Community Prospect List #16

Welcome back Zonis.

because he is the most likely to help the big league club within the next year, and this is prospect #16.

Dixon next

Two years ago he was still a very good pitching prospect with very good control. Last year he was a fine prospect. I know little other than he did not have a very good year at AAA. Can anyone enlighten me as to why this bad year has dropped him so far down the list?

In spite of lengthy opportunity, no one convinced me that anyone left on the list is any better. A probably-competent relief pitcher isn’t terribly thrilling, but it definitely has some value.

I remain unconvinced by Coleman. He might magically turn into a good shortstop, but as far as I can tell he’s no more likely to do so than Gregorio Petit is. What am I missing?

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune had this good piece of info:

A’s GM Billy Beane is encouraged by pitcher Fautino de los Santos’ recovery from Tommy John surgery. De los Santos, a headliner in the deal that sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox, was throwing 95 mph in the Instructional League, according to Beane. …

if I’m reading this right and you actually made a point of getting this post up before you zonked out in your bed after a 16-hour flight, then mad props to you. That’s dedication!

The last time I returned from Australia, I made the critical mistake of sleeping during the day, and I was jetlagged for 3 weeks….

Voted Coleman here as I’ve done for a while, I’ve already made my argument for him in past posts, and it looks like I don’t need to beat a dead horse with his lead.

I’m not getting too excited about Hornbeck until he makes the jump to AA, where most soft-throwing low-level K fiends flame out, but I’ll probably start voting for him next, because of the possibility of him adding further velocity (he’s already added a lot this year, and he has a very projectable stature) and his obvious feel for pitching and the possibility that he does successfully make the jump.

As much as it makes sense to vote for a solid relief prospect, who has little likelihood of total failure but obviously little upside, I don’t think I’ll be able to bring myself to do it. Pulling numbers directly from my ass, let’s say Pedro Figueroa has a 10% chance of producing an average of 3 WAR over his 6 years cost controlled, a 15% chance of producing an average of 2 WAR, and a 75% chance of producing nothing (I figure the A’s wouldn’t let him contribute for 1 WAR, with their pitching depth, and since the experiment is arbitrary and hypothetical anyway, there’s not much reason to make it more complicated), that gives him a 10% chance of 18 WAR, a 15% chance of 12 WAR, and a 75% chance of 0 WAR. Let’s say that makes him worth 0.1*18 + 0.15*12 + 0 WAR as a prospect, or 3.6 Projectable WAR.

That’s a ridiculous method of course, if I were doing a study, there would be much more complicated weights, etc. But I’m just trying to make a point.

So let’s say then that Brad Kilby has a 10% chance of producing an average of 2 WAR over the next 6 years, a 50% chance of producing an average of 1.5 WAR, and a 40% chance of producing an average of 1 WAR over the next 6 years. That would equal (by the same process) 8.1 Projectable WAR.

So by my own logic, I should be voting for Kilby. And hence, I will indeed vote for Kilby over Figueroa. I’ve convinced myself.

Haha, it just seems wrong! But my hypothetical arbitrary prospect evaluation process doesn’t lie!

Let’s find out.

By the way, anybody feel free to tell me where things should be weighted more and less, where people have more or less potential, etc. This is really just an exercise.

Ben Hornbeck:
5%: 4 WAR
5%: 3 WAR
20%: 2 WAR
70%: 0 WAR
4.5 Projectable WAR

James Simmons:
10%: 3 WAR
35%: 2 WAR
55%: 0 WAR
5.4 Projectable WAR

And since I just voted for him, how about Coleman:

Dustin Coleman:
10%: 5 WAR
10%: 4 WAR
10%: 3 WAR
10%: 2 WAR
60%: 0 WAR
8.4 Projectable WAR.

Well that validates myself, but I’m certainly being optimistic on Coleman having a 10% chance of turning into a perennial 5 WAR player… but hey, it’s nice to have some sort of process.

Projectable WAR:

Chris Carter:
10%: 6 WAR
10%: 5 WAR
10%: 4 WAR
10%: 3 WAR
10%: 2 WAR
50%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 12

Brett Wallace:
20%: 4 WAR
20%: 3 WAR
20%: 2 WAR
40%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 10.8

Adrian Cardenas:
10%: 5 WAR
20%: 4 WAR
20%: 3 WAR
10%: 2 WAR
40%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 11.6

Jemile Weeks:
5%: 5 WAR
10%: 4 WAR
25%: 3 WAR
10%: 2 WAR
pWAR: 9.6

Grant Desme:
5%: 6 WAR
5%: 5 WAR
10%: 4 WAR
10%: 3 WAR
5%: 2 WAR
65%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 8.1

HRod:
20%: 2 WAR
20%: 1.5 WAR
60%: 0 WAR
pWAR: 4.2

I apologize. What number was Andrew Bailey on last year’s AN prospect list?

just so the awful, awful, affront to humanity of a nickname “HRod” can die.

Anything else. Hell, HenRod, for all I care.