Are We Seeing A Shift Away from Win/Loss?
by baseballgirl on Nov 18, 2009 10:03 AM PST
28 comments
And the awards continue...
For all of my complaining in recent years about how the baseball writers ignore even the most basic of stats (ERA, WHIP) in favor of Win/Loss records and team standings, I think they got it right this year with Zack Greinke's Cy. It's not like I made up the bias out of thin air; I'm pretty sure the 2005 voting jaded me on these awards. Bartolo Colon's 21 wins overshadowed both Johan Santana's (who placed third!) and Mariano Rivera's seasons, despite Colon's deficit in all other categories.
But this year was something different. Greinke won the SB Nation voting by a landslide, but I figured that was a blogger thing, and we haven't yet bridged the gap to the baseball world. I was wrong.
Zack Greinke was voted the Cy Young award winner yesterday by a similar landslide; and he did it all with a W/L record of 16/8, on a very (VERY) bad team. Maybe that's why the sixteen wins were so impressive? But more importantly, he beat out a pitcher with 19 wins. Would it have been the same vote had Felix managed to secure the magic 20th win? I'd like to think so, but again, see 2005.
Today's awards will be the Managers of the Year. I've already written in Scioscia; adversity and all that jazz. But as many have pointed out, how hard is it to win the AL West, really? Jim Tracy should take the NL. And the people who probably care most about this award are the ones who think managers make a significant difference overall in the season. [Update] Both Scioscia and Tracy have won their respective awards.
So, are we seeing a shift in the way baseball pitchers are evaulated in MLB itself? And what are the qualities of a winning manager?
Today's award results will be announced in about an hour. Let's pretend that Bailey wins the ROY again!
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I voted for Barry Zito for NL Cy Young...
The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby
MY EYES ARE BURNING!!!
MAKE IT STOP!
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 18, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
Posnanski wrote a nice blog entry about this issue
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/17/v-is-for-value/
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
As someone whose baseball watching goes back to the '50s...
I never felt, back in the day, that the Cy Young or MVP were, as awards, entirely about skill. The MVP could award the best player in the league, or the most inspirational player, or the player with the most importance on a winning team. The Cy Young, I always thought, was based on a combination of skill and luck. It sometimes went to the best starter in the game. Sometimes it went to the most lucky of the top starters in the game.
Part of the joy of watching the game - up until the ‘90s when the statistics people changed, for better or worse, the conversation - was rooting for your favorite pitcher to win the game, or your favorite player to drive in the extra run or get to .300. And you knew that luck played a role: the out-of-reach single that cost the game, the invisible swing for a third strike that ended the game, the bloop single that won the game when your pitcher was pulled for a pinch hitter that inning. All that was luck. And it was a big part of things. If your favorite pitcher had an off-day and managed, through luck, to squeak by, with a win on the way to 20, you didn’t care if he sucked. He won, and it made a difference.
I don’t know. Maybe the reliance on quality in determining awards is a good thing. Certainly I was rooting for Grienke because he was so overwhelmingly the best starter in baseball this year, no matter what his W-L record was. But I’m still nostalgic for the old days too. The year, as Posnanski points out, that John Smoltz beat out Kevin Brown - maybe it’s obvious that Brown was the better pitcher, and Smoltz had the better luck. But to my way of thinking, once you combined the luck and the skill, Smoltz maybe did have a case to win. At least then.
Today, not at all. As Posnanski also points out, pitchers who go five or six innings are far less likely to get a winning decision than in the past (Losing decisions are probably not all that different because so many games are lost by starters who just don’t have it at all in the first three innings), so wins need to play a lesser role.
Still, this is totally irrational, but I wish Grienke had gotten to 20.
I think his point was that pitchers who only pitch 6 innings don't *deserve* a winning decision...
even though they often get one. The W needs to play a lesser role mostly because it’s a poorly-conceived stat, but also because even if the stat did communicate something meaningful about the pitcher’s performance, by participating in only 2/3 of the game, guys are doing less to “earn” the same W.
Stewart: "What really needs to be clear is it wouldn't have mattered if there was an earthquake or not. We were going to beat the Giants.
I was really hoping Greinke would win in a landslide, because he was sooooooo much better than anyone else this year. It would have been a crime for him not to win it. So I’m glad that came to fruition. However, I think if King Felix had won a 20th game, it would have shifted the other way. Sadly, 20 wins seems to be one of those plateaus that wipes out all other stats.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Nov 18, 2009 12:55 PM PST reply actions
I could repeat the
exact same comment I made about Bailey winning the ROY. Just replace “Bailey” with “Greinke”.
Also, I think it should be acknowledged that Felix really did have a great season. Don’t get me wrong. Greinke absolutely deserved the award, and I’m sure even the folks on LL will agree, but it’s not like Felix coasted to 19 wins by being on a 100-win team with great hitters. Felix pitched well enough to deserve the award in some other years; it’s just that this year there was another guy who was phenomenal.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
When do the A's play again?
I’m ready for A’s baseball!
No Hannahan or Crosby… God I can’t wait!
The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby
Could i +1 this any more???
Only one slight problem, though, homes: I’m not sure that whoever is replacing those two will be much better (until, at least, our top prospects come along). The good thing, I’m sure people will be quick to point out, is that WHOEVER is at those two positions has more upside than their predecessors, and that in itself is a glory to behold.
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 18, 2009 8:41 PM PST up reply actions
Eh, I'd say not the way you think
Hernandez, Verlander and Sabathia all were 19-game winners, and there was the suggestion that Greinke’s 16-8 record, a rather modest win total for a Cy Young winner, might override his Major League-best ERA of 2.16. But that did not happen.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Ha ha. I wish Greinke was ours.
Around here, among Royals fans in Kansas City, there’s been a persistent buzz about whether Zack Greinke would win the Cy Young Award as the American League’s best pitcher.
Out there, in Zack Greinke’s offseason in Orlando, not so much.
"Not really," he says. "I’ve been playing this ‘World of Warcraft’ game."
by LongLiveLangerhans on Nov 18, 2009 4:23 PM PST reply actions
More great Greinke quotes
From the NYT
"I thought that could push him over the top, because his won-loss record was way better than mine," Greinke said. "But I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control."
"That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible," Greinke said.
by LongLiveLangerhans on Nov 18, 2009 5:56 PM PST reply actions
love it
"The A's get some action but they do not score..." -Glen Kuiper
"Anyone who calls themselves the Angels Angels should have to start over and ride the short bus." -timmeh from McCovey Chronicles
That's hilarious
"Bobby Crosby at third is a bit of an adventure. And not like, here’s some hidden treasure, what fun. More like, gah! poison ants!" --alea iacta est
by baseballgirl on Nov 18, 2009 8:16 PM PST up reply actions
Aha!
Bannister’s multiplying. He’s long been known as one of the very few (the only?) baseball players who follows and studies advanced sabermetrics. Awesome.
No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.
A few years ago he could've FIPped him the Byrd
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Nov 19, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
OT - this is potentially interesting
Two pitchers who would be great additions for Oakland, and the A’s actually have some financial flexibility in 2010 and 2011 (when Chavez is off the books). Considering the cost could be mostly money and not prospects, it’s intriguing.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
OT of your OT
but huge props to Ziggy for his quote on Curt Flood
Good on Byrnsie too. Also nice to see a young-un like Scherzer speak with some knowledge.
Stewart: "What really needs to be clear is it wouldn't have mattered if there was an earthquake or not. We were going to beat the Giants.
Flood v. Kuhn
It’s a pretty interesting case, even if you’re only interested in baseball. Justice Harry Blackmun, who wrote the opinion, begins with a brief overview of the origins of professional baseball and a shoutout to fifty or so of the early era’s best players.
Thanks to Google Scholar, you can read it here.
by LongLiveLangerhans on Nov 18, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
All Supreme Court opinions are available as part of the public domain
Actually, that’s true of all federal court opinions, and indeed state court opinions, though finding them is not as easy.
Openjurist.org is particularly useful for people who don’t have Lexis or Westlaw access. It allows you to do full-text Google searches of federal court opinions.
That opinion is really hilarious. For one thing, Part I is completely non-topical, which is not exactly normal for Supreme Court opinions. Like most legal writings, they tend to be fairly terse.
For another thing, Justice White, the ex-football player, joins the entire opinion except Part I.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Apparently, it was considered "beneath the dignity of the court."
And Chief Justice Burger also concurred in all but part I.
From Wikipedia:
Blackmun himself acknowledged in 1987 that his colleagues on the Court had, as Burger and Douglas’s opinions suggest, seen it as “beneath the dignity of the Court”. But he expressed no regrets, save the discovery by his clerks that, after the decision had issued, he had forgotten Mel Ott. In his personal copy of the decision he penciled Ott’s name in.
by LongLiveLangerhans on Nov 19, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions
what a semi-corrupted fanboy
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 19, 2009 12:50 AM PST up reply actions
Although, I do from time-to-time barter in accepted currency
I’m a much more passionate supporter of the King’s trade:
Human.
In fact, that’s what originally brought me to become a fan this team. It was a King’s trade utopia and everybody knew it. The front office stank of raw meat. You could smell it in the newspapers. And the whole trade community was asking,
“What is he going to do next?”
I propose a trade of Brett Anderson, Josh Donaldson and cash for Juan Pierre.
by ErikFanClubPres on Nov 18, 2009 10:08 PM PST reply actions
How is Anderson for Pierre a good trade in the first place?
Let alone adding Donaldson?
I don’t think I’d even trade Donaldson for Pierre straight up at this point.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
I'm not sure I'd brake
if I saw Pierre crossing the street
(he’s fast enough; he’ll get out of the way!)
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Nov 19, 2009 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
This SN is obviously either a troll or some kind of bizarre performance art
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Troll?!
A Troll is what’s between your legs.
by ErikFanClubPres on Nov 19, 2009 9:00 PM PST reply actions
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