling is significantly higher than many of the other guys on this list.
That being said, his chances of hitting it would be so laughable even I, who probably takes a liking to the upside types more than others, wouldn’t bother ranking him anywhere close to the top 20.
I generally prefer the flamethrowers to the control guys, but you have to at least pass the Daniel Cabrera test to pique my interest. Henry Rodriguez, quite soundly, does not.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Nov 21, 2009 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
Not to mention, despite (as I just stated above) the fact that I personally want to see him tried as a starter again,
it doesn’t seem to be in the A’s plans, so ranking him on the whim that maybe someone will make him a starter again, and then maybe he’ll figure out how to throw pitches in the strike zone is a little iffy.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 21, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
I agree -- isn't Rodriguez all about ceiling?
He seems like a guy who has a 95% of never reaching his ceiling or being any good, but that 5%…Wow. Kind of like 19 Daniel Cabreras and a Randy Johnson.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The problem is that you're using starting pitchers for that comparison and not relievers
Really, it’s more like 19 Santiago Casillas and a Carlos Marmol.
Doesn’t seem so hot, does it.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
No, but I've never been all that high on H-Rod
To me, he’s excellent trade bait to a team seduced by the radar gun.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
off the top of my head...
Colt Griffin, Eric Threets, Juan Morillo, Ambiorix Burgos
Some guy in the Nationals org too
think he was a high pick
Ross Detwiler?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Spencer
Matt Spencer is a pretty good ballplayer. A big guy who can run a bit and is a good hitter. He doesn’t draw enough walks, but he is a good player for the future.
I went with Hornbeck because of the K rate
He seems more in the Cole Hamels mold than the Braden mold, i.e., he has bat-missing potential. The ceiling for soft-tossing lefties who know what they’re doing is actually pretty high, e.g., Moyer, Hamels, perhaps Braden.
Kilby is more likely to make it at all — duh — but if I have to choose between a Hamels-Moyer-Braden-y AA prospect and a 26 year old rookie reliever, I’ll take the former. I’ll go with Kilby next, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He actually got compared to Hamels by the A's brass
Granted, that’s self-serving to a certain degree, but it does indicate that they saw his 2009 performance very very favorably.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Braden's K rates in the low minors were actually very high too.
I know I’m a famous Dallas Braden enthusiast, but I would say that Braden’s potential is very very similar to Cole Hamels’.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Nov 20, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Yep, Braden had better numbers than Hornbeck
They both pitched in Stockton in their age-21 season. Braden had a slightly better K rate and a better walk rate. Braden also held his own in the Texas League that year.
And Braden’s K rate didn’t collapse as he moved up the system. He struck out 128 guys in 117 IP in AAA.
As for Hamels, his average FB has been 90.5 MPH according to Fangraphs. That’s below average for an MLB SP, but it’s pretty far from a soft tosser. And it’s faster than Hornbeck, from the reports I’ve seen.
And
Braden’s at 87.6, although his velocity has increased each year.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I must have underestimated/remembered Braden's minor league K/rates
Certainly the idea that Braden could be as good as Hamels is helped by the fact that as Braden seems to be improving, Hamels appears to be getting worse.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Scout.com just released their 50 Top's A's prospects list
Their list tends to differ from the one AN is producing. Some notables…
6-7-8: Stassi/Ynoa/Desme
13-14-15: Ross/H. Rodriguez/DLS
My boy Dixon is at 28, Hornbeck is at 37
Link for legal reasons, it’s Insider content so if you don’t have an account don’t waste your time.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Hornbeck at 37? Wow
I’ve voted for him for the last two spots because of his Ks. Maybe I am overrating him, but I have a hard time believing we have 36 better prospects than Hornbeck.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
Yeah that list is ridonkulous
I don’t care if the guy throws 70 MPH, he’s not the 37th best prospect in the system.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Melissa has substantially more credibility with me than anyone here.
For one thing she actually has access to managers, coaches, scouts and others that we typically do not. For another, she spends a lot more effort coming up with that list than we do.
She uses a professional process, rather than doing what it looks like most people do here, which is either go with their gut, or superficially crunch minor league numbers and then go with their gut.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 21, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's a good point.
No matter how crazy her list might look to me, I’m going to think twice and twice more before doubting Melissa Lockard. She definitely knows her stuff.
Wherever there’s a guy who is way off from what the AN community thinks, I want to ask her, “Hey, what is it you’re seeing about this guy that we’re not?”
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Does she have a mailbag or anything like that on Scout?
I can’t believe there are 36 better prospects, but I am willing to listen.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
The AFL championship is on MLBTV right now
Any prospect watchers who need a break from college football can switch over and watch some of our guys try to take home the championship.
Oh an Grant Desme just smashed a HR
Turned on an inside fastball and drove it well over the wall in left.
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