2010 Community Prospect List - #6

On the topic of voting

One thing that would be interesting if AN could support it would be order of preference voting. I think especially in a race like this, it would be interesting. It is the way the Australian voting system works, as well as votes for Cy Young, MVP, RoY, ect… are done.

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Oct 9, 2009 8:23 PM PDT reply actions

You mean Borda count, or IRV?

As Iglew pointed out on the last thread, they frequently produce different results.

Still voting for Corey Brown. Will unlimber the Sean Doolittle rocket launcher when the time is ripe (i.e. after Leon, Brown and possibly Donaldson have cleared).

I definitely like the 7 currently on the vote for the next 7 slots. After that I’d suggest either Simmons, Capra, Kilby, or de los Santos.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Unlimber!

Paul! Nice!

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 9, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I've been playing a lot of computer ACW wargames lately :)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Groin is unlimber, sir?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 9, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions

For next on I like

I like Capra, Stassi, Simmons, Krol

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Bit early for Krol wouldn't you say?

by DeJay on Oct 10, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't hink that putting Krol on at 11 is that early

hell probably fall in the 15 range for me, with DLS’s set back I think that he probably will be below Krol on my list.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions

He is an exciting prospect but there are too many question marks for my liking to rank him that high

He does not have overwhelming stuff. He missed his entire senior year of high school. He has not professional track record. BA ranked him as the 184th best prospect in the draft and I don’t see what he has done to improve on that. Sure the A’s gave him $900k but that was by all accounts an overpay (one I am glad we paid) and it was based mostly on potential.

by DeJay on Oct 10, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions

By all accounts?

No, by one account… Someone else had him ranked as the top prospect in his state entering his senior season. Even assuming that damaged his stock somewhat, and it’s not even clear that it should… surely better than seventh-round material.

Really, once you get below the top 50 or so, the numerical rankings make little sense anyway because it’s so difficult to compare players head to head.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok fine - according to two sources I have seen he was an overpay.

But that is hardly my point. He was better than a 7th round talent and I am glad he is in our system. But my points on why he shouldn’t be ranked this high in our system are still valid.

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Which two

The numbers I heard thrown around were around 750k which is less than 900k but not that much less.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions

BA and Andy Seiler.

Yeah I heard the A’s originally offered $700k and then made a second offer of $900k. I am happy with the overpay as you need to overpay for all signability picks that fall, otherwise they wouldn’t have fell! I just think their are sufficient factors to stop us from ranking him this high.

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Im high on the kid

but that could just be me.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Andy Seiler as a source?

The guy just started his blog—on Word Press. He is by no means an “scholastic-level” source. That’s pretty much like quoting wikipedia as a source. The truth is that I have yet to see any evidence that he has any sources other than BA, BP, Sickels and other established analysts.

Don’t get me wrong, I like reading the guy’s posts, but he does not count as a quotable source.

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 11, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

And 750K is high sandwich round money

184th-best prospect, on the other hand, is a late 5th rounder.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions

He was the 25th best HSer before being suspended though.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions

True but you can't deny that losing his senior season is a good thing

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

or a bad thing, or something else that makes sense

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

No I know

Im just saying its not like he was a mediocre prospect. He was a good prospect with a very big question. If the A’s are satisfied with that answer there is no reason that they should be willing to pay for him.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I know

That’s what I’m saying— there’s no way he dropped from 50th best or so to 184th best just because of some makeup questions.

The talent is commensurate with the money he got. The only question is whether he can stay out of trouble and the A’s have had some success with that sort of player in recent years.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Kilby?

I am surprised.

by DrDoom on Oct 9, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Assured MLB impact which even as a reliever has huge value.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Not really...a 1.5 WAR player for a couple of years isn't a huge value....no matter how assured.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions

And yet you continue to mention Henry Rodriguez

who has at best a similar ceiling to Kilby and is much less likely to reach it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Obviously I disagree with your opinion

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions

But don't care to actually explain why

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Relative Worth of Relief Pitchers

In discussing the ranking of our prospects, several people, including PT, have offered that relief pitchers are worth less than other positions. So much so that they should not be near the top of the rankings.

I am not a stat guy, but I certainly respect all that stats can tell you. I do not understand how WAR or other worth-stats are calculated or what they consider to be worthwhile.

But I look at a starting pitcher who throws 200 innings in a season. Then I see a relief pitcher who throws maybe 70 innings in a season, probably with slightly better stats than the SP. So in round numbers, just through innings pitched, a RP would be worth maybe 35-40% of a SP?

Am I way off on that generalization? Is that 35% of a SP’s worth so small that it makes a good RP prospect almost not worth listing?

I hear many say that the Oakland bullpen is one of the best in baseball. So was the Sacramento bullpen this year. That is why we have such depth at the position. It seemed to me that in September, when we won so many games, that when our young starters handed the game over to the pen, I felt pretty sure we would hold the lead. That seemed worth a lot to me.

Am I over-estimating the worth of the pen? Perhaps because they are the ones on the mound at the final out that wins the game.

Really. I would appreciate some education on why many here don’t seem to put a lot of value in the pen. Or maybe I am reading everyone wrong.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 10, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

35% of a starter's worth is really not worth very much, no

6 WAR would be basically a guy contending for a Cy Young. 1/3 of that is 2 WAR, which is about as valuable as an average position player.

Yet there are only 5-10 relievers a year who are that good. (Just like there are only 5-10 starters who contend for a Cy Young.)

Bullpen pitchers get overrated because people hate losing leads more than they like actually winning games. It’s some kind of logical kink in human psychology.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks

by redtopcowboy on Oct 10, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I should add, BTW

that the impact of “the bullpen” combined is reasonably large— about as large as a position player or starter and maybe a bit larger— it’s just that one individual member of it isn’t that big a contributor.

So having a “good” bullpen is at least as important as having a good shortstop, but adding one guy won’t turn a bad bullpen into a good one.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm glad you added that addendum

I was going to suggest that the valuation of a reliever doesn’t seem very accurate or that possibly there’s a failing somewhere within the valuation process in regards to relievers, but that now makes a lot more sense.

Is it possible that relievers need to be evaluated in the context of how they contribute to the whole of the bullpen instead of to the team as a whole? It may not make a bullpen arm “more valuable” than the average position player, but it would be more helpful to be able to evaluate them within the scope of how they effect the value of the bullpen to the team.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions

It's possible

Valuing relievers is really tricky though, because of situational usage and leverage. A guy might look worse if the manager uses him wrong (coughMarshallsnort).

We know about how big the value of a bullpen is (and by implication, the value of an average reliever, which isn’t very large), but parsing out credit to the individual members of it is tricky.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I can see how that would be tricky

I clearly lack a solid understanding of WAR et al. but is it conceivable that being able to do this sort of valuation (as difficult as it could be to actually do outside of theory), would it be possible to develop a bullpen that could collectively be a 6+ WAR monster? Or does that seem more wishful thinking with the combination of poor bp management and the accuracy of making this sort of valuation?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, the A's BP this year was pretty close to that level of dominance

It’s not easy to do, though. You really need multiple shutdown guys along with a bevy of correctly used situational pitchers.

And there are diminishing returns— replacing Casilla with Devine this year would have helped, but not by that much. That particular problem doesn’t show up in WAR, but it does show up in leverage-adjusted statistics like Win Probability Added. Getting great innings in garbage time doesn’t help much.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions

But does war take into account...

the higher leverage situation top bullpen pitchers pitch in. That contributes highly to at least the overall value of a teams bullpen ace, wouldn’t it?

by throttle mathius on Oct 10, 2009 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions

WAR doesn't take this into account

Win Probability Added, and the associated Leverage Index, do, as PT mentioned above.

by colin on Oct 11, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Thing is, though,

The high leverage situations are a function of the game, not the player. While WPA is cool to look at for prior seasons, it doesn’t tell you much in terms of actual talent, and more importantly, how good a player will be in the future. It’s just like RBI’s or W-L records—different players in different roles get different chances. So while a closer’s WPA may be high, his WPA would fall through the floor if demoted. WAR is a measure of “value in a situational vacuum”, which is a better measure of talent.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 11, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly, if you are looking at RP actual contributions to a historical team

then WPA/LI is not a bad way to do it. If you are looking at a player’s abstract value WAR is where you want to go.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

But there is no vacuum

A pitcher has to pitch in the situation he finds himself in, and some situations are actually tougher than others.

As I stated above, my gut tells me that getting that last game-winning out in a tight game is tougher to get, means more, and has more value than for instance, the second out in the third inning.

My concern on valuing relief pitchers is this. Stats may assume that a run allowed in the third inning is the same as a run allowed in the ninth, but it is not. That ninth-inning-allowed-run is more likely to lose the game. I hear you stat guys call that leverage, and I agree it exists, but I am not sure how it is calculated.

When the reliever walks on the mound with two on base, one away, and defending a one-run lead in the eighth or ninth, I think that is a more difficult situation to pitch in than if he took the mound in the third inning.

Getting out of that tight situation not only has high leverage on the outcome of the game, it is also more difficult to get out of than in an early inning. Pressure, adrenalin, whatever it is, it is tangible in my opinion.

So I disagree with the statement above that WAR is a better measure of talent because it measures talent in a situational vacuum. I think there is additional skill involved, whether physical or mental, to get that ninth inning game-winning out when the chips are down.

For a starting pitcher, his mental and emotional stability on the mound is based on: “Keep throwing my pitches, if bad luck happens – keep throwing my pitches, if hits and runs happen – keep throwing my pitches – in the long run, I’ll come out on top.”

A reliever does not have that luxury. For a late-inning guy at least, he is faced with: " If I allow a run, it’s over."

That is two different worlds, or at least a game with two different outcomes for a run allowed.

So I think stats that assume a-run-is-a-run-is-a-run are missing something and are underestimating the value of relief pitcher performance in late-inning game-on-the-line situations.

Wow-lots of hyphens.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 11, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions

My take on the question of the

last out in a tight game vs some run-of-the-mill out earlier on:

Means more? yes. Has more value? yes.

Harder to get? I doubt it. If so, it’s only because the manager of the hitting team knows it’s more important and is more likely to pinch-hit with a better hitter. But the pitching team is leveraging pitchers, too, for the same reason, so that approximately evens out.

Actually, I’d guess that it favors the pitching side a little, since on the average the bullpen is probably going to have better options than the bench.

I don’t buy the adrenaline/pressure explanation. Yes, those things exist, but I don’t think they make the task harder. And again, it’s affecting the batter just as much. I think the more “tangible” result of the pressure/adrenaline is that it makes the fan more aware of the out and thus exaggerates its value.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 11, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Very good points

You have addressed the crux of the question: Can baseball be better assessed by the eye or by numbers? The answer is clearly better by the numbers.

At least generally.

My gut ( and it is a substantial gut ) keeps crying out that the bullpen and its members are worth more than PT explains above.

I really appreciated PT’s explanation above of the relative WAR values of SP, RP, and position players to a team. Let’s think about those examples.

First example: a Cy Young caliber starting pitcher with a 6 WAR. That pitcher probably wins close to 20 games in a season. My verbose gut tells me that this pitcher adds more than 6 additional wins to the team through his efforts compared to a replacement-level starter. But that is another debate on another day.

PT explains that a really good bullpen might together achieve a 6+ WAR.

My gut again proclaims that a really good bullpen such as this one actually pulls more wins out of the fire than that. Just from watching games, it sure seems that a bad bullpen can lose quite a lot of games, whereas a really good pen can preserve a large number of wins that the lesser pen would have blown.

It sure seems to my gut that the really good pen adds a lot more than 6 additional wins to a season than a mediocre pen.

So I guess I’m saying again that I think a bullpen as a whole is being undervalued, along with its constituate members. Perhaps the statistical analysis still needs some improvement.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 11, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions

The reason why your gut is telling you this

is that your gut is not properly accounting for the fact that every team wins 54 games and loses 54 games and all that matters is what you do in the other 54.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions

The 2001 Mariners and

the 2003 Detroit Tigers are on the phone for you. They say it’s important.

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Oct 11, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Definitely favors the pitching team

Bullpen pitchers allow less runs than starters, while pinch hitters produce way less runs than non-pinch-hitters.

Your explanation of the adrenaline/pressure thing is spot on, and it’s backed up by statistical analyses. The hardest out to get is actually, on average, something like the second out of the fifth inning!

(It’s been a long time since I read the study, and I don’t remember it precisely, thus the vagueness.)

Regardless, the apparent “difficulty” rests entirely in the heads of the viewers.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

This is the problem

As I stated above, my gut tells me that getting that last game-winning out in a tight game is tougher to get, means more, and has more value than for instance, the second out in the third inning.

My concern on valuing relief pitchers is this. Stats may assume that a run allowed in the third inning is the same as a run allowed in the ninth, but it is not. That ninth-inning-allowed-run is more likely to lose the game. I hear you stat guys call that leverage, and I agree it exists, but I am not sure how it is calculated.

Can you explain why it is worse to lose a one run game in the 9th inning than lose a one run game in the 3rd?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Close games are not typically lost in the third

If you end the third inning one run behind, there are plenty of opportunities to change your hitting tactics, or baserunning tactics, or something to make up that one-run deficit. Too late if your team is a run behind after the ninth.

I don’t think that allowing that run in the third is nearly as likely to lose the game as allowing it in the eighth or ninth. Without knowing how to look it up, I would guess that many more one-run deficits in the third have been turned around than one-run deficits in the ninth. But I could be wrong.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 11, 2009 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions

This is true

however, I think you are missing a key point. You lose games because you give up more runs than the other team, not because you give up late runs.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions

And that is where we disagree

I just don’t think a-run-is-a-run-is-a-run. But good discussion. Have to go feed some cows. Later.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 11, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions

In the context of season, I think you're right

But in the context of individual games, I think you’re wrong. Giving up the go ahead run in the bottom of the 9th is not the same as giving up the same run in the top of the 3rd. The “current” outcome (i.e. you’re down a run is the same). The absolute outcome is not. In one case the game is over. In the other, you still have 7 innings worth of ABs to get that single run back.

Now, if you lose a game by a run and whether that run came in the 3rd or 9th is entirely irrelevant (which is what I see you as saying) and that’s absolutely true. But the reason that’s true is because the outcome is known. When the outcome is unknown, the later a run is scored/given up the more valuable it is based on the same scoring situation made earlier in the game.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions

This is exactly true

A run in the 9th means a lot more than a run in the 3rd. See, e.g., any fangraphs game graph.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 11, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Intuitively it would suggest the quality of the 9th inning pitched

is more valuable than the quality of the 3rd inning pitched as well. Not to say (at all) that a reliever is more important than a starter (far from it), simply that the way we evaluate relievers needs to be based comparatively against each other and needs more work. On the whole, I can subscribe to what PT mentioned above regarding individual relievers vs. bullpen as a whole vs. position players. And I can subscribe to the idea that relief prospects aren’t more valuable than position players or starters and the arguments behind them. Just that WAR (as I’m understanding it) isn’t really adequate for evaluating the value of relievers’ contributions.

On a positive note, it looks like they fixed the hidden text problem on comments this far out, albeit, by shrinking the boxes, but it’s better than the alternative.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

The Fangraphs win-probability chart

shows the 9th inning as more important precisely because each inning is calculated not in isolation but with all preceding innings considered to be fixed.

As a thought-experiment, imagine there is a game that has already been completed, but you haven’t yet heard the results. Now imagine that a friend, who has read the box score, fills out nine index cards — one for each inning — writing down the runs scored by each team in that inning. You shuffle the cards and deal them up to yourself. After each deal, try to guess which team won the game.

The most meaningful innning in this little game will not always be the ninth. It will be the one of the last card you flip up.

The point being that the ninth inning is (on average) the most meaningful inning not because runs scored in it have any more significance, but only because in real time the ninth inning is always the last one revealed.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 11, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Right

Which is why it might not say anything about the player’s skill, but it is certainly more important.

Giving up a run in the 3rd inning does a lot less damage than it does in the 9th. There might be edge cases where that isn’t true, but I’m fairly confident that holds at least 90% of the time.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 11, 2009 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions

No, I don't think that's right.

Giving up a run in the 9th inning does not do more damage 90% of the time.

The difference is not that the run in the 9th has more effect; it’s that we have greater certainty of what that effect is. You seem to be thinking only of close games. There are also blowouts, when the run given up in the 9th does almost no damage at all.

Here’s another experiment: I’m not sure where you’d download it, but surely the data must exist that show how many runs were allowed by the home team in the 9th inning in every game this year. We also have data showing who won each game, so you could do an analysis of how well runs given up in the 9th correlates to losing the game. Then you can do the same thing for the 3rd inning, the 1st inning, etc. Are you saying you think runs given up in the 9th inning will be more closely correlated to losing than runs given up in any other inning? I think they will not.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 11, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

To put this more succinctly

The average value of a 9th inning run is the same as the average value of a 1st inning run. The only difference is that the value of a particular 9th inning run varies much farther from the mean (on both sides) than the value of a particular 1st inning run.

It’s not the value that’s increasing, it’s the variance in value.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess that makes sense

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 12, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions

Not really true

If you have two teams who give up the same number of runs, the team that does better in “late and close” situations will win more games than the team that does better in “early” or “late and not close” situations.

Bullpen guys who do well pitching mostly high leverage innings are worth more per inning ex post than starters or low leverage relievers. The problem for including that in WAR is that when a particular reliever is used is not really part of their performance, so in valuing players it would be odd to value two pitchers with the same talent differently because of when they are used.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Can we not make blanket statements

without explaining them? I like player X more than player Y… why is that not an ok post? Maybe its just a gut feeling… We all have those from time to time. We don’t have to defend ourselves to the AN Police.

by DrDoom on Oct 10, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Asking someone to explain their opinion is now "policing" them

My eyes are rolled back so far, they’re staring at my brain stem.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Ow.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 10, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions

I would take Henry over Kilby

but they definitely have similar ceilings in the sense that “great reliever” is not that much better than “really good reliever.”

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 10, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

You think Kilby can be a "really good reliever"?

Like JP Howell or someone like that?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions

He has like a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio the last few years...

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

3:1.. and he'll be a 27 year old rookie reliever next year.

I think that’s a bit more important. I’m not seeing a high ceiling here.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 11, 2009 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you SEE me voting for him at #6?

I know he does not have a high ceiling.

I feel like I’m in “Groundhog Day” or something here— I keep repeating the same comment over and over again. Relief pitchers cannot have high ceilings. It’s not logically possible. Mariano Rivera’s career high in single-season WAR is worse than Ryan Sweeney’s 2009 season.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions

But dude hes a HOFer!

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Paul, you are a really smart guy, therefore

you must see the inherent weakness in WAR, if it says Ryan Sweeney contributes more to a team’s success than Mariano Rivera.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 12, 2009 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions

no just because you think he is doesn't mean that he is.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 12, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Certainly,

and that’s why the “Teixeira has a negative UZR so UZR teh sucks!!!!” stuff doesn’t follow, but I think iglew said it well a few threads back: when a stat doesn’t pass the smell test (as any stat that says that Ryan Sweeney is more valuable than Mariano Rivera doesn’t), two things should be called into question: 1) the conventional wisdom. 2) the stat. In this case, I think the conclusion has to make you at least question whether totally unleveraged UZR tells you everything you need to know about reliever value.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 12, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree that UZR tells us little about reliever value regardless of whether it is leveraged :-P

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 12, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Funny, I thought of the exact same post.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 12, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Paul is one step ahead of you.

He is familiar with the weaknesses of WAR, one of which is that it may be overvaluing Sweeney due to an unsustainably good defensive year.

There are two questions that need to be asked here, and you are only looking at one of them.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 12, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions

The thing is, even if Sweeney's D is HALF as good as it seems

he’s still at or ahead of where Rivera is.

And even if you give Rivera substantial je ne sais quoi credit (for leverage, or something) and call him the better player, what does that prove? That the greatest reliever probably ever to play the game of baseball is slightly better than a mid-level starting outfielder with a nice glove?

They talk about “exceptions proving the rule” way too often but that’s definitely one of them.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 12, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Fine by me

Doesn’t seem to mesh with earlier comments, but I’m fine with it.

by DrDoom on Oct 10, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Kilby will give me 2+ WAR in the majors over his career unless he gets hit by a bus

which has 9m in value. That being said I don’t like him more than a lot of other players but he would be a good value pick at around 10-15 and will probably be one if not the top reliever I vote for.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

plus

I just like the way his pitching motion looks. He’s like “I’m just going to hide the ball here, behind my big old back”… and then it works!

by colin on Oct 10, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure, but what if he's hit by a bus that only worth $2 million?

(Sorry. Dangling clauses amuse me.)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 10, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I believe that the transition from subject to body is the equivilent of a comma, period, or semicolon

also im not sure where you got a $2m evaluation from there but I am more amused than most grammar complaints.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you still need the comma.

As for the $2 million, I was trying to stay somewhat close to your $7m while still being remotely plausible as the value of a bus. Even at $2 million, that’s still a seriously tricked-out bus!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 11, 2009 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions

At $2 million, you'd damn well best be getting a Bradley APC for it

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Im going to do one later in the year that is ranked choice

So well get a sense of the differences at that point.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Cool. That sounds fun.

I assume you won’t try to fit it into AN’s poll. Just ask everyone to submit an ordered list and then run them through a spreadsheet of some sort?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 9, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions

if by spreadsheet you mean the DFA Prospect Re-education Camp, then yes

:-P

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm going to vote for Donaldson as #100 just to screw with you

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 9, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Voted for Green

Even though I chose Donaldson last time. I’ve listened to several people’s cases for the various players and have come to the conclusion that I like Green at this spot for the fact that he’s our best SS prospect despite virtually no time in the minors and that says something to me at least.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 9, 2009 9:09 PM PDT reply actions

+1

Green until he gets on.

by DeJay on Oct 10, 2009 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Ynoa again.

Among the best scouting reports I’ve ever heard for an amateur pitcher. Green would be my second choice based on MikeA’s arguments last thread. After that it’s a pretty big dropoff to the next group..

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 9, 2009 9:12 PM PDT reply actions

Oh and Henry Rodriguez for the list of options.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions

What is with these rumors...

about Henry Rodriguez being good at baseball??

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 10, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Well he isn't good. He just might be good in the future.

He is however really fun to watch.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Dude's still got potential through the roof.

Just incredibly unlikely he reaches it. And I guess the Henry-Rodriguez-the-Starter dream is completely gone now.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Oct 11, 2009 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions

I saw Henry start one game

at Kane County. Let me tell you, low A hitters couldn’t catch up with that fastball.

Also, it was pretty amusing that the stadium radar gun was seriously off and kept reporting his fastball in the mid-seventies.

by colin on Oct 11, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Low A hitters might not be able to

But unless he can control his fastball, and another pitch, he won’t even be that effective of a relief pitcher.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 11, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

His ceiling is basically 2009 Carlos Marmol

and he probably won’t be that good.

My enthusiasm is not overwhelming.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

oh yeah

I totally agree. I just have personal interest in cheering for him because then I can say “I saw that guy pitch in low-A”. But I also saw Doolittle play in that game, so he’s probably a better pick to be rooting for. (and I’m not even going to get started on Jermaine Mitchell)

by colin on Oct 11, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

It is by definition the case that no relief pitcher prospect ever has potential through the roof

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Ya

I guess I contradicted my statement by saying that the plan to start him is done. Is it officially done?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Oct 11, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd say not starting a game all season would count as "done," yes

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Just have problems voting for a pitcher...

who hasn’t pitched yet. Green at least has a few games in the minors and seems to have played well.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 10, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions

4 games

4

Ill say it again 4.

Playing “well” in four games is irrelevant.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Green also has a College track record

hell, even a high school track record to work with. Ynoa has neither. He has none. He has absolutely nothing to account for except scouting reports of potential. That was fine a year ago. Now, not so much. I’m not saying he won’t eventually live up to that potential. But until he actually steps on the field and plays, he really doesn’t exist. In a game of balance between potential and likelihood of reaching the majors, we have nothing to really go on in either case.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions

True

Ynoa has NOTHING though. I mean, I hope I am wrong, and Ynoa is the next Grenkie. I think its just hard to say how good he is with nothing to gauge him against, except 16(24) year old Dominicans.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 10, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Can someone tell me specifically what was wrong physically with Ynoa?

Was he shut down as an extremely precautionary measure, a la Mazzaro, or was it something serious that could perhaps require surgery?

Is it anything that another name change can’t fix? Enoa?

These answers are gonna dictate where I put him.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 10, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

We just don't know that much

It was one of those injuries that could cause Tommy John surgery or could not cause it and we just have no idea which.

Obviously they’re taking extreme precautions but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t warranted.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Went with Green again

I usually prefer players with a little more track record, but I’m going to go with the scouts on this one. Nice big frame who can supposedly handle shortstop, he’s got good all around skills with the bat as well. I think he has the potential to move fast through the system.

by OkayJay81 on Oct 9, 2009 9:17 PM PDT reply actions

think Doolittle's not getting enough respect....

know quantity over Green and an all around better player than Donaldson

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Oct 9, 2009 9:46 PM PDT reply actions

Considering that he is in AAA

Doolittle is an unbelievably unknown, hes had huge ups and downs and this year was hitting very mediocrely before he got hurt which really doesn’t help his status.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't consider him unknown.

I’ve heard more about him than plenty of others discussed here.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 9, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I didn't mean unknown in the sense that you hadn't heard about him

but in the sense that he isn’t a known quantity.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Doh. My bad.

Yeah, that makes sense. I should have gotten that.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 9, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions

NW.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Eh, very mediocrely?

.811 OPS despite a low BABIP and vastly decreased strikeout rate?

He was actually doing all the things I wanted to see him do (other than having a high BABIP) when he went out with the knee injury.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions

dude plays 1b

you have to hit like gangbusters in the minors. He didn’t.

Don’t you think that a vastly decrease strikeout rate could lead to low BABIP?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Doesn't he play a pretty slick RF?

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 9, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions

TZ doesn't like him

how much you should care about that is debatable.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions

It's only in the red for this season

and it’s possible some of that is due to the knee injury. He was above-average last year.

Re: Ks and BABIP, it’s definitely possible that some of the decrease is due to fewer strikeouts, but I have a hard time believing that all of it is.

His overall numbers are, I grant, not overpowering, but I’d put into evidence his lack of experience as a full-time hitter (he’s only played one full season as a hitter in his life) and young age (22 in AAA).

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah from what I've heard

Of the group of 1B of Carter, Wallace, Doolittle and Barton, Doolittle is the best fielding of them all, but will likely be pushed out into RF to make room because he’s the only one capable of playing an above average RF.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 10, 2009 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions

"dude plays 1B"

“you have to hit like gangbusters in the minors. He didn’t.”

this never stopped Barton.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions

He didn't?

2003 (Johnson City, R) – .843 OPS in 54 games
2004 (Peoria, A-) – .956 OPS in 90 games
2005 (Stockton, A+) – .907 OPS in 79 games
2005 (Midland, AA) – .900 OPS in 56 games
2006 (Sacramento, AAA) – .783 OPS in 43 games
2007 (Sacramento, AAA) – .827 OPS in 136 games

OPSing .956 in low-A as an 18 year old isn’t hitting like a gangbuster?

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 10, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions

and OPS would undervalue Barton's OBP skills especially since he is a low HR player

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Very true.

Fangraphs doesn’t have full minor league stats (his only went as far back as Stockton), and Baseball-Reference doesn’t have advanced stats like wOBA or EqA for their minors numbers.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 10, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Im not faulting you for using OPS

im merely stating that it would undervalue his performance.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh, I know.

I kinda wish Fangraphs’s minor league stats were more complete.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 10, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

wow he's worse than I though

cool nice OPS in 2005 there Daric…..nice free-fall ever since.

Add in this year (841) and thats 3 years at AAA and hes never touched 850. Thats not hitting like gangbusters.

Lets compare with Chris Carter now, shall we:
05: 835
06: 895
07: 906
08: 930
09: 992

Now THATS hitting like gangbusters in the minors.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

If we held every 1B prospect to the Chris Carter standard,

No one would have any 1B prospects.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 10, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Justin Smoak

Career minor league OPS: .855
Yonder Alonso career OPS: 837
Ike Davis: 821
Logan Morrison: 834

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Donaldson till hes on

but thinking that Brown Green Ynoa are my next three in some order that probably resembles that one.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:50 PM PDT reply actions

Corey Brown again for me.

I think I’d probably go Donaldson next after that, but I tend to think these through only one step at a time, so not really sure.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 9, 2009 10:00 PM PDT reply actions

Joel Galarraga

I’m not lobbying him to be added soon, but I’m just wondering what the collective thoughts of the community are about this guy. He’s 27, but hit fairly well in the Mexican League, which, IIRC, is similar to AAA (right?) in terms of competition.

Is he basically just minor league filler/emergency backup, or could he actually have a few good years in the major leagues as a backup? I’ve just always been intrigued by the guy for whatever reason.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 9, 2009 10:14 PM PDT reply actions

He's definitely a legit option at backup catcher if he's healthy

The problem is that he missed almost the entire season this year.

Still, with Powell’s own health troubles, he’s almost certain to get a look at some point.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow, these are some pretty tight races

Weeks with 36% and Desme with 29%

That just tells me we’ve got a ton of prospects (probably spots 4-8) that could all be interchangeable in ranking. We’ve also got a lot of awesome prospects. I wonder what our farm system ranking will be in the offseason? I mean, we graduated a lot of guys this year, but we’re still ridiculously stacked.

by cityplANner on Oct 9, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah Florida has a really good system

Texas has graduated a bunch too but still are stacked pretty good.

the Padres system is surprisingly good.

Atlanta has a top heavy system with the best hitting prospect in baseball.

the Cubs restocked their system very quickly.

Cincinnati has an under rated system.

Oriels, depending on graduations might be better than ours.

I would think top 3?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Tampa Bay has Hellickson, Jennings and Davis

plus some fairly good quantity below the headliners. They’re comparable to Oakland despite similarly massive graduations in recent years.

Philly has several high-end prospects.

Cleveland picked up a bunch in the Lee/Martinez trades and is almost certainly better than Oakland at this point.

I’m sure that Baltimore, Texas, Atlanta and Cleveland are in front of Oakland right now. I’d say San Diego, Tampa, and Oakland are about on par in the next tier, with maybe one or two other systems in the same range. So I wouldn’t expect the A’s to be rated higher than 7th or 8th.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Duh I knew I was forgetting a couple

I kind of hated both trades for Cleveland and though their home grown prospects were pretty ok.

I don’t think that Texas is that hot they g, ATLs depth worries me after Hanson graduated especially since they had a pretty bad draft.

Baltimore had wieters and tillman graduate. Matusz (who is only a prospect by 1/3 an inning) and Arrietta Bell and who else? not really a deep system I would put them in our range.

5 is more realistic than three but i think we are higher than you put us.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Atlanta has Jason Heyward

I wouldn’t sell him for $50 million. He’s on a Hall-of-Fame type of minor league trajectory right now.

Baltimore still has strong pitching depth. Besides the guys you mentioned, they have Matt Hobgood, Brandon Erbe and Zach Britton who will probably produce a quality MLB starter from their ranks. Whether you like them over the A’s probably comes down to quantity vs. quality (or maybe pitching vs. hitting).

Texas has like 17 low-minors pitching prospects. I know how mercurial that species is, but it’s almost mathematically impossible for them all to fail. And the top end of the system is still there in Feliz, Perez, Borbon and Smoak.

SD doesn’t look that great on a closer look, so they probably drop back a notch. Washington should be noted though; they might actually might be competitive just based on Steven Strasburg grafted onto a mediocre-but-not-horrible system.

And then there’s the Giants system— it’s a virtual murderer’s row down there! (Yes, thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all week.)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Well I did call Heyward the best hitting prospect in baseball

But beyond him and Freeman they have Tehran plus who?

I forgot about Hobgood but didn’t Britton have major shoulder problems? and you have to favor hitting over pitching prospects…. all of the A’s top prospects are hitters where as bell is basically the only good hitting prospect the Os have.

I thought Feliz graduated along with Borbon (who I have never been a big fan of anyway) Smoak and Perez along with Mitch Moreland are pretty good though. Font is definitely a sleeper along with Kasey Kierker (sp? its three am and ive had some to drink). I wouldn’t feel uncomfortable putting Texas ahead of us but I heart hitting prospects.

TB obviously

I kinda hate the Giants system Bum can’t find his missing fb velo, Keshnick or however you spell it plus Neal are good Crawford isn’t bad but really im not liking their depth at all. Wheeler helps them out a lot though.

So

Florida Mike Stanton is an absolute beast
TB
Texas
Baltimore
Us?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 3:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Well I keep voting for Donaldson DFA

but he keeps losing. Looks like he’s a few behind on this poll. I really can’t see how you can even rate Grant Green yet since he’s only played 4 games.

If I’m reading you right (always a iffy thing) are you saying that the A’s have the 5th best minor league system?

If so that sounds pretty good to me. I was interested to see Baltimore at 4th on your list. They had a few young guys come up this year that look interesting and I guess there could be more on the way.

Of course since they play in the A.L. East it probably won’t matter unless some of those young guys turn out to be truly great players.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 4:00 AM PDT up reply actions

Thank you for the Donaldson support

Baltimore should have a very very good rotation and with Weiters and Adam Jones their offense shouldn’t be abysmal. Being in the Al East means that they are going to have to hurry up and get good together quickly before arbitration makes the costs increase a ton. However, I am more than willing to personally chip in to the dream that TB and the O’s rule the East and NY and Boston miss the playoffs.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions

That would be awesome to see Tampa and Baltimore

beat out the evil empire and the sux.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions

TB is the best run team in mlb

if they can turn Burrell into Milton Bradley it would be a genius move and theyre a 90+ win team again.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Well I think Minnesota might be the best run team

but the Rays do have a ton of talent and I like Joe Maddon quite a bit.

Of course we’ll see how many of these talented players the Rays are able to keep in the coming years.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Minnesota?

They’ve been coasting off a weak division and one #1 overall draft pick for the last eight years. I don’t think their management is even average, much less the best in baseball.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Are you joking?

Their management isn’t even average? If you don’t think they’re the best that’s fine but when you say they aren’t even average you lose credibility.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

They have a mediocre roster and a mediocre farm system

and Joe Mauer.

The current GM wasn’t GM when they drafted Joe Mauer. The rest of the team is basically subpar. I really dislike most of their recent draft picks, Aaron Hicks aside. They traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young, which is a trade that looks like an utter disaster at this point.

What exactly are they supposed to have done that would make them a good management team?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Infusion of grit

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 10, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Uh they've won 5 division titles in the last 7 years

and I happen to think winning is how you judge a team not how many prospects they have.

How in the world are Justin Mourneau,Jason Kubel,and Michael Cuddyer subpar? They would all be the A’s best hitter.

I know Terry Ryan is no longer the GM but Bill Smith was his assistant and has done a good job since taking over in 2007.

I have to say I think DFA rips me better than you do at least he makes sense.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I said the team was subpar

not every individual player on it. Kubel, Morneau and Cuddyer are slightly above average players in the Ryan Sweeney range of value. Span’s season is almost certainly a fluke but is probably slightly above average. Scott Baker’s a solid #2 starter. Blackburn is a solid #3 starter.

Six slightly above-average players don’t make a good team. The only reason they’re even over .500 is one draft pick from eight years ago— and the only reason they’re in the playoffs is that one draft pick and an eyesore-inducingly rotten division.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Kubel,Morneau,Cuddyer and Mauer

are four batters and there are still only 9 batters in a game right? So the other 5 hitters would have to be the worst hitters ever for this team to be subpar.

By the way all four of those guys are better hitters than Ryan Swenny.

You are overselling your argument to say the Twins are bellow average as an organizaton because wins are all that matters and the Twins win a lot of games.

by sirbed on Oct 10, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

I know that they are better hitters than Ryan Sweeney

…

Finish the analysis.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I’d rather have Morneau than Sweeney.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

I told Randolph that Bill Russell would tell him to keep that ball in play and start the break.

RANDOLPH: "I know. But sometimes, you gotta let ‘em know."

(MT)

by kenntoe on Oct 11, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I heard a rumor that Ryan Sweeney is better than you think

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Thank God many GMs still feel the same way

Otherwise Oakland would be totally screwed.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Is their defense really that bad?

I’m not too familiar with their numbers from this year, but they’re much, much, much better hitters than Sweeney.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Morneau is probably better than Sweeney, although not by much

The other two are indeed awful fielders and also had career years at the plate. Sweeney is easily better than them.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

the funny thing is

yeah, they have alexi casilla, nick punto, brendan harris, delmon young, matt tolbert, etc all playing big roles. yeah, i’d call that pretty subpar.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Oct 10, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Carlos Gomez?

and his 350 PAs of .277 wOBA? That, my friend is also incredibly low.

In terms of Morneau vs. Sweeney, I was actually quite shocked to find Sweeney was nearly a full win (+0.8 to be exact) better than Morneau in about 50 fewer PAs this season. Morneau has very average defense at first base (a position on the far right of the defensive spectrum) while Sweeney provides elite defense on 3 much more important defensive positions (especially CF). On the offensive side of the equation, of course one would rather have Morneau’s bat than Sweeney’s. However, Sweeney provided basically average offensive production (very slightly better than average) while Morneau provided good offensive production. However, Morneau’s “good” offensive production was not nearly enough to overcome his average defense at a far right spectrum position in comparison to Sweeney’s average offense and elite defense at more valuable positions.

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 11, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Sweeney's d has to be regressed though.

Almost no one is a +20 defender. Sweeney is better than most think, but I don’t think we’ve got enough defensive info to say he’s better than Mourneau.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions

wouldnt Heyward weigh more to ATL?

I think him alone being the highest ceiling player in the minors would make people rank ATL’s system higher than it should be. I see us as being in the top 5 with TB, FLA, TEX, and ATL depending on personal preference. Im not sure there’s a standout here.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't see how Florida is better than Atlanta

Maybin’s gone. Dominguez and Morrison have done nothing this season. Skipworth’s stock is falling faster than Enron’s did. Sickels graded 3 pitching prospects at B last year but they’ve all had horrible seasons.

They had 11 B- or better prospects entering this season and only 3 of them still make that grade and haven’t graduated.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Hm

I might take San Diego’s system over Cleveland’s.

Cleveland has guys like Santana and Rondon, but after that their top guys are Chisenhall, Knapp, and Hagadone, all with big question marks.

I just love San Diego’s depth. Think they have the most underrated system in baseball.

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 10, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Knapp was a terrible centerpiece for the Lee Deal

Hurt A ball pitchers aren’t what you trade a CY Young winner for. I hate hate hated Clevelands deals this deadline.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Ya the Victor deal was good only by comparison to the Lee one.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

my fave hbt article recently was the "farm system value rankings"

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/farm-system-value-rankings-part-4/

I love this:

“Weaknesses: Lack a top-notch hitting prospect. Weak at third base.” Brett Wallace solves both problems, genius move getting him.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah but our pitching depth

has since been decimated.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

decimated is the wrong word

sure we lost a bunch this year but we still have YInoa, Ross, H-Rod, FDLS, Demel, Mortenson, Simmons, Leon, Marks, Capra, Carignan, Storey and Hernandez and they all have either pitched in the bigs or are about to. i bet there arent a lot of teams with that volume of players who are knocking on the doorfor their big league team. there are some pretty beastly prospects in that group and they all have a great chance be in the bigs at some point.

by PL78 on Oct 10, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

This is wrong

Ynoa Capra Marks and FDLS are all far from “have either pitched in the bigs or are about to” as you claim. and the rest besides Leon aren’t good prospects.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Ross

He’s atleast a good prospect, no?

by drink on Oct 10, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Kinda

Hes got horrific mechanics and his production was not good in AA though that is partially masked by a .256 BAPIP. He has potential though but he isn’t on that top prospect level that others are.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions

You're being harsh

Simmons has one bad year and he’s no longer a good prospect? Not at all? I’m not even a fan of his, but I wouldn’t go that far. Demel’s a relief prospect, sure, but he’s good. Ross, which is touched on below. I mean, they’re not super top prospects, no, but they’re pretty decent.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 11, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Depends on the definition of good.

Simmons isn’t a bad prospect but he isn’t a good one either.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Green again

I’ll vote for the guy who some claimed compared favorably to Tim Beckham when he was drafted and even looked like Longoria or Tulowitski. What’s that? He plays SS and has all 5 tools? He could be fast tracked to the majors? He’s only a year removed from being a better prospect than Ackley?

Not very statistical, but hey, it’s 4 in the morning.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 10, 2009 4:20 AM PDT reply actions

Green isn't a terrible choice but

questions about his real defense instead of his defensive celling and why he had such a mediocre year at USC. Also I would like to point out the Tim Beckham has not performed particularly well, and I think Gordon Beckham compares favorably to both.

I have Donaldson and Brown a head of Green and possibly Ynoa, though I haven’t made that final decision yet.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't say he had a mediocre year...

If G. Beckham was in our system and prospect eligible, I would put him at #1. I also think his major league floor is higher than Brown’s.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 10, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions

But is it really?

Brown will at least be a good defender in CF

Green might be forced to third and is having problems with his throws. If he cant hit hes got a lot of problems.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 10, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

He should be able to play CF, I don't think he'll necessarily be good there

Problems with throws/problems with errors is much better than problems with range or a bad arm. I think there is a better than 50% chance that Brown’s bat flames out.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 10, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd like to see James Simmons on the list soon.

He’s still relatively young, in just his second full year in the pros (well, finished with), and has posted excellent numbers until this year.
And even this year’s numbers are pretty good, with a 3.99 FIP. The main problem has been a ridiculously low LOB% at 61% and an uncharacteristically high BB rate. I would expect his walks to regress next year as he adjusts more to AAA (he probably wasn’t trusting his pitches because of the increased level of competition) which would once again make hima top pitching prospect.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 10, 2009 10:57 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

His only really plus attribute is command

Losing that makes him really, really fringy as a prospect. I’m willing to give him another year but 2009 could not possibly have gone any worse for him.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm guessing

His struggles were due to toying with a couple breaking balls this season, rather than just fastball-change.

I’m hoping so, at least.

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 10, 2009 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions

YNOA

Guy projects to be something we have never seen before. 18 years Old. 6 feet, 7 inches of Dominican Heritage. Arm of Gold. Billy Beane’s prized possession.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 10, 2009 11:08 AM PDT reply actions

Who got hurt before ever playing in a single game?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

… An 18-Year Old who…“projects to be something we have never seen before. 18 years Old. 6 feet, 7 inches of Dominican Heritage. Arm of Gold. Billy Beane’s prized possession.”

by Colorado Fan on Oct 10, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

UPSIDE is what prospects are all about – IMHO.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 10, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Except "projects to be something we have never seen before"

Seems apropos for what I’ve been saying. We haven’t seen him. He hasn’t pitched a real game yet. So that note (a year old now) could very well be the exact same thing whether he turns into God on the pitching mound in the majors or never plays a game. At what point do you walk away from that description without having any actually game experience to work with? Another year, two years, three? For me it was year. He didn’t play. Hell, he got hurt and was shut down. So far we’ve got fool’s gold. Now, that being said, I hope he lives up to the hype, but hype alone doesn’t make a top-ten prospect, or a top-50 IMO. There’s got to be some sort of in-game experience to work with.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions

going off the board...

my choice would be mickey storey

he already has several weapons that are mlb quality. His plus command of his sinking fastball and curveball might be the most lethal combo in the farm system. I wouldnt be surprised if he gets a chance to start in 09,sort of taking that duke path and pitches in several roles. Luckily for the A’s he had a terrible senior season and A’s were able to draft him lower than expected. Control and plus breaking stuff will go a long way,which are qualities lacking in a good amout of current A’s reliever prospects.

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 10, 2009 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

Seriously?

Storey could end up being Bailey year in and year out and still top out around 2 WAR. As awesome as Storey was this year, he’s a reliever and relief prospects are a dime a dozen (which is about how many good relief prospects Oakland has right now). I’m surprised you’d choose a relief prospect over a power hitting CF, a does-everything-well SS, three quality starting pitchers, etc. etc.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 10, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Good points

but let’s get this guy into the mix anyways…

by Mark H on Oct 11, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions

I assume he meant next onto the poll, but I agree with you that it is too early for Storey, even for the poll

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Here's my Ynoa/Green argument, bear with me:

I’m going to try to elaborate on my “lack of developed pessimism” argument in favor of Ynoa and Green from prospect thread #5.

Let’s say, hypothetically, that next spring Ynoa is fully healthy, the team decides to let him join Vancouver in June with the intention of him having an (almost) three-month season in a minor league rotation, getting the equivalent of a high schooler’s work load. But Ynoa looks so impressive that he gets promoted to Kane County after a month and continues to dominate there. He posts something like this, combined over 2 levels: 70 innings, 90 k’s, 15 walks, and he flashes all the reputed stuff and plus plus velocity.
Basically, his season would look very similar to Felix Hernandez’s age-17 season between A and A+ ball in 2003.

I’d consider Ynoa one of the 15 prospects in the game if he put up that line in 2010, despite TINSTAAPP and the injury nexus. The upside would be impossible to ignore.

Look what Casey Kelly has done for himself as a 19-year-old after a season of 95 innings, 16 walks, 74 k’s in A and AA ball in his first professional season.

My point is, we have been given no statistical reason to believe that Michael Enoa/Ynoa/Inoa is incapable of putting up that line next year.

The statlines of Donaldson/Desme/Brown et al have given us the opportunity to develop some skeptimism about their futures (ex: alarming strikeout rate, defensive question marks, etc. – each prospect from here out has their own potentially fatal wart).

But not Ynoa…yet. He could post that mythical King Felix/Casey Kelly line next year as a teenager.

Ditto with Green. Green has a small chance of replicating the season that Troy Tulowitzki produced in 2006 at AA Tulsa as a 21 year-old. If Green were to do that, he’d immediately vault to the top, too.

The fact that both those guys have yet to develop any pessimism from a minor league statline is intoxicating to me, now that we’re past the guys who are pretty much sure things.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 10, 2009 1:54 PM PDT reply actions

I understand the sentiment, but don't share it

It sounds a lot like shiny new toy syndrome.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 10, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

WHEN Ynoa puts up that line, I'd vote him #1 or at the very least not be against it.

But really, to suggest he will is ridiculous without having pitched yet. I certainly hope he does exactly what you suggest, but he could just as easily post 40 innings, 10 k’s, 50 walks and be hammered worse that Eveland at the MLB level and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 10, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

It's not that Ynoa will definitely be that good, it's that he has a reasonable chance to be.

The alternatives — Donaldson, Brown, Leon, Ross, Doolittle — have almost no chance to ever be Top 20 prospects. Green probably doesn’t either, but I could see him cracking the Top 50 at some point. Not so for the others.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions

What are you pointing to that suggests Ynoa has a "reasonable" chance?

A couple of scouts a year ago? Remember, scouts called Crosby (who was in the majors at the time) a possible/probable MVP candidate and he at least had stats for them to work with. Hell, they even at live in-game “I can sit there and actually watch him play against others” experience to work with. Ynoa, nadda. This is SNTS at it’s absolute worst.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Ynoa is Sid Finch

But until he’s 45 or cut by the A’s, some people will continue to fall for it. Hope I’m wrong.

by SeanR on Oct 11, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions

I would have gone with Schroedinger's cat

but yeah, that one works well too.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Corey Brown

See previous postings/rantings for reasoning :)

by eastbayexpat on Oct 10, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions

Who I'd like to see added to the next polls

in no particular order:
Stassi
Capra
Hornbeck
DLS

I would possibly vote for some of these guys over Ross, but not any of the others.
After those, we could get into the relievers. Hrod, Kilby, Demel, and Storey are all pretty close.
Sulentic is missing from the “upcoming” list.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 10, 2009 4:26 PM PDT reply actions

Hornbeck is a name I haven't even heard before.

Anyone care to fill me in? I don’t need a full scouting report, just a basic who-the-heck-is-he.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 10, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions

He's a lefty the A's took a flier on as a project player in the 2008 draft

Had mostly good numbers in college but absolutely zero stuff— he was high 70s to low 80s, total soft-tosser. They did something with him and now he’s high 80s touching 90— velocity’s still a slight minus, but he apparently has some exceptionally nasty offspeed pitches and has 204 strikeouts in 151 minor league innings, plus his control has improved now that he doesn’t have to dance around the corners of the strike zone all the time. His ceiling is something like “Rich Hill without the nervous breakdown.”

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions

a briefer take than that is

no one is particularly impressed with his stuff, but he put up great numbers this year. When I looked into it at some point in July, he was first among starting pitchers in all of the minors in K%; he may have finished #1, I don’t know…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 10, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm on board with Stassi, Hornbeck, and I can squint and see Faustino, but why Capra?

He looks like a guy with average stuff with worse results than Hornbeck. I’m not even sure he’s a whole lot better than Smalley. What am I missing?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 10, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions

What do you mean he "looks like a guy with average stuff"?

His changeup is, now that Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson have graduated, the best offspeed pitch in the A’s system.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Hornbeck has a better changeup

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess we'll find out in a couple of months

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

And his curve is now an above average pitch too

also with an average fastball has the makings of a strong #3.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Green, for me

Then Ynoa, then probably Brown.

I’m influenced by Goldstein (easily my favorite prospect analyst) on this. In a chat shortly after Green was drafted, he was asked to choose among Green, Weeks, and Cardenas. While he liked them all, he chose Green on the basis that there is a significant chance that he can stick at shortstop. I find this persuasive – his upside is a good-hitting shortstop, while the other guys’ upside is good-hitting player at a defensive position that is valuable but not as valuable as shortstop. Yes, he’s farther away, but that’s mitigated by the value implicit in the scouting evaluations, the draft position, and the signing bonus. I know he’s not up against Weeks and Cardenas here (I didn’t vote in those rounds, don’t know that I could have swallowed Green quite that high), but I’m more than happy going with upside at this point.

Ynoa next. Again influenced by Goldstein, who had him rated number 1 in the system coming into the year, notwithstanding that guys like Anderson and Cahill were not only highly talented but were already performing at a high level – he kept emphasizing that it was difficult to convey just how much scouts raved about Ynoa, even compared to other outstanding pitching prospects. Now, the injury and the lost development year are constitute a big setback for Ynoa, and the reason I’m more or less content to drop him back this far, but he still has monster potential.

I think the Ynoa detractors are falling prey to something of the same error that affects those who overvalue Desme: overvaluation of what we’ve seen recently (“seen” not so much with our eyes, but in the performance statistics). Desme put up gaudy power numbers combined with loads of steals and (better still) a spiffy success rate, and that grabs the imagination. It’s really hard to see those exciting numbers and still be reasonable about his chances of taking any large portion of them with him as he moves up the ladder. With Ynoa, the problem is the opposite: we haven’t seen him at all, and being out of our sight (having no performance to view) we tend forget his existence, or at least not take it seriously (as DMOAS does above where he says “until he actually steps on the field and plays, he really doesn’t exist” – not the first time someone has said this about Ynoa).

But he does exist. And there are pertinent facts about him, they just don’t take the form of pitching statistics. The younger a player is, the lower the level at which he’s played, the farther from the big leagues – the more the pertinent information about him comes from scouting evaluations rather than performance statistics. In Ynoa’s case, almost all the information about him comes from scouting information as opposed to statistics. Yes, that makes me uncomfortable too, but my discomfort with it isn’t going to make me discount the information.

There is one actual statistic that is significant here, though: the $4.25 million signing bonus, still the highest given to an international amateur player. That’s a bit of a proxy for the scouting reports, and helps quantify them. Nate Silver incorporated signing bonuses into PECOTA when he found that doing so made its projections more accurate – that is, if you took two players with identical numbers, ages, and body types, and one of them was drafted 10th overall and got a $3 million bonus and the other was a 7th-rounder exceeding expectations, the one with the big bonus did tend to go on to have the better career. It’s not infallible (of course), but there’s a reason guys are given the big money.

Finally, one test I like to use is, “Would I trade one guy for the other?” Upside comes hugely into play on a question like this – if a guy is described as the best 16-year old are since Josh Beckett, a “once-in-a generation talent” with even a bit of a chance of becoming Gibson or Clemens – would I trade that player for Josh Donaldson? No, I would not (and I like Josh Donaldson).

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

exactly the same for me - Green, Ynoa then Brown

by DeJay on Oct 11, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

me too

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I have problems with this

Yes, he’s farther away, but that’s mitigated by the value implicit in the scouting evaluations, the draft position, and the signing bonus. I know he’s not up against Weeks and Cardenas here (I didn’t vote in those rounds, don’t know that I could have swallowed Green quite that high), but I’m more than happy going with upside at this point.

All three of those players were 1round draft picks and got paid like them along with having good scouting reports. And if Green is so great why did he play poorly last year?

What you say about Silver, bonuses, Petcoa is true for American draftees but Im not sure it is for international signees. Top Dominican bonus babies almost never work out (I can’t think of one who turned into a star caliber player), its the lesser known players who make up the large number of stars with Dominican heritage. Josh Donaldson has a significantly better chance of giving your ML team production than a pitching prospect who is 17 hurt and never pitched in pro ball no matter how good his scouting reports are. One of the reason why college pitchers are a much safer bet than HS pitchers is because they have had the opportunity to blow out their arm before they get drafted, and those more likely to do so have availed themselves of that opportunity. Ynoa hasn’t even put high school level innings on his arm and it is already hurt. There is a GYNORMOUS chance that Ynoa will never make it to the MLB because of injury and that doesn’t even start to look possible problems with his performance.

In other words you should trade Ynoa for Donaldson every day of the week.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Come on. It Your last sentence is an overly strong statement

Especially when it follows an analysis that is really incomplete. Summarizing your last paragraph, you’re basically saying that Donaldson’s far greater likelihood of becoming a major leaguer than Ynoa makes Donaldson the much better asset to have.

How can you possibly say that definitively?

If Donaldson becomes a .5-1 WAR a year player, think about how fungible he is. He represents something the A’s can easily – easily! – buy on the free agent market, or even replace internally.

This is absolutely the type of player the A’s don’t need any more of. The team has .5-1 WAR relievers and corner outfielders coming out their ears. It’s the thing Beane and the A’s front office seems to do best – find unheralded players that other teams find worthless who in fact do have some nominal value.

But what the A’s do very poorly is produce star-level, 4-6 WAR players. Teams need one or more of those types of players to make the playoffs, and the A’s absolutely can’t sign them in free agency.

Ynoa is potentially one of those players, and Donaldson is not – not even in his rosiest projection.

If Ynoa has even a chance – in terms of WAR impact – of becoming King Felix, Miguel Cabrera, or Jesus Montero (all of whom were the highly touted bonus babies you speak of) – I wouldn’t trade him for Donaldson, no.

And certainly it’s more debatable than you imply in your last sentence.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 11, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

You place much much more value in WAR concentration than I do

Donaldson has a chance to be an allstar player. Look at my projection of him shows 4.3 WAR upside at either 3b or C (which is probably optimistic and should just be straight 4 WAR). But the thing is that Donaldson has a clear path to being a league average player, and not as an OFer of 1bman either. You have have have to balance upside with likelihood or reaching his upside or even a league average number. Ynoa’s likelihood is very low.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you're overstating the risks here.

I’d agree with MikeA below, the “gynormous” chance is probably more like 25-30%; you make it sound like 90%.

So much has been made of the riskiness of young pitchers that it seems likely that that risk is now being overstated. At one time the A’s wouldn’t touch high school pitchers, but that time has passed. The main reason for that is no doubt that recognition of the risk of younger pitchers has caused a general revaluation of high school pitchers versus college arms such that you can’t really get bargains with the latter any longer. But I think another reason is that both scouting and development of young pitchers has advanced strongly in recent years – statistical analysis of baseball has leaped forward, and why wouldn’t some of that new-found respect for analysis and just intelligence in general not be applied to scouting and development as well? I think we’ve come a long ways from the days when we were all so excited about Todd Van Poppel because of cave man scouting (Ugh! He throw hard!) Young pitchers are risky, but not quite the crap shoot they used to be. Ynoa is risky, but it’s not one-in-a-million stuff like hitting the Lotto, not by any means.

Furthermore, I would accept a high risk where there’s a high upside. You don’t want to use a strict actuarial-type analysis when looking at upside – a 33% chance of a 6-WAR player is worth much more than a 100% chance of a 2-WAR player, and I wouldn’t trade a 25% chance at an 8-WAR player for a 100% chance at even a 3.5 WAR player. The superstar radically increases your chances of cramming enough WAR into the other 24 slots of your roster that you can win the division, and of course the value of a pitching ace is magnified even more in the playoffs.

Damn, Angels just came back against the Red Sox and I not only missed it, I botched my attempt to back up on my DVR so now I can’t watch it at all. Oh well. Red Sox lose, WOOHOO! Angels win… FUCK.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I'd say there's probably a 25-30% chance that the injury he ALREADY has ends up leading to Tommy John Surgery

Now, that’s not a career death sentence, but it certainly would take the bloom off.

You don’t want to use a strict actuarial-type analysis when looking at upside – a 33% chance of a 6-WAR player is worth much more than a 100% chance of a 2-WAR player, and I wouldn’t trade a 25% chance at an 8-WAR player for a 100% chance at even a 3.5 WAR player.

This might be true in the abstract sense, but there is no such thing as a prospect with a 33% chance of being 6 WAR or a 25% chance of being 8 WAR. They don’t exist. Your example is completely fictional and bears no relationship to the actual outcome spreads of prospects.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't mind if he had TJ tomorrow to get it over with....

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course it was abstract

It was a mathematical point, not an assessment of any given player. I’m not saying Ynoa has a 33% chance at being a 6-WAR player. I’m making the point that you need to accept disproportionate risks with high-upside players because, while it’s hard to come up with good players, it’s really really hard to come up with superstars. And without a superstar or two on your roster, it’s much harder to win a championship. And the A’s can’t get superstars the way the Yankees do, by waiting until a player has defied all the risks and proven himself, and then just buying him. I think the non-linearity of value (three 2-WAR players are nowhere near the value of a 6-WAR player) sometimes gets lost in the number-crunching.

You don’t actually disagree with that, do you?

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think value is per se linear, but it's a lot closer to linear than you're giving it credit for

Like, it might be worth $3.5M for one win and then an extra .5M for each additional win or something. I think the slope is quite gentle.

It’s hard to make the playoffs without superstars, but it’s also hard to make the playoffs with gaping craters of suck on your roster.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Kind of like trying to win

With a 6-WAR player and two -3 WAR players compared to three 2-WAR players?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions

But its easier to fill gaping craters of suck

than it is to upgrade a roster of OK players without superstars.

But I know you know that, so that’s not really an area of disagreement. As for the degree of linearity of value, I’m persuadable, but I’d have to see research I haven’t seen yet.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions

the two places where I have a hard time agreeing with traditional saber-positions

have both come up on this thread:

1. Reliever value—they’re obviously not as valuable as starters, and leverage isn’t a function of a player, but I think throwing out leverage completely (as WAR does) and saying that tells you all you need to know about a reliever seems crazy to me. Though if you argue that because of the save rule, poor bullpen usage mostly cancels that out you might convince me, but I’d be very hard-pressed to be convinced that Mariano Rivera used properly isn’t worth more than Jack Hannahan (he of the consistent 2 WAR level).

2. Linearity of value—I get that few people say it’s completely linear, but it’s so much easier (and cheaper) to go from replacement to 2 WAR than 2 WAR to 4 WAR. Case in point, Seattle this got Jack Hannahan and Ryan Langerhans, two close to 2 WAR players, for basically nothing, and Russell Branyan (who, even if you didn’t see this year coming, you probably should have predicted to be close to 2 WAR), for close to nothing.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Good news!

You can find leveraged WAR at chone’s site. Rivera is 86th all time among pitchers (#1 among relievers not counting eck), which sounds about right… His WAR is maybe a tad more accurate for position players as well, and I’m pretty sure averaging the two would be better than just using the fangraphs number. Sadly, no 2009 left.

As for #2, I basically agree with PT. It’s not linear, but probably not a particularly steep slope. Hard to say… Sometimes when you try to get Hannahans and Langerhanses you get Browns and Giambis and Cabreras. It’s not as easy as you suggest.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions

And perusing his site gives me an idea....

Sign Bonds and unfurl a huge banner when he passes Ruth in the career WAR standings!

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Right, and you usually go a couple of WAR in the hole hoping that the Cabreras and Giambis turn it around

before bailing on them.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think this logic totally holds.

The point is valid, obviously, but there’s more to it. Giambi only cost $1.5 M, a lot less than the supposed value of a single WAR, and it was reasonable to expect him to put up 2 WAR. Even if you expected him to put up 1 WAR he would have been a significant bargain on the assumption that wins are of linear value. Of course it didn’t work out, but that doesn’t change the point. If the A’s would have been willing to pony up a real “2 WAR price,” they could have signed Adam Dunn, stuck him at DH and gotten a 3 WAR season out of him (check out Dunn’s Fangraphs page—he lost over 36 fielding runs!). Yes, sluggers were undervalued this offseason, but the point still holds that it was extremely cheap to find guys you’d expect to put up 2 WAR.

Cabrera again was very close to earning his salary this year (though not with the draft pick) if you’re going on the traditional linear scale, and that was in a near total collapse season. It was at least as reasonable to expect that Cabrera was going to put up a 3.5-4 WAR season (he’s coming off seasons of 3.5, 3.8, 2.7 and 3.6 WAR) as it was to expect this kind of collapse. The A’s weren’t playing for a 2 WAR player, they were playing for a 3 WAR player—and gave up a ton less than $13.5 M unless you give a ridiculous value to a 2nd rd draft pick.

2 WAR was more an 80th percentile projection than expected for Brown—he was coming off a sub-1 WAR season. And yet 1 WAR was a reasonable expectation, and he got signed for the minimum, when Fangraphs says that’s worth $4.5 M.

These examples don’t disprove the un-linearity of win value, they actually support it. In all three cases (admittedly anecdotal, but they’re the examples that were brought up), the player was paid significantly less than they were worth, if you’re considering what was reasonable to expect from them rather than looking backwards.

Of course you’re right that there’s opportunity cost wasted if you’re wrong, but if you were actually paying the cost of 2 marginal wins, you should get a player that you expect to give you MORE than 2 WAR, though of course that’s no guarantee against collapse, as Cabrera proved.

(Yes, I know this was all in a bad economy. Perhaps WAR is of less linear value in a recession?)

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Um Giambi cost $4m plus a $1.5m buy out minus prorated league min from when Col picked him up

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Giambi cost the A's $5.25M

Emil Brown (that is the Brown you’re referring to, right?) cost $1.5M.

I have no idea where you got these numbers from. Cot’s Baseball Contracts is the place to get salary information.

Finally, the price of one WAR on the free agent market last offseason was clearly depressed relative to what it has been. Pretty much every 2009 one-year contract was going to look like a bargain at the 1 WAR=$4.5M unless the player completely collapsed into worthlessness.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions

hmm sorry about the Giambi thing

don’t know where i was remembering it from. Maybe I was confusing the option and actual price. I should always look it up! I don’t think it changes the point though. Brown even was still being paid less than you’d expect. I did mention that of course the off season was a depressed one, but it was the low and mid level free agents that were depressed. I don’t think CC Sabathia’s or Teixeira’s contracts were at all lower than they would have been in any other year. Perhaps WAR is less linear when the market is in a recession. Of course there’s other factors involved in high-end contacts being worth more. I don’t know, maybe I’m totally wrong about this. I’ll think about it more tomorrow.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the "other factor" involved

is the fact that those contract offers were tendered by the Yankees, who not only have a tendency to give out extremely generous offers, but actually have a vested economic interest in doing so— because if they can drive up the cost of free agents (not to mention arbitration players) for everyone, they implicitly damage every other team’s ability to compete.

It’s the exact inverse of the way in which Standard Oil used to operate (when faced with a competitor, lower your prices so far that the competitor folds— then raise them sky-high again).

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, also my understanding is that those contracts have much lower flameout potential.

You’re much more likely to get burned overpaying an averagish player than overpaying a great one.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the chance that Ynoa never plays in the MLB is probably around 60%

The chance that he never amasses 5 WAR is probably 75%.

Your assessment of those chances is woefully inadequate.

The main reason for that is no doubt that recognition of the risk of younger pitchers has caused a general revaluation of high school pitchers versus college arms such that you can’t really get bargains with the latter any longer. But I think another reason is that both scouting and development of young pitchers has advanced strongly in recent years – statistical analysis of baseball has leaped forward, and why wouldn’t some of that new-found respect for analysis and just intelligence in general not be applied to scouting and development as well? I think we’ve come a long ways from the days when we were all so excited about Todd Van Poppel because of cave man scouting (Ugh! He throw hard!) Young pitchers are risky, but not quite the crap shoot they used to be. Ynoa is risky, but it’s not one-in-a-million stuff like hitting the Lotto, not by any means.

The reason why the A’s have moved toward HS pitchers is because for years collegiate pitchers were undervalued as other teams recognized this they became more appropriately valued. Which also has seen a shift away from HS pitchers making good HS pitchers more availible.

The thing is the chance that even the best prospect becomes a 8 WAR is 1%.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

OK...

The reason why the A’s have moved toward HS pitchers is because for years collegiate pitchers were undervalued as other teams recognized this they became more appropriately valued. Which also has seen a shift away from HS pitchers making good HS pitchers more availible.

Which is why I cited exactly that reason:

The main reason for that is no doubt that recognition of the risk of younger pitchers has caused a general revaluation of high school pitchers versus college arms such that you can’t really get bargains with the latter any longer.

You must have read that – hell, you quoted it – so I’m puzzled why you recite the same reason back to me as if it were some sort of refutation. I also cited another reason, which is that young pitchers are getting less risky than they used to be. Teams are doing a vastly better job of keeping young pitchers healthy than they used to do, back in the days when they just threw them out there without a thought in the world about workloads, pitch counts, the injury nexus, the Verducci effect, and all the rest of the contemporary arsenal. Part of the reason that the high school pitchers have been revalued vis-a-vis college pitchers is that teams have corrected for their previous undervaluation of the latter, but part of it is that teams have learned to do a better job of leading the kiddies through the minefield that stands between them and The Show.

I can understand that if you think he’s got a 60% chance of never smelling that cup of coffee, and an almost negligible chance of actual stardom, you wouldn’t rate him very high. I like his odds better, but I can only offer the above qualitative argument for my position, which hardly amounts to proof. But let’s both hope I can write a gloating I-told-you-so post a few years down the road! (Not that I actually am telling you so, because I’m not predicting stardom, just allowing for its reasonably significant possibility, but I can fudge that point a bit if it comes to pass.)

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions

In the spirit of dmos' quantum mechanics posts...

Let’s hope that many worlds is true, and that we’ll wind up in one of the worlds where Ynoa kicks ass.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll drink to that

In fact, I’m already drinking to that…

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Then you shouldn't have posited that it was improved scouting as well

All prospects have crappy chances. Teen Pitchers with arm problems that have never even throw a competitive pitch have terrible chances. Now the chances that if he makes it to the big leagues and is a good player are higher than some other prospects.

Furthermore, we can both be right and we will never know. If Ynoa becomes good he just hit whatever percentage either of us gave him. That doesn’t mean that the person who thinks its a small chance was wrong. If Ynoa busts that doesn’t mean I was right either.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't quite understand your title line or your first paragraph

The second paragraph, I agree with. The outcome will not confirm the correctness of anybody’s set of probabilities, in the same way that if it rains tomorrow it doesn’t confirm the correctness of a prediction of 80% chance of rain (the “real” chance of rain could have been 5%, but that’s the chance that came to pass).

For the record, I’d prefer that this not be primarily about who’s right and who’s wrong. I dislike being wrong, and I certainly dislike admitting being wrong, but I try to fight against it mattering so much to me. If I’m too invested in being right I’m not evaluating the arguments properly and it sort of undermines the integrity of the whole thing.

I don’t know that I’m all that successful in this endeavor. It ain’t easy.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I think DFA is saying that because you've already offered on perfectly good explanation

of why the A’s started drafting high school pitchers again, there’s no reason to assume that it’s also because of improved scouting—though my guess is that it has improved, at least marginally.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Why would it have to be one reason only?

Changes in complex systems do not typically happen for one reason and one reason only.

Teams are vastly more conscious of their pitching prospects’ health and ultimate success being controllable variables than was once the case. It would be irrational if the A’s didn’t factor that into the weighting of HS vs college.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions

True, but adding the second explanation is really just speculation

unless you’ve seen an interview that agrees with you.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions

That was my point w/r to being right and wrong.

neither of us will know anyway so who cares who is “right”, unless you want to clone a billion Ynoas and run a probability simulation.

PS. Im totally down for that.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions

"so who cares who is 'right'"

Well, we do, notwithstanding, right? :-)

And I am so with you on the billion Ynoa project. With that many Ynoas, we couldn’t help but come up with a few Walter Johnsons, a few Lefty Groves and Sandy Koufaxes, several Pedros and one or two honest-to-God Sydd Finches. If the A’s can’t win it all with that rotation, I’m giving the whole damn thing up.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I emphatically dispute that anyone is as good at recognizing upside as you intimate

There were 10 6+ WAR position players this season. Among those 10 were Ben Zobrist, Albert Pujols, and Chase Utley (all players whose “upside” was considered to be average at best), Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, Derek Jeter, Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez (picked so early in the draft that the A’s haven’t had a pick that high in over a decade), Prince Fielder (10th pick; this year is the A’s first shot at a pick that high since 1999) and Hanley Ramirez.

The only one of these guys you could remotely claim is some kind of “long shot high upside” player made good is Hanley Ramirez. I think it might actually be MORE likely that a player with “average” skills improves enough to be elite than that one of those long-shot tools types does. The odds are, at least, comparable.

I don’t think 6+ WAR players are ever obtainable unless you get a super-high draft pick or get lucky.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Right, but shouldn't Ynoa be considered a super-high draft pick?

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

Really the only way to steal such a pick when your management is smart enough that you go a decade and counting without any single digit picks.

I’ll grant DFA’s point that high-bonus Dominican picks haven’t returned the results that the very highest US draft choices have done, but (a) the A’s surely know that as well and would have factored in that additional risk factor, and (b) Ynoa is supposedly a level above the rest, and IIRC the consensus was that he’d be a #1 or #2 if available in the draft.

Of course, even if he is that super-high draft choice, he might be our BJ Upton or Alex Gordon rather than our Evan Longoria. Nice enough, but not going to lift the team on his shoulders and carry them to a championship.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions

He might be a Matt Bush or Luke Hovachar too.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Please be civil and knock off the profanity

(You said “Bush”)

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Nah

He was paid like a mid-first rounder once you account for the fact that he was a free agent.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions

I

agree with Danny…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't even understand what his position was in those arguments

That Ynoa signed at some vast discount with the A’s? (He didn’t. Even the highest reported offer he got wasn’t on par with what a standard #1 overall draft pick gets, and those guys are working from a vastly more disadvantaged position.)

That Latin prospects are systematically undervalued? (If this is true, I’ve never seen any real evidence of it, and surely whatever impact there is is minimized when you’re talking about elite prospects whose talent is not replaceable.)

That the draft does nothing to repress signing bonuses? (This is just obviously bunkum. Cuban free agents get paid money that most similarly talented American draftees only dream of.)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 7:38 PM PDT up reply actions

But that's because he was so far away from the majors,

not because he had the talent of a mid-first rounder. Ynoa obviously has the lowest floor of anyone being seriously discussed right now, but I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think he has a 6 WAR ceiling. If a scout can even talk about a 16 year old pitcher being drafted #1 with a straight face, the kid must have some serious upside.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions

When people say a player is far away from the majors

they aren’t really referring to number of years involved in getting there. A win in 2015 is basically worth as much as a win in 2010, except for some minor gains from reinvestment of increased gate receipts (and the A’s never draw any fans anyway, so they have even less reason to discount future wins). They’re referring to the number of things that can go wrong on the way there.

It would be insane for GMs not to account for the increased risk of things going wrong on the way to the majors. And they are not insane, so they do so, by paying less money to Latin American prospects than to more developed American prospects.

“Talent” as some kind of abstract concept is not worth anything to a baseball team. I have no idea what “talent” Ynoa had, but he had the value of a mid-first rounder.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Right, I understand that (that it's not a question of time, but flameout).

Of course they should account for the risk, but since a 16 yr old pitcher automatically has such an enormous amount of risk, that scouts were touting him as the equivalent of a top-ten pick, and possibly as one of the top two picks, gives you the sense that he must have incredible tools. Depending on your relative valuation of upside and floor, you’re going to rank him in very different spots, but I still don’t see why it’s unreasonable to think he has a 6 WAR ceiling.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 11, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions

OK

He was paid like a mid-first rounder with a 6 WAR ceiling.

I’m not sure how that changes anything. Mid-first rounders don’t get paid differently depending on what their ceiling is. If their predicted average value was actually higher, they’d (on the whole— obviously GMs can blow it on any one particular guy) get drafted higher, or in the case of free agents, be paid more.

I agree that Ynoa has incredible tools, or at least that he has what projects to be incredible tools in a few years. Part of what makes it nigh-impossible for 16-year-olds to ever be good enough to ever be a #1-overall-type talent is that projecting the physical development of boys who, in many cases, haven’t even finished growing taller yet is an incredibly inexact science.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Have there been any reports about Ynoa since he became the SNT that people are salivating at?

Yeah, a lot of people talked of Ynoa. And for me, all he has to do is step on the mound and pitch in a live game and have some semblance of the success those scouts have purported. I’ve never heard of a player never having actually played the game suddenly being a star even if he did have an amazing arm. Pitching is a lot more than just throwing the ball. People can talk about him all they want but without what is behind the stats (i.e. actually playing in a game that scouts can actually watch) there’s no accuracy behind anything they say. He’s Schroedinger’s cat at this point. And at this point I’d trade nearly anyone in the system for him.

As for Green, while I may disagree and put him behind Cardenas, I can totally understand you or anyone else putting Green above the others. Nothing wrong with seeing his college numbers and, yes, scouting reports and believing differently. Hell, I could conceivably see being convinced of it myself. There’s a base for both the stats and the reports to go off. Actual in-game action/reaction.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I assume that with this sentence:

And at this point I’d trade nearly anyone in the system for him.

… you actually meant the opposite, that you would trade him for nearly anyone in the system? Given what appears to be your position, I can’t make sense out of it the way you wrote it.

Either way, your position seems awfully extreme; a bit of hyperbole perhaps? He hasn’t given the scouts anything new to watch this season, which is pretty emphatically a negative; however, it doesn’t mean the previous reports have evaporated into thin air. He isn’t going in for rotator cuff surgery, or something that puts an emphatic kibosh on his chances for stardom. He’s not quite as good a prospect as he was when we signed him. It ain’t always a linear progression from signing to superstardom. You’d trade him for “almost anyone in the system”? Really?

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes to both counts

Just like I don’t actually think he doesn’t exist. He definitely exists and I’m just as excited about his potential as the next fan, so the hyperbole accusation is entirely fair. But going to your post above, I would take a guaranteed replacement level prospect with 100% chance of making the majors over a guaranteed infinite WAR player with a literal 0% percent chance of ever playing the majors. (this isn’t Ynoa, just in the hypothetical sense). I think your non-linear evaluation of Potential vs. Likelihood of reaching Potential is also accurate, what tends to lending to differing opinions is how we all balance them.

So last year, being shiny and new, Ynoa, was a top-10 prospect in my mind based on where he could go and the likelihood he’d reach it. I was assuming he’d actually play (at least a little bit) in live games this year. A year removed from not having played, the problem I have is:
a) I don’t know what his actual potential is anymore since there are no stats and no current scouting reports on him because he hasn’t played
b) I don’t know what his likelihood of reaching this unknown potential is because of “a”.
There are plenty of prospects every year that explode on both measures and fizzle on both measurements every year (and many that stay the same), but without anything to base it on, Ynoa is stale which greatly detracts from his current value and I can’t see how anyone could rate him, let alone rate him in the top-10/top-25.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

First off, the "hyperbole" bit

wasn’t meant as an “accusation” – it was a question. Hyperbole is a perfectly legitimate rhetorical device, not a crime. But it is important to know whether your interlocutor is using hyperbole or means his words literally.

I just don’t get why you would so thoroughly discount him on one season’s non-performance. A year ago he was by some accounts the #1 prospect in a very strong system. You don’t topple from that to being just some bum without either sucking horribly or suffering a catastrophic injury. He hasn’t sucked (not playing is still better than pulling a Shooter Hunt and piling up affirmative evidence that you’re not going to cut it) and so far as we know (a qualification that gives me some trepidation) he hasn’t suffered a catastrophic injury. Being really young has its drawbacks, but it also has this advantage – it’s nowhere near fish-or-cut-bait time for Ynoa. His ceiling is undiminished, although this season has obvioulsy not been helpful to his chances of reaching it.

You’re right, there are no current stats or current scouting reports to go on. But the “stale” reports to which you allude were long-term projections, not things that utterly evaporate with a season of no new info. Sometimes you have to have faith that the tree that falls in the forest when you weren’t around to hear it still makes a noise.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions

The reason I discount (though to say thoroughly wouldn't be entirely accurate)

is that all the projections (particularly scouting based, but any projection really) requires at some point, the player to do something to back it up. It just leads me back to the question earlier I was asking, at what point (how many years does it take) do those projections lose their meaning? For me, it was a year. If he had more than just glowing scouting reports to go off of, I’d be less inclined to toss aside an empty season. I don’t throw out DLS, for instance, because there’s a track record to work off of, even though the TJ surgery does lower his value. But as I’ve said before, all it’ll take for me to flip on this is for him to play in live games (Winter League included) with some semblance of success. I just need something real and legitimate to work off of now.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions

I understand the skepticism and the frustration

But I do think that if you’d be willing to trade Ynoa for, say, Matt Sulentic or maybe Andrew Carignan (isn’t that implicit in saying you can’t see rating him at all much less in the top 25?), but a few Winter League games could flip your views, your evaluation is probably a bit too volatile and dependent on recent events.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions

It's definitely volatile

but it’s more dependent on having a sample to work with, even if it suffers from small sample size. The reason I’d be willing to trade Ynoa for those (or at least “say” I would) is based on having no sample size. Personally, I probably wouldn’t trade him at all until I had a sample size, but it’s less about valuing him more than player(s) X, so much as not being able to assess his true value. That’s where the volatility comes in because based on the results of actually playing, I’m more than willing to see him anywhere between #1 or #101 dependent on those results. But because he could be anywhere between makes it impossible for me to willingly rate him at all.

Take an extreme example. Carter is #1 right now (which I agree with). But let’s say tomorrow we find out he has TJS. It doesn’t mean he drops out of the top 10, but he probably loses his #1 status. The reason he doesn’t fall off the charts is his track record, having a history. If Ynoa has TJS tomorrow, without having pitched in a single game, that drops any willingness I may have had to even consider him top 10 (in a hypothetical world) to much, much further down the charts because he has no history.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Ynoa is certainly brutally tough to rate

Precisely because of the extreme range of possible outcomes and the dearth of information.

But it seems like a little bit of a cop-out to be unwilling to rate him at all. I mean, he actually is in the organization – the A’s have to assess his worth somehow, they can’t opt out of that. I suspect they’ll take the same conservative approach you take when you say “I probably wouldn’t trade him at all until I had a sample size”. No one wants to be the one who wound up trading Bob Gibson for Josh Donaldson – even if Josh Donaldson turns out to be Terry Steinbach.

Now I’m going to shut up before I start persuading myself we actually have Bob Gibson and Terry Steinbach in our system…

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I could accept that it's a cop out

And I’m sure, as an organization, the A’s have a value placed on him. But if I’m simply rating prospects, I’ll choose a player I can rate/evaluate over a player I can’t any day of the week. And if that’s the case, Ynoa becomes unlisted/unrated. Call it an “Incomplete” in a grading system. Can’t give the guy an F, but certainly can’t give him an A. He just needs to complete the class before a grade can be given.

I really hope we don’t have Gibson or Steinbach. They’re both too damn old to play anymore.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

If your evaluation of a player will or could change dramatically based on a small sample of additional play,

then you are ipso facto doing it wrong.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Fair enough

But would you not say evaluating a player with no sample is equally wrong? My main point really is, with no sample, I can’t evaluate at all. Once he has one, I, at the very least, have something to evaluate on. A small sample by itself is ugly to base anything on, but it’s something and it’s worlds better than nothing. And it would be in constant flux until the sample builds itself up to a level you can give a real assessment on. A crude analogy would be like stepping on the scale. The weight leaps up and down insanely at first while it waits until you gain balance and settle down at which point it reaches a point where it can be accurate. But if the scale jumps as high as 200 lbs at one extreme and down to 50 lbs on the other, you at least have a range to start working with, albeit, not one you can inherently trust.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 11, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions

A small sample is not worlds better than nothing

It’s minimally (if at all) better than nothing. Usually all it does is confuse the issue, like when we wrote off Sean Doolittle as garbage based on like 100 bad at-bats at the end of an 8-month season.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 11, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Much more succinct than the way I put it.

by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions

The "gynormous" chance is probably like 25-30%

which is similar to the chance that Donaldson puts up less than 5 WAR for his career. You wanted to draft the injured Scheppers and HS pitcher Matzek because the upside sparkled in your eyes… I would definitely not trade Ynoa for Donaldson.

Green did not play poorly last year… He played poorly relative to being the expected #2 pick going into the season…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions

Dude made a ton of errors and when you account for the metal bat he did not hit well.

Scheppers could pitch in the ML rotation in a year and had just gotten a clean bill of health from Yocum and was hitting 98 on the gun. Matzek has clean motions and I have no problem drafting HS pitchers if the upside is high enough. HS and hurt would be too much though.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 11, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

If you're going to say he didn't hit well, then all but like 3 guys in college didn't hit well...

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

some odds

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/the_draft_and_w.php

pick (HS pitcher)(career):
>1 WAR: 64%
>10: 40%
>30: 6%
>50: 4%
pick:
>1: 29%
>10: 11.6%
>30: 1.7%
>50: 0.5%
Ynoa initially was somewhere between the two, closer to #1. Considered to have #1 talent, once in a generation, etc., would have gone #1 in many years. But greater risk given that he was younger than HS draftees. And he comes down another few notches due to the injury, so his >1 odds are probably a good bit below the 64%. Presumably, though, if you compare those two sets of odds above, injury flameouts should be about the same for #1s and #10s, so the big difference you see is predominantly based on talent. As long as Ynoa can throw the ball, he should have plus plus velocity at least, and so a talent-based flameout is a significant but probably not huge risk, and the upside odds are probably not too different.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 11, 2009 3:18 PM PDT reply actions

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
USC	College	54	.374	.441	.569	4	32	16	46	19
STO (oak)	A+	4	.316	.350	.368	0	3	1	2	1

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
MID (oak)	AA	66	.268	.349	.488	9	43	5	46	20

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
MID (oak)	AA	124	.270	.379	.415	9	91	7	67	37

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	33	2-3	3.51	74.1	71	28	63	1	1.33

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	28	.267	.364	.448	4	14	0	17	5

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Anthony Capra, SP	Anthony Recker, C	Shane Peterson, OF	Alex Valdez
Dustin Coleman, SS	Travis Banwart, SP	Matt Spencer, OF	Gregorio Petit, SS
Max Stassi, C	Graham Godfrey, SP	Robin Rosario, OF	Tommy Everidge, 1B
Clayton Mortensen, SP	Ronny Morla, SP	Wilfredo Solano	Joel Galarraga, C
Nino Leyja, 2B	Paul Smyth	Conner Crumbliss	Pedro Figueroade, SP
Rashun Dixon, CF	Julio Ramos	Daniel Straily	Fautino De Los Santos, SP
James Simmons, SP	Ian Krol, SP	Yusuf Carter	Ryan Ortiz, SP
Brett Hunter, SP	Anthony Huttenlocker	Carlos Hernandez, SP	Ben Hornbeck, SP
Brad Kilby, SP	Reynaldo Mateo	Tyler Ladendorff	Shawn Haviland, SP
Mickey Storey, SP	Chris Mederos	Jon Meloan	Josh Horton, SS
Henry Rodriguez, RP	Conner Hoehn	Corey Wimberly, UTL	Dan Thomas
Sam Demel, RP	Josh Leyland, C	Justin Souza	Andrew Carignan, RP
Jermaine Mitchell, CF	Jared Lansford, RP	Justin Marks	Jason Christian, 3B

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	106	.297	.354	.460	15	47	1	54	21
Mem (stl)	AAA	62	.293	.346	.423	6	19	0	22	11
SPR (stl)	AA	32	.281	.403	.437	5	16	0	22	5

Network Bar

Athletics Nation -

2010 Community Prospect List - #6

Who is the A's #6 Prospect?

Corey Brown, CF

Grant Greeen, SS

Michael Ynoa, SP

Arnold Leon, SP

Tyson Ross, SP

Josh Donaldson, C

Sean Doolittle, OF/1B

Do you like this story?

Comments