Huston Street and the Blown Save
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 6:52 PM PST
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PrintFellow ANers,
It would appear, as a relatively new member of this community, that I have unknowingly stepped into the middle of an ongoing debate with regard to the legitimacy of Blown Saves. Personally, I am very interested in any and all reasonable arguments on either side of the spectrum, but currently I stand with the belief that blown saves are significant. (By the way, some sites do track the stat, including YahooSports.)
For my part, this whole conversation got started with this years ROY award going to Andrew Bailey. Almost immediately, parallels were drawn between Bailey and former Oakland Athletic Huston Street. I happen to feel that comparison is unfair to both players. Its unfair to Street, because he has proven longevity at the closer position in the bigs, and thats no small feat. It's unfair to Bailey, because he technically had a better rookie year than Street, and doesn't have a penchant for Blown Saves (and crucial ones at that). And there in lies the controversy, at least for my part, that got this conversation going.
Some in this community believe "that blown saves are irrelevant", some in this community believe Huston Street was a good closer as an Athletic, and some in this community believe both of those things. I, with no disrespect to anyone here, do not, on either account. I don't even think he was average, and for me his penchant for Blown Saves bears that out.
Lets look at the facts, shall we? During his time in Oakland, Huston Street had 27 blown saves in 121 regular season opportunities. That means Huston only saved 77.69% of his opportunities; It also means he blew almost one fourth of his chances, depending on how you look at it. IMO that is outrageous, and well, well below even average for the league. Hence, my feelings on Street.
***UPDATE*** [Because Micdog wanted more stats] ***UPDATE***
Here are some other players to compare. Players listed are those whose careers began after SVO becam a tracked stat. Older players like Mariano don't have career SVO totals, but these are closers your all familiar with from across the spectrum.
Eric Gane: 187 SV, 204 SVO, 91.66%
Joe Nathan: 247 SV, 276 SVO, 89.49%
Francisco Rodriguez 243 SV, 283 SVO, 85.86%
Brad Lidge: 195 SV, 233 SVO, 83.69%
Francisco Cordero 250 SV, 306 SVO, 81.69%
Huston Street 129 SV 158 SVO, 81.65% [In Oakland: 94 SV, 121 SVO, 77.69%]
***END OF UPDATE***
By the way, while Street did have one of his best years in the bigs with the Rockies last season, saving 35 and only blowing 2 regular season games, it seems he still cant hold/save the biggest games......
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/10/13/street.rockies.ap/
Sounds all to familiar doesn't it. At least it wasn't another 'no doubter' into the stratosphere, right? (Ahem 2006!) That ball is still in the air somewhere over Eastern Europe I think.
As for the legitimacy of Blown Saves, I really am interested in arguments to the contrary. IMO the legitimacy of a certain statistic should not be called into question simply because there are a few instances in which the accumulation of said stat may seem harsh or unfair. Sure there are ridiculous ways that an individual pitcher can pick up a blown save, but IMO the vast majority of blown saves are just regular, run-of-the-mill, Brad Lidge type blown saves. A closer comes in in the 9th inning with a three run or less lead, and just blows it. Maybe he catches a bad bounce or two (these things happen), or maybe he gets shelled, either way the save is blown and its significant cause there is rarely recovery possible; The game is usually over, and in the end thats what its all about (yes bbgirl), Ws and Ls, with blown saves most often leading directly to the latter.
Sure, Blown Saves may not be the "be-all-to-end-all" statistic for closers, but it certainly seems significant to me. I really am interested in all opinions here, so open my eyes to your truth on this matter, and maybe we can all kick the ball forward in this debate.
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Unfortunately......
I asked him last night, but he wasn’t telling. I think we’ll have to look elsewhere for the answers to this debate.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
you should hide behind Obama
Bush doesn’t have presidential powers anymore and can’t protect you.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
How does BP stand for "brain cell"?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Viva La Raza!
Spanglish someday will be the one-world language!
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 19, 2009 12:53 AM PST up reply actions
batting practices?
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 20, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
Monica Lewinsky leads the league.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Way to hit below the belt.....
at least we know to wear a cup when in ur presence……
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 21, 2009 12:48 AM PST up reply actions
Double gah.
will crosby spread his legs so far apart at bat that the games will have to be rated nc-17 -- emperor nobody
you really should have statistical proof that the blown save is relevent as a stat.
instead of just your opinion because your fellower ANers will want proof.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I updated just for you......
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
it was for you :-)
I was on the fence about the importance of the blown save stat but the people arguing with you expect evidence. I glad this discussion went better than the previous one.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
lol.
Not even worth it.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
thats alright....
Nico actually held down your end quite well, and actually changed my feelings on the matter somewhat.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
Just one thing to say here...
I’m glad you signed your “real” name at the end of the post, because I couldn’t figure out what all those random characters and capital letters were supposed to mean. Now I know. Thanks.
Just call him "Sneaky Booty"
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Reasons why "blown saves" is not an especially helpful stat:
- It’s too easy to “earn” a blown save without doing anything wrong. The instance where a closer comes in with the tying run in scoring position or even at 3B with less than two out, and can blow a save by giving up a routine fly ball, or a single, is not a “once in a blue moon” example. It happens all the time.
- It’s also too easy to “earn” a save by arbitrarily pitching “just not horribly enough,” such as inheriting a 2-run lead, giving up 3 hits and a run in 1 IP, and escaping with the lead intact. This is even more common than the first scenario, given how many saves are “earned” by protecting a 2 or 3 run lead for an inning.
- You can blow a save without even being in position to get a save. Middle relievers who lose leads in the 7th or 8th, and never pitch the 9th, are assessed to have blown a save even though had they preserved the lead they wouldn’t have had a chance to get a save.
If every save opportunity was “protecting a one-run lead for 1 IP,” the “blown save” stat might have a little more relevance. But given how many of the save chances require the closer to pitch extraordinarily well or exceptionally badly in order to earn/blow the save, the stat reflects the range of difficulty of a small sample of chances as much as it reflects how the pitcher performed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 18, 2009 8:40 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
Agreed
The Angels have perfect the art of the “easy” save for Rodriguez and Fuentes. Many of theirs came in very low-leverage situations. That’ll skew things just a bit more than a team where the closer is always trying to protect a 1-run lead.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I have to ask....
It seems by your second bullet point you do not believe the SV is a good stat either, so you? You answer will be interesting, especially considering Bailey’s ROY award, and how many votes he might have received due to the rookie A’s saves record he now holds. Of course many probably voted on his rookie leading ERA too.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions
.........
it should read, “do you?”
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, I think saves are a very meaningless stat
First of all, the best way to get a high number of saves is to get a lot of chances. Closers also often do not pitch in the highest leverage situations. Bailey was awesome not because he ended up with over 30 saves. He was awesome because he generally gave up very few hits, BBs, or runs, struck out a ton of batters, and did it pitching in a lot of high leverage situations (some of which were save situations and some of which weren’t).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 18, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Also, by your 3rd point......
I thought the new lexicon regarding middle relievers was “blown hold”, no? I have heard that a lot, you? Its interesting, and I know yahoo sports tracks blown saves, but I did not check any middle relievers. Hold that thought………
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions
Actually.......
there would be no way for me to know, other than by memory, whether a middle reliever blew a 9th inn save while the closer got the day off, or a middle inning outing, even if his stats were on Yahoo Sports. Damn, thwarted. Any ideas?
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 8:56 PM PST up reply actions
Most excellent middle relievers / set up men have save records like
1/7. That’s because they almost never pitch the 9th inning, but they occasionally lose a lead (sometimes just a run charged to another reliever).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
What about the "blown hold" concept for middle relievers.....
I totally agree that the Blown Save is bogus for middle relievers, I just thought the current lexicon for them was ‘blown hold’.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
I don't like the "hold" concept at all
Preserving a tie is crucially important. Letting a 3-run lead evaporate to just a 1-run lead is a bad idea. “Did you inherit a lead and leave with a lead?” is just not the be all and end all when it comes to relief pitching.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 18, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Well.....
they need to figure out something, especially for middle relievers. My new recommendations for MLB based on this discussion are as follows.
For Closers: Create separate SV categories, like the one run save (SV1), the two run save (SV2), and the three run save (SV3)
For Middle Relievers: Record Scoreless Outings (SCO)
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
Simply expand the recorded stats again.....
like they did before.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not a big stats geek, but
I’m pretty sure that excellent ways of evaluating middle relievers already exist. You could try asking the stat geeks here what numbers they like to use … both generically for evaluating relievers, and specifically what the numbers have revealed with regard to whether certain relievers are better in more highly leveraged situations.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
WPA is tailor-made to handle context-dependent situations like this.
And you could always resort to FIP, tRA, or even simply ERA if you wanted to go the context-independent route.
s0sN…, WPA does what you propose (wih the SV1, SV2, SCO, etc) but far more precisely and accurately.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
Is there a WPA article.....
written for statistics dummies like myself, that can explain Win Probability Added, and the factors used in its calculation? I would like to understand it, but its over my head at this point.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
I wrote a Fanpost on a similar, but related topic.
You could also go straight to the source.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
ty
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions
Here's my take
No research put into it, purely my opinion
70% = bad
75% = average
80% = good to solid
85% = excellent
90% and up = elite
Last of the Ninth - Photography
That's about right -- the problem being
that out of 40 chances the difference between one level and the next is 2 blown saves (e.g., 32/40 vs. 30/40) and two blown saves is as likely “easier/harder set of 40 chances” or “Luis Castillo camped under it and…oops.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Now thats putting it in a way.....
that makes me think. I like it! But what about career numbers? Dont you think, over a few seasons or even a career, that the easy saves and the hard saves would even out/cancel each-other out?
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
Eventually they do more and more, yes.
However, many closers have relatively short “primes” or only close for a stretch of 2-3 years. As for the exceptions who are asked to close for years and years — Trevor Hoffmann, Mariano Rivera, etc. — do we need to look at save %age to understand that they’re really really good?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Do we look at the ratio to figure out they're good? No
But when do, we certainly expect to find a higher than norm.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Just tells you that your sample size is too small
I actually don’t disagree with any of your points above. I do believe that the numbers alone mean very little, but when you run comparables, it does have some meaning (as Flashfire sort of displays). With enough of a sample size, comparing to other closers, it does give you a framework to work with, just not enough to really get anything but a very broad understanding of how good a closer is.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
I agree
And my position on Street has always been that he’s a very good reliever and a decent (but not elite) closer, which is borne out when you look at saves and save % I think he’s actually an “80%” bet to close a random game. The fact that he’s a little below that for his career is attributable to times he pitched hurt and shouldn’t have been out there.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Right.
And unfortunately a lot of Street’s failings have come as a result of his health. His numbers would likely be a lot better if he hadn’t pitched during those times (both with Oakland & Colorado), but even still, he’s just a very good reliever, good closer.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
I think you've hit the nail on the head here......
Over the span of a career, or at least a decent amount of time, I think the %age is a good tool for general comparison.
So you all have changed my view. I no longer feel the Blown Save is as significant as I did when writing this post. On the other hand, I’m still not willing to call it totally irrelevant.
Let the Kids play Billy!! No More Rent-a-Vet in Oakland!!
by s0sNe@kYbUtY? on Nov 18, 2009 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
Street was just steaky. And it usually had to do with his slider. He would be lights out for a month or two. Then sometimes out of nowhere Macha would use him 4 games in a row. Followed by rumors that he was over used or playing injured and he would give up leads. If his slider had it’s usual like hard bite he was very good.
Hard bite is good when you're steaky.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Nov 18, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
s0 sTe@kY, but Y?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Nov 18, 2009 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Where's the beef in this comment?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It's been 25 years, and I'm still pissed off about that.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
You're still pissed off at Fritz?
It's the fans that make the game fun. -- Rickey Henderson, July 26, 2009.
by Englishmajor on Nov 19, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
No, he's pissed off at Joe Sedelmaier...
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 19, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions
QOTM, December 1984
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 20, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
Yes.
Well, sort of. I actually blame the stupid news media, not Fritz.
I wondered if anyone would know what I meant by that. You supported your fellow Minnesotan, I presume?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Someday, when I run for president, my slogan will be
“It’s morning in America, asshole!”
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 20, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions
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