2010 Community Prospect List - #5
by Zonis on Oct 7, 2009 10:35 PM PDT
Email
PrintI would just like to point out that I am very happy with the turn out, as well as the cases for players on the list thus far, and look forward to more of it in the future, especially as we get lower with lesser known prospects.
Poll is going to dwindle due to lack of suggestion for players to be added. Keep suggesting! I might have the poll fall back down to 5.
Want to look back at past votes? The link for the poll that each player has won is next to their name along with the percentage of the vote that they won at time of call.
Dont forget to list players in comments that you believe should be added to the poll soon!
The Minor League season has ended, and Winter Leagues are still a ways away. So what do we have left to do but tally up our Minor League experiences and take a look at the state of the A's Minor League System.
If you want to view Last Year's list, check here.
The qualifications to be voted onto the list are simple. The player in question must be eligible to win a Rookie of the Year Award for the 2010 season-that is, he must be a rookie to start the 2010 season. Well, not quite. To make it simpler and not have to count days on the active roster, we will be going with 130 AB or 50 Innings Pitched.
Lots of players have graduated from last years list, such as Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro and Outman to name a few. Several others have upped their prospect value while others have fallen. Its our job to figure out where they stand.
The list will probably go on to 50 again like last time, though it really depends on how far AN wants to take it.
So argue out which player you believe deserves the spot for the list. Bring out the stats, the scouting reports, and the pictures (I'm looking at you flashfire!).
If you think you know a prospect well enough, write a scouting report with your supporting stats and I will put it into the thread for the next vote, either for the player's Bio after he wins, or for his bio for voting.
If you think a player deserves mention, or should be put on the next prospect vote list, or prospects that should be kept track of, put them in the comments (and preferably mark them clearly) and they will get consideration. I expect the top of the list, as with last year, to go rather smoothly for the first few players, but it gets more difficult as it goes on, and its up to you to bring prospects to light so that we can all see them. Just ask Anthony Capra, last year's #46 (and this years much higher) how important that is.
Votes will last a few days per round, or until a clear winner has emerged by landslide.
Age is entering the 2009 Season.
Prospects up for Vote:
Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B USC College 54 .374 .441 .569 4 32 16 46 19 STO (oak) A+ 4 .316 .350 .368 0 3 1 2 1
Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - Video
OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B STO (oak) A+ 62 .304 .398 .656 20 51 16 49 12 KAN (oak) A 69 .274 .334 .490 11 38 24 49 19
Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - Video
Did not play, 60 Day Disabled List.
Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B MID (oak) AA 66 .268 .349 .488 9 43 5 46 20
Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - Video
DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B MID (oak) AA 124 .270 .379 .415 9 91 7 67 37
Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 33 2-3 3.51 74.1 71 28 63 1 1.33
Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - Cal Sports Profile Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 9 5-4 3.96 50 40 20 31 0 1.20 STO (oak) A+ 18 5-6 4.17 86.1 78 33 82 0 1.29
Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 28 .267 .364 .448 4 14 0 17 5
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 13 .259 .293 .519 4 14 0 7 2 MID (oak) AA 125 .337 .435 .576 24 101 13 108 41
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 106 .297 .354 .460 15 47 1 54 21 Mem (stl) AAA 62 .293 .346 .423 6 19 0 22 11 SPR (stl) AA 32 .281 .403 .437 5 16 0 22 5
3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 51 .251 .317 .372 1 24 3 23 15 MID (oak) AA 79 .326 .392 .446 3 55 5 56 26
4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B MID (oak) AA 30 .238 .303 .343 2 13 4 10 5 STO (oak) A+ 50 .299 .385 .468 7 31 5 29 9
Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Anthony Capra, SP
Dustin Coleman, SS
Max Stassi, C
Clayton Mortensen, SP
Nino Leyja, 2B
Rashun Dixon, CF
James Simmons, SP
Brett Hunter, SP
Brad Kilby, SP
Mickey Storey, SP
Henry Rodriguez, RP
Sam Demel, RP
Shane Peterson, OF
Matt Spencer, OF
If you have a prospect you want to suggest, from this list or not on it, speak up in comments!
242 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I endorse this statement
Singed,
DFA
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Ynoa again.
Henry Rodriguez from the other list.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Throw in Mickey Storey
I’m going to start waving the flag for this guy.
23 yrs old
51 IP
71 K/8 bb/27 hits for a 0.68 WHIP and 12.4 k/9
1.22 era
Need any more?
No starts this year but supposedly in consideration for a chance in the Cats rotation. Not sure what he’s doing for Fall/Winter.
Can you link us to somewhere says he's being turned (back) into a starter?
That would definitely impact his value (positively) if it was the case.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Just Grover referring to a comment by Keith Lieppman
in some interview or somesuch. He didn’t provide a link but I’ll trust Grover’s memory…
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2009/9/15/1031277/minor-league-update-9-15-2009-a
Got it
http://athletics.scout.com/2/897583.html
2009 In Review: Q&A With Keith Lieppman, P. 2
OC: It looks like he has a 25-30 MPH spread between his curveball and his fastball. That’s a pretty unusual spread right?
KL: Yeah, you try to not make him look like somebody, but he is kind of like a Justin Duchscherer-type pitcher with that kind of a good breaking ball and maybe a little more velocity than Duke. Storey has that same kind of mentality on the mound. He is a competitor on the mound. He isn’t afraid. He stands right in there. Those combinations really bode well. This kid could probably start, as well. In high school and college, before he got hurt, I think he was one of the top starters in the country.
Nothing in that quote suggesting that he's actually being converted, though
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I would endorse Capra as the next player to be added to the list.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 11:31 PM PDT reply actions
+1
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 8, 2009 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I voted for Corey Brown
There is only one wrong answer on this poll, however.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Desme?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Some days I think it's not that crazy,
and then on some days like these I get really sad that Desme’s going to be above Green. Ah, c’est la vie.
Green just gives me a bad feeling
I don’t know why but after looking at his season, I got really worried around the draft time. I posted the star wars pic of when Luke Skywalker says that, when the Millennium Falcon approaches the Death Star in one of the other threads because it is that kind of feeling.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
But he wound up blowing up the Death Star, so you should vote for Green
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Yeah but Alderaan got blown up in the process
thats gotta be like Croz running into ellis and shreading his shoulder right?
For me its Donaldson then Green (I think the likelihood that I am wrong and others are right is high enough to put him after Donaldson) then Brown, then some more thinking about things.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
and would blowing up the Death Star a second time be worth it
if you had to deal with those god-damned Ewoks?
Fuck the ewoks
they were suppose do be wookies god damn it!
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 3:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I was sure the wrong answer would be
whichever guy has “RP” next to his name. But then I looked and there aren’t any.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Thats what I did.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
The wrong answer is the one who is strictly worse than another player on the same poll.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Donaldson for me
It’ll be tight with Desme.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Grant Green
Perhaps it is shiny new toy syndrome but a SS with a strong college track record who was considered a possibility to go #2 overall and has a chance to stick there is pretty exciting for me.
That's where I went too.
Desme voters should ask themselves whether he really has more upside than Green (I don’t think he does). And I don’t think Green is less likely to succeed either.
Neither the Donaldson nor Desme arguments quite convinced me,
so I’m going with my gut and voting Corey Brown now.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Can someone tell me about Pedro Figueroa?
On the Rule 5 thread he was mentioned as a guy worth protecting, and yet I haven’t heard even a peep about him here. What gives?
Also, is Gregorio Petit still eligible as a “prospect”? Not that I plan to vote for him any time soon. Just curious.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
According to baseball america....
they have Figueroa ranked as the 7th best prospect in the California League. Desme is ranked as the 16th best prospect.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 8, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
a bit of discussion about him
in this thread
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Whether he's eligible or not...Petit is not a prospect
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 8, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Corey Brown...again
The Desme argument is premised too much on him repeating a fabulous A+ season, which seems to be somewhat difficult for me to believe.
The Donaldson argument is premised too much on old scouting reports (useful but their utility is diminishing).
Ynoa, I would like to actually see pitch before I make any determinations.
I think, for me, it came down to doolittle/brown/leon. I think Corey Brown has the best combination of upside/likelihood of reaching that upside of any of them.
Desme
I don’t get all the love for a guy who was too old to be in A ball, but it’s been beaten to death already so I’ll leave it alone. I’ve just resigned myself to the fact that Desme and Donaldson are going way higher than I’d rank them, and just accepting it.
Desme
STO (oak) A+.304 .398 .656
KAN (oak) A .274 .334 .490
Not a bad 1st (Healthy) Full-Season of Pro Baseball, eh?. I understand he’s old for the levels he played at this year, but to take almost 2 full years away from the game and put up the numbers he did this year???…. pretty crazy if you ask me. Plus, I was one of the first on AN to endorse Desme – 1/9/2008
The real issue is not the fact that he put up great numbers
The real issue is how meaningful those numbers are. To wit, he put up those numbers in A+ in a power inflating stadium with horrible strike out rates and really bad walk rates.
There’s talent there, but it’s hard to figure out whether it can translate effectively to the higher levels of the minors and eventually the majors. There’s no telling how the guy will perform against higher levels of competition, let alone a properly placed breaking ball. The guy has earned a spot in AA, but it’s hard for me to make any sort of projection otherwise.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nicely put.
You know how some players mash in AAA but can’t even make contact in the majors? Desme could be a high-A warrior. When a player is that low in the minors, some stats are more telling: K rate, BB rate, and so on. The triple slash stats are fantastic, but there’s a possibility they all came off of mediocre high-A fastballs. If he even begins to approach those ridiculously gaudy triple slash numbers in AA, his prospect status should shoot up.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
And its the Cal League.... HEY O
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Everyone is saying Desme must prove himself at higher levels, but
Ynoa is a top prospect without even playing in Rookie League. wow.
A year from now, we can all have 20/20 hindsight.
Im not voting for either of them
but if you are only about upside Ynoa has more.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Kane County
That is a tough park to hit for high .SLG – The Midwest is tough overall, no?… Did Desme have the highest SLG in MWL? (Don’t have time to look). I think Desme will make a pretty smooth transition to AA/AAA next season. But who knows??? That’s why they call ’em prospects.
The midwest league is for 19-21 yos
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
To be fair,
his BB rate in the Cal league was actually pretty good, at 12.7%.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
My skepticism is derived
primarily from difference in the level of competition at A+ and AA. It factors heavily into my favoring of Corey Brown.
The two levels are vastly different, both in the level of competition and the specific ways that the levels are used.
A+ tends to be much more of an instructional league where players are sent to work out specific issues, particularly pitching related issues like control.
AA is a much denser level in terms of talent, particularly since many top prospects spend a good deal of time here as opposed to partial seasons in A and A+.
The competition at AA is much tougher than the competition at A+ by a significant factor. It’s why it’s not uncommon to see pitching callups from AA, particularly among pitchers. The talent is better, the pitchers are significantly more advanced, and there is the distinct chance that a A+ star like Grant Desme will have to spend a full season at AA to adjust to the improvement in pitching.
I’m going to make a stand here, it is unreasonable to expect that Grant Desme will go to the next level and perform largely like he has in Single A. The odds are severely against it.
….
I like italics.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd
There should be huge deference to players at AA or above vis a vis players below AA.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This is why I like Leon so much
Given how well he did at such a young age. I mean I know the scouting reports aren’t hugely favorable, but that is damned, damned hard to do.
After that, I’m with Brown, much for the same reason. I don’t really have anything against Desme, I just want to see him hit at AA before I buy into him at all.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 8, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
This something I don't know much about:
League tendencies in the minors. Thanks for the info.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
If there is such a huge difference between A+ and AA how come Browns line is virtually the same between this season and last?
by skalordes on Oct 8, 2009 8:36 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
improvement
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Why is it unreasonable to suggest that Desme might also improve?
I understand that Desme is a year older than Brown was at the same levels, but couldn’t you just scale Desme’s power numbers down a bit (so that they’re virtually identical to Brown’s)? And does one year in age really make that much of a difference? I honestly don’t know. I’d imagine that on the whole, older players would predictably have better stats than younger players. But people each age and mature physically at slightly different rates.
When I look at the stats, I see Desme’s A-ball power numbers being better, with more speed (at least in terms of stolen bases—though Brown’s no slouch), virtually identical walk rates, and a better K-rate.
I’m admittedly not as knowledgeable when it comes to minor league performance (or advanced stats on the whole). Is it that Brown’s improvement was unexpected, just as Desme’s should be?
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Variously:
Brown’s K rate was better this season
One year of age makes a pretty substantial difference.
And basically, yes, Brown’s improvement was unexpected. In particular I was not expecting him to cut his strikeout rate by almost 10%. For similar reasons I will not be expecting Desme to cut HIS K rate.
Finally, you have to realize when it comes to power numbers that not only is Midland a tougher league, it’s also a much much more difficult park to hit home runs in than Stockton. Stockton’s fairly neutral overall but extremely favorable for home runs, while Midland actually suppresses HRs according to the last park factors I saw.
Keep in mind that in less than half a season in Stockton last year, Brown hit 16 jacks. I have no doubt he’d have cracked 30 if he had played a full year in Stockton this season, and he might have approached 40. (Not that there would have been any point to that, since he’s clearly outgrown the level.)
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Outfield Power
Everything you said is correct. Can’t quibble with any of it.
Early in the season, after seeing a few Midland games when they were absolutely dominating other Texas League teams, I wrote that Corey Brown was terrific. Very quick bat. Good power. Speedy CF defense. I figured, and still do, that he will be our CF in a year or so. (Of course, Rajai playing at such a new high level might change that.)
Because of a variety of ability and roster factors, I sure think it is likely that Carter will be our LF early to mid-2010.
Now for Desme. I like him, mostly because he came back from a long injury outage and had an unexpectedly awesome year. Perhaps through hope, and also from my admiration for his comeback, I kind of think he just might continue to improve and work his way up the ladder. ( I watched Carter do this for the last 2 years, and am hopefully projecting the same sort of skill improvement and advavncement on Desme, but at a slightly lower power level.) If all that works out, Desme could be a slugging RF for us in a couple of years.
Certainly, not all this may work out. That is always a given. But to me, it seems reasonably possible. Others obviously have a more sober assessment of that probability.
But IF Carter, Brown, and Desme continue their development another step or two to the Bigs, we could have an outfield producing 80-90 HR per year. ….Drool….. That would end all the nagging questions about if Buck, Sweeney, Cunningham, or any of the others will ever break out and start actually slugging.
Maybe some of these other OF’s of ours will improve. But I don’t think they will. I don’t think that any of these current OF’s have ever, at any level, hit like Carter, Brown, and Desme. My bet is on Carter, Brown, and Desme.
Look, these other guys are OK, I guess. But I am just tired of speculating about their OBP and gap power and such. I want to see balls launched into the upper deck. Bouncing off scoreboards. Dejected opposing pitchers shuffling off the field. I want our A’s to look like the Rockhounds did this year.
I think Beane wants the same thing. He wants to win. He wants to sell tickets. Home runs and Henry throwing 102 in the 9th. That sells tickets.
Wishcasting is AWESOME
Ah, that rosy future that awaits.
I hope it comes true just like you’ve envisioned.
You'll get no disagreements from me
Well, except about Carter’s ability to play a competent outfield, which I view as, at best, wildly speculative.
If you really want to go crazy with “100% perfect world scenarios,” you could pretend Rashun Dixon learns how to play baseball and stick him out there instead, since he’d almost certainly be better at defense than Carter.
But honestly, I’d be happy if one of Brown/Desme/Dixon ends up being a good major leaguer.
I do think you’re underrating just how well Aaron Cunningham has hit in his career. He’s never had a sample of more than 80 at-bats at any level where he has failed to post an OPS over .800. His minor league line is amazingly consistent.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Slugging vs defense
I was all ready to say that it is not all that critical how well one plays LF if you can slug. Then I watched what Holiday did yesterday to lose that game to the Dodgers in the ninth. Oops. A perfect example of offense not being the only game-winning skill. One HR, one error. Game lost. Ouch.
Brad Hawpe is a bad player
even though he is unquestionably a good hitter, because he’s just incapable of fielding a position even semi-competently.
I’m concerned that Carter will end up in the same place. At least DHing caps the amount of damage a guy can do to your team.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Oh God....
At least DHing caps the amount of damage a guy can do to your team.
Don’t jinx us like that.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I'd urge you to look at other players moving from A+ to AA
to get a better sense for the relative difficulty in moving from level to level.
Carlos Gonzalez, a good CFer and a top prospect, went from OPSing .919 in A+ to less than .800 in AA.
Josh Donaldson went from .955 to .795
Adrian Cardenas went from .800ish to .718
Jemile Weeks went from .853 to .645
Sean Doolittle went from .945 to .699
Of A’s top prospects, Brett Wallace and Corey Brown stayed about the same. Chris Carter improved.
This isn’t an attack on any of the following prospects. They are all excellent minor league players and have decent chances to make major league teams. However, it demonstrates how difficult the jump is from A+ to AA.
It also highlights why I like Corey Brown. He managed to keep the same line despite a quantum leap in difficulty. That’s huge. If grant desme can do the same, he’d place just as highly on my list. But the history is far from certain that he will.
Exactly.
If you care at all about the actual probability that any of these prospects play a major league game in your evaluation, succeeding in AA is a huge feather in the cap of any prospect.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Those numbers are almost identical to those that Brown put up
Except that Brown had a worse K rate and lower power numbers. I get that Desme’s a year older than Brown was. Is the Brown love (in the face of reservation for Desme) a product of the fact that Brown did successfully hit at AA (even though his power numbers took an excepted drop)?
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Primarily yes
AA is hugely more competitive and performance at that level is a better indicator of true talent.
I should add
Corey Brown before this year would not have been my 4th-5th choice. In a sense, Corey Brown to me last year is what Grant Desme is to me this year. All tools, little discipline, not much competition so I can’t really approximate how high
Some things changed in the past year with Corey Brown on his promotion from A+ to AA.
A couple of things stood out to me while looking at his line.
1. His OBP went up from .322 to .349.
2. His Walk rate went up from 8% to 9.7%
3. His K rate went down from 36.7% to 27.6% (!!!)
4. His SLG went down from .551 to .488
5. His HR’s went down from 1 in every 12 at bats to 1 in ever 28 at bats. while his doubles went from 1 in every 21 ABs to 1 in every 13 ABs
6. His BABIP stayed well within career ranges.
All this with better pitching at the AA level and a less HR friendly stadium in Midland.
My conclusions.
1. Corey Brown’s discipline has improved dramatically , possibly at the cost of some power. The lower K rate points his ability to handle opposing pitching, particularly laying off balls outside the strike zone and more effectively hitting the ones that are in it.
2. Corey Brown may not have as much power as his A+ numbers would have implied but it’s clear that he’s not getting an artificial lift in his discipline because he’s beating the cover off of the ball in an easy to HR park (See the Coors park or the Jason Kendall in Minute Maid park effect). Rather, the fall in his HR rate has nicely corresponded to an increase in the number of doubles, implying that he’s learning to or already knows how to hit to all fields with good effect rather than hit easy to field flyballs once the fences are pushed back.
3. The prior two points combined suggest to me that Corey Brown not only is improving discipline and all that, but also is actively adjusting his approach to cope with improved pitching.
That last point is utterly crucial when a prospect eventually hits the majors. It’s one of the great reasons why Bobby Crosby, despite his power swing, could never make the adjustment to the majors. I’d imagine it’s the single greatest reason why prospects (both hitting and pitching) fail when they’re promoted. Because in an age of slow motion tape and massive video libraries devoted to analyzing the holes in a hitter’s swing, the inability to adjust is a death knell.
I don’t know if Corey Brown will make the majors or if he does, whether he’ll be successful at it. I don’t know whether he’s really adjusting or just getting lucky. But, at the very least, the initial, hopeful signs are there.
Well stated
I’ll be making similar arguments about Sean Doolittle in a couple of threads, once we clear the guys who I have in front of him.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This is why Brown is high on my list
I would also suggest that you look at the Midland park effects which tend to suppress home runs and increase doubles.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Whatever
Let’s just put him on the list so that people will shut up about it already. And then people from other websites can point and laugh at us.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
My grandmother always used to ask "What would the neighbors think of you?"
and my dad would say, “F**k the neighbors. I can kick all of their asses.”
And eventually, he did…
The moral of the story is that Brown’s AA season is more upwardly projectable than Desme’s A/A+ season,
but we get to vote however we want, because we’re us, and if any “them’s” don’t like it,
we can have my dad kick their asses.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 8, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
I found this comment really funny
So I rec’d it. Congrats.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Sooo are you gonna finish that asskickin story?
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
not much to finish...
other than Dad’s older now, and rather than kick someone’s ass, he’s more likely to bust all the windows out of their car with a potato gun.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 9, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
There's a nice toast I know
That goes like – “To us……fuck them.”
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 8, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
You know that Corey Brown only had a .008 wOBA advantage over Donaldson?
I mean I like Brown too and his numbers might be slightly more sustainable, but his injuries to me are concerning. This is the same problem I have with Weeks. They are both guys that rely on speed to provide value (though obviously Weeks more so). But where I am concerned the old scouting reports for Donaldson are more than canceled out by Brown’s injury and K history.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
He seems to have more defensive skill though
I’m not that worried about injuries with him; they seem to mostly have been kind of fluky.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
They were nagging leg injuries no?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
That is worse, I'll admit
Not so much in and of themselves but because the dim bulbs in the A’s training staff haven’t got a clue what to do with nagging leg injuries.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
First canditate I ever worked for.
Great guy.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I went with Desme
Yes he is old.
Yes he has great slash line stats.
But for me, it was the speed that put him above the other contenders. (or perhaps, I should say the speed, in addition to the other obsence stats.)
BA quotes Modesto and former Desme (at Cal Poly) manager as saying Desme has 60 speed.
So that tells me he’s above average but nothing special, speed wise. Do you have a different scouting report?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 8, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
What I picture when I read about his slightly-above-average speed, but great stolen base numbers
is a Matt Holliday sort of deal, maybe a little faster.
DISCLAIMER: Please people, I’m not saying Desme is Matt Holliday. I’m just using him as a stolen base allegory.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Are you saying
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Oops... should be... Are you saying Desme has bad smileitics?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Holliday is pretty dang fast,
and looked slow cause he runs like a drunken, jointless man. I also blame his strange running style for some of the belief that he didn’t care.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I'm going with Green; Ynoa next
Green is a high pick with very high upside; Ynoa is the equivalent of a top 5 pick. None of the other guys have performed well enough that we would be happy to have taken them in the top half of the first round. I would be a little horrified if the A’s traded Green for Desme if he was in another org…
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 8, 2009 8:39 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah, that's a good point.
I was planning to go Brown next, but I might have to go Ynoa.
What do you see as Green's upside?
Scouts seem to have backed off hard on the Longoria/Tulowitzki comparisons. So does that mean he’s Alexei Ramirez? What Bobby Crosby was supposed to be?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 8, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I see Green's upside as follows:
An average to slightly above average fielder with a potential +5 FRAA and maybe 15-20 +BRAA.
I would think the upside of his splits would be somewhere around .300/.360/.440, which would make him a potential 5.4 WAR player, which is definitely star level.
Of course, that’s upside, not a projection—O, the misery of prospects.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Then he is Tulowitzki?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 8, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
He's about the same caliber as Tulo when Tulo was drafted (a bit worse probably),
but he’s worked out a lot better than it is reasonable to expect from just about everyone at draft time.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Tulo didn't have a blah junior year.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
His semi-reasonable upside is .300/.350/.450 which with average defense
which would be 4-4.5 WAR. I’m not worried about him not getting compared to to Longo/Tulo, although you see the similarity on video… The .300 average is perhaps a bit starry-eyed, but he could easily wind up slugging better than that. His power will only be limited by a non-HR swing which he apparently has now.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
What Crosby was supposed to be is probably a pretty good way of putting it
with a higher average but fewer HRs.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
In that case he's a better prospect than anyone in the system, at least in the same category
as Carter and maybe Ynoa?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 8, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I would say he has better upside than anyone in the system besides Ynoa
but he might not hit.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I don't think he has better upside over Carter or Cardenas.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Cardenas' upside is debatable
If Green shows a little power and speed, I think its safe to say his upside is more than Cardenas’… not saying he is a better prospect though.
Greens upside is debatable
If Cardenas shows a little OBP and defense, I think it is safe to say his upside is more than Green.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Green has much more defensive upside, and substantially more power upside.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
But his OBP isn't going to be that good while Cardenas can be
Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning but scouts say that Cardenas can hit .300 in his sleep so with his walk rate he becomes a very good player even without the power. If he hits close to .300, he is a excellent candidate to hit something like .300/.375/.400 in the bigs which is good for about 25 BRAA. His defense at third should be at least average once he learns the position. Essentially Cardenas isn’t a bad bet to be a 4 WAR player once he reaches his peak and could be up to a 5 WAR player. That is a very good prospect with the chance to be one of those extraordinarily valuable players who gets absolutely no street cred.
I don’t see that from Green.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
.300/.375/.400 is more like +15
although his upside is better than that since he could do better than .1 iso. Looking just at upside, Cardenas clearly has better oba upside, but Green has a lot more power upside and he has a healthy head start with defense.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
actually more like +10; it's about what Barton did this year which is +10 for a full season
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
sorry i fucked that up
Im not sure how I did that… they were from an old post. but that is still not a hugely optimistic projection and its 3.5 WAR if he is a plus defender at third or can hit more than singles than he is a quite all star
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
That is an accurate representation of Cardenas's upside
All I am saying is there is an outside chance that Green hits better than that and plays SS. Not likely, but we know less about him and his skills are still developing. Cardenas at this point is not going to become a different type of player. We’ve narrowed down where Cardenas will end up… Green’s prospects are still wide open and could go way up or way down.
Upside doesn’t mean expected… its the best we can hope for regardless of the odds.
But that isn't really his upside thats a slightly optimistic projection
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Projecting upsides is kind of a folly anyway
unless a player exceeds what you predicted it is impossible to prove that you predicted the upside incorrectly rather than a player just not meeting that upside.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is to say I agree with your last point
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Where are people getting this defensive upside from? The guy made 9 errors in his first 21 games at USC this season.
by skalordes on Oct 8, 2009 6:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Errors are not a negative indicator of fielding ability in the low minors
Under the right circumstances they are actually a positive indicator. You can’t make an error if you never get to the ball in the first place.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Carter maybe, but I think Cardenas has about the lowest upside of anyone relative to their mean projections
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 8, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
exactly....
Green then Ynoa- after that is when it should get fuzzy.
cal league
Brandon Wood hit .321/.383/.672 with 43 HRs as a 20 year old, but the Ks have been too much for him; and his K% in the cal league was better than Desme, Doolittle, and Carter and much better than Brown.
Dallas McPherson hit .308/.404/.606 and the Ks got him too, and his K% wasn’t even that bad in the cal league.
Lack of BBs killed those guys, which is a reason to prefer Brown to Desme somewhat, although I’m a bit more worried about the Ks for Brown.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 8, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with your points,
but I still think that Brandon Wood could be a good major league player if given a chance.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
I think there's still like a 25% chance that he turns into an All-Star caliber player
It’s hard to hit that consistently for that long in the high minors and not ultimately be decent. I’m just praying the Angels bail on him before it happens.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Yeah I would have loved to get him + for Wuertz
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
it could still happen...
If they pay up to keep Figgins – who is rumored to be their top free agent priority – they may choose to trade Wood to fill other holes. I could definitely see them doing that.
Or the Angels signing Beltre for 3b and letting Figgins sign with the Yankees, etc.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 8, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Please let this be true
The first part, I mean. Figgins is not going to be worth whatever contract he gets. They should just let him walk and give Wood the job next season.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Also Brown has hit in AA,
Desme hasn’t. There’s a huge jump from A+ to AA, and I’m looking forward and hoping that Desme will make it well next year, but it would be hard to consider him a better prospect than Brown when Brown has already proven he can make the jump.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Desme
I look at it like this: His BB/K ratio improved quite a bit as the season wore on.
KC: 21/81 (288 PA)
Stockton: 33/67 (264 PA)
I think that ratio keeps improving next season in Midland (alas, Chris Carter). He hadn’t played a healthy season of baseball in 2+ years (2007 Vancouver doesn’t really count since the wrist injury happened prior to those AB’s).
Well Brown didn't exactly answer all that many doubts...
and I would expect more or less the same of Desme—pretty good overall line based on good power, but way too many Ks. What I would say in Desme’s favor is that it’s a little more likely that he’ll make biggish changes in his plate discipline than that Brown will, just because Desme is more green and hasn’t shown the lack of plate discipline for as long (and he got progressively better as the season went on.)
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
But they were both considered top prospects
It didn’t pan out but it wasn’t held against them at the time. Also consider that Desme matched those OPS numbers and tossed in a mess of steals on top of it. So he did better than both of those very highly touted prospects in his first year of pro ball. We can find a couple examples of why any player’s stats won’t hold up. Let me go see how many 23 year old, .795 OPSing, AA catchers with bad defense never made it…
Look at it this way…
If Desme crashes and burns, oh well not big deal.
If Desme keeps it up we have a potential all-star on out hands.
I can’t really say that about any of our other prospects besides Wallace and Carter. Maybe Ynoa but he hasn’t pitched yet.
For the record, I’ll be going:
Desme
Green
Ynoa
Doolittle
Leon
Brown
Donaldson
Might swap Brown and Donaldson… need to think on it. I am trying very hard not to hold last year against Doolittle.
A question about Sean Doolittle
Where would people be ranking him if, rather than being hurt, he’d just come off his 2008 season?
I’m not suggesting he should be this high, but it does seem as if the success of Carter (and the re-emergance of Non-Suck Barton?) has overshadowed him somewhat?
I had him #11 last year, and would be around that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 8, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't hold it much against him because he doesn't have a history of injury
If he gets hurt again, different story.
I have him at #8 right now after Brown, Leon and Donaldson.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
can I ask why Green is (seemingly) pretty far down your list, Paul?
I’m still waiting to decide how to vote from #5-10; I need to hear a lot of opinions to crystalize my views here.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 8, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm EXTREMELY chary about giving rankings to players with what amounts to zero minor league time
Green could easily be a complete bust who never reaches AA. His floor is way worse than any other prospect who’s being seriously discussed at this point, other than I guess Ynoa.
It’s not that I don’t respect the pick, it’s just that it was explicitly a high-risk gamble. As was Weeks, for that matter, and he didn’t rate all that highly on my list last season either. And at least in Weeks’s case, I had actually watched 3 or 4 of his games; I’ve never seen Green play at all.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This may be personal bias
I loved the Green pick, and, as a sidenote, really disliked the Weeks pick.
And I generally agree that one should be very wary of recent draftees/LA signees. But Green won’t ever see AA? The dude was sent directly to A+, the level directly below. For him to not make it to the next level, it would basically take a catastrophic injury.
Green went to a major college conference and has no major injury history. Unlike, you know, a guy like Desme, who went to a school in a so-so conference and has been injured almost constantly since drafted.
I know I need not rave against Desme to you. But I would say Green has less flameout potential than a pitcher with terrible mechanics or a pitcher being converted to the rotation after never started before.
Green seems like a good mix of upside and floor to me. He’s the kind of polished hitter you normally see as a safe pick: low Ks, high average, premium position. But then he has the upside: his build, his CC showing, etc.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I feel the need to point out that the Big West is not a so-so conference when it comes to baseball
It’s one of the top leagues in the country. Cal Poly is not one of the best programs in the league, but it’s emphatically a major conference. It usually puts 5 or so teams into the NCAA tournament and often puts a team or two into the College World Series.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Oh, I just looked at the first college
Desme went to SDSU and transferred to Cal Poly. One of the arguments against Strasburg that he didn’t play against top college competition and so I assumed Desme didn’t play against top competition either.
Though it does create a new argument for Desme: a fellow Aztec (if just for a year) will make Strasburg feel more at home and sign with us at FA.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
You're overstating a little :)
The Big West usually sends 3, with the usual suspects being Long Beach St., CS Fullerton, and UC-Irvine. In a very, very good year, they send four teams, but I’m pretty sure five would be unheard of for them.\
(I know this because I was the sports editor of the school paper while I was down there and CP was agonizingly left on the outside looking in as the fourth-best team in the conference a few times).
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 10, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Leon is getting more support than I thought he would.
Would a supporter care to make a case for him? How is he any better than James Simmons?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
I voted for Leon
I guess it was because I want to see Desme improve one more year and I would like to see Brown cut down on the strikeouts some. Desme, Brown, and Leon are the only 3 that I really considered here. I actually like Leon more than Weeks as well, more so because of the injury prone label that could occur with Weeks. As for Leon, I really liked what he did in the last 7 games as a 20 year old starter in AA. 30.2 IP, 29ks, and 8BBs. Also as a 19 year old in AAA he more than held his own in 14.2 IP. 21 Ks and just 2 BBs. I know none of the samples are very large, but that seems very promising for someone of his age. I can not throw out stats like many here, and do not have much in regards as a scouting report, but for some reason I have very high hopes for this guy.
Scouting report
Sneaky 91-93 fastball with movement; not too much projectability, but this is fine for a righthander.
Good slider, developing changeup.
Inconsistent command, sometimes pinpoint, sometimes average.
Combined with the great results he’s put up in his career so far and his relative youth, this is a very good pitching prospect. He has the upside of a #2 starter in the mold of a James Shields type.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
My hands tingle with power when I think of Arnold Leon.
Total right brain yummy goodness feeling.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 8, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I really like him
His performance so far, especially considering his age, has been very good. However he only has 7 starts and 35 innings as a starter, and while he was excellent in those starts, I would like to see a full season out of him as a starter before I rank him as such. I am surprised he is getting so much more support than Tyson Ross.
Ross has a lot of red flags
Wildly inconsistent strikeout rate and poor mechanics are undoubtedly scaring a lot of people off. And even though he’s a similar risk/upside type player to Desme, he didn’t just put up a season’s worth of gaudy (if somewhat irrelevant) performance numbers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Desme
He’s basically the same player as Brown. He was way better in Sacto though, and Brown was more hurt this year, so I’m going with the hot hand. I’m not concerned about the age.
Grant Green’s college numbers don’t inspire me; they scare me. I’m really anxious for him to get out there and answer the questions about his wrist, power, plate discipline, and defense.
If Josh Donaldson is the number five prospect, what is Joel Galarraga? What was Landon Powell? Those guys can actually play defense, and hit. Donaldson doesn’t have a future in the big leagues if he doesn’t learn to catch, positional adjustments and 3B or not. He’s not close right now. You have to take reality into account at some point.
by AgitationStation on Oct 8, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Desme had a .360 obp a 900+ ops with 31 hr’s and 40 sbs after a year off baseball is enough for me to think he has a future.
by tafkasam on Oct 8, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Desme has never played in Sacramento
Nor has brown. Desme was in Kane County Single A then Stockton A+.
Brown was in Midland AA.
If he had put those numbers up in AAA, I’d be voting him up there with Chris Carter.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
really?
I’d think it obvious what I meant to anybody with two brain cells to rub together, but thanks for the clarification.
by AgitationStation on Oct 8, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I don't think it is
You make it sound like they played at the same level this year.
That isn’t the case. I sought to clarify.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I should clarify
My intent was not to “bust balls” or be an ass. If interpreted that way, I apologize.
It’s mainly that the discussion about Grant Desme vs. Corey Brown (at least as I’ve seen it), tends to ignore or gloss over the level that they’re playing at. When evaluating prospects, it makes all the difference because results are meaningful to different degrees at different levels.
How you interpret them results in the different rankings. I can deal with a difference in opinion, but I’m trying to make sure everyone is on the same page data wise.
If he put up those numbers in Sacramento, he would be like the #5 overall prospect...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Crap, I lost my list of players to add
Figueroa, de los Santos, Matt Sulentic, Ryan Ortiz, Ben Hornbeck, Shawn Haviland, Josh Horton, Dan Thomas, Andrew Carignan, Jason Christian. I’m sure I’m missing some so I’ll add more later if need be.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
However much you dislike HS catchers, putting Ortiz (and a lot of those guys) above Stassi would be ridiculous
It amounts to saying already that signing Stassi was a huge blunder. Carignan, Thomas, Horton, and Christian would also be way way down my list. Carignan is a destitute man’s H.R….
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
or did you mean add to z's list of guys to add... I withdraw my complaint in that case
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Im pretty sure thats at to z's list since there aren't doubles.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
The latter
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Some more
Robin Rosario (sucked this year, but still only 18)
Wilfredo Solano
Conner Crumbliss
Daniel Straily
Yusuf Carter
Carlos Hernandez
Tyler Ladendorff
Jon Meloan
Corey Wimberly
Justin Souza
Justin Marks
Anthony Recker
Travis Banwart
Graham Godfrey
Ronny Morla (yeah, I’m still not totally off the wagon yet)
Paul Smyth
Julio Ramos
Ian Krol
Anthony Huttenlocker
Reynaldo Mateo
Chris Mederos
Conner Hoehn
Josh Leyland
Alex Valdez
Gregorio Petit
Tommy Everidge
Joel Galarraga
A lot of these guys I’ve got nothing but statlines on. I suppose putting stats with context is the point of the whole exercise when we get to the lower levels, though.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
What do people say about Krol? I've really liked a lot of things I've read about him, but I don't really know much
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
From my understanding Krol is Anderson without the velocity gain of the last two years and without the killer slider]
and with make up issues which may or may not be overblown
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions
So Anderson without his two pitches...?
And without his makeup…
Which part is like Anderson?
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
Lefty 89-91 velocity
with good but not devastating breaking pitches. Like Anderson when drafted before his slider became dominate and he added a ton of velo.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks.
By the way, where do you get scouting reports like that?
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 8, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Plus command, in particular
Both of them were viewed as being unusually polished pitchers for high schoolers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He was really highly thought of before the incident which led to him missing his entire senior season of high school
I’m very high on him. I was actually much happier to see the A’s sign him than Stassi (though obviously 2 is better than 1…) and might even rank him higher than Stassi depending on what I read about Stassi’s chances to play defensive positions other than catcher.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Can I make a suggestion?
I think a runoff would be a good idea if the top vote getter receives less than 50% of the vote and there is another candidate within 10%.
Having Desme win this with less than thirty percent of the vote and with Green close behind him doesn’t make much sense to me, especailly as someone who voted for another candidate and has a strong preference between the two.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I like this idea.
Also, a question:
Which level of the minors would major college be most accurate for comparsion? A? High A? Short season? In the past I’ve read that the Mexican League is like AA, Japan is a bit better than AAA, etc.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
The competition is probably a cross between SS and Low A
but the statistics can’t be considered the same because of the metal bats.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends heavily on the conference
ACC, SEC, Big 12, Pac 10 and Big West are probably about SS-A level. Big 10, Big East, C-USA, MWC are probably about rookie level. Then you have tons of conferences that aren’t even that good.
At the same time the run environment is like 6 runs a game because of metal bats. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is about the only even semi-useful pitching stat for that reason.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Please, no
Last year we only did runoffs if guys were in a statistical dead heat (within 1%). Even then there were several of them, and frankly I found them to be extremely dull— really just rehashing the same issues as before.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
really I think the case here would be an interesting one as less than half of the people voted for one of the top 2
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
This is why I was trying to dwindle it down to 5
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
You just can't win given SBN's voting system limitations
My advice is to pick a system that appeals to you and stick with it. It won’t be perfect.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Really my advice would be to cave to eveyone who complains :-P
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
What limitations?
SBN allows at least 12 candidates in a poll. I didn’t test it beyond that. We don’t need that many.
I actually think it’s perfect the way it is — about 8 candidates per poll, with Zonis picking them based on his judgment plus suggestions in the comments, and plurality vote wins unless it’s really really close in which case there’s a one-time runoff.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
We only need 1 candidate
the DFA candidate :-P
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
and this is the problem with the human race.
everybody thinks the world would be better with themselves in charge.
I hope someday we develop enhanced psychic powers and mirror-touch synesthesia so we can nip this bullshit in the bud.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 9, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
A perfect voting system requires choice ranking
That’s all I meant.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
A perfect voting system is mathematically impossible...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I actually don't think that's true in the abstract.
Here, where there are 50+ names to vote on it might be logistically impossible.
In a political election, though, where there are 6-12 names a ranking ballot with instant runoffs seems pretty darn perfect.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
No, it's literally mathematically impossible
You cannot have a voting system for more than two candidates which satisfies these criteria:
1. No single person controls the results (i.e. the person he votes for wins in every scenario),
2. Addition of irrelevant alternatives doesn’t change how society ranks a subset of the candidates,
3. Increase in one voter’s valuation of a certain candidate always makes that candidate more likely to prevail, and
4. Any particular ordering of the candidates is actually theoretically possible.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This
People who imagine a “perfect” voting system haven’t even achieved the task of making a precise mathematical definition of what constitutes perfect. That’s because there is no such thing.
The best you can do is pick a method and accept its results. By tradition and convenience we’ve decided that in these polls the plurality winner at each step wins the slot. I think that’s as good a method as any.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Sure, I'm fine with however Zonis does this
I’m confused by PT’s points
3, I think is the important one. I think the system I described does that.
1. I don’t understand what this means. It would seem that any legitimate voting system (i.e. non-Iranian) would satisfy this, but maybe I’m misunderstanding.
2. I don’t understand how a voting system is supposed to manage societal values. If a 3rd party candidate changes my preferences, the voting system need merely reflect my intentions.
4. If you mean “a person can rank however they want” then what system doesn’t have this feature? If you mean “there’s a voter who is going to choose each possible ranking” I don’t see how that’s the voting system’s responsibility. I conclude I don’t get this one either.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
point 1
I think that is in there because otherwise you could come up with a system that satisfies the other points in some trivial way, but doesn’t actually constitute a voting system.
Fair enough
Not a serious concern in a real system though.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
and point 4
it means that there is nothing about the system that prevents a particular result. For example, the simple “rank people by how many votes they get” system satisfies this criteria, because any candidate could get the most votes, then any other candidate could get the second most, and so on.
If you had some system (and I am really just making this up off the top of my head) with multiple candidate from each of two political parties, and then you required the final ranking to alternate parties with descending rank, then this would violate point 4.
I think you are right that, for any voting system that passes the sniff test, point 3 is the major obstacle (i.e. sensible systems will pass the other criteria trivially). But the other stuff if necessary to make it into a precise and rigorous definition that can be shown mathematically to have no solutions.
a little right brain...
I would think for an election to be perfect, then it would have to be free of corruption, or possibility of corruption, and I don’t believe such a thing is possible within the human race at this time.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 9, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
No-- that's the key thing about Arrow's Theorem
It shows that even in a non-corrupt, completely above-board election, the voting system you choose will always have the risk of impacting the outcome in some paradoxical way. Even if you had uncorruptible robots voting, Arrow’s theorem would still hold.
Corruption is an independent problem (and one which I’ve already alluded to earlier on the thread).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
So based on my understanding
The system I proposed easily satisfies all four criteria (which is largely based on my understanding that 1 and 4 are trivially easy to satisfy).
Am I missing something?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Yes
although I’m not nearly well enough versed in social choice theory to explain what. I’m operating at pretty much the limit of my capacity even to understand the proof of Arrow’s theorem at all.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Re: point two
Let’s say you like Derek Jeter more than Ichiro and there’s going to be a vote for who’s the best player. And 51% of people agree with you, so you’re about to win. But wait— someone decided to include Juan Pierre in the vote, too, for some bizarre reason.
Obviously you’re not suddenly going to change your vote to Ichiro (or Juan Pierre, for that matter). But it’s absolutely possible for the inclusion of Juan Pierre in the vote to flip the actual WINNER of the vote from Derek Jeter to Ichiro (because the small minority of maniac Juan Pierre fans all happen to like Jeter better for some reason).
That’s a real problem. Why should insertion of an irrelevant alternative candidate suddenly flip societal preferences?
This criterion is particularly a problem with the sort of elections run in the US and England (winner-take-all plurality elections). American-style elections like this one actually satisfy points 1, 3, and 4. But they fail miserably at point 2.
Colin’s already touched on why points 1 and 4 are in there.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
To quote myself "a ranking ballot with instant runoffs"
In other words, once neither Jeter nor Ichiro gets 50%, the lowest vote getter’s votes are eliminated and distributed. Repeat until someone is over 50%. In your scenario, the Pierre-ites’ votes are redistributed to their #2 choice and Jeter wins (damn him!!!)
I still haven’t seen anything to suggest that such a system fails any of the four points.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
IRV does not eliminate strategic voting and paradoxes, although it may reduce them in practice.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It certainly does eliminate individual strategic voting
Although not necessarily all paradoxes.
Given I can only influence my vote, there is never any advantage to ranking my preferences incorrectly (that I can see).
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I still don't get why strategic voting comes into this at all.
The point of this list is to represent the AN community.
If I know that 80% of AN thinks Chris Carter is #1 but I think Michael Ynoa is #1, and I figure out a way to hack SBN in order to vote a thousand times so that Michael Ynoa wins the top slot anyway, what have I accomplished? It just means that the list that is supposed to represent AN now represents Iglew instead. How is that a win for anybody?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I'm not really talking about the community list anymore
(and I still believe my point above: “My advice [to Zonis] is to pick a system that appeals to you and stick with it. It won’t be perfect.”)
That launched a discussion (I find interesting) on voting systems in the abstract.
As for strategic voting, if there’s a prospect I hate at a given rank who is running closely with a prospect I don’t mind I might vote for the latter even if he’s not who I like. What you describe isn’t strategic voting, it’s more like fraud.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
IRV actually has some really interesting strategic voting.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Simple example.
Out of 100 voters, 40 of them state a preference of Ichiro-Mauer-Jeter, 35 state a preference of Jeter-Ichiro-Mauer, and 25 state a preference of Mauer-Jeter-Ichiro.
Zonis runs the poll. Ichiro wins with 40%. According to DFA’s objection cited above, that’s less than 50% with a margin of less than 10%, so there must be a runoff of the top two. Your instant runoff proposal does the same thing. Either way, Mauer is out and there’s a runoff between Ichiro and Jeter, which Jeter wins 60-40.
Is this your desired result? In spite of the fact that Jeter would lose a runoff to Mauer 65-35? In spite of the fact that 75% of the voters listed Ichiro 1st OR second, while only 60% listed Jeter 1st or second (and 65% listed Mauer 1st or second).
You can define the rules of the polling however you like and it will indeed result in an answer. It’s just not at all clear that the answer is a good match to our intuitive sense of who “should have won”.
That’s just a simple example, too. You could get into even more trouble by including the other three ordering possibilities, not to mention adding more candidates.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I do want Jeter to win
The whole point is to allow the 25 people to express their true preference (Mauer) without wasting their vote. Without IRV, they would have to vote for their second favored candidate (Jeter) or watch their least favorite candidate win.
And I’m not convinced by the monotonicity requirement as defined by “making changes at any time to any vote.” As the article PT links says,
"IRV is monotonic as far as additional votes are concerned. Austan-Smith and Banks argued, in 1991, that “monotonicity/nonmonotonicity in electoral systems is a nonissue.”63"
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
So I just spent some time looking at this
Here’s what I think:
1. A lot of the properties of a perfect voting system (at least that Wikipedia talks about) seem silly.
2. There are really two goals: First, give voters an incentive to vote their real preferences. Second, interpret those preferences correctly.
3. I don’t love the condorcet idea because it ignores the fact that people tend to have stronger opinions at the top of a list than at the bottom. My understanding is that a situation is possible where my first-choice candidate loses because I ranked the main competition 4th instead of 5th. This strikes me as a larger concern than the example you cite.
In your example, 75% of people list Ichiro 1st or 2nd. He finishes second, and there is nothing an Ichiro supporter could have done to change that.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
He finishes 2nd under IRV.
Under the Zonis system, he finishes 1st, which is where I think he should finish.
He also finishes 1st under IRV if the 25 Mauer lovers — the same ones you thought would vote strategically under the Zonis system — figure out that they can lift Mauer from #3 to #2 by voting Ichiro in the first round. So there is something an Ichiro supporter can do: he can try to fill the Mauer supporters’ minds with thoughts of strategic voting.
The whole thing is a giant rock-paper-scissors — under either system, the only difference between the two being whether the runoff is at the front end or the back end. That’s the whole point of my example.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Winner takes all...
…so I don’t see this as a valid risk
they can lift Mauer from #3 to #2
Whereas not voting for Mauer in the first place (to keep Ichiro from winning) is standard procedure (and part of why America is a two party system)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Eh
IRV frequently produces results which are at odds with the Borda count vote as well, as in Iglew’s example. And I have a ton of problems with that.
The point of all of this is that elections need to be designed specifically for conditions in order to minimize the risk of paradoxical outcomes. There is no one best possible system. If you have a system in which rock-paper-scissors outcomes never happen, then IRV is a good solution. In a situation like this one, where rock-paper-scissors outcomes are routine, it’s not particularly a good solution at all.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
you want Jeter to win
because he is the only TRUE YANKEE on the list.
Clearly we have now found a perfect voting system.
It's his dazzlingly beautiful jump throw mostly
But also because he’s just so darn underrated.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hmm, OK
I actually think Jeter shouldn’t win in that example, since he does not have most support for #1 slot alone, and he has the least support for #1 or #2 slot.
But OK, I’ll take your choices at face value:
Without IRV, they would have to vote for their second favored candidate (Jeter) or watch their least favorite candidate win.
So you object to the Zonis system because you think the 25 Mauer lovers want to prevent their least favorite candidate (ie, Ichiro) from taking top spot and will have to vote their non-preference (ie, Jeter) in order to prevent that.
My first problem with that is it’s dubious strategy. Mauer isn’t going get #1 no matter how they play it. By strategically voting as you suggest, they would successfully thwart the hated Ichiro from taking #1, but since Ichiro beats Mauer they do so only at the cost of pushing Mauer down to #3. Whereas if they vote their true preference, yes, Ichiro wins, but then Mauer beats Jeter for #2.
The result the 25 Mauer lovers want to see is M-J-I. If they vote their conscience, they get I-M-J. With the strategic voting you recommend, they get J-I-M. Strategic voting is only an improvement if they hate Ichiro more than they love Mauer.
My second problem is that if you stipulate that voters really do care most about preventing their least favorite from making it to #1, then your proposed IRV system creates the exact same moral hazard for the 40 Ichiro lovers. With the IRV system in place, they know that voting for Ichiro will trigger a Jeter-Ichiro runoff which Ichiro will lose, resulting in the hated Jeter making #1 and Ichiro placing second.
If we now assume, like you assume with the 25 Mauer lovers, that the 40 Ichiro lovers hate Jeter more than they love Ichiro, they could strategically vote for Mauer. This prevents Jeter from taking #1 but at the cost of letting him win #2 and pushing Ichiro to #3. The result they want to see is I-M-J; if they vote their conscience, they get J-I-M; if they vote “strategically”, they get M-J-I. Again, it’s an improvement only if they hate Jeter more than they love Ichiro. It’s exactly the same situation you complain about in the Zonis system, just the mirror image.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
This is an interesting point
But I think you’re worrying too much about second place.
The Mauer voters want Mauer to win, but certainly not Ichiro. There are enough of them to get their next-best outcome.
On the Ichiro voters, it doesn’t matter who they vote #2 and there is no way to do more for Ichiro’s chances of winning than to vote him #1.
The benefit of the system is that the Mauer voters get to register a preference for Mauer without throwing a plurality win to their least favorite candidate. In what I guess we’re calling the “Zonis system” Ichiro and Jeter voters would vote the same (#1, and only, vote for their guy). Mauer voters would have to decide whether the joy of voting for Mauer is worth increasing Ichiro’s odds of winning. That seems strictly worse to me.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I keep losing track of whether we're
talking about the current actual poll or just abstractly about real-life elections. If we’re talking about this poll, then #2 certainly matters, and it’s certainly not “winner take all” like you said above.
If it were winner take all we would have crowned Chris Carter the winner and stopped this series after poll #1.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Abstract
And either way it’s winner take all (the winner of this poll is prospect #5, the runner up is not necessarily #6)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
But in order for any of this to come to fruition,
you’d have to have inscrutable proof of everyone’s preference beforehand and have the ability to mobilize them to change their preference based on who they didn’t want to win.
I know, abstract…I actually enjoy this kind of content. You statheads are okay.
Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 10, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I support this idea
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I feel like the reason this idea is getting such support
Is only because a lot of us (including me) are fairly against Desme being voted the #5 prospect…
I think it would just be a little bit disingenuous to add this rule now.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 8, 2009 5:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree
I mean, it’s possible that there really are a hard-core group of Desme-heads and everyone else has him at the bottom of their lists, but I’d rather not waste two days finding out whether that’s true.
It’s not like we aren’t free to complain about how idiotic the ranking was later on.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Dude it is a really really long offseason
i thing we can spare two days
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 3:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
It’s also not like the results of the poll determines who wins the prize, gets elected to office, gets more playing time, etc.
If you disagree with the results, fine. After it’s over post your own complete rankings. I expect several people will do that anyway.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
that's a good idea...
to have the sabermetric lists stand as a compliment/balance to the popularity contest list.
There is wisdom in crowds, but there is stupidity in crowds too.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 9, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
That's an arbitrary cutoff, though.
Sure, it’s possible that Green is the second choice of all the Donaldson and Brown voters so that Green would beat Desme in a run-off. It’s also possible that Ynoa is everyone’s 2nd choice and he would beat either Green or Desme in a runoff, in which case you’ve artificially promoted Green merely by virtue of him coming in second on the first round.
Short of doing multiple runoffs for each slot, peeling off a few at the bottom with each re-vote, you’re never going to have a foolproof system. It’s a tradeoff between improving accuracy of the results and running way too many polls. You can’t reach 100% accuracy anyway, and there’s no clear mathematical line between where it’s worth it and where it’s not. Where you draw the line is subjective, but I think your 50%/10% standard is way too generous. Better to just accept that it’s a plurality vote: a guy could win in a close race with less than 50% and that’s just how it is.
I say leave it as it is. Plurality vote wins unless it’s neck-and-neck close (as judged ad hoc by Zonis).
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Totally agree
With the depth of this system I think a lot of the polls from here on out are going to end with the top vote getter at less than 50% of the vote. There is no realistic way to get a completely accurate vote and I don’t really think we need to. This provides a nice forum for people to discuss the A’s prospects and it gives a general view of the system for people who don’t follow the minors that closely.
No need to spend extra time parsing out individual spots, lets just keep it moving.
The point of this is the discussions
and not the votes, which in addition to being subject to all the standard paradoxes, are eminently riggable (I won’t go into why for obvious reasons, but let’s just say that these elections would not be judged “free and fair” by the UN).
I’d much rather have non-repetitive discussions than a slightly more “accurate” list.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well then I guess I can't vote in the next several polls
because I want Donaldson to win but the masses don’t agree with me but I sure as hell don’t want a bunch of other prospects to get placed ahead of where I think they should solely because Im voting for Donaldson.
You encourage strategic voting which is bad.
Yes the cut off is arbitrary but I think that less than half of the voters picked either Green or Desme so there should be a runoff.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
How is that different from your way?
Under your proposed rules, if you don’t want Desme to make the next slot, you could vote for whatever 2nd place challenger you think has the best chance of knocking him out in a runoff, even if it’s not the guy you most want.
The solution to “strategic voting” is not to game the poll to try to discourage it; it’s to step back and ask yourself why the fuck you’re even thinking “strategically” in the first place. This is not a contest where we all compete against each other to try to make the end result most resemble our list. It is a good-faith attempt to measure the net opinion of all participants. You are simply being asked: who do you think is the best prospect of those remaining? If you think the best prospect is Donaldson, you vote for Donaldson. It’s not rocket science.
I don’t know what the heck you mean by “I can’t vote in the next several polls”. Of course you can vote. You like Donaldson so you will vote for Donaldson. Yes, you’re going to end up voting for him four or five times in a row. Big deal. I’m going to vote for Corey Brown a few times in a row. And somewhere down the line Paul is going to vote for Ronny Morla several times in a row. That’s just the way it is with these polls. Have you not participated in one before?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
for some reason this made me smile
ill answer the legitimate points in the morning for now dancing!
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Thank you
This game does not “work” if people do not play it in good faith. It doesn’t affect anything— so, even more so than in typical elections, the only thing strategic voting can possibly accomplish is to make everyone’s experience worse.
Anyone who does it should be smacked several times with a wet noodle.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This is a fun permutation.
You and I are in complete and whole-hearted agreement, with DFA on the other side.
I’ve got wet noodles at the ready in case he remains intransigent.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Right now I am on the MikeA train
I rec’d a few of his arguments in this thread. I think he went with Green 5th and plans to go with Ynoa 6th.
These other guys we’re kicking around – Desme, Brown, Donaldson, Leon, Ross, Doolittle – none of have the upside of that pair, IMO.
Now that we’re completely past the four guys who I consider surefire future starting major league regulars, I’d much rather pick high-upside guys who haven’t developed any minor league statline for me to be pessimistic about yet.
I’m gonna wait to read all replies still and then vote tonight after I read some more of you guys’ thoughts.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
I think that is a really reasonable voting model
with regard to Stassi and Green. However, I think you can’t say that Ynoa hasn’t done anything to make you pessimistic since failing to be healthy enough to pitch in rookie ball has to come down in the negative column. Between those two I would choose Green.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
good points.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 10, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
hardest one so far...
i weakly picked Ynoa
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
I think too much emphasis has been put on Desmes age. Maybe some people won’t agree with this logic but since he lost so much time to upper body injurys he really couldn’t work on hitting. So he couldn’t develop. In my mind being 23 and sitting out a year is no different than being 22.(Does that make sense to anyone else?) Yes, I understand that he is infact a year older but really he wasn’t that old for A ball. On a differen’t note I haven’t seen it mentioned once here but isn’t anyone concerned with Donaldsons 08 before he was traded? I am. Why did he need a change so bad?
by skalordes on Oct 8, 2009 11:07 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Being 23 and sitting out a year is different from being 22
There are physical differences in body chemistry that make 23-year-olds better at baseball, as a class, than 22-year-olds.
The average physical peak for human male* athletic ability is about age 24-25 . (The performance peak for baseball is later than that because of experience, which I agree [see the Desme thread] that Desme lacks, thus the reason why he should not get the full ARL punishment but rather a reduced punishment.) Every year someone is closer to that age is a physical advantage over younger players.
It’s actually interesting to see what the peak ages are in different sports, because it gives you a sense of how much of the sport is experience and how much is pure athleticism. Basketball players peak earlier than baseball players. Biathletes peak much later (in their early 30s) because that sport is a combination of super-fine technique (which requires tons of experience) and endurance, a skill which tends to develop later than quick-twitch athleticism.
Someone’s going to ask about football too, but football is a funny case because it’s such a brutal sport that on average, players’ bodies start breaking down even before they hit peak athleticism at 24-25.
*Substantially lower for women— it’s about 20-22 I think. Not quite as sure on that one.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Everyone is different. The difference between 22 and 23 is very minimal. I would agree with you if it was the difference between like 18 and 22. I remember reading that Mauer grew 4 inches at 24(it gave me hope to grow.) Or how in the little league ws this year there was that kid who was 6’2.
by skalordes on Oct 9, 2009 1:47 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Barry Bonds kept growing into his early 40's!
True story, I remember I was listening to a Giants game in the car with Kruk and Kuip doing a postgame show. And Krukow said something along the lines of “Barry is 6’2”, 6’3", hell he might still be growing….(awkward silence, hosts realize the whole steroids thing), anyways….great win for the Giants, huh Kuip?"
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
One of my friends met him and asked “Damn. Barry what size hat are you?!” He told him to f off.
by skalordes on Oct 9, 2009 1:57 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I think I am gong to start shrinking the poll down to 6 or so in the next few votes
The reason why I was adverse to having so many options on the board, like last year, was because too many options tend to confuse people. It leads to the “who do I recognize” rather than who is better.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
On the topic of run-off elections
I will have run-off elections between candidates, but it will be much like last year. It will be when the candidates are very, very close, and as I believe happened last year, no one will really object to a run off when the results this close.
This is a lot of the reason why I am also trying to keep the poll options limited. A poll with 5 or 6 options compared to 8 or even as many as 12 as people have suggested will have less opportunity for runoffs. I am making an educated guess/recommendation for who to vote for, and giving everyone the opportunity to suggest players that should be added and should be taken off. As of now, I do not think anyone has any objection to anyone on the current list. I am going to go with reccomendations for adds and offs more this year, because I do not feel that last year’s lowest vote getters being taken off system worked as well as I liked.
And keep up the Cases for Players, guys! As you can see, it definently helped stir conversation and get people aware of Donaldson and Desme. Perhaps someone would like to do one for Brown as a rebuttal to Desme, for example? Does someone want to enlighten us about Mickey Storey? That Sean Doolittle should be remembered? What people should think about Tyson Ross?
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:-P
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i hope my Desme profile helped with that. I’ve hitched to his wagon.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Well at least I have someone to blame :-P
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
